Pub Date : 2003-09-01DOI: 10.5089/9781451858778.001.A001
R. Powell
This paper models the resource implications of debt relief provided to low-income countries (LICs). Obtaining debt relief does not necessarily lead to individual aid-dependent countries receiving more overall resources from the donor community. Preliminary cross-section estimates suggest that debt relief provided to low-income countries in the period 1996-2000 neither crowded out other non-debt relief-related aid flows to the debtors concerned nor created significant extra net resources for those countries. While it is too early to fully assess the resource implications of the enhanced HIPC Initiative, this paper provides a possible approach to such an evaluation.
{"title":"Debt Relief, Additionality, and Aid Allocation in Low-Income Countries","authors":"R. Powell","doi":"10.5089/9781451858778.001.A001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451858778.001.A001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper models the resource implications of debt relief provided to low-income countries (LICs). Obtaining debt relief does not necessarily lead to individual aid-dependent countries receiving more overall resources from the donor community. Preliminary cross-section estimates suggest that debt relief provided to low-income countries in the period 1996-2000 neither crowded out other non-debt relief-related aid flows to the debtors concerned nor created significant extra net resources for those countries. While it is too early to fully assess the resource implications of the enhanced HIPC Initiative, this paper provides a possible approach to such an evaluation.","PeriodicalId":247622,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Fiscal & Monetary Policy in Developing Economies (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123692946","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Many emerging market economies are trying to improve their budget processes and move to performance-based budgeting. This paper first reviews the evolution of the "new" performance budgeting model, increasingly being applied in industrial countries. By identifying its main components, the tasks faced by emerging market economies when converting their present budget systems to this model are determined. It is recognized that this conversion will not be easy and wall require four major reform elements. First, any existing program structure must be set in the wider context of strategic budget planning and medium-term budget frameworks. Second, this typically involves redesigning and refining existing program structures. Third, existing budget-costing systems and associated skills will probably need to be improved. Fourth, and perhaps most difficult, a new system of accountability and budget incentives needs to be introduced. For emerging market economies, these should be viewed as the prerequisites for a successful introduction of the new performance-budgeting model.
{"title":"From Program to Performance Budgeting The Challenge for Emerging Market Economies","authors":"J. Diamond","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.880208","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.880208","url":null,"abstract":"Many emerging market economies are trying to improve their budget processes and move to performance-based budgeting. This paper first reviews the evolution of the \"new\" performance budgeting model, increasingly being applied in industrial countries. By identifying its main components, the tasks faced by emerging market economies when converting their present budget systems to this model are determined. It is recognized that this conversion will not be easy and wall require four major reform elements. First, any existing program structure must be set in the wider context of strategic budget planning and medium-term budget frameworks. Second, this typically involves redesigning and refining existing program structures. Third, existing budget-costing systems and associated skills will probably need to be improved. Fourth, and perhaps most difficult, a new system of accountability and budget incentives needs to be introduced. For emerging market economies, these should be viewed as the prerequisites for a successful introduction of the new performance-budgeting model.","PeriodicalId":247622,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Fiscal & Monetary Policy in Developing Economies (Topic)","volume":"88 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115817712","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper investigates whether monetary and nonmonetary indicators tell the same story about chronic poverty using a unique panel data from Vietnam in the 1990s. Defining chronic poverty as occurring when an individual is monetarily poor, stunted, malnourished or out of school in both waves of the panel, the overlap and correlation between subgroups of the chronically poor are shown to be modest. Some, but not all, nonmonetary indicators are more persistent and complement monetary indicators of chronic poverty. Taking account of the multiple dimensions of chronic poverty cannot be a simple additive exercise.
{"title":"Do Monetary and Non-Monetary Indicators Tell the Same Story About Chronic Poverty? A Study of Vietnam in the 1990s","authors":"B. Baulch, Edoardo Massett","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1754461","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1754461","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates whether monetary and nonmonetary indicators tell the same story about chronic poverty using a unique panel data from Vietnam in the 1990s. Defining chronic poverty as occurring when an individual is monetarily poor, stunted, malnourished or out of school in both waves of the panel, the overlap and correlation between subgroups of the chronically poor are shown to be modest. Some, but not all, nonmonetary indicators are more persistent and complement monetary indicators of chronic poverty. Taking account of the multiple dimensions of chronic poverty cannot be a simple additive exercise.","PeriodicalId":247622,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Fiscal & Monetary Policy in Developing Economies (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129452684","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The model has four assets: domestic and foreign money and bonds. It is a two country macro model, with debt defined in terms of the net asset holdings of the domestic country. Asset flows between the domestic and foreign country are driven by the interaction between the current and capital account. Both the assets and goods markets are non-linear: the non-linearities in international debt create the possibility of multiple debt and competitiveness equilibria. The paper shows that domestic and foreign monetary policy, as well as trade shocks, can not only lead to irreversibility of international debt, but also of international competitiveness. This allows us to shed some light on the causes leading to 'debt traps' faced by newly industrialised and less developed countries, the so called 'Dutch disease' in countries with new resource discoveries, and the persistent effects on trade and competitiveness with capital controls and project linked lending.
{"title":"A Non-Linear Currency Substitution Model of Hysteresis in Debt and Competitiveness","authors":"Şaziye Gaziog̃lu, W. McCausland","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.942309","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.942309","url":null,"abstract":"The model has four assets: domestic and foreign money and bonds. It is a two country macro model, with debt defined in terms of the net asset holdings of the domestic country. Asset flows between the domestic and foreign country are driven by the interaction between the current and capital account. Both the assets and goods markets are non-linear: the non-linearities in international debt create the possibility of multiple debt and competitiveness equilibria. The paper shows that domestic and foreign monetary policy, as well as trade shocks, can not only lead to irreversibility of international debt, but also of international competitiveness. This allows us to shed some light on the causes leading to 'debt traps' faced by newly industrialised and less developed countries, the so called 'Dutch disease' in countries with new resource discoveries, and the persistent effects on trade and competitiveness with capital controls and project linked lending.","PeriodicalId":247622,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Fiscal & Monetary Policy in Developing Economies (Topic)","volume":"5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115557617","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 1993-07-01DOI: 10.5089/9781451968170.001
Vivek B. Arora
This paper surveys the literature on sovereign debt that deals with the issues of a country`s ability-to-pay, its willingness-to-pay, and the policy responses to the debt crisis of the 1980s. The existence of an ability-to-pay problem suggests a need for debt reduction, but plans for debt relief face potential incentive problems, and sovereign debt repurchases are not always a welfare maximizing method of debt restructuring. The paper synthesizes the main conclusions on these issues. With a willingness-to-pay problem, the potential penalties for debt repudiation are important in the endogenous determination of the repayment outcome. Penalties that are intertemporal in nature have different implications for debt repudiation than do intratemporal penalties. In addition, the asymmetric distribution of the costs of default can lead to a recurrent cycle of debt accumulation and default.
{"title":"Sovereign Debt: A Survey of Some Theoretical and Policy Issues","authors":"Vivek B. Arora","doi":"10.5089/9781451968170.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451968170.001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper surveys the literature on sovereign debt that deals with the issues of a country`s ability-to-pay, its willingness-to-pay, and the policy responses to the debt crisis of the 1980s. The existence of an ability-to-pay problem suggests a need for debt reduction, but plans for debt relief face potential incentive problems, and sovereign debt repurchases are not always a welfare maximizing method of debt restructuring. The paper synthesizes the main conclusions on these issues. With a willingness-to-pay problem, the potential penalties for debt repudiation are important in the endogenous determination of the repayment outcome. Penalties that are intertemporal in nature have different implications for debt repudiation than do intratemporal penalties. In addition, the asymmetric distribution of the costs of default can lead to a recurrent cycle of debt accumulation and default.","PeriodicalId":247622,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Fiscal & Monetary Policy in Developing Economies (Topic)","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1993-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125239199","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Empirical results establishing a firm empirical relationship between dependency rates and savings behavior in developing countries are still lacking. Two demographic extensions of the representative household's stochastic dynamic optimization problem are presented. The relationship between expected dependency rates and consumption growth is shown to depend on two parameters: demographically varying committed consumption and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. Thus, the expected path of demographic variables can provide information on consumer willingness to smooth consumption, and on the savings responsiveness to changes in the real interest rate.
{"title":"Dependency Rates and Private Savings Behavior in Developing Countries","authors":"N. Rossi","doi":"10.2307/3867173","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2307/3867173","url":null,"abstract":"Empirical results establishing a firm empirical relationship between dependency rates and savings behavior in developing countries are still lacking. Two demographic extensions of the representative household's stochastic dynamic optimization problem are presented. The relationship between expected dependency rates and consumption growth is shown to depend on two parameters: demographically varying committed consumption and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. Thus, the expected path of demographic variables can provide information on consumer willingness to smooth consumption, and on the savings responsiveness to changes in the real interest rate.","PeriodicalId":247622,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Fiscal & Monetary Policy in Developing Economies (Topic)","volume":"17 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1988-01-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125278595","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Discussions on the separate effect of oil price and exchange rate fluctuations on economic activity and corporate performance in Nigeria are inconclusive. This study investigates the simultaneous influence of oil price and exchange rate and the impact of the different exchange rate regimes adopted in Nigeria on corporate performance, using the Structural-VAR / Historical Decomposition framework. The literature in these areas is sparse. Result from this study suggests that oil price shocks have negative influence on corporate performance with a very short-term positive influence. Exchange rate shocks have positive impact on corporate performance with an instantaneous negative effect. Also, fixed exchange regimes are associated with a downturn in corporate performance, while flexible regimes are associated with improved corporate performance. This result support diversification and flexible exchange rate policies, while corporate managers should adopt risk-hedging strategies to cushion the adverse combined effect of oil price and exchange rate shocks.
关于石油价格和汇率波动对尼日利亚经济活动和公司业绩分别产生的影响的讨论尚无定论。本研究使用结构- var /历史分解框架，调查石油价格和汇率的同时影响，以及尼日利亚采用的不同汇率制度对公司绩效的影响。这些领域的文献很少。本研究结果显示，油价冲击对企业绩效有负向影响，且有极短期的正向影响。汇率冲击对企业绩效有正向影响，但有瞬时的负向影响。此外，固定汇率制度与公司业绩下滑有关，而灵活汇率制度与公司业绩改善有关。这一结果支持多元化和灵活的汇率政策，而企业管理者应采取风险对冲策略，以缓冲油价和汇率冲击的不利综合影响。
{"title":"Corporate Performance in Nigeria: The Effect of Oil Price and Exchange Rate Fluctuations","authors":"Osaretin Kayode Omoregie, S. Olofin","doi":"10.32479/ijefi.8829","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.32479/ijefi.8829","url":null,"abstract":"Discussions on the separate effect of oil price and exchange rate fluctuations on economic activity and corporate performance in Nigeria are inconclusive. This study investigates the simultaneous influence of oil price and exchange rate and the impact of the different exchange rate regimes adopted in Nigeria on corporate performance, using the Structural-VAR / Historical Decomposition framework. The literature in these areas is sparse. Result from this study suggests that oil price shocks have negative influence on corporate performance with a very short-term positive influence. Exchange rate shocks have positive impact on corporate performance with an instantaneous negative effect. Also, fixed exchange regimes are associated with a downturn in corporate performance, while flexible regimes are associated with improved corporate performance. This result support diversification and flexible exchange rate policies, while corporate managers should adopt risk-hedging strategies to cushion the adverse combined effect of oil price and exchange rate shocks.","PeriodicalId":247622,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Fiscal & Monetary Policy in Developing Economies (Topic)","volume":"85 5 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116414354","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper looks at banking crises in the developing world. It discusses eight major types of cause, including both macroeconomic and supervisory factors. It discusses policy options, drawing on actual experience in developing and developed economies. Contains international statistical comparisons.
{"title":"Banking Crises in Emerging Economies: Origins and Policy Options","authors":"M. Goldstein, Philip Turner","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.52074","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.52074","url":null,"abstract":"This paper looks at banking crises in the developing world. It discusses eight major types of cause, including both macroeconomic and supervisory factors. It discusses policy options, drawing on actual experience in developing and developed economies. Contains international statistical comparisons.","PeriodicalId":247622,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Fiscal & Monetary Policy in Developing Economies (Topic)","volume":"119 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"1900-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122601168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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