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Did FinTech Lenders Facilitate PPP Fraud? 金融科技贷款机构助长了PPP欺诈吗?
Pub Date : 2021-10-27 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3906395
J. Griffin, Samuel Kruger, Prateek Mahajan
In the distribution of the Paycheck Protection Program’s (PPP) $803 billion in funds, FinTech lenders began minimally but ramped up their market share to over 80% of originated loans by the end of the program. We examine metrics related to potential misreporting including non-registered businesses, multiple businesses at residential addresses, abnormally high implied compensation per employee, and large inconsistencies in jobs reported with another government program. We assess these four metrics with five additional measures and extensive supporting analysis. FinTech loans exhibit sharp and discontinuous increases in misreporting at maximum loan thresholds and round loan amounts. FinTech loans are more than 3.5 times as likely to be initiated by someone with a criminal background, strongly cluster in industry-county pairs to a degree that is infeasible based on U.S. Census data on establishment counts, and frequently exhibit similar loan features within lender-county pairs. Certain FinTech lenders seem to specialize in questionable loans with more than 40% of their loans experiencing at least one misreporting indicator. Few of these loans have been prosecuted by authorities or repaid. FinTech lenders with the highest misreporting in the first two rounds of the program in 2020 increase both their market share and their misreporting substantially in the third round in 2021. While FinTech lenders likely expand PPP access, this may come at the cost of facilitating fraudulent credit.
在工资保障计划(PPP) 8030亿美元资金的分配中,金融科技贷款机构开始时的市场份额很低,但到计划结束时,它们的市场份额上升到80%以上。我们研究了与潜在的误报相关的指标,包括未注册的企业、居住地址的多家企业、每位员工的隐含薪酬异常高,以及与另一个政府项目报告的就业岗位存在很大的不一致。我们评估这四个指标与五个额外的措施和广泛的支持分析。金融科技贷款在最高贷款门槛和贷款金额上的误报表现出急剧和不连续的增长。金融科技贷款由有犯罪背景的人发起的可能性是前者的3.5倍以上,在某种程度上,产业-县对强烈聚集在一起,这是根据美国人口普查局关于企业数量的数据不可行的,并且在贷款人-县对中经常表现出类似的贷款特征。某些金融科技贷款机构似乎专门从事有问题的贷款,超过40%的贷款至少存在一项误报指标。这些贷款很少被当局起诉或偿还。在2020年前两轮计划中报错率最高的金融科技贷款机构,在2021年的第三轮中,其市场份额和报错率都大幅增加。虽然金融科技贷款机构可能会扩大PPP接入,但这可能会以促进欺诈性信贷为代价。
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引用次数: 37
Financial Reform and Public Good Provision: Municipal Bankruptcy Law and the Financing of Hospitals 金融改革与公共产品供应:市破产法与医院融资
Pub Date : 2021-10-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2698665
Stefano Rossi, Hayong Yun
Does financial reform improve public good provision? We examine state-level adoption of municipal bankruptcy law. After reform, municipalities’ borrowing costs decrease and bonds’ issuance increase, particularly for bonds financing hospitals; hospitals’ investments increase, particularly when using such bonds; local firms’ investment and performance increase, particularly in the construction sector. Ex ante, reform occurs earlier in states with weaker unions, stronger bondholders’ interests, and better courts. Similar factors explain congressional voting on municipal bankruptcy law. These results support the hypothesis that financial reform destroys labor union rents and expands investment, highlighting a novel spillover channel from public finance to the real economy. This paper was accepted by Victoria Ivashina, finance. Funding: This work was supported by the Baffi-CAREFIN Research Center at Bocconi. Supplemental Material: The data files and online appendix are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4800 .
金融改革改善了公共产品供应吗?我们考察了州一级对市破产法的采用。改革后,市政当局借贷成本下降,债券发行增加,特别是债券融资医院;医院的投资增加了,特别是在使用这种债券时;当地公司的投资和业绩增加,特别是在建筑行业。在此之前,在工会较弱、债券持有人利益较强、法院较好的州,改革发生得较早。类似的因素也解释了国会对市政破产法的投票。这些结果支持了金融改革破坏工会租金并扩大投资的假设,突出了公共财政向实体经济溢出的新渠道。这篇论文被财经的Victoria Ivashina接受。本研究由Bocconi的Baffi-CAREFIN研究中心支持。补充材料:数据文件和在线附录可在https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4800上获得。
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引用次数: 2
Anti-Discrimination Insurance Pricing: Regulations, Fairness Criteria, and Models 反歧视保险定价:法规、公平标准和模型
Pub Date : 2021-10-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3850420
Xin Xin, Fei Huang
On the issue of insurance discrimination, a grey area in regulation has resulted from the growing use of big data analytics by insurance companies – direct discrimination is prohibited, but indirect discrimination using proxies or more complex and opaque algorithms can be tolerated without restrictions. Meanwhile, various fairness criteria have been proposed and flourish in the machine learning literature with the rapid growth of artificial intelligence (AI) in the past decade, which generally focus on a classification decision. However, there is little research on insurance applications, particularly on insurance pricing as a regression problem. In this paper, we summarise the fairness criteria that are potentially applicable to insurance pricing, match them with different levels of anti-discrimination regulations, and implement them into a series of existing and newly proposed anti-discrimination insurance pricing models. Our empirical analysis compares the outcome of different models and shows the potential of indirect discrimination.
在保险歧视问题上,由于保险公司越来越多地使用大数据分析,监管出现了一个灰色地带——禁止直接歧视,但可以不受限制地容忍使用代理或更复杂、更不透明的算法的间接歧视。与此同时,随着人工智能(AI)在过去十年的快速发展,各种公平标准在机器学习文献中被提出并蓬勃发展,这些标准通常集中在分类决策上。然而,对保险应用的研究很少,特别是对保险定价作为回归问题的研究较少。本文总结了可能适用于保险定价的公平标准,将其与不同级别的反歧视法规进行匹配,并将其应用于一系列现有和新提出的反歧视保险定价模型中。我们的实证分析比较了不同模型的结果,并显示了间接歧视的潜力。
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引用次数: 5
How Do Acquisitions Affect the Mental Health of Employees? 收购如何影响员工的心理健康?
Pub Date : 2021-10-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3940462
L. Bach, Ramin P. Baghai, M. Bos, Rui C. Silva
Using employer-employee level data linked to individual health records, we document that the incidence of stress, anxiety, depression, psychiatric medication usage, and even suicide increase following acquisitions. These effects are prevalent among employees from both targets and acquirers, in weak as well as in growing, profitable firms. Employees who experience negative career developments within the merging firms, 'blue-collar' workers, and employees with lower cognitive and non-cognitive skills are most affected. A variety of tests address endogeneity concerns, including an analysis exploiting failed mergers. Our findings point to mental illness as a significant non-pecuniary cost of acquisitions.
利用与个人健康记录相关的雇主-雇员水平数据,我们记录了压力、焦虑、抑郁、精神药物使用甚至自杀的发生率在收购后增加。这些影响在目标公司和收购公司的员工中都很普遍,无论是在弱势公司还是在成长型盈利公司。在合并公司中经历负面职业发展的员工、“蓝领”工人以及认知和非认知技能较低的员工受到的影响最大。各种测试解决内生性问题,包括利用失败合并的分析。我们的研究结果表明,精神疾病是一项重要的非金钱成本。
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引用次数: 3
The Unintended Benefits of Increased Disclosure Frequency: Evidence from the Brokerage House Industry 增加披露频率的意外收益:来自经纪业的证据
Pub Date : 2021-10-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3935185
Yan Hu, Xiaoxi Li, Wei Shi
Using a plausibly exogenous shock to performance disclosure frequency by listed brokerage houses in China, we examine the impact of disclosure frequency on the quality of information production. Difference-in-difference estimation shows that analysts affiliated with listed brokerage houses exhibit lower forecast optimism in the post-regulation period, compared to their unlisted peers. Cross-sectional analyses suggest that the effect is more pronounced when the listed brokerage houses’ business relies less on their clients, when analysts have greater career concern, and when the covered firms exhibit lower valuation uncertainty/difficulty. Additional analysis indicates that forecast revisions by analysts affiliated with a listed brokerage house are more informative after the shock. Moreover, we find that analysts affiliated with listed brokerage houses issue more accurate and frequent forecasts and cover more companies than their peers do, which suggests that information production improves as a result of increased competition. Overall, our evidence suggests that increased performance disclosure by information intermediaries has positive externalities.
通过对中国上市证券公司业绩披露频率的似是而非的外生冲击,我们检验了披露频率对信息生产质量的影响。差中差估计显示,与非上市同行相比,上市券商分析师在后监管时期的预测乐观度较低。横断面分析表明,当上市经纪公司的业务对客户的依赖程度较低、分析师对职业生涯的关注程度较高、所涵盖公司的估值不确定性/难度较低时,这种影响更为明显。另一项分析表明,上市经纪公司的分析师在冲击过后对预测的修正更具信息性。此外,我们发现,与同行相比,隶属于上市经纪公司的分析师发布的预测更准确、更频繁,覆盖的公司也更多,这表明竞争加剧导致了信息生产的改善。总体而言,我们的证据表明,信息中介机构绩效披露的增加具有正外部性。
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引用次数: 0
Concentration and Geographic Proximity in Antitrust Policy: Evidence from Bank Mergers 反垄断政策中的集中度和地理邻近性:来自银行合并的证据
Pub Date : 2021-09-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3873502
David Benson, Samuel Blattner, Serafin Grundl, You Suk Kim, Ken Onishi
Market concentration (HHI) based antitrust policy can be vulnerable to mismeasurement of substitutability. We provide evidence demonstrating this vulnerability in the banking industry, and argue that HHI-based bank antitrust review can be improved by incorporating a determinant of substitutability between merging banks: the proximity of their branch networks. Using difference-in-differences to estimate the effects of bank mergers, we find that mergers of close-proximity banks lead to more branch closures and to repositioning that is less beneficial for consumer access. Moreover, although rivals offer worse interest rates (prices) after close-proximity mergers, the merging parties' deposit growth (quantity) declines. These results hold for transactions that evade HHI-based enforcement criteria. Our findings also inform antitrust policy for other industries where firms’ locations are an important and observable determinant of substitutability.
基于市场集中度(HHI)的反垄断政策可能容易受到可替代性测量错误的影响。我们提供了证明银行业存在这种脆弱性的证据,并认为基于hhi的银行反垄断审查可以通过纳入合并银行之间可替代性的决定因素来改进:其分支网络的接近性。利用差异中的差异来估计银行合并的影响,我们发现,距离较近的银行合并导致更多的分支机构关闭,并导致对消费者准入不利的重新定位。此外,尽管竞争对手在近距离合并后提供更低的利率(价格),但合并方的存款增长(数量)下降。这些结果适用于逃避基于hhi的执行标准的交易。我们的研究结果也为其他行业的反垄断政策提供了参考,在这些行业中,企业的所在地是可替代性的重要和可观察的决定因素。
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引用次数: 2
Does the Value-at-Risk legal framework lead to inaccurate and procyclical risk estimations? Empirical Evidence from the EU countries. 风险价值法律框架是否会导致不准确和顺周期的风险估计?来自欧盟国家的经验证据。
Pub Date : 2021-09-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3926785
Evangelos Vasileiou, Theodore Syriopoulos, P. Vlachou, M. Tsatsaronis, Angeliki Papaprokopiou
This analysis tests whether the quantitative requirements of the law (Basel and Committee of European Securities Regulators) regarding the Value at Risk (VaR) framework may lead to inaccurate and procyclical VaR estimations. We apply two of the most popular VaR models, the Historical (HVaR) and the Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA VaR) models, to a wide sample of 13 European Indices during the period 2002-2019. The empirical evidence confirms our assumptions that the legal framework in many cases leads to inaccurate and procyclical VaR estimations. Moreover, we show that the limitation on the required data inputs does not really contribute to a more stable financial environment. Further, we show that the current framework does not examine the procyclicality issue. The evidence in this study shows that the current legal framework needs some reforms: (a) the guideline on the minimum number of data inputs for the VaR estimations should be removed, taking provided that the accuracy of the applied VaR model is often evaluated, and (b) the current backtesting procedure does not examine whether VaR estimations are representative of the financial conditions. An additional backtesting procedure at a lower that the 99% confidence level could resolve this issue.
本分析测试法律(巴塞尔和欧洲证券监管委员会)关于风险价值(VaR)框架的定量要求是否可能导致不准确和顺周期的VaR估计。我们将两种最流行的VaR模型,历史(HVaR)和指数加权移动平均(EWMA VaR)模型应用于2002-2019年期间13个欧洲指数的广泛样本。经验证据证实了我们的假设,即法律框架在许多情况下导致不准确和顺周期的VaR估计。此外,我们表明,对所需数据输入的限制并不真正有助于更稳定的金融环境。此外,我们表明,目前的框架没有检查顺周期性问题。本研究中的证据表明,当前的法律框架需要进行一些改革:(a)如果经常评估所应用的VaR模型的准确性,则应删除关于VaR估计的最小数据输入数量的指导方针,以及(b)当前的回测程序没有检查VaR估计是否代表财务状况。在低于99%置信水平的额外回测程序可以解决此问题。
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引用次数: 0
A European DLT Pilot Regime for Market Infrastructures: Finding a Balance Between Innovation, Investor Protection, and Financial Stability 欧洲DLT市场基础设施试点制度:在创新、投资者保护和金融稳定之间找到平衡
Pub Date : 2021-09-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3919484
Randy Priem
This article discusses the European Commission’s proposal for a pilot regime for market infrastructures to experiment with the distributed ledger technology (DLT). In this respect, the article comments on the purpose, scope, requirements, and attention points for market operators, investment firms, and central securities depositories (CSDs) that are considering using this technology.The proposed requirements aim to provide legal certainty, ensure investor protection, support innovation, and protect financial stability. The European Commission attempt to reach these goals by establishing uniform requirements for DLT market infrastructures. This article advocates, however, that a level playing field between the various market participants using the technology should be warranted.
本文讨论了欧盟委员会关于市场基础设施试点制度的建议,以试验分布式账本技术(DLT)。在这方面,本文对正在考虑使用该技术的市场运营商、投资公司和中央证券存管机构(CSDs)的目的、范围、要求和注意事项进行了评论。拟议的要求旨在提供法律确定性,确保投资者保护,支持创新,并保护金融稳定。欧盟委员会试图通过为DLT市场基础设施建立统一的要求来实现这些目标。然而,本文提倡在使用该技术的各种市场参与者之间建立一个公平的竞争环境。
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引用次数: 0
Banking-Crisis Interventions, 1257 - 2019 银行危机干预,1257 - 2019
Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3919264
Andrew Metrick, Paul Schmelzing
We present a new database of banking-crisis interventions since the 13th century. The database includes 1886 interventions in 20 categories across 138 countries, covering interventions during all of the crises identified in the main banking-crisis chronologies, while also cataloguing a large number of interventions outside of those crises. The data show a gradual shift over the past centuries from the traditional interventions of a lender-of-last-resort, suspensions of convertibility, and bank holidays, towards a much more prominent role for capital injections and sweeping guarantees of bank liabilities. Furthermore, intervention frequencies and sizes suggest that the crisis problem in the financial sector has indeed reached an apex during the post-Bretton Woods era – but that such trends are part of a more deeply entrenched development that saw global intervention frequencies and sizes gradually rise since at least the late 17th century.
我们提出了一个自13世纪以来银行危机干预的新数据库。该数据库包括138个国家的20个类别的1886项干预措施,涵盖了主要银行危机年表中确定的所有危机期间的干预措施,同时也对这些危机之外的大量干预措施进行了编目。数据显示,在过去几个世纪里,传统的最后贷款人干预、暂停可兑换性和银行假日逐渐转向更为突出的注资和对银行负债的全面担保。此外,干预的频率和规模表明,金融部门的危机问题在后布雷顿森林时代确实达到了顶点——但这种趋势是一种更为根深蒂固的发展的一部分,即至少自17世纪后期以来,全球干预的频率和规模逐渐上升。
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引用次数: 0
Racial Disparities in the Paycheck Protection Program 工资保护计划中的种族差异
Pub Date : 2021-08-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3907575
S. Chernenko, D. Scharfstein
Using a large sample of Florida restaurants, we document significant racial disparities in the utilization of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). Only a small fraction of these disparities can be explained by distance to bank branches. Within the same ZIP code, Black- and Hispanic-owned firms are 20.5% and 7.0% less likely than white-owned firms to receive PPP loans. These disparities in PPP utilization are driven by disparities in bank lending, which are greater in counties in which white people exhibit more racial bias against Black people. In these more racially biased counties, Black-owned businesses substitute to nonbank PPP loans and loans provided directly by the Small Business Administration through its Economic Injury Disaster Loan program.
通过对佛罗里达州餐馆的大量抽样调查,我们发现在工资保障计划(PPP)的使用上存在显著的种族差异。这些差异中只有一小部分可以用与银行网点的距离来解释。在相同的邮政编码内,黑人和西班牙裔拥有的公司获得PPP贷款的可能性比白人拥有的公司低20.5%和7.0%。这些购买力平价利用的差异是由银行贷款的差异造成的,在白人对黑人表现出更多种族偏见的县,银行贷款的差异更大。在这些种族偏见更严重的县,黑人拥有的企业取代了非银行PPP贷款和小企业管理局通过其经济损失灾难贷款计划直接提供的贷款。
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引用次数: 24
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Regulation of Financial Institutions eJournal
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