首页 > 最新文献

PSN: Econometrics最新文献

英文 中文
Constructing a Realized DCC Model with Measurement Errors 基于测量误差的DCC实现模型的构建
Pub Date : 2021-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3817246
Hideto Shigemoto, Takayuki Morimoto
We propose novel conditional autoregressive Wishart (CAW) models for high-dimensional realized covariance matrices of asset returns. We incorporate measurement errors into realized variance dynamics of Realized Dynamic Conditional Correlation (Re-DCC) model. It is well known that the measurement errors make the realized volatility less persistent than the latent volatility process. Therefore, by introducing measurement errors into realized volatility, the persistence of the realized volatility based on the magnitude of the corresponding measurement errors can be incorporated into the multivariate model. Our empirical analysis performs in- and out-of-sample evaluations for 100 stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange from January 1, 2014, through December 31, 2020. Our model based on logarithmic realized volatility shows the best forecast performance across test periods and loss functions.
针对资产收益的高维已实现协方差矩阵,提出了一种新的条件自回归Wishart (CAW)模型。我们将测量误差纳入已实现动态条件相关(Re-DCC)模型的已实现方差动态中。众所周知,测量误差使已实现的波动率比潜在波动率过程持续时间短。因此,通过在已实现波动率中引入测量误差,可以将基于相应测量误差大小的已实现波动率的持续时间纳入多元模型。我们的实证分析对2014年1月1日至2020年12月31日期间东京证券交易所的100只股票进行了样本内和样本外评估。基于对数已实现波动率的模型显示出跨测试周期和损失函数的最佳预测性能。
{"title":"Constructing a Realized DCC Model with Measurement Errors","authors":"Hideto Shigemoto, Takayuki Morimoto","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3817246","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3817246","url":null,"abstract":"We propose novel conditional autoregressive Wishart (CAW) models for high-dimensional realized covariance matrices of asset returns. We incorporate measurement errors into realized variance dynamics of Realized Dynamic Conditional Correlation (Re-DCC) model. It is well known that the measurement errors make the realized volatility less persistent than the latent volatility process. Therefore, by introducing measurement errors into realized volatility, the persistence of the realized volatility based on the magnitude of the corresponding measurement errors can be incorporated into the multivariate model. Our empirical analysis performs in- and out-of-sample evaluations for 100 stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange from January 1, 2014, through December 31, 2020. Our model based on logarithmic realized volatility shows the best forecast performance across test periods and loss functions.","PeriodicalId":320844,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Econometrics","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123116118","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Định dạng hàm sản xuất CES bằng phương pháp hồi qui phi tuyến tính Bayes (Specifying a CES Production Function Using a Bayesian Non-linear Regression) 利用贝叶斯非线性回归方法对这些生产函数进行格式化。
Pub Date : 2021-03-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3812451
Thach Nguyen Ngoc
Vietnamese Abstract: Đa phần các nghiên cứu tại Việt Nam sử dụng hàm sản xuất Cobb-Douglas và các biến thể của nó như một công cụ trong phân tích và dự báo kinh tế. Dạng hàm này có nhược điểm là các tiền đề của nó quá cứng nhắc mà không phù hợp với hiện thực trong nhiều trường hợp, đặc biệt trong phân tích động thái tăng trưởng kinh tế. Hàm CES (constant elasticity of substitution) với tiền đề linh hoạt hơn, cụ thể là hệ số co giãn giữa vốn và lao động khác một, được sử dụng ngày càng phổ biến. Do vậy, nghiên cứu này được thực hiện nhằm định dạng hàm CES dựa trên dữ liệu của các doanh nghiệp phi tài chính niêm yết trên thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam. Bằng việc sử dụng phương pháp hồi quy phi tuyến tính Bayes thông qua thuật toán lấy mẫu Random-walk Metropolis Hastings (MH), tác giả khám phá rằng, hàm sản xuất được ước lượng cho các doanh nghiệp phi tài chính Việt Nam là dạng hàm CES với hệ số co giãn thay thế giữa vốn và lao động nhỏ hơn một, tức là lao động và vốn bổ sung nhau. Phát hiện này cho thấy nền kinh tế Việt Nam có thế đối diện với đa trạng thái dừng (multiple steady-states) và các bẫy nghèo đói (poverty traps) nên chưa đạt được các khả năng cho tăng trưởng nội sinh (endogenous growth).

English Abstract: Most studies in Vietnam use the Cobb-Douglas production function and its variants as a tool in economic analysis and forecasting. A great disadvantage of this functional form is that its propositions are extremely rigid, which is not in agreement with reality in many cases, especially in analyzing economic dynamics. The CES (constant elasticity of substitution)function with more flexible propositions, namely the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor different from unity, is used more and more popularly. Therefore, this study was conducted to specify a CES function based on data of non-financial businesses listed on Vietnam's stock market. By using a Bayesian non-linear regression through the Random-walk Metropolis Hastings (MH) sampling algorithm, the author finds that the estimated production function for Vietnamese non-financial enterprises is a CES one with the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor smaller than one. This finding shows that Vietnam's economy might face multiple steady-states and poverty traps, so it has not yet reached the possibilities of endogenous growth
越南摘要:越南的大多数研究都使用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数及其变体作为经济分析和预测的工具。这种函数的缺点是,它的前提过于僵化,在许多情况下不符合现实,尤其是在经济增长分析中。这些函数具有更灵活的前提,特别是资本和劳动力之间的弹性系数,正变得越来越普遍。因此,这项研究的目的是根据在越南证券市场上市的非金融企业的数据来定义这些函数。通过使用随机步行大都会黑斯廷斯(MH)算法的非线性贝叶斯回归,作者发现,越南非金融企业的估计生产函数是资本和劳动力之间的替代弹性系数小于1的函数,即劳动力和资本的互补。这一发现表明,越南经济可能面临多重稳态和贫困陷阱,因此无法实现内生增长的潜力。摘要:越南的研究大多使用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数及其变体作为经济分析和预测的工具。这种功能形式的一个很大的缺点是它的命题极其僵硬,在许多情况下与现实不符,尤其是在分析经济动态时。替代弹性是一种具有更灵活命题的固定弹性函数,即资本与劳动力之间的替代弹性不同于统一,其应用越来越广泛。因此,本研究基于在越南股市上市的非金融企业的数据,明确了CES功能。利用贝叶斯非线性回归,通过随机步行都会黑斯廷斯(mh)抽样算法,作者发现越南非金融企业的估计生产函数是资本与劳动力替代弹性小于1的CES函数。这一发现表明,越南经济可能面临多重稳定状态和贫困陷阱,因此尚未达到内生增长的可能性
{"title":"Định dạng hàm sản xuất CES bằng phương pháp hồi qui phi tuyến tính Bayes (Specifying a CES Production Function Using a Bayesian Non-linear Regression)","authors":"Thach Nguyen Ngoc","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3812451","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3812451","url":null,"abstract":"<b>Vietnamese Abstract:</b> Đa phần các nghiên cứu tại Việt Nam sử dụng hàm sản xuất Cobb-Douglas và các biến thể của nó như một công cụ trong phân tích và dự báo kinh tế. Dạng hàm này có nhược điểm là các tiền đề của nó quá cứng nhắc mà không phù hợp với hiện thực trong nhiều trường hợp, đặc biệt trong phân tích động thái tăng trưởng kinh tế. Hàm CES (constant elasticity of substitution) với tiền đề linh hoạt hơn, cụ thể là hệ số co giãn giữa vốn và lao động khác một, được sử dụng ngày càng phổ biến. Do vậy, nghiên cứu này được thực hiện nhằm định dạng hàm CES dựa trên dữ liệu của các doanh nghiệp phi tài chính niêm yết trên thị trường chứng khoán Việt Nam. Bằng việc sử dụng phương pháp hồi quy phi tuyến tính Bayes thông qua thuật toán lấy mẫu Random-walk Metropolis Hastings (MH), tác giả khám phá rằng, hàm sản xuất được ước lượng cho các doanh nghiệp phi tài chính Việt Nam là dạng hàm CES với hệ số co giãn thay thế giữa vốn và lao động nhỏ hơn một, tức là lao động và vốn bổ sung nhau. Phát hiện này cho thấy nền kinh tế Việt Nam có thế đối diện với đa trạng thái dừng (multiple steady-states) và các bẫy nghèo đói (poverty traps) nên chưa đạt được các khả năng cho tăng trưởng nội sinh (endogenous growth).<br><br><b>English Abstract:</b> Most studies in Vietnam use the Cobb-Douglas production function and its variants as a tool in economic analysis and forecasting. A great disadvantage of this functional form is that its propositions are extremely rigid, which is not in agreement with reality in many cases, especially in analyzing economic dynamics. The CES (constant elasticity of substitution)function with more flexible propositions, namely the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor different from unity, is used more and more popularly. Therefore, this study was conducted to specify a CES function based on data of non-financial businesses listed on Vietnam's stock market. By using a Bayesian non-linear regression through the Random-walk Metropolis Hastings (MH) sampling algorithm, the author finds that the estimated production function for Vietnamese non-financial enterprises is a CES one with the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor smaller than one. This finding shows that Vietnam's economy might face multiple steady-states and poverty traps, so it has not yet reached the possibilities of endogenous growth","PeriodicalId":320844,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Econometrics","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123114439","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Distribution of Emails In An Organization As A Proxy for Information Flow 电子邮件在组织中的分布作为信息流的代理
Pub Date : 2021-02-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3776905
D. Lane
The faster an organization is able to make decisions, the better capable an organization it is—but that requires that information transit the organization quicker. If so, organizations should be structured with a form ideally capable of transmitting information. I propose a method for measuring the closeness of a real-world organization to the ideal form.
一个组织做出决策的速度越快,它的能力就越强——但这需要信息在组织中传递得更快。如果是这样,组织的结构应该具有理想的能够传递信息的形式。我提出了一种方法来衡量现实世界的组织与理想形式的接近程度。
{"title":"The Distribution of Emails In An Organization As A Proxy for Information Flow","authors":"D. Lane","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3776905","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3776905","url":null,"abstract":"The faster an organization is able to make decisions, the better capable an organization it is—but that requires that information transit the organization quicker. If so, organizations should be structured with a form ideally capable of transmitting information. I propose a method for measuring the closeness of a real-world organization to the ideal form.","PeriodicalId":320844,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Econometrics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130723327","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Using Monotonicity Restrictions to Identify Models with Partially Latent Covariates 用单调性约束识别部分隐协变量模型
Pub Date : 2021-01-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3765884
Minji Bang, Wayne Yuan Gao, Andrew Postlewaite, Holger Sieg
This paper develops a new method for identifying econometric models with partially latent covariates. Such data structures arise naturally in industrial organization and labor economics settings where data are collected using an "input-based sampling" strategy, e.g., if the sampling unit is one of multiple labor input factors. We show that the latent covariates can be nonparametrically identified, if they are functions of a common shock satisfying some plausible monotonicity assumptions. With the latent covariates identified, semiparametric estimation of the outcome equation proceeds within a standard IV framework that accounts for the endogeneity of the covariates. We illustrate the usefulness of our method using two applications. The first focuses on pharmacies: we find that production function differences between chains and independent pharmacies may partially explain the observed transformation of the industry structure. Our second application investigates education achievement functions and illustrates important differences in child investments between married and divorced couples.
本文提出了一种识别具有部分潜协变量的计量经济模型的新方法。这种数据结构在产业组织和劳动经济学环境中自然出现,其中使用“基于投入的抽样”策略收集数据,例如,如果抽样单位是多个劳动投入因素之一。我们证明了潜协变量可以被非参数识别,如果它们是一个共同冲击的函数,满足一些似是而非的单调性假设。随着潜在协变量的识别,结果方程的半参数估计在一个标准的IV框架内进行,该框架考虑了协变量的内性。我们用两个应用程序来说明我们的方法的有效性。第一个重点是药店:我们发现连锁药店和独立药店之间的生产函数差异可以部分解释我们观察到的行业结构转变。我们的第二个应用调查了教育成就函数,并说明了已婚和离婚夫妇在子女投资方面的重要差异。
{"title":"Using Monotonicity Restrictions to Identify Models with Partially Latent Covariates","authors":"Minji Bang, Wayne Yuan Gao, Andrew Postlewaite, Holger Sieg","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3765884","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3765884","url":null,"abstract":"This paper develops a new method for identifying econometric models with partially latent covariates. Such data structures arise naturally in industrial organization and labor economics settings where data are collected using an \"input-based sampling\" strategy, e.g., if the sampling unit is one of multiple labor input factors. We show that the latent covariates can be nonparametrically identified, if they are functions of a common shock satisfying some plausible monotonicity assumptions. With the latent covariates identified, semiparametric estimation of the outcome equation proceeds within a standard IV framework that accounts for the endogeneity of the covariates. We illustrate the usefulness of our method using two applications. The first focuses on pharmacies: we find that production function differences between chains and independent pharmacies may partially explain the observed transformation of the industry structure. Our second application investigates education achievement functions and illustrates important differences in child investments between married and divorced couples.","PeriodicalId":320844,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Econometrics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125893785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Political Parties as Drivers of U.S. Polarization: 1927-2018 政党是美国两极分化的驱动因素:1927-2018
Pub Date : 2020-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3803669
N. Canen, Chad Kendall, Francesco Trebbi
The current polarization of elites in the U.S., particularly in Congress, is frequently ascribed to the emergence of cohorts of ideologically extreme legislators replacing moderate ones. Politicians, however, do not operate as isolated agents, driven solely by their preferences. They act within organized parties, whose leaders exert control over the rank-and-file, directing support for and against policies. This paper shows that the omission of party discipline as a driver of political polarization is consequential for our understanding of this phenomenon. We present a multi-dimensional voting model and identification strategy designed to decouple the ideological preferences of lawmakers from the control exerted by their party leadership. Applying this structural framework to the U.S. Congress between 1927-2018, we find that the influence of leaders over their rank-and-file has been a growing driver of polarization in voting, particularly since the 1970s. In 2018, party discipline accounts for around 65% of the polarization in roll call voting. Our findings qualify the interpretation of – and in some cases subvert – a number of empirical claims in the literature that measures polarization with models that lack a formal role for party organizations.
目前美国精英阶层的两极分化,尤其是在国会,经常被归咎于意识形态极端的立法者取代了温和派的出现。然而,政治家们并不是作为孤立的代理人,仅仅由他们的偏好所驱动。他们在有组织的政党内活动,这些政党的领导人对普通民众施加控制,指导支持或反对政策。本文表明,政党纪律的缺失作为政治两极分化的驱动因素,对我们理解这一现象具有重要意义。我们提出了一个多维投票模型和识别策略,旨在将立法者的意识形态偏好与其政党领导层施加的控制分离开来。将这一结构框架应用于1927年至2018年的美国国会,我们发现,领导人对普通民众的影响日益成为投票两极分化的驱动因素,尤其是自20世纪70年代以来。2018年,在唱名投票中,党的纪律约占两极分化的65%。我们的研究结果证实了——在某些情况下颠覆了——文献中一些实证观点的解释,这些观点用缺乏党组织正式角色的模型来衡量两极分化。
{"title":"Political Parties as Drivers of U.S. Polarization: 1927-2018","authors":"N. Canen, Chad Kendall, Francesco Trebbi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3803669","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3803669","url":null,"abstract":"The current polarization of elites in the U.S., particularly in Congress, is frequently ascribed to the emergence of cohorts of ideologically extreme legislators replacing moderate ones. Politicians, however, do not operate as isolated agents, driven solely by their preferences. They act within organized parties, whose leaders exert control over the rank-and-file, directing support for and against policies. This paper shows that the omission of party discipline as a driver of political polarization is consequential for our understanding of this phenomenon. We present a multi-dimensional voting model and identification strategy designed to decouple the ideological preferences of lawmakers from the control exerted by their party leadership. Applying this structural framework to the U.S. Congress between 1927-2018, we find that the influence of leaders over their rank-and-file has been a growing driver of polarization in voting, particularly since the 1970s. In 2018, party discipline accounts for around 65% of the polarization in roll call voting. Our findings qualify the interpretation of – and in some cases subvert – a number of empirical claims in the literature that measures polarization with models that lack a formal role for party organizations.","PeriodicalId":320844,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Econometrics","volume":"76 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132556613","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 10
Recent Developments on Factor Models and its Applications in Econometric Learning 因子模型及其在计量经济学学习中的应用研究进展
Pub Date : 2020-09-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3695658
Jianqing Fan, Kunpeng Li, Yuan Liao
This paper provides a selective overview on the recent development of factor models and their applications in econometric learning. We focus on the perspective of the low-rank structure of factor models, and particularly draws attentions to estimating the model from the low-rank recovery point of view. The survey mainly consists of three parts: the first part is a review on new factor estimations based on modern techniques on recovering low-rank structures of high-dimensional models. The second part discusses statistical inferences of several factor-augmented models and applications in statistical learning models. The final part summarizes new developments dealing with unbalanced panels from the matrix completion perspective.
本文对因子模型的最新发展及其在计量经济学学习中的应用进行了综述。重点从因子模型的低秩结构角度出发,着重从低秩恢复角度对模型进行估计。全文主要包括三个部分:第一部分综述了基于现代技术的高维模型低秩结构恢复新因子估计。第二部分讨论了几种因素增强模型的统计推断及其在统计学习模型中的应用。最后部分从矩阵补全的角度总结了处理不平衡面板的新进展。
{"title":"Recent Developments on Factor Models and its Applications in Econometric Learning","authors":"Jianqing Fan, Kunpeng Li, Yuan Liao","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3695658","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3695658","url":null,"abstract":"This paper provides a selective overview on the recent development of factor models and their applications in econometric learning. We focus on the perspective of the low-rank structure of factor models, and particularly draws attentions to estimating the model from the low-rank recovery point of view. The survey mainly consists of three parts: the first part is a review on new factor estimations based on modern techniques on recovering low-rank structures of high-dimensional models. The second part discusses statistical inferences of several factor-augmented models and applications in statistical learning models. The final part summarizes new developments dealing with unbalanced panels from the matrix completion perspective.<br>","PeriodicalId":320844,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Econometrics","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123801273","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 4
Multiple Chains Hidden Markov Models for Bivariate Dynamical Systems 二元动力系统的多链隐马尔可夫模型
Pub Date : 2020-07-28 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3662346
Leopoldo Catania
We present a new modelling framework for the bi-variate hidden Markov model. The proposed specification is composed by five latent Markovian chains which drive the evolution of the parameters of a bi-variate Gaussian distribution. The maximum likelihood estimator is computed via an expectation conditional maximization algorithm with closed form conditional maximization steps, specifically developed for our model. Identification of model parameters, as well as consistency and asymptotic Normality of the maximum likelihood estimator are discussed. Finite sample properties of the estimator are investigated in an extensive simulation study. An empirical application with the bi-variate series of US stocks and bond returns illustrates the benefits of the new specification with respect to the standard hidden Markov model.
提出了一种新的双变量隐马尔可夫模型的建模框架。提出的规范由五个潜在的马尔可夫链组成,它们驱动双变量高斯分布参数的演化。最大似然估计量是通过期望条件最大化算法计算的,该算法具有封闭形式的条件最大化步骤,专门为我们的模型开发。讨论了模型参数的辨识,极大似然估计量的相合性和渐近正态性。对该估计器的有限样本性质进行了广泛的仿真研究。美国股票和债券收益的双变量序列的经验应用说明了新规范相对于标准隐马尔可夫模型的好处。
{"title":"Multiple Chains Hidden Markov Models for Bivariate Dynamical Systems","authors":"Leopoldo Catania","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3662346","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3662346","url":null,"abstract":"We present a new modelling framework for the bi-variate hidden Markov model. The proposed specification is composed by five latent Markovian chains which drive the evolution of the parameters of a bi-variate Gaussian distribution. The maximum likelihood estimator is computed via an expectation conditional maximization algorithm with closed form conditional maximization steps, specifically developed for our model. Identification of model parameters, as well as consistency and asymptotic Normality of the maximum likelihood estimator are discussed. Finite sample properties of the estimator are investigated in an extensive simulation study. An empirical application with the bi-variate series of US stocks and bond returns illustrates the benefits of the new specification with respect to the standard hidden Markov model.","PeriodicalId":320844,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Econometrics","volume":"29 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129600738","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
A Practical Guide to Counterfactual Estimators for Causal Inference with Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data 用时间序列横截面数据进行因果推理的反事实估计的实用指南
Pub Date : 2020-06-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3555463
Licheng Liu, Ye Wang, Yiqing Xu
This paper introduces a unified framework of counterfactual estimation for time-series cross-sectional data, which estimates the average treatment effect on the treated by directly imputing treated counterfactuals. Its special cases include several newly developed methods, such as the fixed effects counterfactual estimator, interactive fixed effects counterfactual estimator, and matrix completion estimator. These estimators provide more reliable causal estimates than conventional two-way fixed effects models when the treatment effects are heterogeneous or unobserved time-varying confounders exist. Under this framework, we propose two sets of diagnostic tests, tests for (no) pre-trend and placebo tests, accompanied by visualization tools, to help researchers gauge the validity of the no-time-varying-confounder assumption. We illustrate these methods with two political economy examples and develop an open-source package, fect, in both R and Stata to facilitate implementation.
本文介绍了一个统一的时间序列横截面数据反事实估计框架,该框架通过直接输入处理过的反事实来估计对被处理对象的平均处理效果。它的特殊情况包括几种新发展的方法,如固定效应反事实估计法、交互固定效应反事实估计法和矩阵补全估计法。当治疗效果是异质的或存在未观察到的时变混杂因素时,这些估计器比传统的双向固定效应模型提供更可靠的因果估计。在此框架下,我们提出了两套诊断测试,即(无)趋势前测试和安慰剂测试,并辅以可视化工具,以帮助研究人员衡量无时变混杂因素假设的有效性。我们用两个政治经济学的例子来说明这些方法,并在R和Stata中开发了一个开源包effect,以促进实现。
{"title":"A Practical Guide to Counterfactual Estimators for Causal Inference with Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data","authors":"Licheng Liu, Ye Wang, Yiqing Xu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3555463","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3555463","url":null,"abstract":"This paper introduces a unified framework of counterfactual estimation for time-series cross-sectional data, which estimates the average treatment effect on the treated by directly imputing treated counterfactuals. Its special cases include several newly developed methods, such as the fixed effects counterfactual estimator, interactive fixed effects counterfactual estimator, and matrix completion estimator. These estimators provide more reliable causal estimates than conventional two-way fixed effects models when the treatment effects are heterogeneous or unobserved time-varying confounders exist. Under this framework, we propose two sets of diagnostic tests, tests for (no) pre-trend and placebo tests, accompanied by visualization tools, to help researchers gauge the validity of the no-time-varying-confounder assumption. We illustrate these methods with two political economy examples and develop an open-source package, fect, in both R and Stata to facilitate implementation.","PeriodicalId":320844,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Econometrics","volume":"112 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115954303","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 93
Simultaneous Inference of the Partially Linear Model with a Multivariate Unknown Function 多元未知函数部分线性模型的同时推理
Pub Date : 2020-05-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3656321
Kun-Ho Kim, Shih-Kang Chao, W. Härdle
Abstract In this paper, we conduct simultaneous inference of the non-parametric part of a partially linear model when the non-parametric component is a multivariate unknown function. Based on semi-parametric estimates of the model, we construct a simultaneous confidence region of the multivariate function for simultaneous inference. The developed methodology is applied to perform simultaneous inference for the U.S. gasoline demand where the income and price variables are contaminated by Berkson errors. The empirical results strongly suggest that the linearity of the U . S . gasoline demand is rejected. The results are also used to propose an alternative form for the demand.
摘要本文研究了当非参数部分为多元未知函数时,对部分线性模型的非参数部分进行同步推理。基于模型的半参数估计,我们构造了多元函数的同时置信区域,用于同时推理。所开发的方法被应用于对美国汽油需求进行同步推断,其中收入和价格变量受到伯克森误差的污染。实证结果强烈表明,美国的线性。年代。汽油需求被拒绝。结果也被用来提出需求的另一种形式。
{"title":"Simultaneous Inference of the Partially Linear Model with a Multivariate Unknown Function","authors":"Kun-Ho Kim, Shih-Kang Chao, W. Härdle","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3656321","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3656321","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In this paper, we conduct simultaneous inference of the non-parametric part of a partially linear model when the non-parametric component is a multivariate unknown function. Based on semi-parametric estimates of the model, we construct a simultaneous confidence region of the multivariate function for simultaneous inference. The developed methodology is applied to perform simultaneous inference for the U.S. gasoline demand where the income and price variables are contaminated by Berkson errors. The empirical results strongly suggest that the linearity of the U . S . gasoline demand is rejected. The results are also used to propose an alternative form for the demand.","PeriodicalId":320844,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Econometrics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127976599","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
A Search Model of Statistical Discrimination 统计歧视的搜索模型
Pub Date : 2020-04-14 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3575199
Jiadong Gu, P. Norman
We offer a search-theoretic model of statistical discrimination, in which firms treat identical groups unequally based on their occupational choices. The model admits symmetric equilibria in which the group characteristic is ignored, but also asymmetric equilibria in which a group is statistically discriminated against, even when symmetric equilibria are unique. Moreover, a robust possibility is that symmetric equilibria become unstable when the group characteristic is introduced. Unlike most previous literature, our model can justify affirmative action since it eliminates asymmetric equilibria without distorting incentives.
我们提供了一个统计歧视的搜索理论模型,在这个模型中,公司根据他们的职业选择不平等地对待相同的群体。该模型允许忽略群体特征的对称均衡,但也允许在统计上歧视群体的不对称均衡,即使对称均衡是唯一的。此外,当引入群特征时,对称均衡有可能变得不稳定。与之前的大多数文献不同,我们的模型可以为平权行动辩护,因为它在不扭曲激励的情况下消除了不对称均衡。
{"title":"A Search Model of Statistical Discrimination","authors":"Jiadong Gu, P. Norman","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3575199","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3575199","url":null,"abstract":"We offer a search-theoretic model of statistical discrimination, in which firms treat identical groups unequally based on their occupational choices. The model admits symmetric equilibria in which the group characteristic is ignored, but also asymmetric equilibria in which a group is statistically discriminated against, even when symmetric equilibria are unique. Moreover, a robust possibility is that symmetric equilibria become unstable when the group characteristic is introduced. Unlike most previous literature, our model can justify affirmative action since it eliminates asymmetric equilibria without distorting incentives.","PeriodicalId":320844,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Econometrics","volume":"189 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-04-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121322864","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
期刊
PSN: Econometrics
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1