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Modified Regression Estimators for Improving Mean Estimation -Poisson Regression Approach 改进均值估计的修正回归估计-泊松回归方法
IF 1.5 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-12-06 DOI: 10.18187/pjsor.v18i4.3955
Zakir Hussain Wani Jana, S. Rizvi, Manish Sharma, M. Bhat, Saqib Mushtaq
In this article, a class of Poisson-regression based estimators has been proposed for estimating the finite population mean in simple random sampling without replacement (SRSWOR). The Poisson-regression model is the most common method used to model count responses in many studies. The expression for bias and mean square error (MSE) of proposed class of estimators are obtained up to first order of approximation. The proposed estimators have been compared theoretically with the existing estimators, and the condition under which the proposed class of estimators perform better than existing estimators have been obtained. Two real data sets are considered to assess the performance of the proposed estimators. Numerical findings confirms that the proposed estimators dominate over the existing estimators such as Koc (2021) and Usman et al. (2021) in terms of mean squared error.
本文提出了一类基于泊松回归的估计量,用于估计无置换简单随机抽样(SRSWOR)中的有限总体均值。泊松回归模型是许多研究中最常用的计数反应模型。得到了该类估计器在一阶近似下的偏置和均方误差的表达式。将所提估计量与现有估计量进行了理论比较,得到了所提估计量优于现有估计量的条件。考虑两个真实数据集来评估所提出的估计器的性能。数值结果证实,在均方误差方面,所提出的估计器优于现有的估计器,如Koc(2021)和Usman等人(2021)。
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引用次数: 0
I-optimal Designs for three and four component mixture models in orthogonal blocks 正交块中三、四组分混合模型的i -最优设计
IF 1.5 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-12-06 DOI: 10.18187/pjsor.v18i4.3369
T. Hasan, Syed Adil Hussain
In Industrial and Pharmaceutical experiments it is desired to have best predictions of the response on the basis of small amount of data.  Mixture experiment generally aims to predict the response(s) for all possible mixture blends. When we compute optimal design for mixture response surface we must focus on prediction capability of the design. The conventional optimal criteria, such as D-, A- and E-optimality are not suitable for determining the prediction capability of designs. As I-optimal design minimizes the average variance of prediction over the mixture region, so it clearly focuses on prediction capability of the design. Hence I-optimal criterion seems to be more appropriate in this conjecture.  In this paper we propose the construction of I-optimal mixture designs for a quadratic Scheffé’s and Darroch and Waller’s model in three and four components, using two orthogonal blocks.  I-efficiency of designs is compared with the I-efficiency of D-optimal designs for Scheffé’s and Darroch and Waller’s models.
在工业和制药实验中,希望在少量数据的基础上对反应作出最好的预测。混合试验通常旨在预测所有可能的混合混合的响应。在进行混合响应面优化设计计算时,必须关注设计的预测能力。传统的D-最优、A-最优和e -最优等优化准则不适合用于确定设计的预测能力。由于i -最优设计使混合区域预测的平均方差最小化,因此它明显侧重于设计的预测能力。因此,i -最优准则似乎在这个猜想中更合适。本文提出了用两个正交块构造三分量和四分量的二次scheff模型和Darroch和Waller模型的i -最优混合设计。对scheff、Darroch和Waller的模型比较了设计的i -效率和d -最优设计的i -效率。
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引用次数: 0
A new Jackknifing ridge estimator for logistic regression model 逻辑回归模型的一种新的Jackknifeng-ridge估计
IF 1.5 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-12-06 DOI: 10.18187/pjsor.v18i4.3748
Z. Algamal, N. Hammood
The ridge regression model has been consistently demonstrated to be an attractive shrinkage method to reduce the effects of multicollinearity. The logistic regression model is a well-known model in application when the response variable is binary data. However, it is known that multicollinearity negatively affects the variance of maximum likelihood estimator of the logistic regression coefficients. To address this problem, a logistic ridge estimator has been proposed by numerous researchers. In this paper, a new Jackknifing logistic ridge estimator (NLRE) is proposed and derived. The idea behind the NLRE is to get diagonal matrix with small values of diagonal elements that leading to decrease the shrinkage parameter and, therefore, the resultant estimator can be better with small amount of bias. Our Monte Carlo simulation results suggest that the NLRE estimator can bring significant improvement relative to other existing estimators. In addition, the real application results demonstrate that the NLRE estimator outperforms both logistic ridge estimator and maximum likelihood estimator in terms of predictive performance.
山脊回归模型一直被证明是一种有吸引力的收缩方法,可以减少多重共线性的影响。当响应变量是二进制数据时,逻辑回归模型是应用中众所周知的模型。然而,已知多重共线性对逻辑回归系数的最大似然估计的方差有负面影响。为了解决这个问题,许多研究人员提出了一种逻辑脊估计。本文提出并推导了一种新的Jackknifing逻辑脊估计量(NLRE)。NLRE背后的思想是获得具有较小对角元素值的对角矩阵,从而降低收缩参数,因此,在较小的偏差下,所得估计器可以更好。我们的蒙特卡罗模拟结果表明,相对于其他现有的估计量,NLRE估计量可以带来显著的改进。此外,实际应用结果表明,NLRE估计器在预测性能方面优于逻辑岭估计器和最大似然估计器。
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引用次数: 3
Integration of 4253HT Smoother with Intuitionistic Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model 4253HT平滑器与直觉模糊时间序列预测模型的集成
IF 1.5 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-12-06 DOI: 10.18187/pjsor.v18i4.4212
N. Alam, N. Ramli, Adie Safian Ton Mohamed, Noor Izyan Mohamad Adnan
Fuzzy time series is widely used in forecasting time series data in linguistic forms. Implementing the intuitionistic fuzzy sets (IFS) in fuzzy time series can better handle uncertainties and vagueness in the time series data. However, the time series data always fluctuate randomly and cause drastic changes. In this study, the 4253HT smoother is integrated with the intuitionistic fuzzy time series forecasting model to improve the forecasting accuracy. The proposed model is implemented in predicting the Malaysian crude palm oil prices. The data are firstly smoothed, and followed with the fuzzification process. Next are the transformation of fuzzy sets into IFS and the de-i-fuzzification via equal distribution of hesitancy. The forecasted data are calculated based on the defuzzified values considering the new membership degrees of the IFS after de-i-fuzzification. The results show that the integrated model produces a better forecasting performance compared to the common intuitionistic fuzzy time series forecasting model. In the future, the integration of the data smoothing should be considered before the forecasting of data using fuzzy time series could be performed.
模糊时间序列在语言形式的时间序列数据预测中得到了广泛的应用。在模糊时间序列中实现直觉模糊集(IFS)可以更好地处理时间序列数据中的不确定性和模糊性。然而,时间序列数据总是随机波动,并引起剧烈变化。本研究将4253HT平滑器与直觉模糊时间序列预测模型相结合,以提高预测精度。将该模型应用于马来西亚棕榈油原油价格的预测。首先对数据进行平滑处理,然后进行模糊化处理。接下来是将模糊集转换为IFS,并通过犹豫的等分布进行去模糊化。考虑到去模糊后IFS的新隶属度,基于去模糊值来计算预测数据。结果表明,与常用的直觉模糊时间序列预测模型相比,该综合模型具有更好的预测性能。未来,在使用模糊时间序列进行数据预测之前,应考虑数据平滑的集成。
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引用次数: 0
Amputated Life Testing for Weibull-Fréchet Percentiles: Single, Double and Multiple Group Sampling Inspection Plans with Applications 威布尔-法氏百分位数的截断寿命试验:单、双、多组抽样检验计划及其应用
IF 1.5 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-12-06 DOI: 10.18187/pjsor.v18i4.4190
Basma J. Ahmed, C. Chesneau, M. M. Ali, H. Yousof
When a life test is terminated at a predetermined time to decide whether to accept or refuse the submitted batches, the types of group sampling inspection plans (single, two, and multiple-stages) are introduced. The tables in this study give the optimal number of groups for various confidence levels, examination limits, and values of the ratio of the determined experiment time to the fixed percentile life. At various quality levels, the operating characteristic functions and accompanying producer's risk are derived for various types of group sampling inspection plans. At the determined producer's risk, the optimal ratios of real percentile life to a fixed percentile life are obtained. Three case studies are provided to illustrate the processes described here. Comparisons of single-stage and iterative group sampling plans are introduced. The first, second, and third sample minimums must be used to guarantee that the product's stipulated mean and median lifetimes are reached at a certain degree of customer trust. The suggested sample plans' operational characteristic values and the producer's risk are given. In order to show how the suggested approaches based on the mean life span and median life span of the product may function in reality, certain real-world examples are examined.
当在预定时间终止寿命测试以决定是否接受或拒绝提交的批次时,引入了分组抽样检查计划的类型(单个、两个和多个阶段)。本研究中的表格给出了各种置信水平、检查极限以及确定的实验时间与固定百分位数寿命的比值的最佳组数。在不同的质量水平上,推导了各种类型的成组抽样检验计划的运行特征函数和伴随的生产者风险。在确定的生产者风险下,获得了实际百分寿命与固定百分寿命的最佳比率。提供了三个案例研究来说明这里描述的过程。介绍了单阶段和迭代群抽样方案的比较。必须使用第一个、第二个和第三个最小样本,以确保在一定程度的客户信任下达到产品规定的平均寿命和中值寿命。给出了建议的样本计划的运营特征值和生产商的风险。为了展示基于产品平均寿命和中值寿命的建议方法在现实中如何发挥作用,我们考察了一些真实世界的例子。
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引用次数: 2
An Intelligent Hybrid Model Using Artificial Neural Networks and Particle Swarm Optimization Technique For Financial Crisis Prediction 基于人工神经网络和粒子群优化技术的金融危机预测智能混合模型
IF 1.5 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-12-06 DOI: 10.18187/pjsor.v18i4.3927
Maryam Maryam, Dimas Aryo Anggoro, Muhibah Fata Tika, Fitri Cahya Kusumawati
Financial crisis prediction is a critical issue in the economic phenomenon. Correct predictions can provide the knowledge for stakeholders to make policies to preserve and increase economic stability. Several approaches for predicting the financial crisis have been developed. However, the classification model's performance and prediction accuracy, as well as legal data, are insufficient for usage in real applications. So that, an efficient prediction model is required for higher performance results. This paper adopts a novel two-hybrid intelligent prediction model using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for prediction and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) for optimization. At first, a PSO technique produces the hyperparameter value for ANN to fit the best architecture. They are weights and thresholds. Then, they are used to predict the performance of the given dataset.  In the end, ANN-PSO generates predictions value of crisis conditions. The proposed ANN-PSO model is implemented on time series data of economic conditions in Indonesia. Dataset was obtained from International Monetary Fund and the Indonesian Economic and Financial Statistics. Independent variable data using 13 potential indicators, namely imports, exports, trade exchange rates, foreign exchange reserves, the composite stock price index, real exchange rates, real deposit rates, bank deposits, loan and deposit interest rates, the difference between the real BI rate and the real FED rate, the M1, M2 multiplier, and the ratio of M2 to foreign exchange reserves. Meanwhile, the dependent variable uses the perfect signal value based on the Financial Pressure Index. A detailed statistical analysis of the dataset is also given by threshold value to convey crisis conditions. Experimental analysis shows that the proposed model is reliable based on the different evaluation criteria. The case studies show that the result for predictive data is basically consistent with the actual situation, which has greatly helped the prediction of a financial crisis.  
金融危机预测是经济现象中的一个关键问题。正确的预测可以为利益相关者制定政策以维护和增加经济稳定提供知识。已经开发了几种预测金融危机的方法。然而,分类模型的性能和预测精度以及法律数据不足以在实际应用中使用。因此,需要一个高效的预测模型来获得更高的性能结果。本文采用了一种新的双混合智能预测模型,采用人工神经网络(ANN)进行预测,粒子群优化(PSO)进行优化。首先,PSO技术为ANN产生超参数值,以拟合最佳架构。它们是权重和阈值。然后,它们被用来预测给定数据集的性能。最后,ANN-PSO生成危机条件的预测值。所提出的ANN-PSO模型是在印度尼西亚经济状况的时间序列数据上实现的。数据集来自国际货币基金组织和印度尼西亚经济和金融统计局。使用13个潜在指标的自变量数据,即进口、出口、贸易汇率、外汇储备、综合股价指数、实际汇率、实际存款利率、银行存款、贷款和存款利率、实际BI利率与实际美联储利率之差、M1、M2乘数以及M2与外汇储备之比。同时,因变量使用基于财务压力指数的完美信号值。还通过阈值对数据集进行了详细的统计分析,以传达危机情况。实验分析表明,基于不同的评价标准,该模型是可靠的。案例分析表明,预测数据的结果与实际情况基本一致,对金融危机的预测有很大帮助。
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引用次数: 1
A New Weighted-Lindley Distribution: Properties, Classical and Bayesian Estimation with an Application 一种新的加权林德利分布:性质、经典估计和贝叶斯估计及其应用
IF 1.5 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-12-06 DOI: 10.18187/pjsor.v18i4.4106
B. Hosseini, M. Afshari, M. Alizadeh, A. Afify
The choice of the most suitable statistical distribution for modeling data is very important. Generally, the new distributions are more flexible to model real data that present a high degree of skewness and kurtosis. In this paper, we define a new one-parameter lifetime distribution, so-called weighted-Lindley distribution. Some of its basic properties are investigated. Some classical and Bayesian methods of estimation have been used for estimating its parameter. The behavior of these estimators were investigated by a graphical simulation study. A real data set is analyzed to investigate the flexibility of the new weighted-Lindley distribution.
为建模数据选择最合适的统计分布是非常重要的。一般来说,新的分布更灵活地模拟具有高度偏度和峰度的真实数据。本文定义了一种新的单参数寿命分布,即加权林德利分布。研究了它的一些基本性质。一些经典的估计方法和贝叶斯估计方法被用来估计它的参数。通过图形模拟研究了这些估计器的行为。通过对一个实际数据集的分析,验证了新加权林德利分布的灵活性。
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引用次数: 1
Bayesian Estimation of Transmuted Lomax Mixture Model with an Application to Type-I Censored Windshield Data 跨静音Lomax混合模型的Bayes估计及其在I型挡风玻璃数据中的应用
IF 1.5 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-12-06 DOI: 10.18187/pjsor.v18i4.4059
Muntazir Mehdi, M. Aslam, N. Feroze
Transmuted distributions have been centered of focus for researchers recently due to their flexibility and applicability in statistics. However, the only few contributions have considered estimation for mixture of transmuted lifetime models especially under Bayesian methods has been explored more recently. We have considered the Bayesian estimation of transmuted Lomax mixture model (TLMM) for type-I censored samples. The Bayes estimates (BEs) for informative and non-informative priors. The BEs and posterior risks (PRs) are evaluated using four different loss functions (LFs), two symmetric and two asymmetric, namely the squared error loss function (SELF), precautionary loss function (PLF), weighted balance loss function (WBLF), and general entropy loss function (GELF). Simulations are run using Lindley Approximation method to compare the BEs under various sample sizes and censoring rates. The estimates under informative prior and GELF were found superior to their counterparts. The applicability of the proposed estimates has been illustrated using the analysis of a real data regarding type-I censored failure times of windshields airplanes.
变形分布由于其在统计学中的灵活性和适用性,近年来成为研究人员关注的焦点。然而,只有少数的贡献考虑了对混合变形寿命模型的估计,特别是在贝叶斯方法下的估计最近得到了更多的探索。我们考虑了转换Lomax混合模型(TLMM)对i型截尾样本的贝叶斯估计。有信息先验和无信息先验的贝叶斯估计。采用2对称和2非对称的4种不同损失函数(LFs),即误差平方损失函数(SELF)、预防损失函数(PLF)、加权平衡损失函数(WBLF)和一般熵损失函数(GELF)来评估BEs和后置风险(PRs)。用Lindley近似法进行了模拟,比较了不同样本量和滤波率下的BEs。在信息先验和全球环境经济指数下的估计被发现优于其对应的估计。通过对飞机挡风玻璃i型截尾失效时间的实际数据的分析,说明了所提出估计的适用性。
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引用次数: 0
f-divergence regression models for compositional data 成分数据的f-散度回归模型
IF 1.5 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-12-05 DOI: 10.18187/pjsor.v18i4.3969
A. Alenazi
The paper considers the class of $f$-divergence regression models as alternatives to parametric regression models for compositional data. The special cases examined in this paper include the Jensen-Shannon, Kullback-Leibler, Hellinger, chi^2 and total variation divergence. Strong advantages of the proposed regression models are a) the absence of parametric assumptions and b) the ability to treat zero values (which commonly occur in practice) naturally. Extensive Monte Carlo simulation studies comparatively assess the performance of the models in terms of bias and an empirical evaluation using real data examining further aspects, such as predictive performance and computational cost. The results reveal that Kullback-Leibler and Jensen-Shannon divergence regression models exhibited high quality performance in multiple directions. Ultimately, penalised versions of the Kullback-Leibler divergence regression are introduced and illustrated using real data rendering this model the optimal model to utilise in practice.
本文考虑了一类$f$-散度回归模型作为成分数据的参数回归模型的替代方案。本文研究的特例包括Jensen Shannon、Kullback-Leibler、Hellinger、chi^2和总变异散度。所提出的回归模型的强大优势是a)没有参数假设,b)能够自然地处理零值(这在实践中常见)。广泛的蒙特卡洛模拟研究比较评估了模型在偏差方面的性能,并使用真实数据进行实证评估,进一步考察了预测性能和计算成本等方面。结果表明,Kullback-Leibler和Jensen-Shannon散度回归模型在多个方向上表现出高质量的性能。最后,引入了Kullback-Leibler散度回归的惩罚版本,并使用实际数据对其进行了说明,使该模型成为实践中使用的最佳模型。
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引用次数: 0
The Double Burr Type XII Model: Censored and Uncensored Validation Using a New Nikulin-Rao-Robson Goodness-of-Fit Test with Bayesian and Non-Bayesian Estimation Methods 双毛刺型XII模型:用贝叶斯和非贝叶斯估计方法使用新的Nikulin-Rao-Robson拟合优度检验的删减和未删减验证
IF 1.5 Q2 Mathematics Pub Date : 2022-12-05 DOI: 10.18187/pjsor.v18i4.3600
M. Ibrahim, M. M. Ali, H. Goual, H. Yousof
After studying the mathematical properties of the Double Burr XII model, we present Bayesian and non-Bayesian estimation for its unknown parameters. Also, we constructed a new statistical test for goodness-of-fit in case of complete and censored samples. The modified test is developed based on the Nikulin-Rao-Robson statistic for validation. Simulations are performed for assessing the new test along with nine applications on real data.
在研究了Double-Burr-XII模型的数学性质后,我们对其未知参数提出了贝叶斯和非贝叶斯估计。此外,我们构造了一个新的统计检验,在完全和截尾样本的情况下拟合优度。修正测试是基于Nikulin-Rao-Robson统计数据开发的,用于验证。对新测试进行了模拟评估,并对实际数据进行了九次应用。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Pakistan Journal of Statistics and Operation Research
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