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Estimation of the Parameters of the Modified Weibull Distribution with Bathtub-shaped Failure Rate Function 带有浴缸形失效率函数的修正威布尔分布参数估计
IF 1.5 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-12-06 DOI: 10.18187/pjsor.v19i4.4185
Adam Abdelrahman Hussein Adam, Hakan SavaÅŸ Sazak
In this study, we propose two estimators called the 3-step MML and the combined estimators of the parameters of the modified Weibull distribution which is used in reliability models with bathtub-shaped failure rate function. The simulations show the superiority of both estimators over the graphical estimators. Particularly, the combined estimators are the better of the two. Two real-life data applications also show the superiority of the proposed estimators compared to the graphical estimators.
在本研究中,我们提出了两种估计量,称为三步MML和改进威布尔分布参数的组合估计量,用于具有浴缸形故障率函数的可靠性模型。仿真结果表明,这两种估计方法都优于图形估计方法。特别是,组合估计器是两者中更好的。两个实际数据应用也显示了与图形估计器相比,所提出的估计器的优越性。
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引用次数: 0
The Marshall–Olkin Pareto Type-I Distribution: Properties, Inference under Complete and Censored Samples with Application to Breast Cancer Data 马歇尔-奥尔金帕累托 I 型分布:特性、完整样本和剔除样本下的推论以及在乳腺癌数据中的应用
IF 1.5 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-12-05 DOI: 10.18187/pjsor.v19i4.4317
Maha A. Aldahlan, Abdelhamid M. Rabie, Mostafa Abdelhamid, Abdul Hadi N. Ahmed, A. Afify
In this paper, we introduce the Marshall–Olkin Pareto type-I (MOPTI) distribution. Structural properties of the MOPTI distribution including the quantile function, mean residual life, and a new theorem for strength-stress measure are introduced. Five methods of estimation for the MOPTI parameters based on complete samples are presented. Furthermore, we explore the estimation of the MOPTI parameters under type-I and type-II censoring. Two Monte Carlo simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of the estimation methods under complete and censored samples. A real-life data set is used to validate the proposed methods.
本文引入Marshall-Olkin Pareto type-I (MOPTI)分布。介绍了MOPTI分布的结构特性,包括分位数函数、平均剩余寿命和一个新的强度-应力测量定理。给出了五种基于完全样本的MOPTI参数估计方法。此外,我们还探讨了在i型和ii型审查下MOPTI参数的估计。通过蒙特卡罗模拟研究,对两种估计方法在完全样本和截尾样本下的性能进行了评价。一个真实的数据集被用来验证所提出的方法。
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引用次数: 0
A modified weighting system for combined forecasting methods based on the correlation coefficients of the individual forecasting models 基于单个预测模型相关系数的组合预测方法的改进加权系统
IF 1.5 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-09-03 DOI: 10.18187/pjsor.v19i3.4247
Chantha Wongoutong
Herein, a modified weighting for combined forecasting methods is established. These weights are used to adjust the correlation coefficient between the actual and predicted values from five individual forecasting models based on their correlation coefficient values and ranking. Time-series datasets with three patterns (stationary, trend, or both trend and seasonal) were analyzed by using the five individual forecasting models and three combined forecasting methods: simple-average, Bates-Granger, and the proposed approach. The MAPE and RMSE results indicate that the proposed method outperformed the others, especially when the time-series pattern was stationary and improved the forecasting accuracy of the worst and best individual forecasting models by 35–37% and 7–10%, respectively. Moreover, the proposed method showed improvements in MAPE and RMSE of around 18–20% and 9–11% compared to the simple-average and Bates-Granger methods, respectively. In addition, the combined forecasting methods outperformed the individual forecasting models when analyzing non-stationary data. Remarkably, the performances of the proposed and Bates-Granger methods were almost the same, with improvements in MAPE and RMSE in the range of 1–2% on average. Therefore, the proposed method for creating weights based on the correlation coefficients of the individual forecasting models greatly improves combined forecasting methods.
在此基础上,建立了组合预测方法的修正权重。这些权重用于根据五个预测模型的相关系数值和排名来调整实际值与预测值之间的相关系数。采用5种独立预测模型和3种组合预测方法(简单平均、贝茨-格兰杰和本文提出的方法)对具有3种模式(平稳、趋势或趋势和季节性)的时间序列数据集进行了分析。MAPE和RMSE结果表明,该方法在时间序列模式平稳的情况下优于其他方法,将最差和最佳个体预测模型的预测精度分别提高了35-37%和7-10%。此外,与简单平均方法和Bates-Granger方法相比,该方法的MAPE和RMSE分别提高了18-20%和9-11%左右。此外,在分析非平稳数据时,组合预测方法优于单个预测模型。值得注意的是,所提出的方法和Bates-Granger方法的性能几乎相同,MAPE和RMSE的平均改进幅度在1-2%之间。因此,本文提出的基于单个预测模型的相关系数创建权重的方法大大改进了组合预测方法。
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引用次数: 0
The Construction of Unemployment Rate Model Using SAR, Quantile Regression, and SARQR Model 利用SAR、分位数回归和SARQR模型构建失业率模型
IF 1.5 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-09-03 DOI: 10.18187/pjsor.v19i3.4241
F. Yanuar, Tasya Abrari, I. Hg
The Open Unemployment Level (OUL) is the percentage of the unemployed to the total labor force. One of the provinces with the highest OUL score in Indonesia is West Java Province. If an object of observation is affected by spatial effects, namely spatial dependence and spatial diversity, then the regression model used is the Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) model. Quantile regression minimizes absolute weighted residuals that are not symmetrical. It is perfect for use on data distribution that is not normally distributed, dense at the ends of the data distribution, or there are outliers. The Spatial Autoregressive Quantile Regression (SARQR) is a model that combines spatial autoregressive models with quantile regression. This research used the data regarding OUR in West Java in 2020 from the Central Bureau of Statistics. This study compares the estimation results based on SAR and SARQR models to obtain an acceptable model. In this study, it was found that the SARQR model is better than SAR at dealing with the problems of dependency and diversity in spatial data modeling and is not easily affected by the presence of outlier data.
公开失业水平(OUL)是失业人口占总劳动力的百分比。印尼OUL得分最高的省份之一是西爪哇省。如果观测对象受空间效应(即空间依赖性和空间多样性)的影响,则采用空间自回归(spatial Autoregressive, SAR)模型。分位数回归使不对称的绝对加权残差最小化。它非常适合用于非正态分布的数据分布,数据分布的末端密集或有异常值的数据分布。空间自回归分位数回归(SARQR)是空间自回归模型与分位数回归相结合的模型。本研究使用了中央统计局关于西爪哇2020年OUR的数据。本研究比较了基于SAR和SARQR模型的估计结果,以获得一个可接受的模型。本研究发现,SARQR模型在处理空间数据建模中的依赖性和多样性问题上优于SAR模型,且不容易受到离群数据存在的影响。
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引用次数: 0
A Class of Methods Using Interval Arithmetic Operations for Solving Multi–Objective Interval Transportation Problems 一类用区间算术运算求解多目标区间运输问题的方法
IF 1.5 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-09-03 DOI: 10.18187/pjsor.v19i3.3983
Ramesh Ganesan, Mathavan N
The objective of this article is studying on cost and time minimization of interval transportation problem (ITP) by using Best Candidate Method (BCM), Improved ASM method (IASM), ASM method, Zero Suffix Method (ZSM) and Zero Point Method (ZPM) with new interval arithmetic operations. We have obtained a better optimum result campared with existing methods available in the literature. The problems considered in this article are solved by the above listed methods without converting them into classical transportation problems. A comparative results are also given.
本文的目的是利用最佳候选方法(BCM)、改进ASM方法(IASM)、ASM方法、零后缀方法(ZSM)和零点方法(ZPM)和新的区间算术运算,研究区间运输问题(ITP)的成本和时间最小化问题。与文献中已有的方法相比,我们得到了更好的优化结果。本文所考虑的问题是用上述方法来解决的,而不是把它们转化为经典的运输问题。并给出了比较结果。
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引用次数: 0
A New Heavy-Tailed Exponential Distribution: Inference, Regression Model and Applications 一种新的重尾指数分布:推理、回归模型及其应用
IF 1.5 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-09-03 DOI: 10.18187/pjsor.v19i3.4230
A. Afify, R. R. Pescim, G. Cordeiro, H. A. Mahran
A new weighted exponentiated-exponential distribution is proposed to model financial data. It has heavy-tailed behavior which is suitable for data with right tails. Some actuarial measures for the new model are determined, and simulations are reported. Its parameters are estimated using nine approaches including a Bayesian method. A new Log-WEx-Exponential regression model is defined for right censored data. The importance of the new models is proved by applications to financial data.
提出了一种新的加权指数-指数分布来对金融数据进行建模。它具有重尾行为,适用于具有右尾的数据。确定了新模型的一些精算措施,并进行了仿真。使用包括贝叶斯方法在内的九种方法估计其参数。对右截尾数据定义了一种新的Log-WEx-Exponential回归模型。通过对财务数据的应用,证明了新模型的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Mixed Poisson Transmuted New Weighted Exponential Distribution with Applications on Skewed and Dispersed Count Data 混合泊松变换新加权指数分布及其在偏斜和分散计数数据上的应用
IF 1.5 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-09-03 DOI: 10.18187/pjsor.v19i3.4113
A. Adetunji, Shamsul Rijal Muhammad Sabri
In this study, a new three-parameter mixed Poisson Cubic Rank Transmuted New Weighted Exponential Distribution is proposed. The new discrete distribution is obtained by mixing the Poisson distribution with a newly obtained Cubic Rank Transmuted New Weighted Exponential Distribution. Various shapes and mathematical properties of both mixing distribution and the new count distribution are examined. Special cases of the new proposition are also identified. The distribution along with its special cases and other count distributions are assumed for skewed and dispersed count observations. The maximum likelihood estimation is used to provide estimates for the parameters of all examined distributions. Results show that the new proposition along with some of its special cases provide good fit for all the examined data.
本文提出了一种新的三参数混合泊松三次秩变静音新加权指数分布。新的离散分布是通过将泊松分布与新获得的三次秩变静音新加权指数分布混合来获得的。研究了混合分布和新计数分布的各种形状和数学性质。还确定了新命题的特殊情况。对于偏斜和分散计数观测,假设分布及其特殊情况和其他计数分布。最大似然估计用于提供对所有检查分布的参数的估计。结果表明,新命题及其一些特例对所有检验数据都具有很好的拟合性。
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引用次数: 0
A Novel Version of the Exponentiated Weibull Distribution: Copulas, Mathematical Properties and Statistical Modeling 指数威布尔分布的一个新版本:Copulas、数学性质和统计建模
IF 1.5 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-09-03 DOI: 10.18187/pjsor.v19i3.4089
Mohamed K. A. Refaie, Asmaa Ayoob Yaqoob, Mahmoud Ali Selim, Emadeldin I. A. Ali
In this study, the authors of the current work describe a novel exponentiated Weibull distribution that they have invented. The study was written by the writers of the current work. It is required to analyze those properties once the pertinent mathematical properties have been derived. In addition to the dispersion index, the anticipated value, variance, skewness, and kurtosis are also statistically examined. The dispersion index is likewise examined. Other beneficial shapes that the new density can assume include "bathtub," "right skewed," "bimodal and left skewed," "unimodal and left skewed," and "bimodal and right skewed." Additionally, these forms can be merged to create a "bathtub." The term "bathtub (U-HRF)," "constant," "monotonically increasing," "upside down-increasing (reversed U-increasing)," "J-HRF," "upside down-constant," "increasing-constant," or "upside down (reversed U)" may be used to describe the new rate of failure. The greatest likelihood method's efficiency is assessed via graphical analysis. The main measures for this procedure’s evaluation are biases and mean squared errors. The reader is given a scenario that graphically displays the adaptability and value of the innovative distribution through the use of three separate sets of actual data.
在这项研究中,当前工作的作者描述了他们发明的一种新的指数威布尔分布。这项研究是由当前作品的作者撰写的。一旦推导出相关的数学性质,就需要对这些性质进行分析。除离散指数外,期望值、方差、偏度和峰度也进行了统计检验。对色散指数也作了同样的研究。新密度可以假设的其他有益形状包括“浴缸”、“右倾斜”、“双峰和左倾斜”、“单峰和左倾斜”和“双峰和右倾斜”。此外,这些表单可以合并以创建一个“浴缸”。术语“浴盆式(U- hrf)”、“常数”、“单调递增”、“倒挂递增(U-递增)”、“J-HRF”、“倒挂不变”、“递增不变”或“倒挂(倒U)”可用于描述新的故障率。通过图形分析评估了最大似然法的有效性。评估该程序的主要措施是偏差和均方误差。通过使用三组独立的实际数据,给读者提供了一个场景,图形化地展示了创新分布的适应性和价值。
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引用次数: 0
Marginal and Conditional both Extreme Value Distributions: A Case of Stochastic Regression Model 边际和条件双极值分布:一个随机回归模型的例子
IF 1.5 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-09-03 DOI: 10.18187/pjsor.v19i3.4143
S. Bharali, Jiten Hazarika, Kuldeep Goswami
A mathematical model is a mathematical connection that describes some real-life scenario. To handle real-world problems securely and effectively, simulation modelling is required. In this article, the author investigates the stochastic regression model scenario in which the dependent and independent variables in a linear regression model follow a distribution. We assume that the dependent and independent variables both exhibit Type I Extreme Value Distribution. The estimators are then derived using the Modified Maximum Likelihood (MML) estimation method. In accordance with this, a hypothesis testing technique is developed.
数学模型是一种描述现实生活场景的数学联系。为了安全有效地处理现实世界中的问题,需要进行模拟建模。在本文中,作者研究了随机回归模型场景,其中线性回归模型中的因变量和自变量服从分布。我们假设因变量和自变量都表现出I型极值分布。然后使用改进的最大似然(MML)估计方法导出估计量。据此,提出了一种假设检验技术。
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引用次数: 0
An EPQ Model for Delayed Deteriorating Items with Reliability Consideration, Quadratic Demand and Shortages 考虑可靠性、二次需求和短缺的延迟劣化物品EPQ模型
IF 1.5 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2023-09-03 DOI: 10.18187/pjsor.v19i3.4157
Dari Sani
In this paper, an EPQ model for items that exhibit delay in deterioration is developed. It is assumed that there is no demand and no deterioration during production buildup period. Demand starts immediately after production but no deterioration. Then a period of deterioration sets in until the stock finishes. It is also supposed that the cost of a unit product is inversely related to the rate of demand and directly related to the process reliability (as assumed by Tripathy et al. (2015) and modified by Dari and Sani (2015)). The demand before deterioration sets in is quadratic time dependent while demand after deterioration sets in is a constant. Shortages are allowed and partially backordered.  A numerical model is given to compare the simulation model and the statistical analysis conducted on the model to see the effect of measurement changes in other system parameters.
本文建立了具有延迟劣化的物品的EPQ模型。假设在生产积累阶段没有需求,也没有变质。需求在生产后立即开始,但不会恶化。然后一段时间的恶化,直到库存结束。还假设单位产品的成本与需求率呈负相关,与过程可靠性直接相关(由Tripathy等人(2015)假设,并由Dari和Sani(2015)修改)。劣化发生前的需求是二次时间相关的,而劣化发生后的需求是一个常数。允许短缺和部分延期交货。给出了一个数值模型,将仿真模型与对模型进行的统计分析进行比较,以了解测量变化对系统其他参数的影响。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Pakistan Journal of Statistics and Operation Research
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