This study analyses the exchange rate regimes and stabilization programs applied by Turkey in the last two decades.Through these analyses, some important points, widely debated in the literature, are questioned. Three important conclusions, which are consistent with the general consensus in the previous literature, are reached; (1) Disparities in the values of the economic factors, namely exchange rate, inflation and interest rates, are very dangerous and disturbs the balance of the economy and makes it vulnerable to economic crisis, (2) even though the choice of the exchange rate regime is very important, it is not the only factor that leads to economic crisis, and finally (3) each exchange rate regime has advantages and disadvantages compared to others, so it is hard to conclude that one is more appropriate than others for an economy.
{"title":"The Effects of Exchange Rate Regime Choice on Economic Performance: The Case of Turkey","authors":"Cenktan Ozyildirim, Alovsat Muslumov","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2097493","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2097493","url":null,"abstract":"This study analyses the exchange rate regimes and stabilization programs applied by Turkey in the last two decades.Through these analyses, some important points, widely debated in the literature, are questioned. Three important conclusions, which are consistent with the general consensus in the previous literature, are reached; (1) Disparities in the values of the economic factors, namely exchange rate, inflation and interest rates, are very dangerous and disturbs the balance of the economy and makes it vulnerable to economic crisis, (2) even though the choice of the exchange rate regime is very important, it is not the only factor that leads to economic crisis, and finally (3) each exchange rate regime has advantages and disadvantages compared to others, so it is hard to conclude that one is more appropriate than others for an economy.","PeriodicalId":20949,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Exchange Rates & Currency (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-07-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84467040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper analyses an asymmetric effect of exchange rate change to the unit price of export and import indices and domestic price. Using regressions and impulse response analyses, I found that obvious asymmetric effects exist in most of the relevant variables. In other words, the decrease of unit price of export and import and the increase of the producers' price index are more significant when the Korean won depreciates. From a policy perspective, it should be considered that the continuing depreciation of the won may cause a burdensome inflationary pressure instead of boosting up exports by strengthening price competitiveness.
{"title":"원貨환율 변동효과의 비대칭성 분석 (Asymmetric Effects of Won Exchange Rate Changes)","authors":"Seungho Lee","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3079305","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3079305","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyses an asymmetric effect of exchange rate change to the unit price of export and import indices and domestic price. Using regressions and impulse response analyses, I found that obvious asymmetric effects exist in most of the relevant variables. In other words, the decrease of unit price of export and import and the increase of the producers' price index are more significant when the Korean won depreciates. From a policy perspective, it should be considered that the continuing depreciation of the won may cause a burdensome inflationary pressure instead of boosting up exports by strengthening price competitiveness.","PeriodicalId":20949,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Exchange Rates & Currency (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79880633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper develops a demographic model of the currency population by examining the birth and death rates of specific denominations of currency. This framework permits empirical estimation of the average lifetime of notes in circulation and hence the currency velocity (turnovers per year) of each denomination. The velocity of currency times the stock of currency produces estimates of the annual volume of cash payments. Since the volume of check payments (debits to checkable accounts) is regularly recorded, our estimates of cash payments can be used to estimate the total volume of transactions (MV) from the payment side of Fisher’s equation of exchange. The paper goes on to examine the “currency enigma” from the perspective of both “missing currency” and “missing payments”. The estimated volume of cash payments is so high when compared to personal consumption expenditures, that one is led to the conclusion that a large fraction of the US currency supply is held abroad, and that there is a sizable underground (unreported and perhaps unrecorded) economy in the United States.
{"title":"Currency Velocity and Cash Payments in the US Economy: The Currency Enigma","authors":"E. Feige","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2728453","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2728453","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops a demographic model of the currency population by examining the birth and death rates of specific denominations of currency. This framework permits empirical estimation of the average lifetime of notes in circulation and hence the currency velocity (turnovers per year) of each denomination. The velocity of currency times the stock of currency produces estimates of the annual volume of cash payments. Since the volume of check payments (debits to checkable accounts) is regularly recorded, our estimates of cash payments can be used to estimate the total volume of transactions (MV) from the payment side of Fisher’s equation of exchange. The paper goes on to examine the “currency enigma” from the perspective of both “missing currency” and “missing payments”. The estimated volume of cash payments is so high when compared to personal consumption expenditures, that one is led to the conclusion that a large fraction of the US currency supply is held abroad, and that there is a sizable underground (unreported and perhaps unrecorded) economy in the United States.","PeriodicalId":20949,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Exchange Rates & Currency (Comparative) (Topic)","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1989-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87070765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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