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Examining the Factors Influencing the Level of Circular Economy Adoption in Agriculture: Insights from Vietnam 研究影响农业采用循环经济水平的因素:越南的启示
Pub Date : 2024-03-29 DOI: 10.36956/rwae.v5i1.992
The Kien Nguyen, Nguyen Thi Minh Khue, Quang Phu Tran, Nguyen Thi Quynh Anh, Le Khanh Cuong, Nguyen Chu Du, Chu Viet Cuong, Vũ Thị Thương, Dang Hoang Anh, Nguyen Anh Vu
The development of a circular economy in agricultural production has become a trend for many countries, especially as global natural resources worldwide are increasingly depleting. Therefore, the economic model transition to address the challenge of balancing economic growth and environmental protection, in general, and the plan for agricultural production development, in particular, is highly necessary. In this study, the authors examine the factors influencing the level of circular economy application in agriculture in Vietnam. The research employs a survey method using questionnaires to collect data from individuals and households engaged in the agriculture sector in Vietnam. Out of the 500 distributed questionnaires, 421 valid responses were collected. The influencing factors will be measured using a Likert scale, and to assess their reliability, the authors used Cronbach’s Alpha and inter-item correlation coefficients. To test the research hypotheses, the Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) method is utilized. The results reveal that among the factors included in the principal component analysis, financial factors have the strongest influence, followed by technological application, awareness, production scale, and finally, government policies. In summary, this study sheds light on the importance of various factors influencing the adoption of circular economy practices in agriculture. It can provide valuable information to policymakers, enabling them to make informed macro and micro-level decisions aimed at increasing the proportion of businesses applying circular economy principles in agricultural production.
发展农业生产循环经济已成为许多国家的趋势,尤其是在全球自然资源日益枯竭的情况下。因此,极有必要进行经济模式转型,以应对经济增长与环境保护之间的平衡挑战,特别是农业生产发展计划。在本研究中,作者探讨了影响越南农业循环经济应用水平的因素。研究采用问卷调查法,从越南农业部门的个人和家庭中收集数据。在发放的 500 份问卷中,共收集到 421 份有效答卷。影响因素将使用李克特量表进行测量,为评估其可靠性,作者使用了克朗巴赫阿尔法和项目间相关系数。为了检验研究假设,作者采用了结构方程模型(SEM)方法。结果显示,在主成分分析所包含的因素中,财务因素的影响最大,其次是技术应用、意识、生产规模,最后是政府政策。总之,本研究揭示了影响农业采用循环经济做法的各种因素的重要性。它可以为政策制定者提供有价值的信息,使他们能够做出明智的宏观和微观决策,从而提高在农业生产中应用循环经济原则的企业比例。
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引用次数: 0
Machinery Adoption and Its Effect on Maize Productivity among Smallholder Farmers in Western Kenya: Evidence from the Chisel Harrow Tillage Practice 肯尼亚西部小农采用机械及其对玉米生产率的影响:来自凿耙耕作法的证据
Pub Date : 2024-01-11 DOI: 10.36956/rwae.v5i1.983
Edwin Mumah, Yangfen Chen, Yu Hong, D. Okello
A major component of contemporary agriculture is machinery. Nonetheless, in Kenya and other African nations, the rate of adoption of agricultural machinery remains quite low. Understanding the fundamental causes and their impacts on agricultural output is crucial. Using data collected from a household survey of 1,499 farmers in Western Kenya, this study employed the endogenous switching regression model to examine the use of chisel harrows and their effects on maize production. Results show that the adoption of the chisel harrow was positively impacted by factors such as farm size, credit accessibility, gender, extension contact, and education attainment, while factors such as age and market proximity had a negative impact. The yield per hectare was higher for adopters than for non-adopters. According to the counterfactual analysis results, those who utilized chisel harrow tools were able to achieve a higher yield (1512 kg/ha) than they would have if they had not used the equipment (1099 kg/ha). The average maize yield per hectare increased by 413 kg and 217 kg for adopters and non-adopters, respectively, when chisel harrows were used. It is concluded that while training and field demonstrations may also be held to increase farmers’ understanding of the benefits of the chisel harrow, encouraging farmers to adopt the tool has the potential to improve low production in the surveyed regions.
机械是当代农业的主要组成部分。然而,在肯尼亚和其他非洲国家,农业机械的采用率仍然很低。了解其根本原因及其对农业产出的影响至关重要。本研究利用从肯尼亚西部 1,499 名农民的家庭调查中收集的数据,采用内生转换回归模型来研究凿耙的使用及其对玉米产量的影响。结果显示,农场规模、信贷可得性、性别、推广联系人和受教育程度等因素对凿耙的采用产生了积极影响,而年龄和市场远近等因素则产生了消极影响。采用犁耙的农户的每公顷产量高于未采用犁耙的农户。根据反事实分析结果,使用凿耙工具的农户的产量(1512 千克/公顷)高于不使用该设备的农户(1099 千克/公顷)。使用凿耙后,采用者和未采用者的平均玉米产量分别增加了 413 公斤和 217 公斤。结论是,虽然也可以通过培训和实地示范来提高农民对凿耙益处的认识,但鼓励农民采用该工具有可能提高调查地区的低产量。
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引用次数: 0
Determining Economic Optimum Soil Sampling Density for Potassium Fertilizer Management in Soybean: A Case Study in the U.S. Mid-South 确定大豆钾肥管理的最佳经济土壤采样密度:美国中南部案例研究
Pub Date : 2023-12-29 DOI: 10.36956/rwae.v4i4.985
Bayarbat Badarch, Michael P. Popp, Aurelie M. Poncet, Shelby T. Rider, N. Slaton
Determining the number of samples to collect in a field to develop soil-test K (STK) maps that are sufficiently accurate for profit-maximizing fertilizer rate prescription maps is complex. The decision also hinges on the application method—variable rate or uniform rate (VRT vs. URT). Using a 400 m2 fishnet grid on a 26.3-ha irrigated soybean field, the authors compared sampling densities ranging from 5 to 60 samples or 5.3 ha/sample to 0.40 ha/sample. Subsequently, the authors simulated yields based on STK maps generated with that range of samples taken to generate i) associated profit-maximizing fertilizer-K rates (K*) that varied by grid with VRT, or ii) a single fertilizer rate based on field-average STK with URT, to compare revenue less fertilizer cost (NR) across VRT, URT, and sampling strategy. With more information, NR increased at a diminishing rate as crop needs could be better matched to fertilizer needs with greater detail in STK maps with VRT. Also, fertilizer use with URT was higher than VRT given the field-specific distribution of STK. Regardless of the sampling strategy, NR was higher for VRT than URT, however, that benefit was smaller than the upcharges for VRT equipment. Marginal benefits from added soil sampling were smaller than their marginal cost leading to an optimal least-cost, 5-sample strategy and URT. Changing one of the 5 sampling locations, however, revealed unreliable field average STK estimates. Since soil samples inform about several macronutrients, splitting soil sampling charges across K and P profitably justified sampling near every 1.5 ha with URT.
要绘制出足够精确的土壤测试钾(STK)图,以实现利润最大化的施肥量处方图,确定在田间采集样本的数量非常复杂。这一决定还取决于施肥方法--变量施肥还是均匀施肥(VRT 与 URT)。作者在一块 26.3 公顷的灌溉大豆田中使用 400 平方米的鱼网网格,比较了 5 到 60 个样本或 5.3 公顷/样本到 0.40 公顷/样本的取样密度。随后,作者根据取样范围内的 STK 图模拟产量,以生成 i) 相关的利润最大化肥料-K 率 (K*),该肥料-K 率随 VRT 的网格变化而变化;或 ii) 基于田间平均 STK 的单一肥料率,该肥料率随 URT 的变化而变化,以比较不同 VRT、URT 和取样策略下的收入减去肥料成本 (NR)。随着信息量的增加,NR 的增加速度也在减慢,因为使用 VRT 时,作物需求与 STK 地图中更详细的肥料需求可以更好地匹配。此外,鉴于 STK 在田间的具体分布情况,URT 的肥料用量要高于 VRT。无论采用哪种取样策略,VRT 的 NR 均高于 URT,但这一收益小于 VRT 设备的费用。增加土壤取样的边际收益小于其边际成本,因此采用成本最低的 5 个取样策略和 URT 是最优的。然而,改变 5 个取样点中的一个后,发现田间平均 STK 估算值并不可靠。由于土壤样本可提供多种宏量营养元素的信息,因此将 K 和 P 的土壤取样费用分开计算,每 1.5 公顷附近取样一次,并采用 URT,就能获利。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of Participation in Young Smart Farmer Program on Smallholder Farmers’ Income: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis 参与青年智慧农民计划对小农收入的影响:倾向得分匹配分析
Pub Date : 2023-12-08 DOI: 10.36956/rwae.v4i4.916
S. Poungchompu, Porntip Phuttachat
The increase of elderly workers in the agricultural sector will decrease productivity using traditional agriculture production which causes the reduction of income. The Young Smart Farmer program is one of the solutions to solve the problem by developing new generation farmers’ agricultural abilities replacing elderly farmers and creating incentives for the new generation to turn to agricultural occupation. Thus, this paper principally assessed the impact of the participation of young farmers in the YSF program on farm income and the determinants of the YSF program factor of young farmer’s participation in the YSF program. The total number of samplings is 340 comprising 210 participants and 130 non-participants in the YSF program of the northeast area of Thailand. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics and the propensity score matching approach to estimate the treatment effect of YSF participation on farm income among smallholder farmers. The results presented that the participants were younger with higher education, more experience and technology support, and had higher farm income compared to non-participants. The propensity scores matching results revealed a significant effect between farmer participation and farm income. The increase in farmers’ income from the participation of young smart farmers was estimated to be approximately 6758.59 $/year compared to non-participants of 3066.63 $/year. To encourage young people to participate more in the YSM program the government should provide more support that can stimulate the young farmers’ farming economic activities to improve their quality of living and be fully satisfied with their livelihood. Also, the government should encourage a strong network within the group which consequently increases knowledge sharing, technology, and agricultural activities from the production process to marketing.
农业部门老年工人的增加将降低传统农业生产的生产率,从而导致收入减少。“青年智慧农民”计划是通过培养新一代农民替代老农民的农业能力,并为新一代农民转向农业职业创造激励机制,来解决这一问题的方案之一。因此,本文主要评估青年农民参与YSF计划对农场收入的影响,以及YSF计划因素对青年农民参与YSF计划的决定因素。抽样总数为340个,其中210名参与者和130名非参与者参加了泰国东北地区的YSF计划。采用描述性统计和倾向得分匹配方法对数据进行分析,估计YSF参与对小农农场收入的处理效果。结果表明,与非参与者相比,参与者更年轻,受过高等教育,经验和技术支持更多,农业收入更高。倾向得分匹配结果显示农民参与与农场收入之间存在显著影响。据估计,年轻聪明农民的参与为农民增加的收入约为6758.59美元/年,而非参与者的收入为3066.63美元/年。为了鼓励年轻人更多地参与YSM计划,政府应该提供更多的支持,以刺激青年农民的农业经济活动,提高他们的生活质量,使他们对生活完全满意。此外,政府应鼓励该集团内部建立强大的网络,从而促进从生产过程到营销的知识共享、技术和农业活动。
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引用次数: 0
Understanding Factors of Households' Circular Economy Adoption to Facilitate Sustainable Development in an Emerging Country 了解新兴国家家庭采用循环经济促进可持续发展的因素
Pub Date : 2023-11-30 DOI: 10.36956/rwae.v4i4.911
Quang Phu Tran, The Kien Nguyen, Manh Cuong Dong
A shift from a linear economy to a circular economy can help participants (i.e., enterprises and households) to cut expenses, stabilize supply chains for the long term, and lower manufacturing and operating costs. Although the circular economy can benefit both the economy and the environment, this topic has still been under-studied in developing countries. More specifically, there has been little known about conditions and/or barriers for stakeholders in adopting a circular economy. In this regard, the authors conducted a study among Vietnamese households to improve the understanding of the factors (both drivers and impediments) of a circular economy adoption. Specifically, the authors employed a questionnaire-based survey approach to collect data from 473 households operating in the agricultural sector in the Red River Delta, Vietnam. The PLS-SEM method was performed to unravel the complicated relationship between circular economy adoption, organizational innovation, and income of agricultural households. The results showed that the adoption of circular economy is widely influenced by many factors in Vietnam. For example, technology has a negative impact on the level of circular economy adoption while policy and regulation, management, customer, and society have the opposite effect. Furthermore, organizational innovation played a fully mediating role between circular economy adoption and households’ income. The results of the study offer many policy implications for supporting and increasing the households’ circular economy adoption for further sustainable development in Vietnam and beyond.
从线性经济向循环经济转变可以帮助参与者(即企业和家庭)削减开支,长期稳定供应链,降低生产和运营成本。尽管循环经济对经济和环境都有利,但发展中国家对这一主题的研究仍然不足。更具体地说,人们对利益相关者采用循环经济的条件和/或障碍知之甚少。为此,作者在越南家庭中开展了一项研究,以加深对采用循环经济的各种因素(包括驱动因素和阻碍因素)的了解。具体而言,作者采用问卷调查法,从越南红河三角洲农业部门的 473 个家庭中收集数据。采用 PLS-SEM 方法来揭示采用循环经济、组织创新和农业家庭收入之间的复杂关系。结果表明,在越南,循环经济的采用受到许多因素的广泛影响。例如,技术对循环经济采用水平有负面影响,而政策法规、管理、客户和社会则有相反的影响。此外,组织创新在循环经济应用和家庭收入之间起到了充分的中介作用。研究结果为支持和提高家庭的循环经济采用水平,促进越南及其他地区的可持续发展提供了许多政策启示。
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引用次数: 0
Examining the Linkages of Technology Adoption Enablers in Context of Dairy Farming Using ISM-MICMAC Approach 利用 ISM-MICMAC 方法研究奶牛场技术采用促进因素之间的联系
Pub Date : 2023-11-17 DOI: 10.36956/rwae.v4i4.887
H. Kaushik, Rohit Rajwanshi
In the context of agribusiness, technology and innovation have led to major transformations in many countries. Precision dairy farming technologies enable cost optimization, quality control, waste reduction, achieving economies of scale, efficiency in dairy resource utilization, improvement in productivity, standardized processes, enhanced decision support system and overall farm management. Despite being an overall production-wise rich country, India’s dairy sector lacks in terms of yield per cattle, overall dairy farm output, effective herd management and lack of effective technology acceptance and implementation. With the help of NGT based outcome, this research is an attempt to showcase the enablers of technology adoption in dairy farming and how these enablers interact with each other in a hierarchical form using ISM methodology. Experience in the dairy business, competitive pressure and digital literacy were found as the most crucial and driving enablers. However, agreeableness and managerial interest were found as the most dependent enablers of technology adoption. The interpretations drawn from the model can help the decision makers, policy makers and farmers not only in India but can serve as the base for other nations dependent upon agriculture to understand the inter dependency among enablers and suggestions to plan and channel technology adoption by focusing upon critical ones.
在农业综合企业方面,技术和创新在许多国家带来了重大变革。精准奶牛养殖技术能够优化成本、控制质量、减少浪费、实现规模经济、提高奶牛资源利用效率、提高生产率、实现标准化流程、增强决策支持系统和整体牧场管理。尽管印度是一个总体产量丰富的国家,但其奶业在每头牛的产量、奶牛场的总体产出、有效的牛群管理以及缺乏有效的技术接受和实施方面都存在不足。在基于 NGT 结果的帮助下,本研究试图利用 ISM 方法展示奶牛场采用技术的有利因素,以及这些有利因素如何以分层的形式相互影响。研究发现,奶牛场经营经验、竞争压力和数字素养是最关键的推动因素。然而,合意度和管理兴趣被认为是技术采用的最大依赖性促进因素。从模型中得出的解释不仅可以帮助印度的决策者、政策制定者和农民,还可以作为其他依赖农业的国家的基础,帮助他们了解各种促进因素之间的相互依赖关系,并提出建议,通过关注关键因素来规划和引导技术的采用。
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引用次数: 0
Promotion of Improved Onion (Nafis Variety) Production Technology under Irrigated Conditions in Nyangatom District, Low Land Area of South Omo Zone 在南奥莫区低洼地尼扬阿托姆县推广灌溉条件下的改良洋葱(纳菲斯品种)生产技术
Pub Date : 2023-11-16 DOI: 10.36956/rwae.v4i4.898
Awoke Tadesse, Asmera Adicha, Atlaw Eshibel, Yibrah Geberemeskel, Anteneh Tadesse
Onion is an important cash crop that could enhance the income of agro-pastoralists in Nyangatom woreda as the area has huge potential for water availability from the Omo River and fertile land. However, access to improved onion variety is limited in the area. Thus, this study aimed to demonstrate the improved onion variety with its agronomic management in the production season. Onion growers were purposely selected and have taken training on onion production by using recommended doses of fertilizers, pesticides, irrigation, and suitable agronomic practices. Each agro-pastoralist covered 0.064 hectares of land by improved onion. The recorded data from the field experiment and agro-pastoral perceptions were analyzed through simple descriptive and preference ranking tools. From the result of the demonstration trial, the mean bulb yield of the improved onion (Nafis variety) was 125 qt/ha. The average return obtained from the sale of onion bulbs per hectare was 334,925 Ethiopian birr. Moreover, the benefit-to-cost ratio of improved onion production was 8.34:1, which indicates the benefits outweigh the costs, suggesting a positive return on improved onion production in the area. The agro-pastoralist’s preference further showed that the Nafis variety was the best one or superior to the local variety in terms of its high-yielding ability, dark green leaf color, medium bulb size, and market preference. Therefore, the authors suggest the respective government and non-government bodies to further promote improved onion in the area.
洋葱是一种重要的经济作物,可以提高尼扬加托姆县农牧民的收入,因为该地区拥有巨大的奥莫河供水潜力和肥沃的土地。然而,该地区获得改良洋葱品种的机会有限。因此,本研究旨在展示改良洋葱品种及其在生产季节的农艺管理。洋葱种植者是特意挑选出来的,他们接受了关于使用推荐剂量的化肥、农药、灌溉和适当农艺措施进行洋葱生产的培训。每个农牧民的改良洋葱种植面积为 0.064 公顷。通过简单的描述和偏好排序工具,对田间试验记录的数据和农牧民的看法进行了分析。从示范试验的结果来看,改良洋葱(纳菲斯品种)的平均球茎产量为 125 qt/ha。每公顷洋葱球茎的平均销售收益为 334,925 埃塞俄比亚比尔。此外,改良洋葱生产的收益成本比为 8.34:1,表明收益大于成本,表明该地区改良洋葱生产的收益为正。农牧民的偏好进一步表明,纳菲斯品种在高产能力、叶色深绿、球茎大小适中和市场偏好方面是最好的品种,甚至优于当地品种。因此,作者建议相关政府和非政府机构在该地区进一步推广改良洋葱。
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引用次数: 0
Technical and Economic Efficiency of Vine Pruning: Results of Experimental Trials of Some Cultivars of Grapevine Grown in Sicily and Determination of Break-even Point 葡萄修剪的技术经济效益:西西里岛葡萄品种试验结果及盈亏平衡点的测定
Pub Date : 2023-11-14 DOI: 10.36956/rwae.v4i4.931
Filippo Sgroi, Federico Modica
The research presents the results carried out on Sicilian viticulture in order to study the economic sustainability of the agricultural company. In particular, the author examined the operation of dry pruning and tying of the fruiting head in espalier vineyards with tools that facilitate the work. The economic analysis highlights that equipping yourself with mechanical tools that facilitate work is convenient for both large and small wineries. The results of the research highlight that the investment to facilitate pruning and tying in Guyot-trained vineyards can also be made by wine-growing companies and is increasingly convenient as the area under vines involved increases.
为了研究农业公司的经济可持续性,本研究介绍了在西西里葡萄种植上进行的研究结果。特别是,作者研究了埃斯帕利耶葡萄园的干修剪和结果头的操作,这些工具有助于这项工作。经济分析强调,为自己配备方便工作的机械工具对大型和小型酿酒厂都很方便。研究结果强调,在经过盖尤特培训的葡萄园中,投资于修剪和捆绑也可以由葡萄酒种植公司进行,而且随着葡萄园面积的增加,投资也越来越方便。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) Change and Factors Affecting Agricultural Land: Case Study in Battambang Province, Cambodia 土地利用和土地覆盖变化及其影响因素评估:以柬埔寨马德望省为例
Pub Date : 2023-11-03 DOI: 10.36956/rwae.v4i4.925
Taingaung Sourn, Sophak Pok, Phanith Chou, Nareth Nut, Dyna Theng, Lyhour Hin
This study analyzed land use and land cover (LULC) change from 1998 to 2018 in Battambang, Cambodia, and determined factors and constraints affecting agricultural production. Landsat satellite images in 1998, 2008, and 2018 were used to identify the changes in LULC. In combination, a social survey was conducted in August 2021 using purposive sampling, selecting a total sample of 200 from two wealth classes: the poor (65) and the better off (135) based on the Cambodia poverty assessment by the World Bank, from uplands to lowlands of Battambang Province, Cambodia. Household characteristics, farm size, and constraints were compared between the classes. T-tests, the analysis of variance (ANOVA), and Likert scale analysis were adopted using the R Program and RStudio, while Pearson's correlation test was used to determine the factors affecting agricultural land. The results show that between 1998 and 2018, the forest cover decreased by 79%. In contrast, agricultural land expansion was the highest (54%). The average household size and age of the respondents were 5.0 persons/household and 50.1 years, respectively. Of all the interviewees, about 80% attended no higher than primary school. The total farm size of the better-off (7.0 ha/household) was larger than that of the poor (5.2 ha/household). The population growth, machinery use, and improved infrastructure were found to be positive and strongly related to agricultural land use. The highest constraints of the poor and the better-off households were the same: chemical fertilizer use. Then, drought and flooding were also challenges for all. In terms of land, credit, and labor, they were not the main constraints. Thus, it is recommended that the involvement of interdisciplinary stakeholders and policy frameworks is really important from both biophysical and social perspectives.
本研究分析了1998 - 2018年柬埔寨马德望土地利用和土地覆盖(LULC)的变化,并确定了影响农业生产的因素和制约因素。利用1998年、2008年和2018年的陆地卫星图像来确定LULC的变化。综合而言,我们于2021年8月进行了一项社会调查,采用有目的抽样,根据世界银行的柬埔寨贫困评估,从柬埔寨马德望省的高地到低地,从穷人(65人)和富人(135人)两个财富阶层中选择了200人的总样本。对不同阶层的家庭特征、农场规模和限制条件进行了比较。采用R Program和RStudio进行t检验、方差分析(ANOVA)和Likert量表分析,并采用Pearson相关检验确定影响农用地的因素。结果表明,1998年至2018年间,森林覆盖率下降了79%。相比之下,农业用地扩张最高(54%)。受访者的平均家庭人数及年龄分别为5.0人/户及50.1岁。在所有受访者中,约80%的人只上过小学。富裕家庭的农场总面积(7.0公顷/户)大于贫困家庭(5.2公顷/户)。研究发现,人口增长、机械使用和基础设施改善与农业用地利用呈正相关。贫困家庭和富裕家庭面临的最大限制是相同的:化肥的使用。当时,干旱和洪水也是所有人面临的挑战。在土地、信贷和劳动力方面,它们并不是主要的制约因素。因此,从生物物理和社会的角度来看,建议跨学科利益相关者和政策框架的参与非常重要。
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引用次数: 0
Comparative Analysis of Price Forecasting Models for Garlic (Allium sativum L.) in Kota District of Rajasthan, India 印度拉贾斯坦邦Kota地区大蒜价格预测模型的比较分析
Pub Date : 2023-10-16 DOI: 10.36956/rwae.v4i4.915
Surjeet Singh Dhaka, None Urmila, Dharavath Poolsingh
Garlic is a well-known spice in India, and Rajasthan is the country's second-largest producer of garlic after Madhya Pradesh. Accurate price predictions are crucial for agricultural commodities, as they significantly impact the accessibility of food for consumers and the livelihoods of farmers, governments, and agribusiness industries. Governments also use these forecasts to support the agricultural sector and ensure food security. A study was conducted in Rajasthan's Kota district to analyze the wholesale price of garlic using data from July 2021 to July 2023 from the Kota fruit and vegetable market. The study used simple moving average (SMA), simple exponential smoothing (SES), and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to forecast garlic prices. The models were validated through mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean squared error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (r), and coefficient of variation (CV). The research was conducted utilizing Microsoft Excel and R Studio version 4.2.2 for Windows, and the results showed that the ARIMA (1,0,0) with a non-zero mean model had a strong correlation coefficient (r = 0.91**) and accurately predicted the variation in garlic prices. Based on the analysis, it is recommended to use this model for forecasting and making informed decisions.
大蒜在印度是一种著名的香料,拉贾斯坦邦是印度第二大大蒜生产国,仅次于中央邦。准确的价格预测对农产品至关重要,因为这将对消费者获得粮食以及农民、政府和农业综合企业的生计产生重大影响。各国政府还利用这些预测来支持农业部门和确保粮食安全。在拉贾斯坦邦的哥打地区进行了一项研究,利用2021年7月至2023年7月哥打水果和蔬菜市场的数据分析了大蒜的批发价格。采用简单移动平均(SMA)、简单指数平滑(SES)和自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)模型对大蒜价格进行预测。通过平均绝对偏差(MAD)、均方误差(MSE)、平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)、均方根误差(RMSE)、相关系数(r)和变异系数(CV)对模型进行验证。利用Microsoft Excel和Windows版本的R Studio 4.2.2进行研究,结果表明,采用非零均值模型的ARIMA(1,0,0)具有较强的相关系数(R = 0.91**),能够准确预测大蒜价格的变化。根据分析,建议使用该模型进行预测和做出明智的决策。
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