Pub Date : 2022-01-14DOI: 10.1177/00157325211057977
Phan Thanh Hoan, Duong Thi Dieu My
Vietnam is one of the top information and communication technologies (ICT) exporters globally, and the ICT products constitute nearly one-fifth of Vietnam’s total exports to the European Union (EU). This study empirically investigates the determinants of Vietnam’s ICT exports to the EU by applying the gravity model for trade with panel data from 2000 to 2019. Besides the traditional variables of the gravity model, we added gross capital formation, patent application and exchange rates as explanatory variables. The results show that among factors affecting Vietnam’s ICT export to the EU, market size, patent applications, and exchange rate are the most significant determinants. The article also suggests some policy implications for the development of ICT exports between the two parties. JEL Codes: F14, C2
{"title":"The Determinants of Vietnam’s Information and Communication Technologies Exports to the European Union","authors":"Phan Thanh Hoan, Duong Thi Dieu My","doi":"10.1177/00157325211057977","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00157325211057977","url":null,"abstract":"Vietnam is one of the top information and communication technologies (ICT) exporters globally, and the ICT products constitute nearly one-fifth of Vietnam’s total exports to the European Union (EU). This study empirically investigates the determinants of Vietnam’s ICT exports to the EU by applying the gravity model for trade with panel data from 2000 to 2019. Besides the traditional variables of the gravity model, we added gross capital formation, patent application and exchange rates as explanatory variables. The results show that among factors affecting Vietnam’s ICT export to the EU, market size, patent applications, and exchange rate are the most significant determinants. The article also suggests some policy implications for the development of ICT exports between the two parties. JEL Codes: F14, C2","PeriodicalId":29933,"journal":{"name":"Foreign Trade Review","volume":"118 1","pages":"148 - 159"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2022-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77420555","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-14DOI: 10.1177/00157325211060932
M. H. Heidary
Epidemic outbreaks are one of the important sources of the risk in the global supply chains. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, global industries that were unprepared for disruptions experienced a decline due to the pandemic. A global supply chain is a complex system set of dynamics that could be analyzed by the system dynamics approach. In this article, the impact of the recent pandemic on the global supply chain is simulated in different scenarios. A system dynamic model is developed to carry out the simulations. In order to consider the impact of the pandemic on the exogenous and endogenous variables, a force majeure factor is defined in the model. Global features considered in this article are the export and import operations, the exchange rate and the rate of tariff. In this article, a scenario analysis is performed to analyze two important factors of the global supply chain: force majeure factor and delivery delay. Results showed that improving the flexibility of production capacity is one of the important strategies that global supply chain managers should pursue. JEL Codes: F23, P45, C15, C63, E37, F17
{"title":"The Effect of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Global Supply Chain Operations: A System Dynamics Approach","authors":"M. H. Heidary","doi":"10.1177/00157325211060932","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00157325211060932","url":null,"abstract":"Epidemic outbreaks are one of the important sources of the risk in the global supply chains. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, global industries that were unprepared for disruptions experienced a decline due to the pandemic. A global supply chain is a complex system set of dynamics that could be analyzed by the system dynamics approach. In this article, the impact of the recent pandemic on the global supply chain is simulated in different scenarios. A system dynamic model is developed to carry out the simulations. In order to consider the impact of the pandemic on the exogenous and endogenous variables, a force majeure factor is defined in the model. Global features considered in this article are the export and import operations, the exchange rate and the rate of tariff. In this article, a scenario analysis is performed to analyze two important factors of the global supply chain: force majeure factor and delivery delay. Results showed that improving the flexibility of production capacity is one of the important strategies that global supply chain managers should pursue. JEL Codes: F23, P45, C15, C63, E37, F17","PeriodicalId":29933,"journal":{"name":"Foreign Trade Review","volume":"356 1","pages":"198 - 220"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2022-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75727876","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-12DOI: 10.1177/00157325211050448
Camila do Carmo Hermida, A. M. A. D. Santos, M. Bittencourt
This article aims to investigate whether the international fragmentation of production and the global value chains (hereafter GVCs) participation affects the economic growth for a set of 40 advanced and emerging economies. It considers four aspects related to the type of participation and position in GVCs captured by different value-added measures: (a) vertical specialisation index; (b) GVC participation index; (c) GVC position index in low-tech sectors; and (d) GVC position index in high-tech sectors. A panel autoregressive distributed lag (PARDL) model is pioneeringly employed to capture the long-term relationship between economic growth and our four measures for annual value-added data from 1995 to 2011, provided by the World Input–Output Tables (WIOT). The main long-run results indicate that (a) higher levels of international fragmentation of production and GVCs’ participation ensure higher GDP per capita growth rates; (b) the fragmentation and GVCs’ participation are more important to GDP growth than the gross exports as a percentage of GDP; (c) GVCs’ participation index, which considers both the ‘forward’ and ‘backward’ participation, is less important than the vertical specialisation, measured by the foreign intermediate imports; and (d the countries engaged in upstream positions in low-technology GVCs were positively and significantly benefitted in terms of growth. JEL Codes: F14, F43
{"title":"Does International Fragmentation of Production and Global Value Chains Participation Affect the Long-run Economic Growth?","authors":"Camila do Carmo Hermida, A. M. A. D. Santos, M. Bittencourt","doi":"10.1177/00157325211050448","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00157325211050448","url":null,"abstract":"This article aims to investigate whether the international fragmentation of production and the global value chains (hereafter GVCs) participation affects the economic growth for a set of 40 advanced and emerging economies. It considers four aspects related to the type of participation and position in GVCs captured by different value-added measures: (a) vertical specialisation index; (b) GVC participation index; (c) GVC position index in low-tech sectors; and (d) GVC position index in high-tech sectors. A panel autoregressive distributed lag (PARDL) model is pioneeringly employed to capture the long-term relationship between economic growth and our four measures for annual value-added data from 1995 to 2011, provided by the World Input–Output Tables (WIOT). The main long-run results indicate that (a) higher levels of international fragmentation of production and GVCs’ participation ensure higher GDP per capita growth rates; (b) the fragmentation and GVCs’ participation are more important to GDP growth than the gross exports as a percentage of GDP; (c) GVCs’ participation index, which considers both the ‘forward’ and ‘backward’ participation, is less important than the vertical specialisation, measured by the foreign intermediate imports; and (d the countries engaged in upstream positions in low-technology GVCs were positively and significantly benefitted in terms of growth. JEL Codes: F14, F43","PeriodicalId":29933,"journal":{"name":"Foreign Trade Review","volume":"125 1","pages":"367 - 389"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2022-01-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78319653","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-25DOI: 10.1177/00157325211047001
Semih Karacan, Özgen Korkmaz
Turkey was subjected to a number of financial shocks after the liberalisation movements in the 1980s. The most devastating of them was the consecutive political and financial crises in late 2000 and early 2001. The absence of political stability and depreciated Turkish Lira devastated the markets. The Turkish government immediately acted against the collapsed economic system and introduced a radical Economic Stability Programme under the supervision of Kemal Dervis¸. The programme has restructured the banking and financial system and improved economic discipline. In this study, we aim to investigate the impacts of the 2001 crisis and the structural changes on Turkish exports. To this end, we estimate a one-way gravity model, using panel data belonging to Turkish exports to 135 World Trade Organization (WTO) member countries, over the period between 1981 and 2015. The augmented model controls for the inter/intra-industry exports, competitiveness, trade agreements, trade unions and additional demographics. We utilised Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) estimator to account for unobservable time-invariant effects, zero trade, possible heteroscedasticity, and cross-correlation. The results reveals that Turkey has become a free market economy after the liberalisation movements in the early 1980s, and its exports are determined by the same indicators that affect other similar economies; on the other hand, the 2001 crisis has an immediate positive effect on exports through weak Turkish Lira, but this effect turns to negative in the following year. In addition, we find that structural changes in the economic system has a significant effect on exports and help to mitigate the trade-distorting effects of the global financial crisis in 2008. JEL Codes: C33, F13, F14
{"title":"Turkish Exports Before and After the 2001 Financial Crisis: A Panel Gravity Model","authors":"Semih Karacan, Özgen Korkmaz","doi":"10.1177/00157325211047001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00157325211047001","url":null,"abstract":"Turkey was subjected to a number of financial shocks after the liberalisation movements in the 1980s. The most devastating of them was the consecutive political and financial crises in late 2000 and early 2001. The absence of political stability and depreciated Turkish Lira devastated the markets. The Turkish government immediately acted against the collapsed economic system and introduced a radical Economic Stability Programme under the supervision of Kemal Dervis¸. The programme has restructured the banking and financial system and improved economic discipline. In this study, we aim to investigate the impacts of the 2001 crisis and the structural changes on Turkish exports. To this end, we estimate a one-way gravity model, using panel data belonging to Turkish exports to 135 World Trade Organization (WTO) member countries, over the period between 1981 and 2015. The augmented model controls for the inter/intra-industry exports, competitiveness, trade agreements, trade unions and additional demographics. We utilised Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood (PPML) estimator to account for unobservable time-invariant effects, zero trade, possible heteroscedasticity, and cross-correlation. The results reveals that Turkey has become a free market economy after the liberalisation movements in the early 1980s, and its exports are determined by the same indicators that affect other similar economies; on the other hand, the 2001 crisis has an immediate positive effect on exports through weak Turkish Lira, but this effect turns to negative in the following year. In addition, we find that structural changes in the economic system has a significant effect on exports and help to mitigate the trade-distorting effects of the global financial crisis in 2008. JEL Codes: C33, F13, F14","PeriodicalId":29933,"journal":{"name":"Foreign Trade Review","volume":"24 4-5 1","pages":"27 - 40"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77819734","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-06DOI: 10.1177/00157325211050763
Anwesha Basu
The present study attempts to quantify ex-ante the impact on trade flows, revenue and welfare of the India–EU FTA on India’s dairy sector. In light of the fact that the EU is the world’s largest exporter of dairy products and India’s dairy sector is highly protected, it is important to assess the potential impact that an FTA with EU can have on this sector. Using a partial equilibrium set-up, our simulation results reveal that the estimated increase in India’s imports of dairy products is mainly driven by trade creation rather than trade diversion, implying that the FTA does not promote inefficient dairy trade at the cost of other countries outside the trade bloc. We augment our analysis using the gravity model to estimate the potential increase in dairy sector imports due to trade liberalisation. PPML estimates suggest that a 10% decline in tariff rates leads to a 3.4% increase in the value of imports. While the estimated increase in dairy imports is significant, our analysis indicates that the increased value of imports, expressed as a fraction of India’s domestic output of dairy products, would still be less than 1%. JEL Codes: F13, F14, F17
{"title":"The India–EU FTA and Its Potential Impact on India’s Dairy Sector: A Quantitative Analysis","authors":"Anwesha Basu","doi":"10.1177/00157325211050763","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00157325211050763","url":null,"abstract":"The present study attempts to quantify ex-ante the impact on trade flows, revenue and welfare of the India–EU FTA on India’s dairy sector. In light of the fact that the EU is the world’s largest exporter of dairy products and India’s dairy sector is highly protected, it is important to assess the potential impact that an FTA with EU can have on this sector. Using a partial equilibrium set-up, our simulation results reveal that the estimated increase in India’s imports of dairy products is mainly driven by trade creation rather than trade diversion, implying that the FTA does not promote inefficient dairy trade at the cost of other countries outside the trade bloc. We augment our analysis using the gravity model to estimate the potential increase in dairy sector imports due to trade liberalisation. PPML estimates suggest that a 10% decline in tariff rates leads to a 3.4% increase in the value of imports. While the estimated increase in dairy imports is significant, our analysis indicates that the increased value of imports, expressed as a fraction of India’s domestic output of dairy products, would still be less than 1%. JEL Codes: F13, F14, F17","PeriodicalId":29933,"journal":{"name":"Foreign Trade Review","volume":"114 1","pages":"7 - 26"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-12-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87952763","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-11-13DOI: 10.1177/00157325211048018
Moumita Basu, Rilina Basu, Ranjanendra Narayan Nag
Given the unforeseen and uncertain circumstances during the pandemic, the role of government expenditure becomes extremely relevant in sustaining lives and livelihoods of the masses. This brings forth public sector deficit as a key issue of macroeconomic policy debate. This article aims at investigating the effects of an unanticipated adverse shock like COVID-19, on the real value of public debt, in a small open economy, consisting of traded and non-traded sectors, along with proposed management of such crisis with fiscal and monetary expansion. The results of policy-induced and exogenous shocks depend on the difference in the speeds of adjustments in real exchange rate, interest rate and real value of debt, and the associated multitudes of cross effects. While an unanticipated adverse shock like COVID-19 causes contraction of both traded and non-traded sectors and reduces consumption expenditure, investment expenditure and level of employment and real value of aggregate income in the short run, fiscal expansion causes higher real value of debt and lower real exchange rate. JEL Codes: E12, E62, H63
{"title":"A Dependent Economy Model of Employment, Real Exchange Rate and Debt Dynamics: Towards an Understanding of Pandemic Crisis","authors":"Moumita Basu, Rilina Basu, Ranjanendra Narayan Nag","doi":"10.1177/00157325211048018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00157325211048018","url":null,"abstract":"Given the unforeseen and uncertain circumstances during the pandemic, the role of government expenditure becomes extremely relevant in sustaining lives and livelihoods of the masses. This brings forth public sector deficit as a key issue of macroeconomic policy debate. This article aims at investigating the effects of an unanticipated adverse shock like COVID-19, on the real value of public debt, in a small open economy, consisting of traded and non-traded sectors, along with proposed management of such crisis with fiscal and monetary expansion. The results of policy-induced and exogenous shocks depend on the difference in the speeds of adjustments in real exchange rate, interest rate and real value of debt, and the associated multitudes of cross effects. While an unanticipated adverse shock like COVID-19 causes contraction of both traded and non-traded sectors and reduces consumption expenditure, investment expenditure and level of employment and real value of aggregate income in the short run, fiscal expansion causes higher real value of debt and lower real exchange rate. JEL Codes: E12, E62, H63","PeriodicalId":29933,"journal":{"name":"Foreign Trade Review","volume":"137 1","pages":"85 - 113"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74010100","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-11-13DOI: 10.1177/00157325211045471
Thanh Dinh Su, C. Nguyen
This study examines the catalytic role of trade openness in the relationships between human capital and public spending and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in 44 developing countries over the 1980–2014 period. Applying various estimation techniques to deal with autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and cross-section dependence, the study finds that (a) the effect of human capital on TFP is nonlinear, (b) government consumption positively affects TFP but military spending is a negative factor and (c) trade openness significantly improves the positive influences of these factors on TFP. The results imply the important role of trade liberalisation in productivity evolution in developing countries. JEL Codes: F43, H52, O47
{"title":"Productive Contribution of Public Spending and Human Capital in Developing Countries Revisited: The Role of Trade Openness","authors":"Thanh Dinh Su, C. Nguyen","doi":"10.1177/00157325211045471","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00157325211045471","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the catalytic role of trade openness in the relationships between human capital and public spending and total factor productivity (TFP) growth in 44 developing countries over the 1980–2014 period. Applying various estimation techniques to deal with autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and cross-section dependence, the study finds that (a) the effect of human capital on TFP is nonlinear, (b) government consumption positively affects TFP but military spending is a negative factor and (c) trade openness significantly improves the positive influences of these factors on TFP. The results imply the important role of trade liberalisation in productivity evolution in developing countries. JEL Codes: F43, H52, O47","PeriodicalId":29933,"journal":{"name":"Foreign Trade Review","volume":"117 1","pages":"66 - 84"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-11-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79384869","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-11-01DOI: 10.1177/00157325211031073
Ranajoy Bhattacharyya
Rajib Bhattacharyya (Ed.), The Gains and Pains of Integration and Trade Liberalization: Lessons from Emerging Economies. UK: Emerald Publishing, 2020, $105, 296 pp. ISBN: 9781838670047.
{"title":"Book review: Rajib Bhattacharyya (Ed.), The Gains and Pains of Integration and Trade Liberalization: Lessons from Emerging Economies","authors":"Ranajoy Bhattacharyya","doi":"10.1177/00157325211031073","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00157325211031073","url":null,"abstract":"Rajib Bhattacharyya (Ed.), The Gains and Pains of Integration and Trade Liberalization: Lessons from Emerging Economies. UK: Emerald Publishing, 2020, $105, 296 pp. ISBN: 9781838670047.","PeriodicalId":29933,"journal":{"name":"Foreign Trade Review","volume":"8 1","pages":"491 - 492"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88006115","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-31DOI: 10.1177/00157325211042107
Aisha Tauqir, Muhammad Tariq Majeed, Sadaf Kashif
Volatility in output growth remains a genuine concern around the globe because of its detrimental effects on growth, poverty and welfare. In the realm of output volatility, the role of FDI and its consistency is particularly important and worth considering. This article examines the role of FDI inflows and specifically the instability in it on output growth volatility using a panel dataset of 141 world economies for the period 1971–2017. The study employs a variety of estimation techniques like pooled ordinary least squares (POLS), LS fixed effects (FE), LS random effects (RE), two stage least squares (2SLS) and generalised methods of moments (GMM). Findings of the study suggest that FDI acts as the volatility reducing factor, whereas uncertainty in it increases output volatility. On the policy front, this study recommends policies that not only encourage FDI inflows but also ensure the inflows to be more consistent and stable. Our results are robust corresponding to various above-mentioned estimation techniques and sensitivity analysis. JEL Codes: C23, E32, F21
{"title":"Foreign Direct Investment and Output Volatility Nexus: A Global Analysis","authors":"Aisha Tauqir, Muhammad Tariq Majeed, Sadaf Kashif","doi":"10.1177/00157325211042107","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00157325211042107","url":null,"abstract":"Volatility in output growth remains a genuine concern around the globe because of its detrimental effects on growth, poverty and welfare. In the realm of output volatility, the role of FDI and its consistency is particularly important and worth considering. This article examines the role of FDI inflows and specifically the instability in it on output growth volatility using a panel dataset of 141 world economies for the period 1971–2017. The study employs a variety of estimation techniques like pooled ordinary least squares (POLS), LS fixed effects (FE), LS random effects (RE), two stage least squares (2SLS) and generalised methods of moments (GMM). Findings of the study suggest that FDI acts as the volatility reducing factor, whereas uncertainty in it increases output volatility. On the policy front, this study recommends policies that not only encourage FDI inflows but also ensure the inflows to be more consistent and stable. Our results are robust corresponding to various above-mentioned estimation techniques and sensitivity analysis. JEL Codes: C23, E32, F21","PeriodicalId":29933,"journal":{"name":"Foreign Trade Review","volume":"47 1","pages":"283 - 309"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-10-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82090087","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-10-28DOI: 10.1177/00157325211045463
B. Gopalakrishnan, Sumathi Chakravarthy, Tavishi Tewary, Vranda Jain
As global value chains (GVCs) account for 80% of global trade, the revival of protectionism, amidst the looming trade tensions between United States and other trading partners, particularly China will dampen the international input–output relations. By using a multi-regional and multi-sectoral dynamic computable general equilibrium model, this study analyses China driven GVCs. The study explores the impact of tariff change on China and its major trading partners on economic variables like consumption, investment, government expenditure, exports and imports and sectors like electronic goods, coal, crude oil and machine equipment for the five-year period, that is, 2021–2025. GTAP 10 database has been used. The findings of the study suggest that although China’s dominance may diminish, yet it would continue to be one of the prominent players in GVC. Further, based on the results, the global economy can look forward to fragmented and locally oriented supply chains. At the sectoral level, the shorter supply chains would lead a further disjoint global trade system with a wider range of suppliers for similar products and hence increased regionalisation of production. JEL Codes: F10, F17, F60, F16, D58
{"title":"Isolating China: Deglobalisation and its Impact on Global Value Chains","authors":"B. Gopalakrishnan, Sumathi Chakravarthy, Tavishi Tewary, Vranda Jain","doi":"10.1177/00157325211045463","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/00157325211045463","url":null,"abstract":"As global value chains (GVCs) account for 80% of global trade, the revival of protectionism, amidst the looming trade tensions between United States and other trading partners, particularly China will dampen the international input–output relations. By using a multi-regional and multi-sectoral dynamic computable general equilibrium model, this study analyses China driven GVCs. The study explores the impact of tariff change on China and its major trading partners on economic variables like consumption, investment, government expenditure, exports and imports and sectors like electronic goods, coal, crude oil and machine equipment for the five-year period, that is, 2021–2025. GTAP 10 database has been used. The findings of the study suggest that although China’s dominance may diminish, yet it would continue to be one of the prominent players in GVC. Further, based on the results, the global economy can look forward to fragmented and locally oriented supply chains. At the sectoral level, the shorter supply chains would lead a further disjoint global trade system with a wider range of suppliers for similar products and hence increased regionalisation of production. JEL Codes: F10, F17, F60, F16, D58","PeriodicalId":29933,"journal":{"name":"Foreign Trade Review","volume":"12 1","pages":"390 - 407"},"PeriodicalIF":1.3,"publicationDate":"2021-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80441649","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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