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Stable Group Activity Selection from Ordinal Preferences 基于顺序偏好的稳定群体活动选择
Pub Date : 2016-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2906360
Andreas Darmann
In several situations agents need to be assigned to activities on basis of their preferences, and each agent can take part in at most one activity. Often, the preferences of the agents do not depend only on the activity itself but also on the number of participants in the respective activity. In the setting we consider, the agents hence have preferences over pairs "(activity, group size)" including the possibility "do nothing"; in this work, these preferences are assumed to be strict orders. The task will be to find stable assignments of agents to activities, for different concepts of stability such as Nash or core stability, and Pareto optimal assignments respectively. In this respect, particular focus is laid on two natural special cases of agents' preferences inherent in the considered model.
在一些情况下,需要根据代理的偏好将其分配给活动,并且每个代理最多只能参加一个活动。通常,代理人的偏好不仅取决于活动本身,还取决于各自活动的参与者数量。在我们考虑的设置中,代理人因此对“(活动,群体规模)”有偏好,包括“什么都不做”的可能性;在这项工作中,这些偏好被假定为严格的顺序。对于不同的稳定性概念,如纳什或核心稳定性,以及帕累托最优分配,任务将是找到智能体对活动的稳定分配。在这方面,特别关注的是被考虑模型中固有的代理人偏好的两个自然特殊情况。
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引用次数: 1
A One-Covariate at a Time, Multiple Testing Approach to Variable Selection in High-Dimensional Linear Regression Models 高维线性回归模型中变量选择的单协变量多重检验方法
Pub Date : 2016-11-01 DOI: 10.24149/GWP290
A. Chudik, G. Kapetanios, M. Pesaran
Model specification and selection are recurring themes in econometric analysis. Both topics become considerably more complicated in the case of large-dimensional data sets where the set of specification possibilities can become quite large. In the context of linear regression models, penalised regression has become the de facto benchmark technique used to trade off parsimony and fit when the number of possible covariates is large, often much larger than the number of available observations. However, issues such as the choice of a penalty function and tuning parameters associated with the use of penalized regressions remain contentious. In this paper, we provide an alternative approach that considers the statistical significance of the individual covariates one at a time, whilst taking full account of the multiple testing nature of the inferential problem involved. We refer to the proposed method as One Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing (OCMT) procedure. The OCMT provides an alternative to penalised regression methods: It is based on statistical inference and is therefore easier to interpret and relate to the classical statistical analysis, it allows working under more general assumptions, it is faster, and performs well in small samples for almost all of the different sets of experiments considered in this paper. We provide extensive theoretical and Monte Carlo results in support of adding the proposed OCMT model selection procedure to the toolbox of applied researchers. The usefulness of OCMT is also illustrated by an empirical application to forecasting U.S. output growth and inflation.
模型规范和选择是计量经济学分析中反复出现的主题。在大维度数据集的情况下,这两个主题都变得相当复杂,其中规范可能性的集合可能变得非常大。在线性回归模型的背景下,惩罚回归已经成为事实上的基准技术,用于在可能的协变量数量很大时权衡简约性和拟合性,通常比可用的观测值数量大得多。然而,诸如惩罚函数的选择和与惩罚回归的使用相关的调优参数等问题仍然存在争议。在本文中,我们提供了一种替代方法,该方法一次考虑单个协变量的统计显著性,同时充分考虑所涉及的推理问题的多重测试性质。我们将提出的方法称为一次一个协变量多重测试(OCMT)过程。OCMT提供了惩罚回归方法的另一种选择:它基于统计推断,因此更容易解释并与经典统计分析相关,它允许在更一般的假设下工作,它更快,并且在小样本中表现良好,几乎适用于本文中考虑的所有不同的实验集。我们提供了广泛的理论和蒙特卡罗结果,以支持将提出的OCMT模型选择过程添加到应用研究人员的工具箱中。OCMT的有用性也通过预测美国产出增长和通货膨胀的实证应用得到说明。
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引用次数: 44
Exclusion Bias in the Estimation of Peer Effects 同伴效应估计中的排除偏倚
Pub Date : 2016-08-01 DOI: 10.3386/W22565
Bet Caeyers, M. Fafchamps
We formalize a noted [Guryan et al., 2009] but unexplored source of bias in peer effect estimation, arising because people cannot be their own peer. We derive, for linear-in-means models with non-overlapping peer groups, an exact formula of the bias in a test of random peer assignment. We demonstrate that, when estimating endogenous peer effects, the negative exclusion bias dominates the positive reflection bias when the true peer effect is small. We discuss conditions under which exclusion bias is aggravated by adding cluster fixed effects. By imposing restrictions on the error term, we show how to consistently estimate, without the need for instruments, all the structural parameters of an endogenous peer effect model with an arbitrary peer-group or network structure. We show that, under certain conditions, 2SLS do not suffer from exclusion bias. This may explain the counter-intuitive observation that OLS estimates of peer effects are often larger than their 2SLS counterpart.Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.
我们形式化了一个著名的[Guryan等人,2009],但在同伴效应估计中未被探索的偏差来源,这是因为人们不能成为他们自己的同伴。对于不重叠同伴组的线性均值模型,我们导出了随机同伴分配检验中偏差的精确公式。研究发现,在估计内生同伴效应时,当真实同伴效应较小时,消极排斥偏见主导积极反思偏见。我们讨论了通过加入聚类固定效应而加剧排除偏差的条件。通过对误差项施加限制,我们展示了如何在不需要仪器的情况下一致地估计具有任意对等组或网络结构的内生对等效应模型的所有结构参数。我们表明,在一定条件下,2SLS不遭受排斥偏见。这也许可以解释反直觉的观察,即OLS对对等效应的估计往往大于其2SLS对应。国家经济研究局工作论文系列的机构订阅者和发展中国家的居民可以在www.nber.org免费下载本文。
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引用次数: 67
Mediation Analysis in Partial Least Squares Path Modeling: Helping Researchers Discuss More Sophisticated Models 偏最小二乘路径建模中的中介分析:帮助研究人员讨论更复杂的模型
Pub Date : 2016-06-03 DOI: 10.1108/IMDS-07-2015-0302
Christian Nitzl, J. Roldán, Gabriel Cepeda
Indirect or mediated effects constitute a type of relationship between constructs that often occurs in partial least squares (PLS) path modeling. Over the past few years, the methods for testing mediation have become more sophisticated. However, many researchers continue to use outdated methods to test mediating effects in PLS, which can lead to erroneous results. One reason for the use of outdated methods or even the lack of their use altogether is that no systematic tutorials on PLS exist that draw on the newest statistical findings. The paper aims to discuss these issues.,This study illustrates the state-of-the-art use of mediation analysis in the context of PLS-structural equation modeling (SEM).,This study facilitates the adoption of modern procedures in PLS-SEM by challenging the conventional approach to mediation analysis and providing more accurate alternatives. In addition, the authors propose a decision tree and classification of mediation effects.,The recommended approach offers a wide range of testing options (e.g. multiple mediators) that go beyond simple mediation analysis alternatives, helping researchers discuss their studies in a more accurate way.
间接或中介效应构成了结构之间的一种关系,这种关系经常出现在偏最小二乘(PLS)路径建模中。在过去几年中,测试中介的方法变得更加复杂。然而,许多研究人员继续使用过时的方法来测试PLS的中介作用,这可能导致错误的结果。使用过时的方法甚至完全不使用这些方法的一个原因是,没有关于PLS的系统教程,利用最新的统计结果。本文旨在探讨这些问题。本研究说明了在pls -结构方程模型(SEM)的背景下使用最先进的中介分析。本研究通过挑战传统的中介分析方法并提供更准确的替代方法,促进了PLS-SEM中现代程序的采用。此外,作者还提出了决策树和中介效应分类。推荐的方法提供了广泛的测试选项(例如多种介质),超越了简单的中介分析替代方案,帮助研究人员以更准确的方式讨论他们的研究。
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引用次数: 1239
Do Criminal Politicians Affect Firm Investment and Value? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Approach 犯罪政客影响企业投资和价值吗?来自回归不连续方法的证据
Pub Date : 2016-05-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2782580
Vikram Nanda, Ankur Pareek
We provide evidence on the effects of criminal/corrupt politicians on firm value and investments. Using a regression discontinuity approach, we focus on close elections to establish a causal link between election of criminal-politicians and firms’ value and investment decisions. We utilize unique datasets on the criminal background of Indian politicians and details on investment projects in their districts. Election of criminal-politicians leads to lower election-period and project-announcement stock-market returns for local private-sector firms. There is sharp decline in total investment by private-sector firms in criminal-politician districts: Interestingly, the decline in private-sector investment is offset by a roughly equivalent increase in investment by state-owned firms. Corrupt politicians are less destructive when the overall corruption in the state is lower and when they belong to a political party that is in power at the state or national level.
我们提供了犯罪/腐败政客对公司价值和投资影响的证据。使用回归不连续方法,我们将重点放在接近的选举上,以建立犯罪政治家的选举与公司价值和投资决策之间的因果关系。我们利用独特的数据集对印度政治家的犯罪背景和详细的投资项目在他们的地区。犯罪政客的当选导致当地私营企业在选举期间和项目宣布后的股市回报率降低。在政治犯罪猖獗的地区,私营企业的总投资急剧下降:有趣的是,私营企业投资的下降被国有企业投资的大致等量增长所抵消。当一个国家的整体腐败程度较低,并且他们所属的政党在州或国家一级掌权时,腐败政客的破坏性较小。
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引用次数: 1
T-Test with Likert Scale Variables 用李克特量表变量进行t检验
Pub Date : 2016-04-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2770035
P. Vieira
Although Likert scale is numeric, it is intrinsically ordinal (1 – Strongly disagree to 5 - Strongly agree). Even ordinal, due to convenience it is usual to use a t-test to evaluate whether two groups are significantly different (testing population mean with unknown variance). In this paper I will investigate if when we have a survey that uses a Likert Scale, it is adequate to use a t-test. I will use bootstrapping by first “imposing” that the population verifies the null hypothesis. I conclude that, the use of the t-test it is valid to compare groups even when the variable is measured a Likert scale and the populations does not have a normal distribution.
虽然李克特量表是数字,但它本质上是有序的(1 -强烈不同意到5 -强烈同意)。即使是有序的,由于方便,通常使用t检验来评估两个组是否显着不同(检验未知方差的总体均值)。在本文中,我将调查,如果我们有一个调查,使用李克特量表,它是足够的使用t检验。我将通过首先“强加”总体验证零假设来使用自举。我的结论是,使用t检验是有效的,即使变量是用李克特量表测量的,而且总体不是正态分布。
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引用次数: 8
Estimation of Spatial Sample Selection Models: A Partial Maximum Likelihood Approach 空间样本选择模型的估计:部分极大似然方法
Pub Date : 2016-03-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2756508
R. Rabovic, P. Čížek
To analyze data obtained by non-random sampling in the presence of cross-sectional dependence, estimation of a sample selection model with a spatial lag of a latent dependent variable or a spatial error in both the selection and outcome equations is considered. Since there is no estimation framework for the spatial lag model and the existing estimators for the spatial error model are either computationally demanding or have poor small sample properties, we suggest to estimate these models by the partial maximum likelihood estimator, following Wang et al. (2013)'s framework for a spatial error probit model. We show that the estimator is consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. To facilitate easy and precise estimation of the variance matrix without requiring the spatial stationarity of errors, we propose the parametric bootstrap method. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the advantages of the estimators.
为了分析存在横截面相关性的非随机抽样获得的数据,考虑了具有潜在因变量的空间滞后或在选择和结果方程中都存在空间误差的样本选择模型的估计。由于空间滞后模型没有估计框架,现有的空间误差模型估计器要么计算量大,要么小样本性质差,我们建议按照Wang等人(2013)的空间误差概率模型框架,通过偏极大似然估计器来估计这些模型。我们证明了估计量是一致且渐近正态分布的。为了在不要求误差空间平稳性的情况下方便准确地估计方差矩阵,我们提出了参数自举法。蒙特卡洛仿真验证了该估计器的优点。
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引用次数: 1
Methods for Nonparametric and Semiparametric Regressions with Endogeneity: A Gentle Guide 具有内生性的非参数和半参数回归方法:一个温和的指南
Pub Date : 2016-03-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2756199
Xiaohong Chen, Y. Qiu
This article reviews recent advances in estimation and inference for nonparametric and semiparametric models with endogeneity. It first describes methods of sieves and penalization for estimating unknown functions identified via conditional moment restrictions. Examples include nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) regression, nonparametric quantile IV regression, and many more semi/nonparametric structural models. Asymptotic properties of the sieve estimators and the sieve Wald, quasi-likelihood ratio hypothesis tests of functionals with nonparametric endogeneity are presented. For sieve NPIV estimation, the rate-adaptive data-driven choices of sieve regularization parameters and the sieve score bootstrap uniform confidence bands are described. Finally, simple sieve variance estimation and overidentification tests for the semiparametric two-step generalized method of moments are reviewed. Monte Carlo examples are also included.
本文综述了具有内生性的非参数和半参数模型的估计和推理的最新进展。首先描述了通过条件矩限制来估计未知函数的筛分和惩罚方法。例子包括非参数工具变量(NPIV)回归,非参数分位数IV回归,以及更多的半/非参数结构模型。给出了非参数内生性泛函的筛估计量和筛Wald、拟似然比假设检验的渐近性质。对于筛分NPIV估计,描述了筛分正则化参数的速率自适应数据驱动选择和筛分自举均匀置信带。最后综述了半参数两步广义矩法的简单筛方差估计和过辨识检验。还包括蒙特卡罗示例。
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引用次数: 27
Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Models for Large Datasets 大型数据集的非平稳动态因子模型
Pub Date : 2016-02-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2741739
M. Barigozzi, Marco Lippi, Matteo Luciani
We study a Large-Dimensional Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Model where (1) the factors Ft are I (1) and singular, that is Ft has dimension r and is driven by q dynamic shocks with q less than r, (2) the idiosyncratic components are either I (0) or I (1). Under these assumption the factors Ft are cointegrated and modeled by a singular Error Correction Model. We provide conditions for consistent estimation, as both the cross-sectional size n, and the time dimension T, go to infinity, of the factors, the loadings, the shocks, the ECM coefficients and therefore the Impulse Response Functions. Finally, the numerical properties of our estimator are explored by means of a MonteCarlo exercise and of a real-data application, in which we study the effects of monetary policy and supply shocks on the US economy.
我们研究了一个大维度非平稳动态因子模型,其中(1)因子Ft为I(1)和奇异,即Ft具有维数r并且由q小于r的q动态冲击驱动,(2)特异成分为I(0)或I(1)。在这些假设下,因子Ft是协整的,并由奇异误差修正模型建模。我们提供了一致估计的条件,当横截面尺寸n和时间维度T趋近于无穷大时,这些因素,载荷,冲击,ECM系数以及脉冲响应函数。最后,我们通过蒙特卡洛练习和实际数据应用探讨了我们的估计器的数值性质,其中我们研究了货币政策和供应冲击对美国经济的影响。
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引用次数: 49
A Correction to 'Generalized Nonparametric Smoothing With Mixed Discrete and Continuous Data' by Li, Simar & Zelenyuk Li, Simar & Zelenyuk对“混合离散和连续数据的广义非参数平滑”的修正
Pub Date : 2016-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2824510
J. Racine
Li & Racine (2004) have proposed a nonparametric kernel-based method for smoothing in the presence of categorical predictors as an alternative to the classical nonparametric approach that splits the data into subsets (‘cells’) defined by the unique combinations of the categorical predictors. Li, Simar & Zelenyuk (2014) present an alternative to Li & Racine’s (2004) method that they claim possesses lower mean square error and generalizes and improves upon the existing approaches. However, these claims do not appear to withstand scrutiny. A number of points need to be brought to the attention of practitioners, and two in particular stand out; a) Li et al.’s (2014) own simulation results reveal that their estimator performs worse than the existing classical ‘split’ estimator and appears to be inadmissible, and b) the claim that Li et al.’s (2014) estimator dominates that of Li & Racine (2004) on mean square error grounds does not appear to be the case. The classical split estimator and that of Li & Racine (2004) are both consistent, and it will be seen that Li & Racine’s (2004) estimator remains the best all around performer. And, as a practical matter, Li et al.’s (2014) estimator is not a feasible alternative in typical settings involving multinomial and multiple categorical predictors.
Li和Racine(2004)提出了一种基于非参数核的方法,用于在存在分类预测因子的情况下进行平滑,作为经典非参数方法的替代方法,该方法将数据分成由分类预测因子的唯一组合定义的子集(“单元格”)。Li, Simar和Zelenyuk(2014)提出了Li和Racine(2004)方法的替代方法,他们声称该方法具有更低的均方误差,并对现有方法进行了推广和改进。然而,这些说法似乎经不起推敲。有几点需要引起实践者的注意,其中有两点特别突出;a) Li et al.(2014)自己的模拟结果显示,他们的估计器比现有的经典“分裂”估计器性能更差,似乎是不可接受的,b) Li et al.(2014)的估计器在均方误差基础上优于Li & Racine(2004)的估计器的说法似乎并非如此。经典的分裂估计器和Li & Racine(2004)的估计器都是一致的,并且可以看到Li & Racine(2004)的估计器仍然是最好的全面执行器。而且,作为一个实际问题,Li等人(2014)的估计器在涉及多项和多个分类预测器的典型设置中并不是一个可行的选择。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
PSN: Econometrics
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