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The Information Pharms Race and Competitive Dynamics of Precision Medicine: Insights from Game Theory 信息制药竞赛和精准医疗的竞争动态:来自博弈论的见解
Pub Date : 2017-11-01 DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226611235.003.0004
E. Berndt, M. Trusheim
Precision medicines inherently fragment treatment populations, generating small-population markets, creating high-priced "niche busters" rather than broadly prescribed "blockbusters". It is plausible to expect that small markets will attract limited entry in which a small number of interdependent differentiated product oligopolists will compete, each possessing market power. Multiple precision medicine market situations now resemble game theory constructs such as the prisoners' dilemma and Bertrand competition. The examples often involve drug developer choices created by setting the cut-off value for the companion diagnostics to define the precision medicine market niches and their payoffs. Precision medicine game situations may also involve payers and patients who attempt to change the game to their advantage or whose induced behaviors alter the payoffs for the developers. The variety of games may predictably array themselves across the lifecycle of each precision medicine indication niche and so may become linked into a sequentially evolving meta-game. We hypothesize that certain precision medicine areas such as inflammatory diseases are becoming complex simultaneous multi-games in which distinct precision medicine niches compete. Those players that learn the most rapidly and apply those learnings the most asymmetrically will be advantaged in this ongoing information pharms race.
精准药物从本质上分裂了治疗人群,产生了人口较少的市场,创造了高价的“利基重磅炸弹”,而不是广泛处方的“重磅炸弹”。我们可以合理地预期,小市场将吸引有限的进入,其中少数相互依赖的差异化产品寡头将竞争,每个寡头都拥有市场力量。现在,多种精准医疗市场情况类似于囚犯困境和伯特兰竞争等博弈论结构。这些例子通常涉及通过设置伴随诊断的临界值来定义精准医疗市场利基及其回报的药物开发人员选择。精准医疗游戏情境还可能涉及付费者和患者,他们试图改变游戏,使之对自己有利,或者他们的诱导行为改变了开发者的收益。各种各样的游戏可能会在每个精准医学适应症的生命周期中进行排列,因此可能会连接到一个顺序发展的元游戏中。我们假设,某些精准医疗领域,如炎症性疾病,正在变得复杂的同时多游戏,其中不同的精准医疗利基竞争。那些学习最快、应用最不对称的玩家将在这场持续的信息竞赛中占据优势。
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引用次数: 5
Who Becomes an Inventor in America? The Importance of Exposure to Innovation 谁在美国成为发明家?接触创新的重要性
Pub Date : 2017-11-01 DOI: 10.3386/W24062
Alex Bell, Raj Chetty, Xavier Jaravel, Neviana Petkova, J. Van Reenen
We characterize the factors that determine who becomes an inventor in America by using de-identified data on 1.2 million inventors from patent records linked to tax records. We establish three sets of results. First, children from high-income (top 1%) families are ten times as likely to become inventors as those from below-median income families. There are similarly large gaps by race and gender. Differences in innate ability, as measured by test scores in early childhood, explain relatively little of these gaps. Second, exposure to innovation during childhood has significant causal effects on children's propensities to become inventors. Growing up in a neighborhood or family with a high innovation rate in a specific technology class leads to a higher probability of patenting in exactly the same technology class. These exposure effects are gender-specific: girls are more likely to become inventors in a particular technology class if they grow up in an area with more female inventors in that technology class. Third, the financial returns to inventions are extremely skewed and highly correlated with their scientific impact, as measured by citations. Consistent with the importance of exposure effects and contrary to standard models of career selection, women and disadvantaged youth are as under-represented among high-impact inventors as they are among inventors as a whole. We develop a simple model of inventors' careers that matches these empirical results. The model implies that increasing exposure to innovation in childhood may have larger impacts on innovation than increasing the financial incentives to innovate, for instance by reducing tax rates. In particular, there are many "lost Einsteins" - individuals who would have had highly impactful inventions had they been exposed to innovation.
我们通过使用与税收记录相关的专利记录中120万名发明家的去识别数据,描述了决定谁在美国成为发明家的因素。我们建立了三组结果。首先,来自高收入(前1%)家庭的孩子成为发明家的可能性是来自中低收入家庭的孩子的10倍。种族和性别之间也存在同样巨大的差距。以儿童早期的测试成绩衡量的先天能力差异,对这些差距的解释相对较少。第二,儿童时期接触创新对儿童成为发明家的倾向有显著的因果影响。在某个特定技术类别的创新率较高的社区或家庭中长大,会导致在同一技术类别申请专利的可能性更高。这些接触效应是有性别差异的:如果女孩成长的地区有更多的女性发明家,她们就更有可能成为某一特定技术班级的发明家。第三,以引用次数衡量,发明的经济回报极不平衡,而且与它们的科学影响高度相关。与曝光效应的重要性相一致,与职业选择的标准模式相反,妇女和弱势青年在高影响力发明家中的代表性不足,就像她们在整个发明家中的代表性不足一样。我们开发了一个简单的发明家职业生涯模型,与这些实证结果相匹配。该模型表明,在儿童时期增加对创新的接触可能比增加对创新的财政激励(例如通过降低税率)产生更大的影响。特别是,有许多“失去的爱因斯坦”——如果他们接触到创新,就会有非常有影响力的发明。
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引用次数: 334
Tax Simplicity and Heterogeneous Learning 税收简洁性和异构学习
Pub Date : 2017-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3132923
P. Aghion, Ufuk Akcigit, M. Lequien, Stefanie Stantcheva
We study how strongly individuals respond to tax simplicity and how they learn about the complexities of the tax system. We focus on the self-employed, who can more easily adjust to tax incentives and whose responses directly stem from their own understanding of the tax system. We use new French tax returns data from 1994 to 2012. France serves as a good quasi-laboratory: it has three fiscal regimes – or modes of taxation – for the self-employed, which differ in their monetary tax incentives and in their tax simplicity. Two key features are that, first, these regimes are subject to eligibility thresholds; we find large excess masses (bunching) right below the latter. Second, the regimes impact different agents heterogeneously and have changed extensively over time. Taken together, these two key elements give us measures of tax responses (the bunching) as well as the variation needed to jointly estimate a value of tax simplicity and taxable income elasticities. They also give us an opportunity to study how individuals learn about and respond over time to changing policy parameters. We estimate a large value for tax simplicity of up to 650 euros per year per individual depending on the regime and activity. We also find sizable costs of tax complexity; agents are not immediately able to understand what the right regime choice is, leave significant money on the table, and learn over time. The cost of complexity is “regressive” in that it affects mostly the uneducated, low income, and low skill agents. Agents who can be viewed as more informed and knowledgeable (e.g., the more educated or high-skilled) are more likely to make the correct regime choice and to learn faster.
我们研究个人对税收简化的反应有多强烈,以及他们如何了解税收制度的复杂性。我们关注的是个体户,他们更容易适应税收优惠,他们的反应直接源于他们自己对税收制度的理解。我们使用的是1994年至2012年新的法国纳税申报表数据。法国是一个很好的准实验室:它有三种针对个体经营者的财政制度——或税收模式,它们在货币税收激励和税收简单性方面各不相同。两个关键特点是,首先,这些制度受到资格门槛的限制;我们在后者的正下方发现了大量的多余质量(聚束)。其次,这些制度对不同药剂的影响是不同的,并且随着时间的推移发生了广泛的变化。总的来说,这两个关键因素为我们提供了税收反应(聚类)以及共同估计税收简单性和应税收入弹性价值所需的变化的措施。它们还为我们提供了一个机会,研究个人如何随着时间的推移了解和应对不断变化的政策参数。我们估计,根据制度和活动,每个人每年最高可达650欧元的税收简化价值。我们还发现了税收复杂性带来的巨大成本;代理人不能立即理解正确的制度选择是什么,留下大量的钱,并随着时间的推移而学习。复杂性的成本是“递减的”,因为它主要影响未受教育的、低收入的和低技能的代理人。被视为更有见识和知识的代理人(例如,受教育程度更高或技能更高的人)更有可能做出正确的制度选择,并且学习得更快。
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引用次数: 41
Household Wealth Trends in the United States, 1962 to 2016: Has Middle Class Wealth Recovered? 1962年至2016年美国家庭财富趋势:中产阶级财富恢复了吗?
Pub Date : 2017-11-01 DOI: 10.3386/W24085
E. Wolff
Asset prices plunged between 2007 and 2010 but then rebounded from 2010 to 2016. The most telling finding is that median wealth plummeted by 44 percent over years 2007 to 2010. The inequality of net worth, after almost two decades of little movement, went up sharply from 2007 to 2010, and relative indebtedness for the middle class expanded. The sharp fall in median net worth and the rise in overall wealth inequality over these years are largely traceable to the high leverage of middle class families and the high share of homes in their portfolio. Mean and median wealth rebounded from 2010 to 2016, by 17 and 28 percent, respectively. While mean wealth surpassed its previous peak in 2007, median wealth was still down by 34 percent. More than 100 percent of the recovery in both was due to a high return on wealth but this factor was offset by negative savings. Relative indebtedness continued to fall for the middle class from 2010 to 2016, and wealth inequality increased somewhat. The racial and ethnic disparity in wealth holdings widened considerably between 2007 and 2016, and the wealth of households under age 45 declined in relative terms.
资产价格在2007年至2010年期间暴跌,但随后在2010年至2016年反弹。最有说服力的发现是,从2007年到2010年,财富中位数暴跌了44%。净资产不平等在经历了近20年的小幅变动后,从2007年到2010年急剧上升,中产阶级的相对负债也在扩大。这些年来,中产阶级净资产中位数的急剧下降和整体财富不平等的加剧,在很大程度上可以追溯到中产阶级家庭的高杠杆率和他们投资组合中住房的高份额。从2010年到2016年,平均财富和中位数财富分别反弹了17%和28%。虽然平均财富超过了2007年的上一个峰值,但财富中位数仍下降了34%。这两个国家的复苏都超过100%是由于财富的高回报,但这一因素被负储蓄抵消了。从2010年到2016年,中产阶级的相对负债继续下降,财富不平等有所加剧。2007年至2016年,财富持有的种族和民族差距大幅扩大,45岁以下家庭的财富相对下降。
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引用次数: 145
Production Flexibility, Misallocation and Total Factor Productivity 生产柔性、错配与全要素生产率
Pub Date : 2017-10-01 DOI: 10.3386/w23970
Burak R. Uras, Ping Wang
Economy-wide institutional deficiencies causing factor misallocation have been emphasized as essential determinants of aggregate TFP differences. This paper argues that production flexibility at the micro-level is an economic characteristic that should be given priority in TFP aggregation exercises. We investigate a heterogeneous firms model with two distinct notions of flexibility: (i) the firm-specific capacity to optimize over a set of production techniques that serve to organize capital and labor; and, (ii) the industry-specific substitutability between efficient units of capital and labor. We show the presence of a strong interaction between "ability to choose techniques" and "input substitutability": high complementarity at the industry-level amplifies imperfections associated with techniques choice at the firm-level. Using the micro-founded structure, we develop measures for factor, output and technique distortions across a distribution of firms and quantify their TFP effects. For a broad range of U.S. manufacturing industry clusters, technique distortions generate more TFP losses than misallocation resulting from capital and output distortions, with larger TFP gains from removing technique distortions in industries that exhibit high degrees of factor complementarity. Our key quantitative results are robust to outliers, production function specification, mismeasurement and parameterization of the model and are strongly present in developing country datasets.
导致要素错配的经济范围内的制度缺陷被强调为总TFP差异的基本决定因素。本文认为,微观层面的生产灵活性是一个经济特征,应优先考虑全要素生产率的累积。我们研究了一个具有两个不同灵活性概念的异质企业模型:(i)企业在一组用于组织资本和劳动力的生产技术上进行优化的特定能力;(2)有效资本和劳动单位之间的行业可替代性。我们发现“技术选择能力”和“投入可替代性”之间存在很强的相互作用:行业层面的高互补性放大了企业层面与技术选择相关的不完善。利用微观基础结构,我们制定了跨企业分布的要素、产出和技术扭曲的措施,并量化了它们的TFP效应。对于广泛的美国制造业集群,技术扭曲造成的TFP损失比资本和产出扭曲造成的配置不当造成的TFP损失更多,在表现出高度要素互补性的行业中,消除技术扭曲会带来更大的TFP收益。我们的关键定量结果对异常值、生产函数规范、错误测量和模型参数化具有鲁棒性,并且在发展中国家数据集中强烈存在。
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引用次数: 7
An Online Appendix to 'Depreciating Licenses' “折旧许可证”的在线附录
Pub Date : 2017-09-08 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3034480
E. Weyl, Anthony Lee Zhang
This is the online appendix for "Depreciating Licenses." The main text can be found here: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2744810
这是“折旧许可证”的在线附录。主要文本可以在这里找到:https://ssrn.com/abstract=2744810
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引用次数: 0
The Investment Behavior of Buyout Fund: Theory and Evidence 收购基金的投资行为:理论与证据
Pub Date : 2017-09-03 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.478061
Alexander Ljungqvist, M. Richardson, Daniel Wolfenzon
We analyze the determinants of buyout funds’ investment decisions. We argue that when there is imperfect competition for private equity funds, the timing of funds’ investment decisions, their risk‐taking behavior, and their subsequent returns depend on changes in the demand for private equity, conditions in the credit market, and fund managers’ ability to influence perceptions of their talent. We investigate these hypotheses using a proprietary dataset of 207 U.S. buyout funds that invested in 1,957 buyout targets over a 30‐year period. Our dataset contains precisely dated cash inflows and outflows in every portfolio company, links every buyout target to an identifiable buyout fund, and is free from reporting and survivor biases. Thus, we are able to characterize every buyout fund's precise investment choices. Our findings are as follows. First, established funds accelerate their investment flows and earn higher returns when investment opportunities improve, competition for deal flow eases, and credit market conditions loosen. Second, the investment behavior of first‐time funds is less sensitive to market conditions. Third, younger funds invest in riskier buyouts, in an effort to establish a track record. Finally, following periods of good performance, funds become more conservative, and this effect is stronger for first‐time funds.
本文分析了并购基金投资决策的决定因素。我们认为,当私募股权基金存在不完全竞争时,基金投资决策的时机、风险承担行为以及随后的回报取决于对私募股权需求的变化、信贷市场的条件以及基金经理影响人们对其才能看法的能力。我们使用207个美国收购基金的专有数据集来调查这些假设,这些基金在30年内投资了1,957个收购目标。我们的数据集包含每个投资组合公司精确标注日期的现金流入和流出,将每个收购目标与可识别的收购基金联系起来,并且不存在报告和幸存者偏见。因此,我们能够描述每个收购基金的精确投资选择。我们的研究结果如下。首先,当投资机会改善、交易流量竞争缓和、信贷市场条件放松时,成熟基金的投资流动会加快,获得更高的回报。其次,首次基金的投资行为对市场状况不太敏感。第三,较年轻的基金投资于风险较高的收购,以建立良好的业绩记录。最后,在业绩良好的时期之后,基金会变得更加保守,这种效应对首次上市的基金更为明显。
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引用次数: 5
Dissertation Executive Summary: Fuel of Interest and Fire of Genius: Essays on the Economic History of Innovation 论文摘要:兴趣的燃料和天才的火焰:创新的经济史论文
Pub Date : 2017-08-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3081168
Michael J. Andrews
In this dissertation, I use historical patent data and natural experiments to show how policies and institutions affect invention. Chapter 1 shows that establishing new colleges causes 33% more patents per year in places that get a college, but few of these additional patents come from the college's graduates. Chapter 2 uses alcohol prohibition to show that informal social interactions are important for invention: shuttering saloons decreased patenting by 15%. The effect is strongest immediately after prohibition begins. Chapter 3 plots demographic trends of inventors; blacks and females are persistently underrepresented. Chapter 4 describes several historical patent datasets in detail.
在本文中,我使用历史专利数据和自然实验来展示政策和制度如何影响发明。第一章表明,在有学院的地方,新学院的建立每年会使专利增加33%,但这些额外的专利很少来自学院的毕业生。第二章用禁酒令来说明非正式的社会交往对发明很重要:关闭酒吧使专利申请减少了15%。禁酒令一开始,其效果就最强。第三章描绘了发明家的人口趋势;黑人和女性的代表性一直不足。第4章详细描述了几个历史专利数据集。
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引用次数: 0
Persistent Blessings of Luck: Theory and an Application to Venture Capital 运气的持续祝福:理论及其在风险投资中的应用
Pub Date : 2017-06-11 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2920918
L. Cong, Yizhou Xiao
Persistent performance in venture capital is routinely interpreted as evidence for skill. We present a dynamic model of delegated investment with endogenous fund heterogeneity and deal flow, which generates performance persistence without skill differences and predicts mean reversion in long-term performance. Investors working with multiple funds use contingent payments and tiered contracts to induce proper project nurturing and managerial effort. Successful funds receive continuation contracts that tolerate investment failure and encourage innovation, and subsequently finance entrepreneurs through a path-dependent assortative matching favoring incumbents. Recent empirical findings corroborate the model’s general implications, and the economic mechanisms are robust to short-term contracting, endogenous bargaining, and double moral hazard issues.
在风险投资领域的持续表现通常被解读为技能的证据。我们提出了一个具有内生基金异质性和交易流的委托投资动态模型,该模型产生了无技能差异的绩效持久性,并预测了长期绩效的均值回归。与多个基金合作的投资者使用或有付款和分层合同来诱导适当的项目培育和管理努力。成功的基金获得延续合同,容忍投资失败并鼓励创新,随后通过有利于现有企业的路径依赖分类匹配为企业家提供资金。最近的实证研究结果证实了该模型的一般含义,并且经济机制对于短期契约、内生议价和双重道德风险问题是稳健的。
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引用次数: 4
Legal Issues for New Ventures: Choice of Lawyer and Choice of Entity 新企业的法律问题:律师的选择与实体的选择
Pub Date : 2017-05-30 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.2974250
S. Sarasvathy, Richard White, M. Ishrat
This note discusses the legal issues entrepreneurs must consider as they form their company as a legal entity. In Q&A format, the note concisely defines the types of entity available and discusses when and how to engage a lawyer. Excerpt UVA-ENT-0072 LEGAL ISSUES FOR NEW VENTURES: CHOICE OF LAWYER AND CHOICE OF ENTITY Introduction Moving a new business from the idea stage to that of legal entity is an exciting step in the entrepreneurial process. In this note, we explore some of the typical and essential questions an entrepreneur might ask during this phase of development. Questions . . .
本文讨论了企业家在将公司作为法人实体成立时必须考虑的法律问题。在问答形式中,说明简明地定义了可用的实体类型,并讨论了何时以及如何聘请律师。新企业的法律问题:律师的选择和实体的选择介绍将新业务从构想阶段转移到法人实体阶段是创业过程中令人兴奋的一步。在这篇文章中,我们探讨了企业家在这个发展阶段可能会问的一些典型和重要的问题。问题……
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引用次数: 0
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Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation Research Paper Series
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