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Achievements and Challenges: 30 Years of Housing Reforms in the People’s Republic of China 成就与挑战:中华人民共和国住房改革30年
Pub Date : 2010-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1619161
Lu Gao
In the last three decades, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has managed to replace its welfare-based urban housing system with a market-based housing provision scheme. With such significant housing policy changes, the PRC has successfully expanded urban home ownership and impressively increased per capita housing consumption. The housing market has become one of the major pillar industries in the country’s economic boom. However, affordable housing development has been greatly lagging behind the ever-increasing housing needs of a large lower-income population in the country, while housing price bubbles cast a shadow on sustainable economic development in the PRC. The main reasons for such challenges include the inefficiency of financial tools to regulate the housing market; and the discrete interests among the central government, local governments, and real estate developers. Within the context of the ongoing global financial crisis, it is even more critical to balance the PRC’s housing development, both to address the people’s housing needs, and to maintain sustainable growth.
在过去的三十年里,中华人民共和国成功地将以福利为基础的城市住房制度转变为以市场为基础的住房供应计划。通过这些重大的住房政策变化,中国成功地扩大了城市住房拥有率,并显著提高了人均住房消费。房地产市场已经成为国家经济繁荣的主要支柱产业之一。然而,经济适用房的发展远远落后于该国大量低收入人口不断增长的住房需求,而房价泡沫给中国的可持续经济发展蒙上了阴影。造成这些挑战的主要原因包括:监管房地产市场的金融工具效率低下;以及中央政府、地方政府和房地产开发商之间的分立利益。在全球金融危机持续的背景下,平衡中国的住房发展,既要满足人民的住房需求,又要保持可持续增长,就显得尤为重要。
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引用次数: 20
Anomaly in China's Dollar–RMB Forward Market 中国美元-人民币远期市场的异常现象
Pub Date : 2010-03-22 DOI: 10.1111/J.1749-124X.2010.01191.X
Y. Wang
Newly-established data on onshore deliverable US dollar–RMB forwards and the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate from October 2006 to April 2009 reveal significant violations of covered interest rate parity. This paper explains the cause of this anomaly. Deviations in the forward market are caused by an increase in US dollar-to-RMB conversion restrictions. Given that Chinese monetary authorities want to prevent market participants from taking advantage of the predictable appreciation of the RMB, China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange has to tighten up the control on US dollar-to-RMB conversions. Under the tightened conversion restrictions, similar deviations will resurface in the forward market whenever hot money inflow increases. One way to avoid covered interest rate parity violations in the forward market is to decrease hot money inflow into China by maintaining a stable and credible exchange rate policy.
2006年10月至2009年4月的最新数据显示,在岸可交割美元兑人民币远期和上海银行同业拆放利率存在严重违规行为。本文解释了这种异常的原因。远期市场的偏差是由美元兑人民币兑换限制的增加引起的。鉴于中国货币当局希望防止市场参与者利用可预测的人民币升值,中国国家外汇管理局不得不加强对美元兑人民币兑换的控制。在兑换限制收紧的情况下,只要热钱流入增加,类似的偏差就会在远期市场重现。避免远期市场违反利率平价的一个方法是,通过维持稳定和可信的汇率政策,减少热钱流入中国。
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引用次数: 10
Multi Objective Capital Structure Modelling: A Goal Programming Approach 多目标资本结构建模:一种目标规划方法
Pub Date : 2010-03-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1572689
K. Iyer, Surendra S. Yadav, Yamini Agarwal
Capital structure decisions have become complex in the changing business paradigm. The evaluation techniques used for capital structure decisions by the theories and models developed in the 1950s have lost their relevance due to changes over the years. Capital is still scarce despite financial liberalization and globalization. Business environment are exceedingly competitive. Stakeholders are awfully demanding. Survival and growth is restrained by competition. Decision maker's choice on capital structures is not restricted to debt and equity alone. Bankruptcy and distress risk go beyond on balance sheet items including off balance sheet exposures. In the light of this background the premise of a single objective for evaluating capital structure decision is questioned in this study. The study explores the multiple considerations followed by decision maker for capital structure decisions. The study investigates capital structure practices in the Indian industry through a sample of top 500 companies classified in 19 industries for a 10 year period (1998-2007) for 67 variables including the leverage variables. The spread of leverage ratio is also examined. The relationship of leverage ratios with market capitalization and EPS is also explored. Multi objective criteria for processing capital structure decisions is identified and justified based on the findings of the past researches and the empirical survey conducted as a part of this study. In the empirical survey, CFOs as respondents are investigated for their goals, priorities, motivations, constraints and practices for capital structure decision making. Goal Programming model was selected from different multi-objective optimization techniques. The model was found to be capable of providing satisficing solutions to multiple goals simultaneously by minimizing the deviation from the objective function after assuming that the decision maker is an optimist and does not attempt to satisfy all objectives fully. Goal Programming Model has been developed and illustrated for capital structure decisions under multiple objectives.
在不断变化的商业模式下,资本结构决策变得复杂起来。由于多年来的变化,20世纪50年代发展起来的理论和模型用于资本结构决策的评估技术已经失去了相关性。尽管金融自由化和全球化,资本仍然是稀缺的。商业环境竞争激烈。利益相关者的要求非常高。生存和成长受到竞争的制约。决策者对资本结构的选择不仅限于债务和股权。破产和窘迫风险超出了资产负债表上的项目,包括资产负债表外的风险敞口。在这种背景下,评估资本结构决策的单一目标的前提在本研究中受到质疑。本研究探讨了决策者在资本结构决策中所遵循的多重考虑因素。该研究通过对19个行业的500强公司进行10年(1998-2007)的样本调查了印度工业的资本结构实践,涉及67个变量,包括杠杆变量。并对杠杆率的扩散进行了分析。本文还探讨了杠杆率与市值和每股收益的关系。根据过去的研究结果和作为本研究一部分的实证调查,确定并证明了处理资本结构决策的多目标标准。在实证调查中,首席财务官作为受访者,对其资本结构决策的目标、优先事项、动机、约束和实践进行了调查。从不同的多目标优化技术中选择目标规划模型。在假设决策者是乐观主义者且不试图完全满足所有目标的前提下,该模型通过最小化与目标函数的偏差,能够同时为多个目标提供满意的解决方案。针对多目标下的资本结构决策,建立了目标规划模型并进行了说明。
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引用次数: 0
Credit and Economic Recovery: Demystifying Phoenix Miracles 信贷与经济复苏:揭开凤凰奇迹的神秘面纱
Pub Date : 2010-03-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1595980
M. Biggs, T. Mayer, A. Pick
This paper offers a solution to the puzzle that economic activity recovers after a financial crisis without a rebound in credit. These credit-less recoveries, known as "Phoenix Miracles", question the importance of credit. We argue that these recoveries appear credit-less because GDP is compared to the stock of credit. We show in a theoretical model that recoveries in GDP coincide with recoveries in the flow of credit and this can occur even as the stock of credit declines. Data from emerging and developed economies confirm this finding.
本文为金融危机后经济活动复苏而信贷没有反弹这一难题提供了一个解决方案。这些没有信贷的复苏,被称为“凤凰奇迹”,质疑了信贷的重要性。我们认为,这些复苏看起来信贷较少,因为GDP与信贷存量相比较。我们在一个理论模型中表明,GDP的复苏与信贷流动的复苏是一致的,即使在信贷存量下降的情况下,这种情况也会发生。来自新兴和发达经济体的数据证实了这一发现。
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引用次数: 48
Financial Liberalization, Structural Change, and Real Exchange Rate Appreciations 金融自由化、结构变化和实际汇率升值
Pub Date : 2010-03-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781451982077.001.A001
Carlos Urrutia, Felipe Meza
Abstract The last twenty years have witnessed periods of sustained appreciations of the real exchange rate in emerging economies. The case of Mexico between 1988 and 2002 is representative of several episodes in Latin America and Central and Eastern Europe in which countries opening to capital flows experienced large appreciations accompanied by a significant reallocation of workers towards the non-tradable sector. We account for these facts using a two sector dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy with frictions to labor reallocation and two driving forces: (i) A decline in the cost of borrowing in foreign markets, and (ii) differential productivity growth across sectors. These two mechanisms account together for 60% of the decline in the domestic relative price of tradables in Mexico and for a large fraction of the observed reallocation of labor across sectors. The decline in the interest rate faced by Mexico in international markets is quantitatively the most important channel. Our results are robust to the inclusion of terms of trade into the model.
在过去的20年里,新兴经济体的实际汇率出现了持续的升值。1988年至2002年期间墨西哥的情况代表了拉丁美洲和中欧及东欧的几个时期,在这些时期,对资本流动开放的国家经历了大幅升值,同时大量工人重新分配到非贸易部门。我们使用一个小型开放经济体的两部门动态一般均衡模型来解释这些事实,该模型存在劳动力再分配的摩擦和两种驱动力:(i)国外市场借贷成本的下降,以及(ii)部门间生产率的差异增长。这两种机制共同造成了墨西哥国内可贸易产品相对价格下降的60%,也造成了观察到的劳动力跨部门再分配的很大一部分。墨西哥在国际市场上面临的利率下降在数量上是最重要的渠道。我们的结果对于将贸易条件纳入模型是稳健的。
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引用次数: 23
Financial Fragmentation and Insider Arbitrage 金融碎片化与内幕套利
Pub Date : 2010-02-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1585141
Stefan Klonner, A. Rai
If there were no impediments to the flow of capital across space, then the returns to capital should be equalized. We provide evidence to the contrary. There are large differences in the return to comparable investments across different towns in the state of Tamil Nadu in South India. We explore why these differences are not arbitraged away - and suggest that if an insider has monopoly power in arbitraging across towns then it is in his profit-maximizing interest to reduce but not eliminate the di¤erences in returns to capital.
如果资本在空间间的流动没有障碍,那么资本的回报应该是相等的。我们提供了相反的证据。在印度南部泰米尔纳德邦的不同城镇,可比投资的回报存在很大差异。我们探讨了为什么这些差异没有被套利消除,并提出如果一个内部人士在跨城镇的套利中拥有垄断权力,那么减少而不是消除资本回报的差异符合他的利润最大化利益。
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引用次数: 2
Modelling Sukuk Structures in Indonesia: Economic Development and the Risk Management 印尼伊斯兰债券结构建模:经济发展与风险管理
Pub Date : 2010-02-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1742906
Roslina Mohamad Shafi, M. Redzuan
Indonesia is one of the emerging markets for the development of the Islamic finance securitization i.e. sukuk. Beyond that, there is much need to be done for the growth of the sukuk market. Being country abundance with the natural resources, idle land and cultivated area should be seen as an opportunity to turn it into the assets securitization. This indirectly would inject liquidation to the Indonesian economic, perhaps to achieve efficiency in the whole economic sectors. Thus, objectives of this paper are to propose equity based sukuk structures for agriculture projects. Besides, several issues pertaining to the risk management of the sukuk also will be discussed in this study. Risk management is vital to be conferring as this would affect the liquidity position of the sukuk. The developments of the model oblige close and undivided attention, solely to avoid conflict with the prevailing thinking of Muslim investors. In addition, comprehensive understandings on the risk from the Islamic perspectives need to be further explored. Otherwise the fundamental parts will be remains abstract.
印尼是伊斯兰金融证券化发展的新兴市场之一。除此之外,伊斯兰债券市场的增长还有很多需要做的事情。作为一个自然资源丰富的国家,闲置土地和耕地应被视为将其转化为资产证券化的契机。这将间接地为印度尼西亚经济注入清算,也许是为了在整个经济部门实现效率。因此,本文的目标是为农业项目提出基于股权的伊斯兰债券结构。此外,本研究也将讨论与伊斯兰债券风险管理有关的几个问题。风险管理对授予至关重要,因为这将影响伊斯兰债券的流动性状况。这种模式的发展需要密切而专心致志的关注,仅仅是为了避免与穆斯林投资者的主流思想发生冲突。此外,还需要进一步探索从伊斯兰的角度对风险的全面认识。否则,基本部分将仍然是抽象的。
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引用次数: 6
Financial Liberalisation and the South Korean Financial Crisis: An Analysis of Expert Opinion
Pub Date : 2010-02-01 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2009.01225.x
Kevin Amess, Panicos O. Demetriades
This paper provides a novel analysis of the South Korean financial crisis drawing on the findings of a unique survey of IMF/World Bank and South Korean experts. The survey reveals that over-optimism and inadequate recognition of financial risks inadvertently led to excessive risk-taking by Korean financial intermediaries. It also indicates that the sources of over-optimistic assessments of East Asian economies were mainly to be found outside East Asia and included the Bretton Woods Institutions themselves, Western media and analysts. In Korea, weaknesses in risk management were the result of (i) lack of expertise in relation to handling the risks associated with capital flows, and (ii) disincentives to manage risks emanating from a relatively successful history of government-provided safety nets for both industry and banking. Financial liberalisation widened risk-taking opportunities, by allowing Korean financial institutions to both borrow from and lend to institutions outside Korea. It also created additional disincentives for managing risk by intensifying competition and eroding bank franchise values. Weaknesses in prudential regulation allowed bank portfolios to become riskier, especially in terms of increased liquidity risk as a result of maturity mismatches between dollar-denominated assets and liabilities. The liquidity crisis, which followed the re-assessment of the South Korean economy by international lenders in late 1997, triggered a full-blown financial crisis because of the absence of an effective international lender of last resort.
本文根据国际货币基金组织/世界银行和韩国专家的一项独特调查的结果,对韩国金融危机进行了新颖的分析。调查显示,过度乐观和对金融风险认识不足无意中导致了韩国金融中介机构的过度冒险。报告还指出,对东亚经济过于乐观的评价主要来自东亚以外,包括布雷顿森林机构本身、西方媒体和分析人士。在韩国,风险管理的薄弱是由于(i)缺乏处理与资本流动相关的风险的专业知识,以及(ii)政府为工业和银行业提供的相对成功的安全网所产生的管理风险的抑制因素。金融自由化扩大了冒险的机会,允许韩国金融机构向韩国以外的机构借贷。它还加剧了竞争,侵蚀了银行的特许经营价值,从而对风险管理造成了额外的阻碍。审慎监管方面的弱点使得银行投资组合风险加大,尤其是美元计价资产与负债期限错配导致流动性风险增加。1997年底,国际贷款机构对韩国经济进行了重新评估,随后爆发了流动性危机。由于缺乏一个有效的国际最后贷款人,流动性危机引发了一场全面的金融危机。
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引用次数: 5
Current Account Balance Estimates for Emerging Market Economies 新兴市场经济体的经常项目平衡估计
Pub Date : 2010-02-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781451962994.001.A001
Leandro Medina, Jordi Prat, A. Thomas
This paper uses a modified version of the methodology used by the IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues (CGER) to calculate equilibrium current account balances (or ?norms?) for a sample of 33 emerging market economies. We find that the fundamental determinants of the equilibrium current account balances are similar to those identified by the CGER using a sample that also comprises advanced economies. However, the fiscal balance has a considerably stronger impact on current account norms for emerging markets. This paper also offers estimates for the equilibrium current account balances of eleven smaller emerging market economies that are not currently included in the country sample used by the CGER.
本文使用国际货币基金组织汇率问题咨询小组(CGER)用于计算33个新兴市场经济体样本的均衡经常账户余额(或“规范”)的方法的修改版本。我们发现,平衡经常账户余额的基本决定因素与CGER使用同样包括发达经济体的样本确定的基本决定因素相似。然而,财政平衡对新兴市场经常账户规范的影响要大得多。本文还提供了11个较小的新兴市场经济体的均衡经常账户余额的估计,这些经济体目前未包括在CGER使用的国家样本中。
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引用次数: 37
Why Do Researchers Collaborate with Industry? An Analysis of the Wine Sector in Chile, South Africa and Italy 为什么研究人员要与企业合作?智利、南非和意大利葡萄酒行业分析
Pub Date : 2009-12-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1526485
Roberta Rabellotti, E. Giuliani, C. Pietrobelli, A. Morrison
This paper explores the determinants of the linkages between industry and research organizations – including universities. We present new evidence on three wine producing areas – Piedmont, a region of Italy, Chile, South Africa - that have successfully reacted to the recent structural changes experienced in the industry worldwide. Based on an original dataset, we carry out an econometric exercise to study the microeconomic determinants of researchers’ collaborations with industry. The evidence reveals that individual researcher characteristics, such as embeddedness in the academic system, age and sex, matter more than their publishing record or formal degrees
本文探讨了工业和研究机构(包括大学)之间联系的决定因素。我们提出了三个葡萄酒产区的新证据-皮埃蒙特,意大利的一个地区,智利,南非-成功地应对了最近在世界范围内经历的行业结构变化。基于原始数据集,我们进行了计量经济学练习来研究研究人员与行业合作的微观经济决定因素。证据表明,研究人员的个人特征,如在学术体系中的嵌入程度、年龄和性别,比他们的出版记录或正式学位更重要
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引用次数: 23
期刊
INTL: Managing in Emerging Markets (Topic)
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