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Partial Privatisation in Banking: The Indonesian Experience 银行业的部分私有化:印尼的经验
Pub Date : 2010-08-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1662822
Yuli Rindyawati, C. Gordon
This paper aims to examine in-depth the events leading up to the partial privatisation in Indonesian State-Owned Banks (SOBs). The paper addresses the following questions: What is the meaning of ‘partial privatisation’ in the banking sector? How has partial privatisation of banking been carried out in Indonesia? What lessons can be learned about the strengths and weaknesses of partial privatisation as a method of reforming SOBs in developing economies?
本文旨在深入研究导致印尼国有银行部分私有化的事件。本文探讨了以下问题:银行业“部分私有化”的含义是什么?印尼银行业的部分私有化是如何进行的?作为发展中国家国有企业改革的一种方法,部分私有化的优缺点可以从中吸取哪些教训?
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引用次数: 0
Creating Value Beyond Microfinance Through Entrepreneurship Development 通过创业发展创造小额信贷以外的价值
Pub Date : 2010-08-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1652265
J. Matu, T. Kimani
This article looks at current microfinance practices in Kenya and some of the inherent challenges that hinder human development of microfinance clients beyond accessing financial services. As microfinance providers and supporters continue to promote the importance of improving access to financial services amongst micro and small business owners, they will need to augment their microfinance services with basic entrepreneurial training.
本文着眼于肯尼亚目前的小额信贷实践,以及在获得金融服务之外阻碍小额信贷客户人类发展的一些固有挑战。随着小额信贷提供者和支持者继续宣传改善微型和小型企业主获得金融服务的重要性,他们将需要通过基本的创业培训来扩大其小额信贷服务。
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引用次数: 2
Decentralisation in Africa and Fiscal Competition: Evidence from Benin 非洲权力下放与财政竞争:来自贝宁的证据
Pub Date : 2010-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1685905
Émilie Caldeira, Grégoire Rota-Graziosi, M. Foucault
Without denying particular dimensions of the decentralisation in Sub-Saharan countries, this paper applies standard reasoning from the fiscal federalism literature to a developing country and tests the existence of strategic interactions among local Beninese governments, called communes'. We first propose a two-jurisdiction model of public expenditure interactions, considering a constrained Nash equilibrium to capture the extreme poverty of some communes. We show that spillovers among jurisdictions involve strategic behaviours of local officials who have sufficient levels of fiscal resources. Second, by estimating a spatial lag model, our analysis provides evidence for the presence of strategic interactions in Benin, contingent on communes' fiscal autonomy. Such interactions arise among communes which are geographically or ethnically close. We also highlight both an opportunistic behaviour of local governments before local elections and an effect of partisan affiliations. This African democracy appears to be as concerned as developed democracies with strategic fiscal interactions. Cet article applique la theorie du federalisme budgetaire a l'analyse du processus de decentralisation d'un pays en developpement (le Benin) et teste l'existence d'interactions strategiques parmi les juridictions locales du Benin. A partir d'un modele de concurrence budgetaire a 2 juridictions, nous definissons les conditions d'un equilibre de Nash contraint pour capturer les effets d'extreme pauvrete de certaines communes. Nous montrons que des externalites entre communes impliquent des comportements strategiques des decideurs publics locaux pour ceux disposant de ressources budgetaires suffisantes. Ensuite, en estimant un modele d'interactions spatiales, nous montrons la presence d'interactions strategiques pour les communes du Benin, contingentes a leur autonomie budgetaire. De telles interactions emergent parmi les communes geographiquement et ethniquement proches. Par ailleurs, ces interactions surviennent dans le cadre d'un cycle electoral opportuniste de depenses publiques et sont sensibles a l'affiliation partisane des maires. En conclusion, le Benin apparait aussi touche que les democraties developpees par des comportements strategiques en depenses publiques locales.
在不否认撒哈拉以南国家分权的特定维度的情况下,本文将财政联邦制文献中的标准推理应用于一个发展中国家,并测试贝宁地方政府(称为“公社”)之间战略互动的存在。我们首先提出了一个公共支出相互作用的双辖区模型,考虑了约束纳什均衡来捕捉一些社区的极端贫困。我们发现,司法管辖区之间的溢出效应涉及拥有充足财政资源的地方官员的战略行为。其次,通过估算空间滞后模型,我们的分析为贝宁存在战略互动提供了证据,这取决于社区的财政自治。这种相互作用发生在地理上或种族上接近的公社之间。我们还强调了地方政府在地方选举前的机会主义行为和党派关系的影响。这个非洲民主国家似乎与发达民主国家一样关注战略性财政互动。文章《联邦制预算理论的应用》、《权力下放进程的分析》和《贝宁地方司法的存在与互动战略》。一个参与者在两个司法管辖区建立了并行预算模型,在纳什约束条件下建立了平衡条件,在某些社区极端贫困的情况下建立了捕获者效应。外部性的管理是指公共部门的管理、战略和决策、公共场所的管理、资源和预算的管理。Ensuite, en estiement unmodel d'interaction spatiales, nous montrons la presence and 'interaction strateques pour les communes du Benin, contingency a leleautonomie budget。De telles相互作用,涌现的parmi,公社,地理和种族方法。更重要的是,这种相互作用、生存方式和选举机会的循环取决于公众、敏感人士和无党派人士。总而言之,贝宁政府已经接触到民主国家的发展,其发展战略取决于公共场所。
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引用次数: 2
The Customs Union Between Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia: An Overview of Economic Implications for Belarus 白俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦和俄罗斯之间的关税同盟:对白俄罗斯的经济影响概述
Pub Date : 2010-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1670130
I. Tochitskaya
The paper examines the economic implications of Belarus' participation in the newly created EURASEC Customs Union. The results of the calculations show that after the introduction of a common external tariff (CET) the level of tariff protection in Belarus has not increased noticeably. The reduction in the volume of imports from non-CIS countries equal to USD 1.1 bn (8% of Belarusian non-CIS import in 2008) will be mainly brought about by cancellation of used cars imports from non-member countries. The analyses revealed that Belarusian budget can benefit from participation in the Customs Union (CU). The amount of possible gain will be about 28.3% of total budget revenues from customs duties and customs charges in 2008 due to the fact that approximately 40% of Russian imports may go through customs clearance in Belarus owning to less bureaucracy at the border with respect to Russia, and the revenues from customs charges, which is not planned to be distributed among member countries, will be transferred to Belarusian budget. However, it is unlikely that CU membership will increase foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow to Belarus, since in the case of South-South regional trade agreements (the type of EURASEC countries CU) FDI usually goes to the bigger country, i.e. to the bigger market. Therefore, most probably that in the regional arrangement in question Russia followed by Kazakhstan will be the main beneficiaries of foreign direct investments.
本文探讨了白俄罗斯参与新成立的欧亚经济共同体关税同盟的经济影响。计算结果表明,在实行共同对外关税后,白俄罗斯的关税保护水平并没有显著提高。从非独联体国家的进口额减少了11亿美元(占2008年白俄罗斯非独联体国家进口额的8%),这主要是由于取消了从非成员国进口二手车。分析表明,白俄罗斯的预算可以从参加关税同盟(CU)中受益。由于白俄罗斯与俄罗斯边境的官僚作风较少,大约40%的俄罗斯进口产品可能在白俄罗斯通过清关,因此,2008年关税和海关费用预算总收入的可能收益约为28.3%,关税费用收入不计划在成员国之间分配,将转移到白俄罗斯的预算中。然而,欧盟成员国身份不太可能增加流入白俄罗斯的外国直接投资(FDI),因为在南南区域贸易协定(EURASEC国家类型)的情况下,FDI通常流向较大的国家,即较大的市场。因此,最有可能的是,在有关的区域安排中,俄罗斯和哈萨克斯坦将是外国直接投资的主要受益者。
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引用次数: 21
Damodaran’s Country Risk Premium: A Serious Critique 达摩达兰的国家风险溢价:一个严肃的批判
Pub Date : 2010-07-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1651466
L. Kruschwitz, Andreas Loeffler, G. Mandl
For several years, when setting discount rates Damodaran has advocated more consideration of country risk premiums (CRP) when it comes to assessing companies with activities in emerging markets. In this paper we want to perform a systematic analysis and critical discussion of his CRP concept. It will turn out that Damodaran’s concept of a country risk premium (CRP) is of no relevance in academic circles, has no theoretical basis neither is the CRP concept empirically supported. Furthermore, the rates of return on capital that are derived by such methods are highly arbitrary.
几年来,在制定贴现率时,达摩达兰一直主张在评估在新兴市场开展业务的公司时,更多地考虑国家风险溢价(CRP)。在本文中,我们想对他的CRP概念进行系统的分析和批判性的讨论。结果表明,Damodaran的国家风险溢价(CRP)概念在学术界没有相关性,没有理论基础,CRP概念也没有实证支持。此外,通过这种方法得出的资本回报率是高度武断的。
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引用次数: 12
Currency Substitution in the Economies of Central Asia: How Much Does it Cost? 中亚经济体的货币替代:代价有多大?
Pub Date : 2010-07-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1665043
A. Isaková
Underdeveloped financial markets and periods of high inflation have stimulated dollarization and currency substitution in the economies of Central Asia. Some authors argue that the latter can pose serious obstacles for the effective conduct of monetary policy and can affect households' welfare. This study uses a model with money-in-the-utility function to estimate the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign currencies in three economies of Central Asia - Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan. Utility derived from holding money balances is represented by a CES function with money holdings denominated in two currencies. The residents are assumed to diversify their monetary holdings due to instability of the domestic currency. The steady state analysis reveals that though currency substitution decreases governments' seigniorage revenue, holding foreign money can be welfare generating if domestic currency depreciates vis-a-vis the currencies in which households' foreign balances holdings are denominated. De-dollarization can only be achieved through further macroeconomic stabilization that will bring price and exchange rate stability. Financial sector development will also decrease currency substitution through the provision of reliable financial instruments and the gaining of public confidence.
不发达的金融市场和高通货膨胀时期刺激了中亚经济的美元化和货币替代。一些作者认为,后者可能对货币政策的有效实施构成严重障碍,并可能影响家庭福利。本文采用货币效用函数模型,对中亚三国——哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯共和国和塔吉克斯坦的本币和外币替代弹性进行了估计。持有货币余额产生的效用由一个以两种货币计价的货币持有的CES函数表示。由于国内货币的不稳定,居民们被认为是在分散他们的货币储备。稳态分析表明,虽然货币替代减少了政府的铸币税收入,但如果国内货币相对于家庭外汇余额所计价的货币贬值,持有外国货币可能会产生福利。去美元化只能通过进一步的宏观经济稳定来实现,这将带来价格和汇率的稳定。金融部门的发展还将通过提供可靠的金融工具和获得公众信任来减少货币替代。
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引用次数: 14
Assessing China's Top-Down Securities Markets 评估中国自上而下的证券市场
Pub Date : 2010-07-20 DOI: 10.3386/W16713
W. Allen, W. T. Allen, Hanxiao Shen
China's securities markets are unlike those of Amsterdam, London or New York. Those markets evolved over centuries from myriad interactions among those seeking finance on the one hand and savers seeking rewarding investments on the other. Such spontaneous securities markets did emerge throughout China in the 1980s following the start of economic liberalization, but these spontaneous markets were closed by the government in favor of new and tightly controlled exchanges established in the early 1990s in Shanghai and Shenzhen. These new markets, have been designed to and largely limited to, serving state purposes, that is to assist in the financing of the state sector of the economy. Rather than evolving in a bottom-up pattern, they are controlled, top-down securities markets. This essay reviews as of June 2010, the development of these markets, the economic functions they perform, the regulatory structure that controls and shapes them, and the governance mechanisms - legal and otherwise - that controls the management of the PRC listed companies. These markets represent a signal accomplishment of the Chinese leadership in producing in less than twenty years' modern, albeit not yet fully developed, securities markets. Whether they can be further developed to serve more basic economic role than they have been permitted to play is a question with which the essay concludes.
中国的证券市场不同于阿姆斯特丹、伦敦或纽约的证券市场。这些市场经过几个世纪的发展,一方面是寻求融资的人,另一方面是寻求投资回报的储蓄者之间的无数互动。20世纪80年代,随着经济自由化的开始,这种自发的证券市场确实在中国各地出现,但这些自发的市场被政府关闭,取而代之的是20世纪90年代初在上海和深圳建立的新的、受到严格控制的交易所。这些新市场的设计是为了而且主要限于服务于国家目的,即协助为国有经济部门提供资金。它们是受控的、自上而下的证券市场,而不是自下而上的模式。本文回顾了截至2010年6月,这些市场的发展,它们所执行的经济功能,控制和塑造它们的监管结构,以及控制中国上市公司管理层的治理机制(法律和其他)。这些市场代表了中国在不到二十年的时间里建立现代证券市场(尽管尚未完全发展)方面取得的显著成就。它们是否可以进一步发展,以发挥比它们被允许发挥的更基本的经济作用,这是本文最后提出的一个问题。
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引用次数: 26
Forecasting Long-Run Coal Price in China: A Shifting Trend Time-Series Approach 中国煤炭价格的长期预测:一种变化趋势时间序列方法
Pub Date : 2010-07-19 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9361.2010.00567.x
Baomin Dong, Xuefeng Li, Boqiang Lin
The paper studies the behavior of mid- to long-run real coal price in the Chinese market. The problem is of great importance because the coal takes a 70% share in China's energy mix, and China is the world's second largest carbon emitter. An accurate forecast in coal price is crucial in predicting China's future energy consumption mix as well as the private sector's energy-type-related investment decisions. In estimation and forecasting, the shifting trend time-series model suggested by Robert Pindyck is used to capture the technological progress that is unobservable to the econometrician. It is found that the shifting trend model with continuous and random changes in price level and trend outperforms plain vanilla ARIMA models. It is argued that the model postulated by Pindyck is robust even in a transition economy where energy prices are subject to relatively rigid regulatory control. Out-of-sample forecasts are provided.
本文研究了中国市场中长期煤炭实际价格的变化规律。这个问题非常重要,因为煤炭占中国能源结构的70%,而中国是世界第二大碳排放国。准确预测煤炭价格对于预测中国未来的能源消费结构以及私营部门与能源类型相关的投资决策至关重要。在估计和预测中,使用Robert Pindyck提出的移动趋势时间序列模型来捕捉计量经济学家无法观察到的技术进步。结果表明,具有价格水平和趋势连续随机变化的移动趋势模型优于普通ARIMA模型。有人认为,即使在能源价格受到相对严格的监管控制的转型经济中,平迪克假设的模型也是稳健的。提供了样本外预测。
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引用次数: 17
FDI and Industrial Productivity in China: Evidence from Panel Data in 2001–06 外商直接投资与中国工业生产率:来自2001 - 2006年面板数据的证据
Pub Date : 2010-07-19 DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9361.2010.00580.x
Zhongxiu Zhao, Kevin H. Zhang
How does foreign direct investment (FDI) affect China's industrial productivity? While the topic is important, the relevant empirical studies in the literature have been limited. This paper attempts to close the gap by investigating the issue with panel data in the period 2001–06. Empirical models for both productivity level and growth are developed, in which two channels are identified through which FDI may affect industrial productivity directly and indirectly. The estimates suggest that FDI has positive direct and spillovers effect on China's industrial productivity level and growth, and the contribution of FDI to productivity is enhanced by its interaction with China's human capital. While labor-intensive industries benefit more from FDI direct effects, capital-intensive industries gain more from FDI spillover effects.
外商直接投资(FDI)如何影响中国的工业生产率?虽然这个主题很重要,但文献中相关的实证研究却很有限。本文试图通过调查2001 - 2006年的面板数据来缩小这一差距。建立了生产率水平和增长的实证模型,其中确定了FDI直接和间接影响工业生产率的两个渠道。研究表明,FDI对中国工业生产率水平和增长具有正向的直接效应和溢出效应,FDI对生产率的贡献通过与中国人力资本的互动而增强。劳动密集型产业从FDI直接效应中获益较多,资本密集型产业从FDI溢出效应中获益较多。
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引用次数: 72
Directors' Oversight Responsibility and the Impact of Specialist Skill 董事监督责任与专业技能的影响
Pub Date : 2010-07-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1635154
Aiman Nariman Mohd-Sulaiman
Listed companies are now required to establish audit committees where at least one audit committee member must have specialist skill. This article examines the impact of the specialist skill requirement on the developing legal principles relating to directors’ oversight responsibility particularly in context of delegation and reliance. This article shows that in countries that have adopted the dual-standard of care, the specialist skill blends in with the imposition of the subjective standard and does not create a new standard. However, it does expose non-executive director to liability due to the fact that audit committee must comprise only non-executive directors. Using collected data of the enforcement activities of the Malaysian stock exchange, this article also shows that while there seems to be not much threat against directors from private enforcement of breach of directors’ duty of care in Malaysia, the oversight responsibility of both executive and non-executive directors is increasingly being enforced by the stock exchange.
目前,上市公司必须设立审计委员会,其中至少有一名审计委员会成员必须具备专业技能。本文考察了专业技能要求对发展中与董事监督责任有关的法律原则的影响,特别是在委托和依赖的背景下。本文表明,在采用双重护理标准的国家,专业技能与强加的主观标准融合在一起,并没有创造新的标准。然而,由于审计委员会必须仅由非执行董事组成,这确实使非执行董事承担责任。利用收集到的马来西亚证券交易所执法活动的数据,本文还表明,虽然在马来西亚,私人执法违反董事的注意义务似乎对董事没有太大威胁,但执行董事和非执行董事的监督责任正越来越多地由证券交易所执行。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
INTL: Managing in Emerging Markets (Topic)
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