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Some Issues of Ensuring Completeness and Reliability of Operational Data Obtained in the Course of Instrument Inspection of Steel Underground Gas Pipelines 确保地下钢质天然气管道仪器检测过程中获得的运行数据的完整性和可靠性的若干问题
Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.21122/2227-1031-2024-23-1-58-66
N. Strutsky, V. Romaniuk
In the long term, along with the growth of nuclear power and related changes in the fuel and energy balance of the country, natural gas will retain an important place in the national economy, including in the production of heat and electricity Accordingly, the importance of gas distribution networks, which directly supply fuel to the Republic's consumers, will remain for a long time. According with the Concept of the National Strategy for Sustainable Development of the Republic of Belarus for the period until 2035, the main task in the gas sector is to maintain production assets at a level ensuring safe energy supply. Practice shows that corrosion factor has the greatest potential to influence the technical condition of steel underground distribution gas pipelines. To compensate for corrosion processes, steel underground pipelines are equipped with special protective means, in particular, insulation coatings. One of the key operational characteristics of  insulation is its integrity, which is controlled through periodic (comprehensive) instrumental technical inspection. Based on the inspection results, statistics of  identified defects of protective coatings is formed. The work examines the issues of ensuring the reliability of operational data, and highlights the experience of implementing specialized software packages in gas supply organizations of the Beltopgaz State Production Association for recording and processing the results of instrument surveys of gas distribution pipelines. The issue of the influence of organizational and production aspect (features of technology, local practice of planning and performing specific types of work on technical operation) on the structure of operational data, which requires separate study and accounting for their further statistical processing and use, has been considered in the paper.
从长远来看,随着核能的发展以及国家燃料和能源平衡的相关变化,天然气在国民经济中仍将保 持重要地位,包括在热能和电力生产方面。根据《白俄罗斯共和国 2035 年前可持续发展国家战略构想》,天然气行业的主要任务是将生产资产 保持在确保安全能源供应的水平上。实践证明,腐蚀因素最有可能影响钢制地下输气管道的技术状况。为了补偿腐蚀过程,钢制地下输气管道都配备了特殊的保护措施,特别是绝缘涂层。隔热层的主要运行特性之一是其完整性,通过定期(全面)的仪器技术检查对其进行控制。根据检查结果,对发现的保护层缺陷进行统计。这项工作研究了确保运行数据可靠性的问题,并重点介绍了 Beltopgaz 国家生产协会天然气供应组织实施专门软件包记录和处理输气管道仪器检测结果的经验。文件还考虑了组织和生产方面(技术特点、当地规划和执行技术操作特定类型工作的做法)对业务数据结构的影响问题,这需要对其进一步统计处理和使用进行单独研究和核算。
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引用次数: 0
Methodology for Calculating Additional Dynamic Settlements of the Bases of Slab Foundations of Buildings and Structures from Vibrations Propagating in the Soil Environment 计算土壤环境中传播的振动对建筑物和结构的楼板基础造成的额外动态沉降的方法
Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.21122/2227-1031-2024-23-1-46-57
K. Povkolas
The paper provides a method for calculating additional settlements of slab foundations of existing buildings and structures from vibration-dynamic influences that arise during various construction works near them (driving piles, vibra- tory driving of sheet piling beams, soil compaction with heavy rammers and vibrating hammers), as well as from industrial equipment and transport. The technique includes the following main steps. Using the finite element method, or measured existing vibration fields, the distribution of the maximum accelerations of ground vibrations under the base of the foundation along the depth is determined and the zone in which they exceed the critical accelerations at which volumetric and shear deformations of the soil begin to appear is identified. The soil at the base of the foundation is divided into elementary layers with a thickness of no more than 1/4 of the width of the foundation. Further, according to the known vibration-compression depen-dencies (the dependence of the change in the porosity coefficient e of soil samples on the acceleration of their vibrations a), which are obtained in laboratory conditions, the settlements of each layer are determined, the summation of which gives the total value of the additional dynamic settlement Sд. If it, together with the static settlement Sст, exceeds the maximum normalized settlement values, it is proposed to use three methods to reduce or eliminate Sд – drilling injection strengthening of the zone of development of additional settlements, the use of a horizontal inertial plate or a vertical barrier made of easily compressible materials in the path of vibration propagation, the use of which reduces the intensity of vibration-dynamic impacts transmitted to the foundations under consideration.
本文提供了一种方法,用于计算现有建筑物和结构的楼板地基在其附近的各种建筑工程(打桩、振动打板桩梁、用重型夯实机和振动锤夯实土壤)以及工业设备和运输过程中产生的振动动力影响。该技术包括以下主要步骤。使用有限元方法或测量现有振动场,确定地基底部地面振动的最大加速度沿深度的分布,并确定其超过临界加速度的区域,在该区域土壤开始出现体积和剪切变形。地基底部的土壤被分成厚度不超过地基宽度 1/4 的基本层。此外,根据在实验室条件下获得的已知振动-压缩依赖性(土样孔隙度系数 e 的变化对其振动加速度 a 的依赖性),确定每层的沉降量,将其相加得出附加动态沉降 Sд 的总值。如果它与静态沉降 Sд一起超过了最大归一化沉降值,则建议使用三种方法来减少或消除 Sд--在额外沉降发展区进行钻孔注浆加固,在振动传播路径上使用水平惯性板或由易压缩材料制成的垂直屏障,使用这些方法可以减少传递到地基上的振动动力冲击强度。
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引用次数: 0
Forecasting the Risk of Bankruptcy in Poorly Formalized Processes 预测不正规流程中的破产风险
Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.21122/2227-1031-2024-23-1-80-86
Z. T. Gaibnazarova, B. T. Solieva, N. A. Iminova
There is a class of complex systems characterized by dynamism, multi-link structural elements, multi-stage, multi-linked chain of processes. Moreover, each of these processes occurs under conditions of stochastic and non-stochastic uncertainty in the initial information, internal and external environment, which predetermine the uncertainty of the nature of the development of the situation. Decision-making problems in such systems are divided into two types: 1) decision-making problems under risk conditions, when uncertainty conditions are only probabilistic, stochastic in nature; 2) decision-making problems under conditions of uncertainty, when the accompanying conditions are of a non-stochastic nature, and also when the necessary reliable statistical data is unknown. In tasks of the second type, risks are manifested to a greater extent than in the first. At the same time, risk should be considered – as an object, event, phenomenon – as a formal mathematical category in accordance with its following information interpretation: risk is information uncertainty, fuzziness of the “object – subject – environment” system and its individual elements. The measure of this uncertainty determines the measure of danger, possible damage, loss from the implementation of some decision or event. The existence of risk is associated with the inability to predict the future with 100 % accuracy. Based on this, the main property of risk should be singled out: risk occurs only in relation to the future and is inextricably linked with forecasting, and therefore with decision-making in general (the word “risk” literally means “making a decision”, the result of which is unknown). Following the above, it is also worth noting that the categories “risk” and “uncertainty” are closely related and are often used as synonyms. In conditions when the initial factors are given in the form of fuzzy characteristics, other approaches based on the intelligent technologies of Soft Computing are widely used for forecasting. When evaluating alternative decision-making options for risk assessment under uncertainty, the problem of developing fuzzy models based on fuzzy inference rules arises. But there is no universal method for constructing fuzzy evaluation models. The advantage of fuzzy logic lies in the possibility of using expert knowledge about a given object in the form of if “inputs”, then “outputs”. In the paper a bankruptcy risk model is developed in poorly formalized processes for the purpose of forecasting.
有一类复杂系统的特点是动态性、多环节结构要素、多阶段、多环节过程链。此外,这些过程中的每一个过程都是在初始信息、内部和外部环境的随机和非随机不确定性条件下发生的,这些条件预先决定了形势发展性质的不确定性。这类系统中的决策问题分为两类:1) 风险条件下的决策问题,即不确定性条件只是概率性的、随机性的;2) 不确定性条件下的决策问题,即伴随的条件是非随机性的,而且必要的可靠统计数据也是未知的。在第二类任务中,风险比第一类任务表现得更为明显。与此同时,风险作为一种对象、事件、现象,应被视为一种形式化的数学范畴,其信息解释如下:风险是信息的不确定性,是 "对象-主体-环境 "系统及其各个要素的模糊性。这种不确定性的度量决定了执行某些决定或事件所带来的危险、可能的损害、损失的度量。风险的存在与无法百分之百准确地预测未来有关。在此基础上,风险的主要特性应予以突出:风险只发生在与未来有关的情况下,与预测密不可分,因此也与一般决策密不可分("风险 "一词的字面意思是 "做出决定",其结果是未知的)。综上所述,还值得注意的是,"风险 "和 "不确定性 "这两个词密切相关,经常被用作同义词。在初始因素以模糊特征形式给出的条件下,基于软计算智能技术的其他方法被广泛用于预测。在对不确定情况下的风险评估备选决策方案进行评估时,会出现基于模糊推理规则建立模糊模型的问题。但目前还没有构建模糊评估模型的通用方法。模糊逻辑的优势在于可以使用专家对给定对象的知识,即如果 "输入",则 "输出"。本文以预测为目的,在形式化程度较低的过程中建立了一个破产风险模型。
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引用次数: 0
Determination of Maximum Calculated Total Values of Wind Loads on the Elements of Anti-Theft Device from Eccentric and Wedge Mechanism 确定偏心和楔形机构对防盗装置部件的风荷载最大计算总值
Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.21122/2227-1031-2024-23-1-33-45
S. M. Selivonchik, N. L. Nesterenko
To carry out a power calculation of the anti-driveaway device (from now on referred to as – AD) of lifting cranes operating in the open air, it is necessary to know the maximum calculated value of the wind force on the elements of the AD rails connected by side bars. The various types of anti-theft crane devices recommended for use have a number of disadvantages, which have been written about in previous papers. Anti-theft crane devices are also known, in which the stop of lifting cranes on the rail track is carried out by a locking eccentric interacting with the surface of the rail head. The reliabi-lity of such devices is insufficient, since due to the constant force of the spring, the adhesion force of the eccentric to the rail does not depend on the changing wind force. To carry out a power calculation of the anti-theft device for cranes operating in the open air, it is necessary to know the maximum calculated value of the wind force acting on its elements that hold the cranes on the rails when the cranes are inoperative. When a crane moves along rails under the influence of wind force Pw, the eccentric, turning, transmits the pressure force from the rail to the double-arm lever connecting the eccentric mechanism to the wedge mechanism. The eccentric mechanism is essentially a drive for the vertical movement of the wedge, as a result of which the pincer clamp closes on the rail head and the crane stops. Thus, the energy developed by the crane, driven by the force Pw, is used to stop it. For this purpose, the paper deals with the issues of determining the maximum design values of the wind force acting on the total lateral surfaces of various types of cranes under different climatic, aerodynamic, probabilistic and other wind loads. A methodology is given for determining the maximum calculated total values of wind loads on the elements of the developed anti-theft device for lifting cranes moving along crane rail tracks. The calculated total lateral areas and wind loads on bridge support single- and double-girder cranes, gantry and tower cranes for various designs, spans, load capacities and other parameters have been determined. Based on the calculations performed, it is possible to create a model range of anti-theft devices for various designs of load-lifting cranes moving on crane rails under various operating conditions.
要对露天运行的起重设备的防脱装置(以下简称 AD)进行功率计算,必须知道通过侧杆连接的 AD 导轨元件上风力的最大计算值。推荐使用的各种类型的起重机防盗装置都有一些缺点,这在以前的文章中已有介绍。防盗起重机装置也是已知的,在这种装置中,起重起重机在轨道上的停止是通过与轨头表面相互作用的锁定偏心实现的。这种装置的可靠性不足,因为由于弹簧的恒定力,偏心与轨道的附着力并不取决于风力的变化。要对露天运行的起重机防盗装置进行功率计算,就必须知道当起重机不工作时,作用在将起重机固定在轨道上的元件上的风力的最大计算值。当起重机在风力 Pw 的作用下沿轨道移动时,偏心转动,将轨道上的压力传递给连接偏心机构和楔块机构的双臂杠杆。偏心机构实质上是楔块垂直运动的驱动装置,楔块垂直运动的结果是夹钳夹紧轨头,起重机停止。因此,起重机在力 Pw 的驱动下产生的能量被用来使其停止。为此,本文讨论了在不同气候、空气动力、概率和其他风荷载条件下,确定作用在各类起重机总侧向表面上的风力最大设计值的问题。文中给出了一种方法,用于确定所开发的沿起重机轨道移动的起重防盗装置各部件上风荷载的最大计算总值。确定了各种设计、跨度、载荷能力和其他参数下桥支座单梁和双梁起重机、龙门起重机和塔式起重机的总横向面积和风载荷计算值。根据所进行的计算,可以为各种设计的在起重机轨道上移动的起重起重机在各种运行条件下创建一系列防盗装置模型。
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引用次数: 0
Determination of Maximum Calculated Total Values of Wind Loads on the Elements of Anti-Theft Device from Eccentric and Wedge Mechanism 确定偏心和楔形机构对防盗装置部件的风荷载最大计算总值
Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.21122/2227-1031-2024-23-1-33-45
S. M. Selivonchik, N. L. Nesterenko
To carry out a power calculation of the anti-driveaway device (from now on referred to as – AD) of lifting cranes operating in the open air, it is necessary to know the maximum calculated value of the wind force on the elements of the AD rails connected by side bars. The various types of anti-theft crane devices recommended for use have a number of disadvantages, which have been written about in previous papers. Anti-theft crane devices are also known, in which the stop of lifting cranes on the rail track is carried out by a locking eccentric interacting with the surface of the rail head. The reliabi-lity of such devices is insufficient, since due to the constant force of the spring, the adhesion force of the eccentric to the rail does not depend on the changing wind force. To carry out a power calculation of the anti-theft device for cranes operating in the open air, it is necessary to know the maximum calculated value of the wind force acting on its elements that hold the cranes on the rails when the cranes are inoperative. When a crane moves along rails under the influence of wind force Pw, the eccentric, turning, transmits the pressure force from the rail to the double-arm lever connecting the eccentric mechanism to the wedge mechanism. The eccentric mechanism is essentially a drive for the vertical movement of the wedge, as a result of which the pincer clamp closes on the rail head and the crane stops. Thus, the energy developed by the crane, driven by the force Pw, is used to stop it. For this purpose, the paper deals with the issues of determining the maximum design values of the wind force acting on the total lateral surfaces of various types of cranes under different climatic, aerodynamic, probabilistic and other wind loads. A methodology is given for determining the maximum calculated total values of wind loads on the elements of the developed anti-theft device for lifting cranes moving along crane rail tracks. The calculated total lateral areas and wind loads on bridge support single- and double-girder cranes, gantry and tower cranes for various designs, spans, load capacities and other parameters have been determined. Based on the calculations performed, it is possible to create a model range of anti-theft devices for various designs of load-lifting cranes moving on crane rails under various operating conditions.
要对露天运行的起重设备的防脱装置(以下简称 AD)进行功率计算,必须知道通过侧杆连接的 AD 导轨元件上风力的最大计算值。推荐使用的各种类型的起重机防盗装置都有一些缺点,这在以前的文章中已有介绍。防盗起重机装置也是已知的,在这种装置中,起重起重机在轨道上的停止是通过与轨头表面相互作用的锁定偏心实现的。这种装置的可靠性不足,因为由于弹簧的恒定力,偏心与轨道的附着力并不取决于风力的变化。要对露天运行的起重机防盗装置进行功率计算,就必须知道当起重机不工作时,作用在将起重机固定在轨道上的元件上的风力的最大计算值。当起重机在风力 Pw 的作用下沿轨道移动时,偏心转动,将轨道上的压力传递给连接偏心机构和楔块机构的双臂杠杆。偏心机构实质上是楔块垂直运动的驱动装置,楔块垂直运动的结果是夹钳夹紧轨头,起重机停止。因此,起重机在力 Pw 的驱动下产生的能量被用来使其停止。为此,本文讨论了在不同气候、空气动力、概率和其他风荷载条件下,确定作用在各类起重机总侧向表面上的风力最大设计值的问题。文中给出了一种方法,用于确定所开发的沿起重机轨道移动的起重防盗装置各部件上风荷载的最大计算总值。确定了各种设计、跨度、载荷能力和其他参数下桥支座单梁和双梁起重机、龙门起重机和塔式起重机的总横向面积和风载荷计算值。根据所进行的计算,可以为各种设计的在起重机轨道上移动的起重起重机在各种运行条件下创建一系列防盗装置模型。
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引用次数: 0
Some Issues of Ensuring Completeness and Reliability of Operational Data Obtained in the Course of Instrument Inspection of Steel Underground Gas Pipelines 确保地下钢质天然气管道仪器检测过程中获得的运行数据的完整性和可靠性的若干问题
Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.21122/2227-1031-2024-23-1-58-66
N. Strutsky, V. Romaniuk
In the long term, along with the growth of nuclear power and related changes in the fuel and energy balance of the country, natural gas will retain an important place in the national economy, including in the production of heat and electricity Accordingly, the importance of gas distribution networks, which directly supply fuel to the Republic's consumers, will remain for a long time. According with the Concept of the National Strategy for Sustainable Development of the Republic of Belarus for the period until 2035, the main task in the gas sector is to maintain production assets at a level ensuring safe energy supply. Practice shows that corrosion factor has the greatest potential to influence the technical condition of steel underground distribution gas pipelines. To compensate for corrosion processes, steel underground pipelines are equipped with special protective means, in particular, insulation coatings. One of the key operational characteristics of  insulation is its integrity, which is controlled through periodic (comprehensive) instrumental technical inspection. Based on the inspection results, statistics of  identified defects of protective coatings is formed. The work examines the issues of ensuring the reliability of operational data, and highlights the experience of implementing specialized software packages in gas supply organizations of the Beltopgaz State Production Association for recording and processing the results of instrument surveys of gas distribution pipelines. The issue of the influence of organizational and production aspect (features of technology, local practice of planning and performing specific types of work on technical operation) on the structure of operational data, which requires separate study and accounting for their further statistical processing and use, has been considered in the paper.
从长远来看,随着核能的发展以及国家燃料和能源平衡的相关变化,天然气在国民经济中仍将保 持重要地位,包括在热能和电力生产方面。根据《白俄罗斯共和国 2035 年前可持续发展国家战略构想》,天然气行业的主要任务是将生产资产 保持在确保安全能源供应的水平上。实践证明,腐蚀因素最有可能影响钢制地下输气管道的技术状况。为了补偿腐蚀过程,钢制地下输气管道都配备了特殊的保护措施,特别是绝缘涂层。隔热层的主要运行特性之一是其完整性,通过定期(全面)的仪器技术检查对其进行控制。根据检查结果,对发现的保护层缺陷进行统计。这项工作研究了确保运行数据可靠性的问题,并重点介绍了 Beltopgaz 国家生产协会天然气供应组织实施专门软件包记录和处理输气管道仪器检测结果的经验。文件还考虑了组织和生产方面(技术特点、当地规划和执行技术操作特定类型工作的做法)对业务数据结构的影响问题,这需要对其进一步统计处理和使用进行单独研究和核算。
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引用次数: 0
Methodology for Calculating Additional Dynamic Settlements of the Bases of Slab Foundations of Buildings and Structures from Vibrations Propagating in the Soil Environment 计算土壤环境中传播的振动对建筑物和结构的楼板基础造成的额外动态沉降的方法
Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.21122/2227-1031-2024-23-1-46-57
K. Povkolas
The paper provides a method for calculating additional settlements of slab foundations of existing buildings and structures from vibration-dynamic influences that arise during various construction works near them (driving piles, vibra- tory driving of sheet piling beams, soil compaction with heavy rammers and vibrating hammers), as well as from industrial equipment and transport. The technique includes the following main steps. Using the finite element method, or measured existing vibration fields, the distribution of the maximum accelerations of ground vibrations under the base of the foundation along the depth is determined and the zone in which they exceed the critical accelerations at which volumetric and shear deformations of the soil begin to appear is identified. The soil at the base of the foundation is divided into elementary layers with a thickness of no more than 1/4 of the width of the foundation. Further, according to the known vibration-compression depen-dencies (the dependence of the change in the porosity coefficient e of soil samples on the acceleration of their vibrations a), which are obtained in laboratory conditions, the settlements of each layer are determined, the summation of which gives the total value of the additional dynamic settlement Sд. If it, together with the static settlement Sст, exceeds the maximum normalized settlement values, it is proposed to use three methods to reduce or eliminate Sд – drilling injection strengthening of the zone of development of additional settlements, the use of a horizontal inertial plate or a vertical barrier made of easily compressible materials in the path of vibration propagation, the use of which reduces the intensity of vibration-dynamic impacts transmitted to the foundations under consideration.
本文提供了一种方法,用于计算现有建筑物和结构的楼板地基在其附近的各种建筑工程(打桩、振动打板桩梁、用重型夯实机和振动锤夯实土壤)以及工业设备和运输过程中产生的振动动力影响。该技术包括以下主要步骤。使用有限元方法或测量现有振动场,确定地基底部地面振动的最大加速度沿深度的分布,并确定其超过临界加速度的区域,在该区域土壤开始出现体积和剪切变形。地基底部的土壤被分成厚度不超过地基宽度 1/4 的基本层。此外,根据在实验室条件下获得的已知振动-压缩依赖性(土样孔隙度系数 e 的变化对其振动加速度 a 的依赖性),确定每层的沉降量,将其相加得出附加动态沉降 Sд 的总值。如果它与静态沉降 Sд一起超过了最大归一化沉降值,则建议使用三种方法来减少或消除 Sд--在额外沉降发展区进行钻孔注浆加固,在振动传播路径上使用水平惯性板或由易压缩材料制成的垂直屏障,使用这些方法可以减少传递到地基上的振动动力冲击强度。
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引用次数: 0
Forecasting the Risk of Bankruptcy in Poorly Formalized Processes 预测不正规流程中的破产风险
Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.21122/2227-1031-2024-23-1-80-86
Z. T. Gaibnazarova, B. T. Solieva, N. A. Iminova
There is a class of complex systems characterized by dynamism, multi-link structural elements, multi-stage, multi-linked chain of processes. Moreover, each of these processes occurs under conditions of stochastic and non-stochastic uncertainty in the initial information, internal and external environment, which predetermine the uncertainty of the nature of the development of the situation. Decision-making problems in such systems are divided into two types: 1) decision-making problems under risk conditions, when uncertainty conditions are only probabilistic, stochastic in nature; 2) decision-making problems under conditions of uncertainty, when the accompanying conditions are of a non-stochastic nature, and also when the necessary reliable statistical data is unknown. In tasks of the second type, risks are manifested to a greater extent than in the first. At the same time, risk should be considered – as an object, event, phenomenon – as a formal mathematical category in accordance with its following information interpretation: risk is information uncertainty, fuzziness of the “object – subject – environment” system and its individual elements. The measure of this uncertainty determines the measure of danger, possible damage, loss from the implementation of some decision or event. The existence of risk is associated with the inability to predict the future with 100 % accuracy. Based on this, the main property of risk should be singled out: risk occurs only in relation to the future and is inextricably linked with forecasting, and therefore with decision-making in general (the word “risk” literally means “making a decision”, the result of which is unknown). Following the above, it is also worth noting that the categories “risk” and “uncertainty” are closely related and are often used as synonyms. In conditions when the initial factors are given in the form of fuzzy characteristics, other approaches based on the intelligent technologies of Soft Computing are widely used for forecasting. When evaluating alternative decision-making options for risk assessment under uncertainty, the problem of developing fuzzy models based on fuzzy inference rules arises. But there is no universal method for constructing fuzzy evaluation models. The advantage of fuzzy logic lies in the possibility of using expert knowledge about a given object in the form of if “inputs”, then “outputs”. In the paper a bankruptcy risk model is developed in poorly formalized processes for the purpose of forecasting.
有一类复杂系统的特点是动态性、多环节结构要素、多阶段、多环节过程链。此外,这些过程中的每一个过程都是在初始信息、内部和外部环境的随机和非随机不确定性条件下发生的,这些条件预先决定了形势发展性质的不确定性。这类系统中的决策问题分为两类:1) 风险条件下的决策问题,即不确定性条件只是概率性的、随机性的;2) 不确定性条件下的决策问题,即伴随的条件是非随机性的,而且必要的可靠统计数据也是未知的。在第二类任务中,风险比第一类任务表现得更为明显。与此同时,风险作为一种对象、事件、现象,应被视为一种形式化的数学范畴,其信息解释如下:风险是信息的不确定性,是 "对象-主体-环境 "系统及其各个要素的模糊性。这种不确定性的度量决定了执行某些决定或事件所带来的危险、可能的损害、损失的度量。风险的存在与无法百分之百准确地预测未来有关。在此基础上,风险的主要特性应予以突出:风险只发生在与未来有关的情况下,与预测密不可分,因此也与一般决策密不可分("风险 "一词的字面意思是 "做出决定",其结果是未知的)。综上所述,还值得注意的是,"风险 "和 "不确定性 "这两个词密切相关,经常被用作同义词。在初始因素以模糊特征形式给出的条件下,基于软计算智能技术的其他方法被广泛用于预测。在对不确定情况下的风险评估备选决策方案进行评估时,会出现基于模糊推理规则建立模糊模型的问题。但目前还没有构建模糊评估模型的通用方法。模糊逻辑的优势在于可以使用专家对给定对象的知识,即如果 "输入",则 "输出"。本文以预测为目的,在形式化程度较低的过程中建立了一个破产风险模型。
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引用次数: 0
University as a Driver of New Industrial Policy of Russia: Efficiency Evaluation (Using the Case of National Research University of Electronic Technology) 大学是俄罗斯新产业政策的推动力:效率评估(以国立电子科技研究大学为例)
Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.21122/2227-1031-2024-23-1-67-79
M. V. Dobrynina, T. V. Rastimeshina
Development of higher education institutions within the framework of the “University 3.0” paradigm is actively analyzed in the research community of Russia, Belarus and Euroasian Economic Community countries. However, a small number of scientists are trying to give a comprehensive assessment of the role of Russian universities in achieving the goals of new industrial policy. The paper presents the results of a study aimed at filling this gap. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the efficiency of higher education institutions in the context of their contribution to achieving the goals of the new industrial policy (using the example of key development indicators of the National Research University of Electronic Technology (MIET). During the study, the following tasks have been solved: a brief overview of the main scientific publications covering the research issue was completed; the content and main directions of the new industrial policy were analyzed; the role of universities as key elements of the institutional mechanism of the new industrial policy has been revealed, through the implementation of which universities carry out it. A hypothesis has been put forward about imbalance of two key areas of development of leading Russian research universities in terms of their participation in increasing the economic power of Russia. Based on the analysis of the main indicators of the development of the National Research University of Electronic Technology (MIET) it has been demonstrated that significantly more time and resources is devoted to expanding the pre-sence of this university in national science and industry than to improving the quality of educational programs and introducing the results of innovative activity into work with students and graduate students. Conclusions have been made that theoretical model and practical ways and means for transporting resources, innovative solutions and innovation energy in the educational space are not sufficiently explored. Practical recommendations for educational institutions are formulated: it is proposed to involve industrial enterprises more widely not only in accreditation, but also in the implementation of educational programs (including such elements as internships and internships at industrial enterprises). This approach will help to strengthen the effects of the triple spiral of innovation in the training of engineering personnel for the real sector of the economy
俄罗斯、白俄罗斯和欧亚经济共同体国家的研究界正在积极分析高等教育机构在 "大学 3.0 "范式框架内的发展。然而,只有少数科学家试图全面评估俄罗斯大学在实现新产业政策目标方面的作用。本文介绍了旨在填补这一空白的研究成果。研究的目的是根据高等教育机构对实现新产业政策目标的贡献来评估其效率(以国立电子科技研究大学(MIET)的关键发展指标为例)。在研究过程中,完成了以下任务:完成了对涉及研究问题的主要科学出版物的简要概述;分析了新产业政策的内容和主要方向;揭示了大学作为新产业政策体制机制关键要素的作用,大学通过实施新产业政策来执行新产业政策。就俄罗斯一流研究型大学在参与提高俄罗斯经济实力方面的两个关键发展领域的不平衡提出了假设。根据对国立电子科技研究大学(MIET)发展主要指标的分析表明,用于扩大该大学在国家科学和工业领域的前沿地位的时间和资源明显多于用于提高教学计划质量和将创新活动成果引入学生和研究生工作的时间和资源。得出的结论是,在教育领域输送资源、创新解决方案和创新能量的理论模式和实践方式方法尚未得到充分探索。为教育机构提出了切实可行的建议:建议让工业企业更广泛地参与进来,不仅参与评审,而且参与教育计划的实施(包括在工业企业实习和见习等内容)。这种方法将有助于在为实体经济部门培养工程技术人员的过程中加强三重螺旋式创新的效果
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引用次数: 0
University as a Driver of New Industrial Policy of Russia: Efficiency Evaluation (Using the Case of National Research University of Electronic Technology) 大学是俄罗斯新产业政策的推动力:效率评估(以国立电子科技研究大学为例)
Pub Date : 2024-02-05 DOI: 10.21122/2227-1031-2024-23-1-67-79
M. V. Dobrynina, T. V. Rastimeshina
Development of higher education institutions within the framework of the “University 3.0” paradigm is actively analyzed in the research community of Russia, Belarus and Euroasian Economic Community countries. However, a small number of scientists are trying to give a comprehensive assessment of the role of Russian universities in achieving the goals of new industrial policy. The paper presents the results of a study aimed at filling this gap. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the efficiency of higher education institutions in the context of their contribution to achieving the goals of the new industrial policy (using the example of key development indicators of the National Research University of Electronic Technology (MIET). During the study, the following tasks have been solved: a brief overview of the main scientific publications covering the research issue was completed; the content and main directions of the new industrial policy were analyzed; the role of universities as key elements of the institutional mechanism of the new industrial policy has been revealed, through the implementation of which universities carry out it. A hypothesis has been put forward about imbalance of two key areas of development of leading Russian research universities in terms of their participation in increasing the economic power of Russia. Based on the analysis of the main indicators of the development of the National Research University of Electronic Technology (MIET) it has been demonstrated that significantly more time and resources is devoted to expanding the pre-sence of this university in national science and industry than to improving the quality of educational programs and introducing the results of innovative activity into work with students and graduate students. Conclusions have been made that theoretical model and practical ways and means for transporting resources, innovative solutions and innovation energy in the educational space are not sufficiently explored. Practical recommendations for educational institutions are formulated: it is proposed to involve industrial enterprises more widely not only in accreditation, but also in the implementation of educational programs (including such elements as internships and internships at industrial enterprises). This approach will help to strengthen the effects of the triple spiral of innovation in the training of engineering personnel for the real sector of the economy
俄罗斯、白俄罗斯和欧亚经济共同体国家的研究界正在积极分析高等教育机构在 "大学 3.0 "范式框架内的发展。然而,只有少数科学家试图全面评估俄罗斯大学在实现新产业政策目标方面的作用。本文介绍了旨在填补这一空白的研究成果。研究的目的是根据高等教育机构对实现新产业政策目标的贡献来评估其效率(以国立电子科技研究大学(MIET)的关键发展指标为例)。在研究过程中,完成了以下任务:完成了对涉及研究问题的主要科学出版物的简要概述;分析了新产业政策的内容和主要方向;揭示了大学作为新产业政策体制机制关键要素的作用,大学通过实施新产业政策来执行新产业政策。就俄罗斯一流研究型大学在参与提高俄罗斯经济实力方面的两个关键发展领域的不平衡提出了假设。根据对国立电子科技研究大学(MIET)发展主要指标的分析表明,用于扩大该大学在国家科学和工业领域的前沿地位的时间和资源明显多于用于提高教学计划质量和将创新活动成果引入学生和研究生工作的时间和资源。得出的结论是,在教育领域输送资源、创新解决方案和创新能量的理论模式和实践方式方法尚未得到充分探索。为教育机构提出了切实可行的建议:建议让工业企业更广泛地参与进来,不仅参与评审,而且参与教育计划的实施(包括在工业企业实习和见习等内容)。这种方法将有助于在为实体经济部门培养工程技术人员的过程中加强三重螺旋式创新的效果
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引用次数: 0
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