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When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering? 何时调整聚类的标准误差?
Pub Date : 2017-10-09 DOI: 10.3386/W24003
Alberto Abadie, S. Athey, G. Imbens, J. Wooldridge
Clustered standard errors, with clusters defined by factors such as geography, are widespread in empirical research in economics and many other disciplines. Formally, clustered standard errors adjust for the correlations induced by sampling the outcome variable from a data-generating process with unobserved cluster-level components. However, the standard econometric framework for clustering leaves important questions unanswered: (i) Why do we adjust standard errors for clustering in some ways but not others, e.g., by state but not by gender, and in observational studies, but not in completely randomized experiments? (ii) Why is conventional clustering an “all-or-nothing” adjustment, while within-cluster correlations can be strong or extremely weak? (iii) In what settings does the choice of whether and how to cluster make a difference? We address these and other questions using a novel framework for clustered inference on average treatment effects. In addition to the common sampling component, the new framework incorporates a design component that accounts for the variability induced on the estimator by the treatment assignment mechanism. We show that, when the number of clusters in the sample is a nonnegligible fraction of the number of clusters in the population, conventional cluster standard errors can be severely inflated, and propose new variance estimators that correct for this bias.
聚类标准误差,由地理等因素定义的聚类,在经济学和许多其他学科的实证研究中广泛存在。正式地,聚类标准误差调整了从数据生成过程中对未观察到的聚类级组件的结果变量进行采样所引起的相关性。然而,聚类的标准计量经济学框架留下了一些重要的问题没有回答:(i)为什么我们在某些方面调整聚类的标准误差,而不是其他方面,例如,根据州而不是性别,在观察性研究中,而不是在完全随机的实验中?(ii)为什么传统的聚类是一种“全有或全无”的调整,而聚类内的相关性可能很强,也可能极弱?(iii)在什么情况下,选择是否和如何聚类会产生影响?我们使用一种新的框架来解决这些问题和其他问题,用于对平均治疗效果进行聚类推断。除了常见的抽样组件之外,新的框架还合并了一个设计组件,该组件考虑了处理分配机制在估计器上引起的可变性。我们表明,当样本中的群集数量是总体中群集数量的一个不可忽略的部分时,传统的群集标准误差可能会严重膨胀,并提出新的方差估计器来纠正这种偏差。
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引用次数: 1105
Analytical Approximations of Non-Linear SDEs of McKean-Vlasov Type McKean-Vlasov型非线性SDEs的解析逼近
Pub Date : 2017-08-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2868660
E. Gobet, S. Pagliarani
Abstract We provide analytical approximations for the law of the solutions to a certain class of scalar McKean–Vlasov stochastic differential equations (MKV-SDEs) with random initial datum. “Propagation of chaos“ results ( [15] ) connect this class of SDEs with the macroscopic limiting behavior of a particle, evolving within a mean-field interaction particle system, as the total number of particles tends to infinity. Here we assume the mean-field interaction only acting on the drift of each particle, this giving rise to a MKV-SDE where the drift coefficient depends on the law of the unknown solution. By perturbing the non-linear forward Kolmogorov equation associated to the MKV-SDE, we perform a two-steps approximating procedure that decouples the McKean–Vlasov interaction from the standard dependence on the state-variables. The first step yields an expansion for the marginal distribution at a given time, whereas the second yields an expansion for the transition density. Both the approximating series turn out to be asymptotically convergent in the limit of short times and small noise, the convergence order for the latter expansion being higher than for the former. Concise numerical tests are presented to illustrate the accuracy of the resulting approximation formulas. The latter are expressed in semi-closed form and can be then regarded as a viable alternative to the numerical simulation of the large-particle system, which can be computationally very expensive. Moreover, these results pave the way for further extensions of this approach to more general dynamics and to high-dimensional settings.
摘要本文给出了一类具有随机初始基准的标量McKean-Vlasov随机微分方程(MKV-SDEs)的解律的解析近似。“混沌传播”(Propagation of chaos)的结果([15])将这类sde与粒子的宏观极限行为联系起来,当粒子总数趋于无穷大时,粒子在平均场相互作用粒子系统中演化。这里我们假设平均场相互作用只作用于每个粒子的漂移,这就产生了MKV-SDE,其中漂移系数取决于未知解的定律。通过扰动与MKV-SDE相关的非线性前向Kolmogorov方程,我们执行了一个两步逼近过程,将McKean-Vlasov相互作用与对状态变量的标准依赖解耦。第一步得到给定时间的边际分布的展开式,而第二步得到跃迁密度的展开式。两种近似级数在短时间和小噪声极限下都是渐近收敛的,后者的收敛阶高于前者。给出了简明的数值试验来说明所得近似公式的准确性。后者以半封闭形式表示,可以被视为大颗粒系统的数值模拟的可行替代方案,这在计算上非常昂贵。此外,这些结果为进一步将该方法扩展到更一般的动力学和高维设置铺平了道路。
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引用次数: 14
Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Latent Variable Models by SMC with Marginalization and Data Cloning 基于边缘化和数据克隆的SMC潜在变量模型的极大似然估计
Pub Date : 2017-08-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3043426
J. Duan, Andras Fulop, Yu-Wei Hsieh
A data-cloning SMC² method is proposed as a general purpose optimization routine for estimating latent variable models by maximum likelihood. The latent variables are first marginalized out by SMC at any fixed parameter value, and the model parameters are then estimated by density tempered SMC. The data-cloning step is employed to efficiently reduce Monte Carlo errors inherent in the SMC² algorithm and also to effectively address multi-modality present in typical objective functions. This new method has wide applicability and can be massively parallelized to take advantage of typical computers today.
提出了一种数据克隆SMC²方法,作为最大似然估计潜在变量模型的通用优化程序。在任意固定的参数值处,先用SMC将潜在变量边缘化,然后用密度回火SMC估计模型参数。采用数据克隆步骤可以有效地减少SMC²算法中固有的蒙特卡罗误差,也可以有效地解决典型目标函数中存在的多模态问题。这种新方法具有广泛的适用性,并且可以大规模并行化以利用当今的典型计算机。
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引用次数: 1
Estimation and Inference of Regression Discontinuity Design with Ordered or Discrete Duration Outcomes 具有有序或离散持续时间结果的回归不连续设计的估计与推断
Pub Date : 2017-06-24 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2992158
Ke-Li Xu
We consider the regression discontinuity (RD) design with the duration outcome which has discrete support. The parameters of policy interest are treatment effects on unconditional (duration effect) and conditional (hazard effect) exiting probabilities for each discrete level. We find that a flexible separability structure of the underlying continuous-time duration process can be exploited to substantially improve the quality of the fully nonparametric estimator. We propose global sieve-based estimators, and associated marginal and simultaneous inference. Simultaneous inference over discrete levels is nonstandard since the asymptotic variance matrix is singular with unknown rank. The peculiarity is delivered by the nature of the RD estimand, and we provide solutions. Random censoring and competing risks can also be allowed in our framework. The standard practice of applying local linear estimators to a sequence of binary outcomes is in general unsatisfactory, which motivates our semi-nonparametric approach. First, it provides poor hazard estimates near the end of the observation period due to small sizes of risk sets (in the neighborhood of the cutoff). Second, it fits each probability separately and thus does not support joint inference. The estimation and inference methods we advocate in this paper are computationally easy and fast to implement, which is illustrated by numerical examples.
我们认为回归不连续(RD)设计与离散的时间结果的支持。政策利益的参数是对每个离散水平的无条件(持续时间效应)和条件(风险效应)退出概率的处理效应。我们发现可以利用底层连续时间持续过程的柔性可分性结构来大大提高完全非参数估计量的质量。我们提出了基于全局筛的估计器,以及相关的边际推理和同步推理。离散水平上的同时推理是非标准的,因为渐近方差矩阵是奇异的且秩未知。这种特性是由RD需求的本质决定的,我们提供解决方案。我们的框架也允许随机审查和竞争风险。应用局部线性估计的标准实践一个二进制序列的结果一般是不满意,激励我们semi-nonparametric方法。首先,由于风险集的规模较小(在截止点附近),它在观察期结束时提供了较差的危险估计。其次,它单独拟合每个概率,因此不支持联合推理。本文所提倡的估计和推理方法具有计算简便、实现速度快的特点,并通过数值算例加以说明。
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引用次数: 0
Comparing Political Units Over Time: An Overview of Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis 比较不同时期的政治单位:时间序列-横断面分析概述
Pub Date : 2017-06-16 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2988020
Phillippe J Scrimger
This article overviews time-series-cross-section (TSCS) data analysis in the social sciences, a method that has been gaining in popularity since the late 1990s. The paper outlines the pros and cons of the different strategies to model both the time-series and the cross-sectional dimensions of TSCS data. Most importantly, it is argued throughout that one should follow an iterative process when modeling TSCS data. This means using more general models first and then imposing some restrictions on the basis of theoretical insights and in accordance with the actual structure of the data.
本文概述了时间序列横截面(TSCS)数据分析在社会科学中的应用,这是一种自20世纪90年代末以来越来越受欢迎的方法。本文概述了对TSCS数据的时间序列和横截面维度进行建模的不同策略的优缺点。最重要的是,在对TSCS数据建模时,应该遵循迭代过程。这意味着首先使用更一般的模型,然后根据理论见解和数据的实际结构施加一些限制。
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引用次数: 0
Big Data Econometrics: Now Casting and Early Estimates 大数据计量经济学:现在的预测和早期的估计
Pub Date : 2017-06-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3206554
Massimiliano Marcellino, Fotis Papailias, G. Mazzi, G. Kapetanios, Dario Buono
This paper aims at providing a primer on the use of big data in macroeconomic nowcasting and early estimation. We discuss: (i) a typology of big data characteristics relevant for macroeconomic nowcasting and early estimates, (ii) methods for features extraction from unstructured big data to usable time series, (iii) econometric methods that could be used for nowcasting with big data, (iv) some empirical nowcasting results for key target variables for four EU countries, and (v) ways to evaluate nowcasts and ash estimates. We conclude by providing a set of recommendations to assess the pros and cons of the use of big data in a specific empirical nowcasting context.
本文旨在介绍大数据在宏观经济临近预测和早期估计中的应用。我们将讨论:(i)与宏观经济临近预报和早期估计相关的大数据特征类型,(ii)从非结构化大数据提取可用时间序列特征的方法,(iii)可用于大数据临近预报的计量经济学方法,(iv)四个欧盟国家关键目标变量的一些经验临近预报结果,以及(v)评估临近预报和灰估计的方法。最后,我们提供了一组建议,以评估在特定的经验临近预报背景下使用大数据的利弊。
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引用次数: 11
A Choice-Based Diffusion Model for Multi-Generation and Multi-Country Data 基于选择的多代多国数据扩散模型
Pub Date : 2017-03-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2933276
H. Lim, D. Jun, Mohsen Hamoudia
Abstract This study proposes a model that enables us to investigate the multi-generation and the multi-country diffusion process simultaneously. Many former studies focus on only one of the dimensions since it is difficult to integrate both dimensions at the same time. Our proposed framework can explain both diffusion processes by capturing the common trend of multi-generation diffusion process and the country-specific heterogeneity. We develop the choice-based diffusion model by decomposing the choice probability of adoption into two components; the first component explains the individual country heterogeneity depending on the country-based variables while the second component captures the common trend of multi-generation diffusion process with the generation-based variables. We apply the model to 3G and 4G connections across 25 countries. Empirical result shows that it is not easy to use individual country level model for most countries due to the lack of data points. Our pooled model outperforms several individual country models according to the fitting and forecasting measures. We find that each country's market competitiveness and the market price affect the rate of diffusion and show that random effects of 3G and 4G are positively correlated. This framework provides the fine prediction capability even with few data points and valuable information for formulating policies on a new generation.
摘要本研究提出了一个可以同时考察多代和多国扩散过程的模型。由于难以同时对两个维度进行整合,以往的研究大多只关注其中一个维度。我们提出的框架既可以通过捕捉多代扩散过程的共同趋势来解释扩散过程,也可以通过捕捉特定国家的异质性来解释扩散过程。通过将采用的选择概率分解为两个分量,建立了基于选择的扩散模型;第一个组成部分根据基于国家的变量解释了个别国家的异质性,而第二个组成部分利用基于世代的变量捕捉了多代扩散过程的共同趋势。我们将该模型应用于25个国家的3G和4G连接。实证结果表明,由于缺乏数据点,大多数国家不容易使用个别国家层面的模型。根据拟合和预测措施,我们的混合模型优于几个单独的国家模型。我们发现,各国的市场竞争力和市场价格对扩散速度有影响,并表明3G和4G的随机效应呈正相关。该框架提供了良好的预测能力,即使只有很少的数据点和有价值的信息,为制定新一代的政策。
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引用次数: 1
Inference in High-Dimensional Linear Regression Models 高维线性回归模型中的推理
Pub Date : 2017-03-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2932785
Tom Boot, D. Nibbering
We introduce an asymptotically unbiased estimator for the full high-dimensional parameter vector in linear regression models where the number of variables exceeds the number of available observations. The estimator is accompanied by a closed-form expression for the covariance matrix of the estimates that is free of tuning parameters. This enables the construction of confidence intervals that are valid uniformly over the parameter vector. Estimates are obtained by using a scaled Moore-Penrose pseudoinverse as an approximate inverse of the singular empirical covariance matrix of the regressors. The approximation induces a bias, which is then corrected for using the lasso. Regularization of the pseudoinverse is shown to yield narrower confidence intervals under a suitable choice of the regularization parameter. The methods are illustrated in Monte Carlo experiments and in an empirical example where gross domestic product is explained by a large number of macroeconomic and financial indicators.
我们引入了一个渐近无偏估计,用于线性回归模型中变量数量超过可用观测数的全高维参数向量。该估计量伴随着一个不含调谐参数的估计协方差矩阵的封闭表达式。这使得构造在参数向量上一致有效的置信区间成为可能。估计是通过使用一个缩放的Moore-Penrose伪逆作为回归量的奇异经验协方差矩阵的近似逆来获得的。近似产生一个偏差,然后用套索修正。在适当选择正则化参数的情况下,对伪逆进行正则化可以产生更窄的置信区间。这些方法在蒙特卡洛实验和一个经验例子中得到说明,其中国内生产总值是由大量宏观经济和金融指标解释的。
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引用次数: 0
Economic Growth and Health Inequality: The Perspective of Gender 经济增长与健康不平等:性别视角
Pub Date : 2017-02-17 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2919294
P. Krishnamoorthy
The well known Preston Curve shows relationship between per capita output and health achievements. What role does government policy play in the alleviation of poverty?
著名的普雷斯顿曲线显示了人均产出与卫生成就之间的关系。政府政策在减轻贫困方面发挥了什么作用?
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引用次数: 0
Interpreting Prediction Market Prices 解读预测市场价格
Pub Date : 2017-01-23 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2815131
Jared Williams
Prediction market prices are often used as estimates of the probability of outcomes in future elections and referendums. I argue that this practice is often flawed, and I develop a model that empiricists can use to partially identify probabilities from prediction market prices. In the special case of log utility, election outcome probabilities can be fully (point) identified by a simple type of futures contract that is not commonly used in practice. Prediction markets are also used to examine whether stock market valuations would be higher under one election outcome than the other. I show that this question cannot be answered without assuming investors' higher-order beliefs are correct. In the case of the 2016 US presidential election, my model suggests that investors had incorrect higher-order beliefs, and that these incorrect higher-order beliefs affected the aggregate value of the S&P 500 by approximately $400 billion, or 2% of its aggregate value.
预测市场价格经常被用来估计未来选举和公投结果的可能性。我认为这种做法往往是有缺陷的,我开发了一个模型,经验主义者可以用它来部分地从预测市场价格中识别概率。在log效用的特殊情况下,选举结果的概率可以通过一种简单的期货合约来完全(点)确定,而这种期货合约在实践中并不常用。预测市场也被用来检验股市估值是否会在某一选举结果下高于另一选举结果。我认为,如果不假设投资者的高阶信念是正确的,这个问题就无法回答。以2016年美国总统大选为例,我的模型表明,投资者有不正确的高阶信念,而这些不正确的高阶信念影响了标准普尔500指数的总价值约4000亿美元,占其总价值的2%。
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引用次数: 8
期刊
PSN: Econometrics
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