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The Arithmetic of Climate Change 气候变化的算术
Pub Date : 2021-08-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3906854
C. Sunstein
In its ideal form, arbitrariness review is an instrument for promoting “deliberative democracy” – a system that combines reason-giving with political accountability. Under arbitrariness review in its current form, courts tend to embrace the “hard look doctrine,” which has a procedural component, requiring agencies to offer detailed justifications, and also a substantive component, in which courts assess the reasonableness of the agencies’ choices on the merits. These are serious constraints on the executive branch, and they also reduce the risk of large-scale instability in government, in which scientific and economic judgments are overridden by political considerations. With respect to regulatory policy, it is not enough to say that “elections have consequences.” For climate change in particular, the “social cost of carbon,” or more broadly the “social cost of greenhouse gases,” is sometimes described as “the most important number you’ve never heard of.” A key reason is that within the executive branch, the stringency of regulation of greenhouse gases emissions often depends on that number. Another reason is that the social cost of carbon can and should play a role in determining the content of other kinds of initiatives, such as a carbon tax. In the United States, the relevant numbers were challenged in court under the administrations of Barack Obama (where they were upheld) and Donald Trump (where they were struck down). The litigation raises fundamental questions about the role of science, economics, and politics in judicial review of agency action, and about the relationship between courts and the administrative state. With respect to the social cost of carbon: (1) A decision to use the global number, as opposed to the domestic number, would be straightforward to defend against an arbitrariness challenge; a decision to use the domestic number, as opposed to the global number, would be difficult to defend against an arbitrariness challenge. (2) A decision to use a low discount rate, such as two percent, would be straightforward to defend against an arbitrariness challenge; a decision to use a high discount rate, such as seven percent, would be exceedingly difficult to defend against an arbitrariness challenge. (3) A wide range of decisions – involving, for example, climate sensitivity and the damage function -- raise difficult questions in science and economics; they should be straightforward to defend against an arbitrariness challenge, but only if they follow from a reasoned justification. (4) Approaches that take account of equity – including “prioritarianism” – should be defensible against an arbitrariness challenge, as should be a refusal to adopt such approaches, but here again, a reasoned justification is required. (5) A decision to “back out” a social cost of carbon, from some specific target, would be challenging to defend against an arbitrariness challenge. A general lesson, with broader implications, is that judicial review of the
在理想的情况下,任意性审查是促进“协商民主”的工具,这是一种将推理与政治问责相结合的制度。在目前形式的任意性审查下,法院倾向于接受“严格审查原则”,其中包括程序部分,要求机关提供详细的理由,以及实质性部分,其中法院根据案情评估机关选择的合理性。这些都是对行政部门的严重约束,它们也降低了政府大规模不稳定的风险,在这种情况下,科学和经济判断被政治考虑所压倒。就监管政策而言,仅仅说“选举有后果”是不够的。特别是对于气候变化,“碳排放的社会成本”,或者更广泛地说,“温室气体的社会成本”,有时被描述为“你从未听说过的最重要的数字”。一个关键原因是,在行政部门内部,温室气体排放监管的严格程度往往取决于这个数字。另一个原因是,碳排放的社会成本可以而且应该在决定其他类型倡议的内容方面发挥作用,比如碳税。在美国,相关数字在巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)和唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)两届政府的法庭上受到质疑(奥巴马支持这些数字),而特朗普的政府则否决了这些数字。该诉讼提出了有关科学、经济和政治在机构行为司法审查中的作用以及法院与行政国家之间关系的基本问题。关于碳排放的社会成本:(1)使用全球数字而不是国内数字的决定,可以直接抵御随意性挑战;使用国内号码而不是全球号码的决定,将很难抵御随意性的挑战。(2)使用低贴现率的决定,如2%,将直接抵御任意性挑战;使用高贴现率(例如7%)的决定将非常难以抵御随意性挑战。(3)范围广泛的决策——例如涉及气候敏感性和损害函数——提出了科学和经济学中的难题;它们应该是直接的,以抵御任意性挑战,但前提是它们遵循合理的理由。(4)考虑到公平的方法- -包括“优先主义”- -应该是可以对武断的挑战进行辩护的,拒绝采用这种方法也应该是可以的,但这里再次需要一个合理的理由。(5)从某个特定目标中“撤回”碳社会成本的决定,将很难抵御随意性挑战。一个具有更广泛含义的普遍教训是,对碳排放社会成本的司法审查应该(也可能会)涉及程序上的严格审查,而不是实质性的严格审查。程序上的严格审查对于防止审议和民主的失败很重要;实质性的严格审查将使司法能力紧张。
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引用次数: 0
The Constitution of Ambiguity: Is the Link between Economic Freedom and Constitutions Weaker than Thought? 模棱两可的宪法:经济自由与宪法之间的联系比想象的要弱吗?
Pub Date : 2021-08-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3906216
Ryan Murphy
This paper follows up on the work of de Vanssay et al. (2005) in examining characteristics of constitutions (e.g., parliamentary systems), using data originating from the Database of Political Institutions. With updated data, correlational findings are reproduced and extended. However, introducing almost any degree of identification draws results strongly into question. Taking the evidence together, there are rather strong reasons against placing much confidence in a causal relationship between the broader array of constitutional characteristics and economic freedom. However, it is important to note that the variables considered here do not include direct measures of democracy or civil liberties, the positive effects of which have stronger support elsewhere in the literature.
本文在de Vanssay等人(2005)研究宪法特征(如议会制)的基础上进行了后续研究,使用了来自政治制度数据库的数据。有了最新的数据,相关的发现被复制和扩展。然而,引入几乎任何程度的识别都会使结果受到强烈质疑。综合这些证据,我们有相当充分的理由不相信更广泛的宪法特征与经济自由之间存在因果关系。然而,值得注意的是,这里考虑的变量不包括民主或公民自由的直接衡量标准,它们的积极影响在其他文献中得到了更有力的支持。
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引用次数: 0
Explaining Variation in Challenges to Social Conventions: Black Political Leadership and 'Contraband Camps' in the U.S. Civil War 解释对社会习俗挑战的变化:美国内战中的黑人政治领导和“走私犯营地”
Pub Date : 2021-08-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3902116
M. Stewart, Karin E. Kitchens
What explains variation in the extent to which out-group individuals participate in behaviors that challenge existing social orders in ways that fall short of outright contentious politics? In addition to existing explanations that point to technological exposure, institutional change, or leadership attributes, we present a new and complementary explanation. We argue that more significant limitations on a dominant group's ability to police access to informal and formal institutions of power or to regulate participation in privileged activities in a given location cause higher rates of persistent out-group actions that challenge existing social orders. We test our argument using the creation of "contraband camps'' during the U.S. Civil War and Reconstruction-era Black political leadership. These camps significantly limited whites' power and control locally, while Black political leadership breached social conventions at the time. Using quantitative analyses that draw on original data collection, we find that relative to counties without such camps, counties with the camps had almost twice as many Black political leaders. Our results shed light on an understudied phenomenon in the U.S. Civil War while also contributing to research on social change.
如何解释群体外个体参与挑战现有社会秩序的行为的程度差异,这些行为的方式不是直接的有争议的政治?除了现有的解释指出技术暴露,制度变革,或领导属性,我们提出了一个新的和补充的解释。我们认为,对主导群体监督非正式和正式权力机构或规范特定地区特权活动参与的能力的更大限制,会导致挑战现有社会秩序的持续外群体行为的比例更高。我们用美国内战和重建时期黑人政治领导的“禁售营”的建立来检验我们的论点。这些营地极大地限制了白人在当地的权力和控制,而黑人的政治领导则违反了当时的社会习俗。利用原始数据收集的定量分析,我们发现,相对于没有这种营地的县,有营地的县的黑人政治领导人几乎是其两倍。我们的研究结果揭示了美国内战中一个未被充分研究的现象,同时也有助于对社会变革的研究。
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引用次数: 0
Using Name Standardisation to Track Candidate and MP Performance over Time in Papua New Guinea 在巴布亚新几内亚,使用名字标准化跟踪候选人和议员的长期表现
Pub Date : 2019-10-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3471604
Thomas Wangi, Terence Wood
This paper makes use of data from the Papua New Guinea Election Results Database. It draws on an exercise in which we standardised the spelling of candidate names to allow for intertemporal analysis. Our central research questions included: whether the share of more experienced MPs in Papua New Guinea’s parliament has increased; whether MPs who have been in power longer are more or less likely to be re-elected than newer MPs; whether the typical first-time winner in the 2012 and 2017 elections had a long history of previous candidacies; and whether women candidates perform better over time if they stand in multiple elections. We found no trend of increasing MP experience. We found third term MPs were less likely to be re-elected than first and second term, but fourth-term MPs were more likely to be re-elected. We found that, typically, winners in 2012 and 2017 had not stood many times prior to victory. And we found that female candidates tend to perform worse on average the more times they stand, although there is considerable variation amongst different candidates.
本文使用了巴布亚新几内亚选举结果数据库的数据。它借鉴了我们对候选名字的拼写进行标准化的练习,以便进行跨期分析。我们的主要研究问题包括:巴布亚新几内亚议会中经验更丰富的议员的比例是否有所增加;执政时间较长的议员是否比新上任的议员更有可能再次当选;2012年和2017年大选中典型的首次获胜者是否有长期的候选人历史;以及女性候选人在多次选举中是否会随着时间的推移表现得更好。我们没有发现MP经验增加的趋势。我们发现,第三届国会议员连任的可能性低于第一届和第二届,但第四届国会议员更有可能再次当选。我们发现,通常情况下,2012年和2017年的获胜者在获胜之前没有站过很多次。我们发现,女性候选人站的次数越多,平均表现就越差,尽管不同候选人之间存在很大差异。
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引用次数: 0
The Historical Legacy of (Pre?)Colonial Indigenous Settlements in Mexico (Pre?)的历史遗产墨西哥的土著殖民地
Pub Date : 2018-10-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3270733
Fernando Arteaga
What is the long-term impact of pre-colonial ethnic institutions? I examine the consequences of the fragmentation of local indigenous communities produced by Spanish rule in Mexico. To do this I make use of unique data from 18th century pueblos — the basis of modern-day counties — to study the institutional impact that the formation of these pueblos had on current development in Mexico. I find that after controlling for alternative mechanisms, counties encompassing more historical pueblos, are more developed, and have less poverty, but are more unequal today. The effects are more latent in places where pre-hispanic roots are deeper (historical Mesoamerica and high altitude areas), suggesting the institutional impact has a pre-colonial basis.
殖民前民族制度的长期影响是什么?我研究了西班牙在墨西哥的统治所造成的当地土著社区分裂的后果。为了做到这一点,我利用了18世纪普韦布洛人的独特数据——现代国家的基础——来研究这些普韦布洛人的形成对墨西哥当前发展的制度影响。我发现,在控制了其他机制之后,拥有更多历史悠久的普韦布洛人的县,更发达,贫困人口更少,但今天更不平等。在前西班牙人根深蒂固的地方(历史上的中美洲和高海拔地区),这种影响更为潜在,这表明这种制度影响有前殖民时期的基础。
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引用次数: 3
Chevron's Political Domain: W(h)ither Step Three? 雪佛龙的政治领域:W(h)任选第三步?
Pub Date : 2018-08-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3225524
J. Hurwitz
This essay takes prior work on Chevron in a new direction, arguing that broad deference doctrines have the largely unrecognized but particularly pernicious effect of increasing the politicization of the legislative process. Not only do Chevron and related deference doctrines affect how legislators go about the business of the Congress, but they change legislators’ understanding of what the business of Congress is. Untethered from the need to actively govern agencies that have been delegated sufficiently broad authority to keep the basic ship of state afloat, legislators refocus their attention on maintaining power for themselves and their political party. In this light, in the thirty or so years since Chevron became the law of the land, our country’s governing institutions have grown increasingly politicized: and at the risk of overstating this essay’s claim, perhaps Chevron itself, and the related embrace of broad judicial deference to the administrative state of which it is part, is in some measure responsible for our current sorry political state. This is an undesirable outcome. And, as framed here, it is not only unfortunate but also problematic on separation of powers grounds. Conversely stated, if this essay’s argument holds, separation of powers principles may offer some remedy to the harms that Chevron has worked upon to our constitutional republic. The intuition explored in this essay is that Chevron dramatically exacerbates Congress’s worst tendencies, encouraging Congress to push its legislative functions to the executive and to do so in a way that increases the politicization and polarization of American law and policy. This gives rise to a fear that Chevron effectively allows, and indeed encourages, Congress to abdicate its role as the most politically-accountable branch by deferring politically difficult questions to agencies. This argument is, at core, based in separation of powers concerns. While separation of powers concerns generally focus on preventing one branch of government from encroaching into the realm of the other branches, this essay offers a twist, arguing that Chevron’s demurral to agency interpretations encourages a Congressional abdication of its Constitutional responsibilities – and that such deference is therefore an abdication of the judiciary’s Constitutional role as a check on the problematic conduct of its sister branches.
这篇文章将先前关于雪佛龙的研究带向了一个新的方向,认为广泛的服从原则在很大程度上没有被认识到,但特别有害的影响是增加立法程序的政治化。雪佛龙和相关的尊重原则不仅影响了立法者处理国会事务的方式,而且改变了立法者对国会事务的理解。立法者不再需要积极管理那些被授予足够广泛权力以维持国家基本运转的机构,他们将注意力重新集中在维护自己和政党的权力上。从这个角度来看,在雪佛龙成为国家法律的三十多年里,我们国家的管理机构已经变得越来越政治化:并且冒着夸大本文主张的风险,也许雪佛龙本身,以及与之相关的对其所属的行政国家的广泛司法服从的接受,在某种程度上对我们目前糟糕的政治状态负有责任。这是一个不希望看到的结果。正如这里所述,这不仅是不幸的,而且在三权分立的基础上也是有问题的。反过来说,如果这篇文章的论点成立,三权分立原则可能会为雪佛龙对我们宪法共和国的伤害提供一些补救措施。这篇文章的直觉是,雪佛龙戏剧性地加剧了国会最糟糕的倾向,鼓励国会将立法职能推给行政部门,并以一种增加美国法律和政策政治化和两极分化的方式这样做。这引发了一种担忧,即雪佛龙实际上允许,甚至鼓励国会放弃其作为最具政治责任的部门的角色,将政治难题推迟给各机构。这一论点的核心是基于对三权分立的担忧。虽然权力分立的关注点通常集中在防止一个政府部门侵犯其他部门的领域,但这篇文章提供了一个转折,认为雪佛龙对机构解释的异议鼓励了国会放弃其宪法责任——因此,这种尊重是对司法机构作为检查其姊妹部门有问题行为的宪法角色的放弃。
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引用次数: 0
Transformed Human- Nature Relations: A Saga of Darjeeling under Early Colonial Dispensation 转变的人与自然关系:早期殖民统治下的大吉岭传奇
Pub Date : 2018-03-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3628086
Dr. Tahiti Sarkar
This Article focuses on the transformations of human-nature relations as a result of colonial occupation of Darjeeling in the mid nineteenth century. The study explores the applicability of the contending theses of “modes of production”, central to materialist historiography, and “modes of resource use”, central to post- colonial nationalist historiography in understanding environment, ecology and culture of colonial Darjeeling as a form of human interaction with nature. Arguments of post-colonial critical scholarship on environmental history central to continuity and change have also been tested to understand the processes of transformations of human-nature relationship in colonial Darjeeling. While making a conscious attempt to stay away from ecological determinism, this Article, nevertheless, is tied together through the rubric of ecological premises that defined and structured the socio-political history of Darjeeling. The study has attempted to discern how the pre- colonial instinctive and natural ecological concerns for Darjeeling tract were overrun and ecological premises were modified by the colonizers. This Article firmly affirms that amidst human- nature relations, Darjeeling has been a unique experience of environmental and material transformation. The study, at the end, intends to strike at the cog of the colonially evolved political economy of human-nature relationships.
本文主要探讨十九世纪中叶大吉岭的殖民统治所导致的人与自然关系的转变。本研究探讨了“生产方式”(唯物主义史学的核心)和“资源利用方式”(后殖民民族主义史学的核心)这两个相互争论的论点在理解殖民大吉岭的环境、生态和文化作为人类与自然互动的一种形式时的适用性。关于环境历史的后殖民批判学者的论点以连续性和变化为中心,也经过了测试,以理解殖民大吉岭人类与自然关系的转变过程。尽管有意识地试图远离生态决定论,但这篇文章还是通过生态前提的标题联系在一起,这些前提定义和构建了大吉岭的社会政治历史。本研究试图揭示殖民前对大吉岭地区的本能和自然生态关注是如何被殖民者超越的,以及生态前提是如何被修改的。本文坚信,在人与自然的关系中,大吉岭是一个独特的环境和物质转化的经历。最后,这项研究打算打击殖民地发展的人与自然关系的政治经济学的齿轮。
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引用次数: 0
Federal Laboratories of Democracy 联邦民主实验室
Pub Date : 2017-11-22 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3076066
H. Wiseman, D. Owen
Facilitating state policy experimentation is an oft-cited justification for the U.S. federalism system. Despite growing recognition of risk aversion, free riding, and other disincentives to state-led experimentation, the mythology of state laboratories still dominates these accounts. We propose a framework that counters this entrenched assumption and enables more productive analysis of policy experimentation. The Article explores a continuum of experimental approaches that differ in terms of the degree of experimental rigor that they incorporate — such as the extent to which they control for confounding variables — and the governance levels at which they are designed and implemented. We apply this new analytical framework to case studies from divergent policy areas, including agricultural, natural resources, and education law. These examples highlight rigorous experiments designed and largely administered by federal agencies. Our framework and case studies turn the concept of the “laboratories of the states” on its head, showing that experimentation can and often does occur at multiple levels, including the federal level. In countering and adding nuance to traditional experimentation accounts, the Article also reveals the benefits of federal involvement in policy experiments, and thus the perils of weakening federal authority in an effort to enhance core federalism values like experimentation. Federal expertise and resources — and even the simple availability of experimental platforms, such as federally-owned and managed lands — often give the federal government a comparative advantage in the policy experimentation field. This is not to say that the federal government should consistently lead and implement experiments, but it calls attention to the importance of understanding experimentation as a multi-level endeavor that extends well beyond the states.
促进州政策试验是美国联邦制的一个经常被引用的理由。尽管越来越多的人认识到风险厌恶、搭便车和其他阻碍国家主导实验的因素,但国家实验室的神话仍然主导着这些说法。我们提出了一个框架来反驳这种根深蒂固的假设,并使对政策实验的分析更有成效。本文探讨了一系列实验方法,这些方法在它们所包含的实验严格程度(例如它们对混杂变量的控制程度)以及它们设计和实施的治理水平方面有所不同。我们将这一新的分析框架应用于不同政策领域的案例研究,包括农业、自然资源和教育法。这些例子突出了严格的实验设计和主要由联邦机构管理。我们的框架和案例研究颠覆了“各州实验室”的概念,表明实验可以而且经常发生在多个层面,包括联邦层面。在反驳和补充传统实验理论的同时,该条款还揭示了联邦政府参与政策实验的好处,从而揭示了削弱联邦权威以增强实验等联邦主义核心价值观的危险。联邦政府的专业知识和资源——甚至是简单可用的实验平台,如联邦拥有和管理的土地——往往使联邦政府在政策实验领域具有比较优势。这并不是说联邦政府应该始终领导和实施实验,但它提醒人们注意,将实验理解为一种多层次努力的重要性,这种努力远远超出了各州的范围。
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引用次数: 3
Montesquieu e la scienza giuridica italiana (Montesquieu and Italian Legal Science)
Pub Date : 2017-06-28 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.2994045
Antonio Merlino
Italian Abstract: Secondo Giovanni Tarello, Montesquieu e stato un precursore dell’illuminismo giuridico e il fondatore del principio della teoria della tripartizione dei poteri in esecutivo, legislative e giudiziario. Inoltre, egli avrebbe subordinato quest’ultimo al potere legislativo, definendo il giudice la «bocca della legge», che ripete, meccanicamente, la volonta del legislatore. In questo scritto propongo delle interpretazioni alternative. Secondo altri interpreti italiani, la teoria della separazione dei poteri non deve essere interpretata come una teoria astratta e razionale, avente lo scopo di separare i poteri e di assoggettare i giudici alla parola della legge. Al contrario, Montesquieu avrebbe cercato di limitare il potere pubblico attraverso un modello di sovranita divisa. Seguendo questa chiave di lettura il potere giudiziario in Montesquieu e un contropotere che limita il potere legislativo interpretando lo «spirito» dell’ordinamento giuridico prima che la «lettera» della legge. English Abstract: According to Giovanni Tarello, Montesquieu was a forerunner of the legal enlightenment. He is believed to have formulated the theory of the tripartition of state powers into executive, legislative, and judicial branches. Moreover, he is supposed to have subordinated the judicial to the legislative power (the judges should therefore be merely the “mouth of the law” and limit themselves to the mechanical application of the legislator’s will). In this paper I will suggest other interpretations. In the view of other Italian scholars, the theory of the separation of powers should not be seen as subjecting the judiciary to the legislative branch. On the contrary, Montesquieu can be understood as having intended to limit public power through the division of sovereignty, whereby judges set boundaries on the wielding of political power by interpreting the spirit rather than merely the letter of the law.
意大利摘要:根据约翰·塔雷洛的说法,孟德斯鸠是法律启蒙运动的先驱,也是行政、立法和司法权力分立理论原则的创始人。此外,他将法院置于立法权之下,称法院为“法律之口”,机械地重复立法者的意愿。在这篇文章中,我提出了其他的解释。其他意大利人认为,三权分立理论不应被解释为一种抽象和理性的理论,其目的是分离权力并使法官服从法律的话语。相反,孟德斯鸠试图通过分裂主权的模式来限制公共权力。根据这一解释,孟德斯鸠的司法机构是一种制衡,它通过在法律“文字”之前解释法律秩序的“精神”来限制立法权。孟德斯鸠是法律义务的先驱。他相信,他必须在行政、立法和司法部门中确立国家三权分立的理论。Moreover,他应该把司法置于立法权力之下。在这篇文章中,我将推荐其他的解释。在其他意大利学者的观点中,权力分离的理论不应被视为将司法问题提交立法部门。在相反的情况下,孟德斯鸠可以被理解为有意限制公共权力通过颠覆性的部门,司法部门对解释精神比仅仅阅读法律信函更严格的政治权力的限制。
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引用次数: 2
Can It Happen Here?: Donald Trump and the Paradox of Populist Government 它能在这里发生吗?:唐纳德·特朗普和民粹主义政府的悖论
Pub Date : 2017-06-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2893251
E. Posner
Donald Trump campaigned as a populist but how can a populist who blames the “establishment” for the country’s failures, rule, when the government bureaucracy is itself a creature of the establishment? The answer that appears to be emerging is a “personalist” style of leadership that may be popular in the short term but is unlikely to achieve any of Trump’s goals. If Trump wants to be effective, he will need to adopt a bureaucratic style of governance that will, however, require him to rely on the elites he has disparaged, disappointing his followers, converting him into a conventional president, and very likely ruling out the type of authoritarian regime that Trump’s critics fear.
唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)以民粹主义者的身份竞选,但当政府官僚机构本身就是建制派的产物时,一个把国家的失败归咎于“建制派”的民粹主义者怎么能执政呢?似乎正在出现的答案是一种“个人主义”的领导风格,这种风格可能在短期内受到欢迎,但不太可能实现特朗普的任何目标。如果特朗普想要有效,他将需要采取官僚主义的治理风格,然而,这将要求他依赖他所贬低的精英,让他的追随者失望,把他变成一个传统的总统,并且很可能排除特朗普的批评者所担心的那种专制政权。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
AARN: State & Non-State Political Organization (Sub-Topic)
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