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Economía de la complejidad: contribuciones para la paz con un enfoque sostenible (Economics of Complexity: Contributions for Peace from a Sustainable Approach) 复杂性经济学:以可持续方式对和平作出贡献(复杂性经济学:以可持续方式对和平作出贡献)
Pub Date : 2021-09-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3919754
Ángela Isabel Giraldo Suárez
Spanish Abstract: Las interrelaciones entre los sistemas económico, ambiental y social pueden tener incidencia sobre la paz. Los agentes económicos afectan el entorno y este a su vez los modifica. Así, esta problemática requiere de enfoques que permitan comprender estos vínculos. Este artículo tiene como objetivo identificar elementos teóricos que contribuyan a la consolidación de la paz con una perspectiva de sostenibilidad desde el rol económico. Para ello, se hace una revisión bibliográfica utilizando metabuscadores, seguimiento de tendencias en la discusión científica y revisión de autores seminales, a partir de lo cual se obtienen elementos teóricos a ser analizados a través del enfoque de casos contrarios. Se identifica que la cooperación, selección intergrupal y aislamiento de nichos en el marco de la teoría de la complejidad, teoría evolutiva y transición a la sostenibilidad pueden favorecer la emergencia de la paz en un contexto sostenible. English Abstract: The interrelationships between the economic, environmental and social systems should have an impact on peace. Economic agents affect the environment and this in turn modifies them. Therefore, this problem requires theoretical approaches that allow us to understand those links. This article aims to identify, theoretical elements that contribute to consolidation of peace in a sustainable perspective from the economic role. For this, a literature review was carried out through meta-search engines, trend monitoring on scientific discussion and review of seminal authors. Theoretical elements gathering were analyzed through the opposing case approach. It was identified that cooperation, intergroup selection and isolation of niches within the framework of complexity theory, evolutionary theory and transition to sustainability could favor the emergence of peace in a sustainable context.
经济、环境和社会系统之间的相互关系可能对和平产生影响。经济主体影响环境,环境反过来又改变环境。因此,这个问题需要理解这些联系的方法。本文旨在从经济作用的可持续性角度确定有助于巩固和平的理论要素。本文提出了一种方法,通过使用元搜索引擎进行文献综述,跟踪科学讨论的趋势,并对具有开创性的作者进行综述,从而获得理论元素,通过相反的案例方法进行分析。在复杂性理论、进化理论和向可持续性过渡的框架内,合作、群体间选择和生态位隔离可以促进可持续背景下的和平出现。英文摘要:经济、环境和社会制度之间的相互关系应对和平产生影响。经济因素影响环境,进而改变环境。因此,这个问题需要理论方法来理解这些联系。本文旨在从经济作用的可持续角度确定有助于巩固和平的理论因素。For this through meta-search而开展的,《文献》,中监测科学讨论and review of精囊authors。= =地理= =根据美国人口普查,这个县的面积为。会议确定,在复杂性理论、演化理论和向可持续性过渡的框架内进行合作、群体间选择和隔离,可有利于在可持续背景下出现和平。
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引用次数: 0
North American Natural Gas Markets under LNG Demand Growth and Infrastructure Restrictions LNG需求增长和基础设施限制下的北美天然气市场
Pub Date : 2020-09-20 DOI: 10.5547/01956574.43.2.BCAL
Baturay Çalci, B. Leibowicz, J. Bard
Strong liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand growth, especially in Asia, could increasingly motivate gas infrastructure development in North America. Nevertheless, opposition to new gas infrastructure is formidable in some of the U.S. states and Canadian provinces that are well positioned to supply LNG to the Asian market. In this paper, we investigate the combined effects of LNG demand growth and export infrastructure restrictions on North American natural gas markets through 2050. To do so, we build a mixed complementarity model with endogenous capacity investments. It is parameterized using publicly available data sources. Our results show that even if new export terminals cannot be constructed on the West Coast, LNG exports largely shift to other regions rather than suffer an overall decline. Increasing external demand for LNG puts upward pressure on regional prices in North America, and directs production and pipeline flows toward the regions that export LNG.
强劲的液化天然气(LNG)需求增长,尤其是在亚洲,可能会日益刺激北美天然气基础设施的发展。然而,在美国的一些州和加拿大的一些省份,反对新建天然气基础设施的声音非常强大,这些州和省份有能力向亚洲市场供应液化天然气。在本文中,我们研究了到2050年液化天然气需求增长和出口基础设施限制对北美天然气市场的综合影响。为此,我们建立了一个具有内生能力投资的混合互补模型。它使用公开可用的数据源进行参数化。我们的研究结果表明,即使不能在西海岸建造新的出口终端,液化天然气出口也会大量转移到其他地区,而不是整体下降。对液化天然气的外部需求增加给北美地区的价格带来了上行压力,并将生产和管道流量引向液化天然气出口地区。
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引用次数: 5
Tourists’ Satisfaction towards Bao Loc City, Vietnam 越南保禄市游客满意度调查
Pub Date : 2020-07-08 DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/n7u3c
H. Giao, Tran Dieu Hang, Le Thai Son, Dinh Kiem, Bui Nhat Vuong
Bao Loc City is the new tourism destination in Lam Dong province, Vietnam, where more and more tourists have been drawn to pay a visit. This study aims to test the correlative impact of tourism service quality factors on satisfaction of the tourists who have visited Bao Loc City. The key theory used in this study is SERVQUAL scale. The survey sample consists of 350 tourists who stayed overnight in Bao Loc City in the last quarter of 2019; 315 valid survey questionnaires could be used for the analysis. The research applied Cronbach’s Alpha, exploratory factor analysis (EFA), confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), structural equation modeling (SEM), and bootstrap test. The results show that the satisfaction of the tourists who have visited Bao Loc City has been affected statistically by three factors: (1) Responsiveness; (2) Reliability; and (3) Empathy, which were ranked by descending importance. Surprisingly, the research found that Tangibles and Assurance do not have an impact on tourists’ satisfaction towards Bao Loc City. The research formulates some suggestions to the city policy-makers and the tourism businesses management in Bao Loc City in order to enhance tourists’ satisfaction through improving the tourism service quality at Bao Loc City.
保禄市是越南林同省新的旅游目的地,越来越多的游客被吸引到这里来旅游。本研究旨在检验旅游服务品质因素对宝罗市游客满意度的相关影响。本研究使用的关键理论是SERVQUAL量表。调查样本包括2019年第四季度在宝loc市过夜的350名游客;有效调查问卷315份,可用于分析。研究应用了Cronbach’s Alpha、探索性因子分析(EFA)、验证性因子分析(CFA)、结构方程模型(SEM)和bootstrap检验。结果表明:到访宝loc市的游客满意度受到三个因素的统计影响:(1)响应性;(2)可靠性;(3)共情,其重要性由高到低排列。令人惊讶的是,研究发现,有形资产和担保对游客对宝loc城市的满意度没有影响。本研究为宝乐市的政策制定者和旅游企业管理提出了建议,以期通过提高宝乐市的旅游服务质量来提高游客的满意度。
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引用次数: 6
Environment Versus Jobs: An Industry-Level Analysis of Sweden 环境与就业:瑞典产业层面分析
Pub Date : 2020-06-26 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3636135
G. Amjadi
This paper aims to investigate whether the claimed conflict regarding "jobs versus the environment" exists in the Swedish manufacturing industry. The impact of environmental management costs on employment is studied using a detailed firm-level panel data for the Swedish manufacturing industry over the period 2001–2008. The results show that the sign and magnitude of such costs on employment ultimately depends on the aggregate sector-level output demand elasticity. If the output demand is inelastic, environmental management costs induce small positive net changes in employment, while a more elastic output demand could offset the positive effect and result in negative, but in most sectors relatively small, net effects on employment. Hence, the results do not generally indicate any substantial trade-off between jobs and the environment. However, in the absence of empirically estimated demand effects, the policy implication from this study still generally advocates a careful attitude regarding national environmental initiatives for sectors exposed to world market price competition.
本文旨在调查是否声称冲突关于“工作与环境”存在于瑞典制造业。使用2001-2008年期间瑞典制造业的详细公司层面面板数据,研究了环境管理成本对就业的影响。结果表明,这些成本对就业的影响最终取决于总部门水平的产出需求弹性。如果产出需求是非弹性的,环境管理成本会导致就业的小的正净变化,而更有弹性的产出需求可以抵消这一积极影响,并对就业产生负的、但在大多数部门相对较小的净影响。因此,研究结果一般并不表明工作和环境之间有任何实质性的权衡。然而,在缺乏经验估计的需求效应的情况下,本研究的政策含义仍然普遍提倡对面临世界市场价格竞争的部门的国家环境倡议采取谨慎的态度。
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引用次数: 2
A Review of Environmental, Social and Health Impact Assessment (Eshia) Practice in Nigeria: A Panacea for Sustainable Development and Decision Making 审查尼日利亚的环境、社会和健康影响评估做法:可持续发展和决策的灵丹妙药
Pub Date : 2020-06-24 DOI: 10.15406/mojph.2020.09.00328
Morufu Olalekan Raimi
Local participation is always beneficial for sustainable action and environmental problems resulting from urban implementation due to the failure of social and institutional change necessary for a successful transformation of rural life to urban life ahead of the rapid movement of the population. Despite good legal practice and comprehensive guidelines, evidence suggests that Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) or more broadly Environmental, Social and Health Impact Assessment (ESHIA) have not yet been found satisfactory in Nigeria, as the current system amounts to duplication of efforts and cost. However, ESHIA has been developed and integrated to help manage project activities, facilities, and operations sustainably, so that both economic and ecological profits are accrued (sustainable development) or ensure that any development project does not result in excessive deterioration of and/or the irreversible adverse effect on any component of the environment – a recite for sustainable development. A literature review was done by using a variety of search engines including Research Gate, Google Scholar, Academia, Mendeley, SSRN search strategy to retrieve research publications, “grey literature” and expert working group reports. The thrust of this study is to evaluate the potential benefits of ESHIA as a tool for sustainable environmental development. The evaluation and implementation of EIA are one of the strengths of these tools. Indeed, EIA is the first and foremost management tool employed to help mitigate adverse, potential, and associated impacts of proposed major developments in our environment. EIA is a regulatory requirement that is efficiently used to improve performance, project design, enhancing decision-making, and facilitating policy programs in a sustainable environment. An evaluation of the EIA systems reveals several weaknesses of the EIA system. These include the inadequate capacity of EIA approval authorities, deficiencies in screening and scoping, poor EIA quality, insufficient public participation, and weak monitoring and erratic government policies. Overall, most EIA study rarely meets the objectives of being a project planning tool to contribute to achieving sustainable development and mitigate the impact of the development project. The study recommends some directions for the future to ensure that entire content of the EIA are religiously implemented, review the existing EIA act, increase the expertise of EIA consultants, create a liaison office with an international organisation and with sister agency, ESHIA must enjoy Improved budgetary provision, time latitude, spatial contexts and methodological improvements for outcome measures to achieve results that are relevant to sustainable development by improving project design, enhancing decision making and facilitating policy programs.
在人口迅速流动之前,成功地将农村生活转变为城市生活所必需的社会和体制变革未能成功,因此,地方参与总是有利于可持续行动和城市执行所造成的环境问题。尽管有良好的法律实践和全面的指导方针,但有证据表明,尼日利亚的环境影响评估(EIA)或更广泛的环境、社会和健康影响评估(ESHIA)尚未令人满意,因为目前的制度相当于重复工作和成本。然而,发展和整合环境影响评估是为了帮助可持续地管理项目活动、设施和运营,从而产生经济和生态效益(可持续发展),或确保任何开发项目不会导致环境的过度恶化和/或对环境的任何组成部分产生不可逆转的不利影响——这是可持续发展的一种背诵。使用Research Gate、Google Scholar、Academia、Mendeley、SSRN等多种搜索引擎检索研究出版物、“灰色文献”和专家工作组报告,进行文献综述。本研究的主要目的是评价作为可持续环境发展工具的环境影响评价的潜在效益。环评的评价和实施是这些工具的优势之一。事实上,环境影响评估是首要的管理工具,有助减轻拟议中的大型发展项目对环境的不利、潜在及相关影响。环境影响评估是一项监管要求,可以有效地用于改善绩效、项目设计、加强决策和促进可持续环境中的政策计划。对环评系统的评价揭示了环评系统的若干弱点。包括环评审批部门能力不足、环评甄别不足、环评质量不高、公众参与不足、监督不力、政府政策不稳定等。总体而言,大多数环评研究很少能达到作为项目规划工具的目标,以协助实现可持续发展和减轻发展项目的影响。该研究建议了未来的一些方向,以确保环境影响评估的全部内容得到认真执行,审查现有的环境影响评估法,提高环境影响评估顾问的专业知识,与国际组织和姐妹机构建立联络处,环境影响评估必须享有更好的预算拨款和时间自由度,通过改进项目设计、加强决策和促进政策方案,实现与可持续发展相关的成果措施的空间背景和方法改进。
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引用次数: 27
Diversification and Economic Growth in Nigeria (1981–2016): An Econometric Approach Based on Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) 尼日利亚多元化与经济增长(1981-2016):基于普通最小二乘(OLS)的计量经济学方法
Pub Date : 2020-05-19 DOI: 10.29333/ejosdr/8285
Valentine Joseph Owan, Victor Chijioke Ndibe, Chidera Catherine Anyanwu
Economic diversification has been the glamour of successive administrations in Nigeria, especially amidst the dwindling oil-revenue in recent years, which has resulted from the fluctuations in world crude oil prices. This study aims at investigating the impact of diversifying the economy on the economic growth in Nigeria. Secondary data on GDP growth rate as a proxy for economic growth, non-oil GDP as a proxy for GDP diversification, non-oil export as a proxy for export diversification, investment and exchange rate, between 1981 and 2016, were adopted in the study. An econometric approach of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) was adopted to empirically analyze the collected data and the result revealed that non-oil gross domestic product impacted positively and significantly on economic growth while exchange rate had an inverse but significant nexus on economic growth in Nigeria, within the period covered in the study. However, non-oil export and investment impacted positively but insignificantly on economic growth in Nigeria. The study recommends the encouragement of increased productivity in the real sector as well as the adoption of stable and favourable exchange rate policies by the government in order to accelerate economic growth in Nigeria.
经济多样化一直是尼日利亚历届政府的魅力,特别是在近年来由于世界原油价格波动导致石油收入减少的情况下。本研究旨在调查经济多元化对尼日利亚经济增长的影响。研究采用了1981年至2016年间的GDP增长率代表经济增长、非石油GDP代表GDP多样化、非石油出口代表出口多样化、投资和汇率等二手数据。采用普通最小二乘(OLS)的计量经济学方法对收集的数据进行实证分析,结果显示,在研究涵盖的期间内,非石油国内生产总值对经济增长产生了积极而显著的影响,而汇率对尼日利亚的经济增长具有反比但显著的联系。然而,非石油出口和投资对尼日利亚的经济增长有积极但不显著的影响。该研究建议政府鼓励提高实体部门的生产率,并采取稳定和有利的汇率政策,以加速尼日利亚的经济增长。
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引用次数: 7
Reply to the Comment by Zhang and Fang (2019) on Consumption-Based versus Production-Based Accounting of CO2 Emissions 回复张和方(2019)关于基于消费与基于生产的二氧化碳排放核算的评论
Pub Date : 2019-12-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3496792
Axel Franzen, S. Mader
Zhang and Fang (2019) criticize our finding (Franzen and Mader, 2018) that there is (on average) no carbon leakage from developed to developing countries. In the paper we show that countries’ GDP per capita is statistically not related to the ratio of consumptionbased (CBA) to production-based (PBA) accounting of CO2 emissions. Hence, the ratio of the two accounting schemes does not differ between richer and poorer countries or, put differently, does not depend on a country’s GDP per capita. Zhang and Fang (2019) have two concerns with our paper: First, they believe that we should have used the Global Carbon Atlas (GCA) for both CBA and PBA and should not have mixed the data with the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR); we used the EDGAR to obtain countries’ PBA and the GCA to obtain their CBA. Second, the authors argue that we should not have used the ratio of CBA to PBA but the difference of CBA – PBA for our analyses. In what follows, we respond to both concerns.
Zhang和Fang(2019)批评了我们的发现(Franzen和Mader, 2018),即发达国家(平均而言)没有碳泄漏到发展中国家。在本文中,我们表明各国的人均GDP在统计上与以消费为基础(CBA)与以生产为基础(PBA)的二氧化碳排放核算比例无关。因此,这两种核算方案的比例在富国和穷国之间没有差异,换句话说,不取决于一个国家的人均国内生产总值。Zhang和Fang(2019)对我们的论文有两个担忧:首先,他们认为我们应该将全球碳图集(GCA)用于CBA和PBA,而不应该将数据与全球大气研究排放数据库(EDGAR)混合;我们使用EDGAR获得各国的PBA,使用GCA获得各国的CBA。其次,作者认为我们不应该使用CBA与PBA的比率,而应该使用CBA - PBA的差异来进行分析。在下文中,我们对这两方面的关切作出回应。
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引用次数: 3
The (Non)Separability of Air Quality: Evidence from Millions of Households Across the United States 空气质量的(非)可分离性:来自美国数百万家庭的证据
Pub Date : 2019-11-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3480867
C. Makridis
The costs and benefits of environmental policy depend crucially on the assumed microelasticities between market and non-market goods. In their absence, general equilibrium models have assumed environmental amenities are perfect substitutes with market goods, such as consumption and leisure, producing qualitatively dierent welfare assessments of environmental policy under even a narrow range of micro-elasticities. I estimate these elasticities using over 40 million observations from Census micro-data, together with weather and air quality measures at the county-level, between 2000-2014, finding that the elasticities between air quality and consumption, housing, and leisure are 7.14, .54, and .2, respectively. These estimates are identified from county-industry-specific deviations in air quality from the county averages after conditioning on shocks common to all counties within a state. Under simulated counterfactual distributions for 2010, these elasticities imply that the Clean Air Act Amendments had very large negative eects.
环境政策的成本和收益在很大程度上取决于市场商品和非市场商品之间假定的微观弹性。在缺乏环境福利的情况下,一般均衡模型假设环境福利是消费和休闲等市场商品的完美替代品,即使在很小的微观弹性范围内,也会对环境政策产生质量不同的福利评估。我利用2000年至2014年期间人口普查微观数据中的4000多万次观察结果,以及县级的天气和空气质量措施,估计了这些弹性,发现空气质量与消费、住房和休闲之间的弹性分别为7.14、0.54和0.2。这些估计值是在对一个州内所有县共同的冲击进行调节后,根据县行业特定的空气质量与县平均水平的偏差确定的。在2010年模拟的反事实分布下,这些弹性意味着《清洁空气法修正案》具有非常大的负面影响。
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引用次数: 0
Corporate Sustainability Reporting and Corporate Financial Growth 企业可持续发展报告和企业财务增长
Pub Date : 2019-10-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3472418
A. Al Nuaimi, Haitham Nobanee
This study is a detailed synthesis of sustainable practices within the financial systems and how corporate disclosure is fundamental with regard to sustainable financial growth. This report illustrates the value added to specific firms and industries through sustainable approaches as well as the occurrence of more optimal decisions by managers through sustainable policy integration with the financial decisions. The report provides an outlook on the risks associated with the sustainability initiative and how such risks can be managed for seamless integration of sustainability aspects within the financial systems. The research also covers a case study of Western and Islamic financial systems and finally concludes on the relevance of the non-financial and macroeconomic factors in more accurate prediction of financial distress in firms.
本研究是财务系统内可持续实践的详细综合,以及公司披露如何对可持续财务增长至关重要。本报告说明了通过可持续方法增加到特定公司和行业的价值,以及通过可持续政策与财务决策的整合,管理者做出更优决策的情况。该报告展望了与可持续发展倡议相关的风险,以及如何管理这些风险,以便将可持续发展方面无缝整合到金融系统中。该研究还涵盖了西方和伊斯兰金融体系的案例研究,并最终得出结论,非金融因素和宏观经济因素在更准确地预测企业财务困境中的相关性。
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引用次数: 21
Socio-Economic Momentum: A New Indicator Derived Using Research Documents Per Capita (RDPC) for Five Most Populous Nations 社会经济势头:利用研究文件得出的五个人口最多国家的人均(RDPC)新指标
Pub Date : 2019-02-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3337069
Kartik Hegadekatti
It appears intuitive that technological advances and economic growth are closely related. This is evident by the fact that technologically advanced nations also have a developed economy. Technological advances of a country are based on the research done in various areas by the respective nation. The quantum of research done by a country can be discerned by the Research papers published by the citizens of that nation. Research conducted by any country is also influenced by the education levels attained by that nation’s society. Thus economic growth, quantum of research conducted and educational levels of the citizenry appear to be closely interlinked.

This paper attempts to measure the actual inter-relations between the educational levels, quantum of research conducted and economic growth of nations with statistical methods using data from large demographic functionalities for observations. Using these observations, an attempt will be made to define and measure “Socio-economic Momentum”. Socio-Economic Momentum as we will examine, might also be a reliable indicator of a nation's robustness of its welfare state model. In this endeavour, Research Documents Per Capita (RDPC) will be used as a metric to test the reliability of the underlying inter-relations.
技术进步和经济增长密切相关,这似乎是直觉。技术先进的国家也有发达的经济,这一点很明显。一个国家的技术进步是以各自国家在各个领域所做的研究为基础的。一个国家所做的研究可以从该国公民发表的研究论文中看出。任何国家进行的研究也受到该国社会所达到的教育水平的影响。因此,经济增长、进行的研究数量和公民的教育水平似乎是密切相关的。本文试图用统计方法衡量各国教育水平、进行的研究数量和经济增长之间的实际相互关系,这些方法使用来自大型人口功能的数据进行观察。利用这些观察结果,将尝试界定和衡量“社会经济势头”。正如我们将研究的那样,社会经济势头也可能是一个国家福利国家模式稳健性的可靠指标。在这一努力中,人均研究文件(RDPC)将被用作检验潜在相互关系可靠性的度量标准。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
SRPN: Sustainable Growth (Topic)
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