OBJECTIVE
To determine whether serum estradiol (E2) measured before, progesterone (P) initiation influences ongoing pregnancy rate (OPR) in hormone-replacement frozen-blastocyst transfer (HRT-FET) cycles.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Retrospective cohort of the first HRT-FET cycles performed between January 2022 and March 2025 at a single IVF center. Women received oral estradiol valerate 6 mg/day for 9–18 days; serum E2 was sampled before P initiation. Embryo transfer (ET) was scheduled for day 6 of P exposure. PGT cycles were excluded. OPR was defined as the presence of fetal cardiac activity. Pregnancy loss was defined as β-hCG >5 IU/L without ongoing pregnancy. Logistic regression estimated adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for OPR, controlling for age, body mass index (BMI), parity, number and grade of blastocysts transferred, and serum P4 measured on or one day prior to ET. Continuous E2 effects were modelled per 100 pg/mL increment.
RESULTS
A total of 209 women were included (median female age 32 years; median BMI 24.74 kg/m²). Serum E2 levels were divided into quartiles (Table 1). Crude OPR numerically increased across ascending quartiles but did not reach statistical significance (Table 1). After adjusting for confounders, the highest versus lowest E2 quartile remained non-significant (aOR 1.93 [0.78–4.74]; p = 0.153). Multivariate continuous modeling demonstrated a borderline significant positive association between serum E2 and OPR (aOR 1.33 [1.00–1.75]; p = 0.047). In contrast, higher serum E2 tended to be associated with a lower risk of pregnancy loss, although this association was not statistically significant (aOR 0.69 [0.45–1.07]; p = 0.094). Higher ET-day serum P4 (aOR 1.06 per +10 ng/mL; p = 0.002) and poor blastocyst grade (aOR 0.19 [0.06–0.55] compared to excellent grade) were independently associated with OPR, whereas female age, BMI, parity, and number of embryos transferred were not.
CONCLUSIONS
In HRT-FET cycles, serum E2 measured immediately before P initiation does not appear to be a robust determinant of ongoing pregnancy when analysed categorically and demonstrates only a borderline linear association after full adjustment. These findings suggest that moderate fluctuations in E2 levels before P initiation may have limited clinical relevance when luteal P administration and embryo quality are optimized.
IMPACT STATEMENT
Routine measurement of E2 immediately before P initiation appears to provide limited benefit in HRT-FET cycles, and its omission is unlikely to substantially impact reproductive outcomes.
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