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Daily Institutional Trades and Stock Price Volatility in a Retail Investor Dominated Emerging Market 每日机构交易和股票价格波动在散户投资者主导的新兴市场
Pub Date : 2009-12-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1625622
Wei Li, Steven Shuye Wang
We examine the short-run dynamic relation between daily institutional trading and stock price volatility in a retail investor-dominated emerging market. We find a significantly negative relation between volatility and institutional net trading that is mainly due to the unexpected institutional trading. The price volatility-institutional trade relation differs for institutional buys and institutional sells, and for small and large stocks. Institutional investors herd-trade in large stocks, but do not systematically engage in positive-feedback trading. We argue that the net impact of informational and noninformational institutional trades determines the relation between volatility and institutional trading, and that the relation is negative when informational trading by institutions prevails.
我们研究了散户投资者主导的新兴市场中每日机构交易与股价波动之间的短期动态关系。我们发现波动性与机构净交易之间存在显著的负相关关系,这主要是由于意外的机构交易。机构买入和机构卖出、小型股和大型股的价格波动与机构交易关系是不同的。机构投资者在大型股票中进行羊群交易,但不系统地参与正反馈交易。我们认为,信息和非信息机构交易的净影响决定了波动性与机构交易之间的关系,当机构信息交易占主导地位时,波动性与机构交易之间的关系为负。
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引用次数: 64
How Important are Labor Market Institutions for Labor Market Performance in Transition Countries? 转型国家的劳动力市场制度对劳动力市场绩效有多重要?
Pub Date : 2009-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1530677
H. Lehmann, A. Muravyev
This paper offers a first comprehensive study of the relationship between labor market institutions and policies and labor market performance in the countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia, which in the last two decades experienced radical economic and institutional transformations. Based on a new and unique hand-collected dataset, the paper first documents the evolution of labor market institutions and policies in the transition region. The data show a clear trend towards liberalization of labor markets, especially in the countries of the former Soviet Union, but also substantial differences across the countries studied. Second, the paper takes advantage of the large variation in the key economic and institutional variables to test several predictions concerning the role of institutions and polices in explaining labor market outcomes. The results of our econometric analysis are generally consistent with the view that institutions matter for labor market outcomes, and that deregulation of the labor markets improves their performance. The analysis also suggests several significant interactions between different institutions, which are in line with the idea of reform complementarity and broad reform packages. We also show that there are important advantages of focusing on a broader set of labor market outcomes, and not only on the unemployment rate, which until now has been the main approach in the empirical literature.
本文首次对东欧和中亚国家劳动力市场制度和政策与劳动力市场绩效之间的关系进行了全面研究,这些国家在过去二十年中经历了彻底的经济和制度变革。本文基于一个新的、独特的手工收集数据集,首先记录了转型地区劳动力市场制度和政策的演变。数据显示劳动力市场自由化的明显趋势,特别是在前苏联国家,但在研究的国家之间也存在很大差异。其次,本文利用关键经济和制度变量的巨大差异来检验有关制度和政策在解释劳动力市场结果中的作用的几种预测。我们的计量经济学分析结果与制度对劳动力市场结果的影响以及放松对劳动力市场的管制改善其表现的观点大体一致。分析还表明,不同机构之间有几项重要的相互作用,这符合改革互补性和广泛改革一揽子计划的想法。我们还表明,关注更广泛的劳动力市场结果有重要的优势,而不仅仅是关注失业率,到目前为止,失业率一直是实证文献中的主要方法。
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引用次数: 33
State Aid and Competition in Banking: The Case of China in the Late Nineties 国家援助与银行业竞争:以九十年代末中国为例
Pub Date : 2009-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1536484
Xiaoqiang Cheng, Patrick J. G. Van Cayseele
Many contributions to the literature on competition in banking use the Panzar and Rosse test (1987). This test encompasses a variety of market outcomes assuming firms maximize profits. However, when applied to the banking industry, this assumption may not be always valid as banks sometimes may carry social objectives or aim to be systemic players so as to be "too big to fail". This then motivates different objective functions, departing from profit maximization. We present a reduced form model where banks can pursue other goals than profit maximization. This allows us to test for behavioral changes of banks over time. Our model provides a framework to evaluate whether moral hazard issues may plague banks receiving state aid, which concerns greatly the recent debate on government intervention in financial markets during the global financial crisis in 2008. To test the impact of state aid, we examine a natural experiment in the banking sector in China in the 1990s. We cannot reject that the possibility of receiving state aid triggers moral hazard prone conduct.
许多对银行业竞争的文献贡献使用了Panzar和Rosse测试(1987)。这个测试包含了假设企业利润最大化的各种市场结果。然而,当应用于银行业时,这种假设可能并不总是有效的,因为银行有时可能带有社会目标,或者旨在成为系统性参与者,从而“太大而不能倒”。这就激发了不同的目标函数,而不是利润最大化。我们提出了一个简化形式的模型,其中银行可以追求利润最大化以外的其他目标。这使我们能够测试银行在一段时间内的行为变化。我们的模型提供了一个框架来评估道德风险问题是否会困扰接受国家援助的银行,这与最近关于2008年全球金融危机期间政府干预金融市场的辩论密切相关。为了检验国家援助的影响,我们考察了上世纪90年代中国银行业的一个自然实验。我们不能否认,接受国家援助的可能性会引发容易产生道德风险的行为。
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引用次数: 7
Independent Directors’ Characteristics and Performance: Evidence from China 独立董事的特征与绩效:来自中国的证据
Pub Date : 2009-10-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1489088
Jing Liao, M. Young, Qian Sun
Chinese listed firms recruit independent directors in order to build up connections with people who can provide useful sources and/or protection rather than for their monitoring of top managements. It is found that Chinese listed firms particularly prefer two types of Guanxi provided by independent directors: 43.76% of the independent directors are university scholars or researchers; and 13.88% of them are politically connected. Moreover, the relationship between Tobin’s Q and the presence of scholars and politically connected independent directors on boards is significantly negative. Furthermore, scholars, commercial bankers and politically connected independent directors can add value to large and diversified firms, high leveraged firms, and firms without political connections, respectively. Finally, the recruitment of independent directors does not reduce the related party transactions between the listed firms and their controlling shareholders, but instead, firms with politically connected CEOs, and firms with a government bureaucrat as the largest shareholder engage in less related party transactions.
中国上市公司聘请独立董事是为了与能够提供有用信息来源和/或保护的人建立联系,而不是为了监督最高管理层。研究发现,我国上市公司对独立董事提供的两种类型的关系尤为青睐:43.76%的独立董事是大学学者或研究人员;其中13.88%的人有政治关系。此外,Tobin’s Q与学者和有政治关系的独立董事在董事会中的存在呈显著负相关。此外,学者、商业银行家和有政治关系的独立董事可以分别为大型多元化公司、高杠杆公司和没有政治关系的公司增加价值。最后,聘请独立董事并没有减少上市公司与控股股东之间的关联交易,相反,拥有政治关联ceo的公司和拥有政府官僚作为第一大股东的公司的关联交易较少。
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引用次数: 13
Export and Benefits of Hedging in Emerging Economies 新兴经济体的出口与对冲收益
Pub Date : 2009-09-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1552351
Udo Broll, J. Wahl, Christoph Wessel
We study the impact of exchange rate risk upon export production within an emerging economy lacking in currency forward markets. However there exists a financial asset whose price is correlated with the relevant foreign currency. We present conditions under which export production is stimulated when the hedging device becomes more effective. In any case the exporting firm benefits from imperfectly hedging exchange rate risk.
本文研究了汇率风险对缺乏货币远期市场的新兴经济体出口生产的影响。但存在一种金融资产,其价格与相关外币相关。我们提出了当对冲工具变得更有效时刺激出口生产的条件。在任何情况下,出口企业都能从不完全对冲汇率风险中获益。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of Irrigation on Food Security in Bangladesh for the Past Three Decades 过去三十年灌溉对孟加拉国粮食安全的影响
Pub Date : 2009-09-01 DOI: 10.4236/JWARP.2009.13027
Lovely Parvin, M. Rahman
Bangladesh has made impressive progress in agriculture sector in the last three decades and has almost be-come self-sufficient in food grain production. This is a tremendous achievement owing to its small territory and huge population and this was achieved through agricultural mechanization and modernization. Irrigation is one of the leading inputs has direct influence to increase yield, food grains production and plays vital role for ensuring food security in Bangladesh. The present study examined the growth of irrigated area and its impact on food grain production during last three decades. Time series data were used for the study. Differ-ent statistical methods such as mean, percentage, linear and exponential growth model were applied for get-ting meaningful findings. Various technologies have been used for irrigating crops which have contributed to rapid expansion of irrigated area. The conventional irrigation methods (Low Lift Pump, Dhone, Swing Bas-ket, Treadle Pump etc.) were replaced by modern methods (i.e Deep Tube Well and Shallow Tube Well). In addition, surface water irrigation also sharply declined, losing its importance due to lack of new surface irri-gation project and the ineffectiveness of earlier project. Groundwater covered 77 percent of total irrigated area and major (62%) extractions occurred through Shallow Tube Wells (STWs). The rapid expansion of ground water irrigation in respect to STWs irrigation was due to government’s withdrawal on restrictions on tube well setting rule, encouraging private sector and the cost effectiveness of Chinese engine which have been affordable to the small and medium farmers. Irrigated area thus, increased by about three times and cropping intensity also increased from 154 to 176 percent. Boro rice, an irrigated crop, consumed 73 percent of the total crop irrigation and contributed to a greater extent in total rice production in Bangladesh. Boro rice alone contributed to 55 percent of total food grain and was also highest (3.44 MT per hectare) compared to aus rice (1.66 MT per hectare) and aman rice (1.99 MT per hectare) per unit production. Consequently, the cultivated area of boro rice increased by 1168 to 4068 thousand hectares. The higher productivity of boro rice has almost helped the nation to meet her food requirements (about 24 Million MT). Boro rice production was highly correlated (r = .978) with irrigated area. Expansion of one hectare of irrigated area added 3.22 MT of boro rice in Bangladesh. Finally, the study suggested for expansion of irrigated areas (ground water and surface water), adoption of modern technologies and formulation of farmers’ friendly policy.
孟加拉国在过去三十年中在农业领域取得了令人印象深刻的进步,在粮食生产方面几乎实现了自给自足。这是一个地小人口多的国家取得的巨大成就,是通过农业机械化和现代化取得的。灌溉是主要投入之一,对提高产量和粮食生产有直接影响,对确保孟加拉国的粮食安全起着至关重要的作用。本研究考察了近三十年来灌溉面积的增长及其对粮食生产的影响。本研究采用时间序列数据。采用了均值、百分比、线性和指数增长模型等不同的统计方法,得到了有意义的结果。灌溉作物采用了各种技术,使灌溉面积迅速扩大。传统的灌溉方式(低扬程泵、电话、摇篮、脚踏泵等)被现代的灌溉方式(即深管井和浅管井)所取代。此外,地表水灌溉也急剧下降,由于缺乏新的地表水灌溉项目和早期项目的无效,失去了其重要性。地下水覆盖了总灌溉面积的77%,主要(62%)是通过浅管井(STWs)抽取的。地下水灌溉在污水处理厂灌溉方面的迅速扩张是由于政府取消了对管井设置规则的限制,鼓励私营部门和中国发动机的成本效益,中小型农民负担得起。灌溉面积增加了约三倍,种植强度也从154%增加到176%。米米是一种灌溉作物,消耗了作物灌溉总量的73%,对孟加拉国水稻总产量的贡献更大。单是波罗米就占粮食总产量的55%,与每单位产量的澳大利亚米(每公顷1.66吨)和澳大利亚米(每公顷1.99吨)相比,波罗米也是最高的(每公顷344吨)。因此,水稻的种植面积增加了1168公顷,达到406.8万公顷。米罗大米的高产量几乎帮助该国满足了粮食需求(约2400万吨)。水稻产量与灌溉面积高度相关(r = .978)。在孟加拉国,每扩大一公顷灌溉面积就增加了3.22万吨米粒。最后,提出了扩大灌溉面积(地下水和地表水)、采用现代技术和制定农民友好政策的建议。
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引用次数: 54
Does Bank Concentration Increase Credit Risk-Taking Behaviour? Evidence from SADC 银行集中度是否会增加信贷风险承担行为?来自南共体的证据
Pub Date : 2009-03-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1607706
Kassim Hussein
In this study, we assess whether banking system concentration is strongly linked to banks credit risk exposure. We use a sample of 138 commercial banks drawn from SADC countries between 1999 and 2005. The results exhibit no significant influence of concentration on four measures of credit risk-taking behavior using three different estimation methods. Furthermore, the study concludes that the SADC banking sector was relatively stable during the second phase of banking reforms. The research also identifies two categories of factors that impact on credit risk in the SADC banking system. The first category relates to bank specific factors mainly cost-to-income ratio (COIR) and prices for bank lending and deposit products. In general, we find that of the bank-specific factors NIM, COIR and prices for loans and deposits to be significantly related to credit risk-taking behaviour. The second category relates to the macro environment and the result identify inflation and credit demand as having a positive and significant influence on bank credit risk.
在本研究中,我们评估银行体系集中度是否与银行信用风险暴露密切相关。我们使用了1999年至2005年间从SADC国家抽取的138家商业银行的样本。使用三种不同的估计方法,结果显示集中度对信贷冒险行为的四项指标没有显著影响。此外,该研究得出结论,南共体银行业在银行改革的第二阶段相对稳定。该研究还确定了影响南共体银行体系信用风险的两类因素。第一类涉及银行的具体因素,主要是成本收入比(COIR)和银行贷款和存款产品的价格。一般来说,我们发现银行特定因素NIM, COIR和贷款和存款价格与信贷风险承担行为显着相关。第二类涉及宏观环境,结果确定通货膨胀和信贷需求对银行信贷风险具有积极和显著的影响。
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引用次数: 2
Indian Premier League 印度超级联赛
Pub Date : 2009-03-06 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.1354534
V. Ramanna
The Indian Premier League (IPL) conceived by the Board of control for cricket in India (BCCI) is a T20 format cricket competition. The case tracks the development of the plan and launch of the first season of play. The case asks how attractive the plan is to all the parties involved and requires students to assess the risk and reward of the plan. To help students gain familiarity with performing discounted cash flow analysis.
由印度板球控制委员会(BCCI)构想的印度超级联赛(IPL)是一项T20格式的板球比赛。该案例追踪了计划的发展和第一季游戏的推出。该案例询问该计划对所有相关方的吸引力,并要求学生评估该计划的风险和回报。帮助学生熟悉贴现现金流分析。
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引用次数: 13
Impact of Bankruptcy Law Reform on Capital Markets in Brazil 破产法改革对巴西资本市场的影响
Pub Date : 2009-02-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1345076
Padma Kadiyala
New bankruptcy laws which give greater protection to creditors were signed into law in Brazil on Feb 9, 2005. The paper tests whether greater protection to creditors led to growth in capital markets in Brazil as predicted by La Porta, Lopez-de-Silanes, Shleifer and Vishny (1997, 1998, 2002 and 2006). Our analysis shows that the money market responded positively with a drop of 600 basis points in the Selic, the benchmark interest rate, after the new law went into effect. Aggregate stock market indexes reacted positively when the new rules were signed into law. Long-term returns to stock market indexes consisting of firms which offer greater protection to shareholders, are positive, which strongly supports the La Porta, et al predictions.
2005年2月9日,为债权人提供更多保护的新破产法在巴西签署成为法律。本文检验了对债权人的更大保护是否如La Porta、Lopez-de-Silanes、Shleifer和Vishny(1997、1998、2002和2006)所预测的那样导致了巴西资本市场的增长。我们的分析显示,在新法案生效后,货币市场做出了积极的反应,基准利率Selic下降了600个基点。新规定签署成为法律后,股市综合指数反应积极。由为股东提供更大保护的公司组成的股票市场指数的长期回报是积极的,这有力地支持了La Porta等人的预测。
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引用次数: 2
Do Foreign Banks Drive Foreign Currency Lending in Central and Eastern Europe? 外资银行推动中欧和东欧的外汇贷款吗?
Pub Date : 2009-02-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1343557
P. Haiss, Andreas Paulhart, Wolfgang Rainer
Foreign direct investment (FDI) by banks into Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has increased considerably, resulting in foreign bank ownership of up to 90% in some countries in the region. Most CEE countries also recorded a substantial rise in foreign currency (FX) denominated credit, leading to concerns about the potential risks of asset deterioration in the domestic banking sector and of accusations about foreign banks "exporting" risks. While there is a lot of research on dollarization in emerging markets, empirical evidence about the role of foreign banks in promoting fx-lending in CEE is scarce. This paper aims at filling this gap, analyzing whether there exists a significant relationship between foreign banks' asset share and the level of fx-lending. Using a linear regression model with data on 16 transition countries for the period 1999 to 2006 we find that foreign banks do not increase the risk of foreign currency lending. Our results show that foreign currency denominated lending seems to be a function of the level of fx-deposits, changes in the real exchange rate and the concentration of the banking sector.
银行对中欧和东欧(CEE)的外国直接投资(FDI)大幅增加,导致该地区一些国家的外国银行所有权高达90%。大多数中东欧国家的外币计价信贷也出现了大幅增长,这引发了人们对国内银行业资产恶化的潜在风险的担忧,以及对外国银行“输出”风险的指责。虽然有很多关于新兴市场美元化的研究,但关于外国银行在促进中东欧固定贷款方面的作用的经验证据很少。本文旨在填补这一空白,分析外资银行的资产份额与固定贷款水平之间是否存在显著关系。通过对16个转型期国家1999年至2006年数据的线性回归模型,我们发现外资银行并没有增加外币贷款的风险。我们的研究结果表明,以外币计价的贷款似乎是定期存款水平、实际汇率变化和银行业集中度的函数。
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引用次数: 14
期刊
INTL: Managing in Emerging Markets (Topic)
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