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The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: Searching for Supply-Side Effects 减税和就业法案:寻找供给侧效应
IF 1.7 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-11-12 DOI: 10.1086/717132
W. Gale, Claire Haldeman
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA) instituted the most substantial changes in taxation in decades and was designed to boost the economy via supply-side incentives. This paper reviews these changes and examines the impacts on economic aggregates through 2019. The act clearly reduced revenue. The effect on gross domestic product is difficult to tease out of the data. Investment growth rose after the TCJA was enacted, but it was driven by trends in aggregate demand, oil prices, and intellectual capital that were unrelated to the TCJA’s supply-side incentives. Growth in business formation, employment, and median wages slowed after the TCJA was enacted. International profit shifting fell only slightly, and the boost in repatriated profits primarily led to increased share repurchases rather than new investment.
《2017年减税和就业法案》(TCJA)对税收进行了几十年来最重大的改革,旨在通过供给侧激励措施提振经济。本文回顾了这些变化,并考察了到2019年对经济总量的影响。该法案显然减少了税收。这对国内生产总值(gdp)的影响很难从数据中梳理出来。在TCJA颁布后,投资增长有所增加,但这是由总需求、油价和智力资本的趋势推动的,而这些与TCJA的供给侧激励无关。在TCJA颁布后,企业成立、就业和工资中位数的增长放缓。国际利润转移仅略有下降,汇回利润的增加主要导致了股票回购的增加,而不是新的投资。
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引用次数: 5
Taxes and Firm Size: A 40-Year Perspective 税收和公司规模:一个40年的视角
IF 1.7 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-11-05 DOI: 10.1086/717021
Daniel Green, G. Plesko
We examine the statutory incidence of the federal corporate tax on firms by asset size over a 40-year period spanning numerous tax changes. In contrast to previous studies, which have been based upon financial statement measures of effective tax rates, we examine the relation between taxes and asset size using published tax return data and a common measure of distribution. The results suggest that the corporate tax burden has become relatively proportional to firm size over the last 40 years, only slightly favoring larger firms.
我们在40年的时间里,通过多次税收变化,按资产规模对公司征收联邦公司税的法定发生率进行了研究。与以前的研究不同,以前的研究是基于有效税率的财务报表衡量标准,我们使用公布的纳税申报表数据和常见的分布衡量标准来检验税收与资产规模之间的关系。研究结果表明,在过去40年中,公司税收负担与公司规模成了相对比例,只略微有利于大公司。
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引用次数: 2
Rebellion, Rascals, and Revenue: Tax Follies and Wisdom through the Ages! by Michael Keen and Joel Slemrod (Princeton University Press, 2021, Princeton, NJ, 511 pages) 叛乱、流氓与税收:历代税收的愚蠢与智慧!迈克尔·基恩、乔尔·斯勒姆罗德著(普林斯顿大学出版社,2021年,普林斯顿,新泽西州,511页)
IF 1.7 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-11-05 DOI: 10.1086/717188
William M. Gentry
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引用次数: 0
The Responsiveness of Medicaid Spending to the Federal Subsidy 医疗补助支出对联邦补贴的响应
IF 1.7 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-11-01 DOI: 10.1086/721912
M. Bundorf, D. Kessler
Although economic theory suggests that the federal government can influence spending by states through subsidies to programs that states operate, no recent work has quantified the magnitude of this effect for Medicaid, the largest program of this type in the United States. We find that Medicaid spending per enrollee responds to the magnitude of the federal subsidy. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) and its subsequent interpretation by the Supreme Court gave states the option to expand eligibility for their Medicaid programs in exchange for increases in the generosity of the federal subsidy for the population made eligible by the expansion. States that exercised this option increased Medicaid spending per enrollee on enrollees who were eligible even before the ACA by approximately 15 percent. Depending on the specification, this translates into an elasticity of Medicaid spending per enrollee with respect to the after-subsidy price of Medicaid to a state of −0.494 to −0.579.
尽管经济理论表明,联邦政府可以通过向各州实施的项目提供补贴来影响各州的支出,但最近没有研究量化这种影响对医疗补助计划的影响程度。医疗补助计划是美国此类项目中规模最大的。我们发现,每个参保人的医疗补助支出与联邦补贴的规模有关。《平价医疗法案》(ACA)及其随后由最高法院作出的解释给予各州选择扩大其医疗补助计划的资格,以换取联邦政府对因该计划扩大而符合资格的人口的慷慨补贴。行使这一选项的州增加了每位参保人的医疗补助支出,这些参保人在ACA之前就有资格参保,大约增加了15%。根据具体情况,这意味着每个参保人的医疗补助支出弹性相对于医疗补助补贴后的价格在- 0.494到- 0.579之间。
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引用次数: 2
Leakage From Retirement Savings Accounts In The United States 美国退休储蓄账户泄漏
IF 1.7 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1086/715819
Lucas W. Goodman, Jacob A. Mortenson, Kathleen Mackie, Heidi R. Schramm
This paper generates new, aggregate estimates of retirement savings flows in the United States from 2003 to 2015 and provides detailed estimates of leakage from tax-preferred retirement savings accounts to preretirement-age individuals. We create a nationally representative panel of individuals using a sample of administrative tax data with more than 140 million person-year observations. These data contain information on retirement contributions, distributions, and transfers between accounts. We estimate that between 2003 and 2015 distributions from defined contribution plans and IRAs to individuals age 50 or younger were equal to 22 percent of the contributions made by this age group. When estimating the correlation between common life events and the probability of leakage, we find that job separations correspond with an increase in the probability of leakage of more than 200 percent. Job separations generating the receipt of unemployment insurance (UI) — a proxy for an involuntary job separation — are associated with higher leakage than non-UI separations. Other types of events, such as income shocks, home purchases, and the onset of tuition payments, are also associated with leakage.
本文对2003年至2015年美国退休储蓄流动进行了新的汇总估计,并提供了从税收优惠退休储蓄账户流向退休年龄前个人的详细估计。我们使用超过1.4亿人年度观察的行政税收数据样本创建了一个具有全国代表性的个人小组。这些数据包含有关退休供款、分配和账户间转账的信息。我们估计,在2003年至2015年期间,从固定缴款计划和个人退休账户分配给50岁或更年轻的个人的金额相当于该年龄组缴费金额的22%。当估计日常生活事件与泄漏概率之间的相关性时,我们发现工作分离与泄漏概率的增加对应超过200%。与非失业保险离职相比,产生失业保险(UI)(非自愿离职的代理)的离职与更高的泄漏相关。其他类型的事件,如收入冲击、购房和学费支付的开始,也与泄漏有关。
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引用次数: 6
How Did Safety-Net Reform Affect Early Adulthood among Adolescents from Low-Income Families? 安全网改革如何影响低收入家庭青少年的早期成年?
IF 1.7 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1086/716189
J. Bastian, Luorao Bian, J. Grogger
In the 1990s, the US safety net was substantially reformed. We ask how those reforms collectively affected early-career outcomes among youths who were teens when the reforms took effect. We consider employment, safety-net participation, marriage, and childbearing between the ages of 18 and 32. We take a difference-in-difference approach, tracking adolescents from two generations roughly 20 years apart. In each generation, we compare two groups, one of which was more likely to have been affected by safety-net reform than the other. We find evidence that safety-net reform increased women’s labor supply and decreased marriage.
20世纪90年代,美国的安全网进行了实质性改革。我们想知道,当改革生效时,这些改革是如何共同影响青少年早期职业生涯的结果的。我们考虑了18岁至32岁之间的就业、安全网参与、婚姻和生育。我们采用差异中的方法,跟踪大约相隔20岁的两代青少年。在每一代人中,我们比较两个群体,其中一个群体比另一个群体更有可能受到安全网改革的影响。我们发现有证据表明,安全网改革增加了妇女的劳动力供应,减少了婚姻。
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引用次数: 2
TANF at 25: A Weaker Cash Safety Net Reaching Fewer Families and doing Less to Lift Families out of Deep Poverty 25岁的TANF:现金安全网越来越弱,惠及的家庭越来越少,帮助家庭摆脱深度贫困的措施也越来越少
IF 1.7 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1086/716107
Ladonna Pavetti, Ali Safawi, Danilo Trisi
We analyze the 25-year trajectory of Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF), the nation’s cash safety net for families with children. Since its creation, TANF’s story has been one of greatly diminished access, low benefits, and states diverting funding away from cash assistance, changes that have disproportionately affected the assistance available to Black families. We document how the weakened safety net under TANF contributed to a rise in deep poverty among children in single-mother families and how two defining features of TANF — work requirements and time limits — contributed to TANF’s weakness. Finally, we make policy recommendations to address TANF’s failures.
我们分析了贫困家庭临时援助(TANF)的25年轨迹,这是美国为有孩子的家庭提供的现金安全网。自成立以来,TANF的故事一直是一个机会大大减少,福利低,各州从现金援助中转移资金的故事,这些变化不成比例地影响了黑人家庭获得的援助。我们记录了TANF下被削弱的安全网如何导致单亲母亲家庭中儿童深度贫困的增加,以及TANF的两个决定性特征——工作要求和时间限制——如何导致TANF的弱势。最后,我们提出了解决TANF失败的政策建议。
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引用次数: 1
Introduction 介绍
IF 1.7 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-08-31 DOI: 10.1086/716432
Laura Kawano
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引用次数: 0
The Consumption, Income, and Well-Being of Single mother–headed Families 25 Years After Welfare Reform 福利改革25年后单亲母亲家庭的消费、收入与幸福感
IF 1.7 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-08-01 DOI: 10.1086/716242
Jeehoon Han, Bruce D. Meyer, James X. Sullivan
We investigate how material well-being has changed over time for single mother–headed families — the primary group affected by welfare reform and other policy changes of the 1990s. We focus on consumption as well as other indicators including components of consumption, measures of housing quality, and health insurance coverage. The results provide strong evidence that the material circumstances of single mothers improved in the decades following welfare reform. The consumption of the most disadvantaged single mother–headed families — those with low consumption or low education — rose noticeably over time and at a faster rate than for those in comparison groups.
我们调查了单亲母亲家庭的物质福利是如何随着时间的推移而变化的——单亲母亲家庭是受20世纪90年代福利改革和其他政策变化影响的主要群体。我们重点关注消费以及其他指标,包括消费组成部分、住房质量指标和医疗保险覆盖率。研究结果提供了强有力的证据,证明在福利改革后的几十年里,单身母亲的物质环境得到了改善。处于最不利地位的单亲母亲户主家庭- -消费水平低或受教育程度低的家庭- -的消费随着时间的推移显著增加,而且增长速度比对照组快。
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引用次数: 7
The Spending and Consumption Response to A VAT Rate Increase 增值税税率上调后的支出和消费反应
IF 1.7 3区 经济学 Q2 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.1086/714368
David B. Cashin, T. Unayama
This study estimates the effect of an increase in Japan’s value-added tax (VAT) rate on the timing of household expenditures and consumption, which do not necessarily coincide. The empirical analysis finds that spending on a wide range of durables and storables surged in the months prior to the tax rate increase, fell sharply upon implementation, but returned to their previous long-run levels within a few months. Nonstorable, nondurable expenditures increased slightly in the month prior to the tax rate increase but were otherwise unresponsive. A dynamic structural model of household consumption reveals that the observed spending responses were driven by stockpiling behavior, the insensitivity of durable and nondurable consumption to the tax rate increase, and strong complementarities between durables and nondurables. By mapping durable and storable expenditures into consumption, the model allows for a considerably more precise estimate of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption than the standard method, which focuses on nondurable spending only. The results, external validity checks, and marginal excess burden calculation suggest that anticipated changes in VAT rates have a large, though highly transitory, impact on household spending that generates miniscule efficiency costs.
这项研究估计了日本增值税税率的提高对家庭支出和消费时间的影响,这并不一定一致。实证分析发现,在税率上调前的几个月,各种耐用和可储存品的支出激增,在实施后大幅下降,但在几个月内恢复到以前的长期水平。在税率上调前一个月,不可支付、不可持久的支出略有增加,但在其他方面没有反应。家庭消费的动态结构模型表明,观察到的支出反应是由囤积行为、耐用消费和非耐用消费对税率增长的不敏感以及耐用消费和不耐用消费之间的强大互补性驱动的。通过将耐用和可储存支出映射到消费中,该模型可以比只关注非耐用支出的标准方法更准确地估计消费替代的跨期弹性。结果、外部有效性检查和边际超额负担计算表明,增值税税率的预期变化对家庭支出产生了巨大但高度短暂的影响,从而产生了极小的效率成本。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
National Tax Journal
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