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PSN: Regime Transitions (Topic)最新文献

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Why Do Emerging Economies Accumulate Debt and Reserves? 新兴经济体为何积累债务和外汇储备?
Pub Date : 2013-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2533719
Juliana Salomao
Reserve accumulation has the benefit of decreasing external vulnerability but it comes with a high cost. Emerging economies have been accumulating reserves without reducing their levels of debt. This behavior is puzzling because these economies could also decrease their vulnerability by decreasing their debt. In this paper I construct a stochastic dynamic equilibrium model of a small open economy with non contingent debt and reserve assets. Reserves have the benefit of smoothing consumption when the country is in autarky, after defaulting. Once we assume the asymmetric default costs of Arellano (2008), the results show that the optimal policy is to accumulate positive levels of debt and reserves in equilibrium. These economies accumulate reserves without decreasing debt because it decreases the cost of autarky after they default. For governments to accumulate reserves and debt simultaneously they need to be patient enough to save but still have positive probability of default, the asymmetric default costs generate that.
储备积累的好处是减少外部脆弱性,但代价很高。新兴经济体一直在积累外汇储备,却没有降低债务水平。这种行为令人费解,因为这些经济体也可以通过减少债务来降低自身的脆弱性。本文构造了一个具有非或有债务和储备资产的小型开放经济的随机动态均衡模型。当国家在违约后处于自给自足状态时,储备有平滑消费的好处。一旦我们假设Arellano(2008)的违约成本不对称,结果表明最优政策是在均衡状态下积累正水平的债务和储备。这些经济体在不减少债务的情况下积累外汇储备,因为这降低了它们违约后自给自足的成本。对于同时积累储备和债务的政府来说,他们需要有足够的耐心储蓄,但仍然有正的违约概率,不对称的违约成本产生了这一点。
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引用次数: 3
India-Myanmar Connectivity: Current Status and Future Prospects 印缅互联互通:现状与未来展望
Pub Date : 2013-05-04 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2260693
P. De, J. Ray
Restoration of democracy in Myanmar is one of the most important developments witnessed by Asia in the contemporary period. After a prolonged isolation, Myanmar has embarked on a path of political and economic reforms since 2011, paving the way for unlocking the country’s large potential. This paper presents the trade and connectivity links between India and Myanmar, and identifies the challenges and prospects.
缅甸恢复民主是当代亚洲最重要的事态发展之一。在长期孤立之后,缅甸自2011年以来走上了政治和经济改革的道路,为释放该国的巨大潜力铺平了道路。本文介绍了印度和缅甸之间的贸易和互联互通联系,并确定了挑战和前景。
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引用次数: 7
Income and Democracy: Lipset's Law Revisited 收入与民主:重新审视利普塞特定律
Pub Date : 2012-12-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781475596649.001
Anke Hoeffler, R. Bates, G. Fayad
We revisit Lipset's law, which posits a positive and significant relationship between income and democracy. Using dynamic and heterogeneous panel data estimation techniques, we find a significant and negative relationship between income and democracy: higher/lower incomes per capita hinder/trigger democratization. Decomposing overall income per capita into its resource and non-resource components, we find that the coefficient on the latter is positive and significant while that on the former is significant but negative, indicating that the role of resource income is central to the result.
我们重新审视利普塞特定律,该定律假定收入与民主之间存在积极而重要的关系。使用动态和异构面板数据估计技术,我们发现收入与民主之间存在显著的负相关关系:人均收入较高/较低阻碍/触发民主化。将人均总收入分解为资源和非资源两部分,发现后者的系数为正且显著,而前者的系数为显著但为负,表明资源收入的作用对结果至关重要。
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引用次数: 19
Chile's Democracy (1992-2006) 智利的民主(1992-2006)
Pub Date : 2012-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2375807
Chaim Shinar
In this paper, I posit a research question: To what extent was Chile's democracy consolidated in the years 1992-2006 in light of Robert Dahl’s definition of a real democracy and the model presented by Linz and Stepan in their article "Toward Consolidated Democracies"?According to many researchers, Chile in 2006 was a model for the stabilization of democratic regimes in Latin America, thus it is very important to examine the extent to which at that period Chile implemented the democratic values of developed Western democracies.The paper is divided into three parts.In Part One, I present the procedural conditions of a real democracy according to Robert Dahl, and the model of consolidated democracies as presented by Linz and Stepan in the article "Toward Consolidated Democracies".In Part Two, I compare the adequacy of Chile's democracy according to the procedural conditions defined by Dahl and the degree to which it complies with the five basic conditions presented in Linz and Stepan’s model, while reviewing Chile’s political, economic and social developments between the years 1992-2006.In Part Three, I present researchers’ arguments regarding Chile's democracy as a result of recent developments.
在本文中,我提出了一个研究问题:根据罗伯特·达尔对真正民主的定义以及林茨和斯捷潘在他们的文章《走向巩固的民主》中提出的模型,智利的民主在1992-2006年间巩固了到什么程度?许多研究人员认为,2006年的智利是拉丁美洲民主政权稳定的典范,因此研究智利在多大程度上实施了西方发达民主国家的民主价值观是非常重要的。本文共分为三个部分。在第一部分中,我根据罗伯特·达尔的观点介绍了真正民主的程序条件,以及林茨和斯捷潘在文章《走向巩固的民主》中提出的巩固民主的模式。在第二部分中,我根据Dahl定义的程序条件,比较了智利民主的适当性,以及它符合林茨和斯捷潘模型中提出的五个基本条件的程度,同时回顾了智利1992-2006年间的政治、经济和社会发展。在第三部分,我提出了研究人员关于智利民主作为最近发展的结果的论点。
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引用次数: 0
Dove or Hawk? Characterizing Monetary Policy Regime Switches in India 鸽子还是鹰?印度货币政策机制转变的特征
Pub Date : 2012-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2220920
M. Hutchison, Rajeswari Sengupta, Nirvikar Singh
The past two decades have witnessed a worldwide move by emerging markets to adopt explicit or implicit inflation targeting regimes. A notable and often discussed exception to this trend, of course, is China which follows a pegged exchange rate regime supported by capital controls. Another major exception is India. It is not clear how to characterize the monetary regime or identify the nominal monetary anchor in India. Is central bank policy in India following a predictable rule that is heavily influenced by a quasi inflation target? And how has the monetary regime been affected by the gradual process of financial liberalization in India? To address these points, we investigate monetary policy regime change in India using a Markov switching model to estimate a time-varying Taylor-type rule for the Reserve Bank of India. We find that the conduct of monetary policy over the last two decades can be characterized by two regimes, which we term ‘Hawk’ and ‘Dove.’ In the first of these two regimes, the central bank reveals a greater relative (though not absolute) weight on controlling inflation vis-a-vis narrowing the output gap. The central bank however was found to be in the “Dove” regime about half of our sample period, focusing more on the output gap and exchange rate targets to stimulate exports, rather than moderating inflation. India thus seems to be following its own direction in the conduct of monetary policy, seemingly not overly influenced by the emphasis on quasi-inflation targeting seen in many emerging markets.
过去20年,新兴市场在全球范围内采取了明确或隐性的通胀目标制。当然,这一趋势的一个值得注意且经常被讨论的例外是中国。中国实行的是由资本管制支持的钉住汇率制度。另一个主要例外是印度。目前尚不清楚如何描述印度的货币制度或确定名义货币锚。印度央行的政策是否遵循一种受准通胀目标严重影响的可预测规则?货币制度是如何受到印度金融自由化进程的影响的?为了解决这些问题,我们使用马尔可夫转换模型来研究印度货币政策制度的变化,以估计印度储备银行的时变泰勒型规则。我们发现,过去二十年的货币政策行为可以用两种制度来描述,我们称之为“鹰派”和“鸽派”。在这两种机制中的第一种中,相对于缩小产出缺口,央行在控制通胀方面表现出更大的相对(尽管不是绝对)权重。然而,我们发现中国央行在大约一半的样本期内处于“鸽派”模式,它更多地关注产出缺口和汇率目标,以刺激出口,而不是缓和通胀。因此,印度似乎在遵循自己的货币政策方向,似乎没有受到许多新兴市场强调准通胀目标的过度影响。
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引用次数: 37
Democratization and Civic Capital in Italy 意大利的民主化和公民资本
Pub Date : 2011-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2240152
L. Guiso, P. Pinotti
We document a sharp reversal in electoral participation between the North and the South of Italy after the 1912 enfranchisement which extended voting rights from a limited lite to (almost) all adult males. When voting was restricted to the elite, electoral turnout was higher in the South but falls significantly below that in the North after the enfranchisement. Furthermore the new gap is never bridged over the following century and participation remains lower in the South despite the enrichment of democratic institutions and further extension of voting rights to the female population during the post war democratic republic. This pattern in the data is consistent with a simple model where individuals' voting in political elections is affected by private benefits and by civic duty, only elites can grab private benefits from participation in politics and civic culture differs across communities. We also find that extension of voting rights to non-elites results in a significant transfer of power to their political organizations only among populations with a high sense of civic duties. Together with the very persistent gap in participation between North and South our findings suggest that democratization - a process of concession of democratic rights - can benefit non-elites only when the latter have already a high sense of civic capital and is unlikely to be a viable avenue for inducing norms of civic behavior.
我们记录了1912年意大利的选举权从有限的终身投票权扩展到(几乎)所有成年男性之后,意大利北部和南部之间的选举参与急剧逆转。当选举权仅限于精英阶层时,南方的投票率较高,但在获得选举权后,投票率明显低于北方。此外,在接下来的一个世纪里,新的差距从未弥合,尽管在战后民主共和国期间民主机构丰富了,妇女的投票权进一步扩大,但南方的参与率仍然较低。数据中的这种模式与一个简单的模型是一致的,即个人在政治选举中的投票受到私人利益和公民义务的影响,只有精英才能从参与政治中获得私人利益,公民文化在社区之间存在差异。我们还发现,将投票权扩大到非精英阶层,只会在具有高度公民责任感的人群中导致权力向其政治组织的重大转移。再加上南北双方在参与方面的持续差距,我们的研究结果表明,民主化——一种让步民主权利的过程——只有在非精英阶层已经具有高度的公民资本意识的情况下才能使他们受益,而且不太可能成为诱导公民行为规范的可行途径。
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引用次数: 34
Book Review: Perspectives on Chinese Urbanization 书评:中国城市化的视角
Pub Date : 2011-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2497478
Joshua K. Leon
The scale and speed of migration into Chinese cities is unprecedented in modern times. Consequently, no single state has ever been pressed to alter its built environment so drastically in just one generation. Much has and will be written about this critical period in urban history. Three timely recent books stand out. The Concrete Dragon by Thomas J. Campanella lucidly describes the broader aesthetic alterations in Chinese cities during this planning and building boom. Shanghai Rising, a volume edited by Xiangming Chen, explores the complicated nexus of state power and global forces that underpins growth in the eponymous business capital. The Great Urban Transformation by You-Tien Hsing explains China’s furious territorial politics from a geographic perspective. Together these interdisciplinary works speak to the broader aesthetic, cultural, and territorial dimensions of urban China’s (literal) ascent. While urbanization is hardly unique to China, these books all give sufficient emphasis to the national context. They grapple with the requisite role of global forces in reshaping local environments, but in toto they tell a story of urbanization with Chinese characteristics.
中国城市移民的规模和速度在近代是前所未有的。因此,从来没有一个州在一代人的时间里如此剧烈地改变其建筑环境。关于这个城市历史上的关键时期,已经写了很多,将来也会写很多。最近有三本及时出版的书引人注目。托马斯·j·坎帕内拉的《混凝土之龙》清晰地描述了在规划和建设热潮中中国城市更广泛的审美变化。陈向明主编的《上海崛起》一书探讨了支撑以上海命名的商业之都发展的国家权力与全球力量之间复杂的关系。邢友天的《城市大转型》从地理角度解释了中国激烈的领土政治。这些跨学科的作品共同讲述了中国城市(字面上)崛起的更广泛的美学、文化和地域维度。虽然城市化并非中国独有,但这些书都充分强调了中国的国情。他们努力应对全球力量在重塑当地环境中的必要作用,但总的来说,他们讲述了一个具有中国特色的城市化故事。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of Privatization Process in Azerbaijan 阿塞拜疆私有化进程分析
Pub Date : 2010-10-15 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2218335
Elvin Alirzayev
Bagimsizliklarini kazanir kazanmaz Postsovyet ulkeleri basta ozellestirme gelmekle reform calismalarina basladilar. Dunya ozellestirme pratiginin bu ulkelere boyle gec gelmesinin tek sebebi, devlet mulkiyetinin agirlik kazandigi planli ekonominin hakim olmasiydi. Arka arkaya ozellestirme programlari uygulayan Postsovyet ulkeleri, cesitli ozellestirme yontemleriyle ekonominin yapisini degistirmislerdir. Ozellestirme programlari bu ulkelerde ekonominin onemli parcasini olusturmaktaydi. Calismada Azerbaycan orneginde Postsovyet ulkeleri ekonomik yapisi ve ozellestirme evreleri arastirilmaya calisilmistir.While gain independence, Post-Soviet countries began to reform as in the first instance a privatization. The only cause world privatization practice came so late to this countries is that, planned economy was ruler. The Post-Soviet countries that started to put into practice privatization, with different privatization program changed their economic structure. Privatization programs become very important part of economy of these countries. In this study, the economic structure and privatization stages of Postsoviet countries in model of Azerbaijan Republic has been examined.
您的邮件地址已被 Postsovyet ulkeleri basta ozellestirme gelmekle reform calismalarina basladilar.我们的目标是,在国家和地方各级政府的支持下,通过改革来实现我们的目标。在美国邮政局,您可以找到您所需的免费计划。该计划的主要目标是在全国范围内开展活动。在获得独立的同时,后苏联国家开始进行改革,首先是私有化。世界私有化实践在这些国家姗姗来迟的唯一原因是计划经济的统治者。开始实行私有化的后苏联国家通过不同的私有化计划改变了经济结构。私有化计划已成为这些国家经济的重要组成部分。本研究以阿塞拜疆共和国为模型,研究了后苏联国家的经济结构和私有化阶段。
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引用次数: 0
Human Resource and Research Capacity Development as a Prerequisite of Successful Inclusion of the Republic of Croatia into the European Union 人力资源和研究能力发展是克罗地亚共和国成功加入欧洲联盟的先决条件
Pub Date : 2009-04-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2236901
Nada Karaman Aksentijević, Zoran Ježić
In the last 10 to 15 years, a significant shift has occurred in the understanding of the connection between economic growth and development, human resource development, research, innovations and technology. Unambiguous explanations of technological progress or human resource development have been abandoned. It is considered that economic growth and prosperity are founded on a combination of a well-functioning education system and on development level of research capacity which determines the development of innovations and technology. In other words, educated employees, i.e. human resources, become the moving force behind the creation of knowledge, which enables an increasing number of innovations, which lead to technological changes, which significantly expedite economic growth. It is pointed out that former research have shown that the very companies rarely encourage innovations, and that institutional framework in which companies, universities, research institutes and other organisations operate has a key role. The objectives of this paper are the following: 1. To establish whether, and to what extent, the Republic of Croatia lags behind the neighbouring countries in key components of development; 2. To point out the significance of education, educational policy and science and research policy, as well as technology and technological policy in the process of increasing competitiveness and reaching the average development level of the EU countries. The position of the Republic of Croatia in the environment of the European Union regarding human resource development, research capacity, innovations and technology will be determined in this paper by four groups of combined indices. Croatia will especially be compared with countries which become members the European Union after May 1, 2004: Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and Malta. Subjects of analysis are: 1) Human resource development measured by the human development index as a combined index consisting of three indicators: life span and the population's state of health (measured by the expected life span and purchasing power of the population), and the level of education of the population (measured by the adult literacy rate), and by a combined indicator of the share of respective population groups in primary, secondary and tertiary education; 2) Research capacity as a combined index of investments in research and development, investments in tertiary education and the number of scientific publications per million inhabitants; 3) Efficacy of technology and innovations as a combined index of the number of patents, licences and stamps; 4) The ability to absorb knowledge and technology as a ombined index of labour force productivity and the achieved development level. The research will be conducted by the bird's-eye view method.
在过去的10到15年里,对经济增长与发展、人力资源开发、研究、创新和技术之间联系的理解发生了重大转变。对技术进步或人力资源开发的明确解释已被抛弃。人们认为,经济增长和繁荣是建立在良好运作的教育体系和研究能力的发展水平的结合之上的,而研究能力的发展水平决定了创新和技术的发展。换句话说,受过教育的员工,即人力资源,成为知识创造背后的推动力量,这使得越来越多的创新,导致技术变革,这大大加快了经济增长。有人指出,以前的研究表明,公司很少鼓励创新,公司、大学、研究机构和其他组织运作的制度框架起着关键作用。本文的研究目标如下:1、研究目标;确定克罗地亚共和国在发展的关键组成部分是否落后于邻国,以及落后到什么程度;2. 指出教育、教育政策和科研政策以及技术和技术政策在提高竞争力和达到欧盟国家平均发展水平过程中的重要意义。克罗地亚共和国在欧洲联盟环境中关于人力资源开发、研究能力、创新和技术的地位将在本文中由四组综合指数确定。克罗地亚将特别与2004年5月1日后加入欧盟的国家进行比较:塞浦路斯、捷克共和国、爱沙尼亚、拉脱维亚、立陶宛、匈牙利、波兰、斯洛伐克、斯洛文尼亚和马耳他。分析的对象是:1)人力资源开发是由人类发展指数衡量的,该指数是由三个指标组成的综合指数:寿命和人口健康状况(以人口的预期寿命和购买力衡量)、人口的教育水平(以成人识字率衡量),以及各人口群体接受小学、中学和大学教育的比例的综合指标;2)研究能力作为研究与开发投资、高等教育投资和每百万居民科学出版物数量的综合指数;3)技术和创新的有效性,作为专利、许可证和印章数量的综合指标;(4)吸收知识和技术的能力,作为劳动力生产率和已达到的发展水平的综合指标。研究将采用鸟瞰法进行。
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引用次数: 0
Governance and the Turkish Constitutions: Past and Future 治理与土耳其宪法:过去与未来
Pub Date : 2008-04-02 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.1112833
F. Andiç, Mustafa Koçak
After winning the elections for the second time in 2007 the Justice and Development Party (AKP) embarked upon endeavors to revise drastically the Constitution of 1982 and for that purpose commissioned the preparation of a draft of new constitution. The apparent reason was to make it to conform to the EU principles. However, the intent of revising/rewriting the Constitution has led to serious polemics in the Country; the opponents accuse the AKP of undermining secularism that has been one of the guiding principles of the Republic. After briefly reviewing major tenets of the previous constitutions the article analyses the draft from the point of view of good governance and compares it with the currently existing constitution.
在2007年第二次赢得选举后,正义与发展党(AKP)开始努力大幅修改1982年的宪法,并为此目的委托准备新宪法草案。显而易见的原因是为了符合欧盟的原则。但是,修改/重写宪法的意图在该国引起了严重的争论;反对者指责正义与发展党破坏了作为共和国指导原则之一的世俗主义。在简要回顾了历次宪法的主要原则之后,本文从善治的角度对草案进行了分析,并将其与现行宪法进行了比较。
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引用次数: 2
期刊
PSN: Regime Transitions (Topic)
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