Pub Date : 2017-12-29DOI: 10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I2.N21.7
L. Lima, Valdeniz da Silva Cruz Junior
O presente artigo analisou a associacao entre a ocorrencia de acidentes de trânsito e fatores demograficos e comportamentais para o Brasil. Utilizou-se a base de dados da Pesquisa Nacional de Saude (PNS) 2013, tendo sido analisados 26.754 casos de condutores de carro e motocicleta de 18 anos ou mais de idade. Por meio de modelos de regressao de Poisson foram estimadas razoes de prevalencia (RP) para tres modelos multivariados. Entre os principais resultados, verificou-se que apenas a escolaridade do condutor nao alcancou significância estatistica em nenhum dos modelos multivariados, sendo observados tambem diferenciais entre homens e mulheres no efeito do habito de beber e dirigir sobre a ocorrencia de acidentes de trânsito.
{"title":"Fatores associados à ocorrência de acidentes de trânsito no Brasil em 2013","authors":"L. Lima, Valdeniz da Silva Cruz Junior","doi":"10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I2.N21.7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I2.N21.7","url":null,"abstract":"O presente artigo analisou a associacao entre a ocorrencia de acidentes de trânsito e fatores demograficos e comportamentais para o Brasil. Utilizou-se a base de dados da Pesquisa Nacional de Saude (PNS) 2013, tendo sido analisados 26.754 casos de condutores de carro e motocicleta de 18 anos ou mais de idade. Por meio de modelos de regressao de Poisson foram estimadas razoes de prevalencia (RP) para tres modelos multivariados. Entre os principais resultados, verificou-se que apenas a escolaridade do condutor nao alcancou significância estatistica em nenhum dos modelos multivariados, sendo observados tambem diferenciais entre homens e mulheres no efeito do habito de beber e dirigir sobre a ocorrencia de acidentes de trânsito.","PeriodicalId":30944,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2017-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47513276","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-12-29DOI: 10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I2.N21.6
Albano Blas Vergara Parra
En el presente articulo se realiza una contribucion a los estudios de la problematica habitacional en la Region Metropolitana Buenos Aires y su evolucion reciente. En el trabajo se realiza una estimacion del deficit habitacional mediante las fuentes de informacion del censo 2001 y 2010, se caracteriza la evolucion de la poblacion con necesidades de vivienda a partir de su situacion habitacional y se analiza la distribucion territorial de los hogares con deficit habitacional. En el articulo se pone en evidencia que las mejorias habitacionales ocurridas durante el periodo 2001-2010 no se materializaron de manera homogenea tanto en el conjunto de los hogares con deficit habitacional, asi como tampoco en el conjunto del territorio. Si bien un analisis general sugiere una leve mejora durante el ultimo decenio, al momento de descomponer los datos y desagregarlos espacialmente se observa el agravamiento de situaciones habitacionales en varios territorios y franjas de la poblacion.
{"title":"El problema habitacional y su evolución reciente en la Región Metropolitana Buenos Aires: avances y retrocesos entre 2001 y 2010","authors":"Albano Blas Vergara Parra","doi":"10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I2.N21.6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I2.N21.6","url":null,"abstract":"En el presente articulo se realiza una contribucion a los estudios de la problematica habitacional en la Region Metropolitana Buenos Aires y su evolucion reciente. En el trabajo se realiza una estimacion del deficit habitacional mediante las fuentes de informacion del censo 2001 y 2010, se caracteriza la evolucion de la poblacion con necesidades de vivienda a partir de su situacion habitacional y se analiza la distribucion territorial de los hogares con deficit habitacional. En el articulo se pone en evidencia que las mejorias habitacionales ocurridas durante el periodo 2001-2010 no se materializaron de manera homogenea tanto en el conjunto de los hogares con deficit habitacional, asi como tampoco en el conjunto del territorio. Si bien un analisis general sugiere una leve mejora durante el ultimo decenio, al momento de descomponer los datos y desagregarlos espacialmente se observa el agravamiento de situaciones habitacionales en varios territorios y franjas de la poblacion.","PeriodicalId":30944,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2017-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43658687","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-12-29DOI: 10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I2.N21.5
Maria Carolina Tomás
This article focuses on the following question: How would interracial marriage rates change when considering the racial distribution of the local marriage market? I used data from the Brazilian Census for the years 1991 and 2000 and loglinear models. The results show that homogamy-heterogamy rates have traditionally been overestimated, as demonstrated by a change between 15.3 percent to 43.16 percent, when the local racial distribution of spouses is considered. The gap between the percentage differences is smaller in 2000 than in 1991. When analyzing the homogamy-heterogamy rates for each marriage market, one observes that the interaction between a spouse’s race and the marriage market is important, with very few exceptions. In addition, although most mesoregions have homogamy-heterogamy rates equal to the average level, there are some important regional differences, especially in the South, where the levels are higher than the average.
{"title":"Space and Interracial Marriage: How Does the Racial Distribution of a Local Marriage Market Change the Analysis of Interracial Marriage in Brazil?","authors":"Maria Carolina Tomás","doi":"10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I2.N21.5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I2.N21.5","url":null,"abstract":"This article focuses on the following question: How would interracial marriage rates change when considering the racial distribution of the local marriage market? I used data from the Brazilian Census for the years 1991 and 2000 and loglinear models. The results show that homogamy-heterogamy rates have traditionally been overestimated, as demonstrated by a change between 15.3 percent to 43.16 percent, when the local racial distribution of spouses is considered. The gap between the percentage differences is smaller in 2000 than in 1991. When analyzing the homogamy-heterogamy rates for each marriage market, one observes that the interaction between a spouse’s race and the marriage market is important, with very few exceptions. In addition, although most mesoregions have homogamy-heterogamy rates equal to the average level, there are some important regional differences, especially in the South, where the levels are higher than the average.","PeriodicalId":30944,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2017-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42536393","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-12-29DOI: 10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I2.N21.4
Elsa Ortiz-Ávila, Daniel Devolder
En general, en los estudios que pretenden explicar el efecto de la educacion sobre los comportamientos relacionados con la transicion a la vida adulta, la variable mas utilizada es el nivel educativo mas alto alcanzado al momento de la entrevista. Desafortunadamente, esto lleva a simplificar en extremo la trayectoria educativa de las personas y no permite conocer con certeza el momento exacto en que terminaron sus estudios, si lo hicieron de forma satisfactoria y si tuvieron periodos de interrupcion en su ciclo educativo. En este sentido, en este trabajo investigamos cuales son algunas de las problematicas derivadas de tener el historial educativo incompleto cuando analizamos eventos de la transicion a la vida adulta como la salida de casa de los padres, la primera union y la primera maternidad. Para el analisis empirico utilizamos del conjunto de Encuestas de Fecundidad y Familia (FFS por sus siglas en ingles) para cuatro paises: Austria, Letonia, Suecia y Espana.
{"title":"La ausencia del historial educativo en el análisis de eventos relacionados con la transición a la vida adulta","authors":"Elsa Ortiz-Ávila, Daniel Devolder","doi":"10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I2.N21.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I2.N21.4","url":null,"abstract":"En general, en los estudios que pretenden explicar el efecto de la educacion sobre los comportamientos relacionados con la transicion a la vida adulta, la variable mas utilizada es el nivel educativo mas alto alcanzado al momento de la entrevista. Desafortunadamente, esto lleva a simplificar en extremo la trayectoria educativa de las personas y no permite conocer con certeza el momento exacto en que terminaron sus estudios, si lo hicieron de forma satisfactoria y si tuvieron periodos de interrupcion en su ciclo educativo. En este sentido, en este trabajo investigamos cuales son algunas de las problematicas derivadas de tener el historial educativo incompleto cuando analizamos eventos de la transicion a la vida adulta como la salida de casa de los padres, la primera union y la primera maternidad. Para el analisis empirico utilizamos del conjunto de Encuestas de Fecundidad y Familia (FFS por sus siglas en ingles) para cuatro paises: Austria, Letonia, Suecia y Espana.","PeriodicalId":30944,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2017-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47449931","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-12-23DOI: 10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I1.N20.4
Nicolas Sacco, Lucia Andreozzi
The goal of this article is to model and project fertility rates by age in Argentina, using vital statistics (1980-2014), population estimates,censuses, and previous estimates of fertility rates by age available for the 1955-1980 period. Using functional series models, we estimate fertility rates by age for the 1895-1950 and 2015-2040 periods, at the national level. The data obtained allowed the construction of probable past and future age-specific fertility scenarios and revealed a relative consistency with general sociodemographic information and trends, allowing us to reopen questions about the fertility transition process.
{"title":"Proyecciones y retroproyecciones probabilísticas de las tasas de fecundidad por edad (1895-2040)","authors":"Nicolas Sacco, Lucia Andreozzi","doi":"10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I1.N20.4","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I1.N20.4","url":null,"abstract":"The goal of this article is to model and project fertility rates by age in Argentina, using vital statistics (1980-2014), population estimates,censuses, and previous estimates of fertility rates by age available for the 1955-1980 period. Using functional series models, we estimate fertility rates by age for the 1895-1950 and 2015-2040 periods, at the national level. The data obtained allowed the construction of probable past and future age-specific fertility scenarios and revealed a relative consistency with general sociodemographic information and trends, allowing us to reopen questions about the fertility transition process.","PeriodicalId":30944,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2017-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43415376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-12-23DOI: 10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I2.N21.3
M. Soto
In Uruguay, since the mid-1980s conjugal dissolutions have increased substantially, generating an increased number of people of reproductive age outside of a union. Given this, several studies wonder how dissolutions affect reproductive behaviour of women. This work analyzes the fertility of Montevidean women after the dissolution of a first union, and seeks to understand how and to what extent the increase in divorce or separation affects reproductive patterns. To do this, it studies the effect of dissolution of first union on the number of children of women between the ages of 25 and 67 who had at least one union and live in Montevideo, and factors associated with having at least one child after separation/divorce of the first union. The study intends to contribute to knowledge on fertility after union dissolution from a perspective which highlights the relation between conjugal life and reproduction.
{"title":"La disolución de la primera unión y su relación con la fecundidad de las mujeres montevideanas","authors":"M. Soto","doi":"10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I2.N21.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I2.N21.3","url":null,"abstract":"In Uruguay, since the mid-1980s conjugal dissolutions have increased substantially, generating an increased number of people of reproductive age outside of a union. Given this, several studies wonder how dissolutions affect reproductive behaviour of women. This work analyzes the fertility of Montevidean women after the dissolution of a first union, and seeks to understand how and to what extent the increase in divorce or separation affects reproductive patterns. To do this, it studies the effect of dissolution of first union on the number of children of women between the ages of 25 and 67 who had at least one union and live in Montevideo, and factors associated with having at least one child after separation/divorce of the first union. The study intends to contribute to knowledge on fertility after union dissolution from a perspective which highlights the relation between conjugal life and reproduction.","PeriodicalId":30944,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2017-12-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46088320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-08-31DOI: 10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I1.N20.3
Gabriela Sánchez-Soto, J. Singelmann
In this paper we analyze the pre-to-post migration occupational mobility of Mexican migrants to the U.S. using occupation and migration histories from the Mexican Migration Project. We compare the first occupation in the U.S. to the last occupation in Mexico, and the occupation in the last year spent in the U.S. to the occupation in the first year, by sex, using multinomial logistic regression models. The multivariate analyses account for individual, migration, and context characteristics. Our findings show rigidities in occupational structure for migrants and low opportunities for mobility after migration. Most men experience lateral mobility upon arriving to the U.S., and are unlikely to change occupations afterwards. Most women enter lower-status occupations or exit the labor force upon arrival, especially if highly educated or skilled. Undocumented men and university educated women are more likely to experience downward mobility. These patterns remain even after accounting for migrant networks.
{"title":"The Occupational Mobility of Mexican Migrants in the United States","authors":"Gabriela Sánchez-Soto, J. Singelmann","doi":"10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I1.N20.3","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I1.N20.3","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we analyze the pre-to-post migration occupational mobility of Mexican migrants to the U.S. using occupation and migration histories from the Mexican Migration Project. We compare the first occupation in the U.S. to the last occupation in Mexico, and the occupation in the last year spent in the U.S. to the occupation in the first year, by sex, using multinomial logistic regression models. The multivariate analyses account for individual, migration, and context characteristics. Our findings show rigidities in occupational structure for migrants and low opportunities for mobility after migration. Most men experience lateral mobility upon arriving to the U.S., and are unlikely to change occupations afterwards. Most women enter lower-status occupations or exit the labor force upon arrival, especially if highly educated or skilled. Undocumented men and university educated women are more likely to experience downward mobility. These patterns remain even after accounting for migrant networks.","PeriodicalId":30944,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2017-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45813955","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-08-31DOI: 10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I1.N20.5
Ricardo Neupert
La realizacion exitosa de un censo de poblacion y vivienda no es simple ya que, debido al hecho de ser una accion de gran envergadura, enfrenta numerosas trabas y barreras, por lo cual pueden presentarse muchas posibilidades de errores. Es frecuente que la mayoria de estos no provengan de falta de capacidades tecnicas, sino de decisiones erroneas resultantes de sesgos cognitivos que inducen a una confianza excesiva respecto a los tiempos necesarios para completar las diferentes etapas del censo, a los recursos financieros y humanos requeridos para finalizarlas y a la cobertura y confiabilidad de los datos a ser producidos. Estas decisiones equivocadas corresponden a la llamada falacia de la planificacion. Existen diversos manuales y textos sobre la realizacion y administracion de censos asi como bastante experiencia acumulada. Sin embargo, los posibles errores que provienen de la mencionada falacia no han sido analizados. El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar como uno de los mecanismos de la falacia de la planificacion es capaz de generar errores graves en los censos. Esto se ilustra con el caso de Chile, donde el censo de 2012 tuvo serios problemas. Se propone que muchos de los errores que afectaron este censo tienen su origen en sesgos cognitivos que intervinieron en procesos administrativos, metodologicos y tecnicos.
{"title":"Los censos y la falacia de la planificación: el caso de Chile","authors":"Ricardo Neupert","doi":"10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I1.N20.5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I1.N20.5","url":null,"abstract":"La realizacion exitosa de un censo de poblacion y vivienda no es simple ya que, debido al hecho de ser una accion de gran envergadura, enfrenta numerosas trabas y barreras, por lo cual pueden presentarse muchas posibilidades de errores. Es frecuente que la mayoria de estos no provengan de falta de capacidades tecnicas, sino de decisiones erroneas resultantes de sesgos cognitivos que inducen a una confianza excesiva respecto a los tiempos necesarios para completar las diferentes etapas del censo, a los recursos financieros y humanos requeridos para finalizarlas y a la cobertura y confiabilidad de los datos a ser producidos. Estas decisiones equivocadas corresponden a la llamada falacia de la planificacion. Existen diversos manuales y textos sobre la realizacion y administracion de censos asi como bastante experiencia acumulada. Sin embargo, los posibles errores que provienen de la mencionada falacia no han sido analizados. El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar como uno de los mecanismos de la falacia de la planificacion es capaz de generar errores graves en los censos. Esto se ilustra con el caso de Chile, donde el censo de 2012 tuvo serios problemas. Se propone que muchos de los errores que afectaron este censo tienen su origen en sesgos cognitivos que intervinieron en procesos administrativos, metodologicos y tecnicos.","PeriodicalId":30944,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2017-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42252640","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-08-31DOI: 10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I1.N20.6
L. Montali
O objetivo deste artigo e discutir implicacoes das conjunturas de crise economica e de crescimento sobre a relacao familia-trabalho, tendo por referencia empirica as regioes metropolitanas brasileiras. Considera-se que conjunturas de crise possibilitam mudancas na relacao familia-trabalho, marcadas pelas relacoes de genero. Indaga-se se estas provocam mudancas na divisao sexual do trabalho. O conceito de divisao sexual do trabalho e central neste artigo como transversal a familia e ao mercado, por definir os lugares de homens e de mulheres nas esferas da reproducao e producao. Os momentos de baixo crescimento economico nos anos 1980 e 1990, especialmente a crise na decada de 1990 sob a reestruturacao produtiva, propiciaram a aceleracao de mudancas na insercao dos componentes familiares no mercado de trabalho. Definem-se, desde entao, rearranjos familiares de insercao no mercado, com participacao mais acentuada da mulher casada nas atividades produtivas e reducao da participacao dos filhos, tendendo para a quebra do padrao “chefe provedor” e a emergencia das familias com dois provedores, que se consolidam no periodo de expansao da economia a partir de 2004.
{"title":"Implicações das conjunturas de crise e de expansão sobre as famílias e a relação família-trabalho","authors":"L. Montali","doi":"10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I1.N20.6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I1.N20.6","url":null,"abstract":"O objetivo deste artigo e discutir implicacoes das conjunturas de crise economica e de crescimento sobre a relacao familia-trabalho, tendo por referencia empirica as regioes metropolitanas brasileiras. Considera-se que conjunturas de crise possibilitam mudancas na relacao familia-trabalho, marcadas pelas relacoes de genero. Indaga-se se estas provocam mudancas na divisao sexual do trabalho. O conceito de divisao sexual do trabalho e central neste artigo como transversal a familia e ao mercado, por definir os lugares de homens e de mulheres nas esferas da reproducao e producao. Os momentos de baixo crescimento economico nos anos 1980 e 1990, especialmente a crise na decada de 1990 sob a reestruturacao produtiva, propiciaram a aceleracao de mudancas na insercao dos componentes familiares no mercado de trabalho. Definem-se, desde entao, rearranjos familiares de insercao no mercado, com participacao mais acentuada da mulher casada nas atividades produtivas e reducao da participacao dos filhos, tendendo para a quebra do padrao “chefe provedor” e a emergencia das familias com dois provedores, que se consolidam no periodo de expansao da economia a partir de 2004.","PeriodicalId":30944,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2017-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47109807","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2017-07-23DOI: 10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I1.N20.2
Luana Junqueira Dias Myrrha, C. Turra, Simone Wajnman
The objective of this study is to examine population aging in Brazil between 1950 and 2100. We apply a method developed by Preston, Himes and Egger (1989) to decompose the variation in the mean age of the population according to three trends: the natural tendency of the population to grow older, and the rejuvenating effects of both births and deaths. We use data from CELADE (2007a, 2007b) for the years 1950 to 2000, and the population projections calculated by CEDEPLAR, scenario BR, for the 2000-2100 period (CEDEPLAR, 2008). The results are consistent with previous literature by suggesting the central role of fertility decline for the aging process, as well as a secondary but growing effect of mortality transition. At the beginning of the demographic transition, when the Brazilian population was young and quasi-stable, the large volume of births prevented the mean age of the population from increasing. In the following decades, the continuing fall in birth rates has resulted in a gradual increase in the mean age of the population, which is expected to rise from 23.4 years in 1950 to 51.1 years by 2100. Gradually, the age structure will tend again to a quasi-stable scenario with little variation in the mean age of the population, particularly due to the effect of deaths, which will partially replace the role of births by excluding individuals at ages older than the mean age. The large-scale replacement of children by elderly in Brazil, which occurred in the span of only a century, will give rise to an aged population, characterized by only modest variations in the age structure, depending on the future of fertility and mortality levels. Therefore, the current strong demand to adjust the economic and social systems due to the new demographic context may cool down in the future as we approach a new quasi-stable scenario.
{"title":"A contribuição dos nascimentos e óbitos para o envelhecimento populacional no Brasil, 1950 a 2100","authors":"Luana Junqueira Dias Myrrha, C. Turra, Simone Wajnman","doi":"10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I1.N20.2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.31406/RELAP2017.V11.I1.N20.2","url":null,"abstract":"The objective of this study is to examine population aging in Brazil between 1950 and 2100. We apply a method developed by Preston, Himes and Egger (1989) to decompose the variation in the mean age of the population according to three trends: the natural tendency of the population to grow older, and the rejuvenating effects of both births and deaths. We use data from CELADE (2007a, 2007b) for the years 1950 to 2000, and the population projections calculated by CEDEPLAR, scenario BR, for the 2000-2100 period (CEDEPLAR, 2008). The results are consistent with previous literature by suggesting the central role of fertility decline for the aging process, as well as a secondary but growing effect of mortality transition. At the beginning of the demographic transition, when the Brazilian population was young and quasi-stable, the large volume of births prevented the mean age of the population from increasing. In the following decades, the continuing fall in birth rates has resulted in a gradual increase in the mean age of the population, which is expected to rise from 23.4 years in 1950 to 51.1 years by 2100. Gradually, the age structure will tend again to a quasi-stable scenario with little variation in the mean age of the population, particularly due to the effect of deaths, which will partially replace the role of births by excluding individuals at ages older than the mean age. The large-scale replacement of children by elderly in Brazil, which occurred in the span of only a century, will give rise to an aged population, characterized by only modest variations in the age structure, depending on the future of fertility and mortality levels. Therefore, the current strong demand to adjust the economic and social systems due to the new demographic context may cool down in the future as we approach a new quasi-stable scenario.","PeriodicalId":30944,"journal":{"name":"Revista Latinoamericana de Poblacion","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.4,"publicationDate":"2017-07-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41399013","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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