The study of the spread of rumors is helpful to understand the rumors spread in time so as to predict and block rumors spreading. This paper selects the propagation situation of similar network rumors, uses R/S analysis method to calculate Hurst index, further analyzes the structural characteristics of rumors communication situation, and finds that rumors spreading has the characteristics of state continuity and fractal distribution. Then we set up a fractal interpolation model to depict changes over time and predict the trend in the short term, and found that it is basically consistent with the original data trend. The results show that using the Hurst index to estimate the vertical scale factor and the fractal interpolation model to predict the rumors are feasible and effective, and this paper provides theoretical basis for correctly predicting the development of rumors and further implementing governance.
{"title":"Fractal interpolation-based forecasting model of rumor spreading situation","authors":"Yongqin Yuan, Qin-ying Wang, Fengming Liu","doi":"10.1145/3277139.3277171","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1145/3277139.3277171","url":null,"abstract":"The study of the spread of rumors is helpful to understand the rumors spread in time so as to predict and block rumors spreading. This paper selects the propagation situation of similar network rumors, uses R/S analysis method to calculate Hurst index, further analyzes the structural characteristics of rumors communication situation, and finds that rumors spreading has the characteristics of state continuity and fractal distribution. Then we set up a fractal interpolation model to depict changes over time and predict the trend in the short term, and found that it is basically consistent with the original data trend. The results show that using the Hurst index to estimate the vertical scale factor and the fractal interpolation model to predict the rumors are feasible and effective, and this paper provides theoretical basis for correctly predicting the development of rumors and further implementing governance.","PeriodicalId":272703,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Information Management and Management Science","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-08-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125291641","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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