Pub Date : 2025-03-01Epub Date: 2024-02-02DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102446
Johan Maljaars , John Leander , Alain Nussbaumer , John Daalsgaard Sørensen , Daniel Straub
We review of the state of the art in probabilistic modelling for fatigue reliability of civil engineering and offshore structures. The modelling of randomness and uncertainty in fatigue resistance and fatigue load variables are presented in some detail. This is followed by a review of the specifics of reliability analysis for fatigue limit states and a background on the semi-probabilistic treatment of fatigue safety. We discuss the different life-cycle reliability concepts and give an overview on probabilistic inspection planning. We describe the choices made in the Probabilistic Model Code of the Joint Committee of Structural Safety, present alternatives to these choices and suggest areas of future research.
{"title":"Models and methods for probabilistic safety assessment of steel structures subject to fatigue","authors":"Johan Maljaars , John Leander , Alain Nussbaumer , John Daalsgaard Sørensen , Daniel Straub","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102446","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102446","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We review of the state of the art in probabilistic modelling for fatigue reliability of civil engineering and offshore structures. The modelling of randomness and uncertainty in fatigue resistance and fatigue load variables are presented in some detail. This is followed by a review of the specifics of reliability analysis for fatigue limit states and a background on the semi-probabilistic treatment of fatigue safety. We discuss the different life-cycle reliability concepts and give an overview on probabilistic inspection planning. We describe the choices made in the Probabilistic Model Code of the Joint Committee of Structural Safety, present alternatives to these choices and suggest areas of future research.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 102446"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139664630","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-01Epub Date: 2024-02-23DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102453
Mahesh Pandey , Celeste Viljoen , Andrew Way , Katharina Fischer , Miroslav Sýkora , Dimitris Diamantidis , Raphaël D.J.M. Steenbergen , Niels Lind , Dan M. Frangopol , David Y. Yang , Johan V. Retief , João André , Jatin Nathwani , Roman Lenner
We review the developments in life safety and the incorporation thereof in the design and assessment of structures over the last 50 years. Various measures of life safety are presented that have been developed according to the marginal life saving cost principle based on individual, societal and economic considerations. Target probabilities of failure, or target reliabilities, are central to modern structural design and assessment. These are derived either through back-calibration to existing practice or through life cycle cost minimisation, both of which yield comparable safety levels, and are underpinned by lower bounds from life safety. Life cycle cost minimisation is reviewed here, which considers all direct and indirect costs of failure including loss of life and limb, as well as the costs and efficiency of increasing reliability. We discuss the incorporation of life safety into reliability-based design and assessment through the concept of the Life Quality Index, which uses key societal indicators, namely, the GDP and life expectancy, and health economics as a basis for specifying minimum reliabilities for both new and existing structures. The current state of advancement of reliability- and risk-informed design, and recommendations for future developments in life safety are considered.
{"title":"Life safety in the Reliability-Based design and assessment of structures","authors":"Mahesh Pandey , Celeste Viljoen , Andrew Way , Katharina Fischer , Miroslav Sýkora , Dimitris Diamantidis , Raphaël D.J.M. Steenbergen , Niels Lind , Dan M. Frangopol , David Y. Yang , Johan V. Retief , João André , Jatin Nathwani , Roman Lenner","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102453","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102453","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We review the developments in life safety and the incorporation thereof in the design and assessment of structures over the last 50 years. Various measures of life safety are presented that have been developed according to the marginal life saving cost principle based on individual, societal and economic considerations. Target probabilities of failure, or target reliabilities, are central to modern structural design and assessment. These are derived either through back-calibration to existing practice or through life cycle cost minimisation, both of which yield comparable safety levels, and are underpinned by lower bounds from life safety. Life cycle cost minimisation is reviewed here, which considers all direct and indirect costs of failure including loss of life and limb, as well as the costs and efficiency of increasing reliability. We discuss the incorporation of life safety into reliability-based design and assessment through the concept of the Life Quality Index, which uses key societal indicators, namely, the GDP and life expectancy, and health economics as a basis for specifying minimum reliabilities for both new and existing structures. The current state of advancement of reliability- and risk-informed design, and recommendations for future developments in life safety are considered.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 102453"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140463647","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-01Epub Date: 2024-04-18DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102474
Bruce Ellingwood , Marc Maes , F. Michael Bartlett , Andre T. Beck , Colin Caprani , Armen Der Kiureghian , Leonardo Dueñas-Osorio , Neryvaldo Galvão , Robert Gilbert , Jie Li , Jose Matos , Yasuhiro Mori , Iason Papaioannou , Roger Parades , Daniel Straub , Bruno Sudret
The growth of structural reliability theory and applications, along with a recognition of its role in guiding the structural engineering profession in addressing some of the most important issues in design of the built environment, represents one of the key engineering achievements during the past five decades. Structural reliability provides a unifying framework for managing uncertainties affecting performance of structures and a quantitative link between the practice of structural engineering and its social consequences. Such links perhaps are most obvious in probability-based codified design and performance evaluation but there are numerous other applications, which are summarized in this special issue. As the field has matured, researchers in reliability have worked with structural engineers to elevate both the practice of structural engineering and the quality of research to levels that otherwise would not have been possible. The Joint Committee on Structural Safety has played a central role in this historic development and it will inspire future opportunities for the reliability community to build upon past successes to improve structural engineering and construction practices. This paper surveys the key theoretical developments and milestones that enable these opportunities.
{"title":"Development of methods of structural reliability","authors":"Bruce Ellingwood , Marc Maes , F. Michael Bartlett , Andre T. Beck , Colin Caprani , Armen Der Kiureghian , Leonardo Dueñas-Osorio , Neryvaldo Galvão , Robert Gilbert , Jie Li , Jose Matos , Yasuhiro Mori , Iason Papaioannou , Roger Parades , Daniel Straub , Bruno Sudret","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102474","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102474","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The growth of structural reliability theory and applications, along with a recognition of its role in guiding the structural engineering profession in addressing some of the most important issues in design of the built environment, represents one of the key engineering achievements during the past five decades. Structural reliability provides a unifying framework for managing uncertainties affecting performance of structures and a quantitative link between the practice of structural engineering and its social consequences. Such links perhaps are most obvious in probability-based codified design and performance evaluation but there are numerous other applications, which are summarized in this special issue. As the field has matured, researchers in reliability have worked with structural engineers to elevate both the practice of structural engineering and the quality of research to levels that otherwise would not have been possible. The Joint Committee on Structural Safety has played a central role in this historic development and it will inspire future opportunities for the reliability community to build upon past successes to improve structural engineering and construction practices. This paper surveys the key theoretical developments and milestones that enable these opportunities.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 102474"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140788037","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-01Epub Date: 2024-03-24DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102468
Ton Vrouwenvelder , Michael Baker , Michael Havbro Faber
Society expects buildings and structures in the built environment to possess an adequate level of safety. This holds true throughout the whole life cycle of the structure, from the erection stage until the end of life and also during its eventual demolition. In order to achieve this objective, engineers need to have knowledge of structural materials, the use of the structure and the various interactions with the environment. Fundamentally, this knowledge is rarely available in a deterministic form and decisions have to be made taking into account the various sources of uncertainty that affect the structure’s behaviour. The need to answer the question of how to account for such uncertainties and their effects on structural safety was one of the main reasons for the creation of the Joint Committee on Structural Safety over half a century ago. This paper presents an historical account of how it started, the development of the philosophical background and objectives over the course of time, and its main achievements and key publications. The paper closes with a short reflection on what has been achieved and what is required in the future.
{"title":"The JCSS – A major contributor to structural safety through half a century","authors":"Ton Vrouwenvelder , Michael Baker , Michael Havbro Faber","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102468","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102468","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Society expects buildings and structures in the built environment to possess an adequate level of safety. This holds true throughout the whole life cycle of the structure, from the erection stage until the end of life and also during its eventual demolition. In order to achieve this objective, engineers need to have knowledge of structural materials, the use of the structure and the various interactions with the environment. Fundamentally, this knowledge is rarely available in a deterministic form and decisions have to be made taking into account the various sources of uncertainty that affect the structure’s behaviour. The need to answer the question of how to account for such uncertainties and their effects on structural safety was one of the main reasons for the creation of the Joint Committee on Structural Safety over half a century ago. This paper presents an historical account of how it started, the development of the philosophical background and objectives over the course of time, and its main achievements and key publications. The paper closes with a short reflection on what has been achieved and what is required in the future.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 102468"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140402089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-01Epub Date: 2024-04-15DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102473
Ton Vrouwenvelder , André Beck , Dirk Proske , Michael Faber , Jochen Köhler , Matthias Schubert , Daniel Straub , Max Teichgräber
The term probability is essential in the domain of structural safety and yet its interpretation is, even after more than 50 years of application, still a subject of discussion. For instance, the probability of failure of structures belonging to the same cohort for a specific period of time, is often understood in a pure frequentist way as an observable average number of failure events for that period and portfolio. By contrast, the Bayesian interpretation considers probability as a degree of belief and a reflection of the state of information to the best belief or knowledge of the decision maker. In the field of structural reliability, depending on the type of decision problem, probabilities are often referred to as nominal (or notional) measures of uncertainty to emphasize that these values are conditional on a model and available observations. Probabilistic methods then serve primarily to undertake the book-keeping required to assign probabilities to different possible outcomes or decisions in consistency with models, available observations and other relevant information. This paper discusses the background of these interpretations and the degree to which correspondence between reliability calculations and observations of failures can be expected and/or achieved. Recommendations corresponding to the JCSS line of thinking will be summarized in Section 8.
{"title":"Interpretation of probability in structural safety – A philosophical conundrum","authors":"Ton Vrouwenvelder , André Beck , Dirk Proske , Michael Faber , Jochen Köhler , Matthias Schubert , Daniel Straub , Max Teichgräber","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102473","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102473","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The term probability is essential in the domain of structural safety and yet its interpretation is, even after more than 50 years of application, still a subject of discussion. For instance, the probability of failure of structures belonging to the same cohort for a specific period of time, is often understood in a pure frequentist way as an observable average number of failure events for that period and portfolio. By contrast, the Bayesian interpretation considers probability as a degree of belief and a reflection of the state of information to the best belief or knowledge of the decision maker. In the field of structural reliability, depending on the type of decision problem, probabilities are often referred to as nominal (or notional) measures of uncertainty to emphasize that these values are conditional on a model and available observations. Probabilistic methods then serve primarily to undertake the book-keeping required to assign probabilities to different possible outcomes or decisions in consistency with models, available observations and other relevant information. This paper discusses the background of these interpretations and the degree to which correspondence between reliability calculations and observations of failures can be expected and/or achieved. Recommendations corresponding to the JCSS line of thinking will be summarized in <span><span>Section 8</span></span>.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 102473"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140763725","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-01Epub Date: 2024-02-26DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102454
Dimitri V. Val , Carmen Andrade , Miroslav Sykora , Mark G. Stewart , Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga , Jan Mlcoch , Quynh Chau Truong , Charbel-Pierre El Soueidy
Reinforced concrete (RC) structures deteriorate over time which affects their strength and serviceability. To develop measures for protecting new RC structures against deterioration and assess the condition of existing RC structures subjected to deterioration an understanding of the deterioration processes and the ability to predict their development, including structural consequences, are essential. This problem has attracted significant attention from researchers, including those working in the area of structural reliability (in particular within the JCSS) since there are major uncertainties associated with the deterioration processes and their structural effects. The paper presents an overview of the probabilistic modelling of various deterioration processes affecting RC structures such as corrosion of reinforcing steel, freezing-thawing, alkali-aggregate reaction, sulphate attack and fatigue, and their structural implications, including the historical perspective and current state-of-the-art. It also addresses the issues related to the inspection/monitoring of deteriorating RC structures and the analysis of collected data taking into account relevant uncertainties. Examples illustrating the application of the presented probabilistic models are provided. Finally, the current gaps in the knowledge related to the problem, which require further attention, are discussed.
{"title":"Probabilistic modelling of deterioration of reinforced concrete structures","authors":"Dimitri V. Val , Carmen Andrade , Miroslav Sykora , Mark G. Stewart , Emilio Bastidas-Arteaga , Jan Mlcoch , Quynh Chau Truong , Charbel-Pierre El Soueidy","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102454","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102454","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Reinforced concrete (RC) structures deteriorate over time which affects their strength and serviceability. To develop measures for protecting new RC structures against deterioration and assess the condition of existing RC structures subjected to deterioration an understanding of the deterioration processes and the ability to predict their development, including structural consequences, are essential. This problem has attracted significant attention from researchers, including those working in the area of structural reliability (in particular within the JCSS) since there are major uncertainties associated with the deterioration processes and their structural effects. The paper presents an overview of the probabilistic modelling of various deterioration processes affecting RC structures such as corrosion of reinforcing steel, freezing-thawing, alkali-aggregate reaction, sulphate attack and fatigue, and their structural implications, including the historical perspective and current state-of-the-art. It also addresses the issues related to the inspection/monitoring of deteriorating RC structures and the analysis of collected data taking into account relevant uncertainties. Examples illustrating the application of the presented probabilistic models are provided. Finally, the current gaps in the knowledge related to the problem, which require further attention, are discussed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 102454"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140017468","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-01Epub Date: 2024-12-09DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102381
Mark G. Stewart , Sebastian Thöns , André T. Beck
Attacks on infrastructure have been a common feature of terrorism over many decades. The weapon of choice is often a Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) or a person-borne or other type of IED. The consequences of a successful attack in terms of casualties, physical damage, and other direct and indirect costs including societal costs can be catastrophic. Protectives and other risk reduction measures can ameliorate the threat likelihood, vulnerability or consequences. There is a need for a rational approach to deciding how best to protect infrastructure, and what not to protect. Hence, this paper describes a probabilistic risk assessment for the protection of infrastructure from explosive attacks. This includes a description of terrorist threats and hazards, vulnerability assessment including progressive or disproportionate collapse, and consequences assessment. Illustrative examples of the decision analysis consider the optimal risk reduction and design strategies for bridges and the progressive collapse of buildings.
{"title":"Assessment of risk reduction strategies for terrorist attacks on structures","authors":"Mark G. Stewart , Sebastian Thöns , André T. Beck","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102381","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2023.102381","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Attacks on infrastructure have been a common feature of terrorism over many decades. The weapon of choice is often a Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) or a person-borne or other type of IED. The consequences of a successful attack in terms of casualties, physical damage, and other direct and indirect costs including societal costs can be catastrophic. Protectives and other risk reduction measures can ameliorate the threat likelihood, vulnerability or consequences. There is a need for a rational approach to deciding how best to protect infrastructure, and what not to protect. Hence, this paper describes a probabilistic risk assessment for the protection of infrastructure from explosive attacks. This includes a description of terrorist threats and hazards, vulnerability assessment including progressive or disproportionate collapse, and consequences assessment. Illustrative examples of the decision analysis consider the optimal risk reduction and design strategies for bridges and the progressive collapse of buildings.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 102381"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143138979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-01Epub Date: 2024-05-10DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102481
Sebastian Thöns , Colin Caprani , Michael Havbro Faber , Dan M. Frangopol , Paolo Gardoni , Pier Francesco Giordano , Daniel Honfi , Leandro Iannacone , Mohammad Shihabuddin Khan , Jochen Köhler , Sunyong Kim , Nico de Koker , Maria Pina Limongelli , Simona Miraglia , Jannie Sønderkær Nielsen , Mahesh Pandey , Celeste Viljoen
This paper addresses value of information, structural health information, and decision analyses in built environment engineering. Decision analyses are used for the joint optimization of information collection and the identification of physical measures for the management and enhancement of the expected utility of built environment systems. To these ends, this paper contains (1) principal descriptions of decision scenarios and the model basis in conjunction with the objective functions, embedded in (a) a summary of the historical background and (b) the origins of the methods of decision and value of information analyses, (2) an overview of methods for decision analyses highlighting solution strategies to handle comprehensiveness and computational challenges, (3) principal application areas and case studies, and (4) insights into recent advances. The main insights and an outreach to potential future research perspectives are summarised at the end of this paper.
{"title":"On information value and decision analyses","authors":"Sebastian Thöns , Colin Caprani , Michael Havbro Faber , Dan M. Frangopol , Paolo Gardoni , Pier Francesco Giordano , Daniel Honfi , Leandro Iannacone , Mohammad Shihabuddin Khan , Jochen Köhler , Sunyong Kim , Nico de Koker , Maria Pina Limongelli , Simona Miraglia , Jannie Sønderkær Nielsen , Mahesh Pandey , Celeste Viljoen","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102481","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102481","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper addresses value of information, structural health information, and decision analyses in built environment engineering. Decision analyses are used for the joint optimization of information collection and the identification of physical measures for the management and enhancement of the expected utility of built environment systems. To these ends, this paper contains (1) principal descriptions of decision scenarios and the model basis in conjunction with the objective functions, embedded in (a) a summary of the historical background and (b) the origins of the methods of decision and value of information analyses, (2) an overview of methods for decision analyses highlighting solution strategies to handle comprehensiveness and computational challenges, (3) principal application areas and case studies, and (4) insights into recent advances. The main insights and an outreach to potential future research perspectives are summarised at the end of this paper.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 102481"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141047478","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2025-03-01Epub Date: 2024-03-29DOI: 10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102469
Niels Peter Høj , Inger Birgitte Kroon , Jannie Sønderkær Nielsen , Matthias Schubert
Since its foundation, the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS) has been engaged in the discussion of methods for determining the reliability of components, calibration of standards, as well as risk modelling of systems. In publications, it is regularly explained which methods have which advantages. In the literature, the drawbacks and pitfalls that challenge rational decisions and help to develop and find more appropriate methods for practice are often not documented.
Such problems can lead to decisions, which are not rational from a decision-theoretic point of view, some of which are worse than a random decision. Especially events, with a very small probability of occurrence hardly give any feedback possibilities from reality and evidence-based analysis of decisions is not possible. Careful selection of methods and knowledge/information of the assumptions is crucial to rational decisions.
This paper will discuss some of the identified pitfalls based on the discussions in the JCSS. It will span from aspects in the uncertainty quantification, uncertainty propagation, consequence assessment as well as approaches that are found and used in practice for decision-making (e.g. probability interpretations, risk aversion, risk matrices and FN diagrams). This paper can be seen as a documentation of outtakes from the discussions which led to the joint understanding and approach of the JCSS. The paper does not claim to be complete concerning all the possible pitfalls in risk assessments and system identification. But it does provide important reflections and indicates where the eyes must be kept open. Further, the paper points to a way of rational decision-making accounting for the uncertainties in information.
{"title":"System risk modelling and decision-making – Reflections and common pitfalls","authors":"Niels Peter Høj , Inger Birgitte Kroon , Jannie Sønderkær Nielsen , Matthias Schubert","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102469","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102469","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Since its foundation, the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS) has been engaged in the discussion of methods for determining the reliability of components, calibration of standards, as well as risk modelling of systems. In publications, it is regularly explained which methods have which advantages. In the literature, the drawbacks and pitfalls that challenge rational decisions and help to develop and find more appropriate methods for practice are often not documented.</div><div>Such problems can lead to decisions, which are not rational from a decision-theoretic point of view, some of which are worse than a random decision. Especially events, with a very small probability of occurrence hardly give any feedback possibilities from reality and evidence-based analysis of decisions is not possible. Careful selection of methods and knowledge/information of the assumptions is crucial to rational decisions.</div><div>This paper will discuss some of the identified pitfalls based on the discussions in the JCSS. It will span from aspects in the uncertainty quantification, uncertainty propagation, consequence assessment as well as approaches that are found and used in practice for decision-making (e.g. probability interpretations, risk aversion, risk matrices and FN diagrams). This paper can be seen as a documentation of outtakes from the discussions which led to the joint understanding and approach of the JCSS. The paper does not claim to be complete concerning all the possible pitfalls in risk assessments and system identification. But it does provide important reflections and indicates where the eyes must be kept open. Further, the paper points to a way of rational decision-making accounting for the uncertainties in information.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 102469"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140403415","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Concrete is one of the most widely used materials in civil and infrastructure engineering in the world, just following water. Therefore, the serviceability and safety of concrete structures are of paramount importance. The modeling of mechanical properties of concrete and the uncertainty quantification are the two cornerstones for reliability evaluation and rational design decision of concrete structures. In the past 50 years, extensive endeavors have been devoted to these two aspects and great progresses have been made. In the present paper, investigations of and advances in mechanical and probabilistic modeling of concrete are reviewed, including the constitutive law of concrete material, the uncertainty quantification of parameters and constitutive laws of concrete, the nonlinear analysis of concrete structures, and the modeling of concrete properties in the design codes including the JCSS Probabilistic Model Code, fib Model Code, Chinese standard and Eurocodes. In particular, the transitions from uni-axial to multi-axial constitutive law, from probability distribution of major parameters and empirical relationship between parameters to full probabilistic quantification of the constitutive law of concrete, and from structural nonlinear analysis based on component internal force vs. deformation restoring force relationship to the framework based on continuum mechanics involving constitutive law are stressed.
{"title":"Recent developments in mechanical and uncertainty modelling of concrete","authors":"Jianbing Chen , Xiaodan Ren , De-Cheng Feng , Jochen Kohler , John Dalsgaard Sørensen , Jian-Ying Wu , Jia-Liang Le , Robby Caspeele","doi":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102526","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.strusafe.2024.102526","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Concrete is one of the most widely used materials in civil and infrastructure engineering in the world, just following water. Therefore, the serviceability and safety of concrete structures are of paramount importance. The modeling of mechanical properties of concrete and the uncertainty quantification are the two cornerstones for reliability evaluation and rational design decision of concrete structures. In the past 50 years, extensive endeavors have been devoted to these two aspects and great progresses have been made. In the present paper, investigations of and advances in mechanical and probabilistic modeling of concrete are reviewed, including the constitutive law of concrete material, the uncertainty quantification of parameters and constitutive laws of concrete, the nonlinear analysis of concrete structures, and the modeling of concrete properties in the design codes including the JCSS Probabilistic Model Code, fib Model Code, Chinese standard and Eurocodes. In particular, the transitions from uni-axial to multi-axial constitutive law, from probability distribution of major parameters and empirical relationship between parameters to full probabilistic quantification of the constitutive law of concrete, and from structural nonlinear analysis based on component internal force vs. deformation restoring force relationship to the framework based on continuum mechanics involving constitutive law are stressed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":21978,"journal":{"name":"Structural Safety","volume":"113 ","pages":"Article 102526"},"PeriodicalIF":5.7,"publicationDate":"2025-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143138980","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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