We use newly collected original panel data on the super-wealthy individuals in Poland (observed over 2002-2018) to study the impact of the rich’s political connections on their wealth level, mobility among the rich and the risk of dropping off the rich list. The multimillionaires are classified as politically connected if we find reliable news stories linking their wealth to political contacts or questionable licenses, or if a person was formerly an informant of communist Security Service or member of the communist party, or when the origins of wealth are connected to the privatization process. We find that political connections are not associated with the wealth level of Polish multimillionaires, but that they are linked to the 20-30% lower probability of upward mobility in the ranking of the rich. Moreover, being a former member of the communist party or secret police informant increases the risk of dropping off the Polish rich list by 79%. Taken together, our results show that, contrary to some other post-socialist countries such as Russia or Ukraine, there is little evidence that the Polish economy suffers from crony capitalism.
{"title":"Political Connections and the Super-Rich in Poland","authors":"Katarzyna Sałach, M. Brzeziński","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3631195","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3631195","url":null,"abstract":"We use newly collected original panel data on the super-wealthy individuals in Poland (observed over 2002-2018) to study the impact of the rich’s political connections on their wealth level, mobility among the rich and the risk of dropping off the rich list. The multimillionaires are classified as politically connected if we find reliable news stories linking their wealth to political contacts or questionable licenses, or if a person was formerly an informant of communist Security Service or member of the communist party, or when the origins of wealth are connected to the privatization process. We find that political connections are not associated with the wealth level of Polish multimillionaires, but that they are linked to the 20-30% lower probability of upward mobility in the ranking of the rich. Moreover, being a former member of the communist party or secret police informant increases the risk of dropping off the Polish rich list by 79%. Taken together, our results show that, contrary to some other post-socialist countries such as Russia or Ukraine, there is little evidence that the Polish economy suffers from crony capitalism.","PeriodicalId":274895,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Regime Transitions (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131085923","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This article focuses on the evolutionary dynamics of the world economy after the Second World War to current day by reviewing the subject in evolutionary and holistic terms. In particular, its purpose is to examine the structuring of the current crisis and the prospects for overcoming it by advancing toward a new developmental phase, a new sustainable model of global development. We articulate our approach precisely at the link between the interconnection and the dialectic interdependence of the central structural components of global dynamics. In this direction, we introduce, propose, and utilize a three-sided structural analysis of global dynamics, a triptych. In particular, we claim that the changes in the global system are imprinted and can be studied at three co-located and dialectically interwoven central structural levels: at the level of current international regimes, at the level of central models of development and crisis, and at the level of the dominant types of business innovation. As a whole and on every level, the structural changes define and form in the background the evolutionary dynamics of the world economy, and thus by extension prescribe the conditions for the global system to construct the trajectory to exit from its current crisis.
{"title":"The Phases of the Postwar Evolution of Capitalism: The Transition from the Current Crisis into a New Worldwide Developmental Trajectory","authors":"Charis Vlados","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3476527","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3476527","url":null,"abstract":"This article focuses on the evolutionary dynamics of the world economy after the Second World War to current day by reviewing the subject in evolutionary and holistic terms. In particular, its purpose is to examine the structuring of the current crisis and the prospects for overcoming it by advancing toward a new developmental phase, a new sustainable model of global development. We articulate our approach precisely at the link between the interconnection and the dialectic interdependence of the central structural components of global dynamics. In this direction, we introduce, propose, and utilize a three-sided structural analysis of global dynamics, a triptych. In particular, we claim that the changes in the global system are imprinted and can be studied at three co-located and dialectically interwoven central structural levels: at the level of current international regimes, at the level of central models of development and crisis, and at the level of the dominant types of business innovation. As a whole and on every level, the structural changes define and form in the background the evolutionary dynamics of the world economy, and thus by extension prescribe the conditions for the global system to construct the trajectory to exit from its current crisis.","PeriodicalId":274895,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Regime Transitions (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131002505","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Increasingly, decentralization has proven to be a policy fix selected by developing countries whose new governments represent a significant regime change. This analysis adds to the literature on decentralization by identifying the extent to which factors that lead to divergent policy preferences result in greater definition of decentralization in a given constitution. The principle of subsidiarity suggests that the more localities and regions vary from each other, either in terms of population, language, religion, or resource endowments, the more likely these populations’ policy preferences differ. This implies that the benefits of subsidiarity, and hence, decentralization are greater in such contexts. As a result, pressures for decentralization on constitutional drafters should increase with a country’s size, population, terrain ruggedness, number of ethnicities and religions, and regional variance in wealth. I test several aspects of this hypothesis, based upon initial data from 48 Muslim countries’ constitutions. Beyond the noteworthy conclusion that population is more important than territorial size in determining constitutional definition of subnational government, the results also suggest linguistic divides play an important role in determining the heterogeneity of policy preferences within a given nation, more so than simple ethnic diversity.
{"title":"Demand for Constitutional Decentralization","authors":"E. Alston","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3406947","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3406947","url":null,"abstract":"Increasingly, decentralization has proven to be a policy fix selected by developing countries whose new governments represent a significant regime change. This analysis adds to the literature on decentralization by identifying the extent to which factors that lead to divergent policy preferences result in greater definition of decentralization in a given constitution. The principle of subsidiarity suggests that the more localities and regions vary from each other, either in terms of population, language, religion, or resource endowments, the more likely these populations’ policy preferences differ. This implies that the benefits of subsidiarity, and hence, decentralization are greater in such contexts. As a result, pressures for decentralization on constitutional drafters should increase with a country’s size, population, terrain ruggedness, number of ethnicities and religions, and regional variance in wealth. I test several aspects of this hypothesis, based upon initial data from 48 Muslim countries’ constitutions. Beyond the noteworthy conclusion that population is more important than territorial size in determining constitutional definition of subnational government, the results also suggest linguistic divides play an important role in determining the heterogeneity of policy preferences within a given nation, more so than simple ethnic diversity.","PeriodicalId":274895,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Regime Transitions (Topic)","volume":"285 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-06-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116104341","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The aim of this study is to identify the typology of female in transition countries, and investigate their adaptation to democracy and market economy and subjective well-being.We first test the nexus between adaptation and life satisfaction, and then analyze heterogenous effect to female with various demographic background. There are four key findings from this study. First, there is a contrast between adaptation to democracy and market economy and preference to state intervention. Female population in transition tend to adapt less to democracy and market economy while support for state involvement to solve social problems. Second, similar to male, educated, healthy, rich, self-employed, and married female showed higher level of adaptation. Third, wage workers and unemployed female showed negative sign of preference for democracy, while self-employed female showed positive sign. Last, unlike male population, married and single female, compared to widowed, separated, and divorced one, adapt more to democracy and market economy, and against for government ownership while support competition.
{"title":"Transition and Gender: Whose Transition Was More Adaptive?","authors":"C. Choi, Hyejin Woo","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3294900","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3294900","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this study is to identify the typology of female in transition countries, and investigate their adaptation to democracy and market economy and subjective well-being.We first test the nexus between adaptation and life satisfaction, and then analyze heterogenous effect to female with various demographic background. There are four key findings from this study. First, there is a contrast between adaptation to democracy and market economy and preference to state intervention. Female population in transition tend to adapt less to democracy and market economy while support for state involvement to solve social problems. Second, similar to male, educated, healthy, rich, self-employed, and married female showed higher level of adaptation. Third, wage workers and unemployed female showed negative sign of preference for democracy, while self-employed female showed positive sign. Last, unlike male population, married and single female, compared to widowed, separated, and divorced one, adapt more to democracy and market economy, and against for government ownership while support competition.","PeriodicalId":274895,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Regime Transitions (Topic)","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132584447","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
S. Lindberg, P. Lindenfors, Anna Lührmann, Laura Maxwell, Juraj Medzihorský, Richard J. Morgan, M. Wilson
What explains successful democratization? This paper makes four contributions towards providing more sophisticated answers to this question. Building on the comparative case study and large-N literature, it first presents a new approach to conceptualizing the discrete beginning of a period of political liberalization, tracing its progression, and classifying episodes by successful vs. different types of failing outcomes, thus avoiding potentially fallacious assumptions of unit homogeneity. Second, it provides the first ever dataset (EPLIB) of the full universe of episodes from 1900 to 2018, and third, it demonstrates the value of this approach, showing that while several established covariates are useful for predicting outcomes, none of them seem to explain the onset of a period of liberalization. Fourth, it illustrates how the identification of episodes makes it possible to study processes quantitatively using sequencing methods to detail the importance of the order of change for liberalization outcomes.
{"title":"Successful and Failed Episodes of Democratization: Conceptualization, Identification, and Description","authors":"S. Lindberg, P. Lindenfors, Anna Lührmann, Laura Maxwell, Juraj Medzihorský, Richard J. Morgan, M. Wilson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3274599","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3274599","url":null,"abstract":"What explains successful democratization? This paper makes four contributions towards providing more sophisticated answers to this question. Building on the comparative case study and large-N literature, it first presents a new approach to conceptualizing the discrete beginning of a period of political liberalization, tracing its progression, and classifying episodes by successful vs. different types of failing outcomes, thus avoiding potentially fallacious assumptions of unit homogeneity. Second, it provides the first ever dataset (EPLIB) of the full universe of episodes from 1900 to 2018, and third, it demonstrates the value of this approach, showing that while several established covariates are useful for predicting outcomes, none of them seem to explain the onset of a period of liberalization. Fourth, it illustrates how the identification of episodes makes it possible to study processes quantitatively using sequencing methods to detail the importance of the order of change for liberalization outcomes.","PeriodicalId":274895,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Regime Transitions (Topic)","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2018-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121446476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
German reunification is an important subject of study as a model of unification for Korea, a country which has remained divided for decades. In the process of German reunification, peace was achieved without any physical conflict. Moreover, economic integration was successfully accomplished without any severe shocks. Meanwhile, it is an important issue whether German reunification methods and policies can be successfully applied to Korea, which presents a different set of political, economic and social conditions. In this book we explore the various social and economic challenges that arose during the process of German reunification, as well as the successes and failures of policies to solve them, and through this suggest policy implications for the Korean government.
{"title":"Economic Transition in Unified Germany and Implications for Korea","authors":"Hyung-gon Jeong, Gerhard Heimpold","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3181828","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3181828","url":null,"abstract":"German reunification is an important subject of study as a model of unification for Korea, a country which has remained divided for decades. In the process of German reunification, peace was achieved without any physical conflict. Moreover, economic integration was successfully accomplished without any severe shocks. Meanwhile, it is an important issue whether German reunification methods and policies can be successfully applied to Korea, which presents a different set of political, economic and social conditions. In this book we explore the various social and economic challenges that arose during the process of German reunification, as well as the successes and failures of policies to solve them, and through this suggest policy implications for the Korean government.","PeriodicalId":274895,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Regime Transitions (Topic)","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-12-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129266409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This report analyzes the changes in economic freedom, political institutions, and performance of 25 former centrally planned (FCP) economies following the collapse of communism. The degree of economic freedom among these countries varied considerably. The FCP countries with higher levels of economic freedom in 2015 as measured by the Economic Freedom of the World summary ratings tended to grow more rapidly, achieve larger increases in international trade, and attract more foreign direct investment than their counterparts with less economic freedom. Differences among the FCP countries in the protection of civil liberties, democratic political institutions, and administration of government with less corruption are also identified and analyzed. A regression model of economic growth during 1995-2015 for 122 countries was developed and used to examine the determinants of growth and the performance of the FCP economies relative to high-income and other developing countries throughout the world. Regression analysis was also used to analyze the life satisfaction measure of the World Values Survey. The regression analysis indicates that economic freedom exerts a strong positive impact on both the growth of per capita GDP and the life satisfaction of individuals. Finally, the economic freedom area ratings were used to identify strengths and weaknesses of the FCP economies. Most of the FCP countries registered substantial increases in economic freedom in the areas of size of government, access to sound money, international trade, and regulation. But they have failed to improve their legal systems, and several FCP countries have even experienced recent deteriorations in this area. While the FCP countries achieved impressive growth and closed the income gap relative to high-income countries during 1995-2015, without improvements in the legal area, it is unlikely that this progress will continue. The addendum provides additional details for ten countries that have made the transition from communism to markets most successfully.
{"title":"An Examination of the Former Centrally Planned Economies 25 Years after the Fall of Communism","authors":"James D. Gwartney, Hugo M. Montesinos","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3064417","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3064417","url":null,"abstract":"This report analyzes the changes in economic freedom, political institutions, and performance of 25 former centrally planned (FCP) economies following the collapse of communism. The degree of economic freedom among these countries varied considerably. The FCP countries with higher levels of economic freedom in 2015 as measured by the Economic Freedom of the World summary ratings tended to grow more rapidly, achieve larger increases in international trade, and attract more foreign direct investment than their counterparts with less economic freedom. Differences among the FCP countries in the protection of civil liberties, democratic political institutions, and administration of government with less corruption are also identified and analyzed. A regression model of economic growth during 1995-2015 for 122 countries was developed and used to examine the determinants of growth and the performance of the FCP economies relative to high-income and other developing countries throughout the world. Regression analysis was also used to analyze the life satisfaction measure of the World Values Survey. The regression analysis indicates that economic freedom exerts a strong positive impact on both the growth of per capita GDP and the life satisfaction of individuals. Finally, the economic freedom area ratings were used to identify strengths and weaknesses of the FCP economies. Most of the FCP countries registered substantial increases in economic freedom in the areas of size of government, access to sound money, international trade, and regulation. But they have failed to improve their legal systems, and several FCP countries have even experienced recent deteriorations in this area. While the FCP countries achieved impressive growth and closed the income gap relative to high-income countries during 1995-2015, without improvements in the legal area, it is unlikely that this progress will continue. The addendum provides additional details for ten countries that have made the transition from communism to markets most successfully.","PeriodicalId":274895,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Regime Transitions (Topic)","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127750584","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Wei Li, R. Bruner, R. M. Conroy, Richard Hoyer-Ellefsen
Today, roughly 30 countries are classified as "emerging markets" by the World Bank. Investor interest in these markets has grown substantially over time. During the first half of the 1990s, privatization and economic liberalization that took place across emerging market countries substantially enlarged the set of emerging market securities available to foreign investors and thereby provided a strong and decisive impulse for portfolio investments in emerging markets. The purpose of this technical note is to describe some key characteristics of emerging capital markets and compare them with those of developed and less-developed or frontier markets. This technical note is the first of three notes on emerging markets. See also UVA-F-1454 and UVA-F-1455. Excerpt UVA-F-1453 Investing in Emerging Markets Technical Note Series No. 1 CHARACTERISTICS OF EMERGING MARKETS Today, roughly 30 countries are considered to be in transition to higher levels of economic development and have hence earned the title “emerging markets” from the International Finance Corporation (IFC) of The World Bank. Initially (in 1981) the IFC emerging market index included stocks of publicly traded companies from nine countries. By 2002, the total number of countries covered in the IFC emerging market indices had reached 33. Standard & Poor's acquired the IFC indices in January 2000, and they are now known as the S&P/IFC indices. Investor interest in emerging markets has grown over time. Before 1980, little capital flowed into these markets due to the lack of financial products and services available to foreign investors and the perceived high market risk and volatility. Beginning in 1981, private portfolio investment in the emerging markets began to grow. During the first half of the 1990s, the privatization and economic liberalization that took place across emerging market countries substantially enlarged the set of emerging market securities available to foreign investors, who thereby developed a strong and decisive interest in them for portfolio investments. Net portfolio inflows to emerging markets peaked in 1994 at $ 113 billion, only to decrease sharply in the following years, mainly due to the widespread financial turmoil that affected these markets (the “Tequila Effects,” kicked off by the devaluation of the Mexican peso). The purpose of this technical note is to describe some key characteristics of emerging capital markets and compare them with those of developed and less-developed, or frontier, markets. Although other emerging market indices are available (e.g., Morgan Stanley's Capital International [MSCI] index), the S&P/IFC cohort is used in this technical note, because it includes a broader set of countries than competing indices. S&P/IFC considers a market to be “emerging” if it meets at least one of the following criteria: 1. It is in a low- or middle-income country, as defined by the World Bank, and . . .
{"title":"Characteristics of Emerging Economies","authors":"Wei Li, R. Bruner, R. M. Conroy, Richard Hoyer-Ellefsen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2974421","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2974421","url":null,"abstract":"Today, roughly 30 countries are classified as \"emerging markets\" by the World Bank. Investor interest in these markets has grown substantially over time. During the first half of the 1990s, privatization and economic liberalization that took place across emerging market countries substantially enlarged the set of emerging market securities available to foreign investors and thereby provided a strong and decisive impulse for portfolio investments in emerging markets. The purpose of this technical note is to describe some key characteristics of emerging capital markets and compare them with those of developed and less-developed or frontier markets. This technical note is the first of three notes on emerging markets. See also UVA-F-1454 and UVA-F-1455. Excerpt UVA-F-1453 Investing in Emerging Markets Technical Note Series No. 1 CHARACTERISTICS OF EMERGING MARKETS Today, roughly 30 countries are considered to be in transition to higher levels of economic development and have hence earned the title “emerging markets” from the International Finance Corporation (IFC) of The World Bank. Initially (in 1981) the IFC emerging market index included stocks of publicly traded companies from nine countries. By 2002, the total number of countries covered in the IFC emerging market indices had reached 33. Standard & Poor's acquired the IFC indices in January 2000, and they are now known as the S&P/IFC indices. Investor interest in emerging markets has grown over time. Before 1980, little capital flowed into these markets due to the lack of financial products and services available to foreign investors and the perceived high market risk and volatility. Beginning in 1981, private portfolio investment in the emerging markets began to grow. During the first half of the 1990s, the privatization and economic liberalization that took place across emerging market countries substantially enlarged the set of emerging market securities available to foreign investors, who thereby developed a strong and decisive interest in them for portfolio investments. Net portfolio inflows to emerging markets peaked in 1994 at $ 113 billion, only to decrease sharply in the following years, mainly due to the widespread financial turmoil that affected these markets (the “Tequila Effects,” kicked off by the devaluation of the Mexican peso). The purpose of this technical note is to describe some key characteristics of emerging capital markets and compare them with those of developed and less-developed, or frontier, markets. Although other emerging market indices are available (e.g., Morgan Stanley's Capital International [MSCI] index), the S&P/IFC cohort is used in this technical note, because it includes a broader set of countries than competing indices. S&P/IFC considers a market to be “emerging” if it meets at least one of the following criteria: 1. It is in a low- or middle-income country, as defined by the World Bank, and . . .","PeriodicalId":274895,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Regime Transitions (Topic)","volume":"30 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-05-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124992048","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Starting at years 2010 and 2011, the Arab Spring uprisings altered the landscape of the Mediterranean region. Domestic and external shocks mixed together to worsen the socio-economic situation of many countries in the area. In this context, the tourism industry has shown an important degree of resilience. In Southern Mediterranean European countries remarkable growth of tourism revenues helped to balance the impact of the global financial crisis. In contrast, in the south shore of the Mediterranean, the North of Africa region, the growing instability have resulted in a dramatic drop in the number of international visitors, exacerbating the impact of the global crisis for countries highly dependent on tourism receipts. The first chapter of this research project presents a brief overview on the performance of the tourism industry in the Mediterranean region in recent years. Egypt and Spain are taken as reference case studies, helping to illustrate the way followed by the tourism and hospitality industry since the beginning of the transition process. In the second chapter we propose a marketing mix model in order to improve the conditions of workers and efficiency of the hospitality industry in the transition process, testing the model for the Egyptian case. In the third chapter we provide evidence on changes taking place in the profile of tourists arriving to Spain as our case of analysis, and investigate how these changes have been affecting the level of expenditure and economic sustainability for the tourism sector from a microeconomic perspective.
{"title":"Winners and Losers in the Tourism and Hospitality Industry along the Transition Process: Evidence from South and North MED Countries","authors":"D. Abdou","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2918446","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2918446","url":null,"abstract":"Starting at years 2010 and 2011, the Arab Spring uprisings altered the landscape of the Mediterranean region. Domestic and external shocks mixed together to worsen the socio-economic situation of many countries in the area. In this context, the tourism industry has shown an important degree of resilience. In Southern Mediterranean European countries remarkable growth of tourism revenues helped to balance the impact of the global financial crisis. In contrast, in the south shore of the Mediterranean, the North of Africa region, the growing instability have resulted in a dramatic drop in the number of international visitors, exacerbating the impact of the global crisis for countries highly dependent on tourism receipts. The first chapter of this research project presents a brief overview on the performance of the tourism industry in the Mediterranean region in recent years. Egypt and Spain are taken as reference case studies, helping to illustrate the way followed by the tourism and hospitality industry since the beginning of the transition process. In the second chapter we propose a marketing mix model in order to improve the conditions of workers and efficiency of the hospitality industry in the transition process, testing the model for the Egyptian case. In the third chapter we provide evidence on changes taking place in the profile of tourists arriving to Spain as our case of analysis, and investigate how these changes have been affecting the level of expenditure and economic sustainability for the tourism sector from a microeconomic perspective.","PeriodicalId":274895,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Regime Transitions (Topic)","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2017-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115486974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
State repression is a common tool used by autocrats, and to understand how the implementation of repression unfolds, I develop a theory with two key features. First, uncertainty resulting from political instability creates a novel agency problem between a leader and members of the repressive apparatus. As a consequence of this agency problem, leaders must compensate the repressive apparatus for conducting repression, thus affecting leaders' net benefit of retaining power. Second, political instability and the use of repression comprise an endogenous process that depends on a coordination dynamic between civilians. I show that leaders wanting to implement repression prefer to target civilians that are concentrated - (geographically, economically, or socially) and that the relationship with the capacity to resist is more nuanced. I examine the composition of a repressive government that arises in equilibrium, which has implications for data collection and the design of future empirical studies of government repression.
{"title":"The Agency Problem Underlying the Use of Repression","authors":"Scott A. Tyson","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2864452","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2864452","url":null,"abstract":"State repression is a common tool used by autocrats, and to understand how the implementation of repression unfolds, I develop a theory with two key features. First, uncertainty resulting from political instability creates a novel agency problem between a leader and members of the repressive apparatus. As a consequence of this agency problem, leaders must compensate the repressive apparatus for conducting repression, thus affecting leaders' net benefit of retaining power. Second, political instability and the use of repression comprise an endogenous process that depends on a coordination dynamic between civilians. I show that leaders wanting to implement repression prefer to target civilians that are concentrated - (geographically, economically, or socially) and that the relationship with the capacity to resist is more nuanced. I examine the composition of a repressive government that arises in equilibrium, which has implications for data collection and the design of future empirical studies of government repression.","PeriodicalId":274895,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Regime Transitions (Topic)","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-11-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128233068","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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