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PSN: Regime Transitions (Topic)最新文献

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De Las Transiciones Al Estancamiento. Revisitando La Democratización En La Obra De Guillermo O’Donnell (From Transitions to Stagnation. Revisiting Democratization in the Work of Guillermo O’Donnell) 从过渡到停滞。重新审视吉列尔莫·奥唐奈(Guillermo O 'Donnell)的《从过渡到停滞》(From Transitions to Stagnation)中的民主化。他的父亲是一名律师,母亲是一名律师。
Pub Date : 2016-06-25 DOI: 10.17230/CO-HERENCIA.13.24.6
D. Nieto, Juan Pablo Milanese
This paper focuses on reconstructing the influential contributions from political scientist Guillermo O’Donnell to studies on the processes of democratization. In order to do this, it discusses his main analytical and conceptual elaborations placing them in the political and historical context in which they were developed. It further analyses their relation to other theoretical developments and ideological debates that have followed them. In particular, this review focuses, first, on the period of transitions to democracy in Latin America, showing how O’Donnell’s theoretical constructs were part of his wider political and normative commitments. Such commitments are subsequently reflected in the political concerns, research interests and conceptual contributions by the author in the post-transitional period, related to his ideas on delegate democracy and horizontal accountability, both discussed in the second part of this review.
本文的重点是重建政治学家吉列尔莫·奥唐纳对民主化进程研究的重要贡献。为了做到这一点,它讨论了他的主要分析和概念性阐述,将它们置于它们发展的政治和历史背景中。它进一步分析了它们与随后的其他理论发展和意识形态辩论的关系。特别地,这篇评论首先聚焦于拉丁美洲向民主过渡的时期,展示了奥唐纳的理论建构如何成为他更广泛的政治和规范承诺的一部分。这种承诺随后反映在作者在过渡后时期的政治关切、研究兴趣和概念贡献中,涉及他关于代表民主和横向问责制的想法,这两者都在本审查的第二部分中讨论。
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引用次数: 1
Macroeconomic Regimes and Regime Shifts 宏观经济制度和制度变迁
Pub Date : 2016-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/BS.HESMAC.2016.03.004
James D. Hamilton
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引用次数: 88
Hungary's U-Turn 匈牙利的转变
Pub Date : 2015-07-11 DOI: 10.1556/204.2015.37.3.1
J. Kornai
For two decades Hungary, like the other Eastern European countries, followed a general policy of establishing and strengthening the institutions of democracy, rule of law, and a market economy based on private property. However, since the elections of 2010, when Viktor Orban's Fidesz party came to power, Hungary has made a dramatic U-turn. This article investigates the different spheres of society: political institutions, the rule of law, and the influence of state and market on one another, as well as the world of ideology (education, science and art), and describes the U-turn’s implications for these fields and the effect it has on the life of people. It argues against the frequent misunderstandings in the interpretation and evaluation of the Hungarian situation, pointing out some typical intellectual fallacies. It draws attention to the dangers of strengthening nationalism, and to the ambivalence evident in Hungarian foreign policy, and looks into the relationship between Hungary and the Western world, particularly the European Union. Finally, it outlines the possible scenarios resulting from future developments in the Hungarian situation.
二十年来,匈牙利和其他东欧国家一样,遵循建立和加强民主制度、法治和以私有财产为基础的市场经济的一般政策。然而,自2010年维克托·欧尔班(Viktor Orban)领导的青民盟(Fidesz)上台执政以来,匈牙利发生了戏剧性的180度大转弯。本文调查了社会的不同领域:政治制度、法治、国家和市场相互影响,以及意识形态世界(教育、科学和艺术),并描述了u型转变对这些领域的影响及其对人们生活的影响。它反对在解释和评价匈牙利局势时经常出现的误解,指出了一些典型的知识谬误。它让人们注意到民族主义加强的危险,以及匈牙利外交政策中明显的矛盾心理,并探讨了匈牙利与西方世界,特别是欧盟之间的关系。最后,它概述了匈牙利局势未来发展可能造成的情况。
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引用次数: 63
A Crisis of Constitutional Democracy in Post-Communist Europe: 'Lands In-Between' Democracy and Authoritarianism 后共产主义欧洲的宪政民主危机:民主与威权主义之间的“土地”
Pub Date : 2015-05-08 DOI: 10.1093/ICON/MOV010
B. Bugarič
Just ten years after their triumphant “return to Europe” in 2004, Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries are facing a very serious crisis of constitutional democracy. This crisis — which coincides with the Eurozone crisis — has a specific origin. This article will show that the rule-of-law institutions in these countries are less robust than in Western countries. In other words, Western democracies can cope more successfully with various attacks on their liberal institutions because their courts, media, human rights organizations, and ombudsmen have a longer and better-developed tradition of independence and professionalism. Conversely, where such institutions are weak and underdeveloped, as is the case in CEE, there is always the potential danger of a drift towards authoritarianism and “illiberal democracy.” As examples from Hungary and Slovenia show, even the most advanced CEE democracies are not immune to this backsliding. In a relatively short period of time, both countries regressed from consolidated democracies into two distinct forms of semi-authoritarian and diminished democratic regimes. Particular worrying is the ease with which this regression occurred
在2004年成功“回归欧洲”仅仅10年后,中东欧国家正面临着一场非常严重的宪政民主危机。这场与欧元区危机同时发生的危机有着特殊的起源。本文将表明,这些国家的法治制度不如西方国家健全。换句话说,西方民主国家能够更成功地应对对其自由制度的各种攻击,因为它们的法院、媒体、人权组织和司法特派员具有更悠久、更成熟的独立性和专业精神传统。相反,在这些制度薄弱和不发达的地方,如中东欧,总是存在向威权主义和“非自由民主”倾斜的潜在危险。匈牙利和斯洛文尼亚的例子表明,即使是最先进的中东欧民主国家也无法幸免于这种倒退。在相对较短的时间内,两国都从巩固的民主倒退到两种不同形式的半专制和削弱的民主政权。尤其令人担忧的是,这种倒退如此容易发生
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引用次数: 64
Земље у Транзицији и Ризик Улагања Капитала (Countries in Transition and Capital Investment Risk)
Pub Date : 2014-06-30 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2468631
Šerif Šabović, Vuk Miletić, Zoran T. Jovanović
Serbian Abstract: Највећи ризик за већину међународних инвеститора је ризик земље и ризик суверенитета. Ризик земље најчешће подразумева ризик политичке и економска неизвесности. Земље у транзицији карактерише велики буџетски дефицит, инфлација, апресијација домаће валуте, нестабилни услови размене, ниска акумулација, ограничења и рестрикције на тржишту. Посебну врсту ризика представља тржишна концентрација и монопол. Од осталих фактора који повећавају ризик улагања иностраног капитала у земљама у транзицији треба истаћи ризик плаћања, тржишни ризик, оперативни ризик, ванбилансни ризици, консолидација и конвергенција, прање новца, офшор пословање, неадекватна пруденциона контрола банака и других финансијских посредника, изражена корупција и криминал. Услед синерегтског деловања ових фактора, државе у транзицији могу бити изложене ризику опадања међународне репутације. English Abstract: For the majority of international investors, country's risk and sovereignty risk are the greatest risks. Country's risk usually includes political and economic uncertainty. Transition countries are characterized by big budget deficit, inflation, domestic currrency appreciation, inconstant exchange terms, low accumulation, limits and market restrictons. Special risk type is market concentration and monopoly. Other factors increasing foerign capital investment in transition countries are payment risk, market risk, operating risk, off-balance sheet risks, consolidation and convergence, money laundering, off-shore business, inadequate prudential control of banks and other financial mediators, outstanding corruption and criminal. Due to sinergetic action of these factors, transition states may be exposed to the risk of international reputation decrease.
塞尔维亚 摘要:国际投资者面临的一个主要风险是土地和主权风险。土地风险意味着政治和经济不安全的风险。过境地震的特点是巨额预算赤字、通货膨胀、国内紧缩、汇率不稳定、积累率低、贸易限制和约束。集中和垄断是一个重大风险。在造成外国资本从过境地扣留风险的其他因素中,还有支付风险、贸易风险、运营风险和 vanbijlanski 风险、合并和融合、新来者的权利、离岸信息、对银行保险和其他金融中介机构的审慎控制不足、腐败和犯罪。这些因素都会导致国际声誉受损。英文摘要:对于大多数国际投资者来说,国家风险和主权风险是最大的风险。国家风险通常包括政治和经济的不确定性。转型期国家的特点是预算赤字大、通货膨胀、国内货币升值、汇率不稳定、积累少、限制多、市场受限。特殊风险类型是市场集中和垄断。增加转型期国家外国资本投资的其他因素有:支付风险、市场风险、经营风险、资产负债表外风险、合并和趋同、洗钱、离岸业务、银行和其他金融中介机构的审慎控制不足、突出的腐败和犯罪。由于这些因素的协同作用,转型期国家可能面临国际声誉下降的风险。
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引用次数: 0
Economic Structure and Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Policy Implications for Bangladesh 经济结构和宏观经济不确定性:对孟加拉国的政策影响
Pub Date : 2014-01-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2377006
B. Gunter, Faisal Z. Ahmed, A. F. M. Ataur Rahman, Jesmin Rahman
This paper begins with examining Bangladesh’s economic structural transformation during 1980-2010, which is compared and contrasted with the transformation of India and Pakistan. It then calculates and compares the three countries’ macroeconomic volatility and uncertainty for the observation period (1980-2010), using unbiased volatility and uncertainty measures. It also reviews the evolution of Bangladesh’s macroeconomic uncertainty for each decade (i.e., the 1980s, 1990s and the 2000s). It shows, for example, that Bangladesh’s GDP volatility and uncertainty have been increasing over time. Reflecting on the fact that macroeconomic uncertainty has a negative impact on investment and growth, the paper derives various policy implications for Bangladesh, highlighting the importance of economic diversification, countercyclical monetary policy, smoothing external factors, and building up reserves and buffers.
本文首先考察了1980-2010年期间孟加拉国的经济结构转型,并与印度和巴基斯坦的转型进行了比较和对比。然后,使用无偏波动性和不确定性度量,计算和比较观察期(1980-2010)三个国家的宏观经济波动性和不确定性。它还回顾了孟加拉国每十年(即20世纪80年代、90年代和21世纪头十年)宏观经济不确定性的演变。例如,它表明,随着时间的推移,孟加拉国的GDP波动性和不确定性一直在增加。考虑到宏观经济的不确定性对投资和增长产生了负面影响,本文得出了对孟加拉国的各种政策影响,强调了经济多样化、逆周期货币政策、平滑外部因素以及建立储备和缓冲的重要性。
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引用次数: 2
Firm Investment Decisions in the Post-Conflict Context 冲突后环境下的企业投资决策
Pub Date : 2013-11-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2484629
Colin O’Reilly
Civil conflict disrupts the incentive for firms to make productive investments. This paper studies the determinants of profit reinvestment for firms in post-conflict transition economies. Results indicate that while access to finance is an important determinant of reinvestment in general, access to finance is not as important in the post-civil war context. However, property rights protections, in particular institutions of contract enforcement, are a more important determinant of profit reinvestment for firms operating in the post-conflict environment than for firms in general. Context specific obstacles to investment imply unique policy responses to facilitate post-conflict recovery.
国内冲突破坏了企业进行生产性投资的动力。本文研究了冲突后转型经济中企业利润再投资的决定因素。结果表明,虽然获得融资通常是再投资的重要决定因素,但在内战后的背景下,获得融资并不那么重要。然而,对于在冲突后环境中经营的公司来说,产权保护,特别是合同执行机构,是利润再投资的一个比一般公司更重要的决定因素。具体的投资障碍意味着采取独特的政策应对措施,以促进冲突后的恢复。
{"title":"Firm Investment Decisions in the Post-Conflict Context","authors":"Colin O’Reilly","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2484629","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2484629","url":null,"abstract":"Civil conflict disrupts the incentive for firms to make productive investments. This paper studies the determinants of profit reinvestment for firms in post-conflict transition economies. Results indicate that while access to finance is an important determinant of reinvestment in general, access to finance is not as important in the post-civil war context. However, property rights protections, in particular institutions of contract enforcement, are a more important determinant of profit reinvestment for firms operating in the post-conflict environment than for firms in general. Context specific obstacles to investment imply unique policy responses to facilitate post-conflict recovery.","PeriodicalId":274895,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Regime Transitions (Topic)","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-11-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122238892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Controlled Dismantlement of the Eurozone: A Proposal for a New European Monetary System and a New Role for the European Central Bank 有控制的欧元区解体:关于欧洲新货币体系和欧洲央行新角色的建议
Pub Date : 2013-09-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2320440
S. Kawalec, Ernest Pytlarczyk
In Kawalec and Pytlarczyk (2013), we argue that the single European currency constitutes a serious threat to the European Union and the Single European Market,and we propose a controlled dismantlement of the Eurozone. In this paper, we undertake a deeper analysis of the measures which would minimize the risks throughout the process of the Eurozone dismantlement and contribute to rebuilding confidence in the future of Europe. · The dismantlement should be the result of a consensual decision to replace the euro with an alternative system of currency coordination. · The dismantlement should start with the exit of the most competitive countries. In the meantime, the euro should remain the common currency of less competitive countries. · The European Central Bank (ECB) should be preserved as the central bank for all 17 Eurozone member countries, even after some of those countries have replaced the euro with new currencies. In this capacity, the ECB should be in charge of designing,preparing, and implementing the segmentation of the Eurozone as well as managing the new currency coordination system – European Monetary System 2. · The forthcoming EU – USA free trade agreement would build new momentum for economic growth and contribute to restoring confidence in the future of Europe. As of today, neither the member states of the Eurozone nor European institutions such as the European Commission or the ECB have been able to come up with a game-changing proposal such as the Eurozone dismantlement. However, this may change as a result of adverse economic and political developments. One of the potential triggers could be the situation in France. Classification-JEL: E5, E58, F15, F31, G18
在Kawalec和Pytlarczyk(2013)中,我们认为单一欧洲货币对欧盟和单一欧洲市场构成了严重威胁,我们建议有控制地解散欧元区。在本文中,我们深入分析了在整个欧元区解体过程中将风险降到最低的措施,并有助于重建对欧洲未来的信心。·解体应是各方一致决定的结果,即用另一种货币协调体系取代欧元。·解体应该从最具竞争力的国家退出开始。与此同时,欧元仍应是竞争力较弱国家的通用货币。·欧洲中央银行(ECB)应保留为所有17个欧元区成员国的中央银行,即使其中一些国家已经用新货币取代了欧元。在这种情况下,欧洲央行应该负责设计、准备和实施欧元区的分割,并管理新的货币协调体系——欧洲货币体系2。·即将到来的欧盟-美国自由贸易协定将为经济增长建立新的动力,并有助于恢复对欧洲未来的信心。时至今日,无论是欧元区成员国还是欧盟委员会(European Commission)或欧洲央行(ECB)等欧洲机构,都未能提出解体欧元区等改变游戏规则的建议。然而,由于不利的经济和政治发展,这种情况可能会改变。其中一个潜在的触发因素可能是法国的局势。分类- jel: E5、E58、F15、F31、G18
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引用次数: 4
Problems Encountered During the Transition to Market Economy in Azerbaijan and Solution Attempts 阿塞拜疆向市场经济转型过程中遇到的问题及其解决办法
Pub Date : 2013-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2328910
C. Bulut, Elchin Suleymanov, Hasanov Fakhri
Turkish Abstract: Azerbaycan 18 Ekim 1991 de bagimsizligini ilan ettikten sonra ekonomisinin liberasyonu ve serbest piyasa ekonomisine gecmek maksadiyla bir cok onemli reformlara imza atmistir. Ekonomik hedeflerin gerceklestirilmesinde ulkenin en onemli kaynaklari ise hemen hemen hepsi Hazar’da yerlesen petrol ve dogal gaz rezervlerinden olusan enerji kaynaklariydi. Bu nedenle ekonomik hedeflere ulasma adina Hazar enerji kaynaklarinin en etkin bicimde kullanilmasi gerekmekteydi ve oyle de oldu. Zira Azerbaycan, ekonomik, siyasi ve sosyal acilardan yeniden yapilanma, kalkinma, gelisme ve bagimsizlik adina, Hazar enerji kaynaklarindan 1994 yilindan itibaren faydalanmaya basladi. Enerji kaynaklarinin uretim ve dunya piyasalarina ihracina iliskin cok onemli projelere karar verildi, insa edildi ve kullanilmaya baslandi.Bagimsizligini kazanan Hazar Havzasi ulkelerinden Kazakistan ve Azerbaycan buyuk petrol potansiyellerini, Turkmenistan ise dogal gaz zenginligini ekonomilerinde degisimi geceklestirmek icin gerekli kaynaklari saglamak ve gecis doneminin sikintilarini hafifletmek amaciyla bir an once kullanma ihtiyaci duydular. Ancak mevcut boru hatlari, Sovyetler Birligi'nin planli ekonomisi cercevesinde cumhuriyetler arasi isbolumune gore duzenlenmis oldugundan, bunlarin ihrac amacli kullanim imkânlari sinirliydi. Sovyetler Birligi'nin dagilmasinin ardindan Rusya disindeki uc kiyi devleti; Azerbaycan, Kazakistan ve Turkmenistan'in bagimsizliklarini ilan etmesiyle Hazar'in onemi buyuk oranda artmistir. Bu ulkeler icin Hazar enerji kaynaklarinin gelistirilmesi ekonomilerini yeniden yapilandirma, kalkinma ve dunya ekonomisine entegre olma acisindan onem arz etmektedir. English Abstract: After re-gaining its independence on 18 October 1991, the Republic of Azerbaijan started to transform to the market-based economy and to integrate into the world economy. The country’s oil and natural gas reserves have been considered the main source for financing range of government programs for reforms. On the one hand, these reserves had to be used effectively; on the other hand, there was a huge demand for foreign investment for extraction. To this end, Azerbaijan has signed “Contract of the Century” in 1994. Although Azerbaijan has wide oil and natural gas reserves, it has faced a number of difficulties in its transition way. This study analyzes these problems and reforms for solving them. One of the types of the problems were related to the economic structure of the former Soviet Union: disruption of the economic ties between the republics resulted in decline of production, high levels of unemployment and prices and consequently led to an economic recession in all of the republics. Another set of problems was related to lack of sufficient institutional bases to transform to the market economy. Moreover, internal conflicts between the political parties and groups for having authority as well as political chaos in the republic can be considered other serious problems d
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引用次数: 3
An Arab Open Government Maturity Model for Social Media Engagement 社会媒体参与的阿拉伯开放政府成熟度模型
Pub Date : 2013-06-09 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2276717
Wesley Schwalje, Walid Aradi
While embrace of social media as a component of open government initiatives is still in its infancy in the Arab World, there is much expectation that public sector social media use will have a transformative impact on citizen participation in government, policy formation, and the way public sector entities conduct business. However, existing evolutionary models of e-government and open government maturity based on the experiences of Western democracies offer little support to Arab entities that operate in an institutional environment characterized by much different governance traditions. This study develops a social media maturity model which views public sector social media adoption as an evolutionary process that may involve substantial organizational changes for Arab institutions to move from initial stages of social media adoption to more advanced stages of social media use that truly reflect transparency, public participation, and collaboration. We find that current social media use by Arab government entities is focused primarily on one-way government to citizen communications that chronicle the activities of entities rather than offering additional public transparency and opportunities for citizen participation and collaboration. Arab open government initiatives remain focused on providing information on low priority activities which is already available via traditional media and on institutional websites. In this way, rather than being a force for reform, social media use in open government initiatives has perpetuated existing patterns of opacity, centralized decision making, and paternalism.
虽然在阿拉伯世界,将社交媒体作为开放政府举措的一个组成部分仍处于起步阶段,但人们普遍期望公共部门社交媒体的使用将对公民参与政府、政策制定和公共部门实体开展业务的方式产生变革性影响。然而,现有的基于西方民主国家经验的电子政务和开放政府成熟的进化模型对在治理传统截然不同的制度环境中运作的阿拉伯实体提供的支持很少。本研究开发了一个社会媒体成熟度模型,该模型将公共部门社会媒体的采用视为一个进化过程,可能涉及阿拉伯机构从社会媒体采用的初始阶段向社会媒体使用的更高级阶段的重大组织变革,真正反映了透明度、公众参与和合作。我们发现,阿拉伯政府实体目前使用的社交媒体主要集中在单向政府与公民的沟通上,记录实体的活动,而不是为公民参与和合作提供额外的公共透明度和机会。阿拉伯公开政府倡议的重点仍然是提供已经通过传统媒体和机构网站提供的关于低优先级活动的信息。这样一来,社交媒体在政府开放计划中的使用非但没有成为改革的力量,反而使现有的不透明、集中决策和家长式作风的模式永久化。
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引用次数: 9
期刊
PSN: Regime Transitions (Topic)
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