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CyberIR@MIT: Exploration & Innovation in International Relations CyberIR@MIT:国际关系探索与创新
Pub Date : 2021-10-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3936863
N. Choucri, Lauren Fairman, G. Agarwal
This paper presents a brief introduction to Cyber-IR@MIT—a dynamic, interactive knowledge and networking system focused on the evolving, diverse, and complex interconnections of cyberspace and international relations. The goal is to highlight key theoretical, substantive, empirical and networking issues. Cyber-IR@MIT is anchored in a multidimensional ontology. It was initially framed as an experiment during the MIT-Harvard collaboration on Explorations in Cyber International Relations (MIT, 2009-2014) to serve as a forum for quality-controlled content and materials generated throughout the research project. The vision for Cyber-IR@MIT is shaped by the research for Cyberpolitics in International Relations, a book written by Nazli Choucri and published by MIT Press in 2012. The operational approach to the knowledge system is influenced by the Global System for Sustainable Development (GSSD), developed earlier and focused on challenges of system sustainability. Cyber-IR@MIT gradually evolved into a knowledge-based system of human interactions in cyberspace and international relations, all embedded in the overarching natural system. The method consists of differentiating among the various facets of human activity in (i) cyberspace, (ii) international relations, and (iii) the intersection of the cyber and “real.” It includes problems created by humans and solution strategies, as well as enabling functions and capabilities, on the one hand, and impediments to behavior and associated barriers, on the other. See https://cyberir.mit.edu for functions. The value of this initiative lies in its conceptual foundations and method of knowledge representation – embedded in an interactive system for knowledge submission, with f search and retrieval functions.
本文简要介绍了Cyber-IR@MIT——一个动态的、互动的知识和网络系统,专注于网络空间与国际关系之间不断发展的、多样的、复杂的相互联系。目标是突出关键的理论,实质性,实证和网络问题。Cyber-IR@MIT锚定在一个多维本体中。它最初是作为麻省理工学院-哈佛大学在网络国际关系探索合作期间的一个实验(麻省理工学院,2009-2014),作为一个论坛,用于在整个研究项目中产生的质量控制内容和材料。Cyber-IR@MIT的愿景是由纳兹利·乔克里(Nazli Choucri)撰写并于2012年由麻省理工学院出版社出版的《国际关系中的网络政治》(Cyberpolitics in International Relations)一书的研究形成的。知识系统的业务方法受到全球可持续发展系统(GSSD)的影响,该系统较早开发,侧重于系统可持续性的挑战。Cyber-IR@MIT逐渐发展成为一个以知识为基础的网络空间和国际关系的人类互动系统,所有这些都嵌入到总体自然系统中。该方法包括区分人类活动的各个方面(i)网络空间,(ii)国际关系,以及(iii)网络与“现实”的交集。它一方面包括由人类和解决方案策略产生的问题,以及启用的功能和能力,另一方面包括对行为的障碍和相关的障碍。有关函数,请参阅https://cyberir.mit.edu。这一倡议的价值在于其概念基础和知识表示方法——嵌入到一个交互式的知识提交系统中,并具有搜索和检索功能。
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引用次数: 0
Rank Deficiency? Analyzing the Costs and Benefits of Single-Winner Ranked-Choice Voting 等级不足?单赢家排序选择投票的成本和收益分析
Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3703197
J. Clark
In the past decade, debate around the effects of the instant runoff voting (IRV) has intensified, as proponents seek to build upon a victory in Maine to expand its use to more states. However, there has relied on unsubstantiated claims from both sides, as it has only been used in a single statewide election. This lack of information around IRV is compounded by the fact that relatively little work has been done around the behavioral impacts of IRV in a multi- party setting, with most of the elections happening in cities that lean strongly Democrat. This study seeks to better understand this reform by being the first to holistically analyze both the micro-level and macro-level impacts of IRV. In doing so, I find strong experimental and observational evidence to suggest that the negative impacts of IRV outweigh any positive effects, and that elite-led opinion may serve as a mitigating factor.
在过去的十年里,围绕即时决选(IRV)的影响的辩论愈演愈烈,因为支持者寻求在缅因州取得胜利的基础上,将其推广到更多的州。然而,双方的说法都是未经证实的,因为它只在一次全州选举中使用过。由于大多数选举都发生在强烈倾向民主党的城市,围绕IRV在多党环境下的行为影响所做的研究相对较少,这加剧了对IRV信息的缺乏。本研究首次从微观层面和宏观层面对IRV的影响进行了整体分析,旨在更好地理解这一改革。在这样做的过程中,我发现了强有力的实验和观察证据,表明IRV的负面影响超过了任何积极影响,精英主导的意见可能是一个缓解因素。
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引用次数: 5
The American Dream and Support for the Social Safety Net: Evidence from Experiment and Survey Data 美国梦和对社会安全网的支持:来自实验和调查数据的证据
Pub Date : 2018-05-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3173814
Wei-Kang Wong
I propose the status quo bias hypothesis, which predicts that housing wealth increases preference for status quo arrangements with respect to Social Security. I contrast the status quo bias hypothesis with the claim that housing wealth reduces support for social insurance, and test the hypothesis in two empirical studies. A survey experiment finds that homeowners informed about high historical home price appreciation (HPA) are about 8 percentage points more likely to prefer existing Social Security arrangements to privatized retirement accounts, compared to those informed about low historical HPA. Observational data from the 2000-2004 ANES panel show that homeowners who experience higher HPA are about 11 percentage points more likely to prefer status quo levels of spending on Social Security than those in the bottom HPA quartile. No significant HPA effects are observed among renters, and for other domains of social insurance among homeowners. The evidence suggests that housing wealth's conservatizing effect should be interpreted as a status quo preference, rather than opposition to redistributive social policies.
我提出了现状偏见假说,该假说预测,相对于社会保障,住房财富增加了对现状安排的偏好。我将现状偏见假设与住房财富减少对社会保险支持的说法进行了对比,并在两项实证研究中检验了这一假设。一项调查实验发现,与那些被告知历史房价升值(HPA)较低的房主相比,被告知历史房价升值(HPA)较高的房主更倾向于现有的社会保障安排,而不是私有化的退休账户,这一比例约为8个百分点。来自2000-2004年ANES小组的观察数据显示,经历较高HPA的房主比那些HPA最低的四分之一的房主更有可能倾向于维持现状的社会保障支出水平。在租房者和其他社会保险领域的房主中,没有观察到显著的HPA效应。有证据表明,住房财富的保守效应应被解释为对现状的偏好,而不是对再分配社会政策的反对。
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引用次数: 0
Why is New Hampshire More Competitive than Pennsylvania? Historical Electoral Competitiveness and Swing State Selection 为什么新罕布什尔州比宾夕法尼亚州更具竞争力?历史选举竞争与摇摆州的选择
Pub Date : 2018-04-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3168687
Zachary Markovich, Dean Lacy
The electoral competitiveness of a geographic area, such as a US state, is usually measured as the deviation of the ex post election outcome from a tie, which assumes campaigns have perfect foresight expectations about the outcome, ignores prior election results, and does not account for over-time variation within a state. This paper introduces a measure of historical estimated electoral competitiveness that incorporates past election results and over-time volatility. The measure explains presidential campaigns’ advertising spending in 2008 and 2012 better than other frequently-used measures. Results from elections four decades past exert a significant effect on campaign expenditures in the 2008 and 2012 elections. The 1976 election appears particularly influential in recent campaign spending patterns. Historical estimated competitiveness shows that Romney’s campaign overspent in New Hampshire and Wisconsin in 2012, and both campaigns underspent in Ohio in 2008 and 2012.
一个地理区域(如美国的一个州)的选举竞争力通常以选举后的结果与平局的偏差来衡量,这假设竞选团队对结果有完美的预见预期,忽略了之前的选举结果,并且不考虑各州内部的长期变化。本文介绍了一种历史估计选举竞争力的度量,该度量包含了过去的选举结果和随时间的波动。该指标比其他常用指标更能解释2008年和2012年总统竞选的广告支出。40年前的选举结果对2008年和2012年选举的竞选支出产生了重大影响。1976年的选举似乎对最近的竞选支出模式产生了特别大的影响。历史上估计的竞争力显示,罗姆尼2012年在新罕布什尔州和威斯康星州的竞选经费超支,2008年和2012年在俄亥俄州的竞选经费不足。
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引用次数: 0
Inside Source: The Causes and Consequences of Intelligence Infiltration in Civil Wars 内部来源:内战中情报渗透的原因和后果
Pub Date : 2018-03-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3161697
Cullen G. Nutt
What explains intelligence success in civil wars? Specifically, when and why do states succeed in cultivating intelligence sources within the adversary side? Such sources provide precious insight into the enemy’s thinking. I find that the dominant framework for information provision in civil war, in which controlling territory yields information, is inapplicable to intelligence infiltration of armed groups. I develop a theory that instead points to the necessity of expertise in identifying disgruntled insurgents, as well as trust on the part of prospective agents that counterinsurgents can maintain secrecy. I draw on ample documentation of U.S. and South Vietnamese intelligence efforts during three periods in the Vietnam War to probe the plausibility of these explanations. I find substantial support for my explanation. I also offer an account of the causes and consequences of the most spectacular intelligence penetration of the war for the United States. A single mid-level Viet Cong cadre spying for the CIA influenced U.S. knowledge of Communist intentions and capabilities from his formal recruitment in 1969 until the end of the war and the agent’s death in captivity in April 1975. I discuss the applicability of these findings to other civil war contexts, including contemporary U.S. interventions.
如何解释内战中情报工作的成功?具体来说,国家在何时以及为何会成功地在对手内部培养情报来源?这样的消息来源为了解敌人的想法提供了宝贵的信息。我发现,在内战中提供信息的主要框架,即控制领土产生信息,不适用于武装团体的情报渗透。我发展了一种理论,指出了识别心怀不满的叛乱分子的专业知识的必要性,以及对潜在特工的信任,即反叛乱分子可以保守秘密。我利用了越南战争三个时期美国和南越情报工作的大量文件来探究这些解释的合理性。我发现有充分的证据支持我的解释。我还提供了对美国最引人注目的战争情报渗透的原因和后果的描述。一名为中央情报局从事间谍活动的越共中层干部,从1969年被正式招募到战争结束,直到1975年4月在囚禁中死亡,影响了美国对共产党意图和能力的了解。我讨论了这些发现在其他内战背景下的适用性,包括当代美国的干预。
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引用次数: 0
Attitudes Toward Internal and Foreign Migration: Evidence from a Survey Experiment in China 对国内外移民的态度:来自中国调查实验的证据
Pub Date : 2017-10-17 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3055221
Davida Singer, Kai Quek
We explore attitudes toward internal and foreign migration in China using an original survey experiment. If labor market competition drives attitudes, then residents will be opposed to migrants with comparable skill levels, regardless of migrant origin. If residents fear a dilution of their national identity, then they will be more opposed to foreign migration than internal migration. We test these arguments by randomly assigning respondents to answer questions about migrants with different skills levels and from either foreign countries or other provinces in China. We find that attitudes cleave universally over skill level, but the foreign-internal dimension is, on its own, not a salient cleavage in preferences. However, when considering high-skilled migrants, respondents are more supportive of foreign than internal migration; when considering low-skilled migrants, they are more opposed to foreign than internal migration. The results cast further doubt on material explanations for attitudes toward migration and suggest a reevaluation of cultural threat arguments that privilege nationality and national borders.
我们通过一个原始的调查实验来探讨中国人对国内和国外移民的态度。如果劳动力市场竞争驱动了态度,那么无论移民的来源地如何,居民都将反对技能水平相当的移民。如果居民担心他们的民族认同被淡化,那么他们会更反对外国移民而不是国内移民。我们通过随机分配受访者来回答有关来自外国或中国其他省份的不同技能水平的移民的问题来验证这些论点。我们发现,态度在技能水平上普遍存在分歧,但内外维度本身并不是偏好的显著分歧。然而,在考虑高技能移民时,受访者更支持外国移民而不是国内移民;在考虑低技能移民时,他们更反对外国移民而不是国内移民。研究结果进一步质疑了对移民态度的物质解释,并建议重新评估文化威胁的论点,即特权国籍和国界。
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引用次数: 4
The Ideological Nationalization of Mass Partisanship: Policy Preferences and Partisan Identification in State Publics, 1946–2014 大众党派的意识形态民族化:国家公众的政策偏好和党派认同,1946-2014
Pub Date : 2016-08-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2853674
Devin Caughey, James W. Dunham, C. Warshaw
Since the mid-20th century, elite political behavior has increasingly nationalized. In Congress, for example, within-party geographic cleavages have declined, roll-call voting has become increasingly one-dimensional, and Democrats and Republicans have diverged along this main dimension of national partisan conflict. The existing literature finds that citizens have displayed only a delayed and attenuated echo of elite trends. We show, however, that a very different picture emerges if we focus not on individual citizens but on the aggregate characteristics of geographic constituencies. Using estimates of the economic, racial, and social policy liberalism of the average Democrat, Independent, and Republican in each state-year 1946–2014, we demonstrate a surprisingly close correspondence between mass and elite trends. Specifically, we find that: (1) ideological divergence between Democrats and Republicans has increased dramatically within each domain, just as it has in Congress; (2) economic, racial, and social liberalism have become highly correlated across state-party publics, just as they have across members of Congress; (3) ideological variation across state-party publics is now almost completely explained by party rather than state, closely tracking trends in the Senate; and (4) senators’ liberalism is strongly predicted by the liberalism of their state-party subconstituency, even controlling for their party affiliation and their state public’s overall liberalism. Taken together, this correspondence between elite and mass patterns suggests that members of Congress are actually quite in synch with their constituencies, if not with individual citizens.
自20世纪中期以来,精英政治行为日益国家化。例如,在国会,党内的地域分歧已经缩小,唱名表决变得越来越单一,民主党和共和党在国家党派冲突的这个主要方面出现了分歧。现有文献发现,公民只是对精英趋势的一种延迟和减弱的回应。然而,我们表明,如果我们不关注个别公民,而是关注地理选区的总体特征,就会出现非常不同的情况。通过对1946-2014年每个州民主党人、独立党人和共和党人的平均经济、种族和社会政策自由主义的估计,我们展示了大众和精英趋势之间惊人的密切对应。具体来说,我们发现:(1)民主党和共和党之间的意识形态分歧在每个领域都急剧增加,就像在国会一样;(2)经济、种族和社会自由主义在各州政党的公众中变得高度相关,就像在国会议员中一样;(3)各州政党公众的意识形态差异现在几乎完全由政党而不是州来解释,密切跟踪参议院的趋势;(4)参议员的自由主义被其州-党选区的自由主义强烈地预测,甚至控制了他们的党派归属和州公众的整体自由主义。综上所述,精英和大众模式之间的这种对应关系表明,国会议员实际上与他们的选区(如果不是与公民个人)相当一致。
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引用次数: 1
Political Participation and the 'Feeling of Doing': The Causes and Consequences of Perceptions of Political Control 政治参与和“做的感觉”:政治控制感知的原因和后果
Pub Date : 2015-03-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2603390
J. Montgomery, Nicolas K. Dumas, Michelle Torres
Perceptions of political control (POPC) is a set of subjective beliefs about the effectiveness of specific actions in achieving desired political outcomes and how capable individuals feel in executing these strategies. We argue that participation in the political system, especially successful participation, fosters these control beliefs. POPC in turn affects how people understand their role in the political world and their reasoning in making political decisions. Using data from a two-wave national survey and a novel experiment, we show that the POPC is distinct from and superior to traditional measures of political efficacy and trust due to its stronger theoretical foundations. Further, as our theory suggests, we show that POPC increases with successful political participation and that individuals with higher POPC are more likely to attribute political outcomes to their personal actions and to ignore information implying that the effectiveness of their actions is conditioned by the political environment.
政治控制感知(POPC)是一组主观信念,关于实现预期政治结果的具体行动的有效性,以及个人在执行这些策略时的能力。我们认为,参与政治体系,尤其是成功的参与,培养了这些控制信念。POPC反过来影响人们如何理解他们在政治世界中的角色以及他们在做出政治决策时的推理。利用两波全国调查的数据和一项新颖的实验,我们表明,由于其更强大的理论基础,POPC与传统的政治效率和信任指标不同,并且优于传统的政治效率和信任指标。此外,正如我们的理论所表明的,我们表明POPC随着政治参与的成功而增加,并且具有较高POPC的个人更有可能将政治结果归因于他们的个人行为,而忽略暗示其行动有效性受政治环境制约的信息。
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引用次数: 1
Co-Evolution of Cyberspace and International Relations: New Challenges for the Social Sciences 网络空间与国际关系的共同演化:社会科学的新挑战
Pub Date : 2014-10-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2514532
N. Choucri
This paper argues that the construction of cyberspace is creating new challenges for the social sciences, the full nature of which still remains to be fully understood -- perhaps even calling into question some of its most basic assumptions. We frame these challenges with reference to co-evolution of the new cyber domain and the traditional international system, and then focus more specifically on the emergent synergy between two independent features of the contemporary world order -- cyberspace (an arena of interaction) and sustainability (a policy imperative), and their convergence on the global policy agenda. It is no surprise that sustainability is closely connected to security -- or alternatively that security is contingent on sustainability. By extension, cybersecurity is derivative, in that it refers to security in the cyber domain.
本文认为,网络空间的建设正在给社会科学带来新的挑战,其全部性质仍有待充分理解——甚至可能对其一些最基本的假设提出质疑。我们将这些挑战与新的网络领域和传统国际体系的共同演变联系起来,然后更具体地关注当代世界秩序的两个独立特征——网络空间(互动的舞台)和可持续性(政策要求)之间的新兴协同作用,以及它们在全球政策议程上的趋同。毫无疑问,可持续性与安全密切相关——或者说,安全取决于可持续性。推而广之,网络安全是派生的,因为它指的是网络领域的安全。
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引用次数: 4
Strategy for International Cooperation in Planning the Chinese Space Station 中国空间站规划国际合作战略
Pub Date : 2014-04-16 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2425862
J. Foley
The ultimate challenges facing the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) are how to domestically maintain the power of the state while increasing individual liberties; and facilitating its international rise while avoiding direct confrontation as it is expanding global influence. Within the past decade, China has experienced a steady progression of technology resulting in prestigious accomplishments for the manned space program. To reassure the world of its benign rise China is seeking collaboration in the exploration and utilization of outer space. This paper provides a critical examination of the technology and politics of the Chinese Space Station (CSS) endeavor and investigates areas of conflict that could potentially affect China, such as spheres of influence, status and prestige, resource competition, and fundamental disagreements over the international system. I argue that only if it can be effectively managed as a platform for international cooperation and global leadership CSS can achieve subsidiary benefits for the Chinese government in domestic and foreign policy. In building a prosperous socialist society China must use science, technology, education, and culture as means for achieving political ends. However, inviting international partners in the process of constructing and operating a space station presents an expansively demanding policy problem. China must determine if there are tangible benefits associated with different scales and scopes of space station cooperation. The key policy problem is finding a model that is effective for fair and rational cooperation based on mutual benefit, transparency, reciprocity, and cost sharing, while striking a balance with partners over ownership, intellectual property, and utilization rights. Through first hand professional and cultural experience in China and translations of various Chinese academic journals I construct an analytical assessment of PRC space activities and recommend effective strategies to support scientific and technological innovation for intentional cooperation on CSS.
中华人民共和国(PRC)和中国共产党(CCP)面临的终极挑战是如何在国内维持国家权力的同时增加个人自由;促进其在国际上的崛起,同时在扩大全球影响力的过程中避免直接对抗。在过去的十年里,中国经历了技术的稳步发展,在载人航天计划方面取得了举世瞩目的成就。为了让世界相信中国的良性崛起,中国正在寻求在探索和利用外层空间方面的合作。本文对中国空间站(CSS)努力的技术和政治进行了批判性审查,并调查了可能影响中国的冲突领域,如势力范围、地位和声望、资源竞争以及对国际体系的根本分歧。我认为,只有将其作为国际合作和全球领导的平台进行有效管理,CSS才能为中国政府的内外政策带来附带利益。建设社会主义社会,必须把科技、教育、文化作为实现政治目的的手段。然而,在建造和操作空间站的过程中邀请国际伙伴提出了一个要求广泛的政策问题。中国必须确定不同规模和范围的空间站合作是否会带来切实的利益。关键的政策问题是在互利、透明、互惠、成本分担的基础上,找到一种有效的公平合理的合作模式,同时在所有权、知识产权和使用权方面与合作伙伴取得平衡。通过在中国的第一手专业和文化经验以及各种中国学术期刊的翻译,我构建了中国空间活动的分析评估,并建议有效的战略来支持科学和技术创新,以促进CSS的有意合作。
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引用次数: 0
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