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2022 Systems and Information Engineering Design Symposium (SIEDS)最新文献

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Virtual Personal Assistant Design Effects on Memory Encoding 虚拟个人助理设计对记忆编码的影响
Pub Date : 2022-04-28 DOI: 10.1109/sieds55548.2022.9799387
A.F. Chesser, K. Bramlett, A. Atchley, C. Gray, N. Tenhundfeld
Virtual personal assistants (VPAs) like Siri and Alexa have become common objects in households. Users frequently rely on these systems to search the internet or help retrieve information. As such, it is important to know how using these products affect cognitive processes like memory. Previous research suggests that visual speech perception influences auditory perception in human-human interactions. However, many of these VPAs are designed as a box or sphere that does not interact with the user visually. This lack of visual speech perception when interacting with a VPA could affect the human interaction with a system and their retention of information such as determining how many ounces are in a cup or how to greet someone in another language. This poses the question of whether the design of these VPAs is preventing the ability of users to retain the information they get from these systems. To test this, we designed an experiment that will explore interactions between user memory and either a traditional audio presentation (as is found with Siri or Alexa, for example) or one that allows for visual speech perception. Participants were asked to listen to an audio clip of a nonsensical story. In one condition, participants were asked to listen while looking at a blank screen (analogous to the lack of visual feedback inherent when working with current VPA designs). After a block of 25 audio clips, the participants took a test on the information heard. This process was repeated with an animated face with synchronized mouth movements instead of a black screen. Other participants will experience the same two presentations, but in reverse order as to counterbalance condition presentation. Data collection is currently underway. We predicted that VPA paired with synchronized lip movement would promote visual speech perception and thus help participants retain information. While we are still collecting data, the trend currently does not show a significant difference between audio and lip movement conditions. This could be an indication of differing abilities in lipreading.
像Siri和Alexa这样的虚拟个人助理(vpa)已经成为家庭中的常见物品。用户经常依靠这些系统来搜索互联网或帮助检索信息。因此,了解使用这些产品如何影响记忆等认知过程是很重要的。以往的研究表明,在人与人之间的互动中,视觉语言感知会影响听觉感知。然而,许多这些vpa被设计成一个盒子或球体,不与用户进行视觉交互。当与VPA交互时,缺乏视觉语言感知可能会影响人类与系统的交互以及他们对信息的保留,例如确定杯子里有多少盎司或如何用另一种语言问候某人。这就提出了一个问题,即这些vpa的设计是否妨碍了用户保留从这些系统获得的信息的能力。为了测试这一点,我们设计了一个实验,探索用户记忆与传统音频演示(例如Siri或Alexa)或允许视觉语音感知的音频演示之间的交互。参与者被要求听一段荒谬故事的音频片段。在一种情况下,参与者被要求一边听一边看着空白屏幕(类似于使用当前VPA设计时缺乏固有的视觉反馈)。在听了25段音频片段后,参与者对听到的信息进行了测试。重复这一过程的是一张带有同步嘴部动作的动画脸,而不是黑屏。其他参与者将经历同样的两个演示,但顺序相反,以平衡条件演示。目前正在收集数据。我们预测VPA与同步唇运动配对会促进视觉言语感知,从而帮助参与者保留信息。虽然我们仍在收集数据,但目前的趋势并没有显示音频和嘴唇运动条件之间的显着差异。这可能是唇读能力不同的表现。
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引用次数: 0
Hydroponic Crop Cultivation as a Strategy for Reducing Food Insecurity 水培作物种植作为减少粮食不安全的策略
Pub Date : 2022-04-28 DOI: 10.1109/sieds55548.2022.9799344
A. T. Boland, Claire K. DeViney, Jeffrey R. Justice, Estefania D. Pages Arce, Emily C. Wiele, Nathan J. Wiens, G. Louis
Globally, coastal communities and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are most at risk of food insecurity due to a variety of natural and economic factors [1]. Agricultural systems in these areas have a high level of exposure to climate risks including extreme weather and sea level rise [2]. The populations that are most vulnerable to the risk of food insecurity are lower-income, indigenous, rural, ethnic, and religious minority groups, as well as women and children [3]. Hydroponic Crop Cultivation (HCC) is a method of farming in which crops are grown in a nutrient rich solution in order to decrease the amount of resources, time, and space needed to grow. The project seeks to understand the role that HCC can play in mitigating risks to global food security and nutrition (GFSN) through three facets: 1) evaluation of the potential applications for HCC, including: SIDS, refugee camps, food deserts, rooftop gardens and apartment units, 2) ranking HCC against other technologies for GFSN risk mitigation, 3) build and test a floating, storm-resilient HCC system for the special case of GFSN in SIDS. The first two objectives will be ranked by a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method to determine the optimal use case while the last objective will be measured by the construction of a physical prototype. The system will use the Dutch bucket method of HCC to grow larger root crops, as well as enabling the functionality to grow multiple varieties of crops within the same system. The system will float in standing water and be able to withstand a reasonable amount of wind load, to allow the system to survive hurricanes. The HCC system relies on solar photovoltaic power to operate the HCC system, and will be designed to provide up to 72 hours of emergency power for communications and lighting. The functionality of the system will be assessed by testing in a calm water environment as well as simulations of wind loading.
在全球范围内,由于各种自然和经济因素,沿海社区和小岛屿发展中国家(SIDS)面临的粮食不安全风险最大[1]。这些地区的农业系统高度暴露于气候风险,包括极端天气和海平面上升[2]。最容易受到粮食不安全风险影响的人群是低收入、土著、农村、族裔和宗教少数群体,以及妇女和儿童[3]。水培作物栽培(HCC)是一种农业方法,其中作物种植在营养丰富的溶液中,以减少种植所需的资源,时间和空间。该项目旨在通过三个方面了解HCC在减轻全球粮食安全和营养(GFSN)风险方面的作用:1)评估HCC的潜在应用,包括:小岛屿发展中国家、难民营、食物沙漠、屋顶花园和公寓单元;2)将HCC与其他减轻全球粮食安全和营养风险的技术进行比较;3)为小岛屿发展中国家的GFSN特殊情况建立并测试浮动的、抗风暴的HCC系统。前两个目标将通过多标准决策(MCDM)方法进行排序,以确定最佳用例,而最后一个目标将通过物理原型的构建进行测量。该系统将使用HCC的荷兰桶法来种植更大的块根作物,并实现在同一系统内种植多种作物的功能。该系统将漂浮在静水中,能够承受合理的风荷载,使系统能够在飓风中幸存下来。HCC系统依靠太阳能光伏发电来运行HCC系统,并将设计为通信和照明提供长达72小时的应急电源。系统的功能将通过静水环境测试和模拟风荷载来评估。
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引用次数: 2
Short Tandem Repeat Analysis as a Novel Method for Biogeographic Ancestry Prediction 短串联重复序列分析作为生物地理祖先预测的新方法
Pub Date : 2022-04-28 DOI: 10.1109/sieds55548.2022.9799365
Clarissa R. Jolley, Hannah J. Lee, Kristen A. Lucas, William P. McDevitt
Assessing DNA to determine the biogeographic ancestry of an individual continues to be a major task in forensic laboratories across the world. Due to the costly nature associated with full-scale genomic data acquisition and processing, many forensic laboratories lack the ability to conduct comprehensive genetic testing involving analyzing ancestry-informative single nucleotide polymorphisms (aiSNP), therefore, creating the need for more cost effective sources of information. In the present study, we assessed the use of machine learning (ML) approaches in the analysis of short tandem repeats (STRs), non-coding repeats of a short sequence of DNA, in order to determine biogeographic ancestry. STRs are repeat sequences in which a unit of 1-to-25 nucleotides in length exists at various locations across the genome. Because of the high variability of STRs, STRs are widely used for creating unique genetic profiles of different individuals. We analyzed the performance of selected loci in random forest classification models using anonymized STR data, provided by the US Department of Defense (DoD), collected from $mathrm{N}=1747$ subjects across $mathrm{K}=5$ continents in order to predict the continental origins of each individual given their genome. Supervised classification test accuracy of subjects varied from $sim45%$ to $> 60%$ while 10-fold training accuracy varied from 60% to $sim80%$ across the profiles surveyed. Unsupervised clustering test accuracy was reported to be $sim35%$. Our findings indicate that there is a significant possibility in using STR data as a novel method for continental ancestry prediction, and with further research, high accuracy may be reached. We conclude this article with comments on future strategies for parameter optimization to maximize utility of STR analysis which may be beneficial to smaller laboratories as well as expedite biogeographic ancestry for forensic professionals and law enforcement officials.
评估DNA以确定个体的生物地理血统仍然是世界各地法医实验室的主要任务。由于与全面基因组数据采集和处理相关的昂贵性质,许多法医实验室缺乏进行包括分析祖先信息的单核苷酸多态性(aiSNP)在内的全面基因检测的能力,因此,需要更具成本效益的信息来源。在本研究中,我们评估了机器学习(ML)方法在短串联重复序列(STRs)分析中的使用,短序列DNA的非编码重复序列,以确定生物地理祖先。STRs是重复序列,其长度单位为1至25个核苷酸,存在于整个基因组的不同位置。由于STRs的高变异性,STRs被广泛用于创建不同个体的独特遗传图谱。我们使用美国国防部(DoD)提供的匿名STR数据,分析了随机森林分类模型中选定位点的性能,这些数据来自$ mathm {N}=1747$受试者,来自$ mathm {K}=5$大洲,以便预测每个个体在给定其基因组的情况下的大陆起源。受试者的监督分类测试准确率从$sim45%$到$> 60%$不等,而10倍训练准确率从60%到$sim80%$不等。据报道,无监督聚类测试的准确率为$sim35%$。研究结果表明,利用STR数据作为大陆祖先预测的一种新方法具有很大的可能性,并且随着研究的深入,可以达到较高的精度。最后,我们对未来的参数优化策略进行了评论,以最大化STR分析的效用,这可能有利于较小的实验室,并加快法医专业人员和执法官员的生物地理血统。
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引用次数: 0
Data Pipeline for Digitizing Perioperative Flowsheets from Low Middle Income Countries 中低收入国家围手术期流程数字化的数据管道
Pub Date : 2022-04-28 DOI: 10.1109/sieds55548.2022.9799323
Christos Chen, M. Guirguis, D. Klein, Donald Brown, Marcel Durietix, Bhiken L. Naik, Christian Ndaribitse
In Rwanda and many low-and-middle-income countries (LMIC), surgical, critical care, and anesthesia flowsheets are handwritten by medical professionals due to the lack of digital infrastructure necessary to support digitization systems. Therefore, many LMIC lack macro-level health data that can be utilized to quantify and improve existing healthcare outcomes. Literature has championed post operative mortality rate (POMR) as a key indicator for institutional and national surgical safety [1]. Many surgical operations deemed as “low-risk” in high income countries (HIC) have a surgical mortality rate in LMIC more than ten times that of HIC[2]. Striving to lower POMR in LMIC, the University of Virginia (UVA) is partnering with the University Teaching Hospital of Kigali in Rwanda (CHUK) to digitize anesthesia and intraoperative paper health records. Over the past two years, UVA student capstone teams have contributed in establishing a consistent and reliable system to scan and obtain the surgical flowsheets. The focus of 2021–2022 is to design and implement a data pipeline system that enables Rwandan medical professionals at CHUK to digitize paper surgical flowsheets via a mobile application and receive rapid risk-based notifications. The application enables medical professionals to quickly engage with pertinent perioperative data relevant for improving patient outcomes while also ensuring secure storage of the data, which in turn enables macro-level research for Rwanda's healthcare system. The design presented in this paper enables the user to rapidly upload anesthesia records and receive an email notification regarding hypotension risk data in, on average, 37 seconds. Leveraging AWS storage enables 1000 GB per month and demand-based scaling, dwarfing previous storage capabilities. Compared to the previous system, the average upload time decreased 81.7% from 40 seconds to 7.34 seconds with the usage of the newly designed system. In addition, the new system does not lead to an increase in system failures, where the user is unable to proceed with the usage of the application, which remains at 0% in the newly designed version.
在卢旺达和许多低收入和中等收入国家(LMIC),由于缺乏支持数字化系统所需的数字基础设施,外科、重症监护和麻醉流程由医疗专业人员手写。因此,许多低收入和中等收入国家缺乏可用于量化和改善现有医疗保健结果的宏观层面的健康数据。文献支持将术后死亡率(POMR)作为机构和国家手术安全的关键指标[1]。许多在高收入国家(HIC)被视为“低风险”的外科手术,在中低收入国家(LMIC)的手术死亡率是高收入国家(HIC)的十倍以上[2]。为了降低低收入国家的POMR,弗吉尼亚大学(UVA)正在与卢旺达基加利大学教学医院(CHUK)合作,将麻醉和术中纸质健康记录数字化。在过去的两年里,弗吉尼亚大学的学生顶点团队为建立一个一致和可靠的系统来扫描和获取手术流程做出了贡献。2021-2022年的重点是设计和实施一个数据管道系统,使CHUK的卢旺达医疗专业人员能够通过移动应用程序将纸质手术流程数字化,并快速接收基于风险的通知。该应用程序使医疗专业人员能够快速处理与改善患者预后相关的相关围手术期数据,同时确保数据的安全存储,从而为卢旺达的医疗保健系统提供宏观层面的研究。本文提出的设计使用户能够快速上传麻醉记录,并在平均37秒内收到有关低血压风险数据的电子邮件通知。利用AWS存储可以实现每月1000gb的容量和基于需求的扩展,使以前的存储功能相形见绌。与之前的系统相比,使用新系统后,平均上传时间从40秒减少到7.34秒,减少了81.7%。此外,新系统不会导致系统故障的增加,在这种情况下,用户无法继续使用应用程序,在新设计的版本中,这一比例保持在0%。
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引用次数: 0
On the Road to Smart Cities: Preparing U.S. Cities for the Deployment of Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs) 在通往智慧城市的道路上:为部署联网和自动驾驶汽车(cav)做好准备的美国城市
Pub Date : 2022-04-28 DOI: 10.1109/sieds55548.2022.9799341
Yulian Arencibia, Nathaniel Garrido, Charles Kelly, Sasha Omadally, D. Rodriguez, Alexandra Strong, E. Barrella
With today's automotive industry shifting towards Connected and Autonomous Vehicles (CAVs), infrastructure within the urban transportation systems need to be addressed to ensure optimal operations of CAVs in U.S. cities. This project sought to provide technology investment recommendations for new and modified infrastructure to city officials and staff to support U.S. cities as they prepare for the deployment of CAVs. Analysis and recommendations were based on two case studies of major intersections in the cities of Miami, Florida, and Winston-Salem, North Carolina. These case studies showcased different types of roadways and intersection users. Using peer-reviewed research on city infrastructure, policies and regulations, available sensor technologies, and vehicle operations, alternative roadway and IT system specifications were designed with the intention of reducing vehicular accidents, improving traffic flow, improving sensor functionality, and ensuring accessibility to intersection users. Possible design elements included Modified Lanes, Mobility Hubs, Digital Transportation Management System (DTMS), and Improved Lighting System. Prototyping, subject matter expert interviews, and peer-reviewed research were used to determine the validity of the components in the designs. The feedback from the testing phase was analyzed to guide iterations of the analytical prototypes to ensure that the design follows regulations and policies, while also focusing on safety, traffic flow, and accessibility.
随着当今汽车行业转向联网和自动驾驶汽车(cav),城市交通系统中的基础设施需要得到解决,以确保cav在美国城市中的最佳运行。该项目旨在为城市官员和工作人员提供有关新建和改造基础设施的技术投资建议,以支持美国城市为部署自动驾驶汽车做准备。分析和建议是基于对佛罗里达州迈阿密市和北卡罗来纳州温斯顿-塞勒姆市主要十字路口的两个案例研究。这些案例研究展示了不同类型的道路和十字路口用户。通过对城市基础设施、政策法规、可用传感器技术和车辆运行的同行评审研究,设计了替代道路和IT系统规范,旨在减少车辆事故,改善交通流量,提高传感器功能,并确保交叉口用户的可达性。可能的设计元素包括改进车道、交通枢纽、数字交通管理系统(DTMS)和改进的照明系统。原型设计、主题专家访谈和同行评审研究被用来确定设计中组件的有效性。对测试阶段的反馈进行分析,以指导分析原型的迭代,以确保设计遵循法规和策略,同时还关注安全性、交通流量和可访问性。
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引用次数: 0
Context-Aware Recommendation Via Interactive Conversational Agents: A Case in Business Analytics 通过交互式会话代理的上下文感知推荐:商业分析中的一个案例
Pub Date : 2022-04-28 DOI: 10.1109/sieds55548.2022.9799371
Harish Karumuri, Livia Kimche, O. Toker, Afsaneh Doryab
In the era of information overload, the ability to access key information instantaneously is extremely important. While technological advances such as keyword search, dashboards, customizable data reports, and notifications have made information access more flexible, the underlying assumption is that the user knows what to look for. However, this assumption may not hold in many situations. For example, identifying needed information and key metrics affecting a business in Human Resource Management Systems (HRMS) can prove to be difficult. Voice assistance and recommendation systems can help improve these issues by allowing users to efficiently reach key insights which are relevant to their needs and their context. This research presents the design and evaluation of a conversational context-aware information recommendation system for business analytics where a conversational voice assistant helps the user specify the information needed for different analytics by suggesting reports and metrics often used by similar users and companies in their industry. Our prototype evaluation results show the potential of such a system to improve the user experience of searching for efficient and meaningful information in an organization using the data available within their HRMS.
在信息过载的时代,即时获取关键信息的能力是极其重要的。虽然关键字搜索、仪表板、可定制数据报告和通知等技术进步使信息访问更加灵活,但基本的假设是用户知道要查找什么。然而,这种假设在许多情况下可能并不成立。例如,在人力资源管理系统(HRMS)中识别影响业务的所需信息和关键指标可能会被证明是困难的。语音辅助和推荐系统可以帮助用户有效地获得与他们的需求和环境相关的关键见解,从而改善这些问题。本研究提出了用于业务分析的会话上下文感知信息推荐系统的设计和评估,其中会话语音助手通过建议行业中类似用户和公司经常使用的报告和指标,帮助用户指定不同分析所需的信息。我们的原型评估结果显示了这样一个系统的潜力,它可以改善用户使用其人力资源管理系统中的可用数据在组织中搜索有效和有意义的信息的体验。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamic Coal Production Line: Plant Design and Analysis Tool 动态煤炭生产线:工厂设计与分析工具
Pub Date : 2022-04-28 DOI: 10.1109/sieds55548.2022.9799331
Gabriel Bahia De Sousa, Bruna Stamer Janikian, Olivia O'Hearn, Saachi Mehrotra
In efforts to find alternative uses for coal, in line with environmental issues, a new coal production plant was designed and will be built in West Virginia to reconstitute coal into environmentally friendly outputs: (i) absorbents, (ii) fertilizers, and (iii) pellets. The coal will be put through a batch production line containing continuous and non-continuous machines. It needs to operate as efficiently as possible to optimize output and reduce costs. The goal of this project is to create a tool in Microsoft Excel that models the operation of the coal plant and simulates its functionality. The platform assists in the optimization and operation of the coal plant by displaying the three interconnected processes performed within the plant. The final deliverable is a user-friendly tool intended for client use that can assist in the coal plant facility design. The design alternatives were identified by modeling the full plant process for all three products, where rows in Excel are utilized to model the time increments. This dynamic model takes the user-specified facility design factors as inputs and displays the entire process in detailed steps to easily visualize a 2D model of the plant and make decisions based on the information displayed. The model can display how the different design specifications of the coal plant, such as conveyor belt length, would affect the output over time. Furthermore, the tool also informs how the tradeoff between capacity and cook time for the Solar Kiln and the Furnace can influence productivity. Although the scope of this project is one coal plant in West Virginia, the tool developed in this project can be used as a template for the optimization of other similar manufacturing systems.
为了根据环境问题寻找煤炭的替代用途,已设计并将在西弗吉尼亚州建造一座新的煤炭生产工厂,以便将煤炭重新制成环境友好的产品:(一)吸收剂、(二)肥料和(三)颗粒。煤炭将通过一条间歇式生产线,该生产线包含连续和非连续机器。它需要尽可能高效地运行,以优化产量并降低成本。该项目的目标是在Microsoft Excel中创建一个工具,该工具可以模拟燃煤电厂的运行并模拟其功能。该平台通过显示在电厂内执行的三个相互关联的过程来协助煤电厂的优化和运行。最终交付的产品是一个用户友好的工具,供客户使用,可以帮助煤电厂设施设计。通过对所有三种产品的完整工厂流程进行建模来确定设计方案,其中Excel中的行用于对时间增量进行建模。该动态模型以用户指定的设施设计因素为输入,并以详细的步骤显示整个过程,从而轻松地将工厂的二维模型可视化,并根据显示的信息做出决策。该模型可以显示不同设计规格的煤电厂,如输送带长度,如何影响产量随时间的变化。此外,该工具还说明了太阳能窑和熔炉的容量和烹饪时间之间的权衡如何影响生产率。虽然这个项目的范围是在西弗吉尼亚州的一个煤电厂,在这个项目中开发的工具可以作为一个模板,用于优化其他类似的制造系统。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating Mixed Reality and Tablet Technologies in Military Planning 军事规划中混合现实与平板技术的评估
Pub Date : 2022-04-28 DOI: 10.1109/sieds55548.2022.9799294
Betsy Guzmán, Sarah Deresky, Sabrina Taylor, Hawk Wimmer, Ali Momen, Chad C. Tossell, Michael Boyce, Joel Cartwright, Charles R. Amburn, Ben Sawyer
Increasingly advanced technologies are penetrating military domains (e.g., air, land, sea, cyber, space) requiring more complex decision-making to support activities that apply across these domains (multi-domain planning & operations). These decisions often require humans to perceive, comprehend, project, and then communicate information in a timely and accurate manner, oftentimes with life-or-death consequences. To support these decisions, Department of Defense leaders are calling for more effective representations and displays of joint warfighting environments. This project addresses this requirement by examining novel technologies for integrating and displaying complex MDO plans for human decision-making. Using a mission planning scenario, we assessed situation awareness (SA), usability, cost, and overall effectiveness of a two-dimensional (2D) representation of a common joint warfighting display on a Samsung tablet against a three-dimensional (3D) display of the same information designed for use in a Microsoft HoloLens mixed reality system. A total of 22 U.S. Air Force Academy cadets were randomly assigned to either use the tablet or the HoloLens to develop and analyze a mission plan and assessed for situation awareness across two scenarios. Interestingly, the HoloLens did not provide any additional SA relative to the tablet. The tablet was also perceived as more usable and effective in terms of cost and overall performance. These results suggest more traditional technologies, such as a tablet, can provide SA at similar levels as more advanced technology with increased usability and affordability.
越来越多的先进技术正在渗透军事领域(如空中、陆地、海洋、网络、太空),需要更复杂的决策来支持跨这些领域(多领域规划和作战)的活动。这些决策通常需要人类以及时和准确的方式感知、理解、规划和交流信息,通常会带来生死攸关的后果。为了支持这些决定,国防部领导人呼吁更有效地展示和展示联合作战环境。该项目通过研究用于集成和显示用于人类决策的复杂MDO计划的新技术来解决这一需求。使用任务规划场景,我们评估了三星平板电脑上常见联合作战显示器的二维(2D)表示和为微软HoloLens混合现实系统设计的相同信息的三维(3D)显示的态势感知(SA)、可用性、成本和整体有效性。共有22名美国空军学院学员被随机分配使用平板电脑或全息透镜来制定和分析任务计划,并评估两种情况下的态势感知。有趣的是,与平板电脑相比,HoloLens并没有提供任何额外的SA。在成本和整体性能方面,这款平板电脑也被认为更实用、更有效。这些结果表明,更传统的技术,如平板电脑,可以提供与更先进的技术相似的水平的SA,并且具有更高的可用性和可负担性。
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引用次数: 0
Modeling the impact of Weather on Distance Traveled by Lost Persons 模拟天气对失踪者行进距离的影响
Pub Date : 2022-04-28 DOI: 10.1109/sieds55548.2022.9799388
Melanie Sattler, Khoi H. Tran, Haley A. Blair, Bryce Runey
Missing Persons cases are a race against time, where every minute is critical to save a life. The more information a Search and Rescue (SAR) team has to work with, the more likely the success of the search. dbS Productions created a Search and Rescue database with over 20,000 search and rescue cases across the world to assist rescuers in their SAR efforts. The database includes search-specific information such as location, eco-division, and limited weather information. It also includes personal data, including sex, age, clothing, and equipment, as well as various characterizations of the missing person, such as whether they are a hunter, a hiker, or have various medical conditions, such as dementia. All of these factors can be used to determine where a missing person may have headed while they were lost and try to locate them more efficiently. The primary goal of this research is to create a predictive model by augmenting existing spatial models implemented by dbS Productions with additional weather features, determining how weather conditions impact the distance traveled by lost persons, thus improving the efficiency of search and rescue operations. This process was established through regression modeling and other machine learning methods. Several models included in order to determine the effect of weather on the distance traveled, including regression models, models using support vector machines (SVM), and the most successful model using XGBoost. The results showed that there was a relationship between the distance traveled and the maximum temperature and the minimum temperature. Overall showing that the weather extremes have a significant impact on the distance traveled by lost persons.
失踪人口案件是一场与时间的赛跑,每一分钟都是挽救生命的关键。搜救队掌握的信息越多,搜救成功的可能性就越大。dbS Productions建立了一个搜索和救援数据库,其中包含全球超过20,000个搜索和救援案例,以协助救援人员进行搜救工作。该数据库包括搜索特定信息,如位置、生态分区和有限的天气信息。它还包括个人数据,包括性别、年龄、服装和装备,以及失踪者的各种特征,例如他们是猎人、徒步旅行者还是患有各种疾病,例如痴呆症。所有这些因素都可以用来确定失踪者失踪时可能去的地方,并试图更有效地找到他们。本研究的主要目标是通过增加dbS Productions实施的具有额外天气特征的现有空间模型来创建预测模型,确定天气条件如何影响失联人员的行走距离,从而提高搜索和救援行动的效率。这个过程是通过回归建模等机器学习方法建立的。为了确定天气对行进距离的影响,包括几种模型,包括回归模型,使用支持向量机(SVM)的模型,以及最成功的使用XGBoost的模型。实验结果表明,移动距离与最高温度和最低温度之间存在一定的关系。总的来说,极端天气对失踪者所走的距离有重大影响。
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引用次数: 0
Emergency Management and Underserved Communities: Using Big Data to Improve Emergency Management Preparedness, Response and Resilience 应急管理和服务不足社区:利用大数据改善应急管理准备、响应和复原力
Pub Date : 2022-04-28 DOI: 10.1109/sieds55548.2022.9799307
Zachery Key, Andrea Parrish, Conner Snavely, M. Shafiee-Jood
In anticipation of high impact weather events such as hurricanes, wildfires, and flash floods, public officials need to make life saving and time sensitive decisions under uncertainty. For example, when a hurricane is forming in the Atlantic, public officials need to decide whether and when to issue an evacuation order. However, there is always a large risk in issuing an order early because of the uncertain nature of weather forecasting. Besides the preparation costs, the public could lose trust in officials and forecast information. Previous studies have identified a number of sociodemographic factors contributing to individuals’ likelihood to evacuate. These research efforts have proven that the probability of evacuation shares a strong positive correlation with both economic and physical mobility, meaning older populations, low-income populations or those with larger families are less likely to evacuate. While these efforts have provided policy makers with valuable insight to provide for these low evacuation populations, there has been very little analysis of the impact of evacuation orders on constituents’ evacuation mobility patterns. To bridge the gap in literature, we investigate the relationship between evacuation policy and observed evacuation patterns during Hurricane Florence (2018). Specifically, we evaluate the evacuation index at the census block group level of communities in Virginia encountering a false positive compared to those in South Carolina experiencing a true positive. By overlaying evacuation order data with cellular mobility data and forecast information from the National Hurricane Center, we aim to capture interactions between policy measures and socioeconomic factors to assess their relationship with evacuation behavior.
为了应对飓风、野火和山洪等高影响天气事件,政府官员需要在不确定的情况下做出拯救生命和时间敏感的决策。例如,当飓风在大西洋形成时,政府官员需要决定是否以及何时发布疏散令。然而,由于天气预报的不确定性,提前发布命令总是有很大的风险。除了准备成本之外,公众可能会对官员和预报信息失去信任。先前的研究已经确定了一些影响个人撤离可能性的社会人口因素。这些研究工作已经证明,疏散的可能性与经济和身体流动性都有很强的正相关关系,这意味着老年人、低收入人群或大家庭的人不太可能撤离。虽然这些努力为政策制定者提供了宝贵的见解,为这些低疏散人群提供了帮助,但很少有关于疏散令对选民疏散流动模式影响的分析。为了弥补文献上的空白,我们研究了佛罗伦萨飓风(2018)期间疏散政策与观察到的疏散模式之间的关系。具体来说,我们评估了弗吉尼亚州遭遇假阳性的社区的人口普查街区群体水平的疏散指数,与南卡罗来纳州遭遇真阳性的社区相比。通过将疏散命令数据与国家飓风中心的蜂窝移动数据和预测信息叠加,我们的目标是捕捉政策措施和社会经济因素之间的相互作用,以评估它们与疏散行为的关系。
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2022 Systems and Information Engineering Design Symposium (SIEDS)
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