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Optimal Ordering Strategy and Budget Allocation for the COVID-19 Vaccination Planning COVID-19 疫苗接种规划的最佳订购策略和预算分配
IF 2.2 4区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-02-11 DOI: 10.1051/mmnp/2024002
Xueping Liu, Sheng Zhu, Jinting Wang
Abstract. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the most important thing was to control the overall infection rate. To achieve this goal, social managers can choose to use vaccines with different production cycles and therapeutic effects for epidemic prevention and control under financial budget constraints. We adopt a two-tier queueing system with reneging to characterize the operation management of COVID19 vaccine ordering and vaccination, in which a higher-efficacy vaccine queue (HQ) and a lower-efficacy vaccine queue (LQ) are employed to account for two types of vaccines service. In light of this framework, a recursive formula is proposed for deriving the infection rates of residents in both HQ and LQ. Social managers can achieve the lowest total infection rate by selecting appropriate vaccine ordering strategies under fixed service capacity, or by allocating financial budgets reasonably under the investment cost regime. Accordingly, we obtain socially optimal vaccine ordering strategies and financial budget allocation. Finally, we analyze the sensitivity of various parameters to relevant optimal strategies and discover that utilizing a mixed ordering strategy is socially optimal in most circumstances. However, in some extreme cases, ordering a single type of vaccine (higher- or lower-efficacy) may result in the lowest societal infection rate.
摘要在 COVID-19 大流行期间,最重要的是控制总体感染率。为了实现这一目标,社会管理者可以在财政预算约束下选择使用不同生产周期和治疗效果的疫苗进行疫情防控。我们采用了一个带反悔的双层排队系统来描述 COVID19 疫苗订购和接种的运行管理,其中高效力疫苗队列(HQ)和低效力疫苗队列(LQ)分别代表两种疫苗服务。根据这一框架,提出了一个递归公式,用于推导 HQ 和 LQ 中居民的感染率。社会管理者可以在固定服务能力下选择合适的疫苗订购策略,或在投资成本制度下合理分配财政预算,从而实现最低的总感染率。因此,我们得到了社会最优的疫苗订购策略和财政预算分配。最后,我们分析了各种参数对相关最优策略的敏感性,发现在大多数情况下,采用混合订购策略是社会最优策略。然而,在某些极端情况下,订购单一类型的疫苗(高效力或低效力)可能会使社会感染率最低。
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引用次数: 0
Optimal Ordering Strategy and Budget Allocation for the COVID-19 Vaccination Planning COVID-19 疫苗接种规划的最佳订购策略和预算分配
IF 2.2 4区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2024-02-11 DOI: 10.1051/mmnp/2024002
Xueping Liu, Sheng Zhu, Jinting Wang
Abstract. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the most important thing was to control the overall infection rate. To achieve this goal, social managers can choose to use vaccines with different production cycles and therapeutic effects for epidemic prevention and control under financial budget constraints. We adopt a two-tier queueing system with reneging to characterize the operation management of COVID19 vaccine ordering and vaccination, in which a higher-efficacy vaccine queue (HQ) and a lower-efficacy vaccine queue (LQ) are employed to account for two types of vaccines service. In light of this framework, a recursive formula is proposed for deriving the infection rates of residents in both HQ and LQ. Social managers can achieve the lowest total infection rate by selecting appropriate vaccine ordering strategies under fixed service capacity, or by allocating financial budgets reasonably under the investment cost regime. Accordingly, we obtain socially optimal vaccine ordering strategies and financial budget allocation. Finally, we analyze the sensitivity of various parameters to relevant optimal strategies and discover that utilizing a mixed ordering strategy is socially optimal in most circumstances. However, in some extreme cases, ordering a single type of vaccine (higher- or lower-efficacy) may result in the lowest societal infection rate.
摘要在 COVID-19 大流行期间,最重要的是控制总体感染率。为了实现这一目标,社会管理者可以在财政预算约束下选择使用不同生产周期和治疗效果的疫苗进行疫情防控。我们采用了一个带反悔的双层排队系统来描述 COVID19 疫苗订购和接种的运行管理,其中高效力疫苗队列(HQ)和低效力疫苗队列(LQ)分别代表两种疫苗服务。根据这一框架,提出了一个递归公式,用于推导 HQ 和 LQ 中居民的感染率。社会管理者可以在固定服务能力下选择合适的疫苗订购策略,或在投资成本制度下合理分配财政预算,从而实现最低的总感染率。因此,我们得到了社会最优的疫苗订购策略和财政预算分配。最后,我们分析了各种参数对相关最优策略的敏感性,发现在大多数情况下,采用混合订购策略是社会最优策略。然而,在某些极端情况下,订购单一类型的疫苗(高效力或低效力)可能会使社会感染率最低。
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引用次数: 0
Nitric oxide transport in carotid bifurcation after different stent interventions: a numerical study 不同支架介入后颈动脉分叉处的一氧化氮运输:一项数值研究
IF 2.2 4区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-11-29 DOI: 10.1051/mmnp/2023039
Zhenmin Fan, Jiangliang Yao, Jianda Xu, Xiao Liu, Mingyuan Liu, Xia Ye, Xiaoyan Deng
Stent restenosis and late thrombosis compromise endovascular stent implantation clinical benefit, and the mechanism is unclear. Since nitric oxide (NO) plays a pivotal role in maintaining vascular homeostasis, we believe that stenting can affect NO concentration in the host artery, thereby contributing to postoperative adverse events. We numerically investigated NO concentration after stenting based on the patient-specific carotid to verify this hypothesis. The simulation revealed that stent implantation caused blood flow disturbance, a low wall shear stress, and a significant decrease in NO on the luminal surface, especially in the region of the stented segment. Moreover, severe damage to the artery wall or low blood flow, leading to a low NO generation rate, would induce relatively low NO level in the stented segment. Additionally, we demonstrated that NO distribution might be affected by the combination of stent struts and carotid bifurcation geometry, while the host arterial configuration might play a leading role in the distribution of NO concentration. In conclusion, the carotid artery had a relatively low NO concentration level near stent struts, especially at the severely injured artery, low blood flow, long stenting, and complex host artery which might lead to a genesis/development of adverse events after that intervention.
支架再狭窄和晚期血栓形成损害了血管内支架植入术的临床疗效,其机制尚不清楚。由于一氧化氮(NO)在维持血管稳态中起着关键作用,我们认为支架植入术会影响宿主动脉中的一氧化氮浓度,从而导致术后不良事件的发生。为了验证这一假设,我们基于患者特异性颈动脉对支架植入后的 NO 浓度进行了数值研究。模拟结果显示,支架植入导致血流紊乱、管壁剪应力降低,管腔表面的 NO 显著减少,尤其是在支架段区域。此外,动脉壁的严重破坏或低血流量导致 NO 生成率低,也会引起支架区段的 NO 水平相对较低。此外,我们还证明,NO 的分布可能会受到支架支柱和颈动脉分叉几何形状组合的影响,而宿主动脉的构造可能会在 NO 浓度的分布中起主导作用。总之,颈动脉支架支柱附近的 NO 浓度水平相对较低,尤其是在严重损伤的动脉、低血流量、长支架和复杂的宿主动脉处,这可能会导致介入治疗后不良事件的发生/发展。
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引用次数: 0
COMBINED HORMONE AND BRACHY THERAPIES FOR THE TREATMENT OF PROSTATE CANCER 治疗前列腺癌的荷尔蒙和支架联合疗法
IF 2.2 4区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-11-17 DOI: 10.1051/mmnp/2023038
S. Chabbar, A. Habbal, R. Aboulaich, Nabil Ismaili, Sanaa El Majjaoui
Prostate cancer is a hormone-dependent cancer characterized by two types of cancer cells, androgen-dependent cancer cells and androgen-resistant ones. The objective of this paper is to present a novel mathematical model for the treatment of prostate cancer under combined hormone therapy and brachytherapy. Using a system of partial differential equations, we quantify and study the evolution of the different cell densities involved in prostate cancer and their responses to the two treatments. Numerical simulations of tumor growth under different therapeutic strategies are explored and presented. The numerical simulations are carried out on FreeFem++ using a 2D finite element method.
前列腺癌是一种激素依赖性癌症,其特点是有两种癌细胞,即雄激素依赖性癌细胞和雄激素抵抗性癌细胞。本文旨在提出一种新的数学模型,用于激素疗法和近距离放疗联合治疗前列腺癌。通过偏微分方程系统,我们量化并研究了前列腺癌中不同细胞密度的演变及其对两种疗法的反应。我们探索并展示了不同治疗策略下肿瘤生长的数值模拟。数值模拟是在 FreeFem++ 上使用二维有限元方法进行的。
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引用次数: 0
Thermodynamical Modeling of Multiphase Flow System with Surface Tension and Flow 考虑表面张力和流动的多相流系统的热力学建模
4区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-10-24 DOI: 10.1051/mmnp/2023036
Hajime Koba
We consider the governing equations for the motion of the viscous fluids in two moving domains and an evolving surface from both energetic and thermodynamic points of view. We make mathematical models for multiphase flow with surface flow by our energetic variational and thermodynamic approaches. More precisely, we apply our energy densities, the first law of thermodynamics, and the law of conservation of total energy to derive our multiphase flow system with surface tension and flow. We study the conservative forms and conservation laws of our system by using the surface transport theorem and integration by parts. Moreover, we investigate the enthalpy, the entropy, the Helmholtz free energy, and the Gibbs free energy of our model by applying the thermodynamic identity. The key idea of deriving surface tension and viscosities is to make use of both the first law of thermodynamics and our energy densities.
我们从能量和热力学的角度考虑了粘性流体在两个运动域和一个演化表面上运动的控制方程。本文采用能量变分法和热力学方法建立了多相流的表面流数学模型。更准确地说,我们应用能量密度、热力学第一定律和总能量守恒定律推导出具有表面张力和流动的多相流系统。利用表面输运定理和分部积分法研究了系统的守恒形式和守恒定律。此外,我们利用热力学恒等式研究了模型的焓、熵、亥姆霍兹自由能和吉布斯自由能。推导表面张力和粘度的关键思想是同时利用热力学第一定律和我们的能量密度。
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引用次数: 0
On the epidemiological evolution of colistin-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii in the city of Valencia: an agent-based modelling approach 关于巴伦西亚市耐粘菌素鲍曼不动杆菌的流行病学演变:基于代理的建模方法
4区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-10-24 DOI: 10.1051/mmnp/2023037
Juan A. Aledo, Carlos Andreu-Vilarroig, Juan-Carlos Cortés, Juan C. Orengo, Rafael-Jacinto Villanueva
Antibiotic resistance is one of the greatest public health threats today, mainly due to the non-rational use of antibiotics. Some of these microorganisms, such as Acinetobacter baumannii, which are especially problematic in hospitals, have rapidly developed resistance and only a few last-resort antibiotics, such as colistin, are effective against them. In this work we propose a random agent-based model to describe the evolution of colistin-resistant A. baumannii in the population of Valencia city (Spain) and to predict its impact both on the whole population and by age groups. The model consists of a synthetic population whose agents evolve over time by changing their state variables randomly, based on a set of conditional probabilities, simulating the pathogen infection process. The model has been calibrated with real epidemiological data and, with the best parameters found, simulations and predictions about the incidence and the absolute cases of colistin-resistan A. baumannii have been carried out for the coming years. Results suggest that the evolution of the proportion of resistance will be exponential, exceeding 50% around 2025, and it will affect people over 60 years old more severely in terms of the number of cases.
抗生素耐药性是当今最大的公共卫生威胁之一,主要是由于抗生素的不合理使用。其中一些微生物,如鲍曼不动杆菌(Acinetobacter baumannii),在医院尤其成问题,已迅速产生耐药性,只有少数最后的抗生素,如粘菌素,对它们有效。在这项工作中,我们提出了一个基于随机代理的模型来描述巴伦西亚市(西班牙)人群中耐粘菌素鲍曼不均匀杆菌的进化,并预测其对整个人群和年龄组的影响。该模型由一个合成群体组成,该群体的主体基于一组条件概率,通过随机改变状态变量,模拟病原体感染过程,随着时间的推移而进化。该模型已根据真实的流行病学数据进行了校准,并根据所发现的最佳参数,对未来几年耐粘菌素鲍曼不动杆菌的发病率和绝对病例进行了模拟和预测。结果提示,耐药比例呈指数级演变,2025年前后将超过50%,60岁以上人群受感染病例数更为严重。
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引用次数: 0
Influence of the age structure on the stability in a tumor-immune model for chronic myeloid leukemia 年龄结构对慢性髓系白血病肿瘤免疫模型稳定性的影响
4区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-10-18 DOI: 10.1051/mmnp/2023034
Kyriaki Dariva, Thomas Lepoutre
In this paper a model of tumor-immune response for chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) is proposed and analyzed. It is based on the ordinary differential equations' models (ODE) studied in former works. The proliferation of cells, their differentiation in the bone marrow and the interactions of leukemic and immune cells are described. The model is based on a non-monotonic immune response. At low levels immune response increases with the tumor load, whereas at high levels tumor is suppressing the effect of the immune system (immunosuppression). We consider that the age of cells is described by a continuous variable which we use to structure the system and obtain a partial differential equations' model (PDEs). We analyze the stability of the equilibrium points of the model and compare it to the case where age was described as a discrete state. In particular, an equilibrium point describing remission, induced by a control of the immune system, is shown to be unstable in certain situations for the PDE model, whereas in the ODE case, it was systematically stable.
本文提出并分析了慢性髓性白血病(CML)的肿瘤免疫反应模型。它是在前人研究的常微分方程模型(ODE)的基础上建立的。描述了骨髓细胞的增殖、分化以及白血病细胞和免疫细胞的相互作用。该模型基于非单调免疫反应。在低水平时,免疫反应随着肿瘤负荷的增加而增加,而在高水平时,肿瘤抑制免疫系统的作用(免疫抑制)。我们认为细胞的年龄是由一个连续变量来描述的,我们用它来构造系统并得到一个偏微分方程模型(PDEs)。我们分析了模型平衡点的稳定性,并将其与年龄被描述为离散状态的情况进行了比较。特别是,描述由免疫系统控制引起的缓解的平衡点在PDE模型的某些情况下是不稳定的,而在ODE的情况下,它是系统稳定的。
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引用次数: 0
Q-well-posedness of an A$beta$-protein polymerization model A$ β $-蛋白聚合模型的q -适定性
4区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-09-26 DOI: 10.1051/mmnp/2023028
Léon Matar Tine, Cheikh Gueye, Laurent Pujo-Menjouet, Sorin Ionel Ciuperca
Abstract. In this work, we consider a Becker-Döring-like mathematical interaction model between Aβ-monomers and Aβ proto-oligomers playing an important role in Alzheimer’s disease. In this context, the clustering process where two or more Aβ-monomers spontaneously aggregate and form a seed of proto-oligomers is highlighted. We prove the quadratic well-posedness [4] of the problem associated with the estimation of clustering rate µ from measured data at different times.
摘要在这项工作中,我们考虑了在阿尔茨海默病中发挥重要作用的a β-单体和a β原低聚物之间的Becker-Döring-like数学相互作用模型。在这种情况下,两个或多个a β单体自发聚集并形成原低聚物种子的聚类过程被强调。我们证明了从不同时刻的实测数据估计聚类率μ的问题的二次适定性[4]。
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引用次数: 0
TRAVELING WAVES IN HEMODYNAMIC EQUATIONS WITH THE KOITER SHELL 含koiter壳的血流动力学方程中的行波
4区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-09-25 DOI: 10.1051/mmnp/2023032
Sergey Vasyutkin, Alexander Chupakhin
We consider a one-dimensional model of hemodynamics for a tube defined by a Koiter shell, and investigate traveling wave solutions. The system of partial differential equations is reduced to a fourth-order ordinary differential equation for such solutions. We find a single equilibrium point and determine the condition for the changing type of the equilibria for the corresponding system of first-order differential equations. The conditions for changing the type of the equilibrium point are formulated. Then we introduce the classification of blood flow regimes relative to the type of the equilibrium point. Numerical experiments are carried out to confirm and analyze the obtained results, various regimes of blood flow are considered.
我们考虑了一个由Koiter壳定义的管的一维血流动力学模型,并研究了行波解。对于这样的解,偏微分方程组被简化为一个四阶常微分方程。我们找到了一个单一的平衡点,并确定了相应的一阶微分方程系统的平衡点变化类型的条件。给出了改变平衡点类型的条件。然后,我们介绍了相对于平衡点类型的血流机制的分类。数值实验对所得结果进行了验证和分析,并考虑了不同的血流状态。
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引用次数: 0
A model for seagrass species competition: dynamics of the symmetric case. 海草物种竞争模型:对称情况下的动力学。
4区 数学 Q1 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-09-22 DOI: 10.1051/mmnp/2023033
Pablo Moreno-Spiegelberg, Damià Gomila
We propose a general population dynamics model for two seagrass species growing and interacting in two spatial dimensions. The model includes spatial terms accounting for the clonal growth characteristics of seagrasses, and coupling between species through the net mortality rate. We consider both intraspecies and interspecies facilitative and competitive interactions, allowing density-dependent interaction mechanisms. Here we study the case of very similar species with reciprocal interactions, which allows reducing the number of the model parameters to just four, and whose bifurcation structure can be considered the backbone of the complete system. We find that the parameter space can be divided into ten regions with qualitatively different bifurcation diagrams. These regimes can be further grouped into just five regimes with different ecological interpretations. Our analysis allows the classification of all possible density distributions and dynamical behaviors of meadows with two coexisting species.
本文提出了两种海草在两个空间维度上生长和相互作用的一般种群动态模型。该模型包括海草克隆生长特征的空间项,以及物种间通过净死亡率的耦合。我们考虑了种内和种间的促进和竞争相互作用,允许密度依赖的相互作用机制。在这里,我们研究了具有互反相互作用的非常相似的物种的情况,这允许将模型参数的数量减少到只有四个,并且其分岔结构可以被认为是整个系统的骨干。我们发现参数空间可以被划分为十个具有不同质分岔图的区域。这些制度可以进一步分为五种制度,具有不同的生态解释。我们的分析允许分类所有可能的密度分布和两种共存的草甸的动态行为。
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引用次数: 0
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Mathematical Modelling of Natural Phenomena
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