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Asymptotic properties of a nonparametric conditional density estimator in the local linear estimation for functional data via a functional single-index model 非参数条件密度估计量在泛函单指标模型的局部线性估计中的渐近性质
IF 0.5 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-09-02 DOI: 10.1080/24754269.2021.1965945
Fadila Benaissa, Abdelmalek Gagui, Abdelhak Chouaf
This paper deals with the conditional density estimator of a real response variable given a functional random variable (i.e., takes values in an infinite-dimensional space). Specifically, we focus on the functional index model, and this approach represents a good compromise between nonparametric and parametric models. Then we give under general conditions and when the variables are independent, the quadratic error and asymptotic normality of estimator by local linear method, based on the single-index structure. Finally, we complete these theoretical advances by some simulation studies showing both the practical result of the local linear method and the good behaviour for finite sample sizes of the estimator and of the Monte Carlo methods to create functional pseudo-confidence area.
本文讨论了给定函数随机变量(即取无穷维空间中的值)的实响应变量的条件密度估计器。具体来说,我们关注的是函数指数模型,这种方法代表了非参数模型和参数模型之间的良好折衷。然后,在一般条件下,当变量独立时,基于单指标结构,用局部线性方法给出了估计量的二次误差和渐近正态性。最后,我们通过一些模拟研究完成了这些理论进展,显示了局部线性方法的实际结果,以及估计器和蒙特卡罗方法在有限样本量下创建函数伪置信区的良好性能。
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引用次数: 0
Empirical likelihood inference and goodness-of-fit test for logistic regression model under two-phase case-control sampling 两阶段病例对照抽样下logistic回归模型的经验似然推断和拟合优度检验
IF 0.5 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-07-08 DOI: 10.1080/24754269.2021.1946373
Z. Sheng, Yukun Liu, J. Qin
ABSTRACT Due to cost-effectiveness and high efficiency, two-phase case-control sampling has been widely used in epidemiology studies. We develop a semi-parametric empirical likelihood approach to two-phase case-control data under the logistic regression model. We show that the maximum empirical likelihood estimator has an asymptotically normal distribution, and the empirical likelihood ratio follows an asymptotically central chi-square distribution. We find that the maximum empirical likelihood estimator is equal to Breslow and Holubkov (1997)'s maximum likelihood estimator. Even so, the limiting distribution of the likelihood ratio, likelihood-ratio-based interval, and test are all new. Furthermore, we construct new Kolmogorov–Smirnov type goodness-of-fit tests to test the validation of the underlying logistic regression model. Our simulation results and a real application show that the likelihood-ratio-based interval and test have certain merits over the Wald-type counterparts and that the proposed goodness-of-fit test is valid.
摘要两阶段病例对照抽样由于具有成本效益和高效性,在流行病学研究中得到了广泛应用。我们在逻辑回归模型下对两阶段病例对照数据开发了一种半参数经验似然方法。我们证明了最大经验似然估计具有渐近正态分布,并且经验似然比遵循渐近中心卡方分布。我们发现最大经验似然估计量等于Breslow和Holubkov(1997)的最大似然估计量。即便如此,似然比的极限分布、基于似然比的区间和测试都是新的。此外,我们构建了新的Kolmogorov–Smirnov型拟合优度检验,以检验底层逻辑回归模型的有效性。我们的仿真结果和实际应用表明,基于似然比的区间和检验与Wald型区间和检验相比具有一定的优点,并且所提出的拟合优度检验是有效的。
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引用次数: 0
Bayesian analysis for quantile smoothing spline 分位数平滑样条的贝叶斯分析
IF 0.5 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-07-06 DOI: 10.1080/24754269.2021.1946372
Zhongheng Cai, Dongchu Sun
In Bayesian quantile smoothing spline [Thompson, P., Cai, Y., Moyeed, R., Reeve, D., & Stander, J. (2010). Bayesian nonparametric quantile regression using splines. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, 54, 1138–1150.], a fixed-scale parameter in the asymmetric Laplace likelihood tends to result in misleading fitted curves. To solve this problem, we propose a new Bayesian quantile smoothing spline (NBQSS), which considers a random scale parameter. To begin with, we justify its objective prior options by establishing one sufficient and one necessary condition of the posterior propriety under two classes of general priors including the invariant prior for the scale component. We then develop partially collapsed Gibbs sampling to facilitate the computation. Out of a practical concern, we extend the theoretical results to NBQSS with unobserved knots. Finally, simulation studies and two real data analyses reveal three main findings. Firstly, NBQSS usually outperforms other competing curve fitting methods. Secondly, NBQSS considering unobserved knots behaves better than the NBQSS without unobserved knots in terms of estimation accuracy and precision. Thirdly, NBQSS is robust to possible outliers and could provide accurate estimation.
在贝叶斯分位数平滑样条[Thompson,P.,Cai,Y.,Moyed,R.,Reeve,D.,&Stander,J.(2010)。使用样条的贝叶斯非参数分位数回归。计算统计学和数据分析,541138–1150。]中,非对称拉普拉斯似然中的固定尺度参数往往会导致误导性拟合曲线。为了解决这个问题,我们提出了一种新的贝叶斯分位数平滑样条(NBQSS),它考虑了一个随机尺度参数。首先,我们通过在两类一般先验(包括尺度分量的不变先验)下建立后验适当性的一个充分和一个必要条件来证明其客观先验选项。然后,我们开发了部分坍塌的吉布斯采样,以便于计算。出于实际考虑,我们将理论结果推广到具有未观测结的NBQSS。最后,通过模拟研究和两次真实数据分析,揭示了三个主要发现。首先,NBQSS通常优于其他竞争性的曲线拟合方法。其次,考虑未观测节点的NBQSS在估计精度和精度方面优于不考虑未观测结的NBQSS。第三,NBQSS对可能的异常值具有鲁棒性,可以提供准确的估计。
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引用次数: 2
Editorial Foreword 编辑前言
IF 0.5 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-07-03 DOI: 10.1080/24754269.2021.1963398
Jun Shao, Yincai Tang
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引用次数: 0
A new exact p-value approach for testing variance homogeneity 检验方差齐性的精确p值新方法
IF 0.5 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-04-22 DOI: 10.1080/24754269.2021.1907519
Juan Wang, Xinmin Li, Huasu Liang
To test variance homogeneity, various likelihood-ratio based tests such as the Bartlett's test have been proposed. The null distributions of these tests were generally derived asymptotically or approximately. We re-examine the restrictive maximum likelihood ratio (RELR) statistic, and suggest a Monte Carlo algorithm to compute its exact null distribution, and so its p-value. It is much easier to implement than most existing methods. Simulation studies indicate that the proposed procedure is also superior to its competitors in terms of type I error and powers. We analyse an environmental dataset for an illustration.
为了检验方差的同质性,人们提出了各种基于似然比的检验,如Bartlett检验。这些检验的零分布一般是渐近或近似地推导出来的。我们重新研究了限制性最大似然比(RELR)统计量,并提出了一种蒙特卡罗算法来计算其精确的零分布,从而计算其p值。它比大多数现有方法更容易实现。仿真研究表明,该算法在I型误差和功率方面也优于同类算法。我们分析一个环境数据集来举例说明。
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引用次数: 1
Empirical likelihood inference in autoregressive models with time-varying variances 时变方差自回归模型中的经验似然推理
IF 0.5 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-04-22 DOI: 10.1080/24754269.2021.1913977
Yu Han, Chunming Zhang
This paper develops the empirical likelihood ( ) inference procedure for parameters in autoregressive models with the error variances scaled by an unknown nonparametric time-varying function. Compared with existing methods based on non-parametric and semi-parametric estimation, the proposed test statistic avoids estimating the variance function, while maintaining the asymptotic chi-square distribution under the null. Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed procedure (a) is more stable, i.e., depending less on the change points in the error variances, and (b) gets closer to the desired confidence level, than the traditional test statistic.
本文发展了误差方差由未知非参数时变函数缩放的自回归模型中参数的经验似然推理过程。与现有的基于非参数和半参数估计的方法相比,所提出的检验统计量避免了对方差函数的估计,同时保持了零下的渐近卡方分布。仿真研究表明,与传统的测试统计相比,所提出的程序(a)更稳定,即更少地依赖于误差方差的变化点,并且(b)更接近所需的置信水平。
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引用次数: 1
Sample size and power analysis for stepped wedge cluster randomised trials with binary outcomes 二元结果阶梯楔形聚类随机试验的样本量和功效分析
IF 0.5 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/24754269.2021.1904094
Jijia Wang, Jing Cao, Song Zhang, C. Ahn
In stepped wedge cluster randomised trials (SW-CRTs), clusters of subjects are randomly assigned to sequences, where they receive a specific order of treatments. Compared to conventional cluster randomised studies, one unique feature of SW-CRTs is that all clusters start from control and gradually transition to intervention according to the randomly assigned sequences. This feature mitigates the ethical concern of withholding an effective treatment and reduces the logistic burden of implementing the intervention at multiple clusters simultaneously. This feature, however, presents challenges that need to be addressed in experimental design and data analysis, i.e., missing data due to prolonged follow-up and complicated correlation structures that involve between-subject and longitudinal correlations. In this study, based on the generalised estimating equation (GEE) approach, we present a closed-form sample size formula for SW-CRTs with a binary outcome, which offers great flexibility to account for unbalanced randomisation, missing data, and arbitrary correlation structures. We also present a correction approach to address the issue of under-estimated variance by GEE estimator when the sample size is small. Simulation studies and application to a real clinical trial are presented.
在阶梯楔形群随机试验(SW-CRT)中,受试者群被随机分配到序列中,在那里他们接受特定的治疗顺序。与传统的集群随机研究相比,SW CRT的一个独特特征是,所有集群都从控制开始,并根据随机分配的序列逐渐过渡到干预。这一特点减轻了拒绝有效治疗的伦理问题,并减轻了在多个集群同时实施干预的后勤负担。然而,这一特征带来了实验设计和数据分析中需要解决的挑战,即由于长期随访和涉及受试者之间和纵向相关性的复杂相关性结构而导致的数据缺失。在这项研究中,基于广义估计方程(GEE)方法,我们提出了一个具有二元结果的SW CRT的闭合形式样本量公式,该公式提供了很大的灵活性来解释不平衡随机性、数据缺失和任意相关结构。我们还提出了一种校正方法来解决样本量较小时GEE估计器估计方差不足的问题。介绍了模拟研究及其在实际临床试验中的应用。
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引用次数: 1
Combinatorial testing: using blocking to assign test cases for validating complex software systems 组合测试:使用块来分配测试用例,以验证复杂的软件系统
IF 0.5 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/24754269.2021.1904095
R. Lekivetz, Joseph Morgan
Testing complex software systems is an extraordinarily difficult task. Test engineers are faced with the challenging prospect of ensuring that a software system satisfies its requirements while working within a strict budget. Choosing a test suite for such an endeavour can be framed as a design of experiments problem. Combinatorial testing is a software testing methodology that may be viewed as a design of experiments approach to addressing the software testing challenge. We extend this methodology by introducing the concept of blocking factors for a test suite. We provide an example, using an open source software library, to illustrate our extension. Advantages of considering blocks are discussed, both in the design as well as after test execution, when fault localisation may be necessary.
测试复杂的软件系统是一项极其困难的任务。测试工程师面临着在严格的预算范围内确保软件系统满足其需求的挑战。为这样的尝试选择一个测试套件可以被框定为一个实验设计问题。组合测试是一种软件测试方法,可以看作是解决软件测试挑战的实验设计方法。我们通过为测试套件引入阻塞因素的概念来扩展这个方法。我们提供一个使用开源软件库的示例来说明我们的扩展。在设计和测试执行后,当可能需要进行故障定位时,讨论了考虑块的优点。
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引用次数: 0
Robust sequential design for piecewise-stationary multi-armed bandit problem in the presence of outliers 存在异常值的分段平稳多臂盗匪问题的鲁棒序列设计
IF 0.5 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-04-03 DOI: 10.1080/24754269.2021.1902687
Yaping Wang, Zhicheng Peng, Riquan Zhang, Qian Xiao
ABSTRACT The multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem studies the sequential decision making in the presence of uncertainty and partial feedback on rewards. Its name comes from imagining a gambler at a row of slot machines who needs to decide the best strategy on the number of times as well as the orders to play each machine. It is a classic reinforcement learning problem which is fundamental to many online learning problems. In many practical applications of the MAB, the reward distributions may change at unknown time steps and the outliers (extreme rewards) often exist. Current sequential design strategies may struggle in such cases, as they tend to infer additional change points to fit the outliers. In this paper, we propose a robust change-detection upper confidence bound (RCD-UCB) algorithm which can distinguish the real change points from the outliers in piecewise-stationary MAB settings. We show that the proposed RCD-UCB algorithm can achieve a nearly optimal regret bound on the order of , where T is the number of time steps, K is the number of arms and S is the number of stationary segments. We demonstrate its superior performance compared to some state-of-the-art algorithms in both simulation experiments and real data analysis. (See https://github.com/woaishufenke/MAB_STRF.git for the codes used in this paper.)
摘要多武装土匪(MAB)问题研究了在存在不确定性和部分回报反馈的情况下的序列决策。它的名字来源于想象一个赌徒在一排老虎机旁,他需要根据玩每台老虎机的次数和顺序来决定最佳策略。这是一个经典的强化学习问题,是许多在线学习问题的基础。在MAB的许多实际应用中,奖励分布可能在未知的时间步长发生变化,并且经常存在异常值(极端奖励)。当前的顺序设计策略在这种情况下可能会遇到困难,因为它们倾向于推断出额外的变化点来适应异常值。在本文中,我们提出了一种鲁棒的变化检测置信上限(RCD-UCB)算法,该算法可以区分分段平稳MAB设置中的真实变化点和异常值。我们证明了所提出的RCD-UCB算法可以实现数量级的近似最优后悔界,其中T是时间步长的数量,K是臂的数量,S是静止段的数量。在模拟实验和实际数据分析中,我们展示了它与一些最先进的算法相比的优越性能。(请参见https://github.com/woaishufenke/MAB_STRF.git对于本文中使用的代码。)
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引用次数: 1
A prediction-oriented optimal design for visualisation recommender systems 面向预测的可视化推荐系统优化设计
IF 0.5 Q3 STATISTICS & PROBABILITY Pub Date : 2021-03-30 DOI: 10.1080/24754269.2021.1905376
Yingyan Zeng, Xinwei Deng, Xiaoyu Chen, R. Jin
A good visualisation method can greatly enhance human-machine collaboration in target contexts. To aid the optimal selection of visualisations for users, visualisation recommender systems have been developed to provide the right visualisation method to the right person given specific contexts. A visualisation recommender system often relies on a user study to collect data and conduct analysis to provide personalised recommendations. However, a user study without employing an effective experimental design is typically expensive in terms of time and cost. In this work, we propose a prediction-oriented optimal design to determine the user-task allocation in the user study for the recommendation of visualisation methods. The proposed optimal design will not only encourage the learning of the similarity embedded in the recommendation responses (i.e., users' preference), but also improve the modelling accuracy of the similarities captured by the covariates of contexts (i.e., task attributes). A simulation study and a real-data case study are used to evaluate the proposed optimal design.
一个好的可视化方法可以极大地增强目标环境中的人机协作。为了帮助用户进行最佳的可视化选择,可视化推荐系统已经被开发出来,以便在特定的环境中为合适的人提供正确的可视化方法。可视化推荐系统通常依赖于用户研究来收集数据并进行分析以提供个性化推荐。然而,没有采用有效的实验设计的用户研究在时间和成本方面通常是昂贵的。在这项工作中,我们提出了一个面向预测的优化设计,以确定用户研究中的用户任务分配,以推荐可视化方法。所提出的优化设计不仅鼓励对推荐响应中嵌入的相似性(即用户偏好)的学习,而且还提高了上下文协变量(即任务属性)捕获的相似性的建模精度。通过仿真研究和实际案例分析对所提出的优化设计进行了评价。
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引用次数: 2
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Statistical Theory and Related Fields
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