Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-10-27DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102641
Zijian Cui , Tao Ding , Beifeng Zhou , Chujin Liang , Weifang Jin , Feilong Lin
Modern remote sensing techniques can now systematically extract coherent internal tidal signals (mode-1 and mode-2) from global sea surface height measurements. This capability arises from the accumulation of multi-source satellite altimetry data. However, the steady-state internal tides constructed by this method have limitations. They cannot fully characterize how dynamic oceanographic environmental variations influence internal tides. In realistic oceanic conditions, stratification and background currents significantly modulate the phase velocity and amplitude of internal tides. This modulation significantly enhances the energy proportion of incoherent internal tides. This study proposes applying the Gaussian beam superposition method to the Wavefront model to improve its capability in calculating internal tide energy evolution within complex oceanic environments, with validation provided by two sets of mooring observations from the northern South China Sea. The developed approach demonstrates potential for modeling time-varying patterns in global internal tide energy distribution under varying stratification and background current conditions.
{"title":"Application of Gaussian beam superposition method in the Wavefront model for internal tides","authors":"Zijian Cui , Tao Ding , Beifeng Zhou , Chujin Liang , Weifang Jin , Feilong Lin","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102641","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102641","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Modern remote sensing techniques can now systematically extract coherent internal tidal signals (mode-1 and mode-2) from global sea surface height measurements. This capability arises from the accumulation of multi-source satellite altimetry data. However, the steady-state internal tides constructed by this method have limitations. They cannot fully characterize how dynamic oceanographic environmental variations influence internal tides. In realistic oceanic conditions, stratification and background currents significantly modulate the phase velocity and amplitude of internal tides. This modulation significantly enhances the energy proportion of incoherent internal tides. This study proposes applying the Gaussian beam superposition method to the Wavefront model to improve its capability in calculating internal tide energy evolution within complex oceanic environments, with validation provided by two sets of mooring observations from the northern South China Sea. The developed approach demonstrates potential for modeling time-varying patterns in global internal tide energy distribution under varying stratification and background current conditions.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"199 ","pages":"Article 102641"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145416901","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-12-13DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102669
Rodrigo Mogollón , François Colas , Vincent Echevin , Jorge Tam , Dante Espinoza-Morriberón
This study explores three decades (1993–2022) of interannual variability in primary production (PP) using a coupled physical–biogeochemical model. A long-term positive trend in the vertically-integrated PP was found in both the central and northern domains, exceeding 6 mol C m−2 yr−1 per decade, highlighting an increasing contribution of these regions to overall productivity. Over the study period, the region produced a cumulative 8.6 billion metric tons of carbon, underscoring its substantial role as a carbon sink despite its relatively small spatial extent. Interannual climatic events strongly modulated PP. Negative PP anomalies during El Niño events and positive PP anomalies during La Niña phases were primarily constrained within the first 10 m depths. The sensitivity analysis demonstrated that biological drivers, particularly chlorophyll concentration and phytoplankton biomass, dominated PP variability, accounting for over 95% of the explained variance. Physical factors, such as light availability, temperature, played secondary but significant roles during extreme events, modulating PP alongside biological processes. Overall, the findings reveal a resilient yet highly dynamic system, with long-term increases in productivity counterbalanced by episodic disruptions tied to interannual climatic variability. These results emphasize the importance of biological drivers in sustaining productivity and provide valuable insights into the factors shaping the variability and trends in this highly productive marine ecosystem.
本研究利用物理-生物地球化学耦合模型探讨了初级生产力（PP）的30年（1993-2022）年际变化。在中部和北部地区，垂直整合PP呈长期正趋势，超过6 mol C m−2 yr−1 / 10年，突出表明这些地区对整体生产力的贡献越来越大。在研究期间，该地区累计产生了86亿吨碳，尽管其空间范围相对较小，但仍强调了其作为碳汇的重要作用。年际气候事件强烈调节了PP。El Niño期的负PP异常和La Niña期的正PP异常主要局限于前10 m深度。敏感性分析表明，生物驱动因素，特别是叶绿素浓度和浮游植物生物量，主导了PP变异，占解释方差的95%以上。物理因素，如光可用性、温度，在极端事件中起次要但重要的作用，调节PP和生物过程。总体而言，研究结果揭示了一个有弹性但高度动态的系统，生产力的长期增长被与年际气候变化相关的间歇性中断所抵消。这些结果强调了生物驱动因素在维持生产力方面的重要性，并为形成这一高产海洋生态系统的变异性和趋势的因素提供了有价值的见解。
{"title":"Three decades of interannual variability in modeled primary production in the Peruvian Upwelling Region (1993–2022)","authors":"Rodrigo Mogollón , François Colas , Vincent Echevin , Jorge Tam , Dante Espinoza-Morriberón","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102669","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102669","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores three decades (1993–2022) of interannual variability in primary production (PP) using a coupled physical–biogeochemical model. A long-term positive trend in the vertically-integrated PP was found in both the central and northern domains, exceeding 6 mol C m<sup>−2</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup> per decade, highlighting an increasing contribution of these regions to overall productivity. Over the study period, the region produced a cumulative 8.6 billion metric tons of carbon, underscoring its substantial role as a carbon sink despite its relatively small spatial extent. Interannual climatic events strongly modulated PP. Negative PP anomalies during El Niño events and positive PP anomalies during La Niña phases were primarily constrained within the first 10 m depths. The sensitivity analysis demonstrated that biological drivers, particularly chlorophyll concentration and phytoplankton biomass, dominated PP variability, accounting for over 95% of the explained variance. Physical factors, such as light availability, temperature, played secondary but significant roles during extreme events, modulating PP alongside biological processes. Overall, the findings reveal a resilient yet highly dynamic system, with long-term increases in productivity counterbalanced by episodic disruptions tied to interannual climatic variability. These results emphasize the importance of biological drivers in sustaining productivity and provide valuable insights into the factors shaping the variability and trends in this highly productive marine ecosystem.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 102669"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145798076","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-09-12DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102634
Pengpeng Hu , Guang Zhang , Suan Hu , Xiuquan Zhu , Heng Zhang , Wenping Gong
Cross-shelf transport is crucial for material exchange in the estuary-coast-shelf continuum. This study employs the Coupled Ocean-Atmospheric-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system to quantify the cross-shelf transport and investigate the influence of islands on the cross-shelf transport between the Pearl River Estuary (PRE), the adjacent coast and the inner shelf. A budget-based method is applied to calculate the cross-shelf volume transport across key interfaces: the estuary-coast interface (the exit between Lantau Island and Macau at the PRE mouth) and the coast-inner shelf interface (25 m isobath). The results show that the Lantau-Macau exit serves as a key transport gateway for estuary-coast exchange, with a net offshore transport of 1.97 × 103 m3 s−1 in the dry season and 2.61 × 103 m3 s−1 in the wet season, respectively. The dynamical analysis shows that, at the estuary-coast interface, the islands strengthen the onshore horizontal advection, increasing the net onshore transport by 41.37 % in the dry season, and augment the offshore barotropic gradient, increasing the net offshore transport by 422 % in the wet season. At the coast-inner shelf interface, the cross-shelf transport is onshore at 11.35 × 103 m3 s−1 during the dry season and offshore at 0.74 × 103 m3 s−1 during the wet season. During the dry season, the islands enhance both the onshore and offshore transport through increased bottom pressure torque (BPT) and nonlinear advection, respectively, with the two effects nearly balancing each other. However, in the wet season, the islands strengthen the Joint Effect of Baroclinity And Relief (JEBAR), counteracting the advection and making BPT-driven onshore transport to become dominant, thereby enhancing onshore transport by 63 % at this interface. This study has implications for land-ocean interaction research and effective coastal management.
{"title":"Impact of islands on the cross-shelf transport among the Pearl River Estuary, its adjacent coast and inner shelf","authors":"Pengpeng Hu , Guang Zhang , Suan Hu , Xiuquan Zhu , Heng Zhang , Wenping Gong","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102634","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102634","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cross-shelf transport is crucial for material exchange in the estuary-coast-shelf continuum. This study employs the Coupled Ocean-Atmospheric-Wave-Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system to quantify the cross-shelf transport and investigate the influence of islands on the cross-shelf transport between the Pearl River Estuary (PRE), the adjacent coast and the inner shelf. A budget-based method is applied to calculate the cross-shelf volume transport across key interfaces: the estuary-coast interface (the exit between Lantau Island and Macau at the PRE mouth) and the coast-inner shelf interface (25 m isobath). The results show that the Lantau-Macau exit serves as a key transport gateway for estuary-coast exchange, with a net offshore transport of 1.97 × 10<sup>3</sup> m<sup>3</sup> s<sup>−1</sup> in the dry season and 2.61 × 10<sup>3</sup> m<sup>3</sup> s<sup>−1</sup> in the wet season, respectively. The dynamical analysis shows that, at the estuary-coast interface, the islands strengthen the onshore horizontal advection, increasing the net onshore transport by 41.37 % in the dry season, and augment the offshore barotropic gradient, increasing the net offshore transport by 422 % in the wet season. At the coast-inner shelf interface, the cross-shelf transport is onshore at 11.35 × 10<sup>3</sup> m<sup>3</sup> s<sup>−1</sup> during the dry season and offshore at 0.74 × 10<sup>3</sup> m<sup>3</sup> s<sup>−1</sup> during the wet season. During the dry season, the islands enhance both the onshore and offshore transport through increased bottom pressure torque (BPT) and nonlinear advection, respectively, with the two effects nearly balancing each other. However, in the wet season, the islands strengthen the Joint Effect of Baroclinity And Relief (JEBAR), counteracting the advection and making BPT-driven onshore transport to become dominant, thereby enhancing onshore transport by 63 % at this interface. This study has implications for land-ocean interaction research and effective coastal management.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"199 ","pages":"Article 102634"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145097051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-11-02DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102648
Abather J.B. Alhallaf , Javier Vilcáez , Ye Liang
This study evaluates how incorporating meteorological variables affects the predictive accuracy of sea-level variability (SLV) models in the northwestern Arabian Gulf, utilizing SARIMAX, LSTM, and CNN&LSTM models. The analysis indicates that the total monthly meteorological contributions, as a proportion of overall tidal influences on SLV, reach their peak in summer, with July and August exhibiting the highest total monthly weights, aligning with previous studies. Air Temperature (AT) is the principal parameter influencing SLV, accounting for a maximum of 28.35% in August, highlighting climate change's persistence on sea level. The models consistently identify Atmospheric Pressure (AP) as a consistent contributor with a minor negative effect; Wind Speed (WS), Wind Direction (WD), and Gust Speed (GS) exhibit mixed effects depending on the month. The LSTM and CNN&LSTM models also indicate that some factors inversely affect sea-level changes. This study highlights the significance of integrating metrological factors into sea-level forecasting models in the northwestern Arabian Gulf to enhance flood prediction. It has potential applications in disaster preparedness and the execution of coastal flooding mitigation strategies.
{"title":"Investigating the impact of meteorological factors on sea-level variability in the northwestern Arabian gulf: A case study using deep learning and advanced statistical models for enhanced forecasting","authors":"Abather J.B. Alhallaf , Javier Vilcáez , Ye Liang","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102648","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102648","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study evaluates how incorporating meteorological variables affects the predictive accuracy of sea-level variability (SLV) models in the northwestern Arabian Gulf, utilizing SARIMAX, LSTM, and CNN&LSTM models. The analysis indicates that the total monthly meteorological contributions, as a proportion of overall tidal influences on SLV, reach their peak in summer, with July and August exhibiting the highest total monthly weights, aligning with previous studies. Air Temperature (AT) is the principal parameter influencing SLV, accounting for a maximum of 28.35% in August, highlighting climate change's persistence on sea level. The models consistently identify Atmospheric Pressure (AP) as a consistent contributor with a minor negative effect; Wind Speed (WS), Wind Direction (WD), and Gust Speed (GS) exhibit mixed effects depending on the month. The LSTM and CNN&LSTM models also indicate that some factors inversely affect sea-level changes. This study highlights the significance of integrating metrological factors into sea-level forecasting models in the northwestern Arabian Gulf to enhance flood prediction. It has potential applications in disaster preparedness and the execution of coastal flooding mitigation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"199 ","pages":"Article 102648"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145466624","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2026-01-06DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2026.102681
Jie Yu , David D. Flagg , Tommy G. Jensen , Tim J. Campbell , Qing Wang , Denny P. Alappattu
We present a recent study to implement and test schemes for diagnostic calculations of skin sea surface temperature in the Navy’s Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM). This includes three schemes for estimating the cool anomaly in the viscous sublayer (i.e., the ocean skin), and a fourth scheme that adds an estimate of a warm anomaly in the solar radiation-driven, thermally stratified diurnal layer at near-surface depths. Applications of these schemes are made, and their performances are evaluated against field measurements from the Coupled Air-Sea Processes and Electromagnetic Ducting Research East campaign (CASPER-East), showing overall good agreements. The statistics of the model-observation comparisons are similar and do not indicate any systematic bias towards any scheme, but differences in the model performances are noticeable and vary depending on the surface wind and solar conditions. To understand the discrepancies among the schemes, inter-model comparisons are analyzed based on the conditions of surface wind stress and solar radiation flux. The issues associated with making the warm-layer correction are discussed, in particular, including the sensitivity of the diagnostic warm-layer anomaly to the layer thickness specified a priori, and the risk of double-counting the effect of solar radiation penetration when using the high-resolution NCOM temperature fields.
{"title":"Skin sea surface temperature diagnostics in a regional ocean model","authors":"Jie Yu , David D. Flagg , Tommy G. Jensen , Tim J. Campbell , Qing Wang , Denny P. Alappattu","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2026.102681","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2026.102681","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We present a recent study to implement and test schemes for diagnostic calculations of skin sea surface temperature in the Navy’s Coastal Ocean Model (NCOM). This includes three schemes for estimating the cool anomaly in the viscous sublayer (i.e., the ocean skin), and a fourth scheme that adds an estimate of a warm anomaly in the solar radiation-driven, thermally stratified diurnal layer at near-surface depths. Applications of these schemes are made, and their performances are evaluated against field measurements from the Coupled Air-Sea Processes and Electromagnetic Ducting Research East campaign (CASPER-East), showing overall good agreements. The statistics of the model-observation comparisons are similar and do not indicate any systematic bias towards any scheme, but differences in the model performances are noticeable and vary depending on the surface wind and solar conditions. To understand the discrepancies among the schemes, inter-model comparisons are analyzed based on the conditions of surface wind stress and solar radiation flux. The issues associated with making the warm-layer correction are discussed, in particular, including the sensitivity of the diagnostic warm-layer anomaly to the layer thickness specified <em>a priori</em>, and the risk of double-counting the effect of solar radiation penetration when using the high-resolution NCOM temperature fields.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 102681"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145938699","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-10-09DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102636
Julie Cheynel , Lucia Pineau-Guillou , Pascal Lazure , Marta Marcos , Florent Lyard , Nicolas Raillard
Changes in extreme sea levels, combined with the growth of coastal population, are critical factors in evaluating the risks related to coastal flooding. Thus, studying the variability and trends of storm surges, a major contributor to extreme sea levels, becomes essential for coastal protection policies. We developed in the North Atlantic the first hourly surge hindcast covering the full 20th century (1900–2015) on a 0.1°grid, and called ClimEx hindcast. We validated the hindcast against 34 long-term tide gauges. The model shows overall very good performance for surges (Root Mean Square Error of 9.3 cm on average), and good performance for extreme surges, despite an overall underestimation. To investigate the variability and trends in storm surges, we performed a non-stationary extreme value analysis on modeled and observed storm surges. The seasonality of storm surges is highly dependent on the area. The seasonal amplitude varies from typically 10 cm, to more than 40 cm in the North Sea. The storm surge season occurs around December–January in the north of the domain (above 40°N), due to winter extra-tropical cyclones, and around September–October in the south-west, due to tropical cyclones. The dependence of storm surges with the North Atlantic Oscillation extends from the coasts to the deep ocean, and is positive above 50°N and negative below. Observed storm surges show mostly non significant or small trends ( 1 mm/yr), while the model displays positive trends almost everywhere, possibly due to inhomogeneities in the atmospheric forcing dataset prior to 1950.
{"title":"A secular sea level hindcast (1900–2015) to investigate extreme surges variability and trends in the North Atlantic","authors":"Julie Cheynel , Lucia Pineau-Guillou , Pascal Lazure , Marta Marcos , Florent Lyard , Nicolas Raillard","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102636","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102636","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Changes in extreme sea levels, combined with the growth of coastal population, are critical factors in evaluating the risks related to coastal flooding. Thus, studying the variability and trends of storm surges, a major contributor to extreme sea levels, becomes essential for coastal protection policies. We developed in the North Atlantic the first hourly surge hindcast covering the full 20th century (1900–2015) on a 0.1°grid, and called ClimEx hindcast. We validated the hindcast against 34 long-term tide gauges. The model shows overall very good performance for surges (Root Mean Square Error of 9.3 cm on average), and good performance for extreme surges, despite an overall underestimation. To investigate the variability and trends in storm surges, we performed a non-stationary extreme value analysis on modeled and observed storm surges. The seasonality of storm surges is highly dependent on the area. The seasonal amplitude varies from typically 10 cm, to more than 40 cm in the North Sea. The storm surge season occurs around December–January in the north of the domain (above 40°N), due to winter extra-tropical cyclones, and around September–October in the south-west, due to tropical cyclones. The dependence of storm surges with the North Atlantic Oscillation extends from the coasts to the deep ocean, and is positive above 50°N and negative below. Observed storm surges show mostly non significant or small trends (<span><math><mrow><mo><</mo><mo>±</mo></mrow></math></span> 1 mm/yr), while the model displays positive trends almost everywhere, possibly due to inhomogeneities in the atmospheric forcing dataset prior to 1950.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"199 ","pages":"Article 102636"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145267924","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2026-01-03DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2026.102680
Wenfan Wu , Zhengui Wang , Y Joseph Zhang , Jian Shen , Richard Tian , Lewis C Linker , Carl F Cerco
Estuaries, as transitional zones between land and ocean, exhibit highly nonlinear, cross-scale hydrodynamic processes that present substantial challenges for numerical modeling. Using Chesapeake Bay as an example, we demonstrate a physically based calibration procedure with observation-derived parametrizations, together with a high-resolution unstructured model without bathymetry smoothing. The results indicate that highly turbid water greatly affects the downward penetration of solar radiation, particularly in the upper Bay and tributaries. By incorporating the spatially varying Jerlov water types derived from satellite-based Kd490 data, we systematically improve water temperature simulations across the Bay, reducing the average RMSE to 0.484 °C (0.775 °C) for surface (bottom) temperature at 121 long-term monitoring stations maintained by EPA's Chesapeake Bay Program. Moreover, the presence of mud layers is found to facilitate tidal propagation in tributaries, thereby enhancing saltwater intrusion there. By applying spatially varying bottom drag coefficients calculated from the observed sediment types, we achieve significant improvements in salinity simulations, with an average RMSE of 0.809 PSU (1.331 PSU) for surface (bottom) salinity. In general, the present study reduces temperature and salinity errors by ∼60 % compared to previous modeling studies in the Bay. This study underscores the advantages of physically based calibration procedures that help make the model results more defensible.
{"title":"Improving cross-scale hydrodynamic simulations in the Chesapeake Bay with physically based calibration","authors":"Wenfan Wu , Zhengui Wang , Y Joseph Zhang , Jian Shen , Richard Tian , Lewis C Linker , Carl F Cerco","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2026.102680","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2026.102680","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Estuaries, as transitional zones between land and ocean, exhibit highly nonlinear, cross-scale hydrodynamic processes that present substantial challenges for numerical modeling. Using Chesapeake Bay as an example, we demonstrate a physically based calibration procedure with observation-derived parametrizations, together with a high-resolution unstructured model without bathymetry smoothing. The results indicate that highly turbid water greatly affects the downward penetration of solar radiation, particularly in the upper Bay and tributaries. By incorporating the spatially varying Jerlov water types derived from satellite-based Kd490 data, we systematically improve water temperature simulations across the Bay, reducing the average RMSE to 0.484 °C (0.775 °C) for surface (bottom) temperature at 121 long-term monitoring stations maintained by EPA's Chesapeake Bay Program. Moreover, the presence of mud layers is found to facilitate tidal propagation in tributaries, thereby enhancing saltwater intrusion there. By applying spatially varying bottom drag coefficients calculated from the observed sediment types, we achieve significant improvements in salinity simulations, with an average RMSE of 0.809 PSU (1.331 PSU) for surface (bottom) salinity. In general, the present study reduces temperature and salinity errors by ∼60 % compared to previous modeling studies in the Bay. This study underscores the advantages of physically based calibration procedures that help make the model results more defensible.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 102680"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145976936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-10-28DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102643
Fei Ye , Y. Joseph Zhang , Haocheng Yu , Felicio Cassalho , Julio Zyserman , Soroosh Mani , Saeed Moghimi , Hyungju Yoo , Greg Seroka , Zizang Yang , Edward Myers
Accurate simulation of compound flooding in the coastal transition zone requires a fully coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic modeling system to capture the complex interactions between inland and oceanic floodwaters. Despite recent advances in fully coupled 3D modeling frameworks, significant challenges persist in resolving flow through intricate river networks, especially where small channels are poorly represented due to limitations in digital elevation models (DEMs). This study addresses these challenges by enhancing the model meshing process and evaluating coupling strategies in the lower Mississippi River region, a representative coastal transition zone with a dense and complex river network. We improve a previously developed semi-automatic meshing approach by incorporating the National Hydrography Dataset to ensure clean delineation and connectivity of small channels where DEM uncertainties often cause artificial blockages. We also assess two strategies for integrating hydrologic model outputs into the hydrodynamic domain: (1) a conventional “hand-off” method that imposes freshwater streamflows at the land boundary combined with spatially varying precipitation, and (2) an alternative scheme that distributes hydrologic outputs at every resolved channel within the hydrodynamic mesh. Results show that the enhanced mesh, combined with updated topographic data, substantially reduces domain-wide bias and improves water-level skill at inland USGS stations. The alternative coupling scheme produces results comparable to the base method, providing an extensible framework for potential future development. By improving inland channel resolution and establishing a pathway for deeper coupling with hydrologic models, this work strengthens the scientific foundation and contributes to the operational readiness of compound flood forecasting.
{"title":"Improving compound flood modeling skill in coastal transition zones","authors":"Fei Ye , Y. Joseph Zhang , Haocheng Yu , Felicio Cassalho , Julio Zyserman , Soroosh Mani , Saeed Moghimi , Hyungju Yoo , Greg Seroka , Zizang Yang , Edward Myers","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102643","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102643","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate simulation of compound flooding in the coastal transition zone requires a fully coupled hydrologic–hydrodynamic modeling system to capture the complex interactions between inland and oceanic floodwaters. Despite recent advances in fully coupled 3D modeling frameworks, significant challenges persist in resolving flow through intricate river networks, especially where small channels are poorly represented due to limitations in digital elevation models (DEMs). This study addresses these challenges by enhancing the model meshing process and evaluating coupling strategies in the lower Mississippi River region, a representative coastal transition zone with a dense and complex river network. We improve a previously developed semi-automatic meshing approach by incorporating the National Hydrography Dataset to ensure clean delineation and connectivity of small channels where DEM uncertainties often cause artificial blockages. We also assess two strategies for integrating hydrologic model outputs into the hydrodynamic domain: (1) a conventional “hand-off” method that imposes freshwater streamflows at the land boundary combined with spatially varying precipitation, and (2) an alternative scheme that distributes hydrologic outputs at every resolved channel within the hydrodynamic mesh. Results show that the enhanced mesh, combined with updated topographic data, substantially reduces domain-wide bias and improves water-level skill at inland USGS stations. The alternative coupling scheme produces results comparable to the base method, providing an extensible framework for potential future development. By improving inland channel resolution and establishing a pathway for deeper coupling with hydrologic models, this work strengthens the scientific foundation and contributes to the operational readiness of compound flood forecasting.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"199 ","pages":"Article 102643"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145466587","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-12-22DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102675
Óscar A. Caballero-Martínez , Carmen Zarzuelo , Gabriel Navarro , I. Emma Huertas , Antonio Tovar-Sánchez , Eugenio Fraile-Nuez , Marcos Larrad-Revuelto , Manuel Díez-Minguito
Port Foster (Deception Island, Antarctica) is a semi-enclosed flooded caldera, connected to the Southern Ocean through its narrow inlet (Neptune’s Bellows), whereby the water exchange with the Bransfield Strait takes place. This study addresses tidally-induced sea level variations and horizontal currents at intratidal and subtidal time scales in Port Foster, focusing on the inlet. The approach relies on a comprehensive field campaign and simulations performed with a complex computational hydrodynamical model. Tides are synchronous, mesotidal, and mixed, mainly semidiurnal. Phase lags between water levels and horizontal currents are near . Therefore, Port Foster is dynamically short regarding tidal propagation. The constituent dominates water levels and currents, with a weak ebb dominance observed. At a tidal scale, peak currents occur in Neptune’s Bellows (with modelled data close to ) with an east–west direction in tidal ellipses, while inside Port Foster, currents are much weaker (). The numerical model reveals complex semidiurnal circulation in the inlet, including a counter-clockwise eddy forming during flood periods. This pattern produces different rotation directions of the semidiurnal and diurnal tidal ellipses. At a subtidal scale, residual currents attain values up to in the inlet. They are negligible elsewhere. The potential residual bedload transport exhibits a pattern similar to that of the residual current. Residual eddies on either side of Neptune’s Bellows, with opposing rotations, indicate limited water exchange between Port Foster and the Bransfield Strait, resulting in a flushing time of approximately 75 days.
{"title":"Barotropic tides and residual transport in Port Foster (Deception Island, Antarctica)","authors":"Óscar A. Caballero-Martínez , Carmen Zarzuelo , Gabriel Navarro , I. Emma Huertas , Antonio Tovar-Sánchez , Eugenio Fraile-Nuez , Marcos Larrad-Revuelto , Manuel Díez-Minguito","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102675","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102675","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Port Foster (Deception Island, Antarctica) is a semi-enclosed flooded caldera, connected to the Southern Ocean through its narrow inlet (Neptune’s Bellows), whereby the water exchange with the Bransfield Strait takes place. This study addresses tidally-induced sea level variations and horizontal currents at intratidal and subtidal time scales in Port Foster, focusing on the inlet. The approach relies on a comprehensive field campaign and simulations performed with a complex computational hydrodynamical model. Tides are synchronous, mesotidal, and mixed, mainly semidiurnal. Phase lags between water levels and horizontal currents are near <span><math><mrow><mi>π</mi><mo>/</mo><mn>2</mn></mrow></math></span>. Therefore, Port Foster is dynamically short regarding tidal propagation. The <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>M</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> constituent dominates water levels and currents, with a weak ebb dominance observed. At a tidal scale, peak currents occur in Neptune’s Bellows (with modelled data close to <span><math><mrow><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>90</mn><mspace></mspace><mi>m</mi><mspace></mspace><msup><mrow><mi>s</mi></mrow><mrow><mtext>-</mtext><mn>1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span>) with an east–west direction in tidal ellipses, while inside Port Foster, currents are much weaker (<span><math><mrow><mo>∼</mo><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>05</mn><mspace></mspace><mi>m</mi><mspace></mspace><msup><mrow><mi>s</mi></mrow><mrow><mtext>-</mtext><mn>1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span>). The numerical model reveals complex semidiurnal circulation in the inlet, including a counter-clockwise eddy forming during flood periods. This pattern produces different rotation directions of the semidiurnal and diurnal tidal ellipses. At a subtidal scale, residual currents attain values up to <span><math><mrow><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>10</mn><mspace></mspace><mi>m</mi><mspace></mspace><msup><mrow><mi>s</mi></mrow><mrow><mtext>-</mtext><mn>1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span> in the inlet. They are negligible elsewhere. The potential residual bedload transport exhibits a pattern similar to that of the residual current. Residual eddies on either side of Neptune’s Bellows, with opposing rotations, indicate limited water exchange between Port Foster and the Bransfield Strait, resulting in a flushing time of approximately 75 days.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 102675"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2026-02-01Epub Date: 2025-09-23DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102635
Martin Henke , Zhaoqing Yang
Cook Inlet, Alaska is a unique tidal estuary with extreme tidal regimes and the presence of seasonal ice coverage. In this study, the wave dynamics of Cook Inlet are explored through analysis of in-situ wave observations and spectral wave model simulations. The analysis first assesses the wave climate from an existing dataset — showing low-energy wave conditions as a mean state for the upper and lower inlets. Following, wave observations within the inlet are analyzed to reveal modulation by tidal constituents. Finally, a region-specific, ocean circulation coupled, spectral wave model is run over a storm event with current and ice forcings present. This simulation reveals that under extreme wind conditions, large waves can exceed 2 m and 6 m in the upper and lower inlet sections. Simulations results demonstrate that increases in significant wave height up to 1 m are observed due to the effects of wave–current interaction on opposing current gradients. This analysis provides insight into how the tidal phase can amplify or diminish wave energy over large extents of the inlet and the role sea ice plays in limiting regional wave energy. These outcomes demonstrate the combined influence of environmental variables current, water levels, and ice influencing wave dynamics and stress the importance of their implementation in wave modeling frameworks where applicable.
{"title":"The influence of tidal currents and sea ice on wave dynamics in Cook Inlet, Alaska","authors":"Martin Henke , Zhaoqing Yang","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102635","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102635","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Cook Inlet, Alaska is a unique tidal estuary with extreme tidal regimes and the presence of seasonal ice coverage. In this study, the wave dynamics of Cook Inlet are explored through analysis of in-situ wave observations and spectral wave model simulations. The analysis first assesses the wave climate from an existing dataset — showing low-energy wave conditions as a mean state for the upper and lower inlets. Following, wave observations within the inlet are analyzed to reveal modulation by tidal constituents. Finally, a region-specific, ocean circulation coupled, spectral wave model is run over a storm event with current and ice forcings present. This simulation reveals that under extreme wind conditions, large waves can exceed 2 m and 6 m in the upper and lower inlet sections. Simulations results demonstrate that increases in significant wave height up to 1 m are observed due to the effects of wave–current interaction on opposing current gradients. This analysis provides insight into how the tidal phase can amplify or diminish wave energy over large extents of the inlet and the role sea ice plays in limiting regional wave energy. These outcomes demonstrate the combined influence of environmental variables current, water levels, and ice influencing wave dynamics and stress the importance of their implementation in wave modeling frameworks where applicable.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"199 ","pages":"Article 102635"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2026-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145221518","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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