Pub Date : 2020-06-17DOI: 10.31406/relap2020.v14.i12.n27.3
O. Rojas, José Luis Castrejón Caballero
En este articulo presentamos los resultados de un estudio sobre el inicio de la vida sexual en Mexico, con la finalidad de detectar posibles cambios en su calendario y, en las circunstancias en las que se lleva a cabo, identificar distintos patrones de ocurrencia por cohortes para dar cuenta de los factores sociodemograficos que pueden ser predictores de esta experiencia. Con datos de la Encuesta Demografica Retrospectiva (EDER) 2017 y mediante diversas tecnicas estadisticas, obtuvimos resultados que confirman que en las cohortes mas jovenes estudiadas se registra un ligero adelanto en la edad de iniciacion sexual. Observamos ademas notorias diferencias en las circunstancias en las que hombres y mujeres experimentan esta transicion al considerar el tipo de localidad de residencia y el estrato social de origen. Constatamos tambien que en Mexico sigue vigente un doble estandar de iniciacion sexual marcado por el genero. Finalmente, encontramos que la corresidencia en el hogar de los padres es un factor protector para hombres y mujeres, mientras que la asistencia a la escuela lo es para el caso femenino. En contraste, dejar la escuela, estar trabajando y haberse unido son fuertes predictores del riesgo de iniciarse sexualmente.
{"title":"El inicio de la vida sexual en México. Un análisis de los cambios en el tiempo y las diferencias sociales","authors":"O. Rojas, José Luis Castrejón Caballero","doi":"10.31406/relap2020.v14.i12.n27.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31406/relap2020.v14.i12.n27.3","url":null,"abstract":"En este articulo presentamos los resultados de un estudio sobre el inicio de la vida sexual en Mexico, con la finalidad de detectar posibles cambios en su calendario y, en las circunstancias en las que se lleva a cabo, identificar distintos patrones de ocurrencia por cohortes para dar cuenta de los factores sociodemograficos que pueden ser predictores de esta experiencia. Con datos de la Encuesta Demografica Retrospectiva (EDER) 2017 y mediante diversas tecnicas estadisticas, obtuvimos resultados que confirman que en las cohortes mas jovenes estudiadas se registra un ligero adelanto en la edad de iniciacion sexual. Observamos ademas notorias diferencias en las circunstancias en las que hombres y mujeres experimentan esta transicion al considerar el tipo de localidad de residencia y el estrato social de origen. Constatamos tambien que en Mexico sigue vigente un doble estandar de iniciacion sexual marcado por el genero. Finalmente, encontramos que la corresidencia en el hogar de los padres es un factor protector para hombres y mujeres, mientras que la asistencia a la escuela lo es para el caso femenino. En contraste, dejar la escuela, estar trabajando y haberse unido son fuertes predictores del riesgo de iniciarse sexualmente.","PeriodicalId":30944,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion","volume":"14 1","pages":"77-114"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2020-06-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46181644","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-04-02DOI: 10.31406/RELAP2020.V14.I2.N27.1
Nuria Pena
Este articulo analiza las formas en las que se organiza el cuidado de adultos mayores paraguayos con especial foco en areas rurales y en aquellas familias cuyos hijos han migrado a Argentina. Como insumo principal se analizan entrevistas y observaciones de un trabajo de campo binacional. Se examinan practicas de cuidados en espacios colectivos y recursos diferenciados a los que acceden las familias transnacionales. La investigacion concluye que, en contextos de aislamiento y escasos apoyos estatales, la participacion en familias trasnacionales mejora las condiciones de vida de adultos mayores en Paraguay rural. Ademas, reflexiona en torno a la necesidad de avanzar hacia modelos conceptuales adecuados que faciliten avanzar en el desarrollo de politicas nacionales y transnacionales que garanticen responsabilidades publicas en el cuidado de adultos mayores.
{"title":"El cuidado de adultos mayores en Paraguay: estrategias colectivas y circulación de cuidados en familias transnacionales","authors":"Nuria Pena","doi":"10.31406/RELAP2020.V14.I2.N27.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31406/RELAP2020.V14.I2.N27.1","url":null,"abstract":"Este articulo analiza las formas en las que se organiza el cuidado de adultos mayores paraguayos con especial foco en areas rurales y en aquellas familias cuyos hijos han migrado a Argentina. Como insumo principal se analizan entrevistas y observaciones de un trabajo de campo binacional. Se examinan practicas de cuidados en espacios colectivos y recursos diferenciados a los que acceden las familias transnacionales. La investigacion concluye que, en contextos de aislamiento y escasos apoyos estatales, la participacion en familias trasnacionales mejora las condiciones de vida de adultos mayores en Paraguay rural. Ademas, reflexiona en torno a la necesidad de avanzar hacia modelos conceptuales adecuados que faciliten avanzar en el desarrollo de politicas nacionales y transnacionales que garanticen responsabilidades publicas en el cuidado de adultos mayores.","PeriodicalId":30944,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion","volume":"14 1","pages":"5-40"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2020-04-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49008745","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-20Epub Date: 2019-12-19DOI: 10.31406/relap2020.v14.i1.n26.1
Malena Monteverde, Alberto Palloni, Montserrat Guillen, Silvia Tomas
Two aspects of the ageing process in Latin America should be specially taken into account in order to evaluate future perspectives of morbidity among the elderly in the region: 1) Cohorts who will compose the bulk of the elderly population in the 21st century in Latin America survived to old age largely because of improvements in medicine and to a much lesser extent to amelioration of living standards, as is the case in high income countries; 2) a high proportion of the Latin American population still live in poor economic conditions and even these vulnerable individuals continue to experience gains in (adult and older adult) survival. We aim to evaluate to what an extent recent levels of poverty and indigence among young children in Argentina could impact future levels of disability and demands for long-term care of older people. Our results show that given the levels of poverty and indigence in childhood observed between 1988 and 1994 and given the relationship between poor early conditions and the risk of being disabled among the elderly in Argentina, life expectancy with disability at age 60 old would increase substantially between 2000 and 2040 both in absolute and relative terms.
{"title":"Early Poverty and Future Life Expectancy with Disability among the Elderly in Argentina: Pobreza Temprana y Esperanza de Vida Futura con Discapacidad entre los Adultos Mayores de la Argentina.","authors":"Malena Monteverde, Alberto Palloni, Montserrat Guillen, Silvia Tomas","doi":"10.31406/relap2020.v14.i1.n26.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31406/relap2020.v14.i1.n26.1","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Two aspects of the ageing process in Latin America should be specially taken into account in order to evaluate future perspectives of morbidity among the elderly in the region: 1) Cohorts who will compose the bulk of the elderly population in the 21st century in Latin America survived to old age largely because of improvements in medicine and to a much lesser extent to amelioration of living standards, as is the case in high income countries; 2) a high proportion of the Latin American population still live in poor economic conditions and even these vulnerable individuals continue to experience gains in (adult and older adult) survival. We aim to evaluate to what an extent recent levels of poverty and indigence among young children in Argentina could impact future levels of disability and demands for long-term care of older people. Our results show that given the levels of poverty and indigence in childhood observed between 1988 and 1994 and given the relationship between poor early conditions and the risk of being disabled among the elderly in Argentina, life expectancy with disability at age 60 old would increase substantially between 2000 and 2040 both in absolute and relative terms.</p>","PeriodicalId":30944,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion","volume":"14 26","pages":"5-22"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2020-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8681878/pdf/nihms-1755406.pdf","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"39739513","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-20DOI: 10.31406/RELAP2021.V15.I1.N28.2
Gabriela Marise De Oliveira Bonifácio, Laura Lídia Rodriguez Wong
The paper presents the evolution of the reproductive pattern of different Latin American countries with different levels of fertility; the objective is to understand whether the Region is acquiring homogeneity in terms of reproductive behavior. Indicators of this pattern are the proportion of childless women, the median age at first marriage and first child, and the presence of child when using contraception for the first time. The data come from reproductive health surveys from Brazil, Colombia, El Salvador, Peru, and the Dominican Republic at three points on time: the 1980s and 1990s, and the early 2000s according to age and education. Results show that differences are narrowing across countries as well as the fertility levels, but gaps within the country remain. The results offer important inputs to understand the paths outlined by different generations in the countries of the Region regarding the reproductive pattern.
{"title":"O caminho da saúde sexual e reprodutiva na América Latina: uma análise temporal de indicadores para cinco países da Região","authors":"Gabriela Marise De Oliveira Bonifácio, Laura Lídia Rodriguez Wong","doi":"10.31406/RELAP2021.V15.I1.N28.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31406/RELAP2021.V15.I1.N28.2","url":null,"abstract":"The paper presents the evolution of the reproductive pattern of different Latin American countries with different levels of fertility; the objective is to understand whether the Region is acquiring homogeneity in terms of reproductive behavior. Indicators of this pattern are the proportion of childless women, the median age at first marriage and first child, and the presence of child when using contraception for the first time. The data come from reproductive health surveys from Brazil, Colombia, El Salvador, Peru, and the Dominican Republic at three points on time: the 1980s and 1990s, and the early 2000s according to age and education. Results show that differences are narrowing across countries as well as the fertility levels, but gaps within the country remain. The results offer important inputs to understand the paths outlined by different generations in the countries of the Region regarding the reproductive pattern.","PeriodicalId":30944,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion","volume":"15 1","pages":"5-29"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2020-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43244376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-20DOI: 10.31406/RELAP2021.V15.I1.N28.7
Mario Martínez Salgado, Sabrina Ferraris
A lo largo de la historia, las normas hegemonicas de lo que es ser mujer y ser hombre se van construyendo y reconstruyendo continuamente acorde a una matriz heterosexual, cristalizada en la division sexual del trabajo. En este marco, el objetivo del articulo es describir la forma en que las mujeres y los hombres mexicanos construyen sus trayectorias de sostenimiento economico del hogar a lo largo del curso de vida. A partir del tipo de empleo y los periodos donde son el principal sosten economico del hogar, utilizamos un analisis de secuencias por alineacion optima para determinar que tipo de trayectorias se siguen, como varian entre generaciones, y si existen diferencias por sectores sociales y regiones del pais.
{"title":"Género y trabajo. El sostenimiento económico de los hogares en México","authors":"Mario Martínez Salgado, Sabrina Ferraris","doi":"10.31406/RELAP2021.V15.I1.N28.7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31406/RELAP2021.V15.I1.N28.7","url":null,"abstract":"A lo largo de la historia, las normas hegemonicas de lo que es ser mujer y ser hombre se van construyendo y reconstruyendo continuamente acorde a una matriz heterosexual, cristalizada en la division sexual del trabajo. En este marco, el objetivo del articulo es describir la forma en que las mujeres y los hombres mexicanos construyen sus trayectorias de sostenimiento economico del hogar a lo largo del curso de vida. A partir del tipo de empleo y los periodos donde son el principal sosten economico del hogar, utilizamos un analisis de secuencias por alineacion optima para determinar que tipo de trayectorias se siguen, como varian entre generaciones, y si existen diferencias por sectores sociales y regiones del pais.","PeriodicalId":30944,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion","volume":"15 1","pages":"179-204"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2020-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45533027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-20DOI: 10.31406/RELAP2021.V15.I1.N28.8
I. Espino, A. Hermeto, Luciana Luz
Este articulo explora el papel de los cambios en la estructura familiar y los arreglos de vivienda en la configuracion de la distribucion del ingreso en Guatemala utilizando datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Condiciones de Vida (ENCOVI), 2000 y 2014. Para tal fin, se propone una tipologia de hogares de 12 grupos que incluye una dimension de genero, la cual resulto ser util para mostrar la diversidad de los hogares guatemaltecos y como los mismos han cambiado durante estos 14 anos. Se observan modestas pero relevantes tendencias, como una disminucion de las parejas con hijos menores de 15 anos, un aumento de las familias de tres generaciones y un aumento de los hogares unipersonales y las familias monoparentales. Los resultados sugieren que la distancia “dentro de los grupos” es mas importante en la distribucion del ingreso de los hogares. En consecuencia, las tendencias en la estructura familiar y los arreglos de vivienda asociados con la disminucion de las tasas de fecundidad y el envejecimiento de la poblacion, no parecen haber contribuido a los cambios en la desigualdad del ingreso experimentado por Guatemala durante el periodo 2000-2014.
{"title":"Family structure, living arrangements and income inequality in Guatemala between 2000 and 2014","authors":"I. Espino, A. Hermeto, Luciana Luz","doi":"10.31406/RELAP2021.V15.I1.N28.8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31406/RELAP2021.V15.I1.N28.8","url":null,"abstract":"Este articulo explora el papel de los cambios en la estructura familiar y los arreglos de vivienda en la configuracion de la distribucion del ingreso en Guatemala utilizando datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Condiciones de Vida (ENCOVI), 2000 y 2014. Para tal fin, se propone una tipologia de hogares de 12 grupos que incluye una dimension de genero, la cual resulto ser util para mostrar la diversidad de los hogares guatemaltecos y como los mismos han cambiado durante estos 14 anos. Se observan modestas pero relevantes tendencias, como una disminucion de las parejas con hijos menores de 15 anos, un aumento de las familias de tres generaciones y un aumento de los hogares unipersonales y las familias monoparentales. Los resultados sugieren que la distancia “dentro de los grupos” es mas importante en la distribucion del ingreso de los hogares. En consecuencia, las tendencias en la estructura familiar y los arreglos de vivienda asociados con la disminucion de las tasas de fecundidad y el envejecimiento de la poblacion, no parecen haber contribuido a los cambios en la desigualdad del ingreso experimentado por Guatemala durante el periodo 2000-2014.","PeriodicalId":30944,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion","volume":"15 1","pages":"205-230"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2020-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49400040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-20DOI: 10.31406/RELAP2021.V15.I1.N28.3
Florencia Molinatti
Cordoba, like other cities in Argentina and the world, expands its territory faster than its population. As consequence, its gross residential density has fallen by 1% annually in the last twenty-five years. In this context, the emergence of gated communities on the periphery is consolidated as the predominant land use in this new urbanization model, which is dominated by polarization and socio-spatial fragmentation, as result of the valuation of developable land. The goal of this paper is to provide new evidence on the socioeconomic residential segregation phenomenon —based on the variable average years of schooling of the householders— in the Cordoba Metropolitan Region in 2010. This research also observes the modalities in which the phenomenon operates in this new model of urbanization. Finally, it explores the phenomenon that occurs within the municipalities that make up its metropolitan area.
{"title":"Segregación residencial en la Región Metropolitana de Córdoba en el nuevo modelo de urbanización en Argentina: Censos 2001 y 2010","authors":"Florencia Molinatti","doi":"10.31406/RELAP2021.V15.I1.N28.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31406/RELAP2021.V15.I1.N28.3","url":null,"abstract":"Cordoba, like other cities in Argentina and the world, expands its territory faster than its population. As consequence, its gross residential density has fallen by 1% annually in the last twenty-five years. In this context, the emergence of gated communities on the periphery is consolidated as the predominant land use in this new urbanization model, which is dominated by polarization and socio-spatial fragmentation, as result of the valuation of developable land. The goal of this paper is to provide new evidence on the socioeconomic residential segregation phenomenon —based on the variable average years of schooling of the householders— in the Cordoba Metropolitan Region in 2010. This research also observes the modalities in which the phenomenon operates in this new model of urbanization. Finally, it explores the phenomenon that occurs within the municipalities that make up its metropolitan area.","PeriodicalId":30944,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion","volume":"15 1","pages":"63-101"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2020-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48107525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-18DOI: 10.31406/RELAP2021.V15.I1.N28.5
Fernando Berriel, Carolina A. Guidotti Gonzalez
The Second Plan for Aging and Old Age, 2016-2019, was approved in November 2016 in Uruguay, which aims to develop further the perspective of integrality and rights of the elderly. This paper presents a thematic analysis of the plan and focuses on identifying its argumentative logic, its main approach, plus its meanings on aging, old age, and the elderly. As researches, we assume that the formulation of policies and the rhetorical logic of the documents are social practices that produce reality. In addition, we analyzed the level of interdisciplinarity expressed on the plan: the greater or lesser disciplinary hegemony on it. Lastly, we made some considerations about the role of the disciplines in shaping public policies on aging and old age in the country.
{"title":"Lógica argumental de las políticas sobre envejecimiento y vejez en Uruguay: producción de sentido, tensiones y hegemonías","authors":"Fernando Berriel, Carolina A. Guidotti Gonzalez","doi":"10.31406/RELAP2021.V15.I1.N28.5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31406/RELAP2021.V15.I1.N28.5","url":null,"abstract":"The Second Plan for Aging and Old Age, 2016-2019, was approved in November 2016 in Uruguay, which aims to develop further the perspective of integrality and rights of the elderly. This paper presents a thematic analysis of the plan and focuses on identifying its argumentative logic, its main approach, plus its meanings on aging, old age, and the elderly. As researches, we assume that the formulation of policies and the rhetorical logic of the documents are social practices that produce reality. In addition, we analyzed the level of interdisciplinarity expressed on the plan: the greater or lesser disciplinary hegemony on it. Lastly, we made some considerations about the role of the disciplines in shaping public policies on aging and old age in the country.","PeriodicalId":30944,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion","volume":"15 1","pages":"135-159"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2020-01-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42482425","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-01-01DOI: 10.31406/RELAP2021.V15.I2.N29.2
D. Fernandes, J. Peixoto, A. Oltramari
This paper analyzes the most recent flow of Brazilians to Portugal, which started in 2015 and ended abruptly in early 2020, with the Covid-19 pandemic. This flow was, perhaps, the most voluminous and varied of those that involved Brazilians in the last decades, being also the briefest. Its recent nature and the scarcity of other studies on the subject make it difficult to read thoroughly. Therefore, the purpose of this text is to mobilize and interpret various statistical sources, as well as to disseminate the results of some interviews conducted between August 2019 and January 2020, with institutional representatives and around forty immigrants. The combination of statistical information with the interviews allows picturing a portrait of the new movements.
{"title":"A quarta onda da imigração brasileira em Portugal: uma história breve","authors":"D. Fernandes, J. Peixoto, A. Oltramari","doi":"10.31406/RELAP2021.V15.I2.N29.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31406/RELAP2021.V15.I2.N29.2","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes the most recent flow of Brazilians to Portugal, which started in 2015 and ended abruptly in early 2020, with the Covid-19 pandemic. This flow was, perhaps, the most voluminous and varied of those that involved Brazilians in the last decades, being also the briefest. Its recent nature and the scarcity of other studies on the subject make it difficult to read thoroughly. Therefore, the purpose of this text is to mobilize and interpret various statistical sources, as well as to disseminate the results of some interviews conducted between August 2019 and January 2020, with institutional representatives and around forty immigrants. The combination of statistical information with the interviews allows picturing a portrait of the new movements.","PeriodicalId":30944,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion","volume":"15 1","pages":"34-63"},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69760591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-12-22DOI: 10.31406/relap2021.v15.i1.n28.6
Gerardo Núñez Medina
El trabajo busca modelar la distribución de la tasa de incidencia acumulada de COVID-19 en los municipios de México a través del ajuste de tres modelos lineales generalizados (en competencia) con efectos espaciales y temporales y función de enlace Poisson. Se utilizaron datos de casos confirmados de COVID-19, reportados por la Secretaría de Salud de febrero a julio de 2020. Con el objetivo de reducir los costos computacionales asociados a la estimación de múltiples parámetros, con grandes cantidades de datos, se optó por utilizar la aproximación integrada anidada de Laplace en lenguaje R (R-INLA). Los modelos fueron evaluados a través del criterio de información Akaike (AIC), donde el mejor resultó ser el Modelo No Paramétrico de Interacción Espacio-Temporal. Los resultados permiten confirmar la presencia de importantes niveles de heterogeneidad en la distribución espacio-temporal de las tasas de incidencia de COVID-19 entre municipios de México.
{"title":"Modelación bayesiana de patrones espacio-temporales de la incidencia acumulada de COVID-19 en municipios de México","authors":"Gerardo Núñez Medina","doi":"10.31406/relap2021.v15.i1.n28.6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31406/relap2021.v15.i1.n28.6","url":null,"abstract":"El trabajo busca modelar la distribución de la tasa de incidencia acumulada de COVID-19 en los municipios de México a través del ajuste de tres modelos lineales generalizados (en competencia) con efectos espaciales y temporales y función de enlace Poisson. Se utilizaron datos de casos confirmados de COVID-19, reportados por la Secretaría de Salud de febrero a julio de 2020. Con el objetivo de reducir los costos computacionales asociados a la estimación de múltiples parámetros, con grandes cantidades de datos, se optó por utilizar la aproximación integrada anidada de Laplace en lenguaje R (R-INLA). Los modelos fueron evaluados a través del criterio de información Akaike (AIC), donde el mejor resultó ser el Modelo No Paramétrico de Interacción Espacio-Temporal. Los resultados permiten confirmar la presencia de importantes niveles de heterogeneidad en la distribución espacio-temporal de las tasas de incidencia de COVID-19 entre municipios de México.","PeriodicalId":30944,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2019-12-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42685506","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}