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The effect of urban capacity in knowledge recombination on digital economy development 城市知识重组能力对数字经济发展的影响
IF 3.9 3区 管理学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-08-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11192-024-05113-0
Jiaqi Wei, Ying Guo

Knowledge has become a crucial and foundational resource for the development of the digital economy. Employing a fixed-effects panel model and drawing upon panel data from 279 Chinese cities from 2014 to 2019, this study empirically investigates the differential impacts of two distinct knowledge recombination activities—recombinant reuse and recombinant creation—on the development of the digital economy at the city level. Additionally, the moderating role of knowledge diversification in this relationship is explored. Our findings reveal that recombinant reuse exerts a negative influence on urban digital economy development, whereas recombinant creation demonstrates a positive influence. Furthermore, this study observe that knowledge diversification plays a positive moderating role in the relationship between the two divergent types of knowledge recombination and urban digital economy development. The finding suggests that a higher degree of knowledge diversification may exacerbate the detrimental impact of recombinant reuse on urban digital economy development in cities where such activities are prevalent. Conversely, cities that prioritize recombinant creation may accrue additional benefits for digital economy growth by fostering a diverse knowledge base. This study emphasizes the significance of knowledge recombination types and knowledge structure features in digital economy development. It contributes to the enrichment of theoretical studies related to the digital economy and provides insights for policymakers in cities to formulate appropriate digital economy development strategies based on local knowledge production mechanisms.

知识已成为数字经济发展的重要基础资源。本研究采用固定效应面板模型,利用2014年至2019年中国279个城市的面板数据,实证研究了两种不同的知识重组活动--重组再利用和重组创造--对城市层面数字经济发展的不同影响。此外,还探讨了知识多样化在这一关系中的调节作用。我们的研究结果表明,重组再利用对城市数字经济发展有负面影响,而重组创造则有正面影响。此外,本研究还发现,知识多样化在两种不同类型的知识重组与城市数字经济发展之间的关系中发挥着积极的调节作用。这一发现表明,在知识重组活动盛行的城市,较高程度的知识多样化可能会加剧知识重组再利用对城市数字经济发展的不利影响。相反,优先考虑重组创造的城市可能会通过培育多样化的知识基础,为数字经济增长带来额外的好处。本研究强调了知识重组类型和知识结构特征在数字经济发展中的重要意义。它有助于丰富与数字经济相关的理论研究,并为城市决策者根据本地知识生产机制制定适当的数字经济发展战略提供启示。
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引用次数: 0
The evolution of order of authorship based on researchers’ age 基于研究人员年龄的作者顺序演变
IF 3.9 3区 管理学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-08-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11192-024-05124-x
Kyriakos Drivas

We examine the evolution of order of authorship based on seniority during 1975–2021. Results show that for small teams (≤ 5 authors), the likelihood of placing the most junior author first has been increasing since the nineties. Additionally, the likelihood of placing the most senior author in last place has also been increasing. The results are at least partially driven by digitization of bibliographic records that drastically facilitated assignment of citations to all authors. We interpret our findings as a growing trend of small author teams becoming fairer. We do not find any significant effects for larger teams suggesting different practices when team size increases. Given that team size is, slowly but steadily, increasing over the last decades, the debate over the ethical considerations around authorship practices should place significance on the number of co-authors.

我们研究了 1975-2021 年间基于资历的作者排序演变情况。结果表明,对于小型团队(作者不超过 5 人)而言,自九十年代以来,将资历最浅的作者排在第一位的可能性一直在增加。此外,将资历最老的作者排在最后一位的可能性也在增加。这些结果至少部分是由于书目记录的数字化大大方便了将引文分配给所有作者。我们将这一发现解释为小型作者团队变得越来越公平的趋势。我们没有发现任何对大型团队的显著影响,这表明当团队规模扩大时,会有不同的做法。鉴于团队规模在过去几十年中缓慢而稳定地增长,关于作者身份实践的伦理考虑的争论应重视共同作者的数量。
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引用次数: 0
Distribution by country, region, and publisher in environmental engineering journals in SCImago Journal and Country Rank database (1999–2022) SCImago 期刊和国家排名数据库中按国家、地区和出版商分列的环境工程期刊分布情况(1999-2022 年)
IF 3.9 3区 管理学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-08-01 DOI: 10.1007/s11192-024-05121-0
Luis Fernando Gómez, Andrés Felipe Montoya-Rendón, Juan Pablo Vélez-Uribe

The rise of globalization and the advent of Internet gave birth to a new science model in which national systems compete for a place in a global communication network where their products could circulate and gain notoriety. Several studies have been carried out to assess national performance in such network, particularly in terms of scientific research output and collaboration networks. However, academic journals in specific disciplines have not received the same attention. The purpose of this paper was to evaluate the evolution of journal prestige in terms of country and region of origin in the field of environmental engineering in SCImago Journal and Rank database during 1999–2022. It was found that Western countries and private publishers still dominate the discipline in 2022. The United Kingdom, the United States, and the Netherlands housed 51.16% of journals in 2022. Also, corporate publishers with headquarters in these countries own most of the journals, particularly in the top tier. Elsevier, Springer, and Taylor & Francis had a total 54 journals indexed in 2022, and 65.9% of journals rank in the first quartile belonged to these groups. However, Poland, China, and Iran have become major players. By 2022, they had 12, 10, and 7 environmental engineering journals indexed in SCImago Journal and Country Rank, and China and Iran’s journals have been ranked as Q1.

全球化的兴起和互联网的出现催生了一种新的科学模式,在这种模式中,国家系统竞相在全球通信网络中争得一席之地,其产品可以在该网络中流通并获得声誉。为了评估各国在这种网络中的表现,特别是在科研成果和合作网络方面的表现,已经开展了多项研究。然而,特定学科的学术期刊却没有受到同样的关注。本文旨在评估 1999-2022 年间 SCImago 期刊和排名数据库中环境工程领域期刊在来源国和来源地区方面的声望演变情况。结果发现,2022 年西方国家和私营出版商在该学科中仍占主导地位。英国、美国和荷兰在 2022 年拥有 51.16%的期刊。此外,总部设在这些国家的企业出版商拥有大部分期刊,尤其是顶级期刊。爱思唯尔(Elsevier)、施普林格(Springer)和泰勒-弗朗西斯(Taylor & Francis)在2022年共有54种期刊被收录,排名第一四分位的期刊中有65.9%属于这些集团。不过,波兰、中国和伊朗已成为主要参与者。到 2022 年,波兰、中国和伊朗分别有 12、10 和 7 种环境工程期刊被 SCImago 期刊和国家排名收录,中国和伊朗的期刊排名为第一季度。
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引用次数: 0
Research paper recommendation system based on multiple features from citation network 基于引文网络多重特征的研究论文推荐系统
IF 3.9 3区 管理学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.1007/s11192-024-05109-w
Tayyaba Kanwal, Tehmina Amjad

With tremendous growth in the volume of published scholarly work, it becomes quite difficult for researchers to find appropriate documents relevant to their research topic. Many research paper recommendation approaches have been proposed and implemented which include collaborative filtering, content-based, metadata, link-based and multi-level citation network. In this research, a novel Research paper Recommendation system is proposed by integrating Multiple Features (RRMF). RRMF constructs a multi-level citation network and collaboration network of authors for feature integration. The structure and semantic based relationships are identified from the citation network whereas key authors are extracted from collaboration network for the study. For experimentation and analysis, AMiner v12 DBLP-Citation Network is used that covers 4,894,081 academic papers and 45,564,149 citation relationships. The information retrieval metrices including Mean Average Precision, Mean Reciprocal Rank and Normalized Discounted Cumulative Gain are used for evaluating the performance of proposed system. The research results of proposed approach RRMF are compared with baseline Multilevel Simultaneous Citation Network (MSCN) and Google Scholar. Consequently, comparison of RRMF showed 87% better recommendations than the traditional MSCN and Google Scholar.

随着学术论文发表量的大幅增长,研究人员要找到与其研究课题相关的合适文档变得相当困难。许多研究论文推荐方法已被提出并付诸实施,其中包括协同过滤、基于内容、元数据、基于链接和多级引文网络等。本研究提出了一种新颖的研究论文推荐系统,该系统整合了多重特征(RRMF)。RRMF 构建了多级引文网络和作者协作网络,以实现特征整合。从引文网络中确定结构和语义关系,从协作网络中提取关键作者,从而进行研究。在实验和分析中,使用了 AMiner v12 DBLP-Citation 网络,该网络覆盖了 4,894,081 篇学术论文和 45,564,149 个引文关系。信息检索指标包括平均精度(Mean Average Precision)、平均互易等级(Mean Reciprocal Rank)和归一化贴现累积收益(Normalized Discounted Cumulative Gain),用于评估拟议系统的性能。将拟议方法 RRMF 的研究结果与基准多级同时引文网络(MSCN)和谷歌学术进行了比较。结果显示,RRMF 的推荐结果比传统的 MSCN 和 Google Scholar 高出 87%。
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引用次数: 0
Breach of academic values and misconduct: the case of Sci-Hub 违背学术价值观和不端行为:科学-互联(Sci-Hub)案例
IF 3.9 3区 管理学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-07-27 DOI: 10.1007/s11192-024-05046-8
Giulia Rossello, Arianna Martinelli

This paper investigates the growing evidence of research-related misconduct by developing and testing a theoretical framework. We study the deep causes of misconduct by asking whether the perception of an erosion of the core academic values, formally an ideology-based psychological contract breach, is associated with research-related misconduct. We test our framework by examining the use of Sci-Hub and providing empirical evidence that the loss of faith in scientific research sparkles research-related misconduct against publishers. Based on a stratified sample of 2849 academics working in 30 institutions in 6 European countries, we find that ideology-based psychological contract breach explains Sci-Hub usage, also when controlling for other possible motivations. The magnitude of the effect depends on contextual and demographic characteristics. Females, foreign, and tenured scholars are less likely to download papers illegally when experiencing a contract breach of academic values. Our results suggest that policies restoring academic values might also address research-related misconduct.

本文通过建立和检验一个理论框架,对与研究相关的不端行为日益增多的证据进行了研究。我们研究了不端行为的深层原因,提出了核心学术价值观受到侵蚀的感知是否与研究相关的不端行为相关,也就是基于意识形态的心理契约违约。我们通过研究Sci-Hub的使用情况来检验我们的框架,并提供了实证证据,证明对科学研究失去信心会引发针对出版商的研究相关不端行为。基于在 6 个欧洲国家 30 个机构工作的 2849 名学者的分层抽样,我们发现,基于意识形态的心理契约违约可以解释科学-互联(Sci-Hub)的使用情况,同时也控制了其他可能的动机。影响的程度取决于环境和人口特征。女性、外国学者和终身教职学者在经历学术价值契约违约时,不太可能非法下载论文。我们的研究结果表明,恢复学术价值的政策也可以解决与研究相关的不端行为。
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引用次数: 0
Through the secret gate: a study of member-contributed submissions in PNAS 通过 "秘密之门":对《美国国家科学院院刊》(PNAS)会员投稿的研究
IF 3.9 3区 管理学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-07-27 DOI: 10.1007/s11192-024-05115-y
Jens Peter Andersen, Serge P. J. M. Horbach, Tony Ross-Hellauer

This work studies “Contributed” articles in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS), a streamlined submission track for members of the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS). We assess the characteristics and impact of those articles and the background and status of their authors, by comparing these articles to PNAS articles following the traditional editorial process. Analyzing over 46,000 articles published between 2007 and 2020, we find: Firstly, and perhaps most centrally, (1) Contributed articles generally appear in lower per-author citation deciles than Direct submissions, but are more likely to appear in the overall top citation deciles of authors; (2) PNAS-Contributed articles tend to spend less time in the review process than Direct submissions; (3) Direct submissions tend to be slightly higher cited than Contributed articles, which are particularly overrepresented amongst least-cited PNAS papers. Disciplinary differences were negligible; (4) authors with lower mean normalized citation scores are profiting most from articles published as Contributed papers, in terms of citation impact; (5) NAS members tend to publish most Contributed articles in the first years after becoming an NAS member, with men publishing more of these articles than women; (6) Contributing authors take up a unique niche in terms of authorship roles, mainly performing supervisory and conceptualisation tasks, without the administration and funding acquisition tasks usually associated with last authors.

这项工作研究的是《美国国家科学院院刊》(PNAS)中的 "投稿 "文章,这是美国国家科学院(NAS)成员的一种简化投稿途径。我们将这些文章与按照传统编辑流程撰写的《美国国家科学院院刊》文章进行比较,以评估这些文章的特点和影响力,以及作者的背景和地位。通过分析 2007 年至 2020 年间发表的 46,000 多篇文章,我们发现:首先,或许也是最核心的一点是:(1) 投稿文章的单篇作者引用率一般低于直接投稿文章,但更有可能出现在作者总体引用率最高的十分位数中;(2) PNAS 投稿文章的审稿时间往往少于直接投稿文章;(3) 直接投稿文章的引用率往往略高于投稿文章,而投稿文章在引用率最低的 PNAS 论文中所占比例尤其高。学科差异可以忽略不计;(4) 就引文影响而言,平均归一化引文得分较低的作者从作为投稿论文发表的文章中获益最多;(5) NAS 会员往往在成为 NAS 会员后的头几年发表最多的投稿文章,其中男性发表的文章多于女性;(6) 投稿作者在作者身份方面具有独特的优势,主要履行监督和构思任务,而没有通常与最后作者相关的管理和资金获取任务。
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引用次数: 0
Measuring the global and domestic technological impact of Chinese scientific output: a patent-to-paper citation analysis of science-technology linkage 衡量中国科技产出的全球和国内技术影响:从专利到论文引用的科技联系分析
IF 3.9 3区 管理学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-07-27 DOI: 10.1007/s11192-024-05110-3
Ziyou Teng, Xuezhong Zhu

Tracing the utilization of science in technological innovations, especially the fraction with regard to public research, is of major importance in science policy. We explore the evolution of the global and domestic technological impact of Chinese scientific output with a detailed analysis of 6,901,428 utility patents granted at USPTO from 1976 to 2020 and their 337,949 citations to Chinese scientific publications. The results show that Chinese scientific output plays an increasingly critical role in science-based innovations while its contributions to domestic and foreign technology are fluctuated over the period. The domestic use of Chinese research is shrinking in late 1990s but keeps increasing thereafter. The technological impact of Chinese scientific output varies in different technology sectors. The recent growing share of Chinese-invented technology in the citing patents is dominated by Chinese patents in digital communication. The time lag of domestic citations is smaller than foreign citations, which is partially owing to the self-citations of Chinese inventors. However, the contributions of self-citations to short knowledge diffusion times are heterogeneous across technology fields. The largest producer of the cited science is universities and the next is public research organizations. Companies account for a meager quantity of total citations and their proportion is shrinking since 2007. Specifically, private technology depends substantially on public research for scientific knowledge. A national bias is found in the scientific knowledge components of patents assigned to companies, which to a certain point indicates the area where academia and industry hold a close relationship in China and Chinese companies are specialized. Taken together, these findings provide a dynamic country- and sector-dependent linkage of Chinese scientific output to domestic and global technology.

追踪科学在技术创新中的利用情况,尤其是公共研究的部分利用情况,在科学政策中具有重要意义。我们通过详细分析美国专利商标局从 1976 年到 2020 年授予的 6,901,428 项实用新型专利及其对中国科学出版物的 337,949 次引用,探讨了中国科学产出对全球和国内技术影响的演变。研究结果表明,中国科技产出在科学创新中发挥着越来越关键的作用,而其对国内外技术的贡献在此期间则有所波动。在 20 世纪 90 年代末,中国科研成果在国内的使用呈下降趋势,但随后不断增加。中国科研成果对不同技术领域的技术影响各不相同。最近,中国发明专利在引用专利中所占的份额不断增加,其中主要是数字通信领域的中国专利。国内引用的时滞小于国外引用,部分原因在于中国发明人的自我引用。然而,自我引用对缩短知识扩散时间的贡献在不同技术领域存在差异。高校是科学引文的最大生产者,其次是公共研究机构。企业在总引用量中所占比例很小,而且自 2007 年以来还在不断缩小。具体而言,私人技术在很大程度上依赖于公共研究的科学知识。在分配给企业的专利中,科学知识部分存在国家偏见,这在一定程度上表明了中国学术界和产业界的密切关系,以及中国企业的专业领域。总之,这些研究结果提供了中国科学产出与国内和全球技术的动态联系,这种联系取决于国家和行业。
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引用次数: 0
Automated taxonomy alignment via large language models: bridging the gap between knowledge domains 通过大型语言模型进行自动分类对齐:缩小知识领域之间的差距
IF 3.9 3区 管理学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.1007/s11192-024-05111-2
Wentao Cui, Meng Xiao, Ludi Wang, Xuezhi Wang, Yi Du, Yuanchun Zhou

Taxonomy alignment is essential for integrating knowledge across diverse domains and languages, facilitating information retrieval and data integration. Traditional methods heavily reliant on domain experts are time-consuming and resource-intensive. To address this challenge, this paper proposes an automated taxonomy alignment approach leveraging large language models (LLMs). We introduce a method that embeds taxonomy nodes into a continuous low-dimensional vector space, utilizing hierarchical relationships within category concepts to enhance alignment accuracy. Our approach capitalizes on the contextual understanding and semantic information capabilities of LLMs, offering a promising solution to the challenges of taxonomy alignment. We conducted experiments on two pairs of real-world taxonomies and demonstrated that our method is comparable in accuracy to manual alignment, while significantly reducing time, operational, and maintenance costs associated with taxonomy alignment. Our case study showcases the effectiveness of our approach by visualizing the taxonomy alignment results. This automated alignment framework addresses the increasing demand for accurate and efficient alignment processes across diverse knowledge domains.

分类标准对齐对于整合不同领域和语言的知识、促进信息检索和数据整合至关重要。严重依赖领域专家的传统方法既耗时又耗费资源。为了应对这一挑战,本文提出了一种利用大型语言模型(LLM)的自动分类法对齐方法。我们介绍了一种将分类法节点嵌入连续低维向量空间的方法,利用分类概念内的层次关系来提高对齐的准确性。我们的方法利用了 LLM 的上下文理解和语义信息能力,为解决分类法对齐难题提供了一个前景广阔的解决方案。我们在两对真实世界的分类法上进行了实验,结果表明我们的方法在准确性上与人工对齐不相上下,同时大大减少了与分类法对齐相关的时间、操作和维护成本。我们的案例研究通过可视化分类标准对齐结果,展示了我们方法的有效性。这一自动对齐框架满足了不同知识领域对准确、高效对齐流程日益增长的需求。
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引用次数: 0
Evolving patterns of extreme publishing behavior across science 科学界极端出版行为模式的演变
IF 3.9 3区 管理学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.1007/s11192-024-05117-w
John P. A. Ioannidis, Thomas A. Collins, Jeroen Baas

Extreme publishing behavior may reflect a combination of some authors with genuinely high publication output and of other people who have their names listed too frequently in publications because of consortium agreements, gift authorship or other spurious practices. We aimed to evaluate the evolution of extreme publishing behavior across countries and scientific fields during 2000–2022. Extreme publishing behavior was defined as having > 60 full articles (original articles, reviews, conference papers) in a single calendar year and indexed in Scopus. We identified 3191 authors with extreme publishing behavior across science excluding Physics and 12624 such authors in Physics. While Physics had much higher numbers of extreme publishing authors in the past, in 2022 extreme publishing authors was almost as numerous in non-Physics and Physics disciplines (1226 vs. 1480). Excluding Physics, China had the largest number of extreme publishing authors, followed by the USA. The largest fold-wise increases between 2016 and 2022 (5-19-fold) occurred in Thailand, Saudi Arabia, Spain, India, Italy, Russia, Pakistan, and South Korea. Excluding Physics, most extreme publishing authors were in Clinical Medicine, but from 2016 to 2022 the largest relative increases (> sixfold) were seen in Agriculture, Fisheries & Forestry, Biology, and Mathematics and Statistics. Extreme publishing authors accounted for 4360 of the 10000 most-cited authors (based on raw citation count) across science. While most Physics authors with extreme publishing behavior had modest citation impact in a composite citation indicator that adjusts for co-authorship and author positions, 67% of authors with extreme publishing behavior in non-Physics fields remained within the top-2% according to that indicator among all authors with > = 5 full articles. Extreme publishing behavior has become worryingly common across scientific fields with rapidly increasing rates in some countries and settings and may herald a rapid depreciation of authorship standards.

极端出版行为可能反映出一些作者的出版量确实很高,也可能反映出另一些人由于联盟协议、赠与作者身份或其他虚假做法而使自己的名字过于频繁地出现在出版物中。我们旨在评估 2000-2022 年间不同国家和科学领域极端出版行为的演变情况。极端发表行为被定义为在一个日历年度内发表了 60 篇完整文章(原创文章、综述、会议论文)并被 Scopus 索引。我们在除物理学之外的所有科学领域中发现了 3191 位具有极端发表行为的作者,而在物理学领域则发现了 12624 位具有极端发表行为的作者。过去,物理学科的极端发表作者数量要高得多,而在2022年,非物理学科和物理学科的极端发表作者数量几乎相当(1226对1480)。除物理学外,中国的极端出版作者人数最多,其次是美国。泰国、沙特阿拉伯、西班牙、印度、意大利、俄罗斯、巴基斯坦和韩国在 2016 至 2022 年间的增幅最大(5-19 倍)。除物理学外,大多数极端出版作者都在临床医学领域,但从 2016 年到 2022 年,相对增幅最大(> 6 倍)的领域是农业、渔业& 林业、生物学和数学与统计学。在科学领域被引用次数最多的 10000 位作者中,极端发表论文的作者占 4360 位(基于原始引用次数)。虽然大多数有极端发表行为的物理学作者的引文影响不大,但根据一项综合引文指标(该指标对合著作者和作者位置进行了调整),67%在非物理学领域有极端发表行为的作者在所有发表> = 5篇完整文章的作者中仍处于前2%的位置。在一些国家和环境中,极端发表行为在各科学领域中的普遍性令人担忧,其比例还在迅速上升,这可能预示着作者标准正在迅速降低。
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引用次数: 0
Ten year citation prediction model for systematic reviews using early years citation data 利用早年引文数据建立系统综述十年引文预测模型
IF 3.9 3区 管理学 Q2 COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Pub Date : 2024-07-22 DOI: 10.1007/s11192-024-05105-0
Manuel Marques-Cruz, Daniel Martinho Dias, João A. Fonseca, Bernardo Sousa-Pinto

Citation counts are frequently used for assessing the scientific impact of articles. Current approaches for forecasting future citations counts have important limitations. This study aims to analyse and predict the trajectories of citation counts of systematic reviews (SR) based on their citation profiles in the previous years and predict quantiles of future citation counts. We included all SR published between 2010 and 2012 in medical journals indexed in the Web of Science. A longitudinal k-means (KML) clustering approach was applied to identify trajectories of citations counts 10 years after publication, according to the yearly citation count, the proportion of all cites attained in a specific year and the annual variation in citation counts. Finally, we built multinomial logistic regression models aiming to predict in what tercile or quartile of citation counts a SR would be 10 years after publication. Using clustering approaches, we obtained 24 groups of SR. Two groups (7.9% of the articles) had an average of > 200 citations, while two other groups (10.4% of the articles) presented an average of < 10 citations. The model predicting terciles of citation counts attained an accuracy of 72.8% (95%CI = 71.1–74.3%) and a kappa coefficient of 0.59 (95%CI = 0.57–0.62). Prediction of citation quartiles (combining the second and third quartiles into a single group) attained a accuracy of 76.2% (95%CI = 74.7–77.8%) and a kappa coefficient of 0.62 (95%CI = 0.59–0.64). This study provides an approach for predicting of future citations of SR based exclusively on citation counts from the previous years, with the models developed displaying an encouraging accuracy and agreement.

引用次数常用于评估文章的科学影响力。目前预测未来被引次数的方法有很大的局限性。本研究旨在根据系统综述(SR)前几年的被引情况分析和预测其被引次数的轨迹,并预测未来被引次数的量化值。我们收录了 2010 年至 2012 年间发表在被 Web of Science(科学网)收录的医学期刊上的所有系统综述。我们采用纵向 K-均值(KML)聚类方法,根据年度引文数、特定年份获得的所有引文的比例以及引文数的年度变化,确定论文发表 10 年后的引文数轨迹。最后,我们建立了多项式逻辑回归模型,旨在预测一篇论文发表 10 年后的引用次数将处于哪个三元组或四元组。通过聚类方法,我们得到了 24 组 SR。其中两组(占文章总数的 7.9%)的平均引用次数为 200 次,另外两组(占文章总数的 10.4%)的平均引用次数为 10 次。该模型预测引用数三分位数的准确率为 72.8%(95%CI = 71.1-74.3%),卡帕系数为 0.59(95%CI = 0.57-0.62)。引文四分位数预测(将第二和第三四分位数合并为一组)的准确率为 76.2%(95%CI = 74.7-77.8%),卡帕系数为 0.62(95%CI = 0.59-0.64)。本研究提供了一种完全基于前几年被引次数预测SR未来被引情况的方法,所建立的模型显示出令人鼓舞的准确性和一致性。
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引用次数: 0
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Scientometrics
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