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Impact Of International Trade On Indonesia's Consume Of Renewable Energy 国际贸易对印尼可再生能源消费的影响
Pub Date : 2022-10-30 DOI: 10.54204/aebd/vol5no1october2022012
Nur Lailatul Amaliyah, Arifatul Inayah, Wempi Aprilla Maulanasyah Para Wibangga
This research intends to look into the exports percent of GDP, imports percent of GDP, and percentage of renewable energy in the GDP's total energy usage. This study uses data from 1999 to 2019 It was constructed using secondary data from the World Bank. The method used is quantitative by modeling the Model for Vector Error Correction (VECM) using exports, imports, and consumption of renewable energy in Indonesia as variables. We found that Causality or causal relationship occurs in renewable energy consumption variables that affect imports, import variables affect exports and vice versa export variables affect imports. This shows that using renewable energy is encourages imports and exports in Indonesia. So that international trade has a significant role in encouraging the renewable energy usage.
本研究旨在探讨出口占GDP的百分比,进口占GDP的百分比,以及可再生能源占GDP总能源使用量的百分比。本研究使用1999年至2019年的数据,使用世界银行的二手数据构建。使用的方法是定量的,通过对向量误差校正模型(VECM)建模,以印度尼西亚的出口、进口和可再生能源消费为变量。研究发现,可再生能源消费变量影响进口,进口变量影响出口,反之,出口变量影响进口存在因果关系或因果关系。这表明使用可再生能源鼓励了印尼的进出口。因此,国际贸易在鼓励使用可再生能源方面发挥着重要作用。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact Of Monetary Policy On Indonesian Bank Loans 货币政策对印尼银行贷款的影响
Pub Date : 2022-10-30 DOI: 10.54204/aebd/vol5no1october2022002
Zakina Rulinda Hijjas, Rini Agustiya
This article discusse monetary policy's impact on bank borrowing. The data selected are Indonesian state data and the annual research period for 13 years from 2008 - 2020 with secondary data from the world bank. This study investigates wide money as a percentage of Gdp, Interest payment percent of expense, Domestic credit to private sector by banks percent of GDP. This study uses a quantitative method with an autoregressive vector model with the results of data processing showing that there is no reciprocal or two-way relationship between the three variables. This study found that monetary policy's impact can have macroeconomic action by increasing or limiting the supply of bank loans. This is evidenced by the different magnitudes of growth in lending in various sectors reflecting the growing effects of monetary policy.
本文讨论了货币政策对银行借贷的影响。所选数据为印尼国家数据,年度研究周期为2008 - 2020年共13年,辅助数据来自世界银行。该研究调查了广义货币占Gdp的百分比,利息支付占支出的百分比,银行向私营部门提供的国内信贷占Gdp的百分比。本研究采用自回归向量模型的定量方法,数据处理结果表明,这三个变量之间不存在互反关系或双向关系。本研究发现,货币政策的影响可以通过增加或限制银行贷款的供应来产生宏观经济作用。不同部门的贷款增长幅度不同,反映出货币政策的影响日益增强,这证明了这一点。
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引用次数: 0
Will the US-China Trade War’s Abnormal Returns From China Have an Effect on the Chinese Economy? 中美贸易战对中国的异常回报会对中国经济产生影响吗?
Pub Date : 2022-10-30 DOI: 10.54204/aebd/vol5no1october2022011
Anggun Astri Anggraini, Devi Lidia
This studies objective is to look at China's abnormal return in the event of a tariff war between the US and China. Data categories that are quantitative, or that can be expressed as numbers or ratos, are used in this study and uses utilizes auxiliary data sources in the form of historical data from all countries recorded on the data.worldbank.org website. The kind of data used is annual data series and will be adjusted to the factors affected by the tariff war between America and China. The VAR Analysis Model through the ADF Unit Root Test using the variables GDP, Tariff (TAX), and Exchange Rate (REX) in China from 1990 to 2021 is one of the data analysis strategies utilized in this study. We found that China's GDP is significantly positively to the Chinese exchange rate. Both China's own exchange rate and its tariffs are significantly influenced favorably by China's exchange rate. The tariffs applied by China have a significant negative correlation, which means that the increase in China's tariffs injures China's own economy. However, the rate at which the Chinese currency is exchanged and tariffs in China are significantly positively correlated. The trade war with the USA is not only bad for the global economy but also bad for the Chinese economy. And likely get a detrimental effect into the US economy.
本研究的目的是研究在中美关税战争的情况下,中国的异常回报。本研究中使用的数据类别是定量的,或者可以用数字或比率表示的数据类别,并使用了辅助数据源,即data.worldbank.org网站上记录的所有国家的历史数据。使用的数据类型为年度数据系列,并将根据中美关税战的影响因素进行调整。通过ADF单位根检验的VAR分析模型使用变量GDP,关税(税)和汇率(REX)在中国从1990年到2021年是本研究中使用的数据分析策略之一。我们发现,中国的GDP对人民币汇率显著正相关。中国自身的汇率和关税都受到中国汇率的显著有利影响。中国征收的关税具有显著的负相关关系,这意味着中国关税的增加损害了中国自身的经济。然而,人民币汇率与中国的关税显著正相关。与美国的贸易战不仅不利于全球经济,也不利于中国经济。并可能对美国经济产生不利影响。
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引用次数: 0
The Effects Energy Consumption, Export, GDP, and Import on Indonesia’s Emission of CO2 能源消费、出口、GDP和进口对印尼二氧化碳排放的影响
Pub Date : 2022-10-30 DOI: 10.54204/aebd/vol5no1october2022001
Oky Lestari
The purpose of this study is to examine the connection between exports, imports, GDP, and energy consumption on Indonesia's CO2 emissions used the World Bank data. This research is a type of quantitative research using VAR (Vector Autoregression) estimation. The data used comes from secondary data in a time series from 1971-2014. The data analysis technique in this study used the Vector-Autoregression (VAR) method. The tests performed include the optimum lag, Granger causality test, cointegration test, stationary test, VAR stability test, Impulse Response Function, and Variance Decontamination test. This study found that an increase in economic activity, in general, will affect an increase in CO2 gas emissions, which is caused by the large energy consumption of the economy. The increase in CO2 emissions will cause climate change, thus causing environmental damage. The Granger causality test analysis demonstrates the exports no one has any effect on CO2 emissions.So with imports, there is also no causality to CO2. The VAR analysis test also explains that export and import activities have no significant effect on increasing CO2 because both variables' values are higher than with the t-statistics' values. So, international trade has no effect on increasing CO2 and environmental degradation. According to the study's findings, CO2 emissions can rise as a result of energy usage.
本研究的目的是利用世界银行的数据检验出口、进口、GDP和能源消耗对印度尼西亚二氧化碳排放的关系。本研究是一种使用VAR (Vector Autoregression)估计的定量研究。所用数据来自1971-2014年时间序列的二次数据。本研究的数据分析技术采用向量自回归(VAR)方法。检验包括最优滞后检验、格兰杰因果检验、协整检验、平稳性检验、VAR稳定性检验、脉冲响应函数检验和方差去污检验。本研究发现,经济活动的增加一般会影响二氧化碳气体排放量的增加,这是由经济的大量能源消耗造成的。二氧化碳排放量的增加会引起气候变化,从而造成环境破坏。格兰杰因果检验分析表明,出口对CO2排放没有任何影响。所以就进口而言,二氧化碳也没有因果关系。VAR分析检验还解释了出口和进口活动对增加CO2没有显著影响,因为两个变量的值都高于t统计值。因此,国际贸易对二氧化碳的增加和环境的恶化没有影响。根据这项研究的发现,二氧化碳排放量会因能源使用而上升。
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引用次数: 0
Import Tariffs to Reduce the Use and Consumption of Fossil Energy in Indonesia 进口关税以减少印尼化石能源的使用和消费
Pub Date : 2022-10-30 DOI: 10.54204/aebd/vol5no1october2022009
Mauvirah Dwi Sholeha
This Research aims to simulate the application of import tariffs on reducing the use of fossil energy and the impact of using alternative energy on minimizing the use of fossil fuels in Indonesia. This research method applies VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) model to analyze the effect vectors on Energy Use, usage of energy from fossil fuels, and Import Costs with the research period from 1999 to 2020. The data used in this analysis is time series. This secondary data was used in the study. secondary data from the World Bank. We found that import tariffs have a significant effect on reducing using fossil fuels in Indonesia. Where the application of environmental taxes can be effective in limiting the use of fossil energy and increasing environmental sustainability. This is related to a sustainable economy. The utilizing energy itself has no significant effect on the use of fossil energy and import tariffs. This shows that the use of alternatives has not significantly reduced the use of fossil fuels in Indonesia.
本研究旨在模拟进口关税对减少化石能源使用的应用,以及使用替代能源对尽量减少印度尼西亚化石燃料使用的影响。本研究方法采用VECM (Vector Error Correction Model)模型,以1999年至2020年为研究期,分析能源使用、化石燃料能源使用和进口成本的影响向量。本分析中使用的数据是时间序列。本研究使用了这些二手数据。来自世界银行的二手数据。我们发现,进口关税对印尼减少使用化石燃料有显著影响。征收环境税可以有效地限制矿物能源的使用和提高环境的可持续性。这与可持续经济有关。能源利用本身对化石能源使用和进口关税没有显著影响。这表明,替代品的使用并没有显著减少印度尼西亚对化石燃料的使用。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of Factors Affecting Economic Growth in Indonesia 影响印尼经济增长的因素分析
Pub Date : 2022-10-30 DOI: 10.54204/aebd/vol5no1october2022004
Eka Erina Putri, Mukarromatul Azizatun Naimah
In these research intend to determine the factors that influence Indonesia's growth which includes human resources and technology using time series data from 2000 to 2019. To understand the connection between advances in human resources and technology on economic growth, the researcher uses autoregressive vector analysis. The researcher uses the variables of gross domestic product, health, capital, work participation, and internet users to represent technology. The results show that the quality of human resources will affect economic growth in Indonesia and as well provide a significant boost to the workforce and health. Where the labor force or work participation and health are considered the most important factors to increase human capital. This shows that investment in human resources is very important for economic growth. The output also show that technology has no effect on economic growth. This is due to increased economic growth, and decreased government spending on research and technology.
在这些研究中,打算利用2000年至2019年的时间序列数据确定影响印度尼西亚增长的因素,包括人力资源和技术。为了了解人力资源和技术进步对经济增长的影响,研究者采用了自回归向量分析。研究人员使用国内生产总值、健康、资本、工作参与和互联网用户等变量来代表技术。结果表明,人力资源的质量将影响印度尼西亚的经济增长,并为劳动力和健康提供重大推动。劳动力或工作参与和健康被认为是增加人力资本的最重要因素。由此可见,人力资源投资对经济增长非常重要。产出还表明,技术对经济增长没有影响。这是由于经济增长加快,政府在研究和技术上的支出减少。
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引用次数: 0
The Effect Of The Financial Crisis On Export Competitiveness In Indonesia 金融危机对印尼出口竞争力的影响
Pub Date : 2022-10-30 DOI: 10.54204/aebd/vol5no1october2022007
Shanti Fitria
The study aims to investigate inflation and exports, and interest rates with a research period from 1990 to 2021. VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) is the analytical technique have been used to ascertain the vector causality link between variables. Utilized secondary data in this investigation. Obtained using official World Bank statistics. We discovered that strengthening the rupiah currency rate is only marginally positively impacted by increasing competition in Indonesian exports. However, inflation in Indonesia significantly depresses the currency exchange rate which has a pressing upon suppressing how much exports can value. This is because the rupiah exchange rate significantly boosts exports. When inflation depresses the value of the rupiah, it has a great effect on its suppression in terms of the rupiah exchange rate which continues to suppress Indonesia's export competitiveness.
该研究旨在调查通货膨胀、出口和利率,研究时间为1990年至2021年。矢量误差修正模型(VECM)是一种用于确定变量之间的矢量因果关系的分析技术。在这次调查中使用了二手数据。根据世界银行官方统计数据得出。我们发现,加强印尼盾货币汇率只有轻微的积极影响,增加印尼出口的竞争。然而,印度尼西亚的通货膨胀大大压低了货币汇率,这对抑制出口的价值有很大的压力。这是因为印尼盾汇率显著促进了出口。当通货膨胀压低印尼盾的价值时,它对印尼盾汇率的抑制作用很大,印尼盾汇率继续抑制印尼的出口竞争力。
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引用次数: 1
Assesing The Relationship Between Oil Rent, Energy Consumption, And Government Expenditure In Indonesia 评估印尼石油租金、能源消费和政府支出之间的关系
Pub Date : 2022-10-30 DOI: 10.54204/aebd/vol5no1october2022010
Muhammad Rama Ma'rufin, Muhammad Ikrom Alfareza
This study was conducted in Indonesia to analyze the relationship between oil rent, energy consumption, and government spending. This study uses annual data obtained from world bank publications. The data analysis method used is VECM. This study finds in Indonesia, there is a three-way casual relationship between energy use and oil rent, but no causal relationship between variables. This indicates in the greater Indonesian energy consumption, the higher the profit level of Indonesia's oil and gas sector. Energy consumption has no impact on government expenditure in Indonesia. So that the policy of limiting the consumption of fossil fuels such as environmental taxes does not significantly suppress the state's development from government expenditure and can actually increase state revenues so that it has the potential to increase development. Suggestions for future research is to include including environmental tax variables to measure potential environmental tax revenues in Indonesia.
这项研究是在印度尼西亚进行的,目的是分析石油租金、能源消耗和政府支出之间的关系。本研究使用从世界银行出版物获得的年度数据。使用的数据分析方法为VECM。本研究发现,在印度尼西亚,能源使用与石油租金之间存在三方因果关系,但变量之间没有因果关系。这表明,印尼能源消耗越大,印尼石油和天然气部门的利润水平就越高。印尼的能源消耗对政府支出没有影响。因此,环境税等限制化石燃料消费的政策并不会从政府支出中明显抑制国家的发展,实际上可以增加国家的收入,从而具有促进发展的潜力。对未来研究的建议是包括环境税收变量来衡量印尼潜在的环境税收收入。
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引用次数: 0
Testing Hecksher Ohlin Theory : Evidence From Singapore In 1991-2016 检验Hecksher Ohlin理论:1991-2016年新加坡的证据
Pub Date : 2022-10-30 DOI: 10.54204/aebd/vol5no1october2022008
Firlana Annisa’ Fajrin, Wahyu Dwi Nur Hidayatullah
This research aims to test Hecksher Ohlin's theory with a capital-intensive country in Asia, namely Singapore with the research period 1991-2016. The time period was chosen to avoid a significant shock, namely the covid 19 that occurred in 2020. However, taking into account the effect of the Asian financial crisis in 1997, the 1991 - 2016 time period was chosen. The data used and obtained are from the World Bank. We examine the variables of labor, investment, consumer price index and export. This study uses VECM Modelling. According to Hecksher Ohlin's theory, a capital-intensive country like Singapore will export its goods and services which has a positive and significant relation with investment. The research's findings support the Hecksher-Ohlin Theory. However, employment is also positively related to investment in Singapore. This is very rational even though Singapore uses a capital-intensive system but still requires manpower. Likewise, the CPI is also significantly positive regarding investment in Singapore, proving that Singapore's production is not only for export orientation but also to meet domestic consumption.
本研究旨在以1991-2016年的亚洲资本密集型国家新加坡为研究对象,检验Hecksher Ohlin的理论。选择这段时间是为了避免重大冲击,即2020年发生的covid - 19。然而,考虑到1997年亚洲金融危机的影响,我们选择了1991 - 2016年的时间段。所使用和获得的数据来自世界银行。我们考察了劳动力、投资、消费者价格指数和出口等变量。本研究采用VECM建模。根据Hecksher Ohlin的理论,像新加坡这样的资本密集型国家会出口其商品和服务,这与投资有着积极而显著的关系。这项研究的发现支持了Hecksher-Ohlin理论。然而,就业也与新加坡的投资呈正相关。这是非常合理的,尽管新加坡采用资本密集型体系,但仍需要人力。同样,在新加坡的投资方面,CPI也显著正向,这证明新加坡的生产不仅是为了出口,也是为了满足国内消费。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of International Trade on Global Food Security and Energy Use 国际贸易对全球粮食安全和能源使用的影响
Pub Date : 2022-10-30 DOI: 10.54204/aebd/vol5no1october2022005
Dwi Nur Farida
This study examines the effects of global trade, Food Security, and the use of fossil energy in Indonesia before covid 19 and before the Ukraine-Russian war.This study uses a fairly long period of time, namely from 1974 to 2014. The determination of the period of this research is to investigate the consequences on international trade, Indonesian food security with indicators of Indonesia's net food export, and the use of fossil energy in Indonesia. We avoid the shock of covid 19 and the Ukraine - Russia war so that our estimation results can provide a more accurate estimate. We use a model on vector error correction to investigate causality in between two method. We found the impact of global trade significant effect on food security and energy use. Where when there is a disturbance in the world supply chain, such as a war, it will have an impact on world food security and energy use. Food security is important for humanity and international trade is important in maintaining supply chains for global food security.
本研究考察了全球贸易、粮食安全和化石能源使用对印度尼西亚在2019冠状病毒病之前和乌克兰-俄罗斯战争之前的影响。本研究使用了相当长的一段时间,即从1974年到2014年。本研究期间的确定是为了调查对国际贸易的影响,印尼的粮食安全与印尼的净粮食出口指标,以及化石能源在印尼的使用。我们避免了covid - 19和乌克兰-俄罗斯战争的冲击,以便我们的估计结果可以提供更准确的估计。我们使用向量误差修正模型来研究两种方法之间的因果关系。我们发现全球贸易对粮食安全和能源使用的影响显著。当世界供应链受到干扰时,比如战争,它将对世界粮食安全和能源使用产生影响。粮食安全对人类至关重要,国际贸易对维持全球粮食安全供应链至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
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ASIAN Economic and Business Development
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