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Inference on Average Treatment Effect under Minimization and Other Covariate-Adaptive Randomization Methods 最小化和其他协变量自适应随机化方法下平均治疗效果的推论
Pub Date : 2020-07-19 DOI: 10.1093/BIOMET/ASAB015
T. Ye, Yanyao Yi, J. Shao
Covariate-adaptive randomization schemes such as the minimization and stratified permuted blocks are often applied in clinical trials to balance treatment assignments across prognostic factors. The existing theoretical developments on inference after covariate-adaptive randomization are mostly limited to situations where a correct model between the response and covariates can be specified or the randomization method has well-understood properties. Based on stratification with covariate levels utilized in randomization and a further adjusting for covariates not used in randomization, in this article we propose several estimators for model free inference on average treatment effect defined as the difference between response means under two treatments. We establish asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators under all popular covariate-adaptive randomization schemes including the minimization whose theoretical property is unclear, and we show that the asymptotic distributions are invariant with respect to covariate-adaptive randomization methods. Consistent variance estimators are constructed for asymptotic inference. Asymptotic relative efficiencies and finite sample properties of estimators are also studied. We recommend using one of our proposed estimators for valid and model free inference after covariate-adaptive randomization.
协变量自适应随机化方案,如最小化和分层排列块,经常应用于临床试验中,以平衡预后因素之间的治疗分配。现有的关于协变量自适应随机化后推理的理论发展,大多局限于响应与协变量之间可以确定正确的模型,或者随机化方法具有很好理解的性质。基于随机化中使用协变量水平的分层和对随机化中未使用的协变量的进一步调整,在本文中,我们提出了几个估计量,用于对平均治疗效果的无模型推断,平均治疗效果定义为两种治疗下反应均值之间的差异。我们在所有流行的协变量自适应随机化方案下建立了所提估计量的渐近正态性,包括理论性质尚不清楚的最小化方案,并证明了这些估计量的渐近分布对于协变量自适应随机化方法是不变的。对渐近推理构造了一致方差估计量。研究了估计量的渐近相对效率和有限样本性质。我们建议在协变量自适应随机化后使用我们提出的一个估计器进行有效的和无模型的推理。
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引用次数: 23
Surprise sampling: Improving and extending the local case-control sampling 惊喜抽样:改进和推广局部病例对照抽样
Pub Date : 2020-07-06 DOI: 10.1214/21-EJS1844
Xinwei Shen, Kani Chen, Wen Yu
Fithian and Hastie (2014) proposed a new sampling scheme called local case-control (LCC) sampling that achieves stability and efficiency by utilizing a clever adjustment pertained to the logistic model. It is particularly useful for classification with large and imbalanced data. This paper proposes a more general sampling scheme based on a working principle that data points deserve higher sampling probability if they contain more information or appear "surprising" in the sense of, for example, a large error of pilot prediction or a large absolute score. Compared with the relevant existing sampling schemes, as reported in Fithian and Hastie (2014) and Ai, et al. (2018), the proposed one has several advantages. It adaptively gives out the optimal forms to a variety of objectives, including the LCC and Ai et al. (2018)'s sampling as special cases. Under same model specifications, the proposed estimator also performs no worse than those in the literature. The estimation procedure is valid even if the model is misspecified and/or the pilot estimator is inconsistent or dependent on full data. We present theoretical justifications of the claimed advantages and optimality of the estimation and the sampling design. Different from Ai, et al. (2018), our large sample theory are population-wise rather than data-wise. Moreover, the proposed approach can be applied to unsupervised learning studies, since it essentially only requires a specific loss function and no response-covariate structure of data is needed. Numerical studies are carried out and the evidence in support of the theory is shown.
Fithian和Hastie(2014)提出了一种新的抽样方案,称为局部病例控制(LCC)抽样,通过利用与logistic模型相关的巧妙调整来实现稳定性和效率。它对于大型和不平衡数据的分类特别有用。本文提出了一种更通用的抽样方案,该方案基于一个工作原理,即如果数据点包含更多的信息,或者在先导预测误差大或绝对分数大的意义上出现“令人惊讶”,则数据点应该得到更高的抽样概率。与现有的相关抽样方案相比,Fithian和Hastie(2014)以及Ai等人(2018)的报告显示,本文提出的抽样方案具有几个优势。它自适应地给出了各种目标的最优形式,包括LCC和Ai等人(2018)的抽样作为特殊情况。在相同的模型规范下,所提出的估计器的性能也不比文献中的估计器差。即使模型被错误指定和/或先导估计不一致或依赖于全部数据,估计过程也是有效的。我们提出理论证明的优势和最优的估计和抽样设计。与Ai等人(2018)不同,我们的大样本理论是人口智慧而不是数据智慧。此外,所提出的方法可以应用于无监督学习研究,因为它本质上只需要一个特定的损失函数,不需要数据的响应协变量结构。并进行了数值研究,给出了支持该理论的证据。
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引用次数: 3
Parametric Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for the Multivariate Fay–Herriot Model 多元Fay-Herriot模型的参数自举置信区间
Pub Date : 2020-06-26 DOI: 10.1093/jssam/smaa038
Takumi Saegusa, S. Sugasawa, P. Lahiri
The multivariate Fay-Herriot model is quite effective in combining information through correlations among small area survey estimates of related variables or historical survey estimates of the same variable or both. Though the literature on small area estimation is already very rich, construction of second-order efficient confidence intervals from multivariate models have so far received very little attention. In this paper, we develop a parametric bootstrap method for constructing a second-order efficient confidence interval for a general linear combination of small area means using the multivariate Fay-Herriot normal model. The proposed parametric bootstrap method replaces difficult and tedious analytical derivations by the power of efficient algorithm and high speed computer. Moreover, the proposed method is more versatile than the analytical method because the parametric bootstrap method can be easily applied to any method of model parameter estimation and any specific structure of the variance-covariance matrix of the multivariate Fay-Herriot model avoiding all the cumbersome and time-consuming calculations required in the analytical method. We apply our proposed methodology in constructing confidence intervals for the median income of four-person families for the fifty states and the District of Columbia in the United States. Our data analysis demonstrates that the proposed parametric bootstrap method generally provides much shorter confidence intervals compared to the corresponding traditional direct method. Moreover, the confidence intervals obtained from the multivariate model is generally shorter than the corresponding univariate model indicating the potential advantage of exploiting correlations of median income of four-person families with median incomes of three and five person families.
多变量Fay-Herriot模型通过相关变量的小区域调查估计值或同一变量的历史调查估计值或两者之间的相关性来组合信息是非常有效的。虽然关于小面积估计的文献已经非常丰富,但是从多变量模型中构造二阶有效置信区间的研究迄今很少得到关注。本文利用多元Fay-Herriot正态模型,提出了一种参数自举法,用于构造一般小面积均值线性组合的二阶有效置信区间。所提出的参数自举法以高效的算法和高速计算机的力量取代了困难而繁琐的解析推导。此外,与解析法相比,参数自举法的通用性更强,因为参数自举法可以很容易地应用于任何模型参数估计方法和多元Fay-Herriot模型方差-协方差矩阵的任何特定结构,从而避免了解析法所需要的繁琐和耗时的计算。我们将我们提出的方法应用于构建美国五十个州和哥伦比亚特区四口之家收入中位数的置信区间。我们的数据分析表明,与传统的直接方法相比,所提出的参数自举方法通常提供更短的置信区间。此外,从多元模型中获得的置信区间通常比相应的单变量模型短,这表明利用四口之家的收入中位数与三口之家和五口之家的收入中位数之间的相关性具有潜在的优势。
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引用次数: 2
Goodness-of-fit Tests for Functional Linear Models Based on Integrated Projections 基于集成投影的功能线性模型的拟合优度检验
Pub Date : 2020-06-24 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-47756-1_15
Eduardo Garc'ia-Portugu'es, J. 'Alvarez-Li'ebana, G. 'Alvarez-P'erez, W. Gonz'alez-Manteiga
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引用次数: 4
A Robust Consistent Information Criterion for Model Selection based on Empirical Likelihood 基于经验似然的模型选择稳健一致信息准则
Pub Date : 2020-06-23 DOI: 10.5705/ss.202020.0254
Chixiang Chen, Ming Wang, R. Wu, Runze Li
Conventional likelihood-based information criteria for model selection rely on the distribution assumption of data. However, for complex data that are increasingly available in many scientific fields, the specification of their underlying distribution turns out to be challenging, and the existing criteria may be limited and are not general enough to handle a variety of model selection problems. Here, we propose a robust and consistent model selection criterion based upon the empirical likelihood function which is data-driven. In particular, this framework adopts plug-in estimators that can be achieved by solving external estimating equations, not limited to the empirical likelihood, which avoids potential computational convergence issues and allows versatile applications, such as generalized linear models, generalized estimating equations, penalized regressions and so on. The formulation of our proposed criterion is initially derived from the asymptotic expansion of the marginal likelihood under variable selection framework, but more importantly, the consistent model selection property is established under a general context. Extensive simulation studies confirm the out-performance of the proposal compared to traditional model selection criteria. Finally, an application to the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study illustrates the practical value of this proposed framework.
传统的基于似然的模型选择信息准则依赖于数据的分布假设。然而,对于在许多科学领域日益可用的复杂数据,其底层分布的规范变得具有挑战性,并且现有的标准可能受到限制并且不够通用,无法处理各种模型选择问题。在此,我们提出了一个基于数据驱动的经验似然函数的稳健一致的模型选择准则。特别是,该框架采用了可以通过求解外部估计方程来实现的插件估计器,而不局限于经验似然,这避免了潜在的计算收敛问题,并允许多种应用,如广义线性模型,广义估计方程,惩罚回归等。我们提出的准则的公式最初是在变量选择框架下边际似然的渐近展开,但更重要的是,在一般情况下建立了一致的模型选择性质。大量的仿真研究证实了与传统的模型选择标准相比,该建议的性能优于传统的模型选择标准。最后,在社区动脉粥样硬化风险研究中的应用说明了该框架的实用价值。
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引用次数: 3
Multicarving for high-dimensional post-selection inference 高维选择后推理的多重分割
Pub Date : 2020-06-08 DOI: 10.1214/21-EJS1825
Christoph Schultheiss, Claude Renaux, Peter Buhlmann
We consider post-selection inference for high-dimensional (generalized) linear models. Data carving (Fithian et al., 2014) is a promising technique to perform this task. However, it suffers from the instability of the model selector and hence may lead to poor replicability, especially in high-dimensional settings. We propose the multicarve method inspired by multisplitting, to improve upon stability and replicability. Furthermore, we extend existing concepts to group inference and illustrate the applicability of the methodology also for generalized linear models.
我们考虑高维(广义)线性模型的后选择推理。数据雕刻(Fithian et al., 2014)是执行此任务的一种有前途的技术。然而,它受到模型选择器的不稳定性的影响,因此可能导致较差的可复制性,特别是在高维设置中。我们提出了受多重分裂启发的多重曲线方法,以提高稳定性和可复制性。此外,我们将现有的概念扩展到群推理,并说明该方法也适用于广义线性模型。
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引用次数: 12
Synthetic control method with convex hull restrictions: a Bayesian maximum a posteriori approach 具有凸壳约束的综合控制方法:贝叶斯极大后验方法
Pub Date : 2020-05-28 DOI: 10.1093/ECTJ/UTAB015
Gyuhyeong Goh, Jisang Yu
Synthetic control methods have gained popularity among causal studies with observational data, particularly when estimating the impacts of the interventions that are implemented to a small number of large units. Implementing the synthetic control methods faces two major challenges: a) estimating weights for each control unit to create a synthetic control and b) providing statistical inferences. To overcome these challenges, we propose a Bayesian framework that implements the synthetic control method with the parallelly shiftable convex hull and provides a useful Bayesian inference, which is drawn from the duality between a penalized least squares method and a Bayesian Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) approach. Simulation results indicate that the proposed method leads to smaller biases compared to alternatives. We apply our Bayesian method to the real data example of Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003) and find that the treatment effects are statistically significant during the subset of the post-treatment period.
综合控制方法在具有观察数据的因果研究中越来越受欢迎,特别是在估计对少数大单位实施的干预措施的影响时。实现综合控制方法面临两个主要挑战:a)估计每个控制单元的权重以创建综合控制;b)提供统计推断。为了克服这些挑战,我们提出了一个贝叶斯框架,该框架实现了具有并行可移动凸壳的综合控制方法,并提供了一个有用的贝叶斯推理,该推理来自惩罚最小二乘法和贝叶斯最大后验(MAP)方法之间的对偶性。仿真结果表明,与其他方法相比,该方法的偏差较小。我们将贝叶斯方法应用到Abadie和Gardeazabal(2003)的真实数据示例中,发现治疗效果在治疗后时期的子集中具有统计学意义。
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引用次数: 1
Bayesian Joint Models for Longitudinal and Survival Data 纵向和生存数据的贝叶斯联合模型
Pub Date : 2020-05-26 DOI: 10.1002/9781118445112.STAT08129
C. Armero
This paper takes a quick look at Bayesian joint models (BJM) for longitudinal and survival data. A general formulation for BJM is examined in terms of the sampling distribution of the longitudinal and survival processes, the conditional distribution of the random effects and the prior distribution. Next a basic BJM defined in terms of a mixed linear model and a Cox survival regression models is discussed and some extensions and other Bayesian topics are briefly outlined.
本文简要介绍了贝叶斯联合模型(BJM)的纵向和生存数据。从纵向和生存过程的抽样分布、随机效应的条件分布和先验分布等方面考察了BJM的一般公式。接下来,讨论了基于混合线性模型和Cox生存回归模型定义的基本BJM,并简要概述了一些扩展和其他贝叶斯主题。
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引用次数: 1
Empirical likelihood inference with public-use survey data 基于公共调查数据的实证似然推断
Pub Date : 2020-05-25 DOI: 10.1214/20-ejs1726
Puying Zhao, J. Rao, Changbao Wu
Public-use survey data are an important source of information for researchers in social science and health studies to build statistical models and make inferences on the target finite population. This paper presents two general inferential tools through the pseudo empirical likelihood and the sample empirical likelihood methods. Theoretical results on point estimation and linear or nonlinear hypothesis tests involving parameters defined through estimating equations are established, and practical issues with the implementation of the proposed methods are discussed. Results from simulation studies and an application to the 2016 General Social Survey dataset of Statistics Canada show that the proposed methods work well under different scenarios. The inferential procedures and theoretical results presented in the paper make the empirical likelihood a practically useful tool for users of complex survey data.
公共调查数据是社会科学和卫生研究人员建立统计模型和对目标有限人群进行推断的重要信息来源。本文通过伪经验似然法和样本经验似然法介绍了两种通用的推理工具。建立了点估计和由估计方程定义参数的线性或非线性假设检验的理论结果,并讨论了实现所提出方法的实际问题。模拟研究和对加拿大统计局2016年综合社会调查数据集的应用结果表明,所提出的方法在不同情况下都能很好地工作。本文提出的推论程序和理论结果使经验似然成为复杂调查数据使用者的实用工具。
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引用次数: 3
The Semi-Hierarchical Dirichlet Process and Its Application to Clustering Homogeneous Distributions 半层次Dirichlet过程及其在聚类均匀分布中的应用
Pub Date : 2020-05-20 DOI: 10.1214/21-ba1278
Mario Beraha, A. Guglielmi, F. Quintana
Assessing homogeneity of distributions is an old problem that has received considerable attention, especially in the nonparametric Bayesian literature. To this effect, we propose the semi-hierarchical Dirichlet process, a novel hierarchical prior that extends the hierarchical Dirichlet process of Teh et al. (2006) and that avoids the degeneracy issues of nested processes recently described by Camerlenghi et al. (2019a). We go beyond the simple yes/no answer to the homogeneity question and embed the proposed prior in a random partition model; this procedure allows us to give a more comprehensive response to the above question and in fact find groups of populations that are internally homogeneous when I greater or equal than 2 such populations are considered. We study theoretical properties of the semi-hierarchical Dirichlet process and of the Bayes factor for the homogeneity test when I = 2. Extensive simulation studies and applications to educational data are also discussed.
评估分布的均匀性是一个受到相当关注的老问题,特别是在非参数贝叶斯文献中。为此,我们提出了半分层狄利克雷过程,这是一种新的分层先验,它扩展了Teh等人(2006)的分层狄利克雷过程,并避免了Camerlenghi等人(2019a)最近描述的嵌套过程的退化问题。我们超越了对同质性问题的简单回答是/否,并将提出的先验嵌入到随机划分模型中;这个过程允许我们对上面的问题给出一个更全面的回答,事实上,当我大于或等于2个这样的群体时,我们可以找到内部同质的群体。研究了当I = 2时,半层次Dirichlet过程和贝叶斯因子的齐性检验的理论性质。还讨论了广泛的仿真研究及其在教育数据中的应用。
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引用次数: 15
期刊
arXiv: Methodology
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