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Impact of Climate Change on Flood Factors and Extent of Damages in the Hindu Kush Region 气候变化对兴都库什地区洪水因素及损失程度的影响
Pub Date : 2019-03-26 DOI: 10.1093/ACREFORE/9780199389407.013.316
A. Rahman, Shakeel Mahmood, Mohammad H. Dawood, G. Rahman, Fang Chen
This chapter analyzes the impacts of climate change on flood factors and extent of associated damages in the Hindu Kush (HK) region. HK mountains system is located in the west of the Himalayas and Karakorum. It is the greatest watershed of the River Kabul, River Chitral, River Panjkora, and River Swat in the eastern Hindu Kush and River Amu in western Hindu Kush. The Hindu Kush system hosts numerous glaciers, snow-clad mountains, and fertile river valleys; it also supports large populations and provides year-round water to recharge streams and rivers. The study region is vulnerable to a wide range of hazards including floods, earthquakes, landslides, desertification, and drought. Flash floods and riverine floods are the deadliest extreme hydro-meteorological events. The upper reaches experience characteristics of flash flooding, whereas the lower reach is where river floods occur. Flash floods are more destructive and sudden. Almost every year in summer, monsoonal rainfall and high temperature join hands with heavy melting of glaciers and snow accelerating discharge in the river system. In the face of climate change, a significant correlation between rainfall patterns, trends in temperature, and resultant peaks in river discharge have been recorded. A rising trend was found in temperature, which leads to early and rapid melting of glaciers and snow in the headwater region. The analysis reveals that during the past three decades, radical changes in the behavior of numerous valley glaciers have been noted. In addition, the spatial and temporal scales of violent weather events have been growing, since the 1980s. Such changes in water regimes including the frequent but substantial increase in heavy precipitation events and rapid melting of snow in the headwater region, siltation in active channels, excessive deforestation, and human encroachments onto the active flood channel have further escalated the flooding events. The HK region is beyond the reach of existing weather RADAR network, and hence forecasting and early warning is ineffective. Here, almost every year, the floods cause damages to infrastructure, scarce farmland, and sources of livelihood.
本章分析了气候变化对兴都库什山(香港)地区洪水因素和相关损害程度的影响。香港山系位于喜马拉雅山脉和喀喇昆仑山脉的西部。它是东部兴都库什山脉的喀布尔河、吉德拉尔河、潘杰科拉河、斯瓦特河和西部兴都库什山脉的阿姆河的最大分水岭。兴都库什山脉拥有众多的冰川、冰雪覆盖的山脉和肥沃的河谷;它还支持大量人口,并提供全年的水来补充溪流和河流。研究区域容易受到洪水、地震、滑坡、荒漠化和干旱等多种灾害的影响。山洪和河流洪水是最致命的极端水文气象事件。上游具有山洪暴发的特征,而下游则是河流洪水发生的地方。山洪更具破坏性和突发性。几乎每年夏季,季风性降雨和高温加上冰川和积雪的大量融化,加速了河流系统的排放。面对气候变化,降雨模式、温度趋势和由此产生的河流流量峰值之间存在显著的相关性。气温有上升的趋势,导致源区冰川和积雪的早期和快速融化。分析表明,在过去三十年中,已经注意到许多山谷冰川的行为发生了根本变化。此外,自20世纪80年代以来,暴力天气事件的时空尺度一直在增长。这些水势的变化,包括频繁但大量增加的强降水事件和源头地区快速的积雪融化,活跃渠道的淤积,过度的森林砍伐和人类对活跃洪道的侵占,进一步加剧了洪水事件。香港地区不在现有天气雷达网络的覆盖范围内,因此预报和预警是无效的。在这里,几乎每年都有洪水对基础设施、稀缺的农田和生计来源造成破坏。
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引用次数: 6
Climate Adaptation Governance in Pakistan 巴基斯坦的气候适应治理
Pub Date : 2019-03-26 DOI: 10.1093/ACREFORE/9780199389407.013.310
S. Ali, A. Khan, Hamna Shakeel
Climate change is one of the greatest threats to the security of water, food, and energy in Pakistan. Pakistan has seen increased visibility of direct and indirect impacts of climate change since the early 1990s. Pakistan’s government achieved a milestone in 2012 when the first National Climate Change Policy (NCCP) was proposed. In response to dynamic climate trends, it provided a broad set of adaptation measures for vulnerable sectors such as power, food, water, and health. In 2014, a more precise follow-up framework was developed which proposed strategies to achieve the objectives of the NCCP. The government is also cooperating with national and international organizations and societies to make vulnerable sectors and local communities resilient against water shortages, flash floods, cyclones, and temperature extremes. Analysis of the existing state of adaptation actions and systems exposes several deficiencies. There is a huge knowledge gap between researchers and policymakers which needs to be bridged. Stakeholders, local communities, and experts from relevant fields need to be involved in the process of policy making for the development of a comprehensive adaptation plan. Educational and research institutes in Pakistan are deficient in expertise and modern tools and technologies for predicting future climatic trends and the risks they pose to various sectors of the country. Lack of awareness in the general public, related to climate change and associated risks, is also an obstacle in developing climate-resilient communities. The government of Pakistan is giving due importance to the development of policies and capacity building of relevant implementing departments and research institutes. However, there is still a need for a strong enforcement body at the national, provincial, and municipal levels to successfully implement government strategies.
气候变化是巴基斯坦水、食品和能源安全面临的最大威胁之一。自20世纪90年代初以来,巴基斯坦越来越清楚地看到气候变化的直接和间接影响。巴基斯坦政府在2012年提出了首个国家气候变化政策(NCCP),这是一个里程碑。为应对不断变化的气候趋势,它为电力、粮食、水和卫生等脆弱部门提供了一套广泛的适应措施。2014年,制定了一个更精确的后续框架,提出了实现国家结核控制方案目标的战略。政府还与国内和国际组织和社会合作,使脆弱部门和当地社区能够抵御水资源短缺、山洪暴发、飓风和极端气温。对适应行动和系统现状的分析暴露出一些不足之处。科学家和决策者之间存在着巨大的知识鸿沟,这需要弥合。利益相关者、当地社区和相关领域的专家需要参与制定全面适应计划的政策过程。巴基斯坦的教育和研究机构缺乏预测未来气候趋势及其对该国各个部门构成的风险的专门知识和现代工具和技术。公众对气候变化和相关风险缺乏认识,也是发展气候适应型社区的一个障碍。巴基斯坦政府对有关实施部门和研究机构的政策制定和能力建设给予了应有的重视。然而,仍然需要在国家、省和市各级建立一个强有力的执法机构,以成功实施政府战略。
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引用次数: 1
Natural Hazards Governance in South Asia 南亚自然灾害治理
Pub Date : 2019-01-25 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.013.231
M. Bhatt, Kelsey M Gleason, R. Patel
South Asia is faced with a range of natural hazards, including floods, droughts, cyclones, earthquakes, landslides, and tsunamis. Rapid and unplanned urbanization, environmental degradation, climate change, and socioeconomic conditions are increasing citizens’ exposure to and risk from natural hazards and resulting in more frequent, intense, and costly disasters. Although governments and the international community are investing in disaster risk reduction, natural hazard governance in South Asian countries remain weak and often warrants a review when a major natural disaster strikes. Natural hazards governance is an emerging concept, and many countries in South Asia have a challenging hazard governance context.
南亚面临着一系列自然灾害,包括洪水、干旱、飓风、地震、山体滑坡和海啸。快速和无计划的城市化、环境退化、气候变化和社会经济状况正在增加公民对自然灾害的暴露和风险,并导致更频繁、更强烈和更昂贵的灾害。尽管各国政府和国际社会正在投资于减少灾害风险,但南亚国家的自然灾害治理仍然薄弱,在发生重大自然灾害时往往需要进行审查。自然灾害治理是一个新兴概念,南亚许多国家的灾害治理环境具有挑战性。
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引用次数: 2
Natural Hazards Governance in Nigeria 尼日利亚的自然灾害治理
Pub Date : 2019-01-25 DOI: 10.1093/ACREFORE/9780199389407.013.236
S. Onu
Nigeria, like many other countries in sub–Saharan Africa, is exposed to natural hazards and disaster events, the most prominent being soil and coastal erosion, flooding, desertification, drought, air pollution as a result of gas flaring, heat waves, deforestation, and soil degradation due to oil spillage. These events have caused serious disasters across the country. In the southeast region, flooding and gully erosion have led to the displacement of communities. In the Niger Delta region, oil exploration has destroyed the mangrove forests as well as the natural habitat for fishes and other aquatic species and flora. In northern Nigeria, desert encroachment, deforestation, and drought have adversely affected agricultural production, thereby threatening national food security. The federal government, through its agencies, has produced and adopted policies and enacted laws and regulations geared toward containing the disastrous effects of natural hazards on the environment. The federal government collaborates with international organizations, such as the World Bank, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), Center for Infectious Disease Research (CIDR), United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), United Nations High Commission for Refugees UNHCR, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), to address disaster-related problems induced by natural hazards. However, government efforts have not yielded the desired results due to interagency conflicts, corruption, low political will, and lack of manpower capacity for disaster management. There is a need for a good governance system for natural hazards prevention and reduction in the country. This will require inter-agency synergy, increased funding of agencies, capacity building, and public awareness/participation.
像撒哈拉以南非洲的许多其他国家一样,尼日利亚面临着自然灾害和灾害事件,最突出的是土壤和海岸侵蚀、洪水、荒漠化、干旱、天然气燃烧造成的空气污染、热浪、森林砍伐和石油泄漏造成的土壤退化。这些事件在全国范围内造成了严重的灾害。在东南部地区,洪水和沟壑侵蚀导致社区流离失所。在尼日尔三角洲地区,石油勘探破坏了红树林以及鱼类和其他水生物种和植物的自然栖息地。在尼日利亚北部,沙漠侵蚀、森林砍伐和干旱对农业生产产生了不利影响,从而威胁到国家粮食安全。联邦政府,通过其机构,制定和采纳了政策,并颁布了法律和法规,旨在遏制自然灾害对环境的灾难性影响。联邦政府与世界银行、国际原子能机构(IAEA)、国际农业发展基金(农发基金)、传染病研究中心(CIDR)、联合国工业发展组织(UNIDO)、联合国环境规划署(UNEP)、联合国难民事务高级专员办事处(UNHCR)和非政府组织(ngo)等国际组织合作。处理由自然灾害引起的与灾害有关的问题。然而,由于机构间的冲突、腐败、政治意愿低下以及缺乏灾害管理人力,政府的努力并没有取得预期的效果。该国需要一个良好的治理体系来预防和减少自然灾害。这将需要机构间的协同作用、增加各机构的资金、能力建设和公众的认识/参与。
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引用次数: 0
Natural Flood Risk Management 自然洪水风险管理
Pub Date : 2019-01-25 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.013.320
A. Murgatroyd, S. Dadson
Flooding is a natural hazard with the potential to cause damage at the local, national, and global scale. Flooding is a natural product of heavy precipitation and increased runoff. It may also arise from elevated groundwater tables, coastal inundation, or failed drainage systems. Flooded areas can be identified as land beyond the channel network covered by water. Although flooding can cause significant damage to urban developments and infrastructure, it may be beneficial to the natural environment. Preemptive actions may be taken to protect communities at risk of inundation that are not able to relocate to an area not at risk of flooding. Adaptation measures include flood defenses, river channel modification, relocation, and active warning systems. Natural flood management (NFM) interventions are designed to restore, emulate, or enhance catchment processes. Such interventions are common in upper reaches of the river and in areas previously transformed by agriculture and urban development. Natural techniques can be categorized into three groups: water retention through management of infiltration and overland flow, managing channel connectivity and conveyance, and floodplain conveyance and storage. NFM may alter land use, improve land management, repair river channel morphology, enhance the riparian habitat, enrich floodplain vegetation, or alter land drainage. The range of natural flood management options allows a diverse range of flood hazards to be considered. As a consequence, there is an abundance of NFM case studies from contrasting environments around the globe, each addressing a particular set of flood risks. Much of the research supporting the use of NFM highlights both the benefits and costs of working with natural processes to reduce flood hazards in the landscape. However, there is a lack of quantitative evidence of the effectiveness of measures, both individually and in combination, especially at the largest scales and for extreme floods. Most evidence is based on modeling studies and observations often relate to a specific set of upstream measures that are challenging to apply elsewhere.
洪水是一种自然灾害,有可能在地方、国家和全球范围内造成破坏。洪水是强降水和径流增加的自然产物。它也可能由地下水位升高、海岸淹没或排水系统失灵引起。被淹地区可以被确定为被水覆盖的水道网以外的土地。虽然洪水会对城市发展和基础设施造成重大破坏,但它可能对自然环境有益。可以采取先发制人的行动来保护面临洪水风险的社区,这些社区无法搬迁到没有洪水风险的地区。适应措施包括防洪、河道改造、搬迁和主动预警系统。自然洪水管理(NFM)干预措施旨在恢复、模拟或增强流域过程。这种干预措施在河流上游和以前因农业和城市发展而改变的地区很常见。自然技术可以分为三大类:通过管理渗透和地表水流来保持水,管理河道连通性和输送,以及冲积平原的输送和储存。NFM可以改变土地利用,改善土地管理,修复河道形态,增强河岸栖息地,丰富洪泛区植被,或改变土地排水。自然洪水管理方案的范围允许考虑各种各样的洪水灾害。因此,有大量来自全球不同环境的NFM案例研究,每个案例都针对一组特定的洪水风险。许多支持使用NFM的研究都强调了利用自然过程来减少景观中的洪水灾害的好处和成本。然而,缺乏量化的证据来证明单项和综合措施的有效性,特别是在最大规模和极端洪水方面。大多数证据是基于建模研究和观察,通常与一组特定的上游措施有关,这些措施很难应用于其他地方。
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引用次数: 1
Transboundary Disasters and Non-Governmental Organizations 跨界灾害和非政府组织
Pub Date : 2019-01-25 DOI: 10.1093/ACREFORE/9780199389407.013.286
Alka Sapat
In an increasingly interconnected world, the impacts of disasters and subsequent disaster relief and response operations are often no longer confined to directly affected communities, regions, or countries. Traditional geographical, sectoral, and policy-related boundaries are progressively becoming more blurred, and increasingly, there are more transboundary disasters—disasters that cross geographical, political, and functional boundaries and that affect multiple policy domains. Examples of transboundary disasters include the 2004 and 2011 tsunamis, the Fukushima nuclear disaster, the 2010 Haiti earthquake, and the Ebola outbreak. Responses to transboundary disasters typically require the concerted efforts of various governments, intergovernmental organizations, private entities, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) working together. Although NGOs have been key responders, not enough attention has been paid to their role amid the constellation of various actors responding to transboundary disasters. There are many different types of NGOs, including those that have been less visible, such as diaspora NGOs, that aid in transboundary disasters. NGO assistance in transboundary disasters assumes various forms, ranging from disaster relief in the form of medical assistance, food, water, and supplies to aid affected populations for rebuilding and reconstruction in disaster-affected areas. NGOs also play a critical role in responding to transboundary disasters by aiding displaced populations in host communities and providing an array of services—from helping find accommodations and schools to providing social support and case management services. While NGOs can be effective and trustworthy transnational players in transboundary disasters, effectively bringing in resources, their participation also has its challenges and limitations. To counter these challenges, transboundary management coordination needs to be increased, along with building capacities of transnational and local civil society organizations. The power of diaspora NGOs can also be harnessed more effectively in disaster response and recovery.
在一个日益相互联系的世界中,灾害的影响以及随后的救灾和反应行动往往不再局限于直接受影响的社区、地区或国家。传统的地理、部门和政策相关的边界正逐渐变得越来越模糊,而且越来越多的跨界灾害——跨越地理、政治和功能边界并影响多个政策领域的灾害。跨界灾难的例子包括2004年和2011年的海啸、福岛核灾难、2010年海地地震和埃博拉疫情。对跨界灾害的应对通常需要各国政府、政府间组织、私人实体和非政府组织(ngo)共同努力。虽然非政府组织一直是关键的反应者,但在应对跨界灾害的各种行动者中,它们的作用没有得到足够的重视。有许多不同类型的非政府组织,包括那些不太引人注目的非政府组织,如散居海外的非政府组织,它们在跨境灾难中提供援助。非政府组织在跨界灾害方面的援助形式多种多样,从以医疗援助、食品、水和用品为形式的救灾,到援助受灾人口在灾区进行重建和重建。非政府组织在应对跨界灾害方面也发挥着关键作用,它们援助收容社区的流离失所人口,并提供一系列服务——从帮助寻找住处和学校,到提供社会支持和个案管理服务。虽然非政府组织可以在跨界灾害中成为有效和值得信赖的跨国参与者,有效地带来资源,但它们的参与也有其挑战和局限性。为了应对这些挑战,需要加强跨界管理协调,同时建设跨国和地方民间社会组织的能力。侨民非政府组织的力量也可以在灾难应对和恢复中得到更有效的利用。
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引用次数: 2
Supporting Natural Hazards Management With Geospatial Technologies 利用地理空间技术支持自然灾害管理
Pub Date : 2019-01-25 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.013.283
Diana Mitsova
On a global scale, natural disasters continue to inflict a heavy toll on communities and to pose challenges that either persist or amplify in complexity and scale. There is a need for flexible and adaptive solutions that can bridge collaborative efforts among public agencies, private and nonprofit organizations, and communities. The ability to explore and analyze spatial data, solve problems, visualize, and communicate outcomes to support the collaborative efforts and decision-making processes of a broad range of stakeholders is critical in natural hazards and disaster management. The adoption of geospatial technologies has long been at the core of natural hazards risk assessment, linking existing technologies in GIS (geographic information system) with spatial analytical techniques and modeling. Practice and research have shown that though risk-reduction strategies and the mobilization of disaster-response resources depend on integrating governance into the process of building disaster resilience, the implementation of such strategies is best informed by accurate spatial data acquisition, fast processing, analysis, and integration with other informational resources. In recent years, new and accessible sources and types of data have greatly enhanced the ability of practitioners and researchers to develop approaches that support rapid and efficient disaster response, including forecasting, early warning systems, and damage assessments. Innovations in geospatial technologies, including remote sensing, real-time Web applications, and distributed Web-based GIS services, feature platforms for systematizing and sharing data, maps, applications, and analytics. Distributed GIS offers enormous opportunities to strengthen collaboration and improve communication and efficiency by enabling agencies and end users to connect and interact with remotely located information products, apps, and services. Newer developments in geospatial technologies include real-time data management and unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), which help organizations make rapid assessments and facilitate the decision-making process in disasters.
在全球范围内,自然灾害继续给社区造成重大损失,并构成挑战,这些挑战的复杂性和规模要么持续存在,要么扩大。需要灵活和适应性的解决方案,以便在公共机构、私人和非营利组织以及社区之间架起协作努力的桥梁。探索和分析空间数据、解决问题、可视化和交流结果的能力,以支持广泛利益相关者的协作努力和决策过程,在自然灾害和灾害管理中至关重要。地理空间技术的采用长期以来一直是自然灾害风险评估的核心,将地理信息系统(GIS)中的现有技术与空间分析技术和建模联系起来。实践和研究表明,尽管降低风险战略和动员灾害应对资源取决于将治理纳入建设抗灾能力的过程,但通过准确的空间数据获取、快速处理、分析以及与其他信息资源的整合,这些战略的实施是最好的。近年来,新的和可获取的数据来源和类型大大提高了从业人员和研究人员开发支持快速有效的灾害响应方法的能力,包括预测、预警系统和损害评估。地理空间技术的创新,包括遥感、实时Web应用和分布式基于Web的GIS服务,以系统化和共享数据、地图、应用和分析的平台为特征。分布式地理信息系统通过使机构和最终用户能够与远程定位的信息产品、应用程序和服务进行连接和交互,为加强协作、改善沟通和效率提供了巨大的机会。地理空间技术的最新发展包括实时数据管理和无人驾驶飞机系统(UAS),这有助于组织在灾害中进行快速评估和促进决策过程。
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引用次数: 0
Risk and Resilience in the Management and Governance of Natural Hazards 自然灾害管理和治理中的风险和复原力
Pub Date : 2019-01-25 DOI: 10.1093/ACREFORE/9780199389407.013.299
C. Kuhlicke
The management of natural hazards is undergoing considerable transformation, including the establishment of risk-based management approaches, the encouragement to govern natural hazards more inclusively, and the rising relevance of the concept of resilience. The benefits of this transformation are usually framed like this: Risk-based approaches are regarded as a rational way of balancing the costs associated with mitigating the consequences of hazards and the anticipated benefits; inclusive modes of governing risks help to increase the acceptance and quality of management processes as well as their outcomes; and the concept of resilience is connoted positively since it demands a greater openness to uncertainties and aims at increasing the capacities of various actors to cope with radical surprises. However, the increasing consideration of both concepts in policy and decision-making processes is associated with a changing demarcation between public and private responsibilities and with an altering relationship between organizations involved in the management process and the wider public. To understand some of these dynamics, this contribution undertakes a change of perspective throughout its development: Instead of asking how the concepts of risk or resilience might be useful to improve the management and governance of natural hazards, one must understand how societies, particularly with regard to their handling of risks and hazards, are governed through the concepts of risk and resilience. Following this perspective, risk-based management approaches have a defensive function in deflecting blame and rationalizing policy choices ex-ante by enabling managing organizations to more clearly define which risks they are responsible for (i.e., non-acceptable risks) and which are beyond their responsibility (i.e., acceptable risks). This demarcation also has profound distributional effects as acceptable risks usually need to be mitigated individually, raising the question of how to ensure the just sharing of the differently distributed benefits and burdens of risk-based approaches. The concept of resilience in this context plays a paradoxical yet complementary role: In its more operational interpretation (e.g., adaptive management), resilience-based management approaches can be in conflict with risk-based approaches as they require those responsible for managing risks to follow antagonistic goals. While the idea of resilience puts an emphasis on openness and flexibility, risk-based approaches try to ensure proportionality by transforming uncertainties into calculable risks. At the same time, resilience-based governance approaches, with their emphasis on self-organization and learning, complement risk-based approaches in the sense that actors or communities that are exposed to “acceptable risks” are implicitly or explicitly made responsible for maintaining their own resilience, whereas the role of public authorities is usually restricted to an enabling o
自然灾害的管理正在经历重大变革,包括建立基于风险的管理办法,鼓励以更包容的方式治理自然灾害,以及复原力概念日益重要。这种转变的好处通常是这样的:基于风险的方法被认为是平衡与减轻危害后果和预期利益相关的成本的合理方法;风险管理的包容性模式有助于提高管理过程及其结果的接受度和质量;弹性的概念是积极的,因为它要求对不确定性有更大的开放性,旨在提高各种行动者应对激进意外的能力。然而,在政策和决策过程中越来越多地考虑到这两个概念是与公共和私人责任之间不断变化的界限以及参与管理过程的组织与广大公众之间不断变化的关系有关的。为了理解其中的一些动态,这一贡献在其整个发展过程中需要改变观点:与其询问风险或恢复力的概念如何有助于改善自然灾害的管理和治理,人们必须了解如何通过风险和恢复力的概念来管理社会,特别是在处理风险和危害方面。按照这种观点,基于风险的管理方法具有一种防御功能,通过使管理组织能够更清楚地定义哪些风险是他们负责的(即,不可接受的风险),哪些超出了他们的责任(即,可接受的风险),从而在转移责任和事前合理化政策选择方面发挥作用。这种划分也具有深刻的分配影响,因为通常需要单独减轻可接受的风险,这就提出了如何确保公平分享基于风险的方法的不同分配的利益和负担的问题。在这种情况下,弹性的概念扮演了一个矛盾而又互补的角色:在其更具操作性的解释中(例如,适应性管理),基于弹性的管理方法可能与基于风险的方法相冲突,因为它们要求负责管理风险的人遵循对立的目标。虽然弹性的概念强调开放性和灵活性,但基于风险的方法试图通过将不确定性转化为可计算的风险来确保相称性。与此同时,基于复原力的治理方法强调自组织和学习,在某种意义上补充了基于风险的方法,即暴露于“可接受风险”的行为者或社区隐含或明确地负责维持其自身的复原力,而公共当局的作用通常仅限于使能。
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引用次数: 5
Natural Hazards Governance in Cuba 古巴的自然灾害治理
Pub Date : 2019-01-25 DOI: 10.1093/ACREFORE/9780199389407.013.238
E. Abella, B. Wisner
Natural hazard governance in Cuba elicits widely differing commentaries. While some experts praise it as an extension of state commitment to social welfare, others debate the ethics, necessity, and utility of forced evacuation. However, many disaster experts are unaware of the long-term development of disaster reduction in the country—how Cuban risk governance has evolved in a unique geopolitical and social environment. Mass mobilization to prepare for military invasion and prior response to hurricane disaster provided the foundation for Cuba’s contemporary focus on disaster risk reduction. A pragmatic analysis of the development of natural hazard governance in Cuba and its components reveals key factors for its success in protecting lives. Deployment of local risk management centers, nationwide multi-hazard risk assessment, and early warning systems are recognized as important factors for the effectiveness of disaster reduction in the country. The number of scientific organizations collecting data and carrying out research is also a factor in the reduction of disaster impact and increases the level of resiliency. Over time, an increasing number of organizations and population groups have become involved in risk governance. Risk communication is used as a tool for keeping popular risk perception at an effective level, and for encouraging effective self-protection during hazard events. The continuous development and improvement of a multilateral framework for natural hazards governance is also among the important components of disaster risk reduction in Cuba. However, the economic crisis that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union and the long-lasting U.S. government blockade have been constraints on economic development and disaster risk reduction. These geopolitical and macroeconomic realities must be recognized as the main causes of the large economic losses and slow recovery after a natural hazard impact. Nevertheless, disaster recovery is carried out at the highest level of management with the goal of reducing vulnerability as much as possible to avoid future losses. Despite economic losses due to natural disasters, Cuban governance of natural hazards is evaluated as a success by most organizations and experts worldwide.
古巴的自然灾害治理引发了广泛不同的评论。虽然一些专家称赞这是国家对社会福利承诺的延伸,但其他人对强制撤离的道德、必要性和效用进行了辩论。然而,许多灾害专家没有意识到古巴在减灾方面的长期发展——古巴的风险治理在独特的地缘政治和社会环境中是如何演变的。为准备军事入侵和事先应对飓风灾害而进行的大规模动员,为古巴当代注重减少灾害风险奠定了基础。对古巴自然灾害治理发展及其组成部分的务实分析揭示了其在保护生命方面取得成功的关键因素。部署地方风险管理中心、全国多灾害风险评估和早期预警系统被认为是该国减少灾害有效性的重要因素。收集数据和进行研究的科学组织的数量也是减少灾害影响和提高复原力水平的一个因素。随着时间的推移,越来越多的组织和人群已经参与到风险治理中。风险沟通被用作一种工具,以保持公众对风险的认知处于有效水平,并鼓励在危险事件期间进行有效的自我保护。不断发展和完善自然灾害治理的多边框架也是古巴减少灾害风险的重要组成部分之一。然而,苏联解体后的经济危机和美国政府的长期封锁制约了经济发展和减少灾害风险。必须认识到这些地缘政治和宏观经济现实是造成重大经济损失和自然灾害影响后恢复缓慢的主要原因。然而,灾害恢复是在最高管理级别进行的,其目标是尽可能减少脆弱性,以避免今后的损失。尽管自然灾害造成经济损失,但古巴对自然灾害的治理被世界上大多数组织和专家评价为成功。
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引用次数: 2
Planning Systems for Natural Hazard Risk Reduction 减少自然灾害风险的规划系统
Pub Date : 2019-01-25 DOI: 10.1093/acrefore/9780199389407.013.168
J. Schwab
Planning systems are essentially a layer of guidance or legal requirements that sit atop plans of any type at any governmental level at or below the source of that guidance. In the case of natural hazard risk reduction, they involve rules or laws dealing with plans to reduce loss of life or property from such events. In much of the world, this is either unexplored territory or the frontier of public planning; very little of what exists in this realm predates the 1980s, although one can find earlier roots of the public discussion behind such systems. That said, the evolution of such systems in 21st century has been fairly rapid, at least in those nations with the resources and technical capacity to pursue the subject. Driven largely by substantial increases in disaster losses and growing concern about worldwide impacts of climate change, research, technology, and lessons from practice have grown apace. However, that progress has been uneven and subject to inequities in resources and governmental capacity.
规划系统本质上是一层指导或法律要求,位于任何类型的计划之上,在任何政府层面或低于该指导的来源。在减少自然灾害风险的情况下,它们涉及有关减少此类事件造成的生命或财产损失的计划的规则或法律。在世界大部分地区,这要么是未开发的领域,要么是公共规划的前沿;这一领域在20世纪80年代之前存在的东西很少,尽管人们可以在这些系统背后找到更早的公共讨论根源。也就是说,这种系统在21世纪的发展相当迅速,至少在那些拥有资源和技术能力的国家是如此。在灾害损失大幅增加以及人们对气候变化的全球影响日益关注的推动下,研究、技术和实践经验得到了迅速发展。然而,这一进展是不平衡的,受制于资源和政府能力的不平等。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Natural Hazard Science
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