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Syphilis testing, incidence, and reinfection among gay and bisexual men in Australia over a decade spanning HIV PrEP implementation: an analysis of surveillance data from 2012 to 2022 澳大利亚男同性恋者和双性恋者中梅毒检测、发病率和再感染情况:对 2012 年至 2022 年监测数据的分析
IF 7.6 1区 医学 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2024-08-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101175

Background

Gay and bisexual men (GBM) remain overrepresented among syphilis diagnoses in Australia and globally. The extent to which changes in sexual networks associated with HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and treatment as prevention (TasP) may have influenced syphilis transmission among GBM at the population-level is poorly understood. We describe trends in syphilis testing and incidence among GBM in Australia over eleven years spanning widespread uptake of HIV PrEP and TasP.

Methods

We analysed linked clinical data from GBM aged 16 years or older across a sentinel surveillance network in Australia from January 1, 2012, to December 31, 2022. Individuals with at least two clinic visits and with at least two syphilis tests during the observations period were included in testing and incidence analyses, respectively. Annual rates of testing and infectious syphilis incidence from 2012 to 2022 were disaggregated by HIV status and PrEP use (record of PrEP prescription; retrospectively categorised as ever or never-PrEP user). Cox regression explored associations between demographics, PrEP use and history of bacterial sexually transmissible infections (STIs) and infectious syphilis diagnosis.

Findings

Among 129,278 GBM (mean age, 34.6 years [SD, 12.2]) included in testing rate analyses, 7.4% were living with HIV at entry and 31.1% were prescribed PrEP at least once during the study period. Overall syphilis testing rate was 114.0/100 person-years (py) and highest among GBM with HIV (168.4/100 py). Syphilis testing increased from 72.8/100 py to 151.8/100 py; driven largely by increases among ever-PrEP users. Among 94,710 GBM included in incidence analyses, there were 14,710 syphilis infections diagnosed over 451,560 person-years (incidence rate = 3.3/100 py). Syphilis incidence was highest among GBM with HIV (6.5/100 py), followed by ever-PrEP users (3.5/100 py) and never-PrEP users (1.4/100 py). From 2012 to 2022, syphilis incidence increased among ever-PrEP users from 1.3/100 py to 5.1/100 py, and fluctuated between 5.4/100 py and 6.6/100 py among GBM with HIV. In multivariable Cox regression, previous syphilis diagnosis (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.98, 95% CI = 1.83–2.14), living with HIV (aHR = 1.83, 95% CI = 1.12–1.25) and recent (past 12 m) prescription of PrEP (aHR = 1.78, 95% CI = 1.61–1.97) were associated with syphilis diagnosis.

Interpretation

Syphilis trends between GBM with HIV and GBM with evidence of PrEP use have converged over the past decade in Australia. Our findings recommend targeting emergent syphilis control strategies (e.g. doxycycline post-exposure prophylaxis) to GBM with prior syphilis diagnoses, using HIV PrEP or who are living with HIV.

Funding

Australian Department of Health and Aged Care, National Health and Medical Research Council.

背景在澳大利亚和全球梅毒诊断中,男同性恋者和双性恋者(GBM)所占比例仍然过高。人们对与艾滋病暴露前预防(PrEP)和治疗即预防(TasP)相关的性网络变化在多大程度上影响了梅毒在GBM人群中的传播还知之甚少。我们描述了澳大利亚在广泛采用HIV PrEP和TasP的11年间GBM梅毒检测和发病率的趋势。在观察期间至少接受过两次门诊就诊和至少两次梅毒检测的个体分别纳入检测和发病率分析。2012年至2022年期间的年检测率和感染性梅毒发病率按艾滋病病毒感染状况和PrEP使用情况(PrEP处方记录;回顾性分为曾经或从未使用过PrEP)分列。Cox回归探讨了人口统计学、PrEP使用情况、细菌性性传播感染(STI)病史与传染性梅毒诊断之间的关联。研究结果在纳入检测率分析的129278名GBM(平均年龄34.6岁[标码:12.2])中,7.4%在入组时感染了HIV,31.1%在研究期间至少开具过一次PrEP处方。总体梅毒检测率为 114.0/100 人-年(py),感染 HIV 的 GBM 检测率最高(168.4/100 人-年)。梅毒检测率从72.8/100人年上升到151.8/100人年,这主要是由于曾经使用过PrEP的人群中梅毒检测率的上升。在纳入发病率分析的 94,710 名 GBM 中,451,560 人年中诊断出 14,710 例梅毒感染(发病率 = 3.3/100 py)。梅毒发病率最高的是感染了艾滋病毒的GBM(6.5/100人),其次是曾经使用过PrEP者(3.5/100人)和从未使用过PrEP者(1.4/100人)。从2012年到2022年,在曾经使用过PrEP的人群中,梅毒发病率从1.3/100 py上升到5.1/100 py,而在感染艾滋病毒的GBM人群中,梅毒发病率则在5.4/100 py和6.6/100 py之间波动。在多变量 Cox 回归中,既往梅毒诊断(调整后危险比 [aHR] = 1.98,95% CI = 1.83-2.14)、HIV 感染者(aHR = 1.83,95% CI = 1.12-1.25)和近期(过去 12 m)PrEP 处方(aHR = 1.78,95% CI = 1.61-1.97)与梅毒诊断相关。我们的研究结果表明,梅毒控制策略(如强力霉素暴露后预防)应针对曾诊断出梅毒、使用HIV PrEP或感染HIV的GBM。
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引用次数: 0
Primary care quality and provider disparities in China: a standardized-patient-based study 中国基层医疗质量与医疗服务提供者的差异:基于标准化病人的研究
IF 7.6 1区 医学 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101161

Background

Primary health care is the foundation of high-performing health systems. Achieving an improved primary care system requires a thorough understanding of the current quality of care among various providers within the system. As the world's largest developing country, China has made significant investments in primary care over the past decade. This study evaluates the quality of primary care across different provider types in China, offering in-sights for enhancing China's primary care system.

Methods

We merged data from four standardized patient (SP) research projects to compare the quality of five major primary care providers in China: rural clinics, county hospitals, migrant clinics, urban community health cen-ters (CHCs), and online platforms. We evaluated quality of care across process quality (e.g., checklist completion), diagnosis quality (e.g., diagnostic accuracy), and case management (e.g., correct medication), employing multiple regression analyses to explore quality differences by provider type, and their associations with physician characteristics.

Findings

We document a poor quality of primary care in China, with no-table disparities across different providers. CHCs emerge as relatively reliable primary care providers in terms of process quality, diagnostic accuracy, and cor-rect medication prescriptions. Online platforms outpace rural clinics, county hospitals, and migrant clinics in many areas, showcasing their potential to en-hance access to quality healthcare resources in under-resourced rural regions. We observe a positive association between the qualifications of physicians and the quality of primary care, underscoring the necessity for a greater presence of more highly qualified practitioners.

Interpretation

Primary care quality in China varies greatly among providers, reflecting inequalities in healthcare access. While online platforms indicate po-tential for improving care in under-resourced areas, their high referral rates suggest they cannot completely substitute traditional care. The findings em-phasize the need for more qualified practitioners and stringent regulation to enhance care quality and reduce unnecessary treatments.

Funding

No founders had a role in the study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the report. We have acknowledged this in the revised manuscript.

背景初级医疗保健是高效医疗系统的基础。要改善初级医疗系统,就必须全面了解系统内不同医疗服务提供者目前的医疗质量。作为世界上最大的发展中国家,中国在过去十年中对初级医疗进行了大量投资。本研究评估了中国不同医疗机构的基层医疗质量,为加强中国的基层医疗体系提供了启示。方法我们合并了四个标准化病人(SP)研究项目的数据,比较了中国五个主要基层医疗机构的医疗质量:农村诊所、县级医院、农民工诊所、城市社区卫生服务中心(CHC)和网络平台。我们从流程质量(如检查表的完成情况)、诊断质量(如诊断的准确性)和病例管理(如用药的正确性)三个方面对医疗质量进行了评估,并采用多元回归分析探讨了不同医疗机构的质量差异及其与医生特征之间的关联。从流程质量、诊断准确性和处方正确性来看,社区卫生服务中心是相对可靠的初级医疗服务提供者。在线平台在很多方面都超过了乡镇卫生院、县级医院和流动人口诊所,显示了其在资源不足的农村地区提高优质医疗资源可及性的潜力。我们观察到医生的资质与初级医疗质量之间存在正相关,这强调了更多高资质医生的存在的必要性。 解释在中国,不同医疗服务提供者的初级医疗质量差异很大,这反映了医疗服务的不平等。虽然在线平台显示出改善资源匮乏地区医疗服务的潜力,但其高转诊率表明它们不能完全替代传统医疗服务。研究结果强调,需要更多合格的从业人员和严格的监管,以提高医疗质量,减少不必要的治疗。我们已在修订稿中对此予以确认。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of long-term benefits and cost-effectiveness of nation-wide colorectal cancer screening strategies in China in 2020–2060: a modelling analysis 2020-2060 年中国全国大肠癌筛查策略的长期效益和成本效益评估:模型分析
IF 7.6 1区 医学 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2024-08-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101172

Background

Evidence on the long-term benefits and cost-effectiveness of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening strategies in China remains limited. This modelling study aims to address this issue for various CRC screening strategies in China between 2020 and 2060.

Methods

Using a previously developed microsimulation model (MIMIC-CRC) with Chinese epidemiological data, we evaluated four CRC screening strategies targeting population aged 45–74 years: no screening, colonoscopy every 10 years, biennial faecal immunochemical testing (FIT), and a roll-out FIT screening strategy. Screening coverage (invitation) rates from 5% to 100% were analysed. Single-cohort analysis of 100,000 individuals was conducted to estimate the relative cost-effectiveness of each strategy. A multiple-cohort analysis of 100,000 people aged 40+ over 2020–2060 was conducted to project nation-wide long-term benefits and cost-effectiveness.

Findings

In single-cohort analysis, all strategies yielded reductions in CRC incidence and mortality compared to no screening, with colonoscopy outperforming FIT-based strategies at the same invitation rates. In multiple-cohort analysis, among people over 40 years of age in China over 2020–2060, compared to no screening, at invitation rate of 5%, screening by colonoscopy, biennial FIT and roll-out FIT-based approach were estimated to avert 1.2, 0.4, and 0.3 million incident CRCs and 0.2, 0.1, and 0.1 million CRC-related deaths, respectively, compared to no screening (25.4 million incident CRCs and 4.4 million CRC-related deaths), and this preventive effect enlarged as the screening coverage rate increased. At full coverage, colonoscopy achieved the largest reductions (38.2% lower incidence and 43.2% lower mortality) but required the most resources. Biennial FIT and roll-out FIT-based approach screening was slightly less effective but had significant reduced colonoscopy needs (reduction of 83.8% and 85.2%, respectively) and overall cost (reduction of 23.4% and 37.8%, respectively) compared to colonoscopy screening.

Interpretation

Nation-wide implementation of screening would be effective in reducing the burden of CRC in China. Biennial FIT and roll-out FIT-based screening strategies could prevent incident CRC cases and CRC-related deaths with considerably fewer resources than colonoscopy screening. Efforts should be made to increase the screening coverage in China.

Funding

Chinese Academy of Medical Science Innovation Fund for Medical Science (2022-I2M-1-0031); National Natural Science Foundation of China (82173606; 82273726); Beijing Nova Program of Science and Technology (20230484397).

背景有关中国结直肠癌(CRC)筛查策略的长期效益和成本效益的证据仍然有限。方法利用之前开发的微观模拟模型(MIMIC-CRC)和中国流行病学数据,我们评估了针对 45-74 岁人群的四种 CRC 筛查策略:不进行筛查、每十年进行一次结肠镜检查、每两年进行一次粪便免疫化学检测(FIT)以及推广 FIT 筛查策略。对筛查覆盖率(邀请率)从 5% 到 100% 进行了分析。对 100,000 人进行了单队列分析,以估算每种策略的相对成本效益。研究结果在单队列分析中,与不进行筛查相比,所有策略都能降低 CRC 发病率和死亡率,在邀请率相同的情况下,结肠镜检查优于基于 FIT 的策略。在多队列分析中,2020-2060 年期间,在中国 40 岁以上人群中,与不进行筛查相比,在邀请率为 5%的情况下,通过结肠镜筛查、两年一次的 FIT 筛查和推广基于 FIT 的筛查方法估计分别可避免 120 万、40 万和 30 万例 CRC 发病率和 0.与不进行筛查(2 540 万例 CRC 事件和 440 万例 CRC 相关死亡)相比,估计可分别避免 120 万、40 万和 30 万例 CRC 事件以及 20 万、10 万和 10 万例 CRC 相关死亡。在全面覆盖的情况下,结肠镜检查的减幅最大(发病率降低 38.2%,死亡率降低 43.2%),但所需资源也最多。与结肠镜筛查相比,两年一次的FIT筛查和推广FIT筛查的效果稍差,但结肠镜检查需求(分别减少83.8%和85.2%)和总体成本(分别减少23.4%和37.8%)显著降低。与结肠镜筛查相比,每两年进行一次 FIT 和推广基于 FIT 的筛查策略可以用更少的资源预防 CRC 病例和 CRC 相关死亡。基金资助中国医学科学院医学科学创新基金(2022-I2M-1-0031);国家自然科学基金(82173606;82273726);北京市科技新星计划(20230484397)。
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引用次数: 0
Low-intensity parent- and clinician-delivered support for young autistic children in Aotearoa New Zealand: a randomised controlled trial 新西兰奥特亚罗瓦地区由家长和临床医生为自闭症儿童提供的低强度支持:随机对照试验
IF 7.6 1区 医学 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2024-08-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101173

Background

Aotearoa New Zealand does not provide publicly-funded intensive autism support. While parent-mediated supports are promising, children and families may also benefit from direct clinician support. We tested the efficacy of a low-intensity programme involving parent- and clinician-delivered support for autistic children.

Methods

This single-blind, two-arm randomised controlled trial assessed outcomes of a six-month low-intensity parent- and clinician-delivered support (2–3 h per week) based on the Early Start Denver Model compared to a control group who received monthly support calls and assistance with referrals. Children aged 1–4.5 years who were autistic or showing signs of autism and their parents were randomised to the low-intensity or control group by a blinded statistician using the Urn minimisation method. Assessments were conducted at baseline and immediately following the support period (24-weeks post-baseline). The primary outcome was child engagement during an interaction with their parent. The trial was pre-registered with ANZCTR: U1111-1260-2529.

Findings

From March 2021 to May 2023, 56 families were randomised to either the low-intensity or control group. Following drop-outs, 21 families in the low-intensity group and 24 in the control group were included in analysis. There was large and significantly greater improvement in children's engagement in the low-intensity group compared to the control group (F (1, 43) = 21.47, p < 0.0001, ηp2 = 0.33). There was one recorded adverse event unrelated to the support and two adverse effects related to the support.

Interpretation

A low-intensity parent- and clinician-delivered support can improve engagement between an autistic child and their parent during play. Low-intensity supports may be beneficial in areas where access to clinical autism supports is limited.

Funding

Emerging Researcher First Grant from the Health Research Council of New Zealand.

背景新西兰没有提供由政府资助的自闭症强化支持。虽然由家长提供的支持很有前景,但儿童和家庭也可从临床医生的直接支持中受益。我们测试了一项由家长和临床医生共同为自闭症儿童提供支持的低强度计划的有效性。方法这项单盲双臂随机对照试验评估了家长和临床医生共同提供的为期 6 个月的低强度支持(每周 2-3 小时)的结果,该支持以早期开始丹佛模式为基础,对照组则每月接受支持电话和转介协助。年龄在 1-4.5 岁的自闭症儿童或有自闭症迹象的儿童及其家长被随机分配到低强度组或对照组。评估在基线和支持期结束后(基线后 24 周)立即进行。主要结果是儿童在与父母互动时的参与度。研究结果从 2021 年 3 月到 2023 年 5 月,56 个家庭被随机分配到低强度组或对照组。在退出后,低强度组中的 21 个家庭和对照组中的 24 个家庭被纳入分析。与对照组相比,低强度组儿童参与度的提高幅度较大且明显(F (1, 43) = 21.47, p < 0.0001, ηp2 = 0.33)。有一项记录的不良事件与支持无关,两项不良反应与支持有关。在临床自闭症支持服务有限的地区,低强度支持服务可能是有益的。
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引用次数: 0
Age, period and cohort analysis of suicide trends in Australia, 1907–2020 1907-2020 年澳大利亚自杀趋势的年龄、时期和队列分析
IF 7.6 1区 医学 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2024-08-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101171

Background

Suicide rates have been increasing in Australia since the mid-2000s, especially for women aged ≤25 years. We conducted an age-period-cohort study to investigate these recent trends in the context of historical Australian suicide rates.

Methods

Data on annual suicides in Australia from 1907 to 2020 were extracted from the General Record of Incidence of Mortality. We modelled age-specific effects for a reference cohort, after adjustment for period effects.

Findings

We found evidence of age, cohort and period effects. For males, compared to the cohort born in 1946–1950, rates were higher for all cohorts born after this year. The period effect showed peaks in the risk of male suicide in the mid 1960s and the early 1990s, followed by a decline in risk until early 2010, after which the risk began to rise again. For females, compared to the cohort born in 1946–1950, the risk of suicide was higher for all cohorts born after this, with the highest risk for those born in 2006–2010. The period effect for females showed an elevated risk of suicide in the mid 1960s followed by a sharp decline, and an increase in risk after 2009.

Interpretation

Suicide rates in Australia have fluctuated substantially over time and appear to be related to age trends as well as period and cohort trends. Advocacy and policy making tends to focus on contemporaneous changes in suicide rates. However, this study shows that focusing only on year-on-year changes in suicide rates ignores underlying trends for specific population birth-cohorts.

Funding

None.

背景自2000年代中期以来,澳大利亚的自杀率一直在上升,尤其是25岁以下的女性。我们进行了一项年龄-时期-队列研究,以澳大利亚历史自杀率为背景,调查这些近期趋势。在对时期效应进行调整后,我们对参考队列的特定年龄效应进行了建模。就男性而言,与 1946-1950 年出生的人群相比,1946-1950 年之后出生的人群发病率更高。时期效应显示,男性自杀风险在 20 世纪 60 年代中期和 90 年代初达到高峰,随后风险下降,直到 2010 年初,之后风险开始回升。就女性而言,与 1946-1950 年出生的人群相比,此后出生的人群自杀风险都较高,其中 2006-2010 年出生的人群自杀风险最高。女性的时期效应显示,20 世纪 60 年代中期自杀风险升高,随后急剧下降,2009 年后风险升高。宣传和政策制定往往侧重于自杀率的同期变化。然而,本研究表明,仅关注自杀率的同比变化会忽略特定人群出生组群的潜在趋势。
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引用次数: 0
A qualitative study on general practitioners’ perspectives on late-life depression in Singapore—part I: patient presentations and behaviours 新加坡全科医生对晚年抑郁症的看法定性研究--第一部分:病人的表现和行为
IF 7.6 1区 医学 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2024-08-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101170

Background

Detection and management of late-life depression largely relies on primary care. Yet in Singapore, older adults are unlikely to seek help for their mental health from their primary care providers. This qualitative descriptive study explores how late-life depression manifests to general practitioners (GPs) in the Singaporean primary care setting.

Methods

Twenty-eight private GPs practicing in Singapore were asked about their clinical experience with late-life depression during semi-structured group and individual discussions conducted online. Participants were purposively sampled across age, gender, and ethnicity (Chinese, Malay, Indian). Transcripts were analysed with reflexive thematic analysis.

Findings

To GPs, depression in older patients often manifests through somatic symptoms or subtle behavioural changes, only detectable through follow-ups or collateral history. GPs reported that older patients attribute depressive symptoms to normal ageing or do not mention them, particularly within an Asian culture encouraging stoic endurance. GPs perceived late-life depression as reactions to ageing-related stressors, with male, low-income, or institutionalised patients being at particular risk of insidious, severe depression. GPs noted ethnic differences regarding families’ involvement in care, which they described as helpful, but sometimes stress-provoking for patients. Fear of burdensomeness or loss of autonomy/social role could prompt rejection of diagnosis and treatment in patients. GPs considered good patient-doctor rapport as a facilitator at every step of the care process, noting more favourable prognosis in care-concordant patients.

Interpretation

Depression in older adults in Singapore can be covert, with favourable outcomes relying on GPs’ ability to pick up on subtle changes, assess patients holistically, and build rapport with patients and families.

Funding

This work was funded by the Division of Family Medicine Research Capabilities Building Budget under the project “Technology and Compassion: Improving Patient Outcomes Through Data Analytics and Patients’ Voice in Primary Care” [NUHSRO/2022/049/NUSMed/DFM].

背景晚年抑郁症的检测和管理主要依赖于初级保健。然而,在新加坡,老年人不太可能向初级保健提供者寻求心理健康帮助。这项定性描述性研究探讨了新加坡初级医疗机构中的全科医生(GPs)是如何看待晚年抑郁症的。方法在网上进行的半结构化小组和个人讨论中,28 名在新加坡执业的私人全科医生被问及他们对晚年抑郁症的临床经验。参与者的年龄、性别和种族(华裔、马来裔、印度裔)均有针对性。研究结果对全科医生而言,老年患者的抑郁症通常表现为躯体症状或细微的行为变化,只有通过随访或旁证病史才能发现。据全科医生报告,老年患者将抑郁症状归因于正常的衰老或不予提及,尤其是在鼓励坚忍不拔的亚洲文化中。全科医生认为,晚年抑郁症是对与衰老有关的压力的反应,男性、低收入或住在养老院的病人尤其容易患上隐匿性严重抑郁症。全科医生注意到在家庭参与护理方面存在着种族差异,他们认为家庭参与护理很有帮助,但有时也会给患者带来压力。害怕负担过重或失去自主权/社会角色可能会促使患者拒绝接受诊断和治疗。全科医生认为,良好的医患关系是护理过程中每一步的促进因素,并指出,护理一致的患者预后更佳。解释新加坡老年人的抑郁症可能具有隐蔽性,能否取得良好的疗效取决于全科医生能否捕捉到细微的变化、全面评估患者以及与患者和家属建立良好关系:本研究由全科医学科研究能力建设预算项目 "技术与仁爱:通过数据分析和患者在初级医疗中的声音改善患者的治疗效果"[NUHSRO/2022/049/NUSMed/DFM]资助。
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引用次数: 0
Bidirectional association identified between synovitis and knee and hand osteoarthritis: a general population-based study 滑膜炎与膝关节和手部骨关节炎之间的双向关联:一项基于普通人群的研究
IF 7.6 1区 医学 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2024-08-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101169

Background

Synovitis has long been considered a common and modifiable inflammatory feature of osteoarthritis (OA), but current disease-modifying anti-inflammatory treatments appear ineffective in OA clinical trials. Elucidating the temporal relationship between synovitis and OA could provide insight into the role of synovitis in OA.

Methods

We conducted a prospective cohort study based on the baseline and three-year follow-up data from the Xiangya Osteoarthritis (XO) Study. We assessed bidirectional associations between ultrasound-detected synovitis and radiographic and symptomatic OA at knee and hand sites using generalized estimating equations. Additionally, we performed bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to test these hypotheses utilising whole-genome sequencing data in the XO population. Age, sex, body mass index, smoking, alcohol consumption, educational level, physical activity, and joint injury history were adjusted for these analyses.

Findings

A total of 2211, 2420, 2280, and 2600 participants were enrolled for analyses of radiographic knee OA (RKOA), symptomatic knee OA (SKOA), radiographic hand OA (RHOA) and symptomatic hand OA (SHOA), respectively. The baseline synovitis (i.e., with synovitis vs. without synovitis) was associated with the incident RKOA (76/277 vs. 557/3674 knees), SKOA (49/387 vs. 287/4213 knees), RHOA (171/358 vs. 686/3664 hands) and SHOA (35/689 vs. 76/4327 hands), with adjusted odds ratio (aORs) of 2.2 (95% CI 1.7–3.1), 2.0 (1.3–2.9), 3.4 (2.7–4.4), and 2.4 (1.5–3.8), respectively. The baseline RKOA (with OA vs. without OA: 409/1246 vs. 481/3758 knees), SKOA (200/576 vs. 675/4356 knees), RHOA (192/778 vs. 410/3723 hands), and SHOA (41/162 vs. 548/4285 hands) were also associated with the incident synovitis, with aORs of 3.4 (95% CI 2.9–4.1), 2.7 (2.1–3.4), 2.3 (1.8–2.9) and 1.9 (1.2–2.8), respectively. These bidirectional associations were stronger when more active synovitis was compared with the reference group (all P < 0.05). MR analyses further supported bidirectional associations that synovitis significantly increased the odds of incident OA at both sites and vice versa (all ORs ranged from 1.2–1.7).

Interpretation

Our population-based cohort study found novel evidence of a bidirectional association between synovitis and OA, which was further validated through MR analysis and suggested that the bidirectional association is likely causal. Our findings indicated that synovitis is both a risk factor and a consequence of the OA rather than solely a risk factor.

Funding

The National Key Research and Development Plan, the National Natural Science Foundation of China, the Key Research and Development Program of Hunan Province, the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province, the Central South University Innovation-Driv

背景长期以来,滑膜炎一直被认为是骨关节炎(OA)的一种常见且可改变的炎症特征,但目前的疾病改变抗炎治疗在 OA 临床试验中似乎效果不佳。方法我们根据湘雅骨关节炎(XO)研究的基线和三年随访数据开展了一项前瞻性队列研究。我们使用广义估计方程评估了超声检测到的滑膜炎与膝关节和手部的影像学和症状性 OA 之间的双向关联。此外,我们还利用XO人群的全基因组测序数据进行了双向孟德尔随机化(MR)分析,以检验这些假设。这些分析对年龄、性别、体重指数、吸烟、饮酒、受教育程度、体力活动和关节损伤史进行了调整。研究结果 共有 2211 人、2420 人、2280 人和 2600 人分别参加了膝关节放射性 OA(RKOA)、症状性膝关节 OA(SKOA)、手部放射性 OA(RHOA)和症状性手部 OA(SHOA)的分析。滑膜炎基线(即与RKOA(76/277 对 557/3674 膝)、SKOA(49/387 对 287/4213 膝)、RHOA(171/358 对 686/3664 手)和无症状手部 OA(SHOA)相关。调整后的几率(aORs)分别为 2.2(95% CI 1.7-3.1)、2.0(1.3-2.9)、3.4(2.7-4.4)和 2.4(1.5-3.8)。基线 RKOA(有 OA 对无 OA:409/1246 对 481/3758 膝)、SKOA(200/576 对 675/4356 膝)、RHOA(192/778 对 410/3723 手)和 SHOA(41/162 对 548/4285 手)分别为:1.0(1.3-2.9)、2.0(1.3-2.9)、3.4(2.7-4.4)和 2.4(1.5-3.8)。RHOA(192/778 对 410/3723 双手)和 SHOA(41/162 对 548/4285 双手)也与滑膜炎的发生有关,其 aOR 分别为 3.4(95% CI 2.9-4.1)、2.7(2.1-3.4)、2.3(1.8-2.9)和 1.9(1.2-2.8)。当活动性滑膜炎与参照组相比时,这些双向关联性更强(所有 P 均为 0.05)。我们基于人群的队列研究发现了滑膜炎与 OA 之间存在双向关联的新证据,并通过 MR 分析进一步验证了这一证据,表明这种双向关联很可能是因果关系。我们的研究结果表明,滑膜炎既是OA的危险因素,也是OA的后果,而不仅仅是危险因素。基金项目国家重点研发计划、国家自然科学基金、湖南省重点研发计划、湖南省自然科学基金、中南大学创新驱动研究计划、中南大学中央高校基础研究基金。
{"title":"Bidirectional association identified between synovitis and knee and hand osteoarthritis: a general population-based study","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101169","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101169","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>Synovitis has long been considered a common and modifiable inflammatory feature of osteoarthritis (OA), but current disease-modifying anti-inflammatory treatments appear ineffective in OA clinical trials. Elucidating the temporal relationship between synovitis and OA could provide insight into the role of synovitis in OA.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>We conducted a prospective cohort study based on the baseline and three-year follow-up data from the Xiangya Osteoarthritis (XO) Study. We assessed bidirectional associations between ultrasound-detected synovitis and radiographic and symptomatic OA at knee and hand sites using generalized estimating equations. Additionally, we performed bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to test these hypotheses utilising whole-genome sequencing data in the XO population. Age, sex, body mass index, smoking, alcohol consumption, educational level, physical activity, and joint injury history were adjusted for these analyses.</p></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><p>A total of 2211, 2420, 2280, and 2600 participants were enrolled for analyses of radiographic knee OA (RKOA), symptomatic knee OA (SKOA), radiographic hand OA (RHOA) and symptomatic hand OA (SHOA), respectively. The baseline synovitis (i.e., with synovitis vs. without synovitis) was associated with the incident RKOA (76/277 vs. 557/3674 knees), SKOA (49/387 vs. 287/4213 knees), RHOA (171/358 vs. 686/3664 hands) and SHOA (35/689 vs. 76/4327 hands), with adjusted odds ratio (aORs) of 2.2 (95% CI 1.7–3.1), 2.0 (1.3–2.9), 3.4 (2.7–4.4), and 2.4 (1.5–3.8), respectively. The baseline RKOA (with OA vs. without OA: 409/1246 vs. 481/3758 knees), SKOA (200/576 vs. 675/4356 knees), RHOA (192/778 vs. 410/3723 hands), and SHOA (41/162 vs. 548/4285 hands) were also associated with the incident synovitis, with aORs of 3.4 (95% CI 2.9–4.1), 2.7 (2.1–3.4), 2.3 (1.8–2.9) and 1.9 (1.2–2.8), respectively. These bidirectional associations were stronger when more active synovitis was compared with the reference group (all <em>P</em> &lt; 0.05). MR analyses further supported bidirectional associations that synovitis significantly increased the odds of incident OA at both sites and vice versa (all ORs ranged from 1.2–1.7).</p></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><p>Our population-based cohort study found novel evidence of a bidirectional association between synovitis and OA, which was further validated through MR analysis and suggested that the bidirectional association is likely causal. Our findings indicated that synovitis is both a risk factor and a consequence of the OA rather than solely a risk factor.</p></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><p>The <span>National Key Research and Development Plan</span>, the <span>National Natural Science Foundation of China</span>, the <span>Key Research and Development Program of Hunan Province</span>, the <span>Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Province</span>, the <span>Central South University Innovation-Driv","PeriodicalId":22792,"journal":{"name":"The Lancet Regional Health: Western Pacific","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666606524001639/pdfft?md5=86bbf2864a1d938f8f0879c2f2bb2ab0&pid=1-s2.0-S2666606524001639-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141979574","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The risk of hospitalization associated with hot nights and excess nighttime heat in a subtropical metropolis: a time-series study in Hong Kong, 2000–2019 亚热带大都市炎热夜晚与夜间过量高温相关的住院风险:2000-2019 年香港时间序列研究
IF 7.6 1区 医学 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2024-08-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101168

Background

Recent studies showed increased mortality risks after hot nights, but their effect on hospitalizations, especially in vulnerable populations, remains under-studied.

Methods

Daily hospitalization, meteorological (including hourly), and air pollution data were collected for the hot seasons (May–October) of 2000–19 in Hong Kong. We derived three hot-night metrics: HNday28 °C, daily minimum temperature ≥28 °C, the governmental definition of hot nights; HNe, hot night excess calculated by summing heat excess of hourly temperatures above 28 °C at night; and HNday90th, hot nights classified using the 90th percentile HNe (17.7 °C⋅h) as a cutoff. We fitted time-series regression with distributed lag nonlinear models to examine the associations of hot-night metrics with various hospitalizations.

Findings

During the 3680 study days, 5,002,114 non-cancer non-external (NCNE) hospitalizations were recorded. Half (1874) of the days experienced excess nighttime heat (HNe>0) with a mean (SD) of 8.0 (6.8) °C⋅h; 499 and 187 hot nights were identified by HNday28 °C and HNday90th, respectively. Extreme HNe (99th percentile vs 0 °C⋅h) was significantly associated with increased NCNE hospitalizations over lag 0–4 days by 3.1% [95% confidence interval: 1.5%, 4.8%] overall, with enhanced effects in elderly (5.3% [3.2%, 7.4%]), low-SES individuals (5.3% [2.8%, 8.0%]), and circulatory admissions (3.4% [0.2%, 6.8%]). HNday90th, reflecting extreme HNe, better identified hazardous hot nights than the official HNday28 °C.

Interpretation

Excessive nighttime heat is significantly associated with increased hospitalizations, particularly affecting the elderly and socioeconomically disadvantaged individuals. Nighttime heat intensity should be incorporated in defining hot nights with public health relevance.

Funding

British Heart Foundation.

方法收集了香港 2000-19 年炎热季节(5 月至 10 月)的每日住院、气象(包括每小时)和空气污染数据。我们得出了三个热夜指标:HNday28 °C,每日最低气温≥28 °C,这是政府对热夜的定义;HNe,热夜过量,由夜间每小时气温超过 28 °C的热量过量总和计算得出;HNday90th,以 HNe 的第 90 个百分位数(17.7 °C⋅h)为分界线划分的热夜。我们利用分布式滞后非线性模型进行了时间序列回归,以检验热夜指标与各种住院情况之间的关联。研究结果在 3680 个研究日期间,共记录了 5,002,114 例非癌症非外部住院 (NCNE)。其中有一半(1874 天)的研究日经历了夜间过热(HNe>0),平均值(标度)为 8.0 (6.8) °C⋅h;根据 HNday28 °C 和 HNday90th 分别确定了 499 个和 187 个热夜。极端 HNe(第 99 百分位数 vs 0 ℃-h)与滞后 0-4 天的 NCNE 住院率显著相关,总体增加了 3.1% [95% 置信区间:1.5%, 4.8%],对老年人(5.3% [3.2%, 7.4%])、社会经济地位较低者(5.3% [2.8%, 8.0%])和循环系统入院者(3.4% [0.2%, 6.8%])的影响更大。与官方的 HNday28 °C 相比,反映极端 HNe 的 HNday90th 能更好地识别危险的高温之夜。在定义与公共卫生相关的炎热夜晚时,应考虑夜间热强度。
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引用次数: 0
Effect of the national integrated demonstration area for the prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases programme on behavioural risk factors in China: a synthetic difference-in-differences study 国家级非传染性疾病综合防控示范区项目对中国行为风险因素的影响:差异合成研究
IF 7.6 1区 医学 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2024-08-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101167

Background

The government-led community-based Chinese National Integrated Demonstration Areas for the Prevention and Control of Noncommunicable Diseases programme was launched in 2011, but no rigorous impact evaluation has been conducted to date. We aimed to evaluate the causal effects of this programme on behavioural risk factors.

Methods

We used data from the latest five waves of the China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance. The primary outcome is a behavioural risk score combining current smoking, passive smoking, drinking in last month, regular exercise, body mass index, and waist circumference. We applied the synthetic difference-in-differences method and constructed synthetic controls from the non-demonstration areas with the outcome. The average treatment effects on the treated were estimated for overall effect and by short- (1–2), medium- (3–4), and long-term (6–7 years) effects.

Findings

We identified 26 demonstration areas (N = 72,193) and 100 non-demonstration areas (N = 275,397). Participants in the demonstration areas had higher education and income levels and different pre-implementation trends than non-demonstration areas. Using synthetic controls instead of non-demonstration areas reduced these pre-implementation differences. Compared to the synthetic controls, declines were observed in current smoking (−1.78% [−4.51%, 0.96%]), passive smoking (−8.09% [−14.27%, −1.90%]), and drinking in last month (−4.04% [−8.75%, 0.67%]) but not in the other factors. Behavioural risk score declined by 1.05 short-term (95% CI: −1.84, −0.26), 1.15 medium-term (95% CI: −2.08, −0.22), 2.82 long-term (95% CI: −4.79, −0.85), and 1.54 overall (95% CI: −2.51, −0.56).

Interpretation

The programme improved behavioural risk scores, primarily through reductions in the prevalence of smoking and drinking, and the effect was long-lasting. Our findings provided empirical evidence for utilizing an integrated prevention and control strategy to fight against NCD in China and other countries facing similar challenges.

Funding

The China National Key Research and Development Program (2018YFC1315304 and 2017YFC1310902); National Natural Science Foundation of China (81872721).

背景由政府主导、以社区为基础的中国国家非传染性疾病综合防控示范区项目于 2011 年启动,但迄今为止尚未进行过严格的影响评估。我们的目的是评估该项目对行为风险因素的因果影响。方法我们使用了最近五次中国慢性病及危险因素监测的数据。主要结果是结合当前吸烟、被动吸烟、上月饮酒、经常锻炼、体重指数和腰围的行为风险评分。我们采用了合成差分法,并在非示范区建立了具有该结果的合成对照。我们估算了总体效果以及短期(1-2 年)、中期(3-4 年)和长期(6-7 年)效果对被治疗者的平均治疗效果。与非示范区相比,示范区参与者的教育和收入水平更高,实施前的趋势也不同。使用合成对照组代替非示范区缩小了这些实施前的差异。与合成对照组相比,当前吸烟率(-1.78% [-4.51%, 0.96%])、被动吸烟率(-8.09% [-14.27%, -1.90%] )和上月饮酒率(-4.04% [-8.75%, 0.67%])均有所下降,但其他因素没有下降。行为风险得分短期下降了 1.05(95% CI:-1.84,-0.26),中期下降了 1.15(95% CI:-2.08,-0.22),长期下降了 2.82(95% CI:-4.79,-0.85),总体下降了 1.54(95% CI:-2.51,-0.56)。我们的研究结果为中国及其他面临类似挑战的国家利用综合防控策略防治非传染性疾病提供了经验证据。
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引用次数: 0
Cost and budget impact of mass drug administration compared to expanded school-based targeted preventive chemotherapy for soil-transmitted helminth control in Zamboanga Peninsula, the Philippines 菲律宾三宝颜半岛在控制土壤传播蠕虫方面,大规模用药与扩大校本定向预防性化疗的成本和预算影响比较
IF 7.6 1区 医学 Q1 HEALTH CARE SCIENCES & SERVICES Pub Date : 2024-08-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101162

Background

School-based targeted preventive chemotherapy (PC), the primary strategy for soil-transmitted helminth (STH) control, typically focusing on primary schoolchildren, was expanded to secondary school students in the Philippines in 2016. This program still excludes adults, who may also suffer from considerable morbidity and can be a significant reservoir of infection. Mass drug administration (MDA), where the entire population is treated, would bring additional health benefits but will also increase implementation costs. The incremental cost of implementing MDA for STH control compared to expanded school-based targeted PC, however, is unknown.

Methods

A cost survey was conducted in Zamboanga Peninsula region in 2021 to estimate the economic and financial cost of implementing MDA compared to the expanded school-based targeted PC from a government payer perspective. A budget impact analysis was conducted to estimate the financial cost to the government of implementing MDA over a five-year timeframe. Monte Carlo simulation accounted for uncertainty in cost estimates. Costs were reported in 2021 United States Dollars ($).

Findings

The economic cost of MDA was $809,000 per year (95% CI: $679,000–$950,000) or $0.22 per person targeted (95% CI: $0.19–$0.26), while the expanded school-based targeted PC would cost $625,000 (95% CI: $549,000–$706,000) or $0.57 per person targeted (95% CI: $0.50–$0.64). Over five years, the financial cost to the government for MDA would be $3,113,000 (95% CI: $2,475,000–$3,810,000); $740,000 (95% CI: $486,000–$1,019,000) higher than expanded school-based targeted PC.

Interpretation

Implementing MDA in the region will increase the economic and financial costs by 29% and 31%, respectively, when compared to expanded school-based targeted PC. Implementing MDA would require the Department of Health to increase their total expenditure for STH control by 0.2% and could be key in addressing the ongoing STH burden.

Funding

The project was funded by the Australian Centre for the Control and Elimination of Neglected Tropical Diseases (NHMRC GA19028), and JPCDT was supported by a UNSW Scientia PhD Scholarship. SVN is funded by an NHMRC Investigator Grant (APP 2018220).

背景以学校为基础的定向预防性化疗(PC)是控制土壤传播蠕虫(STH)的主要策略,通常以小学生为重点,2016 年菲律宾将其扩展到中学生。该计划仍将成人排除在外,而成人也可能会有相当高的发病率,并可能成为重要的感染源。大规模用药(MDA)是指对所有人群进行治疗,这将带来更多的健康益处,但也会增加实施成本。方法 2021 年在三宝颜半岛地区进行了一项成本调查,从政府支付方的角度估算了实施大规模给药与扩大学校定向 PC 相比的经济和财务成本。进行了预算影响分析,以估算政府在五年时间内实施 MDA 的财务成本。蒙特卡洛模拟法考虑了成本估算的不确定性。研究结果:MDA 的经济成本为每年 80.9 万美元(95% CI:67.9 万美元-95 万美元),即每个目标人群 0.22 美元(95% CI:0.19 美元-0.26 美元),而扩大的校内目标 PC 的成本为 62.5 万美元(95% CI:54.9 万美元-70.6 万美元),即每个目标人群 0.57 美元(95% CI:0.50 美元-0.64 美元)。在五年内,政府为实施 MDA 所承担的财务成本为 3,113,000 美元(95% CI:2,475,000-3,810,000 美元);比扩大的校本目标 PC 高出 740,000 美元(95% CI:486,000-1,019,000 美元)。该项目由澳大利亚控制和消除被忽视热带病中心(NHMRC GA19028)资助,JPCDT 得到了新南威尔士大学科学博士奖学金的支持。SVN由NHMRC调查员资助金(APP 2018220)资助。
{"title":"Cost and budget impact of mass drug administration compared to expanded school-based targeted preventive chemotherapy for soil-transmitted helminth control in Zamboanga Peninsula, the Philippines","authors":"","doi":"10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101162","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101162","url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Background</h3><p>School-based targeted preventive chemotherapy (PC), the primary strategy for soil-transmitted helminth (STH) control, typically focusing on primary schoolchildren, was expanded to secondary school students in the Philippines in 2016. This program still excludes adults, who may also suffer from considerable morbidity and can be a significant reservoir of infection. Mass drug administration (MDA), where the entire population is treated, would bring additional health benefits but will also increase implementation costs. The incremental cost of implementing MDA for STH control compared to expanded school-based targeted PC, however, is unknown.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>A cost survey was conducted in Zamboanga Peninsula region in 2021 to estimate the economic and financial cost of implementing MDA compared to the expanded school-based targeted PC from a government payer perspective. A budget impact analysis was conducted to estimate the financial cost to the government of implementing MDA over a five-year timeframe. Monte Carlo simulation accounted for uncertainty in cost estimates. Costs were reported in 2021 United States Dollars ($).</p></div><div><h3>Findings</h3><p>The economic cost of MDA was $809,000 per year (95% CI: $679,000–$950,000) or $0.22 per person targeted (95% CI: $0.19–$0.26), while the expanded school-based targeted PC would cost $625,000 (95% CI: $549,000–$706,000) or $0.57 per person targeted (95% CI: $0.50–$0.64). Over five years, the financial cost to the government for MDA would be $3,113,000 (95% CI: $2,475,000–$3,810,000); $740,000 (95% CI: $486,000–$1,019,000) higher than expanded school-based targeted PC.</p></div><div><h3>Interpretation</h3><p>Implementing MDA in the region will increase the economic and financial costs by 29% and 31%, respectively, when compared to expanded school-based targeted PC. Implementing MDA would require the Department of Health to increase their total expenditure for STH control by 0.2% and could be key in addressing the ongoing STH burden.</p></div><div><h3>Funding</h3><p>The project was funded by the Australian Centre for the <span>Control and Elimination of Neglected Tropical Diseases</span> (NHMRC GA19028), and <span>JPCDT</span> was supported by a <span>UNSW</span> Scientia PhD Scholarship. SVN is funded by an <span>NHMRC</span> Investigator Grant (APP 2018220).</p></div>","PeriodicalId":22792,"journal":{"name":"The Lancet Regional Health: Western Pacific","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":7.6,"publicationDate":"2024-08-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666606524001561/pdfft?md5=8abc026dd71d2fd411345bd741dd6c90&pid=1-s2.0-S2666606524001561-main.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141962896","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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The Lancet Regional Health: Western Pacific
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