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Monetary and Fiscal Policy in England During the French Wars (1793-1821) 法法战争时期英国的货币与财政政策(1793-1821)
Pub Date : 2017-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2983672
Pamfili M. Antipa, Christophe Chamley
The French Wars (1793-1815) exerted unprecedented pressures on Britain's fiscal and monetary policy settings. Policy makers had to constantly adjust the policy mix as events unfolded. This meant implementing monetary and fiscal policy innovations, such as the suspension of the gold standard and the instauration of Britain's first income tax. These adjustments signalled the government's commitment to undertake the necessary to win the war, without jeopardizing fiscal sustainability. Drawing on new hand-collected data, we also show that the Bank of England played an essential role in two successive phases of the war. The Bank granted ample liquidity to the domestic payment system, by discounting large amounts of private bills. It also financed the decisive phase of the wars by purchasing large amounts of public debt. The successful winding down of the balance sheet and the resumption of the gold standard influenced the Bank's policies and shaped the political and financial landscape for the century to come.
法国战争(1793-1815)对英国的财政和货币政策设置施加了前所未有的压力。随着事态的发展,政策制定者不得不不断调整政策组合。这意味着实施货币和财政政策创新,例如暂停金本位制和恢复英国的第一个所得税。这些调整表明,政府承诺在不危及财政可持续性的情况下,采取必要措施赢得这场战争。根据新的手工收集的数据,我们还表明,英格兰银行在战争的两个连续阶段发挥了重要作用。央行通过对大量私人票据贴现,为国内支付系统提供了充足的流动性。它还通过购买大量公共债务为战争的决定性阶段提供资金。资产负债表的成功收缩和金本位制的恢复影响了英国央行的政策,并塑造了下一个世纪的政治和金融格局。
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引用次数: 8
Macroprudential Policy, Incomplete Information and Inequality: The Case of Low-Income and Developing Countries 宏观审慎政策、不完全信息与不平等:以低收入和发展中国家为例
Pub Date : 2017-03-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781475588057.001
Filiz Unsal, Margarita Rubio
In this paper, we use a DSGE model to study the passive and time-varying implementation of macroprudential policy when policymakers have noisy and lagged data, as commonly observed in lowincome and developing countries (LIDCs). The model features an economy with two agents; households and entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurs are the borrowers in this economy and need capital as collateral to obtain loans. The macroprudential regulator uses the collateral requirement as the policy instrument. In this set-up, we compare policy performances of permanently increasing the collateral requirement (passive policy) versus a time-varying (active) policy which responds to credit developments. Results show that with perfect and timely information, an active approach is welfare superior, since it is more effective in providing financial stability with no long-run output cost. If the policymaker is not able to observe the economic conditions perfectly or observe with a lag, a cautious (less aggressive) policy or even a passive approach may be preferred. However, the latter comes at the expense of increasing inequality and a long-run output cost. The results therefore point to the need for a more careful consideration toward the passive policy, which is usually advocated for LIDCs.
在本文中,我们使用DSGE模型来研究当政策制定者拥有嘈杂和滞后的数据时,宏观审慎政策的被动和时变实施,正如低收入和发展中国家(lidc)普遍观察到的那样。该模型的特点是经济中有两个代理人;家庭和企业家。企业家是这种经济中的借款人,需要资本作为抵押来获得贷款。宏观审慎监管机构将抵押品要求作为政策工具。在此设置中,我们比较了永久增加抵押品要求(被动政策)与响应信贷发展的时变(主动)政策的政策表现。结果表明,在信息完善和及时的情况下,积极的方法在提供金融稳定方面更有效,而且没有长期产出成本。如果政策制定者无法完美地观察经济状况或观察滞后,则可能更倾向于采取谨慎(不那么激进)的政策,甚至是被动的做法。然而,后者是以不平等加剧和长期产出成本为代价的。因此,结果表明,需要更仔细地考虑被动政策,这通常是为低收入国家提倡的。
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引用次数: 6
Macro Shocks and Micro Woes: Short-Term Effects of India's Demonetization on the Poor 宏观冲击和微观困境:印度废钞令对穷人的短期影响
Pub Date : 2017-02-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3001396
Heng Zhu, Anubhab Gupta, Binoy Majumder, S. Steinbach
This study analyses and estimates the impact of demonetisation on the welfare of poor households in the Sundarbans region of India. Using a unique high frequency (weekly) data set collected during the process of demonetisation, we estimate that household welfare is reduced by INR 1,414 (US $ 20.8), equivalent to about 15.6% of income over the two months post demonetisation. Short-term welfare reductions happen through increased unemployment, losses to income and savings, and the opportunity costs of exchange. Our analysis shows that immediately after demonetisation, households adopted a range of strategies to rid themselves of unwanted currency notes, including increased consumption-related purchases, a reduction in borrowing and increased instances of loans. We find evidence that consumption levels and borrowing fall continuously, but consumption expenditures remain stubbornly high two months after the shock. Local income and remittances are affected heterogeneously by the shock, with households experiencing unemployment and female-headed households losing out more. The results shed light on how low income households use the limited tools at their disposal to deal with shocks, as well as the need to carefully consider how national monetary policy, however well intentioned, may adversely affect the welfare of vulnerable households. Our findings have important policy implications not only in the context of India but for governments in other developing countries thinking of adopting similar policies.
本研究分析和估计废钞对印度孙德尔本斯地区贫困家庭福利的影响。使用在废钞过程中收集的独特高频(每周)数据集,我们估计家庭福利减少了1,414印度卢比(20.8美元),相当于废钞后两个月收入的15.6%。短期福利的减少是通过失业率的增加、收入和储蓄的损失以及交换的机会成本来实现的。我们的分析表明,在废除纸币之后,家庭立即采取了一系列策略来摆脱不需要的纸币,包括增加与消费相关的购买,减少借贷和增加贷款。我们发现,有证据表明,消费水平和借贷持续下降,但在金融危机爆发两个月后,消费支出仍居高不下。当地收入和汇款受到冲击的影响各不相同,家庭面临失业,女性户主家庭损失更大。研究结果揭示了低收入家庭如何使用有限的工具来应对冲击,以及仔细考虑国家货币政策(无论初衷如何良好)可能对弱势家庭的福利产生何种不利影响的必要性。我们的研究结果不仅对印度具有重要的政策意义,而且对其他考虑采取类似政策的发展中国家的政府也具有重要的政策意义。
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引用次数: 3
An Empirical Analysis of Stable Demand for Money in India with Co-Integration Approach 印度货币稳定需求的协整实证分析
Pub Date : 2016-11-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2867551
Hemachandra Padhan
The recent macroeconomics and emerging market economics have contributed to the growing integration of financial innovation; financial markets integration, and financial dis intermediaries. This study investigates the long run and short run stability demand for money in India and relationship among M3 (Broad money), income level (Y), interest rate (call money) and exchange rate. The empirical results have analyzed from CUSUM test, CUSUMSQ test, co-integration, and VECM (vector error correction model) by taking the financial year data from 1970-71 to 2013-14. The results reveal that three co-integrating vectors at 5% significance level whereas the maximum eigenvalue test indicates the presence of two co-integrating vectors at 5% level of significance. VECM explains the speed of adjustment. Equation 1,
近年来的宏观经济学和新兴市场经济学促进了金融创新的日益融合;金融市场一体化和金融中介机构自由化。本研究考察了印度货币的长期和短期稳定性需求,以及M3(广义货币)、收入水平(Y)、利率(活期货币)和汇率之间的关系。实证结果采用CUSUM检验、CUSUMSQ检验、协整、VECM (vector error correction model)等方法,选取1970-71 - 2013-14财年数据进行分析。结果表明,三个协整向量在5%显著性水平上,而最大特征值检验表明在5%显著性水平上存在两个协整向量。VECM解释了调整的速度。方程1,
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引用次数: 4
The Carrot and the Stick: Evidence on Voluntary Tax Compliance from a Pilot Field Experiment in Rwanda 胡萝卜加大棒:来自卢旺达试点实地试验的自愿纳税证据
Pub Date : 2016-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3120358
G. Mascagni, C. Nell, N. Monkam, D. Mukama
Large-scale field experiments on tax compliance have been a thriving field of research in many regions of the world. However, Africa is still lagging behind, as administrative data from anonymised returns is available only in a handful of countries. To the best of our knowledge, there is as yet no published evidence of a tax field experiment from Africa. This paper reports the results of a pilot experiment in Rwanda that served as a stepping stone for a larger experimental study on tax compliance. In this pilot, we test the process of messaging taxpayers to encourage them to comply voluntarily, by providing information on sanctions. The results indicate that communication strategies that aim to inform taxpayers may be effective in increasing tax compliance. However, these results are only indicative. They will be complemented by further evidence from the larger field experiment, where we test different types of messages and delivery methods. Nonetheless, this paper provides some initial insight into the use of tax experiments in Africa, both in terms of initial evidence and lessons learned for future efforts in this field.
在世界许多地区,大规模的税务合规实地实验已经成为一个蓬勃发展的研究领域。然而,非洲仍然落后,因为只有少数几个国家可以获得匿名回报的行政数据。据我们所知,目前还没有公开的证据表明在非洲进行了税收实地实验。本文报告了卢旺达试点实验的结果,该实验为更大规模的税收合规实验研究奠定了基础。在这个试点项目中,我们测试了向纳税人传递信息的过程,通过提供有关制裁的信息,鼓励他们自愿遵守。结果表明,旨在告知纳税人的沟通策略可能有效地提高税收合规性。然而,这些结果只是指示性的。在更大的现场实验中,我们将测试不同类型的信息和传递方法,从而得到进一步证据的补充。尽管如此,本文还是提供了一些关于非洲税收实验使用的初步见解,包括初步证据和为该领域未来努力所吸取的经验教训。
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引用次数: 8
Tax Base Erosion and Profit Shifting in Africa – Part 1: Africa's Response to the OECD BEPS Action Plan 非洲的税基侵蚀和利润转移-第一部分:非洲对经合组织BEPS行动计划的回应
Pub Date : 2016-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3120328
AW Oguttu
This paper considers what Africa’s response should be to the OECD’s base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS) project. The paper acknowledges that BEPS concerns for developing countries (such as those in Africa) may not necessarily be the same as those for developed countries. The author first explains the concepts of tax avoidance and tax planning, to describe the background to BEPS. An explanation is given of the causes of BEPS, the challenges BEPS poses to corporate tax systems, the importance of corporate taxes in Africa, and the factors that exacerbate BEPS in Africa. The paper also differentiates BEPS from the notion of illicit financial flows – a matter that is causing a lot of confusion to the general public in understanding BEPS issues, and to finding solutions to the problem of capital flight from Africa. Thereafter the author addresses the relevance of the OECD BEPS Project to Africa, the international initiatives that could benefit Africa in curtailing BEPS, and what Africa’s response should be.
本文考虑非洲对经合组织的税基侵蚀和利润转移(BEPS)项目应作何反应。这篇论文承认,BEPS对发展中国家(例如非洲国家)的关注可能不一定与发达国家的关注相同。作者首先解释了避税和税收筹划的概念,描述了BEPS的背景。解释了BEPS的原因,BEPS对公司税制度构成的挑战,非洲公司税的重要性,以及加剧非洲BEPS的因素。该文件还将BEPS与非法资金流动的概念进行了区分,非法资金流动给公众理解BEPS问题以及寻找解决非洲资本外逃问题的方法带来了很多困惑。随后,作者阐述了经合组织BEPS项目与非洲的相关性,在削减BEPS方面可能使非洲受益的国际倡议,以及非洲应该如何应对。
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引用次数: 12
Macro Trends of Sustainable Income for Sustainable Development; Case Study of Tehran Municipality 可持续收入促进可持续发展的宏观趋势德黑兰市个案研究
Pub Date : 2016-05-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3602399
Kamran Yeganegi
Generally, the income sources of the municipalities of Iran during different periods have varied. By1983, the government had virtually contributed to the financing of the municipalities of the country. But in the same year's budget law, municipalities were expected to become self three years. Accordingly, the Interior Ministry was supposed to provide a new financial system for municipalities. As a result of this law, an important part of the state financial assistance to the municipalities was cut off while a new income system didn’t replace the government's grants. Simultaneously with the application of self-sufficiency policies, municipalities resorted to various forms of urban spending. The most important and most commonly used methods are the introduction of new impositions or the development of impositions. Revenues such as the impositions of buildings, selling building density, penalties such as fines for land use change.
一般来说,伊朗各市在不同时期的收入来源各不相同。到1983年,政府实际上已经为该国的市政当局提供了资金。但在同年的预算法中,市政当局预计将在三年内实现自治。因此,内务部应该为市政当局提供一个新的财政体系。由于这项法律,国家对市政当局的财政援助的一个重要部分被切断,而新的收入体系并没有取代政府的补助金。在实行自给自足政策的同时,市政当局采取各种形式的城市开支。最重要和最常用的方法是引入新的强制措施或发展强制措施。收入,如征收建筑税,出售建筑密度,处罚,如土地使用变化的罚款。
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引用次数: 0
A Fiscal History of Ethiopia: Taxation and Aid Dependence 1960-2010 埃塞俄比亚财政史:1960-2010年的税收和援助依赖
Pub Date : 2016-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3120299
G. Mascagni
This paper reviews the fiscal history of Ethiopia, focusing particularly on the period between 1960 and 2010, for which detailed fiscal data is available to underpin the analysis. While reviewing the key fiscal and economic events of this period, particular attention is paid to the relation between Ethiopia and its donors, which in fiscal terms can be seen as a relation between mobilising own tax revenue while negotiating aid and the conditions attached to it. While looking at the main drivers and constraints to tax revenue mobilisation in this period, the paper explores the role that aid and donors have played, and how this historical background influences Ethiopia today.
本文回顾了埃塞俄比亚的财政历史,特别关注1960年至2010年期间,详细的财政数据可用于支持分析。在审查这一时期的主要财政和经济事件时,特别注意到埃塞俄比亚与其捐助者之间的关系,从财政角度来看,这种关系可以看作是在谈判援助时调动自己的税收收入与所附条件之间的关系。在研究这一时期税收动员的主要驱动因素和制约因素的同时,本文探讨了援助和捐助者所发挥的作用,以及这一历史背景如何影响今天的埃塞俄比亚。
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引用次数: 9
Long-Term Gain, Short-Term Pain: Assessing the Potential Impact of Structural Reforms in Chile 长期收益,短期痛苦:评估智利结构改革的潜在影响
Pub Date : 2015-12-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781513537634.001
M. Santoro
In this paper, I study the potential economic impact of the 2015-18 structural reform agenda in Chile, using the IMF dynamic general equilibrium model (GIMF). I find that the agenda has the potential to significantly increase Chile's long-run GDP, although it may have some negative effects in the short term. Ensuring a smooth transition to a higher productive potential depends on three key dimensions: the credibility of the reforms, their effectiveness in closing structural gaps, and their speed of implementation. Badly designed reforms that remove only a very small fraction of the existing structural gaps, at a slow speed, and with little credibility, can greatly reduce the positive impact of the reform agenda on GDP.
本文采用国际货币基金组织动态一般均衡模型(GIMF)研究了智利2015-18年结构性改革议程的潜在经济影响。我发现,该议程有可能显著提高智利的长期GDP,尽管它可能在短期内产生一些负面影响。确保平稳过渡到更高的生产潜力取决于三个关键方面:改革的可信度、改革在缩小结构性差距方面的有效性以及改革的实施速度。设计糟糕的改革,只能消除现有结构性差距的很小一部分,而且速度缓慢,缺乏可信度,可能会大大降低改革议程对GDP的积极影响。
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引用次数: 0
Drilling Down on Royalties: How Canadian Provinces Can Improve Non-Renewable Resource Taxes 深入挖掘版税:加拿大各省如何改善不可再生资源税
Pub Date : 2015-09-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2665754
Robin Boadway, Benjamin Dachis
From coast to coast, non-renewable-resource taxation is a key source of provincial government revenue – and political rancour. Alberta has recently started a comprehensive review of its oil and natural gas extraction tax system. Newfoundland and Labrador is looking at a redesign of its royalty system. And British Columbia has set up a new tax on liquefied natural gas production. These provinces can all improve their current resource tax systems to raise more money without jeopardizing investment. The key problem with current resource taxes in Canada is not the tax rates, but the design of the taxes. Canadian policymakers should be looking at international best practices in resource tax design. Australia and Norway have best-in-class resource taxes that are based on the cash flows of resource production. That better design means that resource companies in those countries pay a high tax rate on cash flows but still have a strong incentive to invest. Western Canadian provinces instead rely on economically distorting gross-revenue royalties for most onshore oil and gas taxation. These provinces should change their gross-revenue royalties to more efficient cash-flow taxes. Cash-flow taxes are a better way of reflecting the cumulative costs that resource companies face to extract energy than are gross revenue royalties. Although Alberta’s oil sands cash-flow tax and Newfoundland and Labrador’s offshore royalty follow many international best practices, both have room for improvement. Those provinces should rethink the rules around how companies pre-pay gross revenue royalties, the limits on the kinds of expenses companies can deduct, and having a royalty rate that fluctuates with oil prices. British Columbia’s mining tax hits many of the right notes. However, the province’s tax on liquefied natural gas exports would be unnecessary if it changed its gross-revenue royalties on natural gas extraction to cash-flow taxes. Likewise, the federal government should consider reforms to its own corporate income tax system to tax cash flows, not profits. Canadian provinces have collected about $79 billion in resource-specific tax revenues from 2009 to 2013. But the provinces can collect more while not harming investment in mining and oil and natural gas extraction if they change their distortive gross-revenue royalties into better designed cash-flow taxes.
从东海岸到西海岸,不可再生资源税是省级政府收入的主要来源,也是政治怨恨的主要来源。艾伯塔省最近开始对其石油和天然气开采税收制度进行全面审查。纽芬兰和拉布拉多正在考虑重新设计其版税制度。不列颠哥伦比亚省已经对液化天然气生产征收新税。这些省份都可以改善现有的资源税制度,在不损害投资的情况下筹集更多资金。目前加拿大资源税的关键问题不在于税率,而在于税收的设计。加拿大的政策制定者应该在资源税设计方面借鉴国际上的最佳做法。澳大利亚和挪威的资源税是一流的,以资源生产的现金流为基础。这种更好的设计意味着,这些国家的资源公司为现金流缴纳高税率,但仍有强烈的投资动机。相反,加拿大西部省份依靠扭曲经济的总收益特许权使用费来征收大部分陆上石油和天然气税。这些省份应将其总收入特许权使用费改为更有效的现金流税。现金流税比总收入特许权使用费更能反映资源公司开采能源所面临的累积成本。尽管阿尔伯塔省的油砂现金流税以及纽芬兰和拉布拉多省的海上特许权使用费遵循了许多国际最佳做法,但两者都有改进的空间。这些省份应该重新考虑有关公司如何预先支付总收入特许权使用费、公司可以扣除的费用种类限制以及特许权使用费随油价波动的规定。不列颠哥伦比亚省的矿业税在很多方面都是正确的。然而,如果该省将天然气开采的总收入特许权使用费改为现金流税,那么该省对液化天然气出口征收的税就没有必要了。同样,联邦政府应该考虑改革自己的企业所得税制度,对现金流征税,而不是利润。从2009年到2013年,加拿大各省征收了约790亿美元的资源相关税收。但如果各省将扭曲的总收入特许权使用费改为设计更合理的现金流税,就可以在不损害矿业、石油和天然气开采投资的情况下征收更多的税。
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引用次数: 12
期刊
ERN: Fiscal & Monetary Policy in Developing Economies (Topic)
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