Pub Date : 2025-12-22DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102675
Óscar A. Caballero-Martínez , Carmen Zarzuelo , Gabriel Navarro , I. Emma Huertas , Antonio Tovar-Sánchez , Eugenio Fraile-Nuez , Marcos Larrad-Revuelto , Manuel Díez-Minguito
Port Foster (Deception Island, Antarctica) is a semi-enclosed flooded caldera, connected to the Southern Ocean through its narrow inlet (Neptune’s Bellows), whereby the water exchange with the Bransfield Strait takes place. This study addresses tidally-induced sea level variations and horizontal currents at intratidal and subtidal time scales in Port Foster, focusing on the inlet. The approach relies on a comprehensive field campaign and simulations performed with a complex computational hydrodynamical model. Tides are synchronous, mesotidal, and mixed, mainly semidiurnal. Phase lags between water levels and horizontal currents are near . Therefore, Port Foster is dynamically short regarding tidal propagation. The constituent dominates water levels and currents, with a weak ebb dominance observed. At a tidal scale, peak currents occur in Neptune’s Bellows (with modelled data close to ) with an east–west direction in tidal ellipses, while inside Port Foster, currents are much weaker (). The numerical model reveals complex semidiurnal circulation in the inlet, including a counter-clockwise eddy forming during flood periods. This pattern produces different rotation directions of the semidiurnal and diurnal tidal ellipses. At a subtidal scale, residual currents attain values up to in the inlet. They are negligible elsewhere. The potential residual bedload transport exhibits a pattern similar to that of the residual current. Residual eddies on either side of Neptune’s Bellows, with opposing rotations, indicate limited water exchange between Port Foster and the Bransfield Strait, resulting in a flushing time of approximately 75 days.
{"title":"Barotropic tides and residual transport in Port Foster (Deception Island, Antarctica)","authors":"Óscar A. Caballero-Martínez , Carmen Zarzuelo , Gabriel Navarro , I. Emma Huertas , Antonio Tovar-Sánchez , Eugenio Fraile-Nuez , Marcos Larrad-Revuelto , Manuel Díez-Minguito","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102675","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102675","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Port Foster (Deception Island, Antarctica) is a semi-enclosed flooded caldera, connected to the Southern Ocean through its narrow inlet (Neptune’s Bellows), whereby the water exchange with the Bransfield Strait takes place. This study addresses tidally-induced sea level variations and horizontal currents at intratidal and subtidal time scales in Port Foster, focusing on the inlet. The approach relies on a comprehensive field campaign and simulations performed with a complex computational hydrodynamical model. Tides are synchronous, mesotidal, and mixed, mainly semidiurnal. Phase lags between water levels and horizontal currents are near <span><math><mrow><mi>π</mi><mo>/</mo><mn>2</mn></mrow></math></span>. Therefore, Port Foster is dynamically short regarding tidal propagation. The <span><math><msub><mrow><mi>M</mi></mrow><mrow><mn>2</mn></mrow></msub></math></span> constituent dominates water levels and currents, with a weak ebb dominance observed. At a tidal scale, peak currents occur in Neptune’s Bellows (with modelled data close to <span><math><mrow><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>90</mn><mspace></mspace><mi>m</mi><mspace></mspace><msup><mrow><mi>s</mi></mrow><mrow><mtext>-</mtext><mn>1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span>) with an east–west direction in tidal ellipses, while inside Port Foster, currents are much weaker (<span><math><mrow><mo>∼</mo><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>05</mn><mspace></mspace><mi>m</mi><mspace></mspace><msup><mrow><mi>s</mi></mrow><mrow><mtext>-</mtext><mn>1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span>). The numerical model reveals complex semidiurnal circulation in the inlet, including a counter-clockwise eddy forming during flood periods. This pattern produces different rotation directions of the semidiurnal and diurnal tidal ellipses. At a subtidal scale, residual currents attain values up to <span><math><mrow><mn>0</mn><mo>.</mo><mn>10</mn><mspace></mspace><mi>m</mi><mspace></mspace><msup><mrow><mi>s</mi></mrow><mrow><mtext>-</mtext><mn>1</mn></mrow></msup></mrow></math></span> in the inlet. They are negligible elsewhere. The potential residual bedload transport exhibits a pattern similar to that of the residual current. Residual eddies on either side of Neptune’s Bellows, with opposing rotations, indicate limited water exchange between Port Foster and the Bransfield Strait, resulting in a flushing time of approximately 75 days.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 102675"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145840659","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-13DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102674
Guangjun Xu , Yucheng Shi , Xueming Zhu , Zhao Jing , Shuyi Zhou , Jiexin Xu , Huabing Xu , Guancheng Wang , Dongyang Fu , Changming Dong
Accurate, simultaneous prediction of three-dimensional (3D) ocean temperature, salinity, and current fields is vital for understanding ocean dynamics and informing marine applications. This study introduces a Fourier Neural Operator (FNO)-based model specifically designed for this 3D multi-variable task, leveraging Fourier transforms to efficiently capture complex multi-scale spatio-temporal dependencies within the ocean state. Evaluated on multi-year data from the South China Sea, the FNO model demonstrates strong predictive skill. Compared against the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) operational forecast product, our model achieved significant average reductions in Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by 43.07 % and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) by 46.18 % (averaged across all four variables and the full 10-day forecast horizon). The FNO particularly excels in short-term predictions (1–3 days), outperforming conventional deep learning benchmarks (such as U-Net) in accuracy for key variables. Spectral analysis reveals this outperformance is linked to FNO's superior ability to represent the energy of multi-scale oceanic features, indicating a more faithful capture of their structures, while also offering substantial computational efficiency compared to traditional numerical simulations. While forecast accuracy decreases over longer periods, this work highlights the considerable potential of FNOs as a scalable and effective data-driven approach for advancing 3D oceanographic forecasting.
{"title":"Prediction of three-dimensional ocean temperature, salinity and current fields based on fourier neural operators","authors":"Guangjun Xu , Yucheng Shi , Xueming Zhu , Zhao Jing , Shuyi Zhou , Jiexin Xu , Huabing Xu , Guancheng Wang , Dongyang Fu , Changming Dong","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102674","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102674","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Accurate, simultaneous prediction of three-dimensional (3D) ocean temperature, salinity, and current fields is vital for understanding ocean dynamics and informing marine applications. This study introduces a Fourier Neural Operator (FNO)-based model specifically designed for this 3D multi-variable task, leveraging Fourier transforms to efficiently capture complex multi-scale spatio-temporal dependencies within the ocean state. Evaluated on multi-year data from the South China Sea, the FNO model demonstrates strong predictive skill. Compared against the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) operational forecast product, our model achieved significant average reductions in Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) by 43.07 % and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) by 46.18 % (averaged across all four variables and the full 10-day forecast horizon). The FNO particularly excels in short-term predictions (1–3 days), outperforming conventional deep learning benchmarks (such as U-Net) in accuracy for key variables. Spectral analysis reveals this outperformance is linked to FNO's superior ability to represent the energy of multi-scale oceanic features, indicating a more faithful capture of their structures, while also offering substantial computational efficiency compared to traditional numerical simulations. While forecast accuracy decreases over longer periods, this work highlights the considerable potential of FNOs as a scalable and effective data-driven approach for advancing 3D oceanographic forecasting.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 102674"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145798078","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-13DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102669
Rodrigo Mogollón , François Colas , Vincent Echevin , Jorge Tam , Dante Espinoza-Morriberón
This study explores three decades (1993–2022) of interannual variability in primary production (PP) using a coupled physical–biogeochemical model. A long-term positive trend in the vertically-integrated PP was found in both the central and northern domains, exceeding 6 mol C m−2 yr−1 per decade, highlighting an increasing contribution of these regions to overall productivity. Over the study period, the region produced a cumulative 8.6 billion metric tons of carbon, underscoring its substantial role as a carbon sink despite its relatively small spatial extent. Interannual climatic events strongly modulated PP. Negative PP anomalies during El Niño events and positive PP anomalies during La Niña phases were primarily constrained within the first 10 m depths. The sensitivity analysis demonstrated that biological drivers, particularly chlorophyll concentration and phytoplankton biomass, dominated PP variability, accounting for over 95% of the explained variance. Physical factors, such as light availability, temperature, played secondary but significant roles during extreme events, modulating PP alongside biological processes. Overall, the findings reveal a resilient yet highly dynamic system, with long-term increases in productivity counterbalanced by episodic disruptions tied to interannual climatic variability. These results emphasize the importance of biological drivers in sustaining productivity and provide valuable insights into the factors shaping the variability and trends in this highly productive marine ecosystem.
本研究利用物理-生物地球化学耦合模型探讨了初级生产力（PP）的30年（1993-2022）年际变化。在中部和北部地区，垂直整合PP呈长期正趋势，超过6 mol C m−2 yr−1 / 10年，突出表明这些地区对整体生产力的贡献越来越大。在研究期间，该地区累计产生了86亿吨碳，尽管其空间范围相对较小，但仍强调了其作为碳汇的重要作用。年际气候事件强烈调节了PP。El Niño期的负PP异常和La Niña期的正PP异常主要局限于前10 m深度。敏感性分析表明，生物驱动因素，特别是叶绿素浓度和浮游植物生物量，主导了PP变异，占解释方差的95%以上。物理因素，如光可用性、温度，在极端事件中起次要但重要的作用，调节PP和生物过程。总体而言，研究结果揭示了一个有弹性但高度动态的系统，生产力的长期增长被与年际气候变化相关的间歇性中断所抵消。这些结果强调了生物驱动因素在维持生产力方面的重要性，并为形成这一高产海洋生态系统的变异性和趋势的因素提供了有价值的见解。
{"title":"Three decades of interannual variability in modeled primary production in the Peruvian Upwelling Region (1993–2022)","authors":"Rodrigo Mogollón , François Colas , Vincent Echevin , Jorge Tam , Dante Espinoza-Morriberón","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102669","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102669","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study explores three decades (1993–2022) of interannual variability in primary production (PP) using a coupled physical–biogeochemical model. A long-term positive trend in the vertically-integrated PP was found in both the central and northern domains, exceeding 6 mol C m<sup>−2</sup> yr<sup>−1</sup> per decade, highlighting an increasing contribution of these regions to overall productivity. Over the study period, the region produced a cumulative 8.6 billion metric tons of carbon, underscoring its substantial role as a carbon sink despite its relatively small spatial extent. Interannual climatic events strongly modulated PP. Negative PP anomalies during El Niño events and positive PP anomalies during La Niña phases were primarily constrained within the first 10 m depths. The sensitivity analysis demonstrated that biological drivers, particularly chlorophyll concentration and phytoplankton biomass, dominated PP variability, accounting for over 95% of the explained variance. Physical factors, such as light availability, temperature, played secondary but significant roles during extreme events, modulating PP alongside biological processes. Overall, the findings reveal a resilient yet highly dynamic system, with long-term increases in productivity counterbalanced by episodic disruptions tied to interannual climatic variability. These results emphasize the importance of biological drivers in sustaining productivity and provide valuable insights into the factors shaping the variability and trends in this highly productive marine ecosystem.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 102669"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145798076","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-12DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102672
Laura Lavaud , Xavier Bertin , Kévin Martins
Besides its well-known capacity to dissipate wave energy, salt marsh vegetation can also affect wave setup, although this mechanism has been much less studied and quantified so far. This study reports on a field experiment conducted under moderate energy conditions across a French Atlantic salt marsh. The data analysis is complemented with numerical simulations performed with the 3D fully-coupled wave–current modelling system SCHISM. While the model could already resolve vegetation-induced drag on mean currents and turbulence, it was here extended to account for vegetation intrawave drag effects and the wave force associated with vegetation-induced dissipation. Using published lab data, we first verify the model’s capacity to reproduce wave dissipation by vegetation and its effect on mean water levels, namely a reduction in wave setup, which is controlled by wave–current-vegetation interactions including intrawave processes. In the field, the model also demonstrates good predictive skills in simulating wave parameters across vegetation and suggests that vegetation can decrease the wave setup. However, this last process was too modest to be measured with pressure transducers, calling for future field experiments under storm conditions. This capacity of vegetation to reduce nearshore mean water levels should be thoroughly considered when evaluating the potential of salt marshes as nature-based coastal protection. This study places the SCHISM model as a state-of-the-art, efficient tool to simulate 3D multi-scale wave–current processes over vegetation ecosystems. Our results finally highlight that vegetation and depth-induced breaking induce a frequency-dependent dissipation, whose representation in phase-averaged models is presently limited and will require future research.
{"title":"Modelling wave dissipation and mean water level over salt marshes","authors":"Laura Lavaud , Xavier Bertin , Kévin Martins","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102672","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102672","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Besides its well-known capacity to dissipate wave energy, salt marsh vegetation can also affect wave setup, although this mechanism has been much less studied and quantified so far. This study reports on a field experiment conducted under moderate energy conditions across a French Atlantic salt marsh. The data analysis is complemented with numerical simulations performed with the 3D fully-coupled wave–current modelling system SCHISM. While the model could already resolve vegetation-induced drag on mean currents and turbulence, it was here extended to account for vegetation intrawave drag effects and the wave force associated with vegetation-induced dissipation. Using published lab data, we first verify the model’s capacity to reproduce wave dissipation by vegetation and its effect on mean water levels, namely a reduction in wave setup, which is controlled by wave–current-vegetation interactions including intrawave processes. In the field, the model also demonstrates good predictive skills in simulating wave parameters across vegetation and suggests that vegetation can decrease the wave setup. However, this last process was too modest to be measured with pressure transducers, calling for future field experiments under storm conditions. This capacity of vegetation to reduce nearshore mean water levels should be thoroughly considered when evaluating the potential of salt marshes as nature-based coastal protection. This study places the SCHISM model as a state-of-the-art, efficient tool to simulate 3D multi-scale wave–current processes over vegetation ecosystems. Our results finally highlight that vegetation and depth-induced breaking induce a frequency-dependent dissipation, whose representation in phase-averaged models is presently limited and will require future research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 102672"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145798075","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-12DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102673
Francisco Pereira , Francisco López-Castejón , Félix Francés , Andrés Alcolea , Joaquín Jiménez-Martínez , João Miguel Dias , Javier Gilabert
Reproduction of hydrodynamic and hydrologic processes in complex coastal lagoons requires the development and calibration of linked numerical model implementations, that can show accuracy even in extreme weather scenarios. To achieve that, robust datasets for a wide variety of parameters are needed to validate the model. This study aimed to develop and validate a hydrodynamic model linked to a groundwater and a watershed model, for the microtidal Mar Menor coastal lagoon located in the southeastern Spain. Special concern was given to flash flood events, which, although infrequent, are proved to trigger mass mortality of species inside the lagoon. To achieve that, a ROMS numerical implementation was developed and linked to atmospheric (HARMONIE-AROME), groundwater (SUTRA), and watershed (TETIS) models. The model results were compared with a robust dataset with hydrodynamic, salinity, and water temperature data. Special attention was given to the September 2019 Cut-off Low (CoL) flash flood event. The model demonstrated high accuracy in reproducing the lagoon’s dynamics under normal conditions, including the currents in the narrow inlets connecting the lagoon with the Mediterranean Sea. After the CoL event, an extraordinary hydrological scenario developed — characterized by strong vertical stratification that persisted for over a month — explained by the lack of sufficient shear instability to overcome buoyancy forces induced by density gradients, despite the occurrence of a two-layer opposite direction flow. Runoff associated with the CoL event also led to a nearly 20 % reduction in the lagoon’s Water Renewal Time.
{"title":"Linking ROMS with watershed models for simulating hydrodynamics and thermohaline dynamics in a coastal lagoon affected by extreme weather events","authors":"Francisco Pereira , Francisco López-Castejón , Félix Francés , Andrés Alcolea , Joaquín Jiménez-Martínez , João Miguel Dias , Javier Gilabert","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102673","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102673","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Reproduction of hydrodynamic and hydrologic processes in complex coastal lagoons requires the development and calibration of linked numerical model implementations, that can show accuracy even in extreme weather scenarios. To achieve that, robust datasets for a wide variety of parameters are needed to validate the model. This study aimed to develop and validate a hydrodynamic model linked to a groundwater and a watershed model, for the microtidal Mar Menor coastal lagoon located in the southeastern Spain. Special concern was given to flash flood events, which, although infrequent, are proved to trigger mass mortality of species inside the lagoon. To achieve that, a ROMS numerical implementation was developed and linked to atmospheric (HARMONIE-AROME), groundwater (SUTRA), and watershed (TETIS) models. The model results were compared with a robust dataset with hydrodynamic, salinity, and water temperature data. Special attention was given to the September 2019 Cut-off Low (CoL) flash flood event. The model demonstrated high accuracy in reproducing the lagoon’s dynamics under normal conditions, including the currents in the narrow inlets connecting the lagoon with the Mediterranean Sea. After the CoL event, an extraordinary hydrological scenario developed — characterized by strong vertical stratification that persisted for over a month — explained by the lack of sufficient shear instability to overcome buoyancy forces induced by density gradients, despite the occurrence of a two-layer opposite direction flow. Runoff associated with the CoL event also led to a nearly 20 % reduction in the lagoon’s Water Renewal Time.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 102673"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145798077","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-12DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102671
Mohammad Jamous, Reza Marsooli
Extreme wave runup and overwash are among the most common natural hazards that threaten coastal regions by causing severe erosion and flooding. Sea level rise is expected to exacerbate these hazards, as deeper water allows for more energetic waves to reach shorelines. Physics-based modeling is a robust approach for quantifying these extreme wave hazards, yet it remains a challenging task due to the presence of various coupled physical processes, including rapid morphological changes and their effects on hydrodynamics and waves. In this work, we propose a modeling framework to simulate erosion, runup, and overwash of sandy beach-dune systems during extreme wave events while accounting for the effects of morphological changes. The framework consists of a hierarchy of hydrodynamic (XBeach-Non-Hydrostatic), morphodynamic (XBeach-Surfbeat), and spectral wave and ocean circulation models (ADCIRC+SWAN) that simulate total water levels, frequency-direction wave spectrum, morphological changes of beach-dune systems, and runup and overwash of individual waves. The framework is applied to Hurricane Sandy to simulate wave hazards at beach-dune systems on the Barrier Islands of New Jersey in the U.S. To demonstrate the importance of morphological changes on wave hazards, we perform simulations under various scenarios of sea level rise. We find that excluding morphological changes results in wave overwash volumes being overestimated at dunes that are not severely eroded during the storm, while underestimated at dunes that are severely eroded. Besides the effects of morphological changes, the results also show a substantial shift in storm impact regimes under future sea level rise scenarios.
{"title":"Impact of storm-induced morphological changes on extreme wave runup and overtopping of sandy beaches and dunes","authors":"Mohammad Jamous, Reza Marsooli","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102671","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102671","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Extreme wave runup and overwash are among the most common natural hazards that threaten coastal regions by causing severe erosion and flooding. Sea level rise is expected to exacerbate these hazards, as deeper water allows for more energetic waves to reach shorelines. Physics-based modeling is a robust approach for quantifying these extreme wave hazards, yet it remains a challenging task due to the presence of various coupled physical processes, including rapid morphological changes and their effects on hydrodynamics and waves. In this work, we propose a modeling framework to simulate erosion, runup, and overwash of sandy beach-dune systems during extreme wave events while accounting for the effects of morphological changes. The framework consists of a hierarchy of hydrodynamic (XBeach-Non-Hydrostatic), morphodynamic (XBeach-Surfbeat), and spectral wave and ocean circulation models (ADCIRC+SWAN) that simulate total water levels, frequency-direction wave spectrum, morphological changes of beach-dune systems, and runup and overwash of individual waves. The framework is applied to Hurricane Sandy to simulate wave hazards at beach-dune systems on the Barrier Islands of New Jersey in the U.S. To demonstrate the importance of morphological changes on wave hazards, we perform simulations under various scenarios of sea level rise. We find that excluding morphological changes results in wave overwash volumes being overestimated at dunes that are not severely eroded during the storm, while underestimated at dunes that are severely eroded. Besides the effects of morphological changes, the results also show a substantial shift in storm impact regimes under future sea level rise scenarios.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 102671"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145798117","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study investigates the spatio-temporal variability and forcing mechanisms of the South Pacific western subtropical mode water (SPWSTMW) using the RG-Argo observations and the eddy-resolving GLORYS12 reanalysis from 2004 to 2023. The SPWSTMW exhibits pronounced zonal asymmetries in both its variability and forcing processes. To better understand these west-east asymmetries, we divide the SPWSTMW into the West (150°E–160°E) and East (160°E–170°W) types. On a seasonal timescale, the West type forms approximately one month earlier than the East type, primarily due to enhanced heat convergence from the mean flow and associated eddies of the East Australian Current. These oceanic processes effectively offset winter surface heat loss, accelerating upper-ocean restratification and subduction. On an interannual timescale, the East type volume correlates strongly with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through direct atmospheric forcing. However, the West type volume shows no significant correlation with ENSO, resulting from the complex interaction of surface heat flux, mean flow-induced heat convergence, and eddy-induced heat convergence. These findings underscore the critical role of regional ocean dynamics in modulating SPWSTMW variations.
{"title":"West-East asymmetry in the South Pacific Western subtropical mode water","authors":"Xueying Wang, Yiyong Luo, Yingying Wang, Ruiyi Chen","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102670","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102670","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates the spatio-temporal variability and forcing mechanisms of the South Pacific western subtropical mode water (SPWSTMW) using the RG-Argo observations and the eddy-resolving GLORYS12 reanalysis from 2004 to 2023. The SPWSTMW exhibits pronounced zonal asymmetries in both its variability and forcing processes. To better understand these west-east asymmetries, we divide the SPWSTMW into the West (150°E–160°E) and East (160°E–170°W) types. On a seasonal timescale, the West type forms approximately one month earlier than the East type, primarily due to enhanced heat convergence from the mean flow and associated eddies of the East Australian Current. These oceanic processes effectively offset winter surface heat loss, accelerating upper-ocean restratification and subduction. On an interannual timescale, the East type volume correlates strongly with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) through direct atmospheric forcing. However, the West type volume shows no significant correlation with ENSO, resulting from the complex interaction of surface heat flux, mean flow-induced heat convergence, and eddy-induced heat convergence. These findings underscore the critical role of regional ocean dynamics in modulating SPWSTMW variations.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 102670"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145798079","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-03DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102660
Tasneem Ahmed , Andrea Cucco , Giovanni Quattrocchi , Leo Creedon , Iulia Anton , Michele Bendoni , Stefano Taddei , Carlo Brandini , Salem S Gharbia
This study evaluates the performance of the SHYFEM (System of HydrodYnamic Finite Element Modules) ocean model in simulating storm surges within Donegal Bay (northwest Ireland) for climate projection applications. A high-resolution Basin Scale Model (BSM) configuration of SHYFEM, spanning the North Atlantic is employed in barotropic mode accounting exclusively for atmospheric forcing with no tidal contribution included. To evaluate its accuracy, the BSM is compared against a Limited Area Model (LAM) configuration of SHYFEM implemented at the same study site.
The LAM includes tidal constituents through the downscaling of sea surface height (SSH) from a calibrated deep-water ocean model provided by the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). Comparison is performed to quantify the impact of non-linear tide-surge interaction on residual water levels computation.
On average the LAM achieves 3 cm greater accuracy than the BSM in reproducing the time series of residual water levels measured by four tide gauges within the bay. Nevertheless, although both models tend to underestimate the extreme values, the BSM better captures the climatological statistics of storm surge events, closely matching the observed return levels associated with 5, 10, 25, and 50 year return periods.
Further improvements in return level estimates and residual water level error metrics are obtained through iterative calibration of main model parameters, validating the BSM’s effectiveness in simulating storm surges despite the absence of tide-surge interaction.
A Chi-squared significance test applied to tide gauge observations confirms that tide-surge interaction is statistically non-significant within Donegal Bay for surge thresholds at the 99th, 99.95th, and 99.99th percentiles. These findings support the use of BSM, driven exclusively with atmospheric fields (without including tides), for reliable simulation of storm surges and their climatological statistics in this region.
{"title":"Assessing basin scale modelling for projecting storm surge extremes under climate change scenarios in northwest Ireland","authors":"Tasneem Ahmed , Andrea Cucco , Giovanni Quattrocchi , Leo Creedon , Iulia Anton , Michele Bendoni , Stefano Taddei , Carlo Brandini , Salem S Gharbia","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102660","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102660","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study evaluates the performance of the SHYFEM (System of HydrodYnamic Finite Element Modules) ocean model in simulating storm surges within Donegal Bay (northwest Ireland) for climate projection applications. A high-resolution Basin Scale Model (BSM) configuration of SHYFEM, spanning the North Atlantic is employed in barotropic mode accounting exclusively for atmospheric forcing with no tidal contribution included. To evaluate its accuracy, the BSM is compared against a Limited Area Model (LAM) configuration of SHYFEM implemented at the same study site.</div><div>The LAM includes tidal constituents through the downscaling of sea surface height (SSH) from a calibrated deep-water ocean model provided by the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). Comparison is performed to quantify the impact of non-linear tide-surge interaction on residual water levels computation.</div><div>On average the LAM achieves 3 cm greater accuracy than the BSM in reproducing the time series of residual water levels measured by four tide gauges within the bay. Nevertheless, although both models tend to underestimate the extreme values, the BSM better captures the climatological statistics of storm surge events, closely matching the observed return levels associated with 5, 10, 25, and 50 year return periods.</div><div>Further improvements in return level estimates and residual water level error metrics are obtained through iterative calibration of main model parameters, validating the BSM’s effectiveness in simulating storm surges despite the absence of tide-surge interaction.</div><div>A Chi-squared significance test applied to tide gauge observations confirms that tide-surge interaction is statistically non-significant within Donegal Bay for surge thresholds at the 99th, 99.95th, and 99.99th percentiles. These findings support the use of BSM, driven exclusively with atmospheric fields (without including tides), for reliable simulation of storm surges and their climatological statistics in this region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 102660"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145749045","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-12-02DOI: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102659
Montri Maleewong , Roger Grimshaw
In our recent papers Maleewong and Grimshaw (2024b, 2025), we used the Korteweg–de Vries (KdV) equation and its two-dimensional extension, the Kadomtsev–Petviashvili (KP) equation to describe the evolution of wind-driven water wave packets in shallow water. Both equations were modified to include the effect of wind forcing, modelled using the Miles critical level instability theory. In this paper that is extended to a Benney–Luke (BL) equation, similarly modified for wind forcing. The motivation is that the BL equation is isotropic in the horizontal space variables, unlike the KP model, and noting that the KdV model is one-dimensional. The modified BL equation is studied using wave modulation theory as in our previous work on the forced KdV and KP equations, and with comprehensive numerical simulations. Despite the very different spatial structure the results show that under the right initial conditions and parameter settings, solitary wave trains again emerge.
{"title":"Evolution of wind-generated shallow water waves in a Benney–Luke equation","authors":"Montri Maleewong , Roger Grimshaw","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102659","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102659","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In our recent papers Maleewong and Grimshaw (2024b, 2025), we used the Korteweg–de Vries (KdV) equation and its two-dimensional extension, the Kadomtsev–Petviashvili (KP) equation to describe the evolution of wind-driven water wave packets in shallow water. Both equations were modified to include the effect of wind forcing, modelled using the Miles critical level instability theory. In this paper that is extended to a Benney–Luke (BL) equation, similarly modified for wind forcing. The motivation is that the BL equation is isotropic in the horizontal space variables, unlike the KP model, and noting that the KdV model is one-dimensional. The modified BL equation is studied using wave modulation theory as in our previous work on the forced KdV and KP equations, and with comprehensive numerical simulations. Despite the very different spatial structure the results show that under the right initial conditions and parameter settings, solitary wave trains again emerge.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 102659"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145658436","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In the context of global climate warming, the changes in Arctic sea ice have garnered significant attention. Traditional models face challenges in predicting sea ice concentration (SIC) due to the complexity and interdependence of meteorological factors, which make it difficult to quantify their impacts on sea ice variability. Temporal dynamics of sea ice concentration changes are underutilized, while the limitations of single-model predictions worsen the issue. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a novel dual-branch Arctic sea ice concentration forecasting method, called DB-SICNet. This method integrates OSI-SAF sea ice data and ERA5 meteorological data, employing a multi-scale feature fusion module to extract key features from the meteorological factors. A dynamic temporal weighting mechanism captures periodic variation patterns by assigning weights to data points over time, and the model combines ConvLSTM and UNet in a dual-branch integrate to improve prediction accuracy. Comprehensive experimental evaluations demonstrate that, compared to popular models such as CMIP6 and IceNet, DB-SICNet provides more accurate forecasts of Arctic sea ice coverage for the upcoming month. The study also employs DeepLIFT attribution analysis to identify the critical role of sea surface temperature in the prediction of SIC. The findings of this research can offer robust support for navigation planning and sea ice-related applications in the Arctic region.
{"title":"DB-SICNet: A dual-branch model for predicting Arctic sea ice concentration","authors":"Ling Tan , Jinlong Xu , Wei Zhang , Wenjia Chen , Jingming Xia","doi":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102658","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ocemod.2025.102658","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In the context of global climate warming, the changes in Arctic sea ice have garnered significant attention. Traditional models face challenges in predicting sea ice concentration (SIC) due to the complexity and interdependence of meteorological factors, which make it difficult to quantify their impacts on sea ice variability. Temporal dynamics of sea ice concentration changes are underutilized, while the limitations of single-model predictions worsen the issue. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a novel dual-branch Arctic sea ice concentration forecasting method, called DB-SICNet. This method integrates OSI-SAF sea ice data and ERA5 meteorological data, employing a multi-scale feature fusion module to extract key features from the meteorological factors. A dynamic temporal weighting mechanism captures periodic variation patterns by assigning weights to data points over time, and the model combines ConvLSTM and UNet in a dual-branch integrate to improve prediction accuracy. Comprehensive experimental evaluations demonstrate that, compared to popular models such as CMIP6 and IceNet, DB-SICNet provides more accurate forecasts of Arctic sea ice coverage for the upcoming month. The study also employs DeepLIFT attribution analysis to identify the critical role of sea surface temperature in the prediction of SIC. The findings of this research can offer robust support for navigation planning and sea ice-related applications in the Arctic region.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":19457,"journal":{"name":"Ocean Modelling","volume":"200 ","pages":"Article 102658"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2025-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145749044","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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