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The Contribution of Vocational Education and Training to Innovation and Growth 职业教育与培训对创新与成长的贡献
Pub Date : 2021-05-26 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.653
U. Backes-Gellner, Patrick Lehnert
Despite the common view that innovation requires academically educated workers, some countries that strongly emphasize vocational education and training (VET) in their education systems—such as Switzerland and Germany—are highly competitive internationally in terms of innovation. These countries have dual VET programs, that is, upper-secondary-level apprenticeship programs, that combine about three quarters of workplace training with about one quarter of vocational schooling, and design them in such a way that their graduates (i.e., dual apprenticeship-graduates) play crucial roles in innovation processes. Regular updates of VET curricula incorporate the latest technological developments into these curricula, thereby ensuring that dual apprenticeship-graduates possess up-to-date, high-level skills in their chosen occupation. This process allows these graduates to contribute to innovation in firms. Moreover, these graduates acquire broad sets of technical and soft skills that enhance their job mobility and flexibility. Therefore, conventional wisdom notwithstanding, dual apprenticeship-graduates in such countries not only have broad skill sets that accelerate innovation in firms, but also willingly participate in innovation because of their high flexibility and employability. Moreover, Switzerland and Germany have tertiary-level VET institutions that foster innovation. These are universities of applied sciences (UASs), which teach and conduct applied research, thereby helping build a bridge between different types of knowledge (vocational and academic). UAS students have prior vocational knowledge through their dual apprenticeship and acquire applied research skills from UAS professors who usually have both work experience and a doctoral degree from an academic university. Thus UAS graduates combine sound occupational knowledge with applied research knowledge inspired by input from the academic research frontier and from practical research and development (R & D) in firms. Firms employ UAS graduates with their knowledge combination as an important input for R & D. Consequently, regions with a UAS have higher levels of innovation than regions without one. This effect is particularly strong for regions outside major innovation centers and for regions with larger percentages of smaller firms.
尽管人们普遍认为创新需要受过学术教育的工人,但一些在其教育体系中非常强调职业教育和培训(VET)的国家,如瑞士和德国,在创新方面具有很强的国际竞争力。这些国家实行双重职业教育培训计划,即高中水平的学徒计划,将约四分之三的工作场所培训与约四分之一的职业教育相结合,并以这样一种方式设计这些计划,使其毕业生(即双重学徒毕业生)在创新过程中发挥关键作用。定期更新职业教育培训课程,将最新的技术发展纳入这些课程,从而确保双学徒制毕业生在他们选择的职业中拥有最新的高水平技能。这一过程使这些毕业生能够为公司的创新做出贡献。此外,这些毕业生获得了广泛的技术和软技能,提高了他们的工作流动性和灵活性。因此,尽管传统观点认为,这些国家的双学徒制毕业生不仅拥有加速企业创新的广泛技能,而且由于其高度的灵活性和就业能力,他们也愿意参与创新。此外,瑞士和德国都有促进创新的高等教育职业教育机构。这些大学是应用科学大学(UASs),教授和开展应用研究,从而帮助在不同类型的知识(职业和学术)之间建立桥梁。UAS学生通过双学徒制获得先验的职业知识,并从UAS教授那里获得应用研究技能,这些教授通常既有工作经验,又有学术大学的博士学位。因此,UAS毕业生将良好的职业知识与应用研究知识相结合,这些知识的灵感来自学术研究前沿和公司的实际研究与开发(R & D)。企业雇用的UAS毕业生,他们的知识组合作为研发的重要投入,因此,有UAS的地区比没有UAS的地区具有更高的创新水平。这种影响在主要创新中心以外的地区和小企业比例较高的地区尤为明显。
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引用次数: 2
International Capital Flows 国际资本流动
Pub Date : 2021-04-26 DOI: 10.1093/ACREFORE/9780190625979.013.638
Yanshuo Chen, G. Hale
International capital flows have challenged economists’ models for decades. They exhibit a number of patterns that standard economic theories have struggled to explain. Over time, global capital flows go through boom and bust cycles, sudden stops, and unprecedented bonanzas. Determinants of capital flows include “pull factors,” recipient countries’ economic and structural characteristics, and “push factors” or “global factors,” which mostly depend on the global financial cycle and U.S. monetary policy. The relative importance of global factors has increased since the early 2000s. The rise in international capital flows that has accompanied the wave of globalization in the early 21st century has helped to deliver crucial capital resources that facilitated development of many economies and helped transmit technologies across borders. On the flip side, international capital flows also increased transmission of financial shocks and policy changes across countries, most prominently experienced during the global financial crisis of 2008–2009. On balance, is it beneficial for small open economies to allow for free capital flows? Mainstream economists’ and policymakers’ answer to this question has evolved from an unequivocal “yes” to a much more nuanced view.
几十年来,国际资本流动一直在挑战经济学家的模型。它们表现出许多标准经济理论难以解释的模式。随着时间的推移,全球资本流动经历了繁荣和萧条的周期,突然停止,以及前所未有的繁荣。资本流动的决定因素包括“拉动因素”,即接受国的经济和结构特征,以及“推动因素”或“全球因素”,这些因素主要取决于全球金融周期和美国的货币政策。自21世纪初以来,全球因素的相对重要性有所增加。21世纪初,伴随着全球化浪潮而来的国际资本流动的增加,帮助提供了关键的资本资源,促进了许多经济体的发展,并帮助技术跨境传播。另一方面,国际资本流动也增加了金融冲击和政策变化在各国之间的传导,2008-2009年全球金融危机期间的经历最为突出。总的来说,允许资本自由流动对小型开放经济体有利吗?主流经济学家和政策制定者对这个问题的回答已经从明确的“是”演变为一种微妙得多的观点。
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引用次数: 0
Charter Schools’ Effectiveness, Mechanisms, and Competitive Influence 特许学校的有效性、机制和竞争影响
Pub Date : 2021-02-01 DOI: 10.3386/W28477
Sarah R. Cohodes, Katharine S. Parham
Across the United States, charter schools—publicly funded and regulated, but privately run schools—appear to perform, on average, at about the same level as their district counterparts. The broadest studies of charter school effectiveness use observational methods, which may not fully account for selection of students into charter schools. However, this finding is confirmed by lottery-based evidence from a few broad samples that again presents a varied picture of charter impact and little average difference across sectors. Underlying the similarity in performance across sectors is one of the most consistent findings from both observational and lottery-based evidence of charter schools’ impact on student achievement: Charters located in urban areas boost student test scores, particularly for Black, Latinx, and students from lower-income households. The test score gains appear to be largest in urban charters that employ “No Excuses” practices. Attending some urban charter schools also increases college enrollment and voting and reduces risky behavior. However, evidence on such long-term outcomes is limited to a few samples, and evidence on college graduation and adult earnings is even rarer, making it difficult to draw conclusions beyond test scores about the overall effectiveness of the charter sector. Research on the mechanisms underlying charter successes, when they occur, is growing. No Excuses charter schools—which employ high expectations, strict disciplinary codes, and intense academic focus—generate consistent test score gains, but their controversial disciplinary practices are not necessarily a condition for academic success. Charter school teachers tend to be less qualified and more likely to leave the profession than traditional public school teachers, though the impact of these challenges for the labor market is understudied. Similarly, the influence of charter authorizers and related accountability structures is limited and would benefit from examination using more rigorous methodologies. The competitive impact of charter schools on traditional public schools typically suggests a small, beneficial influence on neighboring schools’ student achievement, though there is variation across contexts. Additionally, while some local analyses suggest charters reduce funding in nearby districts, at least in the short term, a larger scale study finds charter entry generates more revenue per pupil for district schools. There is competing evidence on charters’ contribution to school racial segregation, and little evidence on the impact of newer, intentionally diverse school models. In all, more research, in more contexts, is needed to further understand where, for whom, and why charters are most effective.
在整个美国,特许学校——由政府资助和管理,但由私人经营的学校——的平均表现似乎与地区学校差不多。对特许学校有效性的最广泛的研究使用的是观察方法,这可能不能完全考虑到选择学生进入特许学校的情况。然而,这一发现得到了来自几个广泛样本的基于彩票的证据的证实,这些样本再次呈现出包机影响的不同图景,各行业之间的平均差异很小。跨部门表现的相似性背后,是特许学校对学生成绩影响的观察和基于彩票的证据中最一致的发现之一:位于城市地区的特许学校提高了学生的考试成绩,尤其是黑人、拉丁裔和来自低收入家庭的学生。在采用“无借口”做法的城市特许学校,考试成绩的提高似乎最大。参加一些城市特许学校也增加了大学入学率和投票率,减少了危险行为。然而,这种长期结果的证据仅限于少数样本,而关于大学毕业和成人收入的证据就更少了,这使得除了考试成绩之外,很难得出关于特许教育部门整体有效性的结论。当特许经营成功时,对其背后机制的研究正在增加。特许学校——这些学校有着很高的期望、严格的纪律规范和高度的学术关注——产生了持续的考试成绩提高,但它们有争议的纪律实践并不一定是学业成功的条件。与传统公立学校的教师相比,特许学校的教师往往资历较低,更有可能离开这个行业,尽管这些挑战对劳动力市场的影响尚未得到充分研究。同样,特许经办人和有关责任制结构的影响是有限的,如果采用更严格的方法进行审查,将会受益。特许学校对传统公立学校的竞争影响通常意味着对邻近学校学生成绩的小而有益的影响,尽管在不同的背景下存在差异。此外,虽然一些地方分析认为,特许学校至少在短期内减少了附近地区的资金,但一项更大规模的研究发现,特许学校的入学为地区学校的每个学生带来了更多的收入。关于特许学校对学校种族隔离的影响存在相互矛盾的证据,而关于更新的、有意多样化的学校模式的影响的证据却很少。总之,需要在更多的背景下进行更多的研究,以进一步了解宪章在哪里、对谁、以及为什么最有效。
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引用次数: 18
China’s Housing Policy and Housing Boom and Their Macroeconomic Impacts 中国住房政策与房地产繁荣及其宏观经济影响
Pub Date : 2020-12-17 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.591
Kaiji Chen
The house price boom that has been present in most Chinese cities since the early 2000s has triggered substantial interest in the role that China’s housing policy plays in its housing market and macroeconomy, with an extensive literature employing both empirical and theoretical perspectives developed over the past decade. This research finds that the privatization of China’s housing market, which encouraged households living in state-owned housing to purchase their homes at prices far below their market value, contributed to a rapid increase in homeownership beginning in the mid-1990s. Housing market privatization also has led to a significant increase in both housing and nonhousing consumption, but these benefits are unevenly distributed across households. With the policy goal of making homeownership affordable for the average household, the Housing Provident Fund contributes positively to homeownership rates. By contrast, the effectiveness of housing policies to make housing affordable for low-income households has been weaker in recent years. Moreover, a large body of empirical research shows that the unintended consequences of housing market privatization have been a persistent increase in housing prices since the early 2000s, which has been accompanied by soaring land prices, high vacancy rates, and high price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios. The literature has differing views regarding the sustainability of China’s housing boom. On a theoretical front, economists find that rising housing demand, due to both consumption and investment purposes, is important to understanding China’s prolonged housing boom, and that land-use policy, which influences the supply side of the housing market, lies at the center of China’s housing boom. However, regulatory policies, such as housing purchase restrictions and property taxes, have had mixed effects on the housing market in different cities. In addition to China’s housing policy and its direct effects on the nation’s housing market, research finds that China’s housing policy impacts its macroeconomy via the transmission of house price dynamics into the household and corporate sectors. High housing prices have a heterogenous impact on the consumption and savings of different types of households but tend to discourage household labor supply. Meanwhile, rising house prices encourage housing investment by non–real-estate firms, which crowds out nonhousing investment, lowers the availability of noncollateralized business loans, and reduces productive efficiency via the misallocation of capital and managerial talent.
自21世纪初以来,中国大多数城市的房价飙升引发了人们对中国住房政策在其住房市场和宏观经济中所起作用的浓厚兴趣,在过去十年中,大量文献采用了实证和理论视角。这项研究发现,中国住房市场的私有化,鼓励居住在国有住房的家庭以远低于市场价值的价格购买住房,促成了自20世纪90年代中期以来住房拥有率的快速增长。住房市场私有化也导致了住房和非住房消费的显著增加,但这些好处在家庭之间的分配并不均匀。住房公积金的政策目标是使一般家庭都能负担得起拥有房屋,因此对房屋拥有率作出积极贡献。相比之下,近年来,使低收入家庭负担得起住房的住房政策的有效性一直较弱。此外,大量实证研究表明,自21世纪初以来,住房市场私有化的意外后果是房价持续上涨,伴随着地价飙升、高空置率、高房价收入比和高房价租金比。文献对中国房地产繁荣的可持续性有不同的看法。在理论方面,经济学家发现,由于消费和投资目的,不断上升的住房需求对于理解中国长期的房地产繁荣非常重要,而影响房地产市场供应端的土地使用政策是中国房地产繁荣的核心。然而,住房限购和房产税等监管政策对不同城市的房地产市场产生了不同的影响。除了中国的住房政策及其对全国住房市场的直接影响外,研究还发现,中国的住房政策通过将房价动态传导到家庭和企业部门来影响其宏观经济。高房价对不同类型家庭的消费和储蓄有异质影响,但往往会抑制家庭劳动力供给。与此同时,不断上涨的房价鼓励了非房地产企业的住房投资,这挤占了非住房投资,降低了非抵押商业贷款的可得性,并通过资本和管理人才的错配降低了生产效率。
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引用次数: 1
Bid-Ask Spread: Theory and Empirical Evidence 买卖价差:理论与经验证据
Pub Date : 2020-12-17 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.603
M. Nimalendran, Giovanni Petrella
The most important friction studied in the microstructure literature is the adverse selection borne by liquidity providers when facing traders who are better informed, and the bid-ask spread quoted by market makers is one of these frictions in securities markets that has been extensively studied. In the early 1980s, the transparency of U.S. stock markets was limited to post-trade end-of-day transactions prices, and there were no easily available market quotes for researchers and market participants to study the effects of bid-ask spread on the liquidity and quality of markets. This led to models that used the auto-covariance of daily transactions prices to estimate the bid-ask spread. In the early 1990s, the U.S. stock markets (NYSE/AMEX/NASDAQ) provided pre-trade quotes and transaction sizes for researchers and market participants. The increased transparency and access to quotes and trades led to the development of theoretical models and empirical methods to decompose the bid-ask spread into its components: adverse selection, inventory, and order processing. These models and methods can be broadly classified into those that use the serial covariance properties of quotes and transaction prices, and others that use a trade direction indicator and a regression approach to decompose the bid-ask spread. Covariance and trade indicator models are equivalent in structural form, but they differ in parameters’ estimation (reduced form). The basic microstructure model is composed of two equations; the first defines the law of motion of the “true” price, while the second defines the process generating transaction price. From these two equations, an appropriate relation for transaction price changes is derived in terms of observed variables. A crucial point that differentiates the two approaches is the assumption made for estimation purposes relative to the behavior of order arrival, which is the probability of order reversal or continuation. Thus, the specification of the most general models allows for including an additional parameter that accounts for order behavior. The article provides a unified framework to compare the different models with respect to the restrictions that are imposed, and how this affects the relative proportions of the different components of the spread.
微观结构文献中研究的最重要的摩擦是流动性提供者在面对消息更灵通的交易者时所承担的逆向选择,而做市商所报的买卖价差是证券市场中被广泛研究的摩擦之一。在20世纪80年代初,美国股票市场的透明度仅限于交易后的日尾交易价格,研究人员和市场参与者没有容易获得的市场报价来研究买卖价差对市场流动性和质量的影响。这导致了使用每日交易价格的自动协方差来估计买卖价差的模型。20世纪90年代初,美国股票市场(NYSE/AMEX/NASDAQ)为研究人员和市场参与者提供交易前报价和交易规模。透明度的提高以及对报价和交易的获取导致了理论模型和实证方法的发展,这些模型和实证方法将买卖价差分解为其组成部分:逆向选择、库存和订单处理。这些模型和方法可以大致分为使用报价和交易价格的序列协方差属性的模型和方法,以及使用交易方向指标和回归方法分解买卖价差的模型和方法。协方差模型和贸易指标模型在结构形式上是等价的,但在参数估计(约简形式)上有所不同。基本微观结构模型由两个方程组成;前者定义了“真实”价格的运动规律,而后者定义了产生交易价格的过程。从这两个方程中,根据观察到的变量推导出交易价格变化的适当关系。区分这两种方法的一个关键点是为估计目的而做出的假设,相对于订单到达的行为,这是订单逆转或延续的概率。因此,大多数通用模型的规范允许包括一个解释顺序行为的附加参数。本文提供了一个统一的框架,以比较不同的模型所施加的限制,以及这如何影响传播的不同组成部分的相对比例。
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引用次数: 0
New Economic Geography 新经济地理学
Pub Date : 2020-10-27 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.338
Ching-mu Chen, S. Peng
For research attempting to investigate why economic activities are distributed unevenly across geographic space, new economic geography (NEG) provides a general equilibrium-based and microfounded approach to modeling a spatial economy characterized by a large variety of economic agglomerations. NEG emphasizes how agglomeration (centripetal) and dispersion (centrifugal) forces interact to generate observed spatial configurations and uneven distributions of economic activity. However, numerous economic geographers prefer to refer to the term new economic geographies as vigorous and diversified academic outputs that are inspired by the institutional-cultural turn of economic geography. Accordingly, the term geographical economics has been suggested as an alternative to NEG. Approaches for modeling a spatial economy through the use of a general equilibrium framework have not only rendered existing concepts amenable to empirical scrutiny and policy analysis but also drawn economic geography and location theories from the periphery to the center of mainstream economic theory. Reduced-form empirical studies have attempted to test certain implications of NEG. However, due to NEG’s simplified geographic settings, the developed NEG models cannot be easily applied to observed data. The recent development of quantitative spatial models based on the mechanisms formalized by previous NEG theories has been a breakthrough in building an empirically relevant framework for implementing counterfactual policy exercises. If quantitative spatial models can connect with observed data in an empirically meaningful manner, they can enable the decomposition of key theoretical mechanisms and afford specificity in the evaluation of the general equilibrium effects of policy interventions in particular settings. Several decades since its proposal, NEG has been criticized for its parsimonious assumptions about the economy across space and time. Therefore, existing challenges still require theoretical and quantitative models on new microfoundations pertaining to the interactions between economic agents across geographical space and the relationship between geography and economic development.
对于试图调查经济活动在地理空间上分布不均的原因的研究,新经济地理学(NEG)提供了一种基于一般均衡和微观基础的方法来模拟以各种经济集聚为特征的空间经济。NEG强调集聚(向心)和分散(离心力)如何相互作用,从而产生可观察到的经济活动的空间结构和不均匀分布。然而,许多经济地理学家更喜欢将新经济地理学称为活力和多样化的学术成果,这些成果受到经济地理学制度文化转向的启发。因此,有人建议用“地理经济学”一词来代替NEG。利用一般均衡框架对空间经济进行建模的方法不仅使现有的概念适合于实证审查和政策分析,而且还将经济地理学和区位理论从主流经济理论的边缘拉到了中心。简化形式的实证研究试图测试NEG的某些含义。然而,由于NEG的地理设置简化,所开发的NEG模型不容易应用于观测数据。最近基于先前NEG理论形成的机制的定量空间模型的发展,在为实施反事实政策练习建立经验相关框架方面取得了突破。如果定量空间模型能够以有经验意义的方式与观察到的数据联系起来,它们就能够分解关键的理论机制,并在评估特定环境下政策干预的一般均衡效应时提供特异性。自其提出以来的几十年里,NEG一直因其对跨越空间和时间的经济的吝啬假设而受到批评。因此,现有的挑战仍然需要在新的微观基础上建立理论和定量模型,这些微观基础涉及跨地理空间的经济主体之间的相互作用以及地理与经济发展之间的关系。
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引用次数: 0
The Economics of Dementia 痴呆症的经济学
Pub Date : 2020-08-27 DOI: 10.1093/ACREFORE/9780190625979.013.107
S. Connolly
In the coming years, it is predicted that there will be a significant increase in the number of people living with dementia and consequently, the demand for health and social care services. Given the budget constraints facing health systems, it is anticipated that economic analysis will play an increasingly important role in informing decisions regarding the provision of services for people with dementia. However, compared with other conditions and diseases, research in dementia has been relatively limited. While in the past this may have been related to an assumption that dementia was a natural part of aging, there are features of dementia that make applying research methods particularly challenging. A number of economic methods have been applied to dementia, including cost-of-illness analysis and economic evaluation; however, methodological issues in this area persist. These include reaching a consensus on how best to measure and value informal care, how to capture the many impacts and costs of the condition as the disease progresses, and how to measure health outcomes. Addressing these existing methodological issues will help realize the potential of economic analysis in answering difficult questions around care for people with dementia.
据预测,在今后几年中,患有痴呆症的人数将大幅增加,因此,对保健和社会护理服务的需求也将大幅增加。鉴于卫生系统面临的预算限制,预计经济分析将在为痴呆症患者提供服务的决策提供信息方面发挥越来越重要的作用。然而,与其他病症和疾病相比,对痴呆症的研究相对有限。虽然在过去,这可能与痴呆症是衰老的自然组成部分的假设有关,但痴呆症的一些特征使得应用研究方法特别具有挑战性。许多经济方法已应用于痴呆症,包括疾病成本分析和经济评估;然而,这方面的方法问题仍然存在。其中包括就如何最好地衡量和评价非正式护理达成共识,如何在疾病进展过程中捕捉该病的许多影响和成本,以及如何衡量健康结果。解决这些现有的方法问题将有助于实现经济分析在回答痴呆症患者护理方面的难题方面的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
The Economics of International Wage Differentials and Migration 国际工资差异与移民经济学
Pub Date : 2020-07-30 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.353
L. Pritchett, Farah Hani
The key question for the economics of international migration is whether observed real wage differentials across countries for workers with identical intrinsic productivity represent an economic inefficiency sustained by legal barriers to labor mobility between geographies. A simple comparison of the real wages of workers with the same level of formal schooling or performing similar occupations across countries shows massive gaps between rich and poorer countries. These gaps persist after adjusting for observed and unobserved human capital characteristics, suggesting a “place premium”—or space-specific wage differentials that are not due to intrinsic worker productivity but rather are due to a misallocation of labor. If wage gaps are not due to intrinsic worker productivity, then the incentive for workers to move to richer countries is high. The idea of a place premium is corroborated by macroeconomic evidence. National accounts data show large cross-country output per worker differences, driven by the divergence of total factor productivity. The lack of convergence in total factor productivity and corresponding spatial productivity differentials create differences in the marginal product of factors, and hence persistent gaps in the wages of equal productivity workers. These differentials can equalize with factor flows; however their persistence and large magnitude in the case of labor, suggest legal barriers to migration restricting labor flows are in fact constraining significant return on human capital, and leaving billions in unrealized gains to the world’s workers and global economy. A relaxation of these barriers would generate worker welfare gains that dwarf gold-standard poverty reduction programs.
国际移民经济学的关键问题是,对于具有相同内在生产率的工人来说,观察到的各国实际工资差异是否代表了地域间劳动力流动的法律障碍所维持的经济效率低下。对各国受过同等正规教育或从事类似职业的工人的实际工资进行简单比较,就会发现富国与穷国之间存在巨大差距。在对观察到的和未观察到的人力资本特征进行调整后,这些差距仍然存在,这表明存在“位置溢价”——或特定空间的工资差异,这种差异不是由于工人的内在生产率,而是由于劳动力分配不当。如果工资差距不是由工人的内在生产率造成的,那么工人向富裕国家转移的动机就很高。宏观经济证据证实了这一观点。国民经济核算数据显示,在全要素生产率差异的推动下,各国人均产出存在巨大差异。全要素生产率的不收敛和相应的空间生产率差异造成了要素边际产量的差异,从而导致同等生产率工人的工资持续存在差距。这些差异可以与要素流动相平衡;然而,就劳动力而言,移民问题的持续存在和规模之大表明,限制劳动力流动的移民法律障碍实际上限制了人力资本的显著回报,并给世界工人和全球经济留下了数十亿美元的未实现收益。放松这些障碍将带来工人福利收益,使金本位的减贫计划相形见绌。
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引用次数: 7
Bootstrapping in Macroeconometrics 宏观计量经济学中的自举
Pub Date : 2020-05-29 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.165
H. Herwartz, Alexander Lange
Unlike traditional first order asymptotic approximations, the bootstrap is a simulation method to solve inferential issues in statistics and econometrics conditional on the available sample information (e.g. constructing confidence intervals, generating critical values for test statistics). Even though econometric theory yet provides sophisticated central limit theory covering various data characteristics, bootstrap approaches are of particular appeal if establishing asymptotic pivotalness of (econometric) diagnostics is infeasible or requires rather complex assessments of estimation uncertainty. Moreover, empirical macroeconomic analysis is typically constrained by short- to medium-sized time windows of sample information, and convergence of macroeconometric model estimates toward their asymptotic limits is often slow. Consistent bootstrap schemes have the potential to improve empirical significance levels in macroeconometric analysis and, moreover, could avoid explicit assessments of estimation uncertainty. In addition, as time-varying (co)variance structures and unmodeled serial correlation patterns are frequently diagnosed in macroeconometric analysis, more advanced bootstrap techniques (e.g., wild bootstrap, moving-block bootstrap) have been developed to account for nonpivotalness as a results of such data characteristics.
与传统的一阶渐近近似不同,bootstrap是一种模拟方法,用于解决统计学和计量经济学中基于可用样本信息的推理问题(例如构建置信区间,生成检验统计量的临界值)。尽管计量经济学理论还提供了涵盖各种数据特征的复杂的中心极限理论,但如果建立(计量经济学)诊断的渐近枢轴性是不可行的,或者需要对估计不确定性进行相当复杂的评估,那么自举方法就特别有吸引力。此外,实证宏观经济分析通常受到样本信息的短至中等时间窗口的约束,宏观计量模型估计向其渐近极限的收敛往往很慢。一致的自举方案有可能提高宏观计量分析中的经验显著性水平,而且可以避免对估计不确定性进行明确的评估。此外,随着时变(co)方差结构和未建模的序列相关模式在宏观计量经济学分析中经常被诊断出来,更先进的自举技术(例如,野生自举,移动块自举)已经被开发出来,以解释这些数据特征所导致的非枢轴性。
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引用次数: 1
China’s Economic Development 中国经济发展
Pub Date : 2020-05-29 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.482
L. Lau
Chinese real gross domestic product (GDP) grew from US$369 billion in 1978 to US$12.7 trillion in 2017 (in 2017 prices and exchange rate), at almost 10% per annum, making the country the second largest economy in the world, just behind the United States. During the same period, Chinese real GDP per capita grew from US$383 to US$9,137 (2017 prices), at 8.1% per annum. Chinese economic reform, which began in 1978, consists of two elements—introduction of free markets for goods and services, coupled with conditional producer autonomy, and opening to international trade and direct investment with the rest of the world. In its transition from a centrally planned to a market economy, China employed a “dual-track” approach—with the pre-existing mandatory central plan continuing in force and the establishment of free markets in parallel. In its opening to the world, China set a competitive exchange rate for its currency, made it current account convertible in 1994, and acceded to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001. In 2005, China became the second largest trading nation in the world, after the United States. Other Chinese policies complementary to its economic reform include the pre-existing low non-agricultural wage and the limit of one-child per couple, introduced in 1979 and phased out in 2016. The high rate of growth of Chinese real output since 1978 can be largely explained by the high rates of growth of inputs, but there were also other factors at work. Chinese economic growth since 1978 may be attributed as follows: (a) the elimination of the initial economic inefficiency (12.7%), (b) the growth of tangible capital (55.7%) and labor (9.7%) inputs, (c) technical progress (or growth of total factor productivity (TFP)) (8%), and (d) economies of scale (14%). The Chinese economy also shares many commonalities with other East Asian economies in terms of their development experiences: the lack of natural endowments, the initial conditions (the low real GDP per capita and the existence of surplus agricultural labor), the cultural characteristics (thrift, industry, and high value for education), the economic policies (competitive exchange rate, export promotion, investment in basic infrastructure, and maintenance of macroeconomic stability), and the consistency, predictability, and stability resulting from continuous one-party rule.
中国实际国内生产总值(GDP)从1978年的3690亿美元增长到2017年的12.7万亿美元(按2017年价格和汇率计算),年增长率接近10%,成为仅次于美国的世界第二大经济体。同期,中国实际人均GDP从383美元增长至9137美元(2017年价格),年均增长8.1%。中国的经济改革始于1978年,包括两个要素:引入商品和服务的自由市场,加上有条件的生产者自主权,以及向国际贸易和与世界其他地区的直接投资开放。在从中央计划经济向市场经济过渡的过程中,中国采用了“双轨”方式——既有强制性的中央计划继续有效,同时建立自由市场。在向世界开放的过程中,中国为人民币设定了具有竞争力的汇率,在1994年实现了经常账户可兑换,并在2001年加入了世界贸易组织(WTO)。2005年,中国成为世界第二大贸易国,仅次于美国。中国其他与经济改革相辅相成的政策还包括原本就存在的非农低工资,以及1979年引入并于2016年逐步取消的对每对夫妇只生一个孩子的限制。1978年以来中国实际产出的高增长率在很大程度上可以用投入的高增长率来解释,但也有其他因素在起作用。1978年以来的中国经济增长可以归结为:(a)消除了初始经济效率低下(12.7%),(b)有形资本(55.7%)和劳动力(9.7%)投入的增长,(c)技术进步(或全要素生产率(TFP)的增长)(8%),(d)规模经济(14%)。中国经济与东亚其他经济体的发展经历也有许多共同之处:自然禀赋的缺乏、初始条件(低实际人均GDP和农业剩余劳动力的存在)、文化特征(节俭、工业和高教育价值)、经济政策(有竞争力的汇率、促进出口、基础设施投资和维持宏观经济稳定),以及持续一党统治所带来的一致性、可预测性和稳定性。
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Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance
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