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Temperature Forecasting as a Means of Mitigating Climate Change and Its Effects: A Case Study of Mali 温度预报作为减缓气候变化的手段及其影响——以马里为例
Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.17737/tre.2023.9.2.00158
Utibe Billy
Temperature forecasts and trend analyzes were carried out for several locations in Mali as an important tool for warning of potentially threatening weather events such as severe heat waves, storms, droughts and floods, which could pose a great risk to humans and their environment. Five locations (Segou, Sikasso, Kayes, Gao and Taoudenni) across Mali (170 00’N – 40 00’W) were chosen for this research work. Satellite data of annual temperature obtained from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) database for 35 years (1985-2019) was used for this work. The Mann-Kendall trend test was carried out for various locations to observe and study the trend. Four Models including Auto Regressive and Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Exponential smoothening (ETS), TBATS (Trigonometric seasonality, Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components) and the linear model were employed to forecast average temperature for 10 years for all the locations. The model that produces the best forecast at the 95% confidence level is expected to have the lowest Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) value. The results showed that no significant trends were recorded at the considered locations. The linear model produced the best forecast for Segou, Kayes and Taoudenni, while the TBATS model produced the best forecast for Gao and the ARIMA model produced the best forecast for Sikasso.
在马里的几个地点进行了温度预报和趋势分析,作为警告潜在威胁天气事件的重要工具,如严重的热浪、风暴、干旱和洪水,这些天气事件可能对人类及其环境构成巨大风险。马里(1700n - 4000w)的五个地点(Segou, Sikasso, Kayes, Gao和Taoudenni)被选为这项研究工作。这项工作使用了从欧洲中期天气预报中心(ECMWF)数据库获得的35年(1985-2019)年温度卫星数据。对不同地点进行Mann-Kendall趋势检验,观察和研究趋势。采用自回归和综合移动平均(ARIMA)、指数平滑(ETS)、TBATS(三角季节性、Box-Cox变换、ARMA误差、趋势和季节成分)和线性模型对各地区10年平均气温进行了预测。在95%置信水平下产生最佳预测的模型预计具有最低的均方根误差(RMSE)值。结果显示,在考虑的地点没有记录到明显的趋势。线性模型对Segou、Kayes和Taoudenni的预测效果最好,而TBATS模型对Gao的预测效果最好,ARIMA模型对Sikasso的预测效果最好。
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引用次数: 0
Optimized Lightweight Frame for Intelligent New-energy Vehicles 智能新能源汽车轻量化车架优化
Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.17737/tre.2023.9.2.00159
Peipei Wu
In this paper, a joint optimization method based on multi-objective response surface approximation model and finite element simulation program is proposed to realize the lightweight optimization of new-energy vehicle frames. Under the premise of satisfying the constraints of strength, frequency and vibration, the thickness of different important parts is optimized to achieve the goal of minimizing the quality of intelligent vehicles. In order to obtain the stress distribution of each part and the vibration frequency of the frame, various finite element analyses of the intelligent vehicle frame are analyzed. In order to achieve optimization, this paper adopts the response surface method for multi-objective optimization. Sample data was generated by the central composite design, and the response surface optimization method was used to filter out 5 design variables that had a large impact on the frame. As a result, the weight of the frame was reduced from 25.05 kg to 19.86 kg, a weight reduction of 20.7%, achieving a significant weight reduction effect. This method provides important reference value and guiding significance for the optimization of frame and its lightweight. In this way, the design of the frame can be better optimized to make it lighter, thereby improving the performance of the smart car. At the same time, this method can also be applied to optimization problems in other fields to achieve more efficient and accurate optimization goals.
提出了一种基于多目标响应面近似模型和有限元仿真程序的联合优化方法,实现了新能源汽车车架轻量化优化。在满足强度、频率和振动约束的前提下,对不同重要部件的厚度进行优化,以实现智能汽车质量最小化的目标。为了得到车架各部分的应力分布和振动频率,对智能车架进行了各种有限元分析。为了实现优化,本文采用响应面法进行多目标优化。通过中心复合设计生成样本数据,利用响应面优化方法筛选出对车架影响较大的5个设计变量。由此,车架重量从25.05 kg减少到19.86 kg,减重20.7%,达到了显著的减重效果。该方法对车架的优化和轻量化具有重要的参考价值和指导意义。这样,可以更好地优化车架的设计,使其更轻,从而提高智能汽车的性能。同时,该方法也可以应用于其他领域的优化问题,以达到更高效、准确的优化目标。
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引用次数: 0
Research Progress of Nanofluid Heat Pipes in Automotive Lithium-ion Battery Heat Management Technology 纳米流体热管在汽车锂离子电池热管理技术中的研究进展
Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.17737/tre.2023.9.2.00157
Xinyu Wang, Ya'nan Zhao, Y. Jin
Power batteries are a crucial component of electric vehicles and other electric equipment. Their long-term high-rate discharge generates a lot of heat, which can lead to battery failure, shortened battery life, and even safety accidents if not managed properly. Due to its high thermal conductivity, the heat pipe can quickly conduct heat away from the battery and separate the heat source from the heat sink. In addition, due to its excellent isothermal performance, the heat pipe can also achieve the characteristics of low-temperature preheating and high-temperature cooling of the power battery by reducing the inhomogeneity of the battery temperature field to reduce the temperature difference. In this paper, we review the current state of the art in thermal management of automotive lithium-ion battery, and highlight the current state of thermal management of batteries based on the combination of nanofluids and heat pipes. Finally, the development of nanofluidic heat pipes in lithium-ion battery heat management systems is prospected.
动力电池是电动汽车和其他电动设备的重要组成部分。它们的长期高倍率放电会产生大量的热量,如果管理不当,会导致电池失效,缩短电池寿命,甚至发生安全事故。由于热管的高导热性,它可以快速地将热量从电池中传导出去,并将热源与散热器分开。此外,由于其优异的等温性能,热管还可以通过减少电池温度场的不均匀性来减小温差,从而实现动力电池的低温预热和高温冷却的特性。本文综述了汽车锂离子电池热管理的研究现状,重点介绍了基于纳米流体和热管相结合的电池热管理的研究现状。最后,对纳米流体热管在锂离子电池热管理系统中的应用前景进行了展望。
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引用次数: 0
A Review of Low Temperature Combustion Mode of Engine 发动机低温燃烧方式研究进展
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17737/tre.2023.9.2.00160
Q. Hao
Since the 21st century, people's increasing attention to fuel economy and environmental issues has prompted the engine research community to continuously develop new efficient and clean combustion theories and methods. In terms of combustion technology, many researchers have proposed different new engine combustion methods, such as homogeneous charge compression ignition combustion (HCCI), premixed charge compression combustion (PCCI), and reaction controlled compression ignition (RCCI), which are the three main low-temperature combustion methods. These combustion methods are different from the premixed combustion method of the spark ignition (SI) engine represented by the traditional gasoline engine and the diffusion combustion method of the compression ignition (CI) engine represented by the traditional diesel engine. The flame temperature affects the combustion and emission process of the engine, and realizes the efficient and clean combustion of the engine. This paper first briefly describes the conventional engine combustion method, and then briefly summarizes the comparison between these three low-temperature combustion methods and their respective combustion and emission characteristics as well as advantages and disadvantages, with respect to the conventional combustion method.
21世纪以来,人们对燃油经济性和环境问题的日益关注,促使发动机研究界不断开发新的高效清洁燃烧理论和方法。在燃烧技术方面,许多研究者提出了不同的新型发动机燃烧方式,如均质装药压缩点火燃烧(HCCI)、预混装药压缩燃烧(PCCI)和反应控制压缩燃烧(RCCI),这是目前主要的三种低温燃烧方式。这些燃烧方式不同于传统汽油机为代表的火花点火(SI)发动机的预混燃烧方式和传统柴油机为代表的压缩点火(CI)发动机的扩散燃烧方式。火焰温度影响发动机的燃烧和排放过程,实现发动机的高效清洁燃烧。本文首先对传统的发动机燃烧方式进行了简要的介绍,然后简要总结了这三种低温燃烧方式相对于传统燃烧方式的比较,以及各自的燃烧和排放特性以及优缺点。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of Angstrom-Prescott and Hargreaves-Samani Coefficients on Climate Forcing and Solar PV Technology Selection in West Africa Angstrom-Prescott和Hargreaves-Samani系数对西非气候强迫和太阳能光伏技术选择的影响
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17737/tre.2023.9.1.00150
M. Agbor, S. Udo, Igwe O. Ewona, S. C. Nwokolo, J. Ogbulezie, S. Amadi, Utibe Billy
We evaluated and compared the performance of simulated Angström-Prescott (AP) and Hargreaves-Samani (HS) models on monthly and annual timescales using generalized datasets covering the entire West African region. The fitted AP model yielded more efficient parameters of a = 0.366 and b = 0.459, whereas the HS model produced a 0.216 coefficient based on an annual timescale, which is more suitable in the region compared to coefficients recommended by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (a = 0.25 and b = 0.5) and HS (0.17), respectively. Employing the FAO and HS recommended coefficients will introduce a relative percentage error (RPE) of 18.388% and 27.19% compared to the RPEs of 0.0014% and 0.1036% obtained in this study, respectively. When considering time and resource availability in the absence of ground-measured datasets, the coefficients obtained in this study can be used for predicting global solar radiation within the region. According to the AP and HS coefficients, the polycrystalline module (p-Si) is more reliable than the monocrystalline module (m-Si) because the p-Si module has a higher tendency to withstand the high temperatures projected to affect the region due to its higher intrinsic properties based on the AP and HS coefficients assessment in the region.
我们使用覆盖整个西非地区的广义数据集,评估并比较了模拟Angström-Prescott (AP)和Hargreaves-Samani (HS)模型在月和年时间尺度上的性能。拟合的AP模型得到的有效参数为a = 0.366和b = 0.459,而HS模型得到的基于年时间尺度的系数为0.216,与粮农组织(FAO)推荐的系数(a = 0.25和b = 0.5)和HS推荐的系数(0.17)相比,前者更适合该地区。采用FAO和HS推荐系数将引入18.388%和27.19%的相对百分比误差(RPE),而本研究获得的相对百分比误差分别为0.0014%和0.1036%。在没有地面测量数据集的情况下,考虑时间和资源的可用性,本研究获得的系数可用于预测该区域内的太阳总辐射。根据AP和HS系数,多晶组件(p-Si)比单晶组件(m-Si)更可靠,因为基于AP和HS系数评估,p-Si组件具有更高的本征特性,因此具有更高的耐高温倾向。
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引用次数: 2
Current Status of Research on Methanol as an Alternative Fuel to Conventional Fuels 甲醇作为常规燃料替代燃料的研究现状
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17737/tre.2023.9.1.00147
Dong-Ying Lan
With the rapid development of China's economy and society, the domestic demand for automobiles is growing explosively. At the same time, the dependence of China's crude oil on foreign countries exceeds 65%. This is a great hidden danger to the sustainable development of China's economy and energy security. Automobile consumes a large amount of petroleum resources, and automobile exhaust is one of the main factors causing environmental pollution. In view of the dual pressure of energy saving and emission reduction, methanol has been favored by many researchers for its many advantages (such as cleanliness, environmental protection, renewable and high accessibility). In this paper, the resource extensibility of methanol, the physicochemical properties of methanol, the application characteristics of methanol in internal combustion engine and the comparison of the combustion performance of methanol with traditional fuels are summarized and analyzed.
随着中国经济社会的快速发展,国内对汽车的需求呈爆炸式增长。与此同时,中国原油对外依存度超过65%。这是中国经济可持续发展和能源安全的巨大隐患。汽车消耗大量的石油资源,汽车尾气是造成环境污染的主要因素之一。在节能减排的双重压力下,甲醇因其清洁、环保、可再生、可及性高等诸多优点,受到众多研究者的青睐。本文对甲醇的资源可扩展性、甲醇的理化性质、甲醇在内燃机中的应用特点以及甲醇与传统燃料燃烧性能的比较进行了总结和分析。
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引用次数: 1
A Review of Research on Emission Characteristics of Ethanol-Diesel Blends in Diesel Engines 柴油发动机乙醇-柴油混合燃料排放特性研究综述
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17737/tre.2023.9.2.00155
Meng Chen
This paper reviews research on the emission characteristics of blended ethanol and other fuels. With the rapid development of modern industry, the extensive use of fuel engines has led to increasingly prominent contradictions between energy and the environment. In order to respond to sustainable development and reduce engine emissions in various countries, many scientific research institutions have conducted research on mixed fuels. The research of blended fuel mainly focuses on its sustainability, economy and environmental protection. Compared with gasoline engines, diesel engines have a lower fuel consumption rate and are widely used in heavy industry. But its fuel comes from refining crude oil, which is non-renewable and has poor cleanliness. As an emerging renewable fuel, ethanol is a fuel with good development prospects due to its good cleanliness, wide range of sources and renewable. If ethanol can be used as an alternative fuel for traditional internal combustion engines and diesel engines, it can save some traditional fuels and improve the emission problems of internal combustion engines to a certain extent. This paper introduces the research status of ethanol blended fuels, and the emission characteristics of engines (NOx, HC and CO) under different ethanol ratios and different operating conditions. It can be seen that with the increase of ethanol blending ratio, NOx content will increase, while CO and HC emissions will decrease.
本文综述了混合乙醇与其他燃料的排放特性研究。随着现代工业的快速发展,燃油发动机的广泛使用使得能源与环境的矛盾日益突出。为了响应可持续发展和减少各国发动机排放,许多科研机构对混合燃料进行了研究。混合燃料的研究主要集中在可持续性、经济性和环保性方面。与汽油发动机相比,柴油发动机的燃油消耗率较低,在重工业中得到广泛应用。但它的燃料来自精炼原油,不可再生,清洁度差。乙醇作为一种新兴的可再生燃料,具有清洁性能好、来源广泛、可再生等优点,是一种具有良好发展前景的燃料。如果乙醇可以作为传统内燃机和柴油发动机的替代燃料,可以节省一些传统燃料,并在一定程度上改善内燃机的排放问题。介绍了乙醇混合燃料的研究现状,以及不同乙醇比和不同工况下发动机的排放特性(NOx、HC和CO)。可以看出,随着乙醇掺合比例的增加,NOx含量增加,CO和HC排放量减少。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the Impact of Soiling, Tilt Angle, and Solar Radiation on the Performance of Solar PV Systems 评估污染、倾斜角度和太阳辐射对太阳能光伏系统性能的影响
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17737/tre.2023.9.2.00156
S. C. Nwokolo, Anthony Umunnakwe Obiwulu, S. Amadi, J. Ogbulezie
This research examined the observed datasets and a theoretically derived model for estimating yearly optimum tilt angle (β), maximum incident solar radiation (Hmax), clean gain indicator (CGI), and soiling loss indicator (SLI) at Mumbwa, Zambia, the Mediterranean Region, and low latitude locations across the globe. The cleaned tilted collector emerged as the best performing collector due to Hmax and much higher energy gains compared with the soiled collector. CGI showed an appreciable performance of 0.4737% over -0.4708% on the SLI, indicating that soiling on the surface of photovoltaic (PV) modules significantly depreciates the overall performance of PV modules. Two established empirical models obtained from the literature were compared with the established theoretical model (β=φ). The result revealed that the two models overestimated the observed annual optimum tilt angle in this paper, simply because the models were developed with high latitude location datasets from the Asia continent. However, the newly established monthly and yearly global radiation indicator (GRI) models by the authors in their previous paper performed excellently in the selected representative cities in the Mediterranean region.
本研究对观测数据集和理论推导模型进行了分析,用于估算赞比亚、地中海地区和全球低纬度地区的年最佳倾斜角(β)、最大入射太阳辐射(Hmax)、清洁增益指标(CGI)和污染损失指标(SLI)。由于Hmax和更高的能量增益,清洗后的倾斜集热器成为性能最好的集热器。CGI在SLI上的性能为0.4737%,高于-0.4708%,这表明光伏组件表面的污染显著降低了光伏组件的整体性能。将从文献中得到的两个已建立的经验模型与已建立的理论模型(β=φ)进行比较。结果表明,这两个模型高估了本文观测到的年最佳倾角,原因很简单,这两个模型是基于亚洲大陆的高纬度位置数据集开发的。然而,作者在之前的论文中新建立的月度和年度全球辐射指标(GRI)模型在地中海地区选定的代表性城市中表现出色。
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引用次数: 3
Current Status of Research on Biodiesel as an Alternative Fuel for Internal Combustion Engines 生物柴油作为内燃机替代燃料的研究现状
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17737/tre.2023.9.1.00146
Ganli Liu
In this paper, the research on biodiesel or blending with other fuels is reviewed. Based on the current status of biodiesel research, this paper introduces the current research progress, combustion and emission characteristics, blending with other fuels, and development direction of biodiesel. The combustion, emission, and spray of biodiesel are not exactly the same as diesel, so it is not suitable to be used directly in diesel engines. Biodiesel can be blended with diesel, ethanol, ammonia and other fuels to improve its power performance and reduce harmful emissions. This review can serve as an important reference for those who want to engage in biodiesel research, and a quick understanding of biodiesel research before.
本文综述了生物柴油及其与其他燃料混配的研究进展。本文从生物柴油的研究现状出发,介绍了生物柴油的研究现状、燃烧与排放特点、与其他燃料的掺合以及发展方向。生物柴油的燃烧、排放、喷射等与柴油不完全相同,不宜直接用于柴油机。生物柴油可以与柴油、乙醇、氨等燃料混合,提高动力性,减少有害物质排放。这篇综述可以为那些想要从事生物柴油研究的人提供重要的参考,也可以让他们对生物柴油的研究有一个快速的了解。
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引用次数: 0
Recent Studies on Alternative Fuel of Dimethyl Ether 二甲醚替代燃料研究进展
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.17737/tre.2023.9.1.00148
Jixiang Zhang
With the development of industrialization, a large number of non-renewable fuels (such as coal and crude oil) are consumed, and the harmful substances produced in the combustion process of a large number of fossil fuels have caused serious pollution to the atmosphere, and the harmful gases produced by combustion have caused disastrous damage to the ecological balance. Therefore, finding clean energy and exploring alternative fuels are very important in today's society. This paper mainly reviews the studies on the alternative fuels of dimethyl ether (DME). Firstly, the types of alternative fuels currently researched by society and their respective advantages and disadvantages are analyzed, and the preparation of dimethyl ether and its advantages and disadvantages are analyzed in detail. In addition, the physicochemical properties, combustion and emission characteristics of dimethyl ether and diesel are compared and analyzed. The conclusion is that the injection delay angle of dimethyl ether is larger than that of diesel, the ignition delay period is shorter than that of diesel, and the maximum explosion pressure, maximum pressure rise rate and combustion noise of dimethyl ether are lower than that of diesel. The diffusion combustion speed of DME is faster than that of diesel, and the combustion duration is shorter than that of diesel. At the same time, as an alternative energy, dimethyl ether engine has a significant reduction in NOx emission, a very low level of HC and CO emission, and zero soot emission. In conclusion, the DME engine has good performance and emission characteristics.
随着工业化的发展,大量不可再生燃料(如煤、原油)被消耗,大量化石燃料在燃烧过程中产生的有害物质对大气造成了严重污染,燃烧产生的有害气体对生态平衡造成了灾难性的破坏。因此,寻找清洁能源和探索替代燃料在当今社会是非常重要的。本文主要综述了二甲醚(DME)替代燃料的研究进展。首先,分析了目前社会上研究的替代燃料的种类及其各自的优缺点,并详细分析了二甲醚的制备及其优缺点。此外,还对二甲醚和柴油的理化性质、燃烧和排放特性进行了比较分析。结果表明:二甲醚的喷射延迟角比柴油大,点火延迟期比柴油短,最大爆炸压力、最大升压率和燃烧噪声均低于柴油。二甲醚的扩散燃烧速度比柴油快,燃烧持续时间比柴油短。同时,作为一种替代能源,二甲醚发动机的NOx排放显著降低,HC和CO排放水平极低,烟尘排放为零。综上所述,二甲醚发动机具有良好的性能和排放特性。
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引用次数: 0
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Trends in Renewable Energy
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