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Challenges and Opportunities in Interdisciplinary Research and Real-World Data for Treatment Sequences in Health Technology Assessments. 健康技术评估中治疗序列的跨学科研究和真实世界数据的挑战与机遇。
IF 4.4 3区 医学 Q1 Medicine Pub Date : 2024-05-01 Epub Date: 2024-04-01 DOI: 10.1007/s40273-024-01363-1
Jen-Yu Amy Chang, James B Chilcott, Nicholas R Latimer

With an ever-increasing number of treatment options, the assessment of treatment sequences has become crucial in health technology assessment (HTA). This review systematically explores the multifaceted challenges inherent in evaluating sequences, delving into their interplay and nuances that go beyond economic model structures. We synthesised a 'roadmap' of literature from key methodological studies, highlighting the evolution of recent advances and emerging research themes. These insights were compared against HTA guidelines to identify potential avenues for future research. Our findings reveal a spectrum of challenges in sequence evaluation, encompassing selecting appropriate decision-analytic modelling approaches and comparators, deriving appropriate clinical effectiveness evidence in the face of data scarcity, scrutinising effectiveness assumptions and statistical adjustments, considering treatment displacement, and optimising model computations. Integrating methodologies from diverse disciplines-statistics, epidemiology, causal inference, operational research and computer science-has demonstrated promise in addressing these challenges. An updated review of application studies is warranted to provide detailed insights into the extent and manner in which these methodologies have been implemented. Data scarcity on the effectiveness of treatment sequences emerged as a dominant concern, especially because treatment sequences are rarely compared in clinical trials. Real-world data (RWD) provide an alternative means for capturing evidence on effectiveness and future research should prioritise harnessing causal inference methods, particularly Target Trial Emulation, to evaluate treatment sequence effectiveness using RWD. This approach is also adaptable for analysing trials harbouring sequencing information and adjusting indirect comparisons when collating evidence from heterogeneous sources. Such investigative efforts could lend support to reviews of HTA recommendations and contribute to synthesising external control arms involving treatment sequences.

随着治疗方案的日益增多,治疗序列的评估已成为卫生技术评估(HTA)的关键。本综述系统地探讨了序列评估中固有的多方面挑战,深入探讨了它们之间的相互作用以及超越经济模型结构的细微差别。我们综合了主要方法学研究的文献 "路线图",强调了最新进展的演变和新出现的研究主题。我们将这些见解与 HTA 指南进行了比较,以确定未来研究的潜在途径。我们的研究结果揭示了序列评价所面临的一系列挑战,包括选择适当的决策分析建模方法和比较对象、在数据稀缺的情况下获得适当的临床有效性证据、仔细审查有效性假设和统计调整、考虑治疗转移以及优化模型计算。整合不同学科的方法--统计学、流行病学、因果推断、运筹学和计算机科学--已显示出应对这些挑战的前景。有必要对应用研究进行最新审查,以便详细了解这些方法的实施范围和方式。治疗序列有效性方面的数据稀缺是一个主要问题,尤其是因为临床试验中很少对治疗序列进行比较。真实世界数据(RWD)为获取疗效证据提供了另一种方法,未来的研究应优先利用因果推理方法,特别是目标试验模拟法,使用 RWD 评估治疗序列的疗效。这种方法还可用于分析含有序列信息的试验,并在整理来自不同来源的证据时调整间接比较。此类研究工作可为 HTA 建议的审查提供支持,并有助于综合涉及治疗序列的外部对照臂。
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引用次数: 0
Budget Impact of Introducing Fixed-Duration Mosunetuzumab for the Treatment of Relapsed or Refractory Follicular Lymphoma After Two or More Lines of Systemic Therapy in the USA. 美国引入固定疗程的莫苏尼珠单抗治疗两线或两线以上系统疗法后复发或难治滤泡淋巴瘤的预算影响。
IF 4.4 3区 医学 Q1 Medicine Pub Date : 2024-05-01 Epub Date: 2024-02-01 DOI: 10.1007/s40273-024-01358-y
Shih-Wen Lin, Sheila Shapouri, Hélène Parisé, Eric Bercaw, Mei Wu, Eunice Kim, Matthew Matasar

Objective: This study aimed to assess the budget impact of introducing fixed-duration mosunetuzumab as a treatment option for adult patients with relapsed or refractory follicular lymphoma after at least two prior systemic therapies and to estimate the total cumulative costs per patient in the USA.

Methods: A 3-year budget impact model was developed for a hypothetical 1-million-member cohort enrolled in a mixed commercial/Medicare health plan. Comparators were: axicabtagene ciloleucel, tisagenlecleucel, tazemetostat, rituximab plus lenalidomide, copanlisib, and older therapies (rituximab or obinutuzumab ± chemotherapy). Costs per patient comprised treatment-associated costs including the drug, its administration, adverse events, and routine care. Dosing and safety data were ascertained from respective package inserts and clinical trial data. Drug costs (March 2023) were estimated based on the average wholesale acquisition cost reported in AnalySource®, and all other costs were based on published sources and inflated to 2022 US dollars. Market shares were obtained from Genentech internal projections and expert opinion. Budget impact outcomes were presented on a per-member per-month basis.

Results: Compared with a scenario without mosunetuzumab, its introduction over 3 years resulted in a budget increase of $69,812 (1% increase) and an average per-member per-month budget impact of $0.0019. Among the newer therapies, mosunetuzumab had the second-lowest cumulative per patient cost (mosunetuzumab = $202,039; axicabtagene ciloleucel = $505,845; tisagenlecleucel = $476,293; rituximab plus lenalidomide = $263,520; tazemetostat = $250,665; copanlisib = $127,293) and drug costs, and its introduction only increased total drug costs by 0.1%. By year 3, the cumulative difference in the per patient cost with mosunetuzumab was -$303,805 versus axicabtagene ciloleucel, -$274,254 versus tisagenlecleucel, -$61,481 versus rituximab plus lenalidomide, -$48,625 versus tazemetostat, and $74,747 versus copanlisib. Older therapies were less costly with 3-year cumulative costs that ranged from $36,512 to $147,885.

Conclusions: Over 3 years, the estimated cumulative per patient cost of mosunetuzumab is lower than most available newer therapies, resulting in a small increase in the budget after its formulary adoption for the treatment of relapsed or refractory follicular lymphoma.

研究目的本研究旨在评估将固定疗程的莫苏尼珠单抗作为治疗复发或难治滤泡性淋巴瘤成年患者的一种治疗方案对美国预算的影响,并估算每位患者的累计总成本:方法:针对参加商业/医疗保险混合医疗计划的 100 万成员队列建立了一个为期 3 年的预算影响模型。比较对象包括:阿西卡巴替尼西乐葆、替沙根西乐葆、他泽美托司他、利妥昔单抗加来那度胺、科帕尼利和旧疗法(利妥昔单抗或奥比妥珠单抗±化疗)。每位患者的成本包括治疗相关成本,包括药物、用药、不良事件和日常护理。剂量和安全性数据来自各自的包装说明书和临床试验数据。药物成本(2023 年 3 月)根据 AnalySource® 中报告的平均批发采购成本估算,所有其他成本均根据已公布的资料来源估算,并膨胀至 2022 年美元。市场份额来自基因泰克公司的内部预测和专家意见。预算影响结果以每个月每个成员为单位:结果:与不使用莫苏尼珠单抗的情况相比,在3年内使用莫苏尼珠单抗会导致预算增加69,812美元(增加1%),平均每人每月的预算影响为0.0019美元。在较新的疗法中,莫苏尼珠单抗的每位患者累计成本第二低(莫苏尼珠单抗=202,039美元;阿西卡巴他癸西洛ucel=505,845美元;替沙格列ucel=476,293美元;在药物成本方面,利妥昔单抗加来那度胺=263,520 美元;他泽美托司他=250,665 美元;copanlisib=127,293 美元。1%.到第3年时,莫苏尼单抗与阿昔单抗西洛昔洛相比,每位患者的累计成本差异为-303,805美元;与替沙格列奈相比,为-274,254美元;与利妥昔单抗加来那度胺相比,为-61,481美元;与他泽美托相比,为-48,625美元;与copanlisib相比,为74,747美元。较老的疗法成本较低,3年累计成本从36,512美元到147,885美元不等:3年内,mosunetuzumab每名患者的估计累计成本低于大多数现有的较新疗法,因此在被纳入治疗复发或难治滤泡性淋巴瘤的处方集后,预算会略有增加。
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引用次数: 0
Cost-Effectiveness of Lovotibeglogene Autotemcel (Lovo-Cel) Gene Therapy for Patients with Sickle Cell Disease and Recurrent Vaso-Occlusive Events in the United States 美国镰状细胞病和复发性血管闭塞事件患者的 Lovotibeglogene Autotemcel(Lovo-Cel)基因疗法的成本效益
IF 4.4 3区 医学 Q1 Medicine Pub Date : 2024-04-29 DOI: 10.1007/s40273-024-01385-9
William L. Herring, Meghan E. Gallagher, Nirmish Shah, KC Morse, Deirdre Mladsi, Olivia M. Dong, Anjulika Chawla, Jennifer W. Leiding, Lixin Zhang, Clark Paramore, Biree Andemariam

Background and Objective

Gene therapies for sickle cell disease (SCD) may offer meaningful benefits for patients and society. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of lovotibeglogene autotemcel (lovo-cel), a one-time gene therapy administered via autologous hematopoietic stem cell transplantation, compared with common care for patients in the United States (US) with SCD aged ≥ 12 years with ≥ 4 vaso-occlusive events (VOEs) in the past 24 months.

Methods

We developed a patient-level simulation model accounting for lovo-cel and SCD-related events, complications, and mortality over a lifetime time horizon. The pivotal phase 1/2 HGB-206 clinical trial (NCT02140554) served as the basis for lovo-cel efficacy and safety. Cost, quality-of-life, and other clinical data were sourced from HGB-206 data and the literature. Analyses were conducted from US societal and third-party payer perspectives. Uncertainty was assessed through probabilistic sensitivity analysis and extensive scenario analyses.

Results

Patients treated with lovo-cel were predicted to survive 23.84 years longer on average (standard deviation [SD], 12.80) versus common care (life expectancy, 62.24 versus 38.40 years), with associated discounted patient quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gains of 10.20 (SD, 4.10) and direct costs avoided of $1,329,201 (SD, $1,346,446) per patient. Predicted societal benefits included discounted caregiver QALY losses avoided of 1.19 (SD, 1.38) and indirect costs avoided of $540,416 (SD, $262,353) per patient. Including lovo-cel costs ($3,282,009 [SD, $29,690] per patient) resulted in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of $191,519 and $124,051 per QALY gained from third-party payer and societal perspectives, respectively. In scenario analyses, the predicted cost-effectiveness of lovo-cel also was sensitive to baseline age and VOE frequency and to the proportion of patients achieving and maintaining complete resolution of VOEs.

Conclusions

Our analysis of lovo-cel gene therapy compared with common care for patients in the US with SCD with recurrent VOEs estimated meaningful improvements in survival, quality of life, and other clinical outcomes accompanied by increased overall costs for the health care system and for broader society. The predicted economic value of lovo-cel gene therapy was influenced by uncertainty in long-term clinical effects and by positive spillover effects on patient productivity and caregiver burden.

背景与目的镰状细胞病(SCD)的基因疗法可为患者和社会带来重大益处。本研究评估了lovotibeglogene autotemcel(lovo-cel)的成本效益。lovo-cel是一种通过自体造血干细胞移植一次性给药的基因疗法,与美国(US)过去24个月内≥12岁、≥4次血管闭塞事件(VOEs)的SCD患者的普通护理相比,lovo-cel的成本效益更高。关键的 1/2 期 HGB-206 临床试验(NCT02140554)是lovo-cel 疗效和安全性的基础。成本、生活质量和其他临床数据均来自 HGB-206 数据和文献。从美国社会和第三方支付机构的角度进行了分析。通过概率敏感性分析和广泛的情景分析对不确定性进行了评估。结果预计接受lovo-cel治疗的患者平均存活时间为23.84年(标准差[SD]为12.80年),而接受普通治疗的患者平均存活时间为62.24年,而接受普通治疗的患者平均存活时间为38.40年,相关的患者质量调整生命年(QALY)折现收益为10.20(SD为4.10),每位患者避免的直接费用为1,329,201美元(SD为1,346,446美元)。预测的社会效益包括每位患者避免的护理人员 QALY 损失折现为 1.19(标度为 1.38)美元,避免的间接成本为 540,416 美元(标度为 262,353 美元)。从第三方支付方和社会角度来看,将lovo-cel成本(每名患者3,282,009美元[标度为29,690美元])计算在内,每获得一个QALY的增量成本效益比分别为191,519美元和124,051美元。在情景分析中,lovo-cel 的预测成本效益对基线年龄和 VOE 频率以及实现和维持 VOEs 完全缓解的患者比例也很敏感。结论我们对美国复发性 VOEs SCD 患者的lovo-cel 基因疗法与普通护理进行了分析,结果表明,lovo-cel 基因疗法在生存期、生活质量和其他临床结果方面带来了有意义的改善,同时也增加了医疗系统和社会的总体成本。lovo-cel基因疗法的预测经济价值受到长期临床效果的不确定性以及对患者生产力和护理人员负担的积极溢出效应的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Advances in Addressing Patient Heterogeneity in Economic Evaluation: A Review of the Methods Literature 经济评估中解决患者异质性问题的进展:方法文献综述
IF 4.4 3区 医学 Q1 Medicine Pub Date : 2024-04-27 DOI: 10.1007/s40273-024-01377-9
Gemma E. Shields, Paul Clarkson, Ash Bullement, Warren Stevens, Mark Wilberforce, Tracey Farragher, Arpana Verma, Linda M. Davies

Cost-effectiveness analyses commonly use population or sample averages, which can mask key differences across subgroups and may lead to suboptimal resource allocation. Despite there being several new methods developed over the last decade, there is no recent summary of what methods are available to researchers. This review sought to identify advances in methods for addressing patient heterogeneity in economic evaluations and to provide an overview of these methods. A literature search was conducted using the Econlit, Embase and MEDLINE databases to identify studies published after 2011 (date of a previous review on this topic). Eligible studies needed to have an explicit methodological focus, related to how patient heterogeneity can be accounted for within a full economic evaluation. Sixteen studies were included in the review. Methodologies were varied and included regression techniques, model design and value of information analysis. Recent publications have applied methodologies more commonly used in other fields, such as machine learning and causal forests. Commonly noted challenges associated with considering patient heterogeneity included data availability (e.g., sample size), statistical issues (e.g., risk of false positives) and practical factors (e.g., computation time). A range of methods are available to address patient heterogeneity in economic evaluation, with relevant methods differing according to research question, scope of the economic evaluation and data availability. Researchers need to be aware of the challenges associated with addressing patient heterogeneity (e.g., data availability) to ensure findings are meaningful and robust. Future research is needed to assess whether and how methods are being applied in practice.

成本效益分析通常使用人口或样本平均值,这会掩盖不同亚群之间的关键差异,并可能导致资源分配的次优化。尽管在过去十年中开发出了一些新方法,但目前还没有关于研究人员可用方法的最新总结。本综述旨在确定在经济评价中处理患者异质性的方法的进展,并对这些方法进行概述。我们使用 Econlit、Embase 和 MEDLINE 数据库进行了文献检索,以确定 2011 年(上一篇相关综述的日期)之后发表的研究。符合条件的研究必须在方法学上有明确的侧重点,即如何在全面经济评价中考虑患者的异质性。16 项研究被纳入综述。研究方法多种多样,包括回归技术、模型设计和信息价值分析。近期发表的文章采用了其他领域更常用的方法,如机器学习和因果森林。普遍注意到的与考虑患者异质性相关的挑战包括数据可用性(如样本大小)、统计问题(如假阳性风险)和实际因素(如计算时间)。有一系列方法可用于解决经济评估中的患者异质性问题,相关方法因研究问题、经济评估范围和数据可用性而异。研究人员需要意识到解决患者异质性问题所面临的挑战(如数据可用性),以确保研究结果有意义且稳健。未来需要开展研究,以评估各种方法是否以及如何在实践中应用。
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引用次数: 0
Issues, Challenges and Opportunities for Economic Evaluations of Orphan Drugs in Rare Diseases: An Umbrella Review 罕见病 "孤儿 "药物经济评估的问题、挑战和机遇:综述
IF 4.4 3区 医学 Q1 Medicine Pub Date : 2024-04-14 DOI: 10.1007/s40273-024-01370-2
Tobias Sydendal Grand, Shijie Ren, James Hall, Daniel Oudin Åström, Stephane Regnier, Praveen Thokala

Background and Objectives

There are significant challenges when obtaining clinical and economic evidence for health technology assessments of rare diseases. Many of them have been highlighted in previous systematic reviews but they have not been summarised in a comprehensive manner. For all stakeholders working with rare diseases, it is important to be aware and understand these issues. The objective of this review is to identify the main challenges for the economic evaluation of orphan drugs in rare diseases.

Methods

An umbrella review of systematic reviews of economic studies concerned with orphan and ultra-orphan drugs was conducted. Studies that were not systematic reviews, or on advanced therapeutic medicinal products, personalised medicines or other interventions that were not considered orphan drugs were excluded. The database searches included publications from 2010 to 2023, and were conducted in MEDLINE, EMBASE and the Cochrane library using filters for systematic reviews, and economic evaluations and models. These filters were combined with search terms for rare diseases and orphan drugs. A hand search supplemented the literature searches. The findings were reported by a compliant Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) flow diagram.

Results

Two hundred and eighty-two records were identified from the literature searches, of which 64 were duplicates, whereas five reviews were identified from the hand search. A total of 36 reviews were included after screening against inclusion/exclusion criteria, 35 from literature searches and one from hand searching. Of those studies 1, 27 and 8 were low, moderate and high quality, respectively. The reviews highlight the scarcity of evidence for health economic parameters, for example, clinical effectiveness, costs, quality of life and the natural history of disease. Health economic evaluations such as cost-effectiveness and budget-impact analyses were scarce, and generally low-to-moderate quality. The causes were limited health economic parameters, together with publications bias, especially for cost-effectiveness analyses.

Conclusions

The results highlighted issues around a considerable paucity of evidence for economic evaluations and few cost-effectiveness analyses, supporting the notion that a paucity of evidence makes economic evaluations of rare diseases more challenging compared with more prevalent diseases. Furthermore, we provide recommendations for more sustainable approaches in economic evaluations of rare diseases.

背景和目标在为罕见病健康技术评估获取临床和经济证据时面临着巨大的挑战。以前的系统综述中已强调了其中的许多问题,但尚未对其进行全面总结。对于所有从事罕见病工作的利益相关者来说,认识和了解这些问题非常重要。本综述旨在确定罕见病孤儿药经济评估所面临的主要挑战。排除了非系统综述的研究,或关于先进治疗药物产品、个性化药物或其他不被视为孤儿药的干预措施的研究。数据库检索包括 2010 年至 2023 年期间的出版物,在 MEDLINE、EMBASE 和 Cochrane 图书馆中使用系统综述、经济评估和模型筛选器进行检索。这些筛选条件与罕见病和孤儿药的搜索条件相结合。人工检索对文献检索进行了补充。结果通过文献检索发现了 282 条记录,其中 64 条为重复记录,而通过人工检索发现了 5 篇综述。根据纳入/排除标准进行筛选后,共纳入 36 篇综述,其中 35 篇来自文献检索,1 篇来自人工检索。其中 1、27 和 8 篇研究的质量分别为低、中和高。这些综述强调了健康经济参数证据的匮乏,例如临床效果、成本、生活质量和疾病的自然病史。成本效益和预算影响分析等卫生经济评价很少,质量一般为中低水平。结论 研究结果凸显了经济评估证据相当匮乏和成本效益分析很少的问题,支持了证据匮乏使得罕见病的经济评估比流行病更具挑战性的观点。此外,我们还为罕见病经济评估中更可持续的方法提出了建议。
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引用次数: 0
A Blueprint for Multi-use Disease Modeling in Health Economics: Results from Two Expert-Panel Consultations 卫生经济学中的多用途疾病模型蓝图:两次专家小组咨询的结果
IF 4.4 3区 医学 Q1 Medicine Pub Date : 2024-04-13 DOI: 10.1007/s40273-024-01376-w
Junfeng Wang, Xavier Pouwels, Bram Ramaekers, Geert Frederix, Chris van Lieshout, Rudolf Hoogenveen, Xinyu Li, G. Ardine de Wit, Manuela Joore, Hendrik Koffijberg, Anoukh van Giessen, Saskia Knies, Talitha Feenstra

Background

The current use of health economic decision models in HTA is mostly confined to single use cases, which may be inefficient and result in little consistency over different treatment comparisons, and consequently inconsistent health policy decisions, for the same disorder. Multi-use disease models (MUDMs) (other terms: generic models, whole disease models, disease models) may offer a solution. However, much is uncertain about their definition and application. The current research aimed to develop a blueprint for the application of MUDMs.

Methods

We elicited expert opinion using a two-round modified Delphi process. The panel consisted of experts and stakeholders in health economic modelling from various professional backgrounds. The first questionnaire concerned definition, terminology, potential applications, issues and recommendations for MUDMs and was based on an exploratory scoping review. In the second round, the panel members were asked to reconsider their input, based on feedback regarding first-round results, and to score issues and recommendations for priority. Finally, adding input from external advisors and policy makers in a structured way, an overview of issues and challenges was developed during two team consensus meetings.

Results

In total, 54 respondents contributed to the panel results. The term ‘multi-use disease models’ was proposed and agreed upon, and a definition was provided. The panel prioritized 10 potential applications (with comparing alternative policies and supporting resource allocation decisions as the top 2), while 20 issues (with model transparency and stakeholders’ roles as the top 2) were identified as challenges. Opinions on potential features concerning operationalization of multi-use models were given, with 11 of these subsequently receiving high priority scores (regular updates and revalidation after updates were the top 2).

Conclusions

MUDMs would improve on current decision support regarding cost-effectiveness information. Given feasibility challenges, this would be most relevant for diseases with multiple treatments, large burden of disease and requiring more complex models. The current overview offers policy makers a starting point to organize the development, use, and maintenance of MUDMs and to support choices concerning which diseases and policy decisions they will be helpful for.

背景目前在 HTA 中使用的卫生经济决策模型大多局限于单一用途病例,这可能效率低下,并导致不同治疗方法比较的一致性不高,从而导致针对相同疾病的卫生政策决定不一致。多用途疾病模型(MUDMs)(其他术语:通用模型、整体疾病模型、疾病模型)可能提供了一种解决方案。然而,关于其定义和应用还有很多不确定因素。目前的研究旨在为多用途疾病模型的应用绘制蓝图。方法我们采用两轮改良德尔菲程序征求专家意见。专家小组由来自不同专业背景的卫生经济建模专家和利益相关者组成。第一轮问卷涉及 MUDMs 的定义、术语、潜在应用、问题和建议,以探索性范围审查为基础。在第二轮调查中,小组成员被要求根据对第一轮调查结果的反馈,重新考虑他们的意见,并对问题和建议的优先级进行评分。最后,在两次团队共识会议上,以结构化的方式添加了外部顾问和决策者的意见,并对问题和挑战进行了概述。提出并商定了 "多用途疾病模型 "一词,并给出了定义。小组优先考虑了 10 项潜在应用(其中比较替代政策和支持资源分配决策是前两项),同时确定了 20 个问题(其中模型透明度和利益相关者的角色是前两项)作为挑战。对有关多用途模型可操作性的潜在特征提出了意见,其中 11 项随后获得了高优先级评分(定期更新和更新后重新验证是前两项)。考虑到可行性方面的挑战,这对于有多种治疗方法、疾病负担大且需要更复杂模型的疾病最有意义。目前的概述为政策制定者提供了一个起点,以组织开发、使用和维护 MUDMs,并支持选择它们将有助于哪些疾病和政策决策。
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引用次数: 0
Barriers and Facilitators of Using R for Decision Analytic Modeling in Health Technology Assessment: Focus Group Results 在卫生技术评估中使用 R 进行决策分析建模的障碍和促进因素:焦点小组讨论结果
IF 4.4 3区 医学 Q1 Medicine Pub Date : 2024-04-12 DOI: 10.1007/s40273-024-01374-y
Yanara Marks, Jeffrey S. Hoch, Anna Heath, Petros Pechlivanoglou

Background and Objective

Decision models for health technology assessment (HTA) are largely submitted to HTA agencies using commercial software, which has known limitations. The use of the open-source programming language R has been suggested because of its efficiency, transparency, reproducibility, and ability to consider complex analyses. However, its use in HTA remains limited. This qualitative study aimed to explore the main reasons for this slow uptake of R in HTA and identify tangible facilitators.

Methods

We undertook two semi-structured focus group discussions with 24 key stakeholders from government agencies, consultancy, pharmaceutical companies, and academia. Two 1.5-hour discussions reflected on barriers identified in a previous study and highlighted additional barriers. Discussions were recorded and semi-transcribed, and data were organized and summarized into key themes.

Results

Human resources constraints were identified as a key barrier, including a lack of training, prioritization and collaboration, and resistance to change. Another key barrier was the lack of acceptance, or clear guidance, around submissions in R by HTA agencies. Participants also highlighted a lack of communication around accepted packages and decision model structures, and between HTA agencies on standard decision modeling structures.

Conclusions

There is a need for standardization, which can facilitate decision model sharing, coding homogeneity, and improved country adaptations. The creation of training materials and tailored workshops was identified as a key short-term facilitator. Increased communication and engagement of stakeholders could also facilitate the use of R by identifying needs and opportunities, encouraging HTA agencies to address structural barriers, and increasing incentives to use R.

背景与目标卫生技术评估 (HTA) 的决策模型大多使用商业软件提交给 HTA 机构,而商业软件具有已知的局限性。有人建议使用开源编程语言 R,因为它高效、透明、可重现,并能考虑复杂的分析。然而,它在 HTA 中的使用仍然有限。本定性研究旨在探讨 R 语言在 HTA 中应用缓慢的主要原因,并找出切实的促进因素。方法我们与来自政府机构、咨询公司、制药公司和学术界的 24 位主要利益相关者进行了两次半结构化焦点小组讨论。两次讨论历时 1.5 小时,对之前研究中发现的障碍进行了反思,并强调了其他障碍。对讨论进行了记录和半誊写,并将数据整理和归纳为关键主题。结果 人力资源限制被认为是一个关键障碍,包括缺乏培训、优先排序和协作,以及对变革的抵制。另一个主要障碍是 HTA 机构对 R 中的提交缺乏认可或明确的指导。与会者还强调,在接受的软件包和决策模型结构方面缺乏沟通,HTA 机构之间也缺乏关于标准决策模型结构的沟通。编制培训材料和举办有针对性的研讨会被认为是一个关键的短期促进因素。加强利益相关者的沟通和参与也可以通过确定需求和机会、鼓励 HTA 机构解决结构性障碍以及提高使用 R 的积极性来促进 R 的使用。
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引用次数: 0
Value of Information for Clinical Trial Design: The Importance of Considering All Relevant Comparators 临床试验设计的信息价值:考虑所有相关参照物的重要性
IF 4.4 3区 医学 Q1 Medicine Pub Date : 2024-04-07 DOI: 10.1007/s40273-024-01372-0
Anna Heath, Gianluca Baio, Ioanna Manolopoulou, Nicky J. Welton

Value of Information (VOI) analyses calculate the economic value that could be generated by obtaining further information to reduce uncertainty in a health economic decision model. VOI has been suggested as a tool for research prioritisation and trial design as it can highlight economically valuable avenues for future research. Recent methodological advances have made it increasingly feasible to use VOI in practice for research; however, there are critical differences between the VOI approach and the standard methods used to design research studies such as clinical trials. We aimed to highlight key differences between the research design approach based on VOI and standard clinical trial design methods, in particular the importance of considering the full decision context. We present two hypothetical examples to demonstrate that VOI methods are only accurate when (1) all feasible comparators are included in the decision model when designing research, and (2) all comparators are retained in the decision model once the data have been collected and a final treatment recommendation is made. Omitting comparators from either the design or analysis phase of research when using VOI methods can lead to incorrect trial designs and/or treatment recommendations. Overall, we conclude that incorrectly specifying the health economic model by ignoring potential comparators can lead to misleading VOI results and potentially waste scarce research resources.

信息价值(VOI)分析计算的是通过获取更多信息以减少健康经济决策模型中的不确定性而产生的经济价值。VOI 被建议作为研究优先次序和试验设计的工具,因为它可以突出未来研究的经济价值途径。近期方法学上的进步使得在研究实践中使用 VOI 变得越来越可行;然而,VOI 方法与用于设计研究(如临床试验)的标准方法之间存在重大差异。我们的目的是强调基于自愿自主创新的研究设计方法与标准临床试验设计方法之间的主要区别,特别是考虑整个决策背景的重要性。我们举了两个假设的例子来说明,只有在以下情况下,VOI 方法才是准确的:(1) 在设计研究时,将所有可行的比较对象都纳入决策模型;(2) 在收集数据并提出最终治疗建议后,将所有比较对象都保留在决策模型中。使用 VOI 方法时,如果在研究的设计或分析阶段遗漏比较对象,可能会导致不正确的试验设计和/或治疗建议。总之,我们得出的结论是,忽略潜在的参照物而错误地指定健康经济模型会导致误导性的 VOI 结果,并可能浪费稀缺的研究资源。
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引用次数: 0
Is Risk-Stratifying Patients with Colorectal Cancer Using a Deep Learning-Based Prognostic Biomarker Cost-Effective? 利用基于深度学习的预后生物标记对结直肠癌患者进行风险分层是否具有成本效益?
IF 4.4 3区 医学 Q1 Medicine Pub Date : 2024-04-07 DOI: 10.1007/s40273-024-01371-1
Anna Kenseth, Dominika Kantorova, Mikyung Kelly Seo, Eline Aas, John Cairns, David Kerr, Hanne Askautrud, Jørn Evert Jacobsen

Objectives

Accurate risk stratification of patients with stage II and III colorectal cancer (CRC) prior to treatment selection enables limited health resources to be efficiently allocated to patients who are likely to benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy. We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of a recently developed deep learning-based prognostic method, Histotyping, from the perspective of the Norwegian healthcare system.

Methods

Two partitioned survival models were developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of Histotyping for two treatment cohorts: patients with CRC stage II and III. For each of the two cohorts, Histotyping was used for risk stratification to assign adjuvant chemotherapy and was compared with the standard of care (SOC) (adjuvant chemotherapy to all patients). Health outcomes measured in the model were quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and life years (LYs) gained. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the impact of uncertainty. Scenario analyses were performed to assess the impact of the parameters with the greatest uncertainty.

Results

Risk-stratifying patients with CRC stage II and III using Histotyping was dominant (less costly and more effective) compared to SOC. In patients with CRC stage II, the net monetary benefit of Histotyping was 270,934 Norwegian kroners (NOK) (year of valuation is 2021), and the net health benefit of Histotyping was 0.99. In stage III, the net monetary benefit of Histotyping was 195,419 NOK, and the net health benefit of Histotyping was 0.71.

Conclusions

 Risk-stratifying patients with CRC using Histotyping prior to the administration of adjuvant chemotherapy is likely to be a cost-effective strategy in Norway.

目的在选择治疗方法之前对 II 期和 III 期结直肠癌(CRC)患者进行准确的风险分层,可以将有限的医疗资源有效地分配给可能从辅助化疗中获益的患者。我们的目的是从挪威医疗保健系统的角度出发,调查最近开发的基于深度学习的预后方法--Histotyping的成本效益。方法开发了两个分区生存模型,以评估Histotyping在两个治疗队列(CRC II期和III期患者)中的成本效益。对于这两个组群中的每一个组群,Histotyping均用于风险分层,以分配辅助化疗,并与标准治疗(SOC)(对所有患者进行辅助化疗)进行比较。模型中衡量的健康结果是质量调整生命年(QALYs)和获得的生命年(LYs)。为确定不确定性的影响,进行了确定性和概率敏感性分析。结果与 SOC 相比,使用组织分型法对 II 期和 III 期 CRC 患者进行风险分层具有优势(成本更低、效果更好)。在CRC II期患者中,组织分型的净经济效益为270,934挪威克朗(估值年份为2021年),组织分型的净健康效益为0.99。在III期患者中,组织分型的净经济效益为195,419挪威克朗,组织分型的净健康效益为0.71。
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引用次数: 0
Childhood Transitions Between Weight Status Categories: Evidence from the UK Millennium Cohort Study 体重状况类别之间的童年过渡:来自英国千年队列研究的证据
IF 4.4 3区 医学 Q1 Medicine Pub Date : 2024-04-03 DOI: 10.1007/s40273-024-01361-3

Abstract

Background

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of interventions targeting childhood excess weight requires estimates of the hazards of transitioning between weight status categories. Current estimates are based on studies characterized by insufficient sample sizes, a lack of national representativeness, and untested assumptions.

Objectives

We sought to (1) estimate transition probabilities and hazard ratios for transitioning between childhood weight status categories, (2) test the validity of the underlying assumption in the literature that transitions between childhood bodyweight categories are time-homogeneous, (3) account for complex sampling procedures when deriving nationally representative transition estimates, and (4) explore the impact of child, maternal, and sociodemographic characteristics.

Methods

We applied a multistate transition modeling approach accounting for complex survey design to UK Millennium Cohort Study (MCS) data to predict transition probabilities and hazard ratios for weight status movements for children aged 3–17. Surveys were conducted at ages 3 (wave 2 in 2004), 5 (wave 3 in 2006), 7 (wave 4 in 2008), 11 (wave 5 in 2012), 14 (wave 6 in 2015), and 17 (wave 7 in 2018) years. We derived datasets that included repeated body mass index measurements across waves after excluding multiple births and children with missing or implausible bodyweight records. To account for the stratified cluster sample design of the MCS, we incorporated survey weights and jackknife replicates of survey weights. Using a validation dataset from the MCS, we tested the validity of our models. Finally, we estimated the relationships between state transitions and child, maternal, and sociodemographic factors.

Results

The datasets for our primary analysis consisted of 10,399 children for waves 2–3, 10,729 for waves 3–4, 9685 for waves 4–5, 8593 for waves 5–6, and 7085 for waves 6–7. All datasets consisted of roughly equal splits of boys and girls. Under the assumption of time-heterogeneous transition rates (our base-case model), younger children (ages 3–5 and 5–7 years) had significantly higher annual transition probabilities of moving from healthy weight to overweight (0.033, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.026–0.041, and 0.027, 95% CI 0.021–0.033, respectively) compared to older children (0.015, 95% CI 0.012–0.018, at ages 7–11; 0.018, 95% CI 0.013–0.023, at ages 11–14; and 0.018, 95% CI 0.013–0.025 at ages 14–17 years). However, the resolution of unhealthy weight was more strongly age-dependent than transitions from healthy weight to non-healthy weight states. Transition hazards differed by child, maternal, and sociodemographic factors.

Conclusions

Our models generated estimates of bodyweight status transitions in a representative UK childhood population. Compared to our scenario models (i.e., t

摘要 背景 评估针对儿童超重的干预措施的成本效益,需要对体重状况类别之间转变的危害进行估算。目前的估算基于样本量不足、缺乏全国代表性和未经测试的假设等特点的研究。 目标 我们试图:(1)估算儿童体重状况类别之间的过渡概率和危害比;(2)检验文献中关于儿童体重类别之间的过渡是时间均匀的这一基本假设的有效性;(3)在得出具有全国代表性的过渡估算值时考虑复杂的抽样程序;(4)探讨儿童、母亲和社会人口特征的影响。 方法 我们在英国千年队列研究(MCS)数据中采用了多州过渡建模方法,考虑了复杂的调查设计,以预测 3-17 岁儿童体重状况变化的过渡概率和危险比。调查分别在 3 岁(2004 年第 2 次调查)、5 岁(2006 年第 3 次调查)、7 岁(2008 年第 4 次调查)、11 岁(2012 年第 5 次调查)、14 岁(2015 年第 6 次调查)和 17 岁(2018 年第 7 次调查)进行。在剔除多胎和体重记录缺失或不可信的儿童后,我们得出了包括各波重复体重指数测量的数据集。为了考虑到人口普查的分层分组抽样设计,我们纳入了调查权重和调查权重的千分法复本。我们使用来自监控监查的验证数据集检验了模型的有效性。最后,我们估算了状态转换与儿童、母亲和社会人口因素之间的关系。 结果 我们主要分析的数据集包括第 2-3 波的 10399 名儿童、第 3-4 波的 10729 名儿童、第 4-5 波的 9685 名儿童、第 5-6 波的 8593 名儿童和第 6-7 波的 7085 名儿童。所有数据集的男孩和女孩比例大致相等。根据时间异质性转变率假设(我们的基础模型),年龄较小的儿童(3-5 岁和 5-7 岁)从健康体重转变为超重的年转变概率明显较高(0.033,95% 置信区间 [CI] 分别为 0.026-0.041 和 0.027,95% CI 为 0.021-0.033),而年龄较大的儿童(7-11 岁时为 0.015,95% CI 为 0.012-0.018;11-14 岁时为 0.018,95% CI 为 0.013-0.023;14-17 岁时为 0.018,95% CI 为 0.013-0.025)。然而,与从健康体重到非健康体重的转变相比,不健康体重的消除与年龄的关系更为密切。不同的儿童、母亲和社会人口因素对过渡危险性的影响也不同。 结论 我们的模型得出了英国代表性儿童人口体重状态转变的估计值。与我们的情景模式(即时间均匀过渡率)相比,我们的基础情景模式最符合观察到的数据,表明儿童时期体重类别之间的过渡是非时间均匀模式。不同年龄段和不同亚人群之间的过渡危险性差异很大,这表明对儿童体重管理干预措施进行特定亚人群的成本效益分析将优化决策。
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引用次数: 0
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