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Measuring Technological Innovation Over the Long Run 长期衡量技术创新
Pub Date : 2018-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3279254
B. Kelly, D. Papanikolaou, Amit Seru, Matt Taddy
We use textual analysis of high-dimensional data from patent documents to create new indicators of technological innovation. We identify significant patents based on textual similarity of a given patent to previous and subsequent work: these patents are distinct from previous work but are related to subsequent innovations. Our measure of patent significance is predictive of future citations and correlates strongly with measures of market value. We identify breakthrough innovations as the most significant patents – those in the right tail of our measure – to construct indices of technological change at the aggregate, sectoral, and firm level. Our technology indices span two centuries (1840-2010) and cover innovation by private and public firms, as well as non-profit organizations and the US government. These indices capture the evolution of technological waves over a long time span and are strong predictors of productivity at the aggregate and sectoral level.
我们利用对专利文件中高维数据的文本分析来创建新的技术创新指标。我们根据某项专利与之前和之后工作的文本相似性来识别重要专利:这些专利不同于之前的工作,但与之后的创新相关。我们对专利重要性的衡量标准可以预测未来的引用情况,并与市场价值的衡量标准密切相关。我们将突破性创新确定为最重要的专利--那些处于我们衡量标准右尾部的专利--从而构建了总体、部门和公司层面的技术变化指数。我们的技术指数跨越了两个世纪(1840-2010 年),涵盖了私营和公营企业以及非营利组织和美国政府的创新。这些指数捕捉到了技术浪潮在漫长时间跨度内的演变,是总体和部门层面生产率的有力预测指标。
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引用次数: 174
Minding Your Ps and Qs: Going from Micro to Macro in Measuring Prices and Quantities 注意你的问题:从微观到宏观测量价格和数量
Pub Date : 2018-10-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3318626
Gabriel Ehrlich, J. Haltiwanger, Ron S. Jarmin, David Johnson, M. Shapiro
Key macro indicators such as output, productivity, and inflation are based on a complex system across multiple statistical agencies using different samples and levels of aggregation. The Census Bureau collects nominal sales, the Bureau of Labor Statistics collects prices, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis constructs nominal and real GDP using these data and other sources. The price and quantity data are integrated at a high level of aggregation. This paper explores alternative methods for reengineering key national output and price indices using item-level data. Such reengineering offers the promise of greatly improved key economic indicators along many dimensions.
关键的宏观指标,如产出、生产率和通货膨胀,是基于一个复杂的系统,跨多个统计机构使用不同的样本和汇总水平。人口普查局收集名义销售额,劳工统计局收集价格,经济分析局使用这些数据和其他来源构建名义和实际GDP。价格和数量数据在一个较高的聚合水平上进行了整合。本文探讨了利用项目级数据重构关键国家产出和价格指数的替代方法。这种重组有望在许多方面大大改善关键经济指标。
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引用次数: 6
The Distributional Effects of Trade: Theory and Evidence from the United States 贸易的分配效应:来自美国的理论和证据
Pub Date : 2018-10-06 DOI: 10.3386/W28957
K. Borusyak, Xavier Jaravel
How much do consumption patterns matter for the impact of international trade on inequality? In neoclassical trade models, the effects of trade shocks on consumers' purchasing power are governed by the shares of imports in consumer expenditures, under no parametric assumptions on preferences and technology. This paper provides in-depth measurement of import shares across the income distribution in the United States, using new datasets linking expenditure and customs microdata. Contrary to common wisdom, we find that import shares are flat throughout the income distribution: the purchasing-power gains from lower trade costs are distributionally neutral. Accounting for changes in wages in addition to prices in a unified nonparametric framework, we find substantial distributional effects that arise within, but not across, income and education groups. There is little impact of a fall in trade costs on inequality, even though trade shocks generate winners and losers at all income levels, via wage changes. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.
消费模式对国际贸易对不平等的影响有多大影响?在新古典贸易模型中,在没有偏好和技术参数假设的情况下,贸易冲击对消费者购买力的影响取决于进口在消费者支出中的份额。本文使用将支出和海关微观数据联系起来的新数据集,对美国收入分配中的进口份额进行了深入衡量。与普遍看法相反,我们发现进口份额在整个收入分配中是持平的:较低贸易成本带来的购买力增长在分配上是中性的。在统一的非参数框架中考虑工资和价格的变化,我们发现收入和教育群体内部(而不是跨群体)产生了实质性的分配效应。贸易成本下降对不平等几乎没有影响,尽管贸易冲击会通过工资变化在所有收入水平上产生赢家和输家。国家经济研究局工作论文系列的机构订阅者和发展中国家的居民可以在www.nber.org免费下载本文。
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引用次数: 47
An Economist's Guide to Climate Change Science 《经济学家气候变化科学指南》
Pub Date : 2018-10-01 DOI: 10.1257/JEP.32.4.3
S. Hsiang, R. Kopp
This article provides a brief introduction to the physical science of climate change, aimed towards economists. We begin by describing the physics that controls global climate, how scientists measure and model the climate system, and the magnitude of human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide. We then summarize many of the climatic changes of interest to economists that have been documented and that are projected in the future. We conclude by highlighting some key areas in which economists are in a unique position to help climate science advance. An important message from this final section, which we believe is deeply underappreciated among economists, is that all climate change forecasts rely heavily and directly on economic forecasts for the world. On timescales of a half-century or longer, the largest source of uncertainty in climate science is not physics, but economics.
这篇文章对气候变化的物理科学作了简要的介绍,目标读者是经济学家。我们首先描述控制全球气候的物理学,科学家如何测量和模拟气候系统,以及人为造成的二氧化碳排放的规模。然后,我们总结了许多经济学家感兴趣的气候变化,这些变化已经被记录下来,并将在未来进行预测。最后,我们强调了经济学家在帮助气候科学进步方面处于独特地位的一些关键领域。最后一部分的一个重要信息是,所有气候变化预测在很大程度上直接依赖于对世界经济的预测,我们认为这一点在经济学家中被严重低估了。在半个世纪或更长的时间尺度上,气候科学中最大的不确定性来源不是物理学,而是经济学。
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引用次数: 96
Work and Value Creation in the Platform Economy 平台经济下的工作与价值创造
Pub Date : 2018-09-09 DOI: 10.1108/S0277-283320190000033003
M. Kenney, J. Zysman
Abstract The emergence of the platform economy is reorganizing work, employment, and value creation. The authors argue that the digital platforms are fracturing work itself as the places and types of work are being reorganized into a myriad of platform organized work arrangements with workplaces being potentially anywhere with Internet connectivity. The authors differ from most traditional narratives that focus solely upon either work displacement, a single type of platform-organized value-creating activity, or David Weil’s concentration solely upon the workplace. The authors recognize that even as some work is replaced, other work is being transformed; new work and old work in new arrangements is being created and recreated. The taxonomy begins with the workers employed directly by the platform and its contractors. The authors then introduce the category, platform-mediated work, which we divide into three groups: marketplaces such as Amazon; in-person service provision such as Uber and Airbnb; and remote service provision such as Upwork. The next category, “platform-mediated content creation,” is complex. The authors identify three groups of activities: consignment content creators that include services such as the app stores, YouTube, and Amazon Self-Publishing; non-platform organization content producers, which refers to the enormous number of workers occupied with creating and maintaining websites; and user-generated content which is the non-compensated value creation that ranges from content uploaded to Facebook, Instagram, etc. to reviews on sites such as Yelp. It is only when work and value creation is considered in all of these platform-based manifestations that we can understand the ultimate dimensions of the platform economy and comprehensively understand its implications for work.
平台经济的出现正在重新组织工作、就业和价值创造。作者认为,数字平台正在分裂工作本身,因为工作地点和工作类型正在被重组成无数的平台组织的工作安排,工作场所可能在任何有互联网连接的地方。作者与大多数传统叙事不同,传统叙事只关注工作位移,单一类型的平台组织的价值创造活动,或者大卫·韦尔只关注工作场所。两位作者认识到,即使一些工作被取代,其他工作也在转变;新的工作和旧的工作在新的安排中创造和再创造。分类从平台及其承包商直接雇用的工人开始。作者随后介绍了“平台中介工作”这一类别,我们将其分为三类:亚马逊(Amazon)等市场;提供上门服务,如Uber和Airbnb;和远程服务提供,如Upwork。下一个类别,“以平台为媒介的内容创作”,则比较复杂。作者确定了三类活动:寄售内容创造者,包括应用商店、YouTube和Amazon Self-Publishing等服务;非平台组织内容生产者,指的是大量从事网站创建和维护的工人;以及用户生成内容,即免费的价值创造,包括上传到Facebook、Instagram等网站的内容,以及Yelp等网站的评论。只有在所有这些基于平台的表现中考虑到工作和价值创造,我们才能理解平台经济的最终维度,并全面理解它对工作的影响。
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引用次数: 54
Economists (and Economics) in Tech Companies 科技公司的经济学家(和经济学)
Pub Date : 2018-09-01 DOI: 10.3386/w25064
S. Athey, Michael Luca
As technology platforms have created new markets and new ways of acquiring information, economists have come to play an increasingly central role in tech companies—tackling problems such as platform design, strategy, pricing, and policy. Over the past five years, hundreds of PhD economists have accepted positions in the technology sector. In this paper, we explore the skills that PhD economists apply in tech companies, the companies that hire them, the types of problems that economists are currently working on, and the areas of academic research that have emerged in relation to these problems.
随着技术平台创造了新的市场和获取信息的新方式,经济学家开始在科技公司中扮演越来越重要的角色——解决平台设计、战略、定价和政策等问题。过去5年里,数百名经济学博士接受了科技行业的职位。在本文中,我们探讨了博士经济学家在科技公司、雇佣他们的公司、经济学家目前正在研究的问题类型,以及与这些问题相关的学术研究领域。
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引用次数: 50
The Insolvency Regime for Large Enterprises in Italy: An Economic and Legal Assessment 意大利大型企业破产制度:经济和法律评估
Pub Date : 2018-09-01 DOI: 10.5089/9781484378427.001
Nazim Belhocine, Daniel Garcia-Macia, José Garrido
The modernization of Italy’s insolvency framework has been the subject of much interest in recent years, related not least to its role in potentially facilitating an efficient allocation of resources. A unique feature of Italy’s insolvency framework is a special regime for large enterprises known as “extraordinary administration”. This paper evaluates the merits of this special regime by assessing its efficacy and success in achieving its stated goals and comparing its features to international standards and best practices. It finds that the special regime tends to impose large costs on creditors and the state. The regime results, in most cases, in the sale of parts of the group, followed by a liquidation phase of the remaining assets which can take longer than the general regime, hindering legal certainty for creditors and more generally economic efficiency, investment and job creation. Based on international best practices and experience, consideration should be given to folding the special regime into the general insolvency regime, possibly with provisions to allow for state intervention in specific well-defined circumstances.
近年来,意大利破产框架的现代化一直是备受关注的主题,尤其是与其在可能促进资源有效配置方面的作用有关。意大利破产框架的一个独特之处是为大型企业设立了一个特殊制度,称为“特别管理”。本文通过评估这一特殊制度在实现其既定目标方面的有效性和成功程度,并将其特点与国际标准和最佳做法进行比较,来评估其优点。研究发现,这种特殊制度往往会给债权人和国家带来巨大的成本。在大多数情况下,该制度的结果是出售集团的部分资产,然后是剩余资产的清算阶段,这可能比一般制度需要更长的时间,阻碍债权人的法律确定性,更普遍的经济效率,投资和创造就业机会。根据国际最佳做法和经验,应考虑将特别制度纳入一般破产制度,并可能规定允许国家在明确界定的具体情况下进行干预。
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引用次数: 2
When Investor Incentives and Consumer Interests Diverge: Private Equity in Higher Education 当投资者激励和消费者利益分化:高等教育中的私募股权
Pub Date : 2018-08-01 DOI: 10.3386/W24976
Charlie Eaton, Sabrina T. Howell, Constantine Yannelis
We study how private equity buyouts create value in higher education, a sector with opaque product quality and intense government subsidy. With novel data on 88 private equity deals involving 994 schools, we show that buyouts lead to higher tuition and per-student debt. Exploiting loan limit increases, we find that private equity-owned schools better capture government aid. After buyouts, we observe lower education inputs, graduation rates, loan repayment rates, and earnings among graduates. Neither school selection nor student body changes fully explain the results. The results indicate that in a subsidized industry, maximizing value may not improve consumer outcomes.Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix, which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online.
我们研究了私人股本收购如何在高等教育领域创造价值,这是一个产品质量不透明、政府补贴密集的行业。我们利用涉及994所学校的88笔私募股权交易的新数据表明,收购导致了更高的学费和每个学生的债务。利用贷款限额的提高,我们发现私人股本拥有的学校更能获得政府援助。在买断之后,我们观察到毕业生的教育投入、毕业率、贷款还款率和收入都降低了。学校选择和学生的变化都不能完全解释这一结果。结果表明,在补贴行业中,价值最大化可能不会改善消费者的结果。作者们提供了一份互联网附录,可以在牛津大学出版社的网站上找到,就在最终发表论文的链接旁边。
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引用次数: 76
Will the U.S. Keep the Best and the Brightest (as Post-Docs)? Career and Location Preferences of Foreign Stem Phds 美国将保留最优秀和最聪明的人(作为博士后)吗?外国Stem博士的职业和地区偏好
Pub Date : 2018-07-01 DOI: 10.3386/w24838
Ina Ganguli, P. Gaulé
We estimate the career and location preferences of students in U.S. doctoral programs in a major STEM field – chemistry. Our analysis is based on novel survey conducted in 2017 of 1,605 current Chemistry doctoral students enrolled in the top 54 U.S. research intensive universities. First, we estimate the career preferences of foreign and U.S. STEM students for different types of post-graduation jobs – postdocs, industry, or teaching positions – using both hypothetical choice methods and more standard Likert measures of preferences for different careers. We find that foreign students are generally more interested in academic careers than U.S. students, even when controlling for ability and comparing students from similar subfields and programs. Next, we estimate students’ location preferences using a hypothetical choice method: we ask respondents to choose between two postdoc job offers, where one offer is in the U.S. and one is abroad. We find that foreign students have a stronger preference for U.S. locations even after controlling for ability and career preferences. Our results suggest the U.S. is managing to retain talented foreign graduate students for postdoc positions.
我们估计了美国博士课程学生在主要STEM领域-化学的职业和地点偏好。我们的分析是基于2017年对1605名就读于美国前54所研究型大学的化学博士生进行的一项新调查。首先,我们使用假设选择方法和更标准的李克特对不同职业偏好的测量方法,估计了外国和美国STEM学生对不同类型的毕业后工作(博士后、工业或教学职位)的职业偏好。我们发现,外国学生通常比美国学生对学术事业更感兴趣,即使在控制能力和比较来自类似子领域和项目的学生时也是如此。接下来,我们使用假设选择方法来估计学生的地点偏好:我们要求受访者在两个博士后工作机会之间做出选择,其中一个在美国,另一个在国外。我们发现,即使在控制了能力和职业偏好之后,外国学生对美国地区的偏好也更强。我们的研究结果表明,美国正在设法留住有才华的外国研究生担任博士后职位。
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引用次数: 7
Some Facts of High-Tech Patenting 高新技术专利的若干事实
Pub Date : 2018-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.3233722
Michael Webb, Nick Short, N. Bloom, J. Lerner
Patenting in software, cloud computing, and artificial intelligence has grown rapidly in recent years. Such patents are acquired primarily by large US technology firms such as IBM, Microsoft, Google, and HP, as well as by Japanese multinationals such as Sony, Canon, and Fujitsu. Chinese patenting in the US is small but growing rapidly, and world-leading for drone technology. Patenting in machine learning has seen exponential growth since 2010, although patenting in neural networks saw a strong burst of activity in the 1990s that has only recently been surpassed. In all technological fields, the number of patents per inventor has declined near-monotonically, except for large increases in inventor productivity in software and semiconductors in the late 1990s. In most high-tech fields, Japan is the only country outside the US with significant US patenting activity; however, whereas Japan played an important role in the burst of neural network patenting in the 1990s, it has not been involved in the current acceleration. Comparing the periods 1970-89 and 2000-15, patenting in the current period has been primarily by entrant assignees, with the exception of neural networks.
近年来,软件、云计算和人工智能领域的专利申请增长迅速。这些专利主要由IBM、微软、谷歌和惠普等大型美国科技公司以及索尼、佳能和富士通等日本跨国公司获得。中国在美国申请的专利数量不多,但增长迅速,在无人机技术方面处于世界领先地位。自2010年以来,机器学习领域的专利申请呈指数级增长,尽管神经网络领域的专利申请在上世纪90年代出现了强劲的爆发,但直到最近才被超越。在所有技术领域,除了软件和半导体领域发明人的生产力在20世纪90年代末大幅提高之外,每个发明人的专利数量几乎是单调下降的。在大多数高科技领域,日本是美国以外唯一拥有大量美国专利活动的国家;然而,尽管日本在20世纪90年代神经网络专利的爆发中发挥了重要作用,但它并没有参与到当前的加速发展中。比较1970- 1989年和2000- 2015年期间,除了神经网络之外,当前时期的专利申请主要由进入者受让人进行。
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引用次数: 36
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