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XVA Estimates with Empirical Martingale Simulation 基于经验鞅模拟的XVA估计
Pub Date : 2021-10-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3948228
Stefano Renzitti, P. Bastani, Steven Sivorot
We explore simple finite sample adjustments to simulated spot FX rates, zero bonds, forward IBORs and the numeraire to ensure the martingale asset pricing property of linear IR and FX products holds exactly with a finite number of Monte Carlo simulations
我们探索了简单的有限样本调整,以模拟即期外汇汇率,零债券,远期ibor和数字,以确保线性IR和外汇产品的鞅资产定价属性与有限数量的蒙特卡罗模拟完全保持
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引用次数: 0
Marginals Versus Copulas: Which Account For More Model Risk In Multivariate Risk Forecasting? 边际与copula:在多变量风险预测中哪个模型风险更大?
Pub Date : 2021-09-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3927369
Simon Fritzsch, Maike Timphus, Gregor N. F. Weiß
Copulas. We study the model risk of multivariate risk models in a comprehensive empirical study on Copula-GARCH models used for forecasting Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. To determine whether model risk inherent in the forecasting of portfolio risk is caused by the candidate marginal or copula models, we analyze different groups of models in which we fix either the marginals, the copula, or neither. Model risk is economically significant, is especially high during periods of crisis, and is almost completely due to the choice of the copula. We then propose the use of the model confidence set procedure to narrow down the set of available models and reduce model risk for Copula-GARCH risk models. Our proposed approach leads to a significant improvement in the mean absolute deviation of one day ahead forecasts by our various candidate risk models.
连系动词。本文对Copula-GARCH模型用于风险价值和预期缺口的预测进行了综合实证研究,研究了多元风险模型的模型风险。为了确定投资组合风险预测中固有的模型风险是由候选边际模型还是联结模型引起的,我们分析了不同的模型组,其中我们要么固定边际,要么固定联结模型,或者两者都不固定。模型风险在经济上是重要的,在危机期间尤其高,并且几乎完全是由于选择了联结体。然后,我们建议使用模型置信集程序来缩小可用模型集,并降低Copula-GARCH风险模型的模型风险。我们提出的方法显著改善了我们的各种候选风险模型在一天前预测的平均绝对偏差。
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引用次数: 1
Sensitivities-Based Method and Expected Shortfall for Market Risk Under FRTB and Its Impact on Options Risk Capital 基于敏感性的市场风险预测方法及对期权风险资本的影响
Pub Date : 2021-09-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3926342
Carlos Alexander Grajales, Santiago Medina Hurtado
PurposeThis paper measures different market risk impacts on options portfolios under the new Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB) regulation, issued in Basel and coming into effect in 2023.Design/methodology/approachThis paper first suggests an algorithm for implementing the FRTB standardised approach via the sensitivities-based method to estimate a portfolio's risk capital and presents an illustration applied to an option position. Second, it proposes a methodology to estimate the expected shortfall in options portfolios from the FRTB internal models approach. In this regard, an application is developed to measure expected shortfall (ES) and value at risk (VaR) impacts under FRTB versus conventional VaR in a currency option position by considering stress scenarios from the 2007–9 and 2020–1 crises and back-testing procedures.FindingsThe suggested algorithm satisfactorily captures impacts via the sensitivities-based method, and higher risk capital demands are expected for emerging economies. Also, the planned FRTB methodology to measure ES and VaR is appropriate; in particular, historical metrics perform well. Astonishingly, their revealed impacts are more significant under the 2020–1 pandemic crisis than the 2007–9 financial crisis.Originality/valueThe proposals developed weave a communication bridge between the standardised and internal approaches of FRTB regulation, which can be scaled up technologically and institutionally.
本文在巴塞尔发布并将于2023年生效的新的交易簿基本审查(FRTB)法规下衡量不同的市场风险对期权投资组合的影响。本文首先提出了一种算法,通过基于敏感性的方法来实现FRTB标准化方法,以估计投资组合的风险资本,并给出了一个应用于期权头寸的例子。其次,提出了一种基于FRTB内部模型的期权投资组合预期缺口估计方法。在这方面,我们开发了一个应用程序,通过考虑2007-9年和2020-1年危机的压力情景和回测程序,来衡量FRTB下的预期缺口(ES)和风险价值(VaR)对货币期权头寸的影响。该算法通过基于敏感性的方法令人满意地捕获了影响,新兴经济体预计会有更高的风险资本需求。此外,计划的FRTB方法测量ES和VaR是合适的;特别是,历史指标表现良好。令人惊讶的是,在2020-1年的大流行危机中,它们所揭示的影响比2007-9年的金融危机更为严重。这些建议在FRTB监管的标准化和内部方法之间架起了一座沟通桥梁,可以在技术和制度上扩大规模。
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引用次数: 2
A 2-Factor model for inclusion of Voluntary Termination Risk in Automotive Retail Loan Portfolios 汽车零售贷款组合中自愿终止风险的2因素模型
Pub Date : 2021-09-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3919109
Simone Caenazzo, Ksenia Ponomareva
Under the UK Consumer Act 1974, obligors of Hire Purchase and Conditional Sale contracts are allowed to perform a Voluntary Termination (VT) once certain conditions are met. Upon such an event, lenders recover the underlying assets but are potentially liable to losses upon liquidation of the assets. This poses a challenge from a risk modelling perspective, as these financial products exhibit Credit (default) risk as well as VT risk, and these two events are mutually exclusive. In this paper we propose a modelling framework to account for Credit/Default and VT risk for Retail portfolios, designed as a 2-factor Monte Carlo simulation of loan-level termination events. The paper concludes with numerical and backtesting results from a real-life implementation of such framework in the context of an automotive loan portfolio.
根据1974年英国消费者法案,一旦满足某些条件,分期购买和有条件销售合同的债务人可以执行自愿终止(VT)。在这种情况下,贷款人可以收回相关资产,但在资产清算时可能会蒙受损失。这从风险建模的角度提出了挑战,因为这些金融产品表现出信用(违约)风险和虚拟货币风险,这两个事件是相互排斥的。在本文中,我们提出了一个建模框架来考虑零售投资组合的信用/违约和VT风险,设计为贷款级终止事件的2因素蒙特卡罗模拟。本文的结论是,在汽车贷款组合的背景下,这种框架的实际实施的数值和回测结果。
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引用次数: 0
Lessons from Estimating the Average Option-implied Volatility Term Structure for the Spanish Banking Sector 估算西班牙银行业平均期权隐含波动率期限结构的经验教训
Pub Date : 2021-09-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3916164
María T. González-Pérez
This paper estimates the volatility index term structure for the Spanish bank industry (SBVX) using the implied volatility of individual banks and assuming market correlation risk premium. This methodology enables calculating a volatility index for arbitrary (non-traded) portfolios. Using data from 2015 to 2021, we find that SBVX informs about the dynamics of bank returns beyond the standard market volatility index VIBEX, especially when bank returns are negative; and that one-year SBVX beats shorter maturities in explaining bank returns. On the other hand, positive bank returns relate to the dynamics of VIBEX just as much as SBVX, which aligns with the belief that a drop in global volatility (uncertainty) positively affects firm performance and, therefore, bank value projections. We find one-month SBVX better than VIBEX to forecast monthly bank returns volatility, regardless of the tenor we use to compute VIBEX. This paper provides empirical evidence that idiosyncratic implied volatility is just as significant, or even more than global volatility, to monitor current and future banks’ share price performance. We advise using SBVX term structure, short-term VIBEX, and market correlation risk premium to monitor uncertainty and returns in the banking sector and foresee periods of stress in this industry. Our results may be of great interest to those seeking to estimate the banking sector’s sensitivity to uncertainty, volatility, and risk.
本文利用单个银行的隐含波动率,假设市场相关风险溢价,对西班牙银行业(SBVX)的波动率指数期限结构进行了估计。这种方法可以计算任意(非交易)投资组合的波动指数。使用2015年至2021年的数据,我们发现SBVX可以告诉我们银行收益超出标准市场波动指数VIBEX的动态,特别是当银行收益为负时;一年期SBVX债券在解释银行收益方面优于短期债券。另一方面,积极的银行回报与VIBEX的动态相关,就像SBVX一样,这与全球波动性(不确定性)的下降对公司业绩产生积极影响的信念是一致的,因此,银行价值预测。我们发现一个月的SBVX比VIBEX更能预测月度银行回报波动,而不管我们用来计算VIBEX的期限是什么。本文提供的经验证据表明,在监测当前和未来银行股价表现方面,特殊隐含波动率与全球波动率一样重要,甚至更重要。我们建议使用SBVX期限结构、短期VIBEX和市场相关性风险溢价来监测银行业的不确定性和回报,并预测该行业的压力期。我们的结果可能对那些试图估计银行业对不确定性、波动性和风险的敏感性的人非常感兴趣。
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引用次数: 30
Risk Measures Induced by Efficient Insurance Contracts 有效保险合同引发的风险措施
Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3915592
Qiuqi Wang, Ruodu Wang, R. Zitikis
The Expected Shortfall (ES) is one of the most important regulatory risk measures in finance, insurance, and statistics, which has recently been characterized via sets of axioms from perspectives of portfolio risk management and statistics. Meanwhile, there is large literature on insurance design with ES as an objective or a constraint. A visible gap is to justify the special role of ES in insurance and actuarial science. To fill this gap, we study characterization of risk measures induced by efficient insurance contracts, i.e., those that are Pareto optimal for the insured and the insurer. One of our major results is that we characterize a mixture of the mean and ES as the risk measure of the insured and the insurer, when contracts with deductibles are efficient. Characterization results of other risk measures, including the mean and distortion risk measures, are also presented by linking them to different sets of contracts.
预期不足(ES)是金融、保险和统计学中最重要的监管风险度量之一,最近从投资组合风险管理和统计学的角度通过一组公理对其进行了表征。与此同时,有大量关于将ES作为目标或约束的保险设计的文献。一个明显的差距是证明ES在保险和精算科学中的特殊作用。为了填补这一空白,我们研究了由有效保险合同引起的风险度量的特征,即那些对被保险人和保险人都是帕累托最优的风险度量。我们的主要结果之一是,当带有免赔额的合同是有效的时,我们将平均值和ES的混合物描述为被保险人和保险人的风险度量。其他风险度量的表征结果,包括均值和扭曲风险度量,也通过将它们与不同的合同集联系起来而呈现出来。
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引用次数: 4
One-Year and Ultimate Reserve Risk in Mack Chain Ladder Model Mack链梯模型中的一年期和最终储备风险
Pub Date : 2021-08-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3799665
M. Szatkowski, Łukasz Delong
We investigate the relation between one-year reserve risk and ultimate reserve risk in Mack Chain Ladder model in a simulation study. The first goal is to validate the so-called linear emergence pattern formula, which maps the ultimate loss to the one-year loss, in case when we measure the risks with Value-at-Risk. The second goal is to estimate the true emergence pattern of the ultimate loss, i.e., the conditional distribution of the one-year loss given the ultimate loss, from which we can properly derive a risk measure for the one-year horizon from the simulations of ultimate losses. Finally, our third goal is to test if classical actuarial distributions can be used for modelling of the outstanding loss from the ultimate and the one-year perspective. In our simulation study, we investigate several synthetic loss triangles with various duration of the claims development process, volatility, skewness, and distributional assumptions of the individual development factors. We quantify the reserve risks without and with the estimation error of the claims development factors.
本文对Mack链梯模型中一年期准备金风险与最终准备金风险之间的关系进行了仿真研究。第一个目标是验证所谓的线性涌现模式公式,它将最终损失映射为一年的损失,以防我们用风险价值来衡量风险。第二个目标是估计最终损失的真实出现模式,即给定最终损失的一年损失的条件分布,从中我们可以从最终损失的模拟中适当地推导出一年范围的风险度量。最后,我们的第三个目标是测试经典精算分布是否可以用于从最终和一年的角度对未偿损失进行建模。在我们的模拟研究中,我们研究了几种具有不同索赔开发过程持续时间、波动性、偏度和单个开发因素的分布假设的合成损失三角形。我们量化了没有和有索赔发展因素估计误差的储备风险。
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引用次数: 2
Dynamic Currency Hedging with Ambiguity 具有模糊性的动态货币对冲
Pub Date : 2021-08-10 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3906716
Pawel Polak, Urban Ulrych
This paper establishes a general relation between investor's ambiguity and non-Gaussianity of financial asset returns. Based on that relation and utilizing a flexible non-Gaussian returns model for the joint distribution of portfolio and currency returns, we develop an ambiguity-adjusted dynamic currency hedging strategy for international investors. We propose an extended filtered historical simulation that combines Monte Carlo simulation based on volatility clustering patterns with the semi-parametric non-normal return distribution from historical data. This simulation allows us to incorporate investor's ambiguity into the dynamic currency hedging strategy algorithm that can numerically optimize an arbitrary risk measure, such as volatility, value-at-risk, or expected shortfall. The out-of-sample back-test results show that, for globally diversified investors, the derived dynamic currency hedging strategy with ambiguity is stable, robust, and highly risk reductive. It outperforms the benchmarks of constant hedging as well as dynamic approaches without ambiguity in terms of lower maximum drawdown and higher Sharpe and Sortino ratios in gross terms and net of transaction costs.
本文建立了投资者模糊性与金融资产收益非高斯性之间的一般关系。基于这一关系,利用组合收益与货币收益联合分布的灵活非高斯收益模型,我们为国际投资者开发了一种模糊性调整的动态货币对冲策略。我们提出了一种扩展过滤的历史模拟,将基于波动聚类模式的蒙特卡罗模拟与历史数据的半参数非正态回归分布相结合。该模拟允许我们将投资者的模糊性纳入动态货币对冲策略算法,该算法可以在数字上优化任意风险度量,如波动性、风险价值或预期不足。样本外回验结果表明,对于全球多元化投资者而言,导出的具有模糊性的动态货币对冲策略是稳定的、鲁棒的,并且具有高度的风险降低性。它在较低的最大回调和较高的夏普和索蒂诺比率(毛额和交易成本净额)方面优于恒定对冲的基准以及动态方法。
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引用次数: 1
Betting Against Quant: Examining the Factor Exposures of Thematic Indices 做空量化:检视主题性指数的因素暴露
Pub Date : 2021-08-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3899750
David Blitz
We examine the performance characteristics of recently introduced thematic indices using standard asset pricing theory. We find that thematic indices generally have strong negative exposures towards the profitability and value factors, indicating that they hold growth stocks that invest now for future profitability. As such, investors in thematic indices are effectively trading against quant investors, who prefer stocks that are currently cheap and profitable. From an asset pricing perspective, the negative factor exposures of thematic indices imply low expected returns. As there is clearly a clientele for thematic indices, we discuss how investing in these strategies may be rationalized despite their unfavorable factor exposures.
我们使用标准资产定价理论研究了最近引入的主题指数的表现特征。我们发现,主题指数通常对盈利能力和价值因素有很强的负敞口,这表明它们持有现在投资于未来盈利能力的成长型股票。因此,主题指数的投资者实际上是在与量化投资者进行交易,后者更喜欢目前便宜且有利可图的股票。从资产定价的角度来看,主题指数的负因子敞口意味着较低的预期回报。由于主题指数显然有客户,我们讨论了如何投资于这些策略可能是合理的,尽管他们的不利因素暴露。
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引用次数: 0
COVID-19 and Auto Loan Origination Trends COVID-19与汽车贷款发放趋势
Pub Date : 2021-08-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3897908
José J. Canals-Cerdá, Brian Jonghwan Lee
We study the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on auto loan origination activity during 2020. We focus on the dynamic impact of the crisis across lending channels, Equifax Risk Score (Risk Score) segments, and relevant geographic characteristics such as urbanization rate. We measure a significant drop in auto loan originations in March‒April followed by a near rebound in May‒June. Originations remain slightly depressed until October and fall again in November‒December. We document the largest drop and the smallest rebound in the subprime segment. We do not find any suggestive evidence that used car loan originations exhibited patterns significantly different from the rest of the market. We also document a more pronounced impact in the Northeast and the Pacific, seemingly influenced by the higher urbanization rate in these regions. Bank-financed originations experienced the largest drop and the smallest rebound, thus resulting in a loss of market share and continuing a 10-year trend of bank share loss in auto lending. We find that the drop in auto loans originated by banks was particularly significant among subprime borrowers. The impact of the COVID-19 crisis across origination channels contrasts with the experience during the Great Recession when banks contributed the largest support to the auto loan origination segment during periods of stress and finance company-originated auto loans were depressed.
我们研究了新冠肺炎危机对2020年汽车贷款发放活动的影响。我们重点关注危机对贷款渠道、Equifax风险评分(Risk Score)细分市场以及城市化率等相关地理特征的动态影响。根据我们的测算,3 - 4月汽车贷款发放量大幅下降,随后5 - 6月接近反弹。在10月之前,申请数量仍略有下降,并在11 - 12月再次下降。我们记录了次贷市场最大的跌幅和最小的反弹。我们没有发现任何暗示性的证据表明,二手车贷款的发放模式与其他市场有显著不同。我们还记录了东北和太平洋地区更为明显的影响,似乎受到这些地区较高城市化率的影响。银行融资发起的降幅最大,反弹最小,从而导致市场份额的损失,延续了银行在汽车贷款领域10年来份额损失的趋势。我们发现,银行发放的汽车贷款在次级借款人中下降尤为显著。新冠肺炎危机对贷款渠道的影响与大萧条时期的情况形成鲜明对比,当时银行在压力时期对汽车贷款发放部门提供了最大的支持,金融公司发放的汽车贷款受到抑制。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Risk Management & Analysis in Financial Institutions eJournal
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