Pub Date : 2021-10-28DOI: 10.1080/10971475.2021.1996550
Y. Chen, Marie Parker, Xiaodong Zheng, X. Fang
Abstract Migrant workers are an important component of China's labor market, playing a vital role in economic development and social stability. In the face of significant health risks related to their work, migrant workers remain largely under-represented in China’s health insurance system despite their eligibility to participate in several programs. To achieve China’s goal of universal healthcare coverage, migrant workers are targeting populations. The objective of this paper is to understand the factors associated with migrant workers’ participation in health insurance programs. This analysis draws from a survey of 3,342 migrant workers that was conducted by China Agricultural University in 2013. A multinomial logit model was performed to identify the determinants of migrant workers’ health insurance participation. Our findings suggest that the highest rates of un-insurance were observed for females, the elderly, those with lower levels of education, income, or lower self-reported health status, and migrant workers in the construction industry. They are the most vulnerable populations and susceptible to various health and occupational hazards. Besides the high enrollment rates of migrant workers in the New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme, the scheme’s lack of portability needs a complete “Inter-province” balancing reimbursement networking platform to be built. Furthermore, establishing a multi-level medical security system that is accessible and affordable may serve the goal of improving health insurance participation among migrant workers.
{"title":"Health Insurance Coverage of Migrant Workers in China","authors":"Y. Chen, Marie Parker, Xiaodong Zheng, X. Fang","doi":"10.1080/10971475.2021.1996550","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2021.1996550","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Migrant workers are an important component of China's labor market, playing a vital role in economic development and social stability. In the face of significant health risks related to their work, migrant workers remain largely under-represented in China’s health insurance system despite their eligibility to participate in several programs. To achieve China’s goal of universal healthcare coverage, migrant workers are targeting populations. The objective of this paper is to understand the factors associated with migrant workers’ participation in health insurance programs. This analysis draws from a survey of 3,342 migrant workers that was conducted by China Agricultural University in 2013. A multinomial logit model was performed to identify the determinants of migrant workers’ health insurance participation. Our findings suggest that the highest rates of un-insurance were observed for females, the elderly, those with lower levels of education, income, or lower self-reported health status, and migrant workers in the construction industry. They are the most vulnerable populations and susceptible to various health and occupational hazards. Besides the high enrollment rates of migrant workers in the New Rural Cooperative Medical Scheme, the scheme’s lack of portability needs a complete “Inter-province” balancing reimbursement networking platform to be built. Furthermore, establishing a multi-level medical security system that is accessible and affordable may serve the goal of improving health insurance participation among migrant workers.","PeriodicalId":22382,"journal":{"name":"The Chinese Economy","volume":"12 1","pages":"332 - 342"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90513878","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-14DOI: 10.1080/10971475.2021.1972549
Pei-shan Kao
Abstract Following with the rise of China’s economic power, it has been thinking about increasing its political power and influence in the world. Under this consideration, the “One Belt and One Road” (OBOR) initiative was proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013 when he visited Kazakhstan in September and Indonesia in October, the two countries who represent landlocked and maritime nations. From China’s strategic perspective, by means of the OBOR initiative, China not only can promote its trade and economic growth with countries along the routes, but also can disseminate China’s values and soft power. This therefore can deeply connect China with Asia, Africa and Europe and greatly strengthen China’s position and influence on the global stage. However, not every country welcomes China’s grand strategy and its well-designed layout in the regions. Thus, this article wants to use Europe as the example to explore China’s strategic considerations and layout in Europe by the OBOR projects, and also the attitudes and responses of Europe to China. It will be concluded with some suggestions.
{"title":"The Political Economy of China’s Strategic Layout in Europe: A Case Study of the Belt and Road Initiative","authors":"Pei-shan Kao","doi":"10.1080/10971475.2021.1972549","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2021.1972549","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Following with the rise of China’s economic power, it has been thinking about increasing its political power and influence in the world. Under this consideration, the “One Belt and One Road” (OBOR) initiative was proposed by Chinese President Xi Jinping in 2013 when he visited Kazakhstan in September and Indonesia in October, the two countries who represent landlocked and maritime nations. From China’s strategic perspective, by means of the OBOR initiative, China not only can promote its trade and economic growth with countries along the routes, but also can disseminate China’s values and soft power. This therefore can deeply connect China with Asia, Africa and Europe and greatly strengthen China’s position and influence on the global stage. However, not every country welcomes China’s grand strategy and its well-designed layout in the regions. Thus, this article wants to use Europe as the example to explore China’s strategic considerations and layout in Europe by the OBOR projects, and also the attitudes and responses of Europe to China. It will be concluded with some suggestions.","PeriodicalId":22382,"journal":{"name":"The Chinese Economy","volume":"17 1","pages":"303 - 316"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91292570","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-08DOI: 10.1080/10971475.2021.1972545
Linlin Wang, Yanting Zhang, Hanting Xi
Abstract It has been 20 years since the concept of “BRICS” was first proposed in 2001, which can be treated as Group 5 (G5) from the South. As being the world’s second largest economy and largest developing country, China’s leading role in the BRICS has been widely recognized for its strategy adjustment from the international community. It is also of great importance to study the change of China’s status among BRICS countries and to analyze the development reasons from a macro and longitudinal perspective of Chinese way policy. Basically, this article analyzes the formation and function of BRICS’ institution as well as China’s role in BRICS from the perspective of political economy. As China increases political and economic strength, the influence of China’s role serves as an engine for BRICS development, from participant to practitioner and to leader. Meanwhile, as the important role of BRICS countries in the world has increased, then it will lead to a new international situation of a rise in the East (from the South) and the decline in the West (from the North). Under all these political and economic changes, it gives China an opportunity to enhance South-South cooperation as well as South-North economic integration.
{"title":"The Political Economy of China’s Rising Role in the BRICS: Strategies and Instruments of the Chinese Way","authors":"Linlin Wang, Yanting Zhang, Hanting Xi","doi":"10.1080/10971475.2021.1972545","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2021.1972545","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract It has been 20 years since the concept of “BRICS” was first proposed in 2001, which can be treated as Group 5 (G5) from the South. As being the world’s second largest economy and largest developing country, China’s leading role in the BRICS has been widely recognized for its strategy adjustment from the international community. It is also of great importance to study the change of China’s status among BRICS countries and to analyze the development reasons from a macro and longitudinal perspective of Chinese way policy. Basically, this article analyzes the formation and function of BRICS’ institution as well as China’s role in BRICS from the perspective of political economy. As China increases political and economic strength, the influence of China’s role serves as an engine for BRICS development, from participant to practitioner and to leader. Meanwhile, as the important role of BRICS countries in the world has increased, then it will lead to a new international situation of a rise in the East (from the South) and the decline in the West (from the North). Under all these political and economic changes, it gives China an opportunity to enhance South-South cooperation as well as South-North economic integration.","PeriodicalId":22382,"journal":{"name":"The Chinese Economy","volume":"44 1","pages":"317 - 328"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89218737","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-08DOI: 10.1080/10971475.2021.1972544
V. Vu, J. Soong, K. Nguyen
Abstract Established in 1989 as an economic forum, APEC has become an important regional organization contributing to the promotion of not only economic but also political and security cooperation among countries and territories in the region. Given the great role of APEC, China has actively participated in the forum and today has become a major player with so-called Chinese approaches. The paper points out China’s purposes and intentions with Chinese way, especially under the attack of Covid-19 that has led to strategic adjustments in APEC. Politically, with APEC as an arena, China aims to restore and expand its sphere of influence in the region, hedge against the US and challenge to change the global governance system. Economically, through APEC’s mechanism, China wants to promote trade liberalization and hence facilitate its domestic economic reforms to soon become the number one power in the world. Moreover, the paper also outlines opportunities and challenges that China would face in APEC. It will also concern China’s advantages and barricades on its political regime as a powerful central authoritarian state, China’s role and position in the dynamic economic region, its trade and territorial disputes with neighboring countries in APEC, and the questions of APEC’s effectiveness.
{"title":"The Political Economy of China’s Rising Role in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC): Strategies and Instruments of the Chinese Way","authors":"V. Vu, J. Soong, K. Nguyen","doi":"10.1080/10971475.2021.1972544","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2021.1972544","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Established in 1989 as an economic forum, APEC has become an important regional organization contributing to the promotion of not only economic but also political and security cooperation among countries and territories in the region. Given the great role of APEC, China has actively participated in the forum and today has become a major player with so-called Chinese approaches. The paper points out China’s purposes and intentions with Chinese way, especially under the attack of Covid-19 that has led to strategic adjustments in APEC. Politically, with APEC as an arena, China aims to restore and expand its sphere of influence in the region, hedge against the US and challenge to change the global governance system. Economically, through APEC’s mechanism, China wants to promote trade liberalization and hence facilitate its domestic economic reforms to soon become the number one power in the world. Moreover, the paper also outlines opportunities and challenges that China would face in APEC. It will also concern China’s advantages and barricades on its political regime as a powerful central authoritarian state, China’s role and position in the dynamic economic region, its trade and territorial disputes with neighboring countries in APEC, and the questions of APEC’s effectiveness.","PeriodicalId":22382,"journal":{"name":"The Chinese Economy","volume":"6 1","pages":"255 - 267"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87369610","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-08DOI: 10.1080/10971475.2021.1972550
J. Soong
Abstract In order to build up a wielding core role in Asia-Pacific region, China with a high intention and purpose tries to approach her surrounding neighboring nations for closer economic alliance as well as provides an opportunity of “South-South cooperation” to gain geographic “win-win” performance and more amicable settlement. It further depicts that China plays an indispensable and irreplaceable role in regional institutionalized construction, which can be considered as the Chinese way for strategic application. Basically, there are three major Chinese approaches of development strategy utilized on regional economic activities in order to accelerate and ascend China’s role on regional and trans-regional international organizations. Those are: (1) to play a role of promoter as booster/accelerator, such as for BRICS and RCEP; (2) to manage a role of active participator as communicator/supporter, such as for APEC and G20, and (3) to act a role of initiator as creator and chieftain, such as for OBORI, SCO, and BAF.
{"title":"The Political Economy of China’s Rising Role in Regional International Organizations: Are There Strategies and Policies of the Chinese Way Considered and Applied?","authors":"J. Soong","doi":"10.1080/10971475.2021.1972550","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2021.1972550","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In order to build up a wielding core role in Asia-Pacific region, China with a high intention and purpose tries to approach her surrounding neighboring nations for closer economic alliance as well as provides an opportunity of “South-South cooperation” to gain geographic “win-win” performance and more amicable settlement. It further depicts that China plays an indispensable and irreplaceable role in regional institutionalized construction, which can be considered as the Chinese way for strategic application. Basically, there are three major Chinese approaches of development strategy utilized on regional economic activities in order to accelerate and ascend China’s role on regional and trans-regional international organizations. Those are: (1) to play a role of promoter as booster/accelerator, such as for BRICS and RCEP; (2) to manage a role of active participator as communicator/supporter, such as for APEC and G20, and (3) to act a role of initiator as creator and chieftain, such as for OBORI, SCO, and BAF.","PeriodicalId":22382,"journal":{"name":"The Chinese Economy","volume":"15 1","pages":"243 - 254"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75425383","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-08DOI: 10.1080/10971475.2021.1972546
Xianbai Ji, G. Lim
Abstract Since the Global Financial Crisis engulfed much of the world in 2008, the Group of Twenty (G-20) has emerged as the self-acclaimed “premium forum” for international economic cooperation and policy coordination. The ascendency of G-20, of which China is a part, indicates the world’s preference for a more inclusive and informal economic governance model, moving away from the relatively restrictive Group of Seven (G-7) and the legalized Bretton Woods settings. This article analyzes China’s participation and increasingly critical role in the G-20. China’s main priorities in relation to the G-20 evolved over time. The initial focuses on containing financial contagion and reforming Bretton Woods institutions were followed by attempts to resolve bilateral trade issues with the US and to fight the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. China aspires to transform the G-20 from an ad hoc crisis management platform to one promoting proactive long-term global policy cooperation, partly in support of “a community with shared future for humanity” and the Belt and Road Initiative. However, public distrust of international economic interdependence, populist backlash against neoliberal globalization, as well as geopolitical, ideological, technological tussles between China and the West collectively present significant challenges to the G-20.
{"title":"The Chinese Way of Reforming Global Economic Governance: An Analysis of China’s Rising Role in the Group of Twenty (G-20)","authors":"Xianbai Ji, G. Lim","doi":"10.1080/10971475.2021.1972546","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2021.1972546","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Since the Global Financial Crisis engulfed much of the world in 2008, the Group of Twenty (G-20) has emerged as the self-acclaimed “premium forum” for international economic cooperation and policy coordination. The ascendency of G-20, of which China is a part, indicates the world’s preference for a more inclusive and informal economic governance model, moving away from the relatively restrictive Group of Seven (G-7) and the legalized Bretton Woods settings. This article analyzes China’s participation and increasingly critical role in the G-20. China’s main priorities in relation to the G-20 evolved over time. The initial focuses on containing financial contagion and reforming Bretton Woods institutions were followed by attempts to resolve bilateral trade issues with the US and to fight the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. China aspires to transform the G-20 from an ad hoc crisis management platform to one promoting proactive long-term global policy cooperation, partly in support of “a community with shared future for humanity” and the Belt and Road Initiative. However, public distrust of international economic interdependence, populist backlash against neoliberal globalization, as well as geopolitical, ideological, technological tussles between China and the West collectively present significant challenges to the G-20.","PeriodicalId":22382,"journal":{"name":"The Chinese Economy","volume":"1 1","pages":"282 - 292"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79590795","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-03DOI: 10.1080/10971475.2021.1972547
Wayne Tan, J. Soong
Abstract After eight years of back-and-forth negotiations, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement, was signed in the end of 2020. This mega trade deal is a potential free trade agreement that originally poses challenges for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) led by US, because a rising China with its economic influence in regional trade threatens the current US hegemony, alienates countries in East Asia from the US, and likely strive to become the leader of RCEP. However, these diplomatic strategies are not truly in line with China’s long-term interests; on the contrary, this paper argues that China should use the platform of RCEP to act as a supporter and promoter. Playing the roles of supporter and promoter is surely wise since it assists the neighboring countries to make economic advantages with China in a more liberalized regional market, while pragmatically reminding the leaders in Beijing that China should address the South China Sea problem with ASEAN countries in a defensive manner. All these relative low profile strategies, based on ‘one political step back for two economic steps forward,’ may consider as Chinese approach or Chinese way in RCEP.
{"title":"The Political Economy of China’s Rising Role in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP): Strategies and Instruments of Chinese Way","authors":"Wayne Tan, J. Soong","doi":"10.1080/10971475.2021.1972547","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2021.1972547","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract After eight years of back-and-forth negotiations, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement, was signed in the end of 2020. This mega trade deal is a potential free trade agreement that originally poses challenges for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) led by US, because a rising China with its economic influence in regional trade threatens the current US hegemony, alienates countries in East Asia from the US, and likely strive to become the leader of RCEP. However, these diplomatic strategies are not truly in line with China’s long-term interests; on the contrary, this paper argues that China should use the platform of RCEP to act as a supporter and promoter. Playing the roles of supporter and promoter is surely wise since it assists the neighboring countries to make economic advantages with China in a more liberalized regional market, while pragmatically reminding the leaders in Beijing that China should address the South China Sea problem with ASEAN countries in a defensive manner. All these relative low profile strategies, based on ‘one political step back for two economic steps forward,’ may consider as Chinese approach or Chinese way in RCEP.","PeriodicalId":22382,"journal":{"name":"The Chinese Economy","volume":"10 1","pages":"268 - 281"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74971175","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-09-03DOI: 10.1080/10971475.2021.1972548
Wen-Chih Chao
Abstract The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has become the most important vehicle for Chinese cooperation with Central Asian member states and Russia. China seeks to play an active role and exert strong influence in the SCO for both economic reasons and strategic considerations. China aims to resolve territorial and border issues with Central Asian states, maintain stability in Xinjiang, develop the economy of western areas, and ensure energy security by playing a leading role in the SCO. Analyzing China’s role in the SCO and the related opportunities and challenges is the primary goal of this paper. The Chinese government uses economic cooperation to exert influence within the SCO. However, the Chinese government must still overcome numerous challenges, including reconciling mistrust and conflict among SCO member states, reducing Russian suspicion of Chinese intention, response to transformation of the SCO, and dilemmas regarding regional instability.
{"title":"The Political Economy of China’s Rising Role in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO): Leading with Balance","authors":"Wen-Chih Chao","doi":"10.1080/10971475.2021.1972548","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2021.1972548","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has become the most important vehicle for Chinese cooperation with Central Asian member states and Russia. China seeks to play an active role and exert strong influence in the SCO for both economic reasons and strategic considerations. China aims to resolve territorial and border issues with Central Asian states, maintain stability in Xinjiang, develop the economy of western areas, and ensure energy security by playing a leading role in the SCO. Analyzing China’s role in the SCO and the related opportunities and challenges is the primary goal of this paper. The Chinese government uses economic cooperation to exert influence within the SCO. However, the Chinese government must still overcome numerous challenges, including reconciling mistrust and conflict among SCO member states, reducing Russian suspicion of Chinese intention, response to transformation of the SCO, and dilemmas regarding regional instability.","PeriodicalId":22382,"journal":{"name":"The Chinese Economy","volume":"38 1","pages":"293 - 302"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79071616","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This study examines the role of political risk in deterring China's trade flow with her 132 trading partners with particular attention to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries for 1984-2015 in the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) framework. Using twelve political risk indicators from International Country Risk Guide (ICRG), we use factor analysis to retrieve three underlying factors: 'Cultural Rigidity,' 'Governance Failure,' and 'Partners' Adverse Feeling.' After combining these factors into a dynamic system GMM Gravity equation, we examine their impact on China's trade flow. As we control for Gravity variables and these risk factors, BRI has been found effective for China with MENA countries, ASEAN10, and ASEAN10 + 3 (China, Japan, and South Korea) but detrimental to trade flow within the ASEAN10 + 6 (China, India, Japan, S Korea, Australia, and New Zealand) setup. Among the three factors, 'Partners' Adverse Feeling' is the most substantial deterrent, followed by 'Cultural Rigidities.' Most of the traditional Gravity coefficients like domestic and partner country's GDP, domestic and partner country's per capita GDP, distance, GATT membership of China and Partners, take their right sign and significance. 'Governance failure' has been found as a significant deterrent neither in ASEAN nor in MENA setup. Therefore, China should strive to improve cultural bottlenecks with her partner countries and improve upon the existing adverse perception in enhancing her trade flow with these countries.
{"title":"Does Political Risk Matter for China's Trade with ASEAN and MENA Countries? A Belt Road Initiative Perspective","authors":"Dr. Gour Gobinda Goswami, Dr. Nisit Panthamit","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3576559","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3576559","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study examines the role of political risk in deterring China's trade flow with her 132 trading partners with particular attention to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Middle East and North African (MENA) countries for 1984-2015 in the Belt Road Initiative (BRI) framework. Using twelve political risk indicators from International Country Risk Guide (ICRG), we use factor analysis to retrieve three underlying factors: 'Cultural Rigidity,' 'Governance Failure,' and 'Partners' Adverse Feeling.' After combining these factors into a dynamic system GMM Gravity equation, we examine their impact on China's trade flow. As we control for Gravity variables and these risk factors, BRI has been found effective for China with MENA countries, ASEAN10, and ASEAN10 + 3 (China, Japan, and South Korea) but detrimental to trade flow within the ASEAN10 + 6 (China, India, Japan, S Korea, Australia, and New Zealand) setup. Among the three factors, 'Partners' Adverse Feeling' is the most substantial deterrent, followed by 'Cultural Rigidities.' Most of the traditional Gravity coefficients like domestic and partner country's GDP, domestic and partner country's per capita GDP, distance, GATT membership of China and Partners, take their right sign and significance. 'Governance failure' has been found as a significant deterrent neither in ASEAN nor in MENA setup. Therefore, China should strive to improve cultural bottlenecks with her partner countries and improve upon the existing adverse perception in enhancing her trade flow with these countries.","PeriodicalId":22382,"journal":{"name":"The Chinese Economy","volume":"102 1","pages":"188 - 207"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79418974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-08-05DOI: 10.1080/10971475.2021.1958453
Abdelkader Mohamed Sghaier Derbali, Kamel Naoui, Mounir Ben Sassi, Mohamed Marouen Amiri
Abstract This study presents an important view to the predictive capacity of COVID-19 for the correlation between Chinese stock market and 9 international stock market in Asia, Europe, and North America regions. In this paper, we try to investigate the spillover impacts of China’s stock market on the selected stock markets using an econometric methodology based on DCC-GARCH models during the period from May 01, 2019 to May 30, 2020. Our results show a strong significant DCC among China’s stock market index and selected international stock market indices especially in the outbreak of COVID-19. We find that the results related to the degree of the persistence of volatility, are sensitive to the existence of the COVID-19 surprises into the DCC-GARCH (1) model. We remark that that COVID-19 has a short-term impact on international stock market indices volatilities. Finally, we can conclude that COVID-19 explain the spillover impacts of China’s stock market index on selected countries using DCC-GARCH models. This paper gives an important framework to the investors to choose their portfolios in the financial markets especially in the crisis period. This paper contributes to the literature on assessing the impact of COVID-19 confirmed cases surprises on the correlation between China’s stock market index and selected international stock market in Asia, Europe, and North America regions.
{"title":"Do COVID-19 Epidemic Explains the Dynamic Conditional Correlation between China’s Stock Market Index and International Stock Market Indices?","authors":"Abdelkader Mohamed Sghaier Derbali, Kamel Naoui, Mounir Ben Sassi, Mohamed Marouen Amiri","doi":"10.1080/10971475.2021.1958453","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/10971475.2021.1958453","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study presents an important view to the predictive capacity of COVID-19 for the correlation between Chinese stock market and 9 international stock market in Asia, Europe, and North America regions. In this paper, we try to investigate the spillover impacts of China’s stock market on the selected stock markets using an econometric methodology based on DCC-GARCH models during the period from May 01, 2019 to May 30, 2020. Our results show a strong significant DCC among China’s stock market index and selected international stock market indices especially in the outbreak of COVID-19. We find that the results related to the degree of the persistence of volatility, are sensitive to the existence of the COVID-19 surprises into the DCC-GARCH (1) model. We remark that that COVID-19 has a short-term impact on international stock market indices volatilities. Finally, we can conclude that COVID-19 explain the spillover impacts of China’s stock market index on selected countries using DCC-GARCH models. This paper gives an important framework to the investors to choose their portfolios in the financial markets especially in the crisis period. This paper contributes to the literature on assessing the impact of COVID-19 confirmed cases surprises on the correlation between China’s stock market index and selected international stock market in Asia, Europe, and North America regions.","PeriodicalId":22382,"journal":{"name":"The Chinese Economy","volume":"25 1","pages":"227 - 242"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81398162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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