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Design of Discrete Choice Experiments 离散选择实验的设计
Pub Date : 2019-08-28 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.91
D. Street, R. Viney
Discrete choice experiments are a popular stated preference tool in health economics and have been used to address policy questions, establish consumer preferences for health and healthcare, and value health states, among other applications. They are particularly useful when revealed preference data are not available. Most commonly in choice experiments respondents are presented with a situation in which a choice must be made and with a a set of possible options. The options are described by a number of attributes, each of which takes a particular level for each option. The set of possible options is called a “choice set,” and a set of choice sets comprises the choice experiment. The attributes and levels are chosen by the analyst to allow modeling of the underlying preferences of respondents. Respondents are assumed to make utility-maximizing decisions, and the goal of the choice experiment is to estimate how the attribute levels affect the utility of the individual. Utility is assumed to have a systematic component (related to the attributes and levels) and a random component (which may relate to unobserved determinants of utility, individual characteristics or random variation in choices), and an assumption must be made about the distribution of the random component. The structure of the set of choice sets, from the universe of possible choice sets represented by the attributes and levels, that is shown to respondents determines which models can be fitted to the observed choice data and how accurately the effect of the attribute levels can be estimated. Important structural issues include the number of options in each choice set and whether or not options in the same choice set have common attribute levels. Two broad approaches to constructing the set of choice sets that make up a DCE exist—theoretical and algorithmic—and no consensus exists about which approach consistently delivers better designs, although simulation studies and in-field comparisons of designs constructed by both approaches exist.
离散选择实验是健康经济学中流行的陈述偏好工具,已被用于解决政策问题,建立消费者对健康和医疗保健的偏好,以及评估健康状态等应用。当没有显示的偏好数据时,它们特别有用。在选择实验中最常见的是,被调查者必须在一种情况下做出选择,并有一组可能的选择。选项由许多属性描述,每个属性对每个选项都具有特定级别。这组可能的选项被称为“选择集”,一组选择集组成了选择实验。属性和级别由分析人员选择,以允许对应答者的潜在偏好进行建模。假设受访者做出效用最大化的决策,选择实验的目标是估计属性水平如何影响个人的效用。假设效用有一个系统成分(与属性和水平有关)和一个随机成分(可能与效用的未观察到的决定因素、个体特征或选择的随机变化有关),并且必须对随机成分的分布做出假设。从属性和级别表示的可能的选择集的范围中,选择集的结构决定了哪些模型可以拟合到观察到的选择数据中,以及属性级别的影响可以有多准确地被估计出来。重要的结构问题包括每个选择集中的选项数量,以及同一选择集中的选项是否具有共同的属性级别。构建构成DCE的选择集集有两种广泛的方法——理论和算法——尽管对两种方法构建的设计进行了模拟研究和现场比较,但对于哪种方法能够始终提供更好的设计,并没有达成共识。
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引用次数: 1
The Law and Economics of Mergers and Acquisitions 并购的法律和经济学
Pub Date : 2019-08-28 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.346
Charles R. Korsmo
Law and economics has proved a particularly fruitful scholarly approach in the field of mergers and acquisitions. A huge law and economics literature has developed, providing critical insights into merger activity in general and the proper role of corporate and securities law in regulating this activity. Early economic research examined the motivations for merger activity and the antitrust implications of mergers. Later scholarship elucidated the important disciplining effects on management from merger activity and the market for corporate control. If management performs poorly, causing a firm to become undervalued relative to a well-managed firm, the firm becomes vulnerable to a takeover where management will be replaced. This prospect provides a powerful incentive for management to perform well. More recent work has revealed the limitations of market discipline on management actions in the merger context, and the corresponding role of corporate law in protecting stockholders. Because a merger is generally the final interaction between management and the other stakeholders in a firm, the typical constraints and mechanisms of accountability that otherwise constrain managerial opportunism may be rendered ineffective. This work has played a central role in informing modern jurisprudence. It has shaped the application of enhanced judicial scrutiny of management actions in the merger context, as embodied in the landmark Delaware cases Unocal and Revlon. The law and economics literature has also made important contribution to more recent developments in stockholder appraisal. The law and economics tradition has also provided a useful framework for evaluating the dynamics of merger litigation, including stockholder appraisal, and the extent to which such litigation can be made to serve a useful role in corporate governance.
在并购领域,法律和经济学已被证明是一种特别富有成效的学术方法。大量的法律和经济学文献已经形成,提供了对并购活动的重要见解,以及公司法和证券法在监管这一活动中的适当作用。早期的经济研究考察了并购活动的动机和并购的反垄断影响。后来的学者阐明了并购活动和公司控制权市场对管理的重要约束作用。如果管理表现不佳,导致公司相对于管理良好的公司被低估,公司就容易被收购,管理层将被取代。这种前景为管理层提供了强大的激励,使其表现良好。最近的工作揭示了市场纪律对合并背景下管理行为的局限性,以及公司法在保护股东方面的相应作用。由于合并通常是管理层与公司其他利益相关者之间的最后互动,因此约束管理机会主义的典型约束和问责机制可能变得无效。这项工作在为现代法学提供信息方面发挥了核心作用。它塑造了对合并背景下管理行为加强司法审查的应用,体现在具有里程碑意义的特拉华州优尼科和露华浓案件中。法律和经济学文献也对最近股东评估的发展做出了重要贡献。法律和经济学传统也为评估合并诉讼的动态提供了一个有用的框架,包括股东评估,以及这种诉讼在多大程度上可以在公司治理中发挥有用的作用。
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引用次数: 0
The Economics of Early Interventions Aimed at Child Development 针对儿童发展的早期干预经济学
Pub Date : 2019-08-28 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.545
S. Berlinski, M. Vera-Hernandez
A set of policies is at the center of the agenda on early childhood development: parenting programs, childcare regulation and subsidies, cash and in-kind transfers, and parental leave policies. Incentives are embedded in these policies, and households react to them differently. They also have varying effects on child development, both in developed and developing countries. We have learned much about the impact of these policies in the past 20 years. We know that parenting programs can enhance child development, that centre based care might increase female labor force participation and child development, that parental leave policies beyond three months don’t cause improvement in children outcomes, and that the effects of transfers depend much on their design. In this review, we focus on the incentives embedded in these policies, and how they interact with the context and decision makers to understand the heterogeneity of effects and the mechanisms through which these policies work. We conclude by identifying areas of future research.
儿童早期发展议程的核心是一系列政策:育儿计划、儿童保育监管和补贴、现金和实物转移支付以及育儿假政策。这些政策都包含激励措施,而家庭对这些政策的反应各不相同。它们对发达国家和发展中国家的儿童发展也有不同的影响。在过去的20年里,我们对这些政策的影响有了很多了解。我们知道,育儿计划可以促进儿童发展,以中心为基础的看护可能会提高女性劳动力的参与率和儿童的发展,超过三个月的育儿假政策不会改善儿童的状况,转移的效果在很大程度上取决于它们的设计。在这篇综述中,我们将重点关注这些政策中的激励机制,以及它们如何与环境和决策者相互作用,以了解这些政策的效果异质性和作用机制。最后,我们确定了未来的研究领域。
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引用次数: 5
Preferential Trade Agreements: Recent Theoretical and Empirical Developments 优惠贸易协定:最近的理论和实证发展
Pub Date : 2019-08-28 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.323
James Lake, P. Krishna
In recent decades, there has been a dramatic proliferation of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) between countries that, while legal, contradict the non-discrimination principle of the world trade system. This raises various issues, both theoretical and empirical, regarding the evolution of trade policy within the world trade system and the welfare implications for PTA members and non-members. The survey starts with the Kemp-Wan-Ohyama and Panagariya-Krishna analyses in the literature that theoretically show PTAs can always be constructed so that they (weakly) increase the welfare of members and non-members. Considerable attention is then devoted to recent developments on the interaction between PTAs and multilateral trade liberalization, focusing on two key incentives: an “exclusion incentive” of PTA members and a “free riding incentive” of PTA non-members. While the baseline presumption one should have in mind is that these incentives lead PTAs to inhibit the ultimate degree of global trade liberalization, this presumption can be overturned when dynamic considerations are taken into account or when countries can negotiate the degree of multilateral liberalization rather than facing a binary choice over global free trade. Promising areas for pushing this theoretical literature forward include the growing use of quantitative trade models, incorporating rules of origin and global value chains, modeling the issues surrounding “mega-regional” agreements, and modelling the possibility of exit from PTAs. Empirical evidence in the literature is mixed regarding whether PTAs lead to trade diversion or trade creation, whether PTAs have significant adverse effects on non-member terms-of-trade, whether PTAs lead members to lower external tariffs on non-members, and the role of PTAs in facilitating deep integration among members.
近几十年来,各国之间的优惠贸易协定急剧增加,这些协定虽然合法,但与世界贸易制度的不歧视原则相抵触。这就提出了关于世界贸易制度内贸易政策的演变以及优惠贸易区成员和非成员的福利影响的各种理论和经验问题。调查从文献中的Kemp-Wan-Ohyama和Panagariya-Krishna分析开始,从理论上讲,pta总是可以被构建成(微弱地)增加成员和非成员的福利。然后相当注意关于优惠贸易区与多边贸易自由化之间相互作用的最近发展,集中注意两个关键的奖励:优惠贸易区成员的“排除奖励”和优惠贸易区非成员的“搭便车奖励”。虽然人们应该牢记的基本假设是,这些激励措施会导致自由贸易协定抑制全球贸易自由化的最终程度,但当考虑到动态因素,或者当各国可以就多边自由化程度进行谈判,而不是面对全球自由贸易的二元选择时,这种假设就可以被推翻。推动这一理论文献向前发展的有希望的领域包括越来越多地使用定量贸易模型,将原产地规则和全球价值链纳入其中,对围绕“大区域”协议的问题进行建模,以及对退出自由贸易协定的可能性进行建模。文献中的经验证据对于贸易协定是否导致贸易转移或贸易创造,贸易协定是否对非成员的贸易条件有显著的不利影响,贸易协定是否导致成员降低对非成员的外部关税,以及贸易协定在促进成员之间深度一体化方面的作用等问题存在分歧。
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引用次数: 5
Exchange Rates, Interest Parity, and the Carry Trade 汇率、利率平价和套息交易
Pub Date : 2019-08-28 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.315
C. Burnside
The uncovered interest parity (UIP) condition states that the interest rate differential between two currencies is the expected rate of change of their exchange rate. Empirically, however, in the 1976–2018 period, exchange rate changes were approximately unpredictable over short horizons, with a slight tendency for currencies with higher interest rates to appreciate against currencies with lower interest rates. If the UIP condition held exactly, carry trades, in which investors borrow low interest rate currencies and lend high interest rate currencies, would earn zero average profits. The fact that UIP is violated, therefore, is a necessary condition to explain the fact that carry trades earned significantly positive profits in the 1976–2018 period. A large literature has documented the failure of UIP, as well as the profitability of carry trades, and is surveyed here. Additionally, summary evidence is provided here for the G10 currencies. This evidence shows that carry trades have been significantly less profitable since 2007–2008, and that there was an apparent structural break in exchange rate predictability around the same time. A large theoretical literature explores economic explanations of this phenomenon and is briefly surveyed here. Prominent among the theoretical models are ones based on risk aversion, peso problems, rare disasters, biases in investor expectations, information frictions, incomplete financial markets, and financial market segmentation.
未覆盖的利率平价(UIP)条件表明,两种货币之间的利率差异是其汇率的预期变化率。然而,从经验上看,在1976年至2018年期间,短期内的汇率变化几乎是不可预测的,利率较高的货币相对于利率较低的货币有轻微的升值趋势。如果UIP条件完全成立,套利交易(投资者借入低利率货币,借出高利率货币)的平均利润将为零。因此,UIP被违反的事实是解释套利交易在1976-2018年期间获得显著正利润这一事实的必要条件。大量文献记录了UIP的失败,以及套利交易的盈利能力,并在这里进行了调查。此外,本文还为G10货币提供了简要证据。这一证据表明,自2007-2008年以来,套息交易的盈利能力明显下降,同时,汇率可预测性出现了明显的结构性突破。大量的理论文献探讨了这一现象的经济学解释,并在此简要概述。主要的理论模型是基于风险规避、比索问题、罕见灾害、投资者预期偏差、信息摩擦、不完全金融市场和金融市场分割的理论模型。
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引用次数: 16
Heterogeneity in Cost-Effectiveness Analysis 成本效益分析中的异质性
Pub Date : 2019-08-28 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.101
C. Kohli-Lynch, A. Briggs
Cost-effectiveness analysis is conducted with the aim of maximizing population-level health outcomes given an exogenously determined budget constraint. Considerable health economic benefits can be achieved by reflecting heterogeneity in cost-effectiveness studies and implementing interventions based on this analysis. The following article describes forms of subgroup and heterogeneity in patient populations. It further discusses traditional decision rules employed in cost-effectiveness analysis and shows how these can be adapted to account for heterogeneity. This article discusses the theoretical basis for reflecting heterogeneity in cost-effectiveness analysis and methodology that can be employed to conduct such analysis. Reflecting heterogeneity in cost-effectiveness analysis allows decision-makers to define limited use criteria for treatments with a fixed price. This ensures that only those patients who are cost-effective to treat receive an intervention. Moreover, when price is not fixed, reflecting heterogeneity in cost-effectiveness analysis allows decision-makers to signal demand for healthcare interventions and ensure that payers achieve welfare gains when investing in health.
进行成本效益分析的目的是在外因决定的预算约束下最大限度地提高人口水平的健康结果。通过反映成本效益研究的异质性并根据这一分析实施干预措施,可获得可观的卫生经济效益。下面的文章描述了亚组的形式和患者群体的异质性。它进一步讨论了成本效益分析中使用的传统决策规则,并展示了如何调整这些规则以解释异质性。本文讨论了成本效益分析中反映异质性的理论基础,以及进行成本效益分析的方法。反映成本效益分析的异质性,使决策者能够为固定价格的治疗确定有限的使用标准。这确保了只有那些具有成本效益的患者才能接受干预。此外,当价格不固定时,反映成本效益分析中的异质性使决策者能够表明对医疗保健干预措施的需求,并确保付款人在投资于卫生时获得福利收益。
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引用次数: 1
Disability and Economic Development 残疾与经济发展
Pub Date : 2019-08-28 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.39
M. Suhrcke
While definitional and measurement problems pose a challenge, there is no doubt that disability affects a noticeable share of the population, the vast majority of whom live in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The still comparatively scarce empirical data and evidence suggests that disability is closely associated with poverty and other indicators of economic deprivation at both the country and—if with slightly greater nuance—at the individual/household level. There is also a growing body of evidence documenting the sizeable additional costs incurred by persons with disabilities (PwDs) as a direct or indirect consequence of their disability, underlining the increased risk of PwDs (and the households they are part of) falling under the absolute poverty line in any given LMIC. Looking ahead, there remains considerable scope for more evidence on the causal nature of the link between disability and poverty, as well as on the (cost-)effectiveness of interventions and policies attempting to improve the well-being of PwDs.
虽然定义和衡量问题构成了挑战,但毫无疑问,残疾影响了相当大一部分人口,其中绝大多数生活在低收入和中等收入国家。仍然相对稀少的经验数据和证据表明,在国家和个人/家庭层面上,残疾与贫困和其他经济剥夺指标密切相关。此外,越来越多的证据显示,残疾人士因其残疾而直接或间接招致大量额外开支,突显在任何低收入和中等收入国家,残疾人士(及其所属家庭)落入绝对贫困线以下的风险增加。展望未来,仍有相当大的空间需要更多的证据来证明残疾与贫困之间的因果关系,以及旨在改善残疾人士福祉的干预措施和政策的(成本)效益。
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引用次数: 0
Macroeconomic Aspects of Housing 房屋的宏观经济层面
Pub Date : 2019-08-28 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.294
C. Leung, Cho Yiu Joe Ng
This article summarizes research on the macroeconomic aspects of the housing market. In terms of the macroeconomic stylized facts, this article demonstrates that with respect to business cycle frequency, there was a general decrease in the association between macroeconomic variables (MV), such as the real GDP and inflation rate, and housing market variables (HMV), such as the housing price and the vacancy rate, following the global financial crisis (GFC). However, there are macro-finance variables, such as different interest rate spreads, that exhibited a strong association with the HMV following the GFC. For the medium-term business cycle frequency, some but not all patterns prevail. These “new stylized facts” suggest that a reconsideration and refinement of existing “macro-housing” theories would be appropriate. This article also provides a review of the corresponding academic literature, which may enhance our understanding of the evolving macro-housing–finance linkage.
本文总结了房地产市场宏观经济方面的研究。就宏观经济风格化的事实而言,本文表明,在全球金融危机(GFC)之后,就商业周期频率而言,宏观经济变量(MV)(如实际GDP和通货膨胀率)与住房市场变量(HMV)(如房价和空置率)之间的关联普遍下降。然而,有一些宏观金融变量,如不同的利差,在全球金融危机之后表现出与HMV的强烈关联。对于中期商业周期频率,一些模式(但不是所有模式)占上风。这些“新的风格化的事实”表明,重新考虑和完善现有的“宏观住房”理论是合适的。本文还对相关的学术文献进行了回顾,以加深我们对宏观住房与金融联系演变的理解。
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引用次数: 16
The Biological Foundations of Economic Preferences 经济偏好的生物学基础
Pub Date : 2019-08-28 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.490
Nikolaus Robalino, A. Robson
Modern economic theory rests on the basic assumption that agents’ choices are guided by preferences. The question of where such preferences might have come from has traditionally been ignored or viewed agnostically. The biological approach to economic behavior addresses the issue of the origins of economic preferences explicitly. This approach assumes that economic preferences are shaped by the forces of natural selection. For example, an important theoretical insight delivered thus far by this approach is that individuals ought to be more risk averse to aggregate than to idiosyncratic risk. Additionally the approach has delivered an evolutionary basis for hedonic and adaptive utility and an evolutionary rationale for “theory of mind.” Related empirical work has studied the evolution of time preferences, loss aversion, and explored the deep evolutionary determinants of long-run economic development.
现代经济理论建立在一个基本假设之上,即行为主体的选择是由偏好引导的。这种偏好从何而来的问题历来被忽视或被视为不可知论。研究经济行为的生物学方法明确地解决了经济偏好起源的问题。这种方法假定经济偏好是由自然选择的力量形成的。例如,迄今为止,这种方法提供了一个重要的理论见解,即个人应该更厌恶总体风险,而不是特殊风险。此外,该方法还为享乐和适应性效用提供了进化基础,并为“心智理论”提供了进化基础。相关实证工作研究了时间偏好、损失厌恶的演化,探索了经济长期发展的深层演化决定因素。
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引用次数: 1
Economic Life in Late Medieval and Early Modern Spain, 1085–1815 中世纪晚期和近代早期西班牙的经济生活,1085-1815
Pub Date : 2019-08-28 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.013.481
Hilario Casado Alonso, T. Ruiz
The period between 1085 to 1815 witnessed important transformations in Spain’s economic history. The transition from a frontier society to one of the largest empires in the world was soon followed by its subsequent decline. During Spain’s Middle Ages two kinds of economies, societies and political structures, existed side by side: One represented by the various Muslim kingdoms and another by the Christians. Their frontiers shifted constantly between 1035 and 1212 to the detriment of Al-Andalus (Muslim Spain), concluding with the conquest of Granada in 1492. Economic dynamism resulted in Christian expansion, reflected in demographic, agricultural, livestock, and commercial growth during the 11th, 12th, and 13th centuries and comparable to that of other medieval kingdoms. Under the stress of the mid-14th-century crisis (plagues, wars, and civil conflicts), economic growth came to a partial halt in the second half of the century. Yet, unlike other areas in Europe, the late medieval crisis had less of an impact in Spain, differently affecting some of the Iberian realms. After the second third of the 15th century, as it was the case in Portugal, the economy in the Crown of Castile began to grow once more. Castile became the demographic and economic hub of Spain to the detriment of other areas, such as Catalonia, Navarra, or Aragón, which had been more developed in earlier times. The Catholic Monarchs’ rule and their reforms made Spain one of the most prosperous economies in Europe and the center of a sprawling empire. The colonisation of the Americas and the Philippines with their untold wealth further bolstered Spain’s economy. As a result, most researchers agree that Spain reached the height of its economic growth in the mid-16th century, although in a number of regions growth extended into the 1580s. Based mostly in agriculture, the economy also benefitted from the development of crafts and, above all, trade, generating vast tax revenue for the Habsburg monarchy’s expansive policy of war. After the late 16th century, however, the Spanish economy began to show signs of fatigue, leading to severe crisis that lasted until at least the mid-17th century. This recession heralded a major shift in Spain’s history. Whereas it was the inland areas of Spain that were the most populated and wealthy during the 12th and 13th centuries, these areas were also most affected by the crisis, while the coastal regions would be the first to emerge from the recession. Although Spain failed to reach the heights attained in other countries such as Britain, France, or the Netherlands, an economic revival occurred during the 18th century, moving the Spanish economy beyond what it had been during the final third of the 16th century. Nonetheless, as had occurred in the 17th century, coastal areas developed more intensely than inland, leading to the economic geography of modern-day Spain.
1085年至1815年这段时间见证了西班牙经济史上的重要转变。从一个边疆社会到世界上最大的帝国之一的转变很快就伴随着随后的衰落。在中世纪的西班牙,两种经济、社会和政治结构并存:一种以各种穆斯林王国为代表,另一种以基督教徒为代表。从1035年到1212年,他们的疆界不断变化,损害了安达卢斯(穆斯林西班牙),最终在1492年征服了格拉纳达。经济活力导致基督教的扩张,反映在人口、农业、牲畜和商业增长在11、12和13世纪,可与其他中世纪王国相媲美。在14世纪中期危机(瘟疫、战争和国内冲突)的压力下,经济增长在14世纪下半叶部分停止。然而,与欧洲其他地区不同,中世纪晚期的危机对西班牙的影响较小,对伊比利亚地区的影响不同。15世纪后三分之二,就像葡萄牙的情况一样,卡斯蒂利亚王国的经济再次开始增长。卡斯蒂利亚成为西班牙的人口和经济中心,损害了其他地区,如加泰罗尼亚、纳瓦拉或Aragón,这些地区在早期更加发达。天主教君主的统治和改革使西班牙成为欧洲最繁荣的经济体之一,也是一个庞大帝国的中心。美洲和菲律宾的殖民统治以及他们无尽的财富进一步支撑了西班牙的经济。因此,大多数研究人员一致认为,西班牙在16世纪中叶达到了经济增长的高峰,尽管在一些地区,经济增长一直延续到16世纪80年代。经济主要以农业为基础,也受益于手工业的发展,尤其是贸易,为哈布斯堡王朝的扩张战争政策带来了巨大的税收收入。然而,在16世纪末之后,西班牙经济开始出现疲态,导致了严重的危机,这种危机至少持续到17世纪中期。这次经济衰退预示着西班牙历史上的重大转变。在12世纪和13世纪,西班牙的内陆地区是人口最多、最富裕的地区,但这些地区也是受危机影响最大的地区,而沿海地区将首先从经济衰退中复苏。尽管西班牙没有达到英国、法国或荷兰等其他国家所达到的高度,但18世纪出现了经济复苏,使西班牙经济超越了16世纪最后三分之一的水平。尽管如此,正如17世纪发生的那样,沿海地区的发展比内陆地区更为强烈,导致了现代西班牙的经济地理。
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引用次数: 0
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Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Economics and Finance
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