Pub Date : 2025-11-22DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102656
Susmita Saha , Satyasaran Changdar , Soumen De
Solving the shallow water equations is essential in science and engineering for understanding and predicting geophysical phenomena such as atmospheric and oceanic flows. Physics-informed machine learning has emerged as a powerful alternative to traditional numerical methods, avoiding the complexities of grid generation and enabling mesh-free solutions to partial differential equations. In this study, we apply a sequential multi-model approach within a time-decomposed framework to solve the shallow water equations on a rotating sphere, in the context of meteorological applications. We employed advanced physics-informed neural networks integrated with deep learning, using diverse network architectures to conduct a detailed analysis of cosine bell advection across multiple orientations on the Earth. The results demonstrate high predictive accuracy, underscoring the method’s transformative potential for geophysical fluid dynamics. We also implemented a finite difference upwind scheme and a fully data-driven deep neural network to supplement the validation process and comparative analysis. Additionally, we perform a sensitivity analysis to examine the influence of physics-informed error terms on the training dynamics of the networks.
{"title":"Multi-model physics informed neural networks to the shallow water equations for cosine bell advection","authors":"Susmita Saha , Satyasaran Changdar , Soumen De","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102656","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102656","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Solving the shallow water equations is essential in science and engineering for understanding and predicting geophysical phenomena such as atmospheric and oceanic flows. Physics-informed machine learning has emerged as a powerful alternative to traditional numerical methods, avoiding the complexities of grid generation and enabling mesh-free solutions to partial differential equations. In this study, we apply a sequential multi-model approach within a time-decomposed framework to solve the shallow water equations on a rotating sphere, in the context of meteorological applications. We employed advanced physics-informed neural networks integrated with deep learning, using diverse network architectures to conduct a detailed analysis of cosine bell advection across multiple orientations on the Earth. The results demonstrate high predictive accuracy, underscoring the method’s transformative potential for geophysical fluid dynamics. We also implemented a finite difference upwind scheme and a fully data-driven deep neural network to supplement the validation process and comparative analysis. Additionally, we perform a sensitivity analysis to examine the influence of physics-informed error terms on the training dynamics of the networks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"199 ","pages":"Article 102656"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145614617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Submesoscale processes play a key role in re-stratifying the upper ocean through inducing strong vertical buoyancy flux (VBF). Because the prevailing climate and global ocean models are unable to resolve submesoscale processes, submesoscale VBF needs to be parameterized in models to reduce the associated simulation bias. Recently, Zhang et al. (2023) proposed a new VBF parameterization which simultaneously considers submesoscale baroclinic instability and strain-induced frontogenesis (Zhang23 parameterization hereafter). In this study, we implement the Zhang23 parameterization in a mesoscale-resolving (9-km) configuration of Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) for the North Pacific, and assess its impact by comparing results with observations and a submesoscale-resolving (1-km) simulation. The parameterized VBFs have similar magnitudes and spatial patterns with those derived from the 1-km simulation, demonstrating the effectiveness of Zhang23 parameterization. Additionally, the Zhang23 parameterization yields significantly reduced mixed-layer depth (MLD) and strengthened upper-ocean stratification in winter compared with those in the control run without this parameterization. In the Kuroshio Extension region, the sensitivity run including the Zhang23 parameterization reduces the deep MLD bias by 94 % and yields an upper-ocean stratification in better agreement with a submesoscale-resolving simulation. These results show that the Zhang23 parameterization has a good potential to improve the simulation of upper-ocean processes in mesoscale-resolving models.
{"title":"Implementation and evaluation of a new parameterization of submesoscale vertical flux in a mesoscale-resolving model in the North Pacific","authors":"Zhe Feng , Zhiwei Zhang , Jinchao Zhang , Wenda Zhang , Man Yuan , Zhao Jing , Wei Zhao , Jiwei Tian","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102655","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102655","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Submesoscale processes play a key role in re-stratifying the upper ocean through inducing strong vertical buoyancy flux (VBF). Because the prevailing climate and global ocean models are unable to resolve submesoscale processes, submesoscale VBF needs to be parameterized in models to reduce the associated simulation bias. Recently, Zhang et al. (2023) proposed a new VBF parameterization which simultaneously considers submesoscale baroclinic instability and strain-induced frontogenesis (Zhang23 parameterization hereafter). In this study, we implement the Zhang23 parameterization in a mesoscale-resolving (9-km) configuration of Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) for the North Pacific, and assess its impact by comparing results with observations and a submesoscale-resolving (1-km) simulation. The parameterized VBFs have similar magnitudes and spatial patterns with those derived from the 1-km simulation, demonstrating the effectiveness of Zhang23 parameterization. Additionally, the Zhang23 parameterization yields significantly reduced mixed-layer depth (MLD) and strengthened upper-ocean stratification in winter compared with those in the control run without this parameterization. In the Kuroshio Extension region, the sensitivity run including the Zhang23 parameterization reduces the deep MLD bias by 94 % and yields an upper-ocean stratification in better agreement with a submesoscale-resolving simulation. These results show that the Zhang23 parameterization has a good potential to improve the simulation of upper-ocean processes in mesoscale-resolving models.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"199 ","pages":"Article 102655"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145614618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Significant wave height (WVHT) has been identified as a key influencing factor in the research fields of coastal engineering, naval architecture and ocean engineering, maritime management, and other related disciplines. The wave height sequences are always featured as nonlinear and non-stationary, thus seriously concerned in ship voyage planning and route selection. The refined WVHT prediction will support the ship speed optimization and energy efficiency management. A novel hybrid model based on Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) and Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) has been proposed. Intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) of WVHT sequence were obtained by VMD, which were subsequently adopted as model inputs of GMDH. The contribution of various input variables was explored through sensitivity analysis. The hybrid VMD-GMDH model was validated through field dataset of National Data Buoy Center, and evaluated with different metrics. Its performance was further compared with four other models, namely GMDH, EMD-GMDH, GRU and VMD-LSTM. The results highlight the importance of data preprocessing through VMD and the prediction accuracy is greatly improved. Specifically, the Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) decrease by 29.1%, 15.8%, 18.6% and 15.8%, respectively. The correlation coefficient (R2) is improved by 3.32%. The novel hybrid VMD-GMDH model provides an effective tool for WVHT prediction and would support the intelligent oceanographic studies.
{"title":"Significant wave height prediction using a novel hybrid model of group method of data handling","authors":"Naiwen Mei , Zhonglian Jiang , Bingchang Weng , Zhen Yu , Shijun Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102654","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102654","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Significant wave height (WVHT) has been identified as a key influencing factor in the research fields of coastal engineering, naval architecture and ocean engineering, maritime management, and other related disciplines. The wave height sequences are always featured as nonlinear and non-stationary, thus seriously concerned in ship voyage planning and route selection. The refined WVHT prediction will support the ship speed optimization and energy efficiency management. A novel hybrid model based on Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) and Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) has been proposed. Intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) of WVHT sequence were obtained by VMD, which were subsequently adopted as model inputs of GMDH. The contribution of various input variables was explored through sensitivity analysis. The hybrid VMD-GMDH model was validated through field dataset of National Data Buoy Center, and evaluated with different metrics. Its performance was further compared with four other models, namely GMDH, EMD-GMDH, GRU and VMD-LSTM. The results highlight the importance of data preprocessing through VMD and the prediction accuracy is greatly improved. Specifically, the Mean Squared Error (<em>MSE</em>), Root Mean Squared Error (<em>RMSE</em>), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (<em>MAPE</em>) and Mean Absolute Error (<em>MAE</em>) decrease by 29.1%, 15.8%, 18.6% and 15.8%, respectively. The correlation coefficient (<em>R</em><sup>2</sup>) is improved by 3.32%. The novel hybrid VMD-GMDH model provides an effective tool for WVHT prediction and would support the intelligent oceanographic studies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"199 ","pages":"Article 102654"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145568227","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-14DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102653
Rui Li , Huy Quang Tran , Jak McCarroll , Alexander V. Babanin
This study investigates nonlinear surges and extreme wind-wave patterns off the coast of Victoria by simulating sea level rise (SLR) scenarios of 0.5, 0.8, 1.0 and 1.4 meters alongside a 31-year hindcast (1990–2020) using the validated SCHISM-WWMIII coupled wave-circulation model. Model simulations were compared with observational data, confirming the accuracy of the results. Our findings indicate that sea levels along the Victorian coast have been rising at a rate of 1.46 × 10⁻2 cm/year, while wave heights in the Southern Ocean have also increased over time. However, the rate of wave height increase is lower along the Victorian coast compared to the Southern Ocean. Due to island blocking, mean wave heights in Bass Strait remain lower than those in the Southern Ocean, yet extreme water levels in the strait exceed those in the open ocean. The impact of SLR is most pronounced in the waters south of Tasmania, where maximum elevations exceed 1.2 meters under the 1.0-meter SLR scenario. SLR contributes to higher mean water levels and increased wave heights off the coast of Victoria, underscoring the complex interactions between rising sea levels and coastal wave dynamics. Wave direction and peak period were also examined, but their changes under SLR scenarios were found to be minimal. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating both SLR and wave dynamics into coastal hazard assessments to better understand future risks.
{"title":"Assessing the effects of sea level rise on ocean waves and surge events along the victorian coast","authors":"Rui Li , Huy Quang Tran , Jak McCarroll , Alexander V. Babanin","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102653","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102653","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates nonlinear surges and extreme wind-wave patterns off the coast of Victoria by simulating sea level rise (SLR) scenarios of 0.5, 0.8, 1.0 and 1.4 meters alongside a 31-year hindcast (1990–2020) using the validated SCHISM-WWMIII coupled wave-circulation model. Model simulations were compared with observational data, confirming the accuracy of the results. Our findings indicate that sea levels along the Victorian coast have been rising at a rate of 1.46 × 10<sup>⁻</sup><sup>2</sup> cm/year, while wave heights in the Southern Ocean have also increased over time. However, the rate of wave height increase is lower along the Victorian coast compared to the Southern Ocean. Due to island blocking, mean wave heights in Bass Strait remain lower than those in the Southern Ocean, yet extreme water levels in the strait exceed those in the open ocean. The impact of SLR is most pronounced in the waters south of Tasmania, where maximum elevations exceed 1.2 meters under the 1.0-meter SLR scenario. SLR contributes to higher mean water levels and increased wave heights off the coast of Victoria, underscoring the complex interactions between rising sea levels and coastal wave dynamics. Wave direction and peak period were also examined, but their changes under SLR scenarios were found to be minimal. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating both SLR and wave dynamics into coastal hazard assessments to better understand future risks.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"199 ","pages":"Article 102653"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145568226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-07DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102646
Raisha Lovindeer , Elizabeth A. Fulton , Susan E. Allen , Javier Porobic , Douglas J. Latornell , Hem Nalini Morzaria-Luna , Alaia Morell
Biological risk assessment modelling for oil spills using whole-of-ecosystem models has the benefit of assessing species-specific toxicology and the chronic impact of oil spills by layering these impacts on top of the already-built ecosystem within the model. In deterministic models this approach requires tracking contaminants as they move throughout the biology of the ecosystem, from uptake to loss. Here we consolidate, modify, and add to existing equations to produce a synergistic set that can be used to define the impact of contaminants on biological groups throughout the food web. We demonstrate how these equations work, individually as well as in tandem, for oil-based contaminants by implementing them in a three-dimensional marine ecosystem model. We assess the sensitivity of parameters within these equations, showing the impact on the model outcome. Although we focus on oil-based contaminants in our examples, the equations presented can be applied to any contaminants in the aquatic or marine environment.
{"title":"Equations for modelling contaminant impacts throughout a marine ecosystem","authors":"Raisha Lovindeer , Elizabeth A. Fulton , Susan E. Allen , Javier Porobic , Douglas J. Latornell , Hem Nalini Morzaria-Luna , Alaia Morell","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102646","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102646","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Biological risk assessment modelling for oil spills using whole-of-ecosystem models has the benefit of assessing species-specific toxicology and the chronic impact of oil spills by layering these impacts on top of the already-built ecosystem within the model. In deterministic models this approach requires tracking contaminants as they move throughout the biology of the ecosystem, from uptake to loss. Here we consolidate, modify, and add to existing equations to produce a synergistic set that can be used to define the impact of contaminants on biological groups throughout the food web. We demonstrate how these equations work, individually as well as in tandem, for oil-based contaminants by implementing them in a three-dimensional marine ecosystem model. We assess the sensitivity of parameters within these equations, showing the impact on the model outcome. Although we focus on oil-based contaminants in our examples, the equations presented can be applied to any contaminants in the aquatic or marine environment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"199 ","pages":"Article 102646"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145516669","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-05DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102651
Muhammad Irham Sahana , Ryotaro Fuji , Hirofumi Hinata
High-frequency (HF) radar has become a promising tool for tsunami forecasting based on assimilation of surface current data. However, the accuracy of HF radar-derived velocity vectors is affected by multiple error sources, including sea surface conditions, ionospheric disturbances, human activities, and inherent measurement errors associated with the beam-crossing angles. If not properly accounted for, these errors can degrade the tsunami forecast accuracy. This study explored the influence of realistic bathymetry on the propagation and amplification of noise-induced (measurement error-induced) tsunamis. These tsunamis caused localized variations in the assimilated and forecasted tsunami heights, particularly through refraction and shoaling. Measurement error assimilation with energy ray tracing has significant implications for tsunami early warning systems: it helps identify regions likely to undergo noise-induced tsunamis originating from radar coverage. By incorporating beam-angle-dependent measurement errors into the optimal interpolation method and considering actual bathymetry, we achieved stable and accurate tsunami forecasts for the Mw 9.0 Nankai Trough earthquake scenario. The method predicted maximum coastal tsunami heights 23–78 min before they arrived at Osaka Bay, with 92 % forecast accuracy and 0.8 % standard deviation across 15 experiments. In addition, careful tuning of the optimal characteristic length (L) in relation to tsunami velocities and observation errors was found to be crucial for balancing the suppression of noise-induced tsunamis and retention of tsunami signals. Both excessively small and large values of L degraded the performance, underscoring the importance of dynamic tuning for operational systems. Future research should focus on optimizing the assimilation parameters by monitoring the measurement error status.
{"title":"Tsunami data assimilation and forecast in the Kii Channel using high-frequency radar: Bathymetry effects on the propagation of measurement errors","authors":"Muhammad Irham Sahana , Ryotaro Fuji , Hirofumi Hinata","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102651","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102651","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>High-frequency (HF) radar has become a promising tool for tsunami forecasting based on assimilation of surface current data. However, the accuracy of HF radar-derived velocity vectors is affected by multiple error sources, including sea surface conditions, ionospheric disturbances, human activities, and inherent measurement errors associated with the beam-crossing angles. If not properly accounted for, these errors can degrade the tsunami forecast accuracy. This study explored the influence of realistic bathymetry on the propagation and amplification of noise-induced (measurement error-induced) tsunamis. These tsunamis caused localized variations in the assimilated and forecasted tsunami heights, particularly through refraction and shoaling. Measurement error assimilation with energy ray tracing has significant implications for tsunami early warning systems: it helps identify regions likely to undergo noise-induced tsunamis originating from radar coverage. By incorporating beam-angle-dependent measurement errors into the optimal interpolation method and considering actual bathymetry, we achieved stable and accurate tsunami forecasts for the Mw 9.0 Nankai Trough earthquake scenario. The method predicted maximum coastal tsunami heights 23–78 min before they arrived at Osaka Bay, with 92 % forecast accuracy and 0.8 % standard deviation across 15 experiments. In addition, careful tuning of the optimal characteristic length (<em>L</em>) in relation to tsunami velocities and observation errors was found to be crucial for balancing the suppression of noise-induced tsunamis and retention of tsunami signals. Both excessively small and large values of <em>L</em> degraded the performance, underscoring the importance of dynamic tuning for operational systems. Future research should focus on optimizing the assimilation parameters by monitoring the measurement error status.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"199 ","pages":"Article 102651"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145568225","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-03DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102652
Yi Liu , Zhen-Zhong Hu , Robert H. Richmond , Jian-Min Zhang , Chang Zhao , Shengli Chen
The ALPS treated water has been discharged into the Pacific Ocean since August 2023. This study investigates this discharge using a newly developed three-dimensional dispersion model that incorporates migration, diffusion, and decay processes of radionuclides. A simulation over ten years is conducted using reanalyzed oceanographic data. The results indicate that tritium released from Fukushima primarily disperses eastward along the 35°N latitude line. In later stages, local concentration peaks emerge in the northeastern Pacific, exceeding those in the northwest Pacific. For the vertical distribution, the tritium is generally reduced greatly with depth, but displays maximum values at subsurface layer (∼50m) in some regions. The concentration reaches a steady state over time, defined as the characteristic concentration, whose spatial distribution and attainment time are detailed. For major fishing grounds in the Pacific Ocean, the Hokkaido area shows the highest tritium levels, followed by Hawaii, California, Zhoushan, the Korean Peninsula, Mexico, the Philippines, Alaska, and Peru in descending order. Critically, simulated tritium concentrations in most North Pacific regions (∼0.01 Bq/m3) remain orders of magnitude below natural background levels (∼50 Bq/m3). This research elucidates three-dimensional radionuclide dispersion mechanisms in global oceans, providing a quantitative methodology for future marine emergency response and contributing to long-term marine conservation efforts.
{"title":"Three-dimensional spatiotemporal simulation of tritium discharge from Fukushima","authors":"Yi Liu , Zhen-Zhong Hu , Robert H. Richmond , Jian-Min Zhang , Chang Zhao , Shengli Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102652","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102652","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The ALPS treated water has been discharged into the Pacific Ocean since August 2023. This study investigates this discharge using a newly developed three-dimensional dispersion model that incorporates migration, diffusion, and decay processes of radionuclides. A simulation over ten years is conducted using reanalyzed oceanographic data. The results indicate that tritium released from Fukushima primarily disperses eastward along the 35°N latitude line. In later stages, local concentration peaks emerge in the northeastern Pacific, exceeding those in the northwest Pacific. For the vertical distribution, the tritium is generally reduced greatly with depth, but displays maximum values at subsurface layer (∼50m) in some regions. The concentration reaches a steady state over time, defined as the characteristic concentration, whose spatial distribution and attainment time are detailed. For major fishing grounds in the Pacific Ocean, the Hokkaido area shows the highest tritium levels, followed by Hawaii, California, Zhoushan, the Korean Peninsula, Mexico, the Philippines, Alaska, and Peru in descending order. Critically, simulated tritium concentrations in most North Pacific regions (∼0.01 Bq/m<sup>3</sup>) remain orders of magnitude below natural background levels (∼50 Bq/m<sup>3</sup>). This research elucidates three-dimensional radionuclide dispersion mechanisms in global oceans, providing a quantitative methodology for future marine emergency response and contributing to long-term marine conservation efforts.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"199 ","pages":"Article 102652"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145465785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-11-02DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102648
Abather J.B. Alhallaf , Javier Vilcáez , Ye Liang
This study evaluates how incorporating meteorological variables affects the predictive accuracy of sea-level variability (SLV) models in the northwestern Arabian Gulf, utilizing SARIMAX, LSTM, and CNN&LSTM models. The analysis indicates that the total monthly meteorological contributions, as a proportion of overall tidal influences on SLV, reach their peak in summer, with July and August exhibiting the highest total monthly weights, aligning with previous studies. Air Temperature (AT) is the principal parameter influencing SLV, accounting for a maximum of 28.35% in August, highlighting climate change's persistence on sea level. The models consistently identify Atmospheric Pressure (AP) as a consistent contributor with a minor negative effect; Wind Speed (WS), Wind Direction (WD), and Gust Speed (GS) exhibit mixed effects depending on the month. The LSTM and CNN&LSTM models also indicate that some factors inversely affect sea-level changes. This study highlights the significance of integrating metrological factors into sea-level forecasting models in the northwestern Arabian Gulf to enhance flood prediction. It has potential applications in disaster preparedness and the execution of coastal flooding mitigation strategies.
{"title":"Investigating the impact of meteorological factors on sea-level variability in the northwestern Arabian gulf: A case study using deep learning and advanced statistical models for enhanced forecasting","authors":"Abather J.B. Alhallaf , Javier Vilcáez , Ye Liang","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102648","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102648","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study evaluates how incorporating meteorological variables affects the predictive accuracy of sea-level variability (SLV) models in the northwestern Arabian Gulf, utilizing SARIMAX, LSTM, and CNN&LSTM models. The analysis indicates that the total monthly meteorological contributions, as a proportion of overall tidal influences on SLV, reach their peak in summer, with July and August exhibiting the highest total monthly weights, aligning with previous studies. Air Temperature (AT) is the principal parameter influencing SLV, accounting for a maximum of 28.35% in August, highlighting climate change's persistence on sea level. The models consistently identify Atmospheric Pressure (AP) as a consistent contributor with a minor negative effect; Wind Speed (WS), Wind Direction (WD), and Gust Speed (GS) exhibit mixed effects depending on the month. The LSTM and CNN&LSTM models also indicate that some factors inversely affect sea-level changes. This study highlights the significance of integrating metrological factors into sea-level forecasting models in the northwestern Arabian Gulf to enhance flood prediction. It has potential applications in disaster preparedness and the execution of coastal flooding mitigation strategies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"199 ","pages":"Article 102648"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145466624","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-31DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102650
Ziyi Zhang , Bo An , Zhiwei Zhang , Yuyang Guo , Jinchao Zhang , Zhe Feng , Yongqiang Yu
Submesoscale processes play important roles in vertical heat and mass transport, modulating mesoscale eddies and the energy cycle; thus a parameterization is essential for most ocean models due to submesoscale’s spatial scales (∼100 m–10 km). This study describes the impact of the submesoscale parameterization scheme by Zhang et al. (2023; Zhang23) in a regional eddy-resolving ocean model in the North Pacific. Compared with the numerical experiment without the scheme, the simulated winter mixed-layer depth (MLD) bias is reduced by 70 % in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region and the KE jet shifted southward from 36.5°N to 35.5°N, closer to observations. Surface cold biases at 32°–34°N and subsurface warm biases at 36–40°N are reduced by ∼1 °C and ∼2 °C across four seasons, respectively. The effect of submesoscale vertical buoyancy fluxes (VBF) on winter MLD is debated. While widely shown to promote basin-scale shoaling via restratification, they are also known to cause powerful, localized deepening in regions with strong fronts and air-sea interaction. Focusing on this latter scenario, our study reveals a more detailed mechanism, notably distinguishing between local (direct) and remote (indirect) impacts on circulation in the mixed layer and subsurface. Enhanced submesoscale VBF drives weather-scale MLD deepening and subduction along tilted isopycnals in boreal winter in the most active eddy region, mainly limited to 38°–42°N/140°–150°E, promoting southward subsurface cooling and strengthening ocean memory. This feedback modulates the KE's large-scale circulation by shifting its path southward, reducing downstream heat transport, and promoting stratification and shoaling in the eastern region throughout all seasons. These findings demonstrate the importance of submesoscale parameterization for improving simulations of western boundary current systems and highlight its effects in representing remote and subsurface dynamic processes.
亚中尺度过程在垂直热质输运、调节中尺度涡旋和能量循环中起重要作用;因此,由于亚中尺度的空间尺度(~ 100 m-10 km),对大多数海洋模式来说,参数化是必不可少的。本文描述了Zhang et al. (2023; Zhang23)的亚中尺度参数化方案对北太平洋区域涡旋解析海洋模式的影响。与不采用该方案的数值试验相比,模拟黑潮延伸(KE)地区冬季混合层深度(MLD)偏差减小了70%,KE急流从36.5°N向南移动至35.5°N,与观测值更接近。在32°-34°N的地表冷偏差和36-40°N的地下暖偏差在四个季节中分别减少了~ 1°C和~ 2°C。讨论了亚中尺度垂直浮力通量(VBF)对冬季MLD的影响。虽然它们被广泛证明可以通过再酸化促进盆地尺度的浅滩化,但在锋面强和海气相互作用的地区,它们也会导致强大的局部深化。针对后一种情况,我们的研究揭示了更详细的机制,特别是区分了对混合层和地下环流的局部(直接)和远程(间接)影响。亚中尺度VBF的增强,在最活跃的涡动区(主要局限于38°-42°N/140°-150°E),驱动了北纬冬季天气尺度MLD沿倾斜等平线加深和俯冲,促进了向南的地下冷却,增强了海洋记忆。这种反馈调节了KE的大尺度环流,使其路径南移,减少了下游的热输送,并在整个季节促进了东部地区的分层和浅滩化。这些发现表明了亚中尺度参数化对于改善西部边界流系统模拟的重要性,并突出了其在表征远程和地下动力过程方面的作用。
{"title":"Local effect of a submesoscale parameterization scheme and its remote influences on large-scale circulation in the Northwest Pacific","authors":"Ziyi Zhang , Bo An , Zhiwei Zhang , Yuyang Guo , Jinchao Zhang , Zhe Feng , Yongqiang Yu","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102650","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102650","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Submesoscale processes play important roles in vertical heat and mass transport, modulating mesoscale eddies and the energy cycle; thus a parameterization is essential for most ocean models due to submesoscale’s spatial scales (∼100 m–10 km). This study describes the impact of the submesoscale parameterization scheme by Zhang et al. (2023; Zhang23) in a regional eddy-resolving ocean model in the North Pacific. Compared with the numerical experiment without the scheme, the simulated winter mixed-layer depth (MLD) bias is reduced by 70 % in the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region and the KE jet shifted southward from 36.5°N to 35.5°N, closer to observations. Surface cold biases at 32°–34°N and subsurface warm biases at 36–40°N are reduced by ∼1 °C and ∼2 °C across four seasons, respectively. The effect of submesoscale vertical buoyancy fluxes (VBF) on winter MLD is debated. While widely shown to promote basin-scale shoaling via restratification, they are also known to cause powerful, localized deepening in regions with strong fronts and air-sea interaction. Focusing on this latter scenario, our study reveals a more detailed mechanism, notably distinguishing between local (direct) and remote (indirect) impacts on circulation in the mixed layer and subsurface. Enhanced submesoscale VBF drives weather-scale MLD deepening and subduction along tilted isopycnals in boreal winter in the most active eddy region, mainly limited to 38°–42°N/140°–150°E, promoting southward subsurface cooling and strengthening ocean memory. This feedback modulates the KE's large-scale circulation by shifting its path southward, reducing downstream heat transport, and promoting stratification and shoaling in the eastern region throughout all seasons. These findings demonstrate the importance of submesoscale parameterization for improving simulations of western boundary current systems and highlight its effects in representing remote and subsurface dynamic processes.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"199 ","pages":"Article 102650"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145465782","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-10-31DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102647
Huy Cong Vu, Binh Quang Nguyen
Eddies play a vital role in the transport of heat, salt, and other materials, as well as in shaping the circulation structure of the ocean. Understanding eddies is therefore essential for elucidating the mechanisms that govern the formation, evolution, and variability of ocean currents. This study aims to analyze the characteristics of ocean currents in the East Vietnam Sea (South China Sea–SCS) by combining two approaches: the Euler method and the Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCS) method. This integrated approach provides a comprehensive understanding of current dynamics and eddy formation. Using velocity vector images (Euler method), the study identifies the direction, location, and intensity of major ocean currents in the SCS. Meanwhile, the LCS method is applied to detect and delineate the boundaries and sizes of eddies. The ocean current data were obtained from the global HYCOM model on a daily basis throughout 2023. Our findings indicate that: (i) ocean currents in the SCS exhibit a clear seasonal pattern. In winter, the dominant flow moves from north to south along the Vietnamese coast, while in summer, the flow reverses, moving from south to north, with a disruption near 11 °N close to the Vietnamese coast. The current can extend up to 220 km near China, narrowing to 56 km as it approaches Vietnam. (ii) A table summarizing the characteristics of eddies with diameters greater than 100 km is included. The number of eddies is higher during the summer, but larger eddies tend to occur during the winter. In addition to single eddies, the SCS is also home to double and triple eddies.
{"title":"Surface current detection in regional seas using Lagrangian coherent structures","authors":"Huy Cong Vu, Binh Quang Nguyen","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102647","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102647","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Eddies play a vital role in the transport of heat, salt, and other materials, as well as in shaping the circulation structure of the ocean. Understanding eddies is therefore essential for elucidating the mechanisms that govern the formation, evolution, and variability of ocean currents. This study aims to analyze the characteristics of ocean currents in the East Vietnam Sea (South China Sea–SCS) by combining two approaches: the Euler method and the Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCS) method. This integrated approach provides a comprehensive understanding of current dynamics and eddy formation. Using velocity vector images (Euler method), the study identifies the direction, location, and intensity of major ocean currents in the SCS. Meanwhile, the LCS method is applied to detect and delineate the boundaries and sizes of eddies. The ocean current data were obtained from the global HYCOM model on a daily basis throughout 2023. Our findings indicate that: (i) ocean currents in the SCS exhibit a clear seasonal pattern. In winter, the dominant flow moves from north to south along the Vietnamese coast, while in summer, the flow reverses, moving from south to north, with a disruption near 11 °N close to the Vietnamese coast. The current can extend up to 220 km near China, narrowing to 56 km as it approaches Vietnam. (ii) A table summarizing the characteristics of eddies with diameters greater than 100 km is included. The number of eddies is higher during the summer, but larger eddies tend to occur during the winter. In addition to single eddies, the SCS is also home to double and triple eddies.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"199 ","pages":"Article 102647"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145466623","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}