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2010 7th International Conference on the European Energy Market最新文献

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Will more competition at the retail level of the European natural gas industry necessarily drive down prices for final consumers? 欧洲天然气行业零售层面的竞争是否必然会降低最终消费者的价格?
Pub Date : 2010-06-23 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2010.5558739
Bertrand Charmaison
We consider a vertical industry where a dominant upstream producer (or a cartel of producers) sells an homogenous good to retailers who serve the final market. Using an industrial organisation approach, we show that if at an initial stage the final market is supplied by a single incumbent firm holding long-term contracts with the dominant upstream producer, then an excessive entry of competitors on the retail market leads to an increase of the price paid by final consumers. Our model illustrates the existence of a trade-off between alleviating the double marginalisation issue thanks to additional competition at the retail level and limiting the market power of upstream producers on the wholesale market through long-term contracts. Our results still hold if the dominant upstream firm faces a competitive fringe, provided firms of the fringe face substantially higher costs of production. The counter-intuitive outcome of our model could be of particular relevance for the European natural gas industry, in case the recently settled organisation grouping the largest gas exporters was to turn into a cartel of producers.
我们考虑一个垂直行业,其中一个占主导地位的上游生产商(或生产商卡特尔)向服务于最终市场的零售商销售同质产品。使用产业组织方法,我们表明,如果在初始阶段,最终市场是由一家与上游生产商持有长期合同的单一在位企业供应的,那么竞争对手在零售市场的过度进入会导致最终消费者支付的价格上涨。我们的模型表明,由于零售层面的额外竞争,缓解了双重边缘化问题,同时通过长期合同限制了上游生产商在批发市场上的市场力量,两者之间存在权衡。如果优势上游企业面临竞争边缘,我们的结果仍然成立,前提是边缘企业面临更高的生产成本。我们的模型得出的反直觉的结果可能与欧洲天然气行业特别相关,以防最近成立的由最大天然气出口国组成的组织演变成生产商的卡特尔。
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引用次数: 0
On the pricing and hedging of combined cycle power plants using option pricing theory 基于期权定价理论的联合循环电厂定价与套期保值研究
Pub Date : 2010-06-23 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2010.5558715
Miguel Casanovas
There has been an increasing interest on pricing power plants. The main reasons are making power investment decisions, related to the risks derived from managing or investing in combined cycle power plants. A stochastic model for the electricity futures curve has been applied for studying, using the option pricing theory framework, the pricing and hedging of a combined cycle power plant. The solution is obtained by means of solving a stochastic control problem over any feasible future load strategy. We discuss the practical case of hedging against market futures the plant risks. Finally we test against market historical values, the validity of the hedging strategy.
人们对发电厂定价的兴趣日益浓厚。主要原因是做出电力投资决策,这与管理或投资联合循环发电厂所产生的风险有关。利用期权定价理论框架,建立了电力期货曲线的随机模型,研究了联合循环电厂的定价和套期保值问题。通过求解任意可行的未来负荷策略下的随机控制问题,得到了该问题的解。我们讨论了对冲市场期货风险的实际案例。最后以市场历史价值为对照,检验套期保值策略的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
A dual-space approach for pricing congestion in electricity markets 电力市场拥堵定价的双空间方法
Pub Date : 2010-06-23 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2010.5558772
Ricardo Rios-Zalapa, Manuel E. Ruiz Casillas, J. Wan, K. Cheung
To deal with the pricing aspects of transmission constraint management, Independent System Operators (ISOs) use heuristic tuning of parameters in the “primal” space of the economic dispatch problem, in order to get indirectly “good” “dual” variables, i.e. prices. A method that works directly in the dual space of the economic dispatch to get prices ($/MWh), guided by the primal solution (MW) obtained from a primal formulation, is explored. Additionally, economic sensitivities are proposed, from which indicators are derived to give a complementary view of transmission constraints, to that provided by physical line flow sensitivities. Small networks are used to demonstrate the proposals.
为了处理输电约束管理中的定价问题,独立系统算子(ISOs)在经济调度问题的“原始”空间中使用启发式参数调整,以间接获得“好”的“对偶”变量,即价格。探讨了一种直接在经济调度的对偶空间中,以由原始公式得到的原始解(MW)为指导,获得价格($/MWh)的方法。此外,还提出了经济敏感性,从中得出指标,以提供传输约束的补充观点,以提供物理线路流量敏感性。小型网络被用来演示这些建议。
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引用次数: 2
Optimal short-term operation and sizing of pumped-storage power plants in systems with high penetration of wind energy 高风能渗透系统中抽水蓄能电站的短期运行优化与规模优化
Pub Date : 2010-06-23 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2010.5558706
J. Pérez-Díaz, A. Perea, J. R. Wilhelmi
In this paper the short-term optimal operation of an electric system comprising several thermal power plants and one pumped storage plant is studied in several scenarios of power demand and wind penetration in order to draw conclusions about the contribution of the pumped storage plant to system operation costs. A mixed integer linear programming model is used to obtain the optimal hourly thermal, hydro and pumping powers so that the production cost of the entire system is minimized. An aggregated piecewise linear hourly production cost curve is used to represent the thermal generation; the marginal production cost varying as a function of the power generated according to the slope of each piecewise linear segment. Main design parameters of the pumped storage plant are not considered fixed in the model but rather they are obtained in the solution with the purpose of drawing conclusions about the plant optimal sizing.
本文研究了一个由多个火电厂和一个抽水蓄能电厂组成的电力系统在不同电力需求和风侵情况下的短期最优运行,从而得出抽水蓄能电厂对系统运行成本的贡献。采用混合整数线性规划模型求解每小时最优的热力、水力和抽水功率,使整个系统的生产成本最小。采用分段线性每小时生产成本曲线表示发电量;边际生产成本作为发电量的函数根据每分段线性段的斜率而变化。模型中不认为抽水蓄能电站的主要设计参数是固定的,而是在解中求得的,目的是得出电站最优规模的结论。
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引用次数: 28
Mitigating the impact of distributed generation on distribution network costs through advanced response options 通过先进的响应选项减轻分布式发电对配电网成本的影响
Pub Date : 2010-06-23 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2010.5558669
R. Cossent, L. Olmos, T. Gómez, C. Mateo, P. Frías
Nowadays, the presence of distributed generation (DG) is steadily growing. This growth can produce significant effects on the costs incurred by distribution system operators (DSOs). This impact can be particularly negative if DG keeps playing a passive role, not reacting to network conditions. However, the implementation of advanced response options or active network management (ANM) may mitigate the adverse effects of large DG penetration levels. This paper considers the adoption of ANM planning strategies and provides an estimate of the distribution network costs reduction that can be achieved through the implementation of advanced response options. Two large-scale distribution planning models, called reference network models (RNMs), have been used to calculate these cost estimates. Three actual distribution areas are studied, taking into account different scenarios of load and DG for each one of them. These areas are located in The Netherlands, Germany and Spain and were chosen to reflect a wide range of different types of consumers, load concentration and DG technologies.
如今,分布式发电(DG)的存在正在稳步增长。这种增长会对配电系统运营商(dso)的成本产生重大影响。如果DG继续扮演被动角色,不对网络条件做出反应,这种影响可能会特别消极。然而,先进的响应方案或主动网络管理(ANM)的实施可能会减轻大型DG渗透水平的不利影响。本文考虑采用ANM计划策略,并提供了通过实施高级响应选项可以实现的配电网成本降低的估计。两种大规模的分配规划模型,称为参考网络模型(RNMs),已被用于计算这些成本估算。研究了三个实际配电区域,并考虑了每个区域的负荷和DG的不同情况。这些地区位于荷兰、德国和西班牙,选择这些地区是为了反映不同类型的消费者、负荷集中和DG技术。
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引用次数: 11
Covariance estimation using high-frequency data: Analysis of Nord Pool electricity forward data 高频数据的协方差估计:北池电力正向数据分析
Pub Date : 2010-06-23 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2010.5558684
Gudbrand Lien, Erik Haugom, Sjur Westgaard, P. Solibakke
Volatility and correlation modelling is important in order to calculate hedge ratios, value at risk estimates, CAPM betas, derivate pricing and for risk management in general. Historically, these measures have usually been obtained by analyzing daily data. Recently access to intra-daily high-frequency data for two of the most liquid contracts at the Nord Pool exchange (quarterly and yearly forward contracts), makes it possible to apply new and promising methods for analyzing volatility and correlation. We apply the concept of realized volatility and realized correlation, and as the first study statistically describe the distribution (both distributional properties and temporal dependencies) of electricity forward data from 2005 to 2009. The overall main findings show that the logarithmic realized volatility are approximately normal distributed, while realized correlation seems not. Further, realized volatility and realized correlation has a long memory feature, and there seem to be a high correlation between realized correlation and volatilities. These results are to a large extent consistent with earlier stylized facts studies of other financial and commodity markets.
波动性和相关性模型对于计算对冲比率、风险价值估计、CAPM贝塔、衍生品定价和一般的风险管理都很重要。从历史上看,这些指标通常是通过分析日常数据得出的。最近访问了Nord Pool交易所两种最具流动性的合约(季度和年度远期合约)的每日高频数据,使得应用新的有前途的方法来分析波动性和相关性成为可能。本文采用已实现波动率和已实现相关性的概念,首次对2005 - 2009年电力正向数据的分布(既有分布性质又有时间依赖性)进行了统计描述。总体上的主要发现表明,已实现波动率的对数近似为正态分布,而已实现的相关性似乎不是正态分布。此外,已实现的波动性和已实现的相关性具有长记忆特征,已实现的相关性与波动性之间似乎存在较高的相关性。这些结果在很大程度上与早期对其他金融和商品市场的程式化事实研究一致。
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引用次数: 5
Extracting relevant features to explain electricity price variations 提取相关特征来解释电价变化
Pub Date : 2010-06-23 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2010.5558743
F. Suard, S. Goutier, David Mercier
This paper proposes to explain the variations of energy price, namely the electricity on the German market. Such price variations are described by a set of characteristics which are not totally relevant to explain the variations. We first propose to find explanations by using visual tools in order to draw some preliminary conclusions. Analysing such kind of data is usually done thanks to visual comparison by plotting the curves chronologically. In a second time, we propose to build a statistical model from data. The aim of such approach is to detail the characteristic that get involved in the solution, so that we can automatically extract the most pertinent characteristics. We apply this approach on a set of historical data (2007–2010). Obtained results show that methodology is very interesting, since the conclusion from the statistical modelling enforce the visual analysis and also add details about the explanation.
本文试图解释能源价格的变化,即德国市场上的电力。这种价格变化是由一组特征来描述的,这些特征与解释价格变化并不完全相关。我们首先提出使用视觉工具来寻找解释,以便得出一些初步的结论。分析这类数据通常是通过按时间顺序绘制曲线的直观比较来完成的。第二次,我们提出从数据中建立统计模型。这种方法的目的是详细描述解决方案中涉及的特征,以便我们可以自动提取最相关的特征。我们将这种方法应用于一组历史数据(2007-2010)。获得的结果表明,该方法非常有趣,因为从统计建模得出的结论加强了可视化分析,也增加了解释的细节。
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引用次数: 6
Impacts of large penetration of wind in electricity systems. Probabilistic analysis on Spanish market 风力在电力系统中大面积渗透的影响。西班牙市场的概率分析
Pub Date : 2010-06-23 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2010.5558690
Almudena Huerta Miranda, C. Villar
Impacts of large penetration of wind are analyzed in depth in this paper. The analysis proposed is strengthened using a simulation model. The probabilistic model is based on a case scenario that currently is present on the Spanish market taking several hypotheses. According to the model, the growth of RES capacity will substantially reduce the residual demand left to conventional thermal generation. The load factor reduction of thermal technologies, together with episodes of zero or negative prices (where implemented), compromises their operation in the mid term and the system adequacy in the long term. The paper also advocates for a burden sharing of costs involved in order to compliance with the ambitious targets set by RES Directive, since even though not all the different sectors have the same possibilities to make use of renewable sources of energy, are part of the gross final consumption
本文对大穿透风的影响进行了深入分析。通过仿真模型对分析结果进行了验证。该概率模型基于西班牙市场上目前存在的情况,采用几个假设。根据该模型,可再生能源容量的增长将大大减少传统火力发电的剩余需求。热技术的负荷系数降低,加上零价格或负价格(在实施的情况下),损害了它们的中期运行和系统的长期充分性。该文件还主张分担相关成本,以遵守RES指令设定的雄心勃勃的目标,因为即使不是所有不同部门都有相同的利用可再生能源的可能性,可再生能源都是最终总消费的一部分
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引用次数: 0
Scenario-based investigation of the effects of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) in 11 kV substations in Stockholm 基于场景的插电式混合动力汽车(phev)在斯德哥尔摩11千伏变电站的影响研究
Pub Date : 2010-06-23 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2010.5558782
A. Karnama, V. Knazkins
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) with larger battery size in comparison with Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) are designed to run alternatively on electric mode by means of grid electricity. They are mainly introduced in order to decrease the emissions and reduce the fossil fuel dependency in the transportation sector. These vehicles are considered as a new type of additional load for the power system which are introduced while smart grid concept is being developed rapidly. The effects of different number of conventional vehicles changed to PHEVs on the 11 kV substations in Stockholm are investigated in this paper. This is done by planning scenarios for penetration of the PHEVs in the city. The output results of the scenario are implemented in the simulated power system in PSS/E by using the Python as the automation tool. The results showed that the existing grid infrastructures in 11kV substations in Stockholm can handle 100 percent of the existing conventional cars converted to PHEVs in case regulated charging pattern is implemented. However, more residential areas are subject to more problems from grid infrastructures capacity perspective in case one-phase charging facility is the only available one. In addition, by the same amount of energy consumption, the losses are lower (by 0.48 percent) if the energy consumption for the PHEVs is regulated.
插电式混合动力汽车(phev)与混合动力汽车(hev)相比,电池尺寸更大,旨在通过电网电力在电力模式下交替运行。它们主要是为了减少排放和减少运输部门对化石燃料的依赖而引入的。这些车辆被认为是在智能电网概念迅速发展的背景下引入的一种新型电力系统附加负荷。本文研究了斯德哥尔摩地区11kv变电站将不同数量的传统车辆改为插电式混合动力汽车对变电站供电的影响。这是通过规划phev在城市中的渗透情况来实现的。通过使用Python作为自动化工具,将场景的输出结果在PSS/E的模拟电力系统中实现。结果表明,在实施调节充电模式的情况下,斯德哥尔摩11kV变电站的现有电网基础设施可以处理100%的现有传统汽车转换为插电式混合动力车。然而,在只有一期充电设施的情况下,从电网基础设施容量的角度来看,更多的居民区面临更多的问题。此外,如果对插电式混合动力汽车的能源消耗进行调节,在相同的能源消耗下,损失会降低(0.48%)。
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引用次数: 12
Impacts of plug-in electric vehicles on Germany's power plant portfolio - A model based approach 插电式电动汽车对德国电厂投资组合的影响——基于模型的方法
Pub Date : 2010-06-23 DOI: 10.1109/EEM.2010.5558696
H. Gerbracht, Dominik Most, W. Fichtner
The expanding market for electric mobility and its associated increasing electricity demand will affect the long term development of the European energy system. This effect depends on various framework conditions, such as the emission trading system, coupling requirements with renewable energy supplies, load shifting potentials, load infrastructure and the European transmission grid. Thus electric mobility will affect the investment strategies of energy utilities. This paper analyses the framework for electric mobility in Germany and introduces a model approach for an impact analysis of electric mobility on the European energy system based on an optimising energy system model. The electricity demand and load curve for electric mobility are derived and first results confirm the necessity for a European model approach in contrast to a national one in order to analyse these effects. Furthermore, results indicate that beside the market penetration, mainly the flexibility of charging intervals influences the impact of electric mobility on the energy system.
不断扩大的电动汽车市场及其相关的不断增长的电力需求将影响欧洲能源系统的长期发展。这种影响取决于各种框架条件,如排放交易系统、与可再生能源供应的耦合要求、负荷转移潜力、负荷基础设施和欧洲输电网。因此,电动交通将影响能源公用事业公司的投资策略。本文分析了德国电动交通的框架,并介绍了一种基于优化能源系统模型的电动交通对欧洲能源系统影响分析的模型方法。推导了电动汽车的电力需求和负荷曲线,初步结果证实,为了分析这些影响,有必要采用欧洲模型方法,而不是国家模型方法。此外,研究结果表明,除市场渗透率外,影响电动汽车对能源系统影响的主要因素是充电间隔的灵活性。
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引用次数: 7
期刊
2010 7th International Conference on the European Energy Market
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