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Data-driven prediction of ship fuel oil consumption based on machine learning models considering meteorological factors 基于考虑气象因素的机器学习模型的船舶燃油消耗量数据驱动预测
IF 1.8 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, MARINE Pub Date : 2023-11-22 DOI: 10.1177/14750902231210047
Huirong Yang, Zhuo Sun, Peixiu Han, Mengjie Ma
To improve the energy efficiency of ships and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the implementation of energy-efficient operation measures is particularly important. Driven by this, this study was dedicated to improving the accuracy of ship fuel oil consumption (FOC) prediction and laying the foundation for optimizing energy-efficient operations. Firstly, we combined voyage reports and meteorological data and constructed six datasets containing different features. These features comprise navigation-related features encompassing sailing speed, displacement and trim, as well as meteorological features encompassing wind, wave, sea current, sea water salinity and sea water temperature. Secondly, we conducted experiments with 14 popular ML models on the datasets and compared the prediction performance of different models by a new scoring system. Finally, we explored the advantages and disadvantages of each dataset based on the model performance scoring results and analyzed the effects of related meteorological factors on FOC during navigation. The key findings of the proposed work were that extra trees (ET), random forest (RF), XGBoost, and LightGBM had good fitting and generalization performance. Set5, the dataset containing the most complete meteorological data, achieved the best prediction results. In particular, it had an R2 (test) of 0.9317 on the ET model, which was 1.97% higher than the R2 (test) of the dataset using only voyage reports. The conclusions can assist shipping companies in constructing a ship FOC prediction framework and developing ship fuel-saving strategies.
为提高船舶能效,减少温室气体(GHG)排放,实施节能运营措施尤为重要。在此驱动下,本研究致力于提高船舶燃油消耗量(FOC)预测的准确性,为优化节能运营奠定基础。首先,我们结合航行报告和气象数据,构建了六个包含不同特征的数据集。这些特征包括航行速度、排水量和修整度等航行相关特征,以及风、波浪、海流、海水盐度和海水温度等气象特征。其次,我们在数据集上使用 14 个流行的 ML 模型进行了实验,并通过新的评分系统比较了不同模型的预测性能。最后,我们根据模型性能评分结果探讨了各数据集的优缺点,并分析了相关气象因素对航行过程中 FOC 的影响。这项工作的主要发现是,额外树(ET)、随机森林(RF)、XGBoost 和 LightGBM 具有良好的拟合和泛化性能。包含最完整气象数据的数据集 Set5 取得了最好的预测结果。其中,ET 模型的 R2(测试)为 0.9317,比仅使用航次报告的数据集的 R2(测试)高 1.97%。这些结论有助于航运公司构建船舶燃料成本预测框架和制定船舶节油战略。
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引用次数: 0
Possible approaches to the study of emissions from ships during their operations in ports 研究船舶在港口作业期间排放物的可能方法
IF 1.8 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, MARINE Pub Date : 2023-11-20 DOI: 10.1177/14750902231210564
S. Ergin, L. Mocerino, Franco Quaranta
The emissions from ships are the key factor influencing the air quality near large ports. Although ship emissions are difficult to quantify, doing so can help port management find logistical solutions that can reduce the impact of having a large number of giant ships in a limited space. The joint study between the University of Naples and Istanbul Technical University, which focuses on the investigation of ship emissions in ports, is presented in this paper. It is expected that this study will lead to create new techniques for calculating, measuring, and validating emissions from ships at ports.
船舶排放是影响大型港口附近空气质量的关键因素。虽然船舶排放难以量化,但量化可以帮助港口管理部门找到物流解决方案,减少在有限空间内拥有大量巨型船舶所造成的影响。本文介绍了那不勒斯大学和伊斯坦布尔技术大学的联合研究,重点是调查港口的船舶排放情况。预计这项研究将开发出计算、测量和验证港口船舶排放的新技术。
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引用次数: 0
Life cycle assessment of ammonia/hydrogen-driven marine propulsion 氨/氢驱动船舶推进的生命周期评估
IF 1.8 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, MARINE Pub Date : 2023-11-18 DOI: 10.1177/14750902231207159
D. Dong, A. Schönborn, Anastasia Christodoulou, A. Ölçer, José González-Celis
Marine fuels are the main sources of pollution from shipping industry. Hydrogen and ammonia have been suggested to be alternative fuels for shipping as these two fuels do not emit carbon dioxides in the combustion process. This study employed life cycle assessment method to compare the environmental performance of propulsion systems using hydrogen and ammonia as marine fuels to fossil fuels. 2-stroke and 4-stroke engines of tankers using fossil fuels were chosen as base case scenarios. Alternative scenarios using ‘green’ and ‘blue’ hydrogen and ammonia with the support of pilot fuel were then compared to the base case scenarios. While the performance of the coming combustion concepts for hydrogen and ammonia engines are still unknown, preliminary estimations were used in this study. The results showed that hydrogen and ammonia could substantially reduce the global warming potential, compared with the fossil fuel scenarios. Hydrogen and ammonia are also expected to be highly effective in cutting down the particulate matter and the emission of black carbon.
船用燃料是航运业的主要污染源。氢气和氨气在燃烧过程中不会排放二氧化碳,因此被建议作为航运业的替代燃料。本研究采用生命周期评估方法,比较了使用氢和氨作为船用燃料的推进系统与化石燃料的环境性能。使用化石燃料的油轮的二冲程和四冲程发动机被选为基本方案。然后将使用 "绿色 "和 "蓝色 "氢气和氨气并辅以试验燃料的替代方案与基础方案进行比较。虽然氢气和氨气发动机未来燃烧概念的性能尚不清楚,但本研究采用了初步估算。结果表明,与化石燃料方案相比,氢气和氨气可大幅降低全球变暖潜势。氢气和氨气在减少微粒物质和黑碳排放方面也会非常有效。
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引用次数: 0
Exergy efficiency and EEXI analysis of a marine power plant at partial load conditions 部分负荷条件下海洋发电厂的能效和 EEXI 分析
IF 1.8 4区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, MARINE Pub Date : 2023-11-14 DOI: 10.1177/14750902231207133
G. Kocak, Y. Durmusoglu
Energy efficiency and environmental protection are becoming more important in the world. Almost 90% of the world trade is carried by sea which makes energy efficiency very important for the maritime sector. Exergetic method is a powerful scientific tool for measuring energy efficiency. The ships are not always cruising at maximum load conditions. The situations such as narrow water passages, maneuvering, and, hoteling etc. are partial load conditions and the exergy loss in power systems reaches maximum values at these conditions. Besides the new IMO regulation forces the sector to reduce emissions through Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index (EEXI) and one of the most popular solutions is Engine Power Limitation (EPL). In the literature there are limited studies investigating exergy efficiencies of partial load conditions of a marine power plant. In this article, the performance analyses of a combined power system in partial load conditions are carried out using exergy method. The considered partial load conditions are maximum-ahead, full-ahead, half-ahead, slow-ahead and dead-slow-ahead loads of the engine. The results show that, the exergy efficiency of the overall system is decreasing at lower load conditions. It is observed that the maximum exergy efficiency is 51.6% which is reached at 96 rpm. The best condition considering both exergy efficiency and EEXI is 80 rpm of main engine. At slow-ahead and dead-slow-ahead conditions the exergy efficiency decreases to about 33%.
能源效率和环境保护在世界上正变得越来越重要。世界上几乎 90% 的贸易都是通过海运进行的,因此能源效率对海运业来说非常重要。能效测量法是测量能源效率的有力科学工具。船舶并不总是在最大负荷条件下航行。狭窄的水道、机动、停泊等情况都属于部分负荷条件,在这些条件下,动力系统的放能损失达到最大值。此外,国际海事组织(IMO)的新规定迫使船舶行业通过现有船舶能效指数(EEXI)来减少排放,而最流行的解决方案之一就是发动机功率限制(EPL)。文献中对船用发电厂部分负荷条件下的放能效率研究有限。本文采用放能法对部分负荷条件下的联合动力系统进行了性能分析。考虑的部分负荷条件包括发动机的最大超前负荷、全超前负荷、半超前负荷、慢超前负荷和死慢超前负荷。结果表明,在较低负载条件下,整个系统的放能效率在下降。据观察,发动机在 96 rpm 转速时的能效最高,达到 51.6%。同时考虑到能效和 EEXI 的最佳条件是主机转速为 80 rpm。在低速前行和死低速前行条件下,能效降低至约 33%。
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引用次数: 0
Thermo-economic optimization of an ORC system for a dual-fuel marine engine 船用双燃料发动机ORC系统的热经济性优化
4区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, MARINE Pub Date : 2023-11-14 DOI: 10.1177/14750902231207128
Mehmet Akman, Selma Ergin
The Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) is one of the most promising systems to recover the waste heat sourced from internal combustion engines. In this study, thermodynamic, economic and environmental analyses of the scavenge air cooling water-driven Waste Heat Recovery System (WHRS) based on the organic Rankine cycle are conducted for a dual-fuel marine engine integrated with exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) system. Zero ozone-depleting and low global warming potential working fluids; R245fa, R236ea from hydrofluorocarbons, R600a, R601a from hydrocarbons, R1234ze and R1234yf from hydrofluoroolefins are selected for the low-grade WHRS. In addition to the thermal analyses, the mass and volume of the system along with the safety factors of the working fluids are evaluated to judge the physical applicability of the system for ships. Thermo-economic performances of the fluids are analyzed, optimized and compared under various engine loads, Tier II and Tier III modes to reveal the effects of different engine operating conditions on the parameters. According to the results, scavenge air has a significant amount of waste heat at medium and heavy loads and switching the engine mode remarkably affects the performance of the WHRS. R601a shows the best thermo-economic performance, however, considering the applicability of the system R236ea is the most suitable working fluid for the ORC WHRS. The overall thermal efficiency of the power generation system can be increased by about 2.8%.
有机朗肯循环(ORC)是最有前途的回收内燃机余热的系统之一。本文针对某双燃料船用发动机与废气再循环(EGR)系统集成,对基于有机朗肯循环的清风冷却水余热回收系统(WHRS)进行了热力学、经济和环境分析。零臭氧消耗和低全球变暖潜能值的工作流体;选用来自氢氟烃的R245fa、R236ea、来自碳氢化合物的R600a、R601a、来自氢氟烯烃的R1234ze和R1234yf作为低品位WHRS。除了热分析外,还评估了系统的质量和体积以及工作流体的安全系数,以判断系统在船舶上的物理适用性。通过分析、优化和比较不同发动机载荷、Tier II和Tier III模式下液体的热经济性能,揭示不同发动机工况对参数的影响。结果表明,在中、重载工况下,后置空气产生了大量的余热,发动机模式的切换对后置空气的性能有显著影响。R601a表现出最好的热经济性能,然而,考虑到系统的适用性,R236ea是最适合ORC WHRS的工作流体。发电系统的整体热效率可提高2.8%左右。
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引用次数: 0
Marine diesel engine turbocharger fouling phenomenon risk assessment application by using fuzzy FMEA method 应用模糊FMEA方法对船用柴油机涡轮增压器污垢现象进行风险评价
4区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, MARINE Pub Date : 2023-11-14 DOI: 10.1177/14750902231208848
Bulut Ozan Ceylan
Turbocharger fouling phenomenon was analyzed from the risk assessment perspective in this study. The research employed exhaust system and turbocharger equipment of commercial ship that equipped with a Doosan-MAN B&W 6S50 MC-C diesel engine was used as the main research materials, and utilized the fuzzy Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) based on the expert system as a methodical approach. The experts revealed different types of turbocharger fouling failure modes (FMs), along with their respective causes and subsequent consequences. Following that, the specialists allocated an O, S, and D score to each FM. Within the framework of fuzzy logic, the process entails the establishment of input and output membership functions, as well as the construction of a fuzzy model incorporating an inference mechanism and a rule base. Based on the analysis findings, the three primary factors are as follows: low cylinder compression pressure with a Fuzzy Risk Priority Number (FRPN) score of 6.95, high main engine fuel oil consumption with a score of 6.92, and high CO, CO 2 , SO x emissions with a 6.45. The phenomenon of turbocharger fouling, being an inherent occurrence, has significant ramifications on the main engine, the vessel as a whole, and the ecological surroundings. The quantitative results presented in this study provide valuable insights into the risks associated with maritime endeavors. The data generated from this research can be used by stakeholders in the maritime industry to better understand this situation and take proactive measures to mitigate potential risks in the future. Furthermore, the findings of the research provide corroboration for the implementation of predictive maintenance procedures.
本研究从风险评估的角度对涡轮增压器结垢现象进行分析。本研究以Doosan-MAN B&W 6S50 MC-C型柴油机的商船排气系统和涡轮增压器设备为主要研究材料,采用基于专家系统的模糊失效模式和影响分析(FMEA)作为方法。专家们揭示了不同类型的涡轮增压器污垢失效模式(FMs),以及它们各自的原因和随后的后果。随后,专家们给每个FM分配了0、S和D分。在模糊逻辑框架内,该过程需要建立输入和输出隶属函数,以及构建包含推理机制和规则库的模糊模型。根据分析结果,三个主要影响因素为:气缸压缩压力低,模糊风险优先数(FRPN)评分为6.95;主机燃油消耗量高,评分为6.92;CO、CO 2、SO x排放高,评分为6.45。增压器结垢现象是一种固有现象,对主机、整机和生态环境都有重大影响。本研究中提出的定量结果为与海事活动相关的风险提供了有价值的见解。海运业的利益相关者可以使用本研究产生的数据来更好地了解这种情况,并采取积极措施来减轻未来的潜在风险。此外,研究结果为预测性维护程序的实施提供了佐证。
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引用次数: 0
Robust adaptive control of dynamic positioning ship under thruster faults and unknown disturbances 推力器故障和未知干扰下船舶动态定位鲁棒自适应控制
4区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, MARINE Pub Date : 2023-11-14 DOI: 10.1177/14750902231209359
Qingtao Gong, Zhipeng Liu, Xin Hu, Yao Teng, Yanqing Han, Guojie Han
The robust adaptive anti-disturbance fault-tolerant control strategy for the dynamic positioning (DP) system of ships is built on the disturbance observer, the adaptive fault observer with the vectorial backstepping approach. The disturbance observer is constructed to estimate the first-order Markov disturbances. The adaptive fault observer with the projection algorithm is designed to estimate partial thruster faults. By employing the vectorial backstepping method, the robust adaptive anti-disturbance fault-tolerant control law is developed to simultaneously achieve the disturbance compensation and the partial thruster fault tolerant. It is demonstrated using the Lyapunov functions that the robust adaptive anti-disturbance fault-tolerant controller can maintain the DP of the ship’s position and heading to achieve the desired value, while guaranteeing the global stability of all signals in the DP closed-loop control system. Finally, different cases in the unknown ocean disturbance environment demonstrate the effectiveness of the robust adaptive anti-disturbance fault-tolerant control strategy.
基于扰动观测器和矢量反步法的自适应故障观测器,建立了船舶动态定位系统的鲁棒自适应抗干扰容错控制策略。构造了扰动观测器来估计一阶马尔可夫扰动。设计了带投影算法的自适应故障观测器来估计推进器部分故障。采用矢量反步法,建立了鲁棒自适应抗干扰容错控制律,实现了干扰补偿和部分推力器容错的同时实现。利用Lyapunov函数证明了鲁棒自适应抗扰容错控制器能够保持船舶位置和航向的DP值达到期望值,同时保证DP闭环控制系统中所有信号的全局稳定性。最后,在未知海洋扰动环境下的不同实例验证了鲁棒自适应抗扰动容错控制策略的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Development of propulsion solutions for river-sea ships of the northern Black Sea 黑海北部内海船舶推进解决方案的开发
4区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, MARINE Pub Date : 2023-10-31 DOI: 10.1177/14750902231203443
Oleksandr L Hordiienko, Andriy V Pechenyuk
Conception of hull form and propulsion design of river-sea ships essentially depends on the restrictions of specific inland waterways. River-sea ships of the Northern Black Sea were historically designed for operation through the locks of European inland waterways of the former Soviet Union. River-sea vessels of the late Soviet Union were designed as simple and technological. After dramatic economical changes the ships of new generation acquired completely different features of general and propulsion design. The vessels had unusually full hull forms and azimuthal thrusters. As is shown in the paper, the full hull forms have sound economic grounds for the considered ship type. However, azimuthal thrusters have controversial features and are not non-alternative. Based on analysis of previous and current propulsion solutions their further development is proposed within the considered ship type. Hull forms designed with specially developed CFD methods are recommended as a further step toward propulsion optimality.
内海船舶的船型构思和推进设计在本质上取决于特定内河航道的限制。历史上,黑海北部的内河船是为通过前苏联的欧洲内河航道的船闸而设计的。苏联后期的内海船设计简单,技术含量高。在经历了巨大的经济变化之后,新一代船舶在总体设计和推进设计上都有了完全不同的特点。这些船只有着不同寻常的完整船身和方位推进器。正如文中所示,对于所考虑的船型,全船型具有良好的经济基础。然而,方位推进器有争议的特点,并不是不可替代的。在分析以往和当前推进方案的基础上,提出了在考虑的船型内进一步发展的方案。建议采用专门开发的CFD方法设计船体形式,以进一步实现推进优化。
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引用次数: 0
Investigation of acoustic radiation from a sphere vibrating on the free surface of a finite depth water using a boundary element method 用边界元法研究在有限深度的自由水面上振动的球体声辐射
4区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, MARINE Pub Date : 2023-10-31 DOI: 10.1177/14750902231205349
Burak Üstündağ, Bahadir Uğurlu, Ahmet Ergin
In this study, a boundary element method (BEM) is applied to investigate acoustic radiation from a sphere vibrating in pulsating mode on the free surface of finite or infinite depth water. Effect of the free surface is introduced by employing a half-space Green’s function. A modified version of the Helmholtz integral equation (HIE) is used to calculate acoustic radiation from the sphere vibrating in pulsating mode on the free surface. Free-terms of the HIE are calculated using two different forms of integrals and “dummy” boundary elements. Moreover, to simulate finite depth fluid medium, a chain image-source method is used to derive a waveguide Green’s function. To demonstrate applicability of the method presented, calculated acoustic pressures are compared with those by finite element method (FEM) and analytical calculations. Additionally, the effects of submergence depth and vibration frequency on acoustic radiation are investigated for infinitely deep water together with those of water depth and field point distance on acoustic radiation for finite water depth medium. The calculations show that there is a good agreement between BEM, FEM and analytical solutions. Also, it is observed that field point distance significantly affects the convergence behavior of waveguide Green’s function. Furthermore, it is noted that submergence depth, domain depth and vibration frequency have pronounce influence on radiated pressure amplitude and pressure field pattern.
本文采用边界元法研究了有限或无限深自由水面上以脉动方式振动的球的声辐射问题。利用半空间格林函数引入了自由曲面的作用。利用改进的亥姆霍兹积分方程(HIE)计算了球在自由表面上以脉动方式振动时的声辐射。利用两种不同形式的积分和“虚拟”边界元计算HIE的自由项。此外,为了模拟有限深度流体介质,采用链像源法推导了波导格林函数。为了证明该方法的适用性,将计算得到的声压与有限元法和解析计算得到的声压进行了比较。此外,还研究了无限深水条件下潜水深度和振动频率对声辐射的影响,以及有限水深条件下水深和场点距离对声辐射的影响。计算结果表明,边界元法、有限元法与解析解吻合较好。此外,还观察到场点距离对波导格林函数的收敛行为有显著影响。此外,潜水深度、区域深度和振动频率对辐射压力幅值和压力场分布有显著影响。
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引用次数: 0
Probabilistic operability and greenhouse gas assessment during dynamic positioning operations 动态定位过程中的概率可操作性和温室气体评估
4区 工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, MARINE Pub Date : 2023-10-31 DOI: 10.1177/14750902231203441
Camilla Fruzzetti, Silvia Donnarumma, Francesca Maggiani, Michele Martelli
A Dynamic Positioning system automatically maintains both the position and heading of a vessel by using its thrusters in the presence of external disturbances. This goal is ensured by a controller that compensates for the environmental disturbances and computes the proper set-points for each actuator. The core of such a system is composed of force and thrust allocation modules that tailor the required forces and moment over the available actuators. The propulsion systems used are often over-actuated and the thrust allocation algorithm implies an infinite number of solutions since it is impossible to solve analytically the problem. Over the years efforts from the research community dealt with the optimization in terms of accuracy, energy consumption, and maintenance with innovative allocation strategies were investigated. However, no publications or rules indicate the procedure for the evaluation of exhaust gas emission during dynamic positioning operations. For such a reason, the paper aims to develop an optimization procedure that includes an ad-hoc objective function with relative non-linear constraints for the thrust allocation logic that tends to minimize the actuators’ thrust. The procedure accounts for non-linear hydrodynamic effects on the thrust generation, including thruster-thruster and thruster-hull interactions, to obtain the most realistic results as possible. Moreover, following the IMO suggestions, the production of greenhouses gases emissions is evaluated in probabilistic terms. The proposed approach provides indicators in terms of yearly operability, fuel consumption, and environmental footprint during dynamic positioning operations that could be used for proper decisions in ship deployment.
动态定位系统通过在存在外部干扰的情况下使用其推进器自动保持船舶的位置和航向。这一目标是由一个控制器来保证的,该控制器补偿环境干扰并计算每个执行器的适当设定点。这种系统的核心是由力和推力分配模块组成的,这些模块可以在可用的执行器上定制所需的力和力矩。所使用的推进系统往往是过度驱动的,推力分配算法意味着无穷多的解决方案,因为不可能解析解决这个问题。多年来,研究界致力于通过创新的分配策略在精度、能耗和维护方面进行优化。然而,尚无出版物或规则规定动态定位作业过程中废气排放的评估程序。因此,本文旨在开发一种优化程序,该程序包括一个具有相对非线性约束的特设目标函数,用于推力分配逻辑,趋于最小化执行器的推力。该程序考虑了非线性水动力对推力产生的影响,包括推力器-推力器和推力器-船体的相互作用,以获得尽可能真实的结果。此外,根据国际海事组织的建议,温室气体排放的产生以概率方式进行评估。该方法提供了动态定位操作期间的年度可操作性、燃料消耗和环境足迹指标,可用于船舶部署的正确决策。
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引用次数: 0
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Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part M: Journal of Engineering for the Maritime Environment
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