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Automation and the future of the welfare state: basic income as a response to technological change? 自动化与福利国家的未来:基本收入作为对技术变革的回应?
IF 2.4 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/2474736x.2020.1757387
Clau Dermont, David Weisstanner
ABSTRACT Technology entrepreneurs have endorsed a universal basic income (UBI) as a remedy against disruptions of the work force due to automation. The advancement of information technologies could thus drastically reshape welfare state policy, but its impact on citizens’ preferences about UBI is unexplored. We extend previous research on citizens’ preferences showing a link between job automation and demand for redistribution to the case of UBI preferences. Using European Social Survey data in 21 countries, we find no association between risk of job automation and UBI support. Our findings suggest that UBI and redistribution preferences differ in two important ways: First, opinion formation about UBI is still ongoing. Second, demand for UBI is lower than demand for redistribution, and traditional supporters of redistribution are sceptical about an UBI. This points to the multidimensionality of policy preferences. Its universalistic nature could imply that UBI support is more culturally driven than traditional welfare policies.
摘要:科技企业家们已经支持全民基本收入(UBI),作为应对自动化造成的劳动力中断的一种补救措施。因此,信息技术的进步可能会极大地重塑福利国家政策,但其对公民对UBI偏好的影响尚未被探索。我们将先前关于公民偏好的研究扩展到UBI偏好的情况,该研究显示了工作自动化和再分配需求之间的联系。使用21个国家的欧洲社会调查数据,我们发现工作自动化风险与UBI支持之间没有关联。我们的研究结果表明,UBI和再分配偏好在两个重要方面存在差异:首先,关于UBI的意见形成仍在进行中。其次,对UBI的需求低于对再分配的需求,再分配的传统支持者对UBI持怀疑态度。这表明了政策偏好的多维性。其普遍性可能意味着UBI的支持比传统的福利政策更受文化驱动。
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引用次数: 19
Do we need multiple questions to capture feeling threatened by immigrants? 我们需要用多个问题来表达对移民的威胁感吗?
IF 2.4 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/2474736x.2020.1758576
D. Ruedin
ABSTRACT Across Europe some individuals observe immigration with unease and feel threatened by immigrants. Most relevant surveys ask about ‘immigrants’ in the generic sense, but some differentiate between specific immigrant groups. This article uses 24 questions on potential neighbours to systematically vary the characteristics of immigrants in a representative survey in Switzerland, 2013. Respondents systematically consider immigrants from distant cultures and those more likely to receive welfare benefits as more threatening. At the same time, those who feel threatened by one kind of immigrants also tend to feel threatened by others: We can validly express opposition to immigrants in a single dimension. Questions about immigrants in the generic sense likely capture the right correlates, but they may miss differences in the level of threat evoked by different immigrants.
在欧洲各地,一些人对移民感到不安,并感到受到移民的威胁。大多数相关调查询问的是一般意义上的“移民”,但有些调查对特定移民群体进行了区分。本文在2013年瑞士的一项代表性调查中使用24个关于潜在邻居的问题来系统地改变移民的特征。受访者系统地认为来自遥远文化的移民和那些更有可能获得福利的移民更具威胁性。同时,那些对某一种移民感到威胁的人,也容易对其他移民感到威胁:我们可以在单一维度上有效地表达对移民的反对。一般意义上关于移民的问题可能抓住了正确的关联,但它们可能忽略了不同移民引发的威胁程度的差异。
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引用次数: 6
Mixed competences and ‘second generation’ trade agreements: a consideration of EU disintegration 混合能力和“第二代”贸易协定:对欧盟解体的考虑
IF 2.4 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/2474736x.2020.1806003
Valerie J. D’Erman
ABSTRACT This paper considers recent developments in EU trade policy in the context of the theoretical framework of ‘disintegration’. The events surrounding the conclusion of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) with Canada, as well as the CJEU’s opinion on the EU-Singapore free trade agreement, underscore the limits to centralized decision-making in trade policy for newer ‘second generation’ trade agreements. The argument is that recent political developments with EU trade agreements have complicated the possibility for further exclusive competence at the supranational level, and in doing so have indirectly illustrated some potential limits to further economic integration. This examination is helpful when considering if (or to what degree) the logic of European integration has been weakened in the aftermath of various crises, and whether the federal structure of EU governance is able to accommodate changes in the allocation of competences in trade policy.
本文在“解体”理论框架的背景下考虑了欧盟贸易政策的最新发展。围绕与加拿大的全面经济贸易协定(CETA)达成的事件,以及欧洲法院对欧盟-新加坡自由贸易协定的意见,都突显了新“第二代”贸易协定在贸易政策方面集中决策的局限性。他们的论点是,最近欧盟贸易协定的政治发展,使在超国家层面进一步获得排他性能力的可能性变得更加复杂,从而间接表明了进一步经济一体化的一些潜在限制。在考虑欧洲一体化的逻辑在各种危机之后是否(或在何种程度上)被削弱,以及欧盟治理的联邦结构是否能够适应贸易政策权力分配的变化时,这种考察是有帮助的。
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引用次数: 4
Love is blind. Partisanship and perception of negative campaign messages in a multiparty system 爱是盲目的。党派之争和对多党制中负面竞选信息的认知
IF 2.4 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/2474736x.2020.1806002
Martin Haselmayer, Lisa Hirsch, Marcelo Jenny
ABSTRACT We study how partisanship influences the perception of directed campaign statements of varying polarity and sentiment strength. Using a crowdsourced survey experiment with German participants, we find asymmetrical perceptual biases. Partisan respondents perceive negative campaigning from or about a party they favour, as less negative than non-partisans. The discounting effect applies particularly for voters with stronger preferences and for messages that are more strongly negative. Partisan preferences only weakly influence the perception of neutral or positive campaign statements. The discounting biases found for negative statements point at limits of negative campaigning effects in electoral contests. Different effects for weakly and strongly worded messages substantiate concerns that dichotomous approaches to negative campaigning could miss important variation in party communication and its effects.
摘要:我们研究党派关系如何影响不同极性和情绪强度的定向竞选声明的感知。通过对德国参与者的众包调查实验,我们发现了不对称的感知偏差。有党派倾向的受访者认为来自或关于他们所支持的政党的负面竞选活动比无党派的人更消极。这种折现效应尤其适用于那些有强烈偏好的选民,以及那些负面信息更为强烈的选民。党派偏好只会微弱地影响中立或积极竞选言论的感知。对负面言论的贴现偏见指出了选举中负面竞选效应的局限性。措辞弱和措辞强烈的信息所产生的不同影响证实了人们的担忧,即对消极竞选的两分法可能会错过政党沟通及其影响的重要变化。
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引用次数: 7
The role of societal cues in explaining attitudes toward international organizations: the least likely case of authoritarian contexts 社会线索在解释对国际组织态度中的作用:威权主义背景下最不可能的情况
IF 2.4 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/2474736x.2020.1771189
Mujtaba Isani, Bernd Schlipphak
ABSTRACT How strong are societal cues – understood as the linkage between heuristics present in society and the object of evaluation – compared to elite cues in influencing citizens’ attitudes toward international politics? Our general argument is that societal cues have so far been underestimated in their effectiveness. More specifically, we argue that societal cues may have a direct effect or significantly diminish the effect of elite cues even in authoritarian contexts, when both cues are used at the same time. To test our hypotheses, we turn to cueing effects on citizens’ UN attitudes in two Middle Eastern countries: Saudi Arabia and Jordan. First, we depict that anti-Americanism is a significant and substantial heuristic in shaping Arab attitudes toward the UN. Thereafter, the results of a self-administered survey experiment show that governmental cues significantly and substantially affect public UN favorability. While cueing citizens with a heuristic linking the US to the UN has no direct effect in itself, it substantially weakens the effect of the governmental cues when both are employed at the same time. We outline the important implications of these findings at the end of the article.
摘要在影响公民对国际政治的态度方面,社会线索(被理解为社会中存在的启发式方法和评估对象之间的联系)与精英线索相比有多强?我们的一般论点是,到目前为止,社会线索的有效性被低估了。更具体地说,我们认为,即使在威权主义背景下,当两种线索同时使用时,社会线索也可能具有直接影响或显著削弱精英线索的影响。为了检验我们的假设,我们研究了沙特阿拉伯和约旦这两个中东国家公民对联合国态度的暗示效应。首先,我们描述了反美主义在塑造阿拉伯人对联合国的态度方面是一种重要而实质性的启发。此后,一项自我管理的调查实验的结果表明,政府暗示对公众对联合国的好感度产生了重大影响。虽然用将美国与联合国联系起来的启发式方法提示公民本身没有直接影响,但当两者同时使用时,它大大削弱了政府提示的效果。我们在文章末尾概述了这些发现的重要意义。
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引用次数: 7
Diaspora-management policies of modern ‘city-states’: strategies and practices of engaging Overseas Chinese by Shanghai Municipal Government 现代“城邦”的侨务管理政策——上海市政府侨务工作的策略与实践
IF 2.4 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/2474736x.2020.1807370
J. Hasić
ABSTRACT The number of states that have developed layered engagement policies aimed at co-opting various migrant or diaspora groups has exponentially risen in the past couple of years. The highest political leadership of China has also recognized the need to tackle this matter systematically within its national political and institutional setup. The primary objective of this research note is to explore the Chinese government's framing and capacity to shape cooperation mechanisms with Chinese migrant and diaspora communities abroad, through analyzing the work of the Office of Overseas Chinese Affairs of the Shanghai Municipal Government. My primary aim is to trace and reconstruct locally designed mechanisms employed by government agents to capture certain migrant groups into their own structures of local programmes. I outline what the practical implications of such localized management practices in China are, specifically focusing on agency, institutions and processes, and assessing the impact of the resulting complexities in the current institutional set-up of the Shanghai Municipality.
在过去几年中,制定了旨在吸纳各种移民或散居群体的分层接触政策的国家数量呈指数级增长。中国的最高政治领导层也认识到有必要在国家政治和体制机构内系统地解决这一问题。本研究报告的主要目的是通过分析上海市政府侨办的工作,探讨中国政府与海外华人移民和侨民社区合作机制的框架和能力。我的主要目的是追踪和重建当地设计的机制,这些机制是政府机构用来将某些移民群体纳入他们自己的地方方案结构的。我概述了这种本地化管理实践在中国的实际意义,特别关注机构、机构和流程,并评估了上海市当前机构设置中由此产生的复杂性的影响。
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引用次数: 1
National internal security policies across Europe – a comparative analysis applying big data clustering techniques 欧洲国家内部安全政策——应用大数据聚类技术的比较分析
IF 2.4 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/2474736x.2020.1787796
Andreas Kattler, Felix Ettensperger
ABSTRACT Our contribution examines two questions regarding the internal security policies of 28 European countries: First, the question which different internal security conceptions regarding crime management exist and second, how countries cluster along these conceptions. As data foundation, we use a two-dimensional approach examining the dimensions of capabilities and punitivity with two variables for each. For the dimension of capabilities, we utilize the spending share of government budget for internal security and the relative number of police officers and for the punitivity dimension, we consider average prison terms and the share of alternatives to conventional incarceration. By using this data in combination with modern clustering techniques, we prove that our results are stable and cohesive despite the wide variety of different methods and clustering techniques deployed, which include state-of-the-art unsupervised learning algorithms adapted from big data frameworks. By also including most Eastern European Countries in a comparative European setup for the first time, we identify five different clusters, namely a Western and Central European Cluster, a liberal Scandinavian cluster, two different Southern and Eastern European clusters with high capabilities and very uneven levels of punitivity, and one cluster with special cases with very infrequent use of alternatives to conventional punishment.
摘要:我们的贡献考察了28个欧洲国家的内部安全政策的两个问题:第一,关于犯罪管理,存在哪些不同的内部安全概念;第二,各国如何沿着这些概念聚集。作为数据基础,我们使用二维方法来检查能力和惩罚性的维度,每个维度有两个变量。在能力方面,我们利用政府预算中用于内部安全的支出份额和警察的相对数量;在惩罚方面,我们考虑平均刑期和传统监禁替代方案的份额。通过将这些数据与现代聚类技术相结合,我们证明了我们的结果是稳定和有凝聚力的,尽管部署了各种不同的方法和聚类技术,其中包括改编自大数据框架的最先进的无监督学习算法。通过首次将大多数东欧国家纳入比较欧洲格局,我们确定了五个不同的集群,即西欧和中欧集群、自由的斯堪的纳维亚集群、两个不同的南欧和东欧集群,它们具有很高的能力和极不均衡的惩罚水平,以及一组特殊案件,很少使用传统惩罚的替代办法。
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引用次数: 1
Principals and transceivers: regional authorities in EU trade negotiations 负责人和收发器:欧盟贸易谈判中的地区当局
IF 2.4 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/2474736x.2020.1714454
Margaux Kersschot, Bart. Kerremans, Dirk De Bièvre
ABSTRACT The EU conducts its external trade policy under close scrutiny by member-states. Yet, what about the role of regional authorities in federal states? To answer, we look at the principal-agent chain of delegation and explore to which extent regions with stakes and competencies in the matter exert control over EU policies. We distinguish three ideal-type roles regions can perform: principals in their own right, members of collective principals, and introduce the new concept of ‘transceivers’. A region can perform the role of principal with formal competencies, as does Flanders, which as one of multiple principals can withhold a Belgian decision. A region can also be one of a collective group of principals, as is the case for the region Hesse. Regions can finally perform the role of a ‘transceiver’ of information from policy-makers to constituencies (and vice versa), akin to the role of endorser, without formal framework for involvement – as does Scotland. Since regions and states alike depend on private sector information, two conclusions prevail. First, despite formal competencies, regions that are members of collective principals struggle becoming the sole interlocutor for the private sector. Second, despite lacking competencies, transceiver-regions are crucial interlocutors complementing member-state control over EU trade policy.
欧盟的对外贸易政策是在成员国的密切关注下实施的。然而,联邦制州的地方当局的作用如何呢?为了回答这个问题,我们研究了委托代理链,并探讨了在这件事上有利害关系和能力的地区在多大程度上对欧盟政策施加控制。我们区分了区域可以扮演的三种理想类型的角色:独立的主体,集体主体的成员,并引入了“收发器”的新概念。一个地区可以扮演具有正式能力的校长角色,佛兰德斯也是如此,作为多个校长之一的佛兰德斯可以保留比利时的决定。一个地区也可以是一组集体负责人之一,就像黑森地区的情况一样。地区最终可以像苏格兰一样,在没有正式参与框架的情况下,扮演政策制定者和选民之间信息“收发器”的角色(反之亦然),类似于背书者的角色。由于地区和国家都依赖于私营部门的信息,因此有两个结论占上风。首先,尽管有正式的能力,作为集体主体成员的地区仍在努力成为私营部门的唯一对话者。其次,尽管缺乏能力,但收发区是成员国对欧盟贸易政策控制的重要补充。
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引用次数: 6
Nepotism, political competition and overemployment 裙带关系、政治竞争和过度就业
IF 2.4 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/2474736x.2020.1781542
Rimvydas Ragauskas, Ieva Valeškaitė
ABSTRACT We extend the research on nepotism in public institutions by first investigating the determinants of nepotism, then by establishing the association between nepotism levels and overstaffing. We take advantage of novel and uniquely reliable data on levels of nepotism within Lithuanian municipalities to test three expectations: first, we expect to see a higher level of nepotism in municipalities with fewer economic opportunities. Second, we hypothesize that nepotism is more prevalent in regions with less democratic accountability. Third, we argue that because nepotism distorts institutional incentives, we should observe an association between nepotism and overstaffing of public institutions. Our analysis does not ultimately show a meaningful relationship between the supply of economic opportunities and penetration of relative networks in public institutions. Yet, our work does confirm that robust political competition increases accountability and reduces levels of state exploitation. We also establish a link between nepotism and a swollen public sector: the penetration of nepotism goes hand in hand with higher levels of employment in Lithuanian municipality administrations.
摘要本文首先考察了公共机构裙带关系的决定因素,然后建立了裙带关系水平与人员臃肿之间的关系,从而扩展了对裙带关系的研究。我们利用立陶宛城市内裙带关系水平的新颖而独特的可靠数据来测试三个预期:首先,我们预计在经济机会较少的城市中,裙带关系水平会更高。其次,我们假设裙带关系在民主问责制较弱的地区更为普遍。第三,我们认为,由于裙带关系扭曲了制度激励,我们应该观察到裙带关系与公共机构人员过多之间的联系。我们的分析最终并没有显示出经济机会的供应与公共机构中相关网络的渗透之间存在有意义的关系。然而,我们的工作确实证实,强有力的政治竞争增加了问责制,降低了国家剥削的水平。我们还建立了裙带关系与膨胀的公共部门之间的联系:裙带关系的渗透与立陶宛市政当局较高的就业率密切相关。
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引用次数: 4
Going beyond values versus self-interest: whose attitudes change after employment transitions? 超越价值观与自身利益:就业转型后谁的态度会改变?
IF 2.4 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Pub Date : 2020-01-01 DOI: 10.1080/2474736X.2020.1809473
Nadja Wehl
ABSTRACT Are self-interest or presumably stable value orientations and other predispositions the main drivers behind social policy attitudes? This article contributes to this debate by moving away from its binary discussion. It differentiates between attitude changes driven by self-interest that are in line with pre-existing predispositions and those that are not. Empirically, this article focuses on changes of labour market policy attitudes after employment transitions and job insecurity changes. More precisely, this article differentiates between attitude changes within three subgroups. (A) People whose self-interest after the employment transitions reinforces their prior predispositions. (B) People without strong prior predispositions, who are thus unconstrained by them. And (C) people whose self-interest after the employment transitions contradicts their prior predispositions. Panel analyses with fixed effects use German SOEP waves from 1997 and 2002. Main effects suggest an important role for self-interest as they show significant attitudinal reactions after most of the transitions and perception changes. However, subgroup analyses result in a somewhat mixed picture. They show attitude changes within different subgroups after different transitions and perception changes. This mixed empirical picture suggests caution when interpreting attitudinal change or stability after changing material circumstances as a sign for the relative importance of self-interest or predispositions.
摘要社会政策态度背后的主要驱动因素是自身利益还是稳定的价值取向和其他倾向?这篇文章脱离了二元讨论,为这场辩论做出了贡献。它区分了由符合预先存在的倾向的自身利益驱动的态度变化和不符合预先存在倾向的态度变化。从经验上看,本文关注的是就业转型后劳动力市场政策态度的变化和工作不安全感的变化。更准确地说,这篇文章区分了三个子组中的态度变化。(A) 就业转型后的个人利益强化了他们之前的倾向。(B) 先前没有强烈倾向的人,因此不受其约束。以及(C)在就业转变后,其自身利益与之前的倾向相矛盾的人。具有固定效应的面板分析使用了1997年和2002年的德国SOEP波。主要效应表明自身利益发挥着重要作用,因为它们在大多数转变和认知变化后表现出显著的态度反应。然而,亚组分析的结果有点喜忧参半。它们显示了不同亚组在不同的转变和感知变化后的态度变化。这种混合的经验图景表明,在将物质环境变化后的态度变化或稳定解释为自身利益或倾向的相对重要性时要谨慎。
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引用次数: 1
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Political Research Exchange
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