S. Ientile, Franzsika Schmidt, C. Chevalier, A. Orcesi, L. Adelaide, B. Nedjar
Maintenance and protection of road infrastructures (RI) against multi-hazard events requires the use of risk assessment to identify threats, to assess vulnerabilities and to evaluate the impact on infrastructure systems according to the probability of occurrence of such threats. Dealing with a complex network system, such as RI, demands the improvement of the risk assessment approach by resorting to the concept of resilient infrastructure, capable of dealing with scenarios linked to disastrous events with the aim of minimizing service interruptions and quickly recovering. In this paper, the network analysis of an RI case study is addressed to obtain a qualitative measure of resilience related to travel patterns of road network. The topology of RI system, a pattern of connections according to graph theory, between components interacting jointly to provide the required functionalities, is supplied by road network data from OpenStreetMap. Then a probabilistic system model is used to define a non-degradated condition and the scenarios of failure events that can affect the network system. For each condition, the evaluation of the related shortest paths, as a measure of the network system performance, provides the qualitative resilience measurement identifying performance criteria or levels of service requirements. The proposed assessment through transport network measures can find application in risk assessment and management by RI owners and managers.
{"title":"ROAD NETWORK ANALYSIS FOR RISK AND RESILIENCE ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK OF ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE SYSTEMS","authors":"S. Ientile, Franzsika Schmidt, C. Chevalier, A. Orcesi, L. Adelaide, B. Nedjar","doi":"10.2495/risk200171","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2495/risk200171","url":null,"abstract":"Maintenance and protection of road infrastructures (RI) against multi-hazard events requires the use of risk assessment to identify threats, to assess vulnerabilities and to evaluate the impact on infrastructure systems according to the probability of occurrence of such threats. Dealing with a complex network system, such as RI, demands the improvement of the risk assessment approach by resorting to the concept of resilient infrastructure, capable of dealing with scenarios linked to disastrous events with the aim of minimizing service interruptions and quickly recovering. In this paper, the network analysis of an RI case study is addressed to obtain a qualitative measure of resilience related to travel patterns of road network. The topology of RI system, a pattern of connections according to graph theory, between components interacting jointly to provide the required functionalities, is supplied by road network data from OpenStreetMap. Then a probabilistic system model is used to define a non-degradated condition and the scenarios of failure events that can affect the network system. For each condition, the evaluation of the related shortest paths, as a measure of the network system performance, provides the qualitative resilience measurement identifying performance criteria or levels of service requirements. The proposed assessment through transport network measures can find application in risk assessment and management by RI owners and managers.","PeriodicalId":23647,"journal":{"name":"WIT transactions on engineering sciences","volume":"24 1","pages":"197-206"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82230936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The timing of integrating the objectives of building’s systems in the architectural design is governed by the decisions architects make. The architectural decisions regarding fire safety measures are, in some cases, hindered by cost. Such constraint keeps fire safety options to a minimum of code compliance considered at a late stage of the architectural design. Integrating and incorporating fire safety objectives at an early stage in the architectural design represents a quandary challenge for architects. This research focuses on assessing the perception of architects in academia and practice regarding their priorities for the early integration of natural smoke ventilation (NSV) in comparison to natural thermal ventilation (NTV) in buildings’ design. The architectural design decisions influencing air and smoke flow patterns have been identified. The assessment was carried out through surveying architects in academia and in practice using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique to measure their priorities of the early integration of either NSV or NTV objectives. The results show that there is an obvious perception gap between both architects in academia and in practice. The results also identify some of the reasons that contribute to the perception gap.
{"title":"EARLY INTEGRATION OF FIRE SAFETY OBJECTIVES BETWEEN ARCHITECTS IN ACADEMIA AND IN PRACTICE","authors":"Rahma M. Doheim","doi":"10.2495/risk200211","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2495/risk200211","url":null,"abstract":"The timing of integrating the objectives of building’s systems in the architectural design is governed by the decisions architects make. The architectural decisions regarding fire safety measures are, in some cases, hindered by cost. Such constraint keeps fire safety options to a minimum of code compliance considered at a late stage of the architectural design. Integrating and incorporating fire safety objectives at an early stage in the architectural design represents a quandary challenge for architects. This research focuses on assessing the perception of architects in academia and practice regarding their priorities for the early integration of natural smoke ventilation (NSV) in comparison to natural thermal ventilation (NTV) in buildings’ design. The architectural design decisions influencing air and smoke flow patterns have been identified. The assessment was carried out through surveying architects in academia and in practice using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) technique to measure their priorities of the early integration of either NSV or NTV objectives. The results show that there is an obvious perception gap between both architects in academia and in practice. The results also identify some of the reasons that contribute to the perception gap.","PeriodicalId":23647,"journal":{"name":"WIT transactions on engineering sciences","volume":"34 1","pages":"241-252"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80331168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The cumulative flooding frequencies and the cumulative floods’ consequences on lives and properties/ public utilities, observed over the 16-year period (2001–2016) in the Chao Phraya River Basin (CPRB) of Thailand, were used to preliminarily assess flood risks for the river basin. The estimated index (0–1) of flood risks was categorized into four classes, including low ( 0.12), moderate (0.13–0.32), high (0.33–0.62), and very high (0.63–1.00), and was mapped across the river basin using the ArcGIS program. Of the 151 districts located in the CPRB, four, three, and 10 districts showed very high, high, and moderate risks of flooding, respectively, whereas, the remaining 134 districts showed a low flood risk. Land use activities and man-made disturbances could influence the severity of the flood risk in the river basin. The findings are useful for the decision making by local administrations to prepare proper measures for flood risk management on a river basin scale.
{"title":"FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT FOR THE CENTRAL RIVER BASIN OF THAILAND","authors":"N. Singkran","doi":"10.2495/risk200101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2495/risk200101","url":null,"abstract":"The cumulative flooding frequencies and the cumulative floods’ consequences on lives and properties/ public utilities, observed over the 16-year period (2001–2016) in the Chao Phraya River Basin (CPRB) of Thailand, were used to preliminarily assess flood risks for the river basin. The estimated index (0–1) of flood risks was categorized into four classes, including low ( 0.12), moderate (0.13–0.32), high (0.33–0.62), and very high (0.63–1.00), and was mapped across the river basin using the ArcGIS program. Of the 151 districts located in the CPRB, four, three, and 10 districts showed very high, high, and moderate risks of flooding, respectively, whereas, the remaining 134 districts showed a low flood risk. Land use activities and man-made disturbances could influence the severity of the flood risk in the river basin. The findings are useful for the decision making by local administrations to prepare proper measures for flood risk management on a river basin scale.","PeriodicalId":23647,"journal":{"name":"WIT transactions on engineering sciences","volume":"11 1","pages":"111-119"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74240860","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The Metro Vancouver region of southwestern British Columbia, Canada, is exposed to significant earthquake risk. Earthquake hazard has yet to be mapped to an effective scale in Metro Vancouver and so it is critical to generate comprehensive seismic hazard maps for the region. The Metro Vancouver Seismic Microzonation Project is tasked with the assessment and mapping of earthquake shaking hazard and liquefaction and landslide susceptibility hazards at a 1:25,000 scale. The detailed hazard information and data collected as part of this project, like most traditional hazard studies, is highly technical and unsuitable for the needs of intermediate users (e.g. regional planners and emergency managers). In this study we evaluate metrics and delivery format used to communicate seismic hazard information to intermediate users so it may be applied effectively in regional planning and emergency management strategies. Our methodology to evaluate effective communication of the seismic hazard products (GIS shapefiles and maps) involves a stakeholder workshop and online questionnaire survey. Existing microzonation maps for other regions in Canada are referenced throughout this consultation process and feedback is used as a benchmark to develop upon. A sequence of iterative discussion and consultation is necessary to determine the comprehensible metrics, desired interaction level and stylistic preferences to be used in final mapped products. Responses reiterate that the use of technical metrics is not effective in communicating hazard to intermediate users; separate map products are required for primary and intermediate users. Additionally, participants express importance of visual simplicity, open access to background data and interactive capabilities (e.g. GIS shapefiles). Feedback indicates that a lack of standardization leads to misinterpretation when comparing seismic microzonation maps of different regions; thus, results of this consultation process are integrated into a set of preliminary recommendations for producing seismic microzonation maps in a move towards standardization.
{"title":"EVALUATING THE USE AND COMMUNICATION OF SEISMIC HAZARD MAPS: A CASE STUDY OF METRO VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA","authors":"Meredith Fyfe, S. Molnar","doi":"10.2495/risk200141","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2495/risk200141","url":null,"abstract":"The Metro Vancouver region of southwestern British Columbia, Canada, is exposed to significant earthquake risk. Earthquake hazard has yet to be mapped to an effective scale in Metro Vancouver and so it is critical to generate comprehensive seismic hazard maps for the region. The Metro Vancouver Seismic Microzonation Project is tasked with the assessment and mapping of earthquake shaking hazard and liquefaction and landslide susceptibility hazards at a 1:25,000 scale. The detailed hazard information and data collected as part of this project, like most traditional hazard studies, is highly technical and unsuitable for the needs of intermediate users (e.g. regional planners and emergency managers). In this study we evaluate metrics and delivery format used to communicate seismic hazard information to intermediate users so it may be applied effectively in regional planning and emergency management strategies. Our methodology to evaluate effective communication of the seismic hazard products (GIS shapefiles and maps) involves a stakeholder workshop and online questionnaire survey. Existing microzonation maps for other regions in Canada are referenced throughout this consultation process and feedback is used as a benchmark to develop upon. A sequence of iterative discussion and consultation is necessary to determine the comprehensible metrics, desired interaction level and stylistic preferences to be used in final mapped products. Responses reiterate that the use of technical metrics is not effective in communicating hazard to intermediate users; separate map products are required for primary and intermediate users. Additionally, participants express importance of visual simplicity, open access to background data and interactive capabilities (e.g. GIS shapefiles). Feedback indicates that a lack of standardization leads to misinterpretation when comparing seismic microzonation maps of different regions; thus, results of this consultation process are integrated into a set of preliminary recommendations for producing seismic microzonation maps in a move towards standardization.","PeriodicalId":23647,"journal":{"name":"WIT transactions on engineering sciences","volume":"1 1","pages":"157-168"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84215280","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This contribution analyses the spatial support of sampling points used to express the presence or absence of NO3ˉ pollution in the water table. A spatial database constructed for the assessment of ground water vulnerability is re-analysed with a different predictive strategy. In practice, a case study area surrounding the city of Milan in northern Italy becomes an opportunity to point at a very general prediction modelling problem in which the basic direct evidence of a process is obtained only by sampling with point like measurements of nitrate concentration, as the ones from drill holes or water wells. The main questions are: “What is the functional spatial support for the modelling?” and “What happens if different spatial supports are assumed?” The answers to these questions are counterintuitive. Over the area of study of about 2,000 km2, the distribution of 305 water wells delimits a training area in which 133 wells are considered as impacted by nitrate pollution, i.e., direct supporting patterns of the modelling. The remaining 172 wells are considered as non-impacted. In the training area, nine natural and anthropogenic map data are assumed, as indirect supporting patterns of the modelling, to reflect both the potential source of nitrates and the relative ease in which nitrates may migrate in ground water. They cover the entire area of study. A mathematical model is used that computes spatial relationships between the direct and indirect supporting patterns based on empirical likelihood ratios. The relationships are integrated into prediction patterns and, by iterative cross-validations, into target and uncertainty patterns. These are then extended from the training area over the remaining much larger study areas for analysis and visualization. Square neighbourhoods of dimensions 20 × 20 m, 60 × 60 m, 180 × 180 m and 1,020 × 1,020 m around the 305 wells are used to delimit four training areas of different sizes. Surprisingly, the smaller spatial support appears as the most reliable.
{"title":"MODELLING AQUIFER VULNERABILITY TO NITRATES UNDER THE ASSUMPTION OF VARYING SPATIAL SUPPORT OF WATER WELL DISTRIBUTION","authors":"A. Fabbri, A. Patera","doi":"10.2495/risk200011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2495/risk200011","url":null,"abstract":"This contribution analyses the spatial support of sampling points used to express the presence or absence of NO3ˉ pollution in the water table. A spatial database constructed for the assessment of ground water vulnerability is re-analysed with a different predictive strategy. In practice, a case study area surrounding the city of Milan in northern Italy becomes an opportunity to point at a very general prediction modelling problem in which the basic direct evidence of a process is obtained only by sampling with point like measurements of nitrate concentration, as the ones from drill holes or water wells. The main questions are: “What is the functional spatial support for the modelling?” and “What happens if different spatial supports are assumed?” The answers to these questions are counterintuitive. Over the area of study of about 2,000 km2, the distribution of 305 water wells delimits a training area in which 133 wells are considered as impacted by nitrate pollution, i.e., direct supporting patterns of the modelling. The remaining 172 wells are considered as non-impacted. In the training area, nine natural and anthropogenic map data are assumed, as indirect supporting patterns of the modelling, to reflect both the potential source of nitrates and the relative ease in which nitrates may migrate in ground water. They cover the entire area of study. A mathematical model is used that computes spatial relationships between the direct and indirect supporting patterns based on empirical likelihood ratios. The relationships are integrated into prediction patterns and, by iterative cross-validations, into target and uncertainty patterns. These are then extended from the training area over the remaining much larger study areas for analysis and visualization. Square neighbourhoods of dimensions 20 × 20 m, 60 × 60 m, 180 × 180 m and 1,020 × 1,020 m around the 305 wells are used to delimit four training areas of different sizes. Surprisingly, the smaller spatial support appears as the most reliable.","PeriodicalId":23647,"journal":{"name":"WIT transactions on engineering sciences","volume":"50 1","pages":"3-16"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89444126","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The U.S. Federal Government offered for oil and gas leasing a portion of the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lands in Cook Inlet, Alaska (Lease Sale 244). Because oil spills may occur from activities associated with offshore oil and gas exploration, production, decommissioning, and transportation, the U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Ocean Energy Management conducts oil spill risk analysis (OSRA) to support National Environmental Policy Act analyses prior to conducting an oil and gas lease sale. The objective of OSRA is to estimate the probability of oil spill occurrence, the probability of oil spill contact, and the probability of oil spill occurrence and contact to sensitive offshore and onshore environmental resources and socioeconomic features from hypothetical oil spills accidentally occurring from OCS oil and gas-related activities. This paper presents the results of OSRA conducted for use in the Cook Inlet OCS Oil and Gas Lease Sale 244 Environmental Impact Statement. The OSRA model estimated oil spill trajectories using model-simulated hindcast fields of winds, sea ice movement and concentration, and surface ocean currents in the Cook Inlet, Shelikof Strait, and Gulf of Alaska. This paper also summarizes stochastic contact patterns and associated risks.
美国联邦政府提出租赁位于阿拉斯加库克湾的部分美国外大陆架(OCS)土地的石油和天然气(Lease Sale 244)。由于与海上油气勘探、生产、退役和运输相关的活动可能发生溢油，美国内政部海洋能源管理局在进行油气租赁销售之前进行溢油风险分析(OSRA)，以支持国家环境政策法案的分析。OSRA的目的是估计在OCS油气相关活动中假设意外发生溢油，溢油发生的概率、溢油接触的概率，以及溢油发生的概率和对海上和陆上敏感环境资源和社会经济特征的接触。本文介绍了在Cook Inlet OCS石油和天然气租赁销售244环境影响报告中进行的OSRA结果。OSRA模型利用模型模拟的风、海冰运动和集中、库克湾、Shelikof海峡和阿拉斯加湾的表面洋流的后向场来估计石油泄漏轨迹。本文还总结了随机接触模式和相关风险。
{"title":"ASSESSING OIL SPILL RISK IN LOWER COOK INLET, ALASKA","authors":"Z. Ji, Caryn Smith, W. Johnson","doi":"10.2495/risk200031","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2495/risk200031","url":null,"abstract":"The U.S. Federal Government offered for oil and gas leasing a portion of the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) lands in Cook Inlet, Alaska (Lease Sale 244). Because oil spills may occur from activities associated with offshore oil and gas exploration, production, decommissioning, and transportation, the U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Ocean Energy Management conducts oil spill risk analysis (OSRA) to support National Environmental Policy Act analyses prior to conducting an oil and gas lease sale. The objective of OSRA is to estimate the probability of oil spill occurrence, the probability of oil spill contact, and the probability of oil spill occurrence and contact to sensitive offshore and onshore environmental resources and socioeconomic features from hypothetical oil spills accidentally occurring from OCS oil and gas-related activities. This paper presents the results of OSRA conducted for use in the Cook Inlet OCS Oil and Gas Lease Sale 244 Environmental Impact Statement. The OSRA model estimated oil spill trajectories using model-simulated hindcast fields of winds, sea ice movement and concentration, and surface ocean currents in the Cook Inlet, Shelikof Strait, and Gulf of Alaska. This paper also summarizes stochastic contact patterns and associated risks.","PeriodicalId":23647,"journal":{"name":"WIT transactions on engineering sciences","volume":"51 1","pages":"31-40"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80343708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Religious buildings are sites exposed to specific risks represented, for example, by theft, vandalism, damage, and terrorism that could injure both people and cultural/religious heritage. Therefore, they need proper actions to prevent the above risks and to protect against them using intrusion detection, access control, video surveillance, communication systems, security personnel and procedures properly integrated to realize an integrated system or solution. In this paper a novel risk analysis methodology for religious buildings (RARB) is illustrated, showing as a case study, without any loss of its general validity, its application to a Catholic church. The proposed risk analysis technique allows identifying the exact number of physical security protections (intrusion detection system, access control, video surveillance, communication devices, security personnel, etc.) that the religious site needs and the related performances as a function of the possible targets which can be attacked. It also allows avoiding overestimating the risk as in the case of including redundant protective countermeasures that sometimes result to be useless, thereby reducing the related extra costs involved. Furthermore, it results in being useful and suitable for plenty of other cultural heritage sites.
{"title":"NEW RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY FOR RELIGIOUS BUILDINGS","authors":"F. Garzia, E. Sammarco","doi":"10.2495/risk200191","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2495/risk200191","url":null,"abstract":"Religious buildings are sites exposed to specific risks represented, for example, by theft, vandalism, damage, and terrorism that could injure both people and cultural/religious heritage. Therefore, they need proper actions to prevent the above risks and to protect against them using intrusion detection, access control, video surveillance, communication systems, security personnel and procedures properly integrated to realize an integrated system or solution. In this paper a novel risk analysis methodology for religious buildings (RARB) is illustrated, showing as a case study, without any loss of its general validity, its application to a Catholic church. The proposed risk analysis technique allows identifying the exact number of physical security protections (intrusion detection system, access control, video surveillance, communication devices, security personnel, etc.) that the religious site needs and the related performances as a function of the possible targets which can be attacked. It also allows avoiding overestimating the risk as in the case of including redundant protective countermeasures that sometimes result to be useless, thereby reducing the related extra costs involved. Furthermore, it results in being useful and suitable for plenty of other cultural heritage sites.","PeriodicalId":23647,"journal":{"name":"WIT transactions on engineering sciences","volume":"7 1","pages":"215-227"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91372614","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Andra-Cosmina Albulescu, Daniela Larion, A. Grozavu
In the context of an earthquake impact, school units are particularly vulnerable because of the specific age group of the population that studies there. This means that the earthquake mitigation strategies targeting schools should be carefully elaborated, starting from a proper assessment of their seismic vulnerability. Such assessments should be extensively conducted, especially in the case of urban settlements that are disadvantaged in terms of economic potential, social development and media image, like Vaslui City, Romania. This paper aims to evaluate the seismic vulnerability of school units in Vaslui City using a combination of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. Unlike other assessments of this type, the proposed framework integrates both aspects related to the physical vulnerability of the school buildings, and social elements concerning the educational personnel, the age profile of the pupils, school hours and other factors. The methodology also includes a systemic vulnerability component that offers better insights about the access emergency services would have to the educational institutions in case of a powerful earthquake. The physical, social and systemic vulnerability factors/criteria are weighed via Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), while the 25 school units in the study area are evaluated using Weighted Product Model (WPM). The results are combined with GIS techniques in order to obtain a map that shows the seismic vulnerability level of the school units. The most vulnerable school units are the ones with tall old buildings located along narrow streets, with significant number of very young or disabled pupils. These findings represent the stepping stones for the retrofitting works and the educational programmes related to seismic hazards that should be implemented by local authorities. Although restricted by the low number of educational institutions in the study area, the proposed framework may be further on used in seismic vulnerability research.
{"title":"MULTI-CRITERIA ASSESSMENT OF THE SEISMIC VULNERABILITY OF SCHOOL UNITS IN VASLUI CITY, ROMANIA","authors":"Andra-Cosmina Albulescu, Daniela Larion, A. Grozavu","doi":"10.2495/risk200021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2495/risk200021","url":null,"abstract":"In the context of an earthquake impact, school units are particularly vulnerable because of the specific age group of the population that studies there. This means that the earthquake mitigation strategies targeting schools should be carefully elaborated, starting from a proper assessment of their seismic vulnerability. Such assessments should be extensively conducted, especially in the case of urban settlements that are disadvantaged in terms of economic potential, social development and media image, like Vaslui City, Romania. This paper aims to evaluate the seismic vulnerability of school units in Vaslui City using a combination of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) methods and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. Unlike other assessments of this type, the proposed framework integrates both aspects related to the physical vulnerability of the school buildings, and social elements concerning the educational personnel, the age profile of the pupils, school hours and other factors. The methodology also includes a systemic vulnerability component that offers better insights about the access emergency services would have to the educational institutions in case of a powerful earthquake. The physical, social and systemic vulnerability factors/criteria are weighed via Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), while the 25 school units in the study area are evaluated using Weighted Product Model (WPM). The results are combined with GIS techniques in order to obtain a map that shows the seismic vulnerability level of the school units. The most vulnerable school units are the ones with tall old buildings located along narrow streets, with significant number of very young or disabled pupils. These findings represent the stepping stones for the retrofitting works and the educational programmes related to seismic hazards that should be implemented by local authorities. Although restricted by the low number of educational institutions in the study area, the proposed framework may be further on used in seismic vulnerability research.","PeriodicalId":23647,"journal":{"name":"WIT transactions on engineering sciences","volume":"30 1","pages":"17-28"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84845979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Different flow meter technologies are used to monitor the output of oil and gas wells. Although flowmeter accuracy has generally improved over time, there remain substantial uncertainties, particularly in multiphase flow. These errors could potentially be greater where older meters are being used for calibration, and/or maintenance is difficult. Consequently, the associated errors with the recorded data could be out of specification in such cases. One use of the well flow data is to improve parameter estimates for important characteristics of reservoirs such as porosity and permeability. Therefore, any errors in flow measurement influence the results of a reservoir simulation and production forecasts. However, the impact of flow measurement errors on the forecast of oil and gas production has not been considered before. In this study, the effects of using out-of-specification errors on the predicted reservoir production have been investigated. As a test case, the simulated production results of a reservoir with known characteristics were considered to be the actual flow rate values. Then, two sets of data were generated by applying errors up to 5% and 10%, respectively, to the flow rates and the resulting values were used in a history matching exercise to modify the predictions of the simulations for the same reservoir with incorrect porosity and permeability parameters. The errors in the first and second sets of data were considered to be within and without the specification, respectively. The results show that when errors are within the specification, the corrected porosity and permeability values have less than a 2.2% and 2.5% error, which cause minor deviations of up to 2.3% in the production forecast. However, for the second set of data, when the errors are increased up to 5% more than the specification, the corrected porosity, permeability and production forecast deviate significantly up to 10.8 %, 10.1% and 12.4% from their respective reference values.
{"title":"EFFECTS OF FLOW MEASUREMENT ERRORS ON OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION FORECASTS","authors":"Mahdi Sadri, S. Shariatipour, A. Hunt","doi":"10.2495/MPF170141","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2495/MPF170141","url":null,"abstract":"Different flow meter technologies are used to monitor the output of oil and gas wells. Although flowmeter accuracy has generally improved over time, there remain substantial uncertainties, particularly in multiphase flow. These errors could potentially be greater where older meters are being used for calibration, and/or maintenance is difficult. Consequently, the associated errors with the recorded data could be out of specification in such cases. One use of the well flow data is to improve parameter estimates for important characteristics of reservoirs such as porosity and permeability. Therefore, any errors in flow measurement influence the results of a reservoir simulation and production forecasts. However, the impact of flow measurement errors on the forecast of oil and gas production has not been considered before. In this study, the effects of using out-of-specification errors on the predicted reservoir production have been investigated. As a test case, the simulated production results of a reservoir with known characteristics were considered to be the actual flow rate values. Then, two sets of data were generated by applying errors up to 5% and 10%, respectively, to the flow rates and the resulting values were used in a history matching exercise to modify the predictions of the simulations for the same reservoir with incorrect porosity and permeability parameters. The errors in the first and second sets of data were considered to be within and without the specification, respectively. The results show that when errors are within the specification, the corrected porosity and permeability values have less than a 2.2% and 2.5% error, which cause minor deviations of up to 2.3% in the production forecast. However, for the second set of data, when the errors are increased up to 5% more than the specification, the corrected porosity, permeability and production forecast deviate significantly up to 10.8 %, 10.1% and 12.4% from their respective reference values.","PeriodicalId":23647,"journal":{"name":"WIT transactions on engineering sciences","volume":"1 1","pages":"133-142"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-10-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89448696","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
K. Satpathy, C. Dubois, A. Duchesne, J. Fagnard, H. Caps, P. Vanderbemden, B. Vanderheyden
To understand the cooling aspect through natural convection in a cryogenic fluid interacting with a constant heat source, numerical simulations are carried out in a parallelepiped enclosure. The 3D form of N-S equations is solved to obtain the detailed flow features through path line profiles, isotherm contours and velocity vectors. The effect of heater aspect ratio (x/L) on the rate of heat transfer is studied in terms of the average Nusselt number (Nuave). The results indicate that effective heat transfer enhancement occurs for a small heater length, resulting in an efficient cooling. Increasing the heater length will favor heat transfer through conduction over convection. The maximum temperature difference across the fluid and the velocity magnitude are found to decrease with heater length. 3D and 2D results are in agreement for short heater lengths, but vary for higher heater lengths, presumably due to the essential effect of the heater width. Further analysis on different types of coolant reveals a constant correlation between Nuave and the Rayleigh number (Ra), with Nuave ~ Ra0.374. Benchmark validation for natural convection in a square enclosure is found to be satisfactory against the reported results.
{"title":"Studies on convective cooling of cryogenic fluids towards superconducting applications","authors":"K. Satpathy, C. Dubois, A. Duchesne, J. Fagnard, H. Caps, P. Vanderbemden, B. Vanderheyden","doi":"10.2495/CMEM170101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2495/CMEM170101","url":null,"abstract":"To understand the cooling aspect through natural convection in a cryogenic fluid interacting with a constant heat source, numerical simulations are carried out in a parallelepiped enclosure. The 3D form of N-S equations is solved to obtain the detailed flow features through path line profiles, isotherm contours and velocity vectors. The effect of heater aspect ratio (x/L) on the rate of heat transfer is studied in terms of the average Nusselt number (Nuave). The results indicate that effective heat transfer enhancement occurs for a small heater length, resulting in an efficient cooling. Increasing the heater length will favor heat transfer through conduction over convection. The maximum temperature difference across the fluid and the velocity magnitude are found to decrease with heater length. 3D and 2D results are in agreement for short heater lengths, but vary for higher heater lengths, presumably due to the essential effect of the heater width. Further analysis on different types of coolant reveals a constant correlation between Nuave and the Rayleigh number (Ra), with Nuave ~ Ra0.374. Benchmark validation for natural convection in a square enclosure is found to be satisfactory against the reported results.","PeriodicalId":23647,"journal":{"name":"WIT transactions on engineering sciences","volume":"7 1","pages":"95-106"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-09-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83464550","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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